AL Central: Twins, White Sox confound predictions
Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune
Michael Cuddyer and the MInnesota Twins are in hot pursuit of the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central Division.
The Tigers and Indians were supposed to pull away from the pack, but the surprising White Sox and Twins are in the lead.
By JOE CHRISTENSEN, Star Tribune
Last update: July 16, 2008 - 10:29 PM
The American League Central was supposed to be a two-team sprint: Tigers vs. Indians. ¶ But as baseball returns from the All-Star break, it's shaping up as a three-team survival test, with the surprising White Sox and Twins trying to fend off a Tigers team slowly climbing back from a hellish 0-7 start. ¶ Detroit returns to action tonight at Baltimore. The Twins will hold a light workout tonight, but they don't play until Friday, at home against Texas. ¶ Baseball is entering the "second half," but the season is actually 60 percent finished. For a closer look at what to expect over the final 10 1/2 weeks, turn to C5. White Sox (54-40)
What we've learned: GM Kenny Williams isn't perfect, but when he gets it right, look out.
Why they can win it: Gavin Floyd and John Danks are for real, Jose Contreras has risen from the ashes, and the starting pitching staff leads the division with a 3.87 ERA. The bullpen, woeful in 2006 and 2007, leads the AL with a 2.87 ERA, and closer Bobby Jenks is returning from a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury.
Why they could stumble: Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are showing signs of age. The White Sox average 5.8 runs per game at home, and 4.2 runs on the road. All seven of their remaining games with the Twins are at the Metrodome.
Bold prediction: All-Star left fielder Carlos Quentin will come back to Earth, but Jermaine Dye will continue carrying this team.
The pressure's on: manager Ozzie Guillen. Williams loves to deal, but the payroll is over budget, and he has limited prospects to offer. So it's up to the ever-volatile Guillen to maximize this roster's potential.
Twins (53-42, 1 1/2 GB)
What we've learned: They can contend even without Johan Santana and Torii Hunter.
Why they can win it: A big strength is their speed, and speed doesn't slump. Also, they've received only six home runs and 71 RBI combined from corner outfielders Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. If those two righthanded hitters get hot -- or, in Cuddyer's case, get healthy -- the lineup will have better balance.
Why they could stumble: Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher and Denard Span have exceeded expectations, but their track records offer no guarantee for sustained success. Also, from Aug. 21 through Sept. 21, the Twins play 24 of 30 games on the road.
Bold prediction: They won't make an impact trade. Some suggest trading Livan Hernandez to make room for Francisco Liriano, who has been dominant at Class AAA. But what happens if one of the young starters -- Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey or Liriano -- hits a late-season wall?
The pressure's on: The bullpen trio of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Brian Bass. The Twins are 42-4 when leading after seven innings, but it's been dicey getting through the eighth with setup man Pat Neshek injured.
Tigers (47-47, 7 GB)
What we've learned: A team with aging stars can look unbeatable on paper and still be rotten.
Why they can win it: Magglio Ordonez and Brandon Inge are back from their oblique injuries. Also, the schedule is favorable. They are done traveling to the West Coast, where they've struggled, done facing Boston and have only one makeup game against the Yankees.
Why they could stumble: Forget the preseason hype. Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria are shadows of their former selves, and a shoulder injury has plagued Gary Sheffield. Marcus Thames had a torrid June but is batting .216 in July.
Bold prediction: GM Dave Dombrowski will make a trade to bolster his pitching staff or inject life at shortstop. This team has too much invested not to go all-in, but this will only further deplete the farm system.
The pressure's on: Miguel Cabrera. He's had enough time to get comfortable, and it's time for him to justify the blockbuster trade Detroit made to get him, as well as his new $152 million contract.
Royals (43-53, 12 GB)
What we've learned: This team is improved, but in Kansas City, that's a relative term.
Why they can win it: It won't happen this year or next year, but if the Royals maintain this slow, steady climb, they might be a factor by 2010. Potential championship pieces appear to include Joakim Soria, Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen (who overcame a slow start) and Gil Meche (though not as the ace).
Why they could stumble: The offense is so bad, it's demoralizing, and this has stunted the Royals' growth.
Bold prediction: The roller-coaster ride will continue. In the first half, the Royals went 13-5 in interleague play but also managed another 12-game losing streak. A division foe that catches Kansas City on a hot streak could come away very frustrated.
The pressure's on: Billy Butler. He looked like an offensive force when the Twins faced him in April, but he lost his confidence and got shipped to Class AAA. He came back saying he hoped to be a better teammate, and at age 22, there's still time to prove he belongs.
Indians (41-53, 13 GB)
What we've learned: We should never make another prediction after picking this team first in spring training.
Why they can win it: Trading CC Sabathia to Milwaukee signaled a 2008 surrender, so let's address this category for 2009. In August, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner will return from the DL, and important evaluations will be made about this lineup's future.
Why they could stumble: Again, focusing on the rebuilding project, let's assume Fausto Carmona returns from his hip injury and regains his dominant form. Carmona and Cliff Lee offer a solid 1-2 punch, but Jake Westbrook had Tommy John elbow surgery and might not be a factor again until 2010.
Bold prediction: The Indians will continue their free-fall, leaving some to speculate about manager Eric Wedge's future. But it's not his fault. Injuries have killed this team's chances, and based on his past success, he deserves a fresh start next year.
The pressure's on: Matt LaPorta. He was the centerpiece of the Sabathia trade, and all eyes will be on his continued development as a power hitter at Class AA, and at the Olympics. The way the Indians are configured with Hafner and Ryan Garko, they'd like to see LaPorta improve as a corner outfielder, too.
Joe Christensen jchristensen@startribune.com