Who are you reaching for? (1 Viewer)

[Phenomena]

Regarding Cooks, did you look at his last 9 games? 

It's sick. Those game averages over a whole season....whooooooaaa nelly. 

And the guy is only 22 (maybe 23 now). He most definitely can improve. 

You should only pro-rate what you feel is reasonable. Prorating the last 9 games would still only be 1200 yards (which is reasonable).  Pro-rating the TDs you come up with 14. Does that sound reasonable given his ridiculously low red-zone target share? Decker had 28 red-zone targets (most of any WR, 4 times what Cooks had) and did not come close to 14 TDs. These are not reasonable projections.

I would also like to add that most of Cooks scores in those last 9 games came against atrocious defenses, the latter two which the Saints will NOT be playing again this year.

NYG - 32nd pass defense - 2 TDs

WAS - 25th pass defense - 2 TDs

JAX - 29th pass defense - 1 TD

In addition, the Saints pass defense schedule this year is dramatically harder given they are playing the NFC west (Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals).

He's fool's gold this year. I'm going to stop convincing anyone of it, though, because I prefer people make bad drafting decisions!

Enjoy the disappointment.

 

[Gottabesweet]

You should only pro-rate what you feel is reasonable. Prorating the last 9 games would still only be 1200 yards (which is reasonable).  Pro-rating the TDs you come up with 14. Does that sound reasonable given his ridiculously low red-zone target share? Decker had 28 red-zone targets (most of any WR, 4 times what Cooks had) and did not come close to 14 TDs. These are not reasonable projections.

I would also like to add that most of Cooks scores in those last 9 games came against atrocious defenses, the latter two which the Saints will NOT be playing again this year.

NYG - 32nd pass defense - 2 TDs

WAS - 25th pass defense - 2 TDs

JAX - 29th pass defense - 1 TD

In addition, the Saints pass defense schedule this year is dramatically harder given they are playing the NFC west (Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals).

He's fool's gold this year. I'm going to stop convincing anyone of it, though, because I prefer people make bad drafting decisions!

Enjoy the disappointment.

  Well done, He was in my conversation for 2.10 or 3.3 - will keep researching

 

[pantherclub]

Gio Benard 4/5 turn.

I like that to

 

[pantherclub]

  Well done, He was in my conversation for 2.10 or 3.3 - will keep researching

I love this board, it has made me money over the years

 

[eoMMan]

You should only pro-rate what you feel is reasonable. Prorating the last 9 games would still only be 1200 yards (which is reasonable).  Pro-rating the TDs you come up with 14. Does that sound reasonable given his ridiculously low red-zone target share? Decker had 28 red-zone targets (most of any WR, 4 times what Cooks had) and did not come close to 14 TDs. These are not reasonable projections.

I would also like to add that most of Cooks scores in those last 9 games came against atrocious defenses, the latter two which the Saints will NOT be playing again this year.

NYG - 32nd pass defense - 2 TDs

WAS - 25th pass defense - 2 TDs

JAX - 29th pass defense - 1 TD

In addition, the Saints pass defense schedule this year is dramatically harder given they are playing the NFC west (Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals).

He's fool's gold this year. I'm going to stop convincing anyone of it, though, because I prefer people make bad drafting decisions!

Enjoy the disappointment.

So basically you're avoiding him for scheduling reasons only because you just contradicted your red zone theory with the Decker example, correct? More red zone targets don't always mean more TDs....especially with an explosive player like Cooks who can take it to house on any play.....and in that offense where you have a great goal line back named Ingram, they are fine with giving him the rock.

I think Cooks floor is 1,000 yards and 8 TDs...but I think he'll get in the top 10....possibly top 5 WR this year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Isn't Cooks basically the younger version of DeSean? Burner, great speed, playmaker extraordinaire. Lots of HRs, plenty of Ks. Not a chain mover. Not a true number 1.

The Saints  drafted their big WR who will be their number 1. Maybe not this year, though the reports have been outstanding and Brees loves him, so probably soon enough.

Michael Thomas is a guy to reach for.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Isn't Cooks basically the younger version of DeSean?

While he's a long way off, I think he's closer to Antonio Brown than Desean from a skill set point of view. His rookie season he was actually used a lot (probably too much) on underneath routes and bubble screens instead of deep flys.  

 

[Shrugs]

While he's a long way off, I think he's closer to Antonio Brown than Desean from a skill set point of view. His rookie season he was actually used a lot (probably too much) on underneath routes and bubble screens instead of deep flys.  

Plus he's not a headcase like DeSean.

 

[ponza88]

Seems a little early for Melvin. 

LOL!! I legit Lol'ed at work, everyone looked at me.

 

[ponza88]

TYLER LOCKETT.

Can't believe no one has mentioned him yet. 

Especially in PPR Return Leagues, he's going to be a BEAST with a VERY efficient and VERY accurate QB.


--- Semi Reaches --- 

Duke Johnson, Mike Evans, Gio, Marvin Jones

 

[devouredbychaos]

Lamar Miller

Donte Moncrief

Tyler Lockett

Dion Lewis

Jeremy Langford 

Michael Thomas 

Kevin White 

Devontae Booker

I feel like all of these guys have potential for big seasons. Maybe it's just a hunch or a guy feeling, but I'll be trying to get most of them on my roster this season. 

 

[devouredbychaos]

TYLER LOCKETT.

Can't believe no one has mentioned him yet. 

Especially in PPR Return Leagues, he's going to be a BEAST with a VERY efficient and VERY accurate QB.


--- Semi Reaches --- 

Duke Johnson, Mike Evans, Gio, Marvin Jones

I agree. I think he'll have a much better season than Baldwin and finish as a top 10-15 WR. 

 

[gianmarco]

Isn't Cooks basically the younger version of DeSean? Burner, great speed, playmaker extraordinaire. Lots of HRs, plenty of Ks. Not a chain mover. Not a true number 1.

The Saints  drafted their big WR who will be their number 1. Maybe not this year, though the reports have been outstanding and Brees loves him, so probably soon enough.

Michael Thomas is a guy to reach for.

Uh, complete opposites.  With the exception of 2013 when he caught 82 balls, DeSean didn't go over 63 receptions in his 7 other years in the NFL so far in his career.  He's a low reception, high YPR guy with the ability to score on long TDs.

In only his 2nd year in the league (and 1st complete year), Cooks had 84 receptions last year.  He was similarly on pace for 85 receptions his 1st year in the league as a rookie.  Cooks looks to be a PPR machine if he starts hitting 90-100 receptions.  Considering he was at 80+ his first 2 yrs in the league, that's not a stretch.  Last projection I saw at MFL has him at 92/1240/10 which is less than 10% increase in each of those numbers from last year (84/1138/9). 

Cooks is nothing like DeSean in terms of usage nor productivity with the exception of 2013 DeSean (his career year).  DeSean has a career 17.7 ypr and averages 55 receptions per year.  Cooks has a career 12.3 ypr and averages 85 receptions per year (prorating 1st year after 10 weeks played).

 

[BobbyLayne]

While he's a long way off, I think he's closer to Antonio Brown than Desean from a skill set point of view. His rookie season he was actually used a lot (probably too much) on underneath routes and bubble screens instead of deep flys.  

AB in college was all bubble screens, slants & quick hitters. Saw tons of his home games & I was like "nice MAC player but he's never playing Sunday's."



Guys do develop & grow through mastering their craft.

FTR I like Cooks. I just don't like his price this year. Who knows what the Saints will be like in a few years when Brees is done. If they stay healthy Cooks & Thomas will be a great duo for somebody to throw to.

Personally I think MT is the next Colston. Not sure he blows up this year but in a year or two he's the guy I'd want for PPR. And I like him better as a value play this year 

 

[thehornet]

While he's a long way off, I think he's closer to Antonio Brown than Desean from a skill set point of view. His rookie season he was actually used a lot (probably too much) on underneath routes and bubble screens instead of deep flys.  

If cooks has a career like deseans first 7 years, I'll be impressed. 

 

[WhoDeyTKO]

If cooks has a career like deseans first 7 years, I'll be impressed. 

Cooks is already a better WR than DeSean. DeSean is a one trick pony. He cannot run the full NFL route tree that Cooks can. Cook caught nearly 90 balls last year. And I fully expect him to improve on that this year, now that he will be a more focal part of the offense with Colston and Watson being gone. You need to check your football IQ if you think that this is even debatable.

 

[steelers1080]

According to ESPN ADP:

• Allen Robinson - I see him having a top 5 WR year, Going 16, I'd take at 10.
  
• Lamar Miller - Going 15, I'd take top 10.
  
• Mike Evans - Going 26, I'd take at 16.
  
• Jordan Reed - He's going in round 4. If you'd take Gronk in round 1, you should look at Reed in round 2. I personally wait on TE, but they're comparable especially with the Brady suspension.
  
• Josh Gordon - Currently going end of round 10. I'd take in round 8. (Drafting as depth, not a starter)
  
• Blount - Going round 12. Dion Lewis is out indefinitely, I'd take in round 8. Still don't trust the NE RB that much.
  
• Winston - Going round 13. I'd take him in the same area as Rivers, or end of round 9.
  
• Kamar Aiken - Going Undrafted. He was WR 21 last year, Steve Smith still isn't back and Mike Wallace is a one trick pony. He's at least worth drafting.
  
• Eric Ebron - Going Undrafted, has TE1 potential in the Calvin vacuum. Also TE3 potential, but I'm still hopeful since his injury was minor.
  
• Will Fuller - Going Undrafted, if Hopkins sucks up coverage, the #2 WR could have starter potential in deep leagues, or pop if Hopkins gets hurt.
  
• Tevin Coleman - Going Undrafted. Must own for all Freeman Owners.
  

 

[shadyridr]

Probably reach for Reed in the early 3rd

 

[zftcg]

I haven't really started looking at ADP yet, and I'm sure I'll have some more once I do, but a couple off the top of my head:

1. Dalton. At this point, I'm not even sure he's a reach. The guy has been a consistent Top 10 QB, but he's being drafted more like QB15. However, in my long-time family league my brother (who owned him last year) will not let him slip that far. I've been seeing him in mocks going in the 9th or 10th, but would definitely take him sooner. (I've also seen him rising lately, so that could change my plans further).

2. Charles. Another one whose ADP may change in the next couple weeks, especially if he seems on track to start Week 1. I get the age/injury risk, but talent wise I see him as right up there with the big three RBs (and less risky than DJohnson). I've been doing some mocks where I found myself in the mid- to late-first considering Jamaal vs. Miller, and having a really tough decision. I also view Doug Martin in that range, and he seems to be going later than expected, too.

 

[Borden]

Gary Barnidge take him in the late 5th/early 6th. 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Rich Hribar is an outstanding FF writer at Roto that uses a boatload of stats to back up his takes.  His 32 Bold Claims article is absolutely worth reading, but I quote it here for those reaching for Lockett.
 

Tyler Lockett - Outside of the Top-36 Scoring Wide Receivers

Lockett had at least seven targets in every game except for one once Jimmy Graham went down for the season, averaging 63.6 yards receiving those weeks, but also never eclipsed more than seven targets in any week. That was over a span where Russell Wilson went absolutely nuclear, tossing scores on 11 percent of his passes. Seattle extended both Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, and Graham looks like he’ll be back sooner than later. Even with Wilson attempting more passes in every season of his career, this is a team that will likely be splitting up 525 targets or fewer. Lockett has also been playing almost exclusively in three-receiver sets this summer behind Kearse.

 

[cantstop1999]

Steve Smith -- as long as he's healthy, this guy is going to explode during his swan song.

I D. Moncrief for sure,  L.Miller isn't in there for me, he has one of the hardest schedules in the league. I'll pass on him.

All of that applied last year and he was WR13? Despite having less competition for targets compared to this year and with the top two RBs going down with injury so they'd have to focus more on the pass. All of that and he could not crack the top 13.

I'd like to point out that Cooks had an astronomically low 8 targets inside the red-zone. Only 4 were caught and only two of those were for TDs. That put him 90th in total red-zone targets in 2015.  90th.  As in 89 other RB/WR/TEs had more targets inside the 20 yard line.

At least the other hyped players this year have some sort of reasoning for their increased performance/usage. Nothing has changed for Cooks yet he's being drafted a full round, sometimes two rounds higher than last year. Doesn't make any sense.

It's foolish to draft someone at their ceiling, which is exactly what you're doing taking him around the 12th overall receiver. Guys like Jeffrey, Cooper that are targeted every red zone trip are way better bets for higher upside with similar floors... I mean even Golden Tate will easily surpass 1,000 yards and gets 3-5 times the red zone looks, and you can get him three rounds later.  

Of the five consensus first round RBs (DJ, Gurley, ADP, Zeke & Miller), I think he has the best shot at being the RB1 for 2016. In any format.

Seriously considering him at the 1.05 in a full PPR.

 

[Team Smokin']

New Orleans is going to be a bad d again, brees is a stud qb, they play 10 games on turf, they will play a lot of games from behind, he is the #1 option on a team that will play a lot from behind.  He is listed as 14th on this adp, i'd take him above jeffrey (worse qb, will share with k white, conservative coach with new oc), cooper (worse qb), kallen (coming back from injury), mike evans (3 tds last year, but everyones fave bounce back, id rather have cooks).

Just my feel... I like wrs on bad defensive teams with hall of fame qbs


1


1.01


Antonio Brown


WR


PIT


8


1.4


0.7


1.01


1.06


712


 


2


1.03


Odell Beckham Jr


WR


NYG


11


3.0


1.1


1.01


1.09


712


 


3


1.04


Julio Jones


WR


ATL


11


3.6


1.4


1.01


1.10


452


 


4


1.08


DeAndre Hopkins


WR


HOU


9


7.7


2.0


1.03


2.02


705


 


5


1.08


A.J. Green


WR


CIN


9


8.3


2.3


1.03


2.05


683


 


6


1.11


Dez Bryant


WR


DAL


6


10.9


2.2


1.02


2.07


826


 


7


1.12


Allen Robinson


WR


JAC


5


12.4


3.3


1.01


2.09


837


 


8


2.04


Brandon Marshall


WR


NYJ


11


16.0


2.7


1.07


3.02


778


 


9


2.05


Jordy Nelson


WR


GB


4


17.4


2.9


1.04


3.04


675


 


10


2.08


Mike Evans


WR


TB


6


19.9


3.0


1.08


3.08


712


 


11


2.10


Keenan Allen


WR


SD


10


21.7


3.5


1.12


3.09


725


 


12


2.11


Amari Cooper


WR


OAK


6


23.2


3.9


1.09


3.10


725


 


13


3.02


Alshon Jeffery


WR


CHI


7


26.2


3.8


2.03


4.01


672


 


14


3.03


Brandin Cooks


WR


NO


5

I agree with this assessment for the most part. The top 8 WR's on this list are all studs. Who is #9, 10, 11, and 12? Because when it comes time to drafting you gotta pull the trigger who you think is the best of these last six. It's situational and coming back from injury. I would go Nelson, Allen, Cooks, Evans, Jeffery, and Cooper. The last 3 could go in any order. I guess I'm a tad higher on Allen over Cooks, but that could change over the next week. These last 8 WR's are all so tightly bunched. People expect Robinson to fall off a tad. Brandon Marshall and Decker are locked into a great system with Fitz. I like both of them. I feel I might reach if I could for Marshall and perhaps Decker.

 

[Team Smokin']

I agree. Hyde before Ingram or Lacey is foolish, imo 

Definitely Ingram is more cream of this crop.

 

[Team Smokin']

Regarding Cooks, did you look at his last 9 games? 

It's sick. Those game averages over a whole season....whooooooaaa nelly. 

And the guy is only 22 (maybe 23 now). He most definitely can improve. 

Cooks started extremely slow last year. In fact, he sucked and I traded him only to watch his good production come on. Chemistry between Brees, a pure passer, and Cooks with Thomas in the mix. I like. Playing from behind on fast surfaces.

 

[thehornet]

Cooks is already a better WR than DeSean. DeSean is a one trick pony. He cannot run the full NFL route tree that Cooks can. Cook caught nearly 90 balls last year. And I fully expect him to improve on that this year, now that he will be a more focal part of the offense with Colston and Watson being gone. You need to check your football IQ if you think that this is even debatable.

Calm down. Read what I wrote. I didn't say anybody was better than anyone else.  Desean has had 4 or 5 1k receiving seasons. That's pretty good last I checked. 

 

[avina1]

QB: Eli, Tannehill

RB: Ryan Mathews, Blount, Christine Michael, Duke Johnson (PPR)

WR: Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Travis Benjamin

TE: Fleener, Cameron Brate

note: if Doug Martin gets hurt for any time Sims is going to be a beast

 

[thehornet]

Think I'll reach on Marty Bennett. Seems like he's going to have big role. 

 

[WhoDeyTKO]

Calm down. Read what I wrote. I didn't say anybody was better than anyone else.  Desean has had 4 or 5 1k receiving seasons. That's pretty good last I checked. 

I am calm dude. Cooks arguably had a better year that DeSean ever had in only his second season. You made it sound like Cooks was going to have a hard time replicating DeSean's career numbers.

 

[thehornet]

I am calm dude. Cooks arguably had a better year that DeSean ever had in only his second season. You made it sound like Cooks was going to have a hard time replicating DeSean's career numbers.

I did? I said it would be impressive if he did. Big difference. Guys get injured, Qbs change, schemes change. Desean went 82, 1300+, and 9 scores in his third season. Folks back then thought he would take off too. Desean Jackson has always had talent. Cooks could easily go that way too. I like him. I think he has a bright future. Could he be better than Desean? Absolutely. Will he? Maybe. Desean is still only 29. By the way, how many balls you catch doesn't really mean anything in terms of talent. Desean had a ridiculous ypc. It doesn't mean he's a one trick pony.  He's also never played with anyone close to brees who is a potential HOF qb. 

I don't even love djax or anything but you clearly have cooks on your fantasy team.

Anyways, I am done. This is a good topic. Didn't mean to get off track. 

 

[WhoDeyTKO]

I did? I said it would be impressive if he did. Big difference. Guys get injured, Qbs change, schemes change. Desean went 82, 1300+, and 9 scores in his third season. Folks back then thought he would take off too. Desean Jackson has always had talent. Cooks could easily go that way too. I like him. I think he has a bright future. Could he be better than Desean? Absolutely. Will he? Maybe. Desean is still only 29. By the way, how many balls you catch doesn't really mean anything in terms of talent. Desean had a ridiculous ypc. It doesn't mean he's a one trick pony.  He's also never played with anyone close to brees who is a potential HOF qb. 

Anyways, I don't even love djax or anything but you clearly have cooks on your fantasy team.

Anyways, I am done. This is a good topic. Didn't mean to get off track. 

I don't have Cooks on my team. Just saying that he is a much better receiver than Jackson and that the two are not really comparable.

 

[thehornet]

I don't have Cooks on my team. Just saying that he is a much better receiver than Jackson and that the two are not really comparable.

You have reading comprehension issues. Nobody compared the two. But you clearly have an agenda. Later dude. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Moncrief - I think he's more talented than Hilton (who's still battling a hammy) and will get a lot of the short passes that the Colts are talking about. I think his ADP is early 5th, I've grabbed him mid-late 4th. Not a huge reach, but enough that dudes in the league commented.

I don't look at it as a reach so much as a "likely wouldn't make it back to me".

but I do have a bit of an unhealthy obsession. 

I'll also grab Keenan Allen several picks before his ADP, and ahead of guys that the majority seem to rank higher.  If I like a player, sometimes all that matters is that I get him even if it's perceived as 5-6 picks early. 

Also, I recently took Gore as my RB4 in the 7th, when he may have been there in the 8th. But it's a SF Bay Area League, I was wearing a Frank Gore jersey. Plus I'm high on him as a value pick and he has a cheap H/C so I reached by a round. 

I never want to reach unless I feel it's justified. Of course you can always delude yourself that way too. Heh

 

[Warrior]

Dion Lewis, and I just know it's going to bite me in the ####.

Yep.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If I like a player, sometimes all that matters is that I get him even if it's perceived as 5-6 picks early. 

Being in a serpentine draft, pretty much dictates "reaching" 5-6 picks early at times if you want a guy - most redraft leagues do not have a lot of trading during the draft in my experience.

I think people obsess a little too much about ADP especially if they are drafting in their local leagues as surprises often happen in those and the consensus ADP generally means very little. It's often a healthy approach to grab the guys you like instead of taking the guy you "should". 

 

[We Tigers]

Being in a serpentine draft, pretty much dictates "reaching" 5-6 picks early at times if you want a guy - most redraft leagues do not have a lot of trading during the draft in my experience.

I think people obsess a little too much about ADP especially if they are drafting in their local leagues as surprises often happen in those and the consensus ADP generally means very little. It's often a healthy approach to grab the guys you like instead of taking the guy you "should". 

Also welcome scooter

I agree.  My longest-running league is a 14-teamer, so I "reach" a fair amount every year.  Those extra two teams make it a lot tougher for "value picks" to slide all the way back to you.  But even in a 12-team league, grabbing a guy a round ahead of ADP is rarely damaging.  If you're at either end of the snake, ignore ADP almost entirely.

The more important principle is not to fixate on a single player and ignore all the other viable guys between your current pick and your target.  That's how you miss value.  Yeah, you may think Lockett is going to explode this year, but that doesn't mean everyone between him and Mike Evans needs to be on your do-not-draft list.

 

[ponza88]

Still loving Lockett.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

17. Tyler Lockett

Lockett is a superb talent I am excited to own in one Dynasty league. I think he's worth consideration as a re-draft pick beginning at the sixth-/seventh-round turn. Lockett still goes in that range in some casual 12-team leagues, but he almost never gets out of the fifth in MFL10s. In my most recent best-ball draft, here is a list of likely 100-plus-target receivers that were drafted behind Lockett: Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, Marvin Jones, DeVante Parker, DeSean Jackson.

Lockett saw 69 targets as a rookie. Will he leap toward 100 this year? Probably not. Seattle is likely to remain a run-first team where Lockett is at best the No. 2 passing-game option. So far in preseason games, Lockett has run clearly behind Jermaine Kearse and hasn't been involved in two-receiver sets. Doug Baldwin returns as the No. 1 option. Jimmy Graham (knee) is also tentatively due back.

Let's say Lockett maintains his outstanding rookie-year efficiency and improves from 69 targets to 90 as a sophomore. It's a potentially generous projection. Lockett's stat line would move to 66.5 catches for 864.5 yards. Lockett has a targets problem, and it makes him a tough sell as more than a fringe WR3 investment.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/64512/139/the-shy-away-top-40?pg=2

 

[ponza88]

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/64512/139/the-shy-away-top-40?pg=2

He's going to be great in return leagues. WR3 is just icing on the cake. I don't agree that he's "Fringe WR3"... I think he turns out to be a WR2 by seasons end.

 

[One]

RAWLS

 

[Ilov80s]

Alfred Morris. Only thing between him and be the starting running back for the Cowboys is a rookie with a sore hamstring. I'll take that gamble in 9th or 10th. 

 

[TripItUp]

Alfred Morris. Only thing between him and be the starting running back for the Cowboys is a rookie with a sore hamstring. I'll take that gamble in 9th or 10th. 

got him in the 13th in my FFPC...highway robbery...a full fledged lottery ticket.

 

[Ilov80s]

got him in the 13th in my FFPC...highway robbery...a full fledged lottery ticket.

That is beautiful. 

 

[Ion Cannon]

Steve Smith -- as long as he's healthy, this guy is going to explode during his swan song.

Damn right Higgins! In my auction draft he never seems to get picked up until everyone is just filling their roster with left overs.

I'm reaching for Lockett

 

[Payne]

I'm not so sure it's "reaching", but I am going strong after CJ Anderson. I think, with Kubiak, he could be a steal at his current ADP.

 

[cheese]

Deangelo Williams is 3 weeks of a top 5 back, followed by bench him and he's a lottery ticket if Bell misses again. Easily more valuable than where he goes.  

 

[Tanner9919]

After last night ..Christine Michael.jees he looks good.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Deangelo Williams is 3 weeks of a top 5 back, followed by bench him and he's a lottery ticket if Bell misses again. Easily more valuable than where he goes.  

He went in the 6th round of my IDP PPR league last Saturday. And not to the Bell owner. 



His ADP is actually 6th round, looking at it now, which I think is a bit nutty.  I think his ADP is already a reach. But yes - unquestioned value if Bell should miss more than the 3 weeks he's guaranteed to miss. 

I have questions about the entire PIT offense. Folks are overlooking the impact that Martaveous Bryant had opening up the run game. I recently saw a breakdown of rushing stats for PIT with Bryant in the lineup, and rushing stats without Bryant in the lineup and it was a significant difference. 

 

[theToes]

I haven't really started looking at ADP yet, and I'm sure I'll have some more once I do, but a couple off the top of my head:

1. Dalton. At this point, I'm not even sure he's a reach. The guy has been a consistent Top 10 QB, but he's being drafted more like QB15. However, in my long-time family league my brother (who owned him last year) will not let him slip that far. I've been seeing him in mocks going in the 9th or 10th, but would definitely take him sooner. (I've also seen him rising lately, so that could change my plans further).

2. Charles. Another one whose ADP may change in the next couple weeks, especially if he seems on track to start Week 1. I get the age/injury risk, but talent wise I see him as right up there with the big three RBs (and less risky than DJohnson). I've been doing some mocks where I found myself in the mid- to late-first considering Jamaal vs. Miller, and having a really tough decision. I also view Doug Martin in that range, and he seems to be going later than expected, too.

I had a 10 team ppr draft (picking 7th) where the Wr's just flew off the board. I was able to get Miller in the 2nd, Charles in the 3rd and Martin in the 4th. 

The wr's were being way overdrafted and I was just going where the value was. No reaching necessary. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

  If you're at either end of the snake, ignore ADP almost entirely.

This is key. 

I remember my 2nd or 3rd year playing FFB I got all into ADP.  I kept thinking all draft, "what a reach!" about my league-mates picks. 

Then I looked at my crappy roster and saw all my targets on other people's rosters and realized that while it might have been a perceived reach at the time, that didn't matter because they got them and I didn't. 

If you want a guy, take him a round early - better than regretting it a round late and having to settle for a lesser player.