David Yudkin
Footballguy
With all the hype lately, I figured we might as well throw this one out there . . .
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Who Ends the Season Ranked Higher (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Yudkin
- Start date
DBC Tweeker
Footballguy
I'll say Kerry Collins. We've seen what Culpepper looks like without Moss.
Bigdee
Footballguy
You all are kidding, right? Moss missed several weeks last season and it barely slowed Culpepper down. Right now, I'm wishing Nate Burleson was on my roster. Collins proved once again his tendency to toss it up for grabs, without regard for the number of jersey's being of the wrong color around the target area. Collins' numbers will be better than last year because of Moss' innate ability to get to the ball, but he will still be behind Manning and 'Pepper.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Collins should have a nice year (by his standards) but my vote goes to Culpepper. I see sanity is prevailing on the votes so far with 73% for Cpep.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'll gladly take that bet. Should we set the bar at a minimum of 14 games played for each QB?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As good as Moss is and how that will help Collins this year I am quite suprised that this is even a topic of discussion.Much less that some think Collins will perform better than Culpepper in 2005
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Culpepper played 5 games last year without Moss. In those games, his stats were:
1,179 yards
9 TD passes
3 Ints
117 rushing yardsPro rate those stats over a 16-game schedule and you get:
3,773 yards
28.8 TD passes
9.6 Ints
374 rushing yards
331.7 fantasy pointsWithout factoring in ANY rushing TDs (Culpepper has never had less than 2, and has averaged almost 5 per season), Culpepper still produced like a top 5 fantasy QB last year WITHOUT Moss.
Now, the other flawed assumption in the anti-Culpepper nonsense is that the Vikings removal of Moss comes without replacement. Yet, that's not true. The Vikings have added Travis Taylor AND could quite possibly add another WR in the draft. They also retained TE Wiggins and get back TE Kleinsasser from injury.
Culpepper will be hard pressed, if healthy, to fall much short of the top 5 whereas Collins, particularly because he gives you nothing as a runner, will need to hit career highs AND maximize Moss' potential to crack the top 5.
1,179 yards
9 TD passes
3 Ints
117 rushing yardsPro rate those stats over a 16-game schedule and you get:
3,773 yards
28.8 TD passes
9.6 Ints
374 rushing yards
331.7 fantasy pointsWithout factoring in ANY rushing TDs (Culpepper has never had less than 2, and has averaged almost 5 per season), Culpepper still produced like a top 5 fantasy QB last year WITHOUT Moss.
Now, the other flawed assumption in the anti-Culpepper nonsense is that the Vikings removal of Moss comes without replacement. Yet, that's not true. The Vikings have added Travis Taylor AND could quite possibly add another WR in the draft. They also retained TE Wiggins and get back TE Kleinsasser from injury.
Culpepper will be hard pressed, if healthy, to fall much short of the top 5 whereas Collins, particularly because he gives you nothing as a runner, will need to hit career highs AND maximize Moss' potential to crack the top 5.
Jason, and I hope you didn't spend too much time putting that together since jwvdcw is probably just on another late night 
Jules Winnfield
Footballguy
I'll take that betI'll take Culpepper
Yah_Shoor_Yoobetchya
Footballguy
True...but we've also never seen Moss play a majority of a 16 game NFL schedule outdoors. He's always had the luxury of playing at least 9 of his 16 games indoors (8 in Metrodome, 1 in Detroit).
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'll repost my rebuttal to Jason's pro rating. Short version: If Minnesota were going to play Tennessee, Indy, Detroit and the Packers every week, I'd agree with that pro rating a lot more. Instead, his schedule gets significantly harder.
Projecting Culpepper for next year:
Loss of Moss:
I've posted numerous times that Culpepper's numbers without Moss dropped off significantly, despite having one of the easiest schedules possible while Moss was out.
In 2002, Culpepper threw 7 of his 18 TDs to Moss. In 2003, Culpepper threw 12 of his 25 TDs to Moss. In 2004, Culpepper threw 13 of his 39 TDs to Moss.
Is Culpepper really that good?
Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Gus Frerotte have all been top fantasy QBs while throwing to Moss. It's hard to quantify if they were all 35% better than they were without him, but all of those guys were backups on the bad end of their careers before they looked like studs throwing to Moss.
Culpepper threw 39 TDs in 2004. But the average defense he played was 21st in the NFL. In 2005, it will be 15th - a harder than average schedule.
Schedule:
Minnesota's schedule against the pass next year is harder. I posted this in the same thread you mentioned earlier:
2005 schedule..............2004 ScheduleTampa Bay (2)..............Washington Redskins (7)Pittsburgh (4).............New York Giants (9) <-- Moss outCleveland (5)..............Philadelphia Eagles (12)N.Y. Giants (9)............Chicago Bears (13)Baltimore (10).............Chicago Bears (13)St. Louis (11).............Jacksonville Jaguars (16)Chicago (13)...............Dallas Cowboys (20)Chicago (13)...............Detroit Lions (21)Cincinnati (15)............Detroit Lions (21) <-- Moss outCarolina (18)..............Houston Texans (22)Detroit (21)...............Seattle Seahawks (23)Detroit (21)...............Green Bay Packers (25)Atlanta (24)...............Green Bay Packers (25) <-- Moss outGreen Bay (25).............Tennessee Titans (26) <-- Moss outGreen Bay (25).............New Orleans Saints (27)New Orleans (27)...........Indianapolis Colts (31) <-- Moss outHere's their 2004 and 2005 schedules side by side, sorted by pass yards allowed. Precedent
There's really no precedent for a receiver of Moss' caliber changing teams. There's plenty of precedent for the numbers of a QB dropping off when a top receiver leaves, but this is
We can see that Jeff Garcia, a top 5 QB every year prior to Owens' departure, dropped off significantly this year, but Garcia also changed teams. Garcia's numbers dropped off only slightly when Rice left (~600 fewer yards, but 2 more TDs), but Rice appeared to be on the downside of his career and Owens and Garcia were just emerging.
Brunell's numbers dropped from QB7 to QB12 the year McCardell changed teams, but obviously neither is of the caliber of player we're talking about here. Bledsoe's numbers dropped like a rock the year Price left, but that is more commonly attributed to his weakness against the inside blitz.
Jake Plummer's numbers jumped from 2900/13/21 to 3600/18/14 the year Boston emerged, then dropped to 2900/18/20 when Boston got hurt for part of the following year.
Conclusion:
On the one hand, it sounds like a 20% dropoff could easily be absorbed, but on the other hand, 20% is really just an arbitrary guess.
In my opinion, the best case for Culpepper is that he ends up a top 3 QB. The lowest I can reasonably see is that he falls to QB10, which I think is more likely. Add in the fact that he's missed seven games in the last three years, and that defenses will be able to focus on containing him instead of Moss, and I think there's a better than average chance he gets hurt. Regardless, he plays a highly replaceable position, and even in the best case, his VBD number won't be nearly as high as it has been in the past. To me, that means he's probably worth a fourth round pick, but I think he'll go earlier than that in a lot of leagues.
Projecting Culpepper for next year:
Loss of Moss:
I've posted numerous times that Culpepper's numbers without Moss dropped off significantly, despite having one of the easiest schedules possible while Moss was out.
In 2002, Culpepper threw 7 of his 18 TDs to Moss. In 2003, Culpepper threw 12 of his 25 TDs to Moss. In 2004, Culpepper threw 13 of his 39 TDs to Moss.
Is Culpepper really that good?
Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Gus Frerotte have all been top fantasy QBs while throwing to Moss. It's hard to quantify if they were all 35% better than they were without him, but all of those guys were backups on the bad end of their careers before they looked like studs throwing to Moss.
Culpepper threw 39 TDs in 2004. But the average defense he played was 21st in the NFL. In 2005, it will be 15th - a harder than average schedule.
Schedule:
Minnesota's schedule against the pass next year is harder. I posted this in the same thread you mentioned earlier:
2005 schedule..............2004 ScheduleTampa Bay (2)..............Washington Redskins (7)Pittsburgh (4).............New York Giants (9) <-- Moss outCleveland (5)..............Philadelphia Eagles (12)N.Y. Giants (9)............Chicago Bears (13)Baltimore (10).............Chicago Bears (13)St. Louis (11).............Jacksonville Jaguars (16)Chicago (13)...............Dallas Cowboys (20)Chicago (13)...............Detroit Lions (21)Cincinnati (15)............Detroit Lions (21) <-- Moss outCarolina (18)..............Houston Texans (22)Detroit (21)...............Seattle Seahawks (23)Detroit (21)...............Green Bay Packers (25)Atlanta (24)...............Green Bay Packers (25) <-- Moss outGreen Bay (25).............Tennessee Titans (26) <-- Moss outGreen Bay (25).............New Orleans Saints (27)New Orleans (27)...........Indianapolis Colts (31) <-- Moss outHere's their 2004 and 2005 schedules side by side, sorted by pass yards allowed. Precedent
There's really no precedent for a receiver of Moss' caliber changing teams. There's plenty of precedent for the numbers of a QB dropping off when a top receiver leaves, but this is
We can see that Jeff Garcia, a top 5 QB every year prior to Owens' departure, dropped off significantly this year, but Garcia also changed teams. Garcia's numbers dropped off only slightly when Rice left (~600 fewer yards, but 2 more TDs), but Rice appeared to be on the downside of his career and Owens and Garcia were just emerging.
Brunell's numbers dropped from QB7 to QB12 the year McCardell changed teams, but obviously neither is of the caliber of player we're talking about here. Bledsoe's numbers dropped like a rock the year Price left, but that is more commonly attributed to his weakness against the inside blitz.
Jake Plummer's numbers jumped from 2900/13/21 to 3600/18/14 the year Boston emerged, then dropped to 2900/18/20 when Boston got hurt for part of the following year.
Conclusion:
On the one hand, it sounds like a 20% dropoff could easily be absorbed, but on the other hand, 20% is really just an arbitrary guess.
In my opinion, the best case for Culpepper is that he ends up a top 3 QB. The lowest I can reasonably see is that he falls to QB10, which I think is more likely. Add in the fact that he's missed seven games in the last three years, and that defenses will be able to focus on containing him instead of Moss, and I think there's a better than average chance he gets hurt. Regardless, he plays a highly replaceable position, and even in the best case, his VBD number won't be nearly as high as it has been in the past. To me, that means he's probably worth a fourth round pick, but I think he'll go earlier than that in a lot of leagues.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Not a bad post all in all and you're right in that projecting this has a wide variable. The one point I would contend is where you start predicting or suggesting an increase chance of injury becasue Moss is gone. That just doesn't have any merit at all. In fact based on that rationale, you'd have to predict Vick goes out early and misses most of the season.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Those lucky enough to have gotten Collins cheap last year are in a good position now, assuming he was their backup last year.Personally, I'd consider trading him. I have him in one league, with a team I was given a month ago (also has Moss), I'd trade him if someone thought he was worth Culpepper. He's my only QB though, in a 24 teamer.
Family Matters
Footballguy
I posted this in the other Collins thread but it applies here also:
Will he finished ahead? I don't see how he could unless he suddenly becomes the QB he has never even remotely been close to before. What are the odds of that?As for Culpepper, many have pointed out that several QB's have had success in MN. I agree. Part of that is the system. Clearly it's QB friendly much the way KC & Denver are RB friendly. Losing Moss will improve the stats but the impact will not drop him out of the top 5.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey BFred,I think you do as good a job putting forth a bear case on Culpepper as I've seen. That said, there's one MAJOR omission from your analysis, their respective running skills.
You point to Culpepper's 2004 as potentially an anomaly, or a high point, yet make no reference to the fact that along with his outsized passing output came a career low in rushing TDs (2). Putting the TDs aside for a second, Culpepper has NEVER finished a season with less than 400 yards rushing, which as you know, is the equivalent of 800-1000 yards passing in most fantasy leagues. Add to that a minimum of 2 rushing TDs but more likely 4-5, and Culpepper has an incremental 50-80 fantasy points from his legs that Collins can't match.
Have considered trading Collins, however I have been building my team for a couple years and believe I have a chance to win the league over the next couple years. Those who are interested in him have solid teams but are lacking a little at the QB position, right now wouldn't consider them real threats but believe the upside of Collins is enough that could make them into serious contenders. Also, none of us really know what Cpep will be like fantasy wise sans Moss. I believe he will be fine and still a top 3 QB, however it would be foolish to put all my Easter eggs in that one basket when have a potentially viable alternative in Collins.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Here are a few instances where a Top 5 WR was not available the following season . . .1980 Dan Fouts ranked QB1 with WR John Jefferson (WR1)1981 Dan Fouts ranked QB1 without Jefferson, upping his fantasy point total from 345 to 361.1983 Joe Theismann ranked QB3 with WR Charlie Brown (WR3)1984 Joe Theismann ranked QB6 with Brown injured, his point total dropping from 320 to 290.1994 Brett Favre ranked QB2 with Sterling Sharpe (WR2)1995 Brett Favre ranked QB1 with Sharpe retired, upping his fantasy point total from 344 to 396.1995 Brett Favre ranked QB1 with WR Robert Brooks (WR5)1996 Brett Favre ranked QB1 with Brooks injured, his point total dropping from 396 to 364.2001 Jake Plummer ranked QB11 with David Boston (WR3)2002 Jake Plummer ranked QB15 with Boston injured, his point total dropping from 257 to 241.Even if there were 50 examples, we would still have no idea as to how Moss transitioning to Oakland would impact both Minnesota and Oakland.But from this limited sample size, in these instances it does not appear that the absence of the elite WR made a major impact.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I agree that there's a higher chance of injury for Vick. And Culpepper. And a few more QBs. I think it's completely reasonable to factor that into your projections for a QB, as long as you also factor in the backup QB/replacement value that you'll put in your lineup. With a "top" fantasy QB like Culpepper, the replacement value is going to represent more of a dropoff than an "average" fantasy QB like Vick, so it's more relevant to discuss it with stud QBs like Culpepper (and McNabb) IMO.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Hell is frozen this morning. I'm in complete agreement and want IN on the bet.Colin
bostonfred
Footballguy
I agree that Culpepper's running skills give him a huge head start on Collins in terms of actual production. I still think there's a good chance they may be close in actual production, though. (And really, the question is whether, in terms of VBD number, Culpepper in the first or second is as good a value as Collins in the fourth or fifth). But will Culpepper's rushing numbers go up? I don't think any of us know how much his running skills were enhanced by the fact that teams had to worry about Moss (and Wiggins, and Burleson, and the running game...). Because Moss pretty much commands a double team at all times, Culpepper's been playing 11 on 10.
If the Vikes go to a more run-oriented offense as they've said, defenses will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage. That's a double whammy - not only do they no longer have Moss pulling a safety back, but they have teams deliberately playing closer.
Remember how the Philly defense contained Vick in the playoffs? I think Culpepper's a much better passer than Vick, and I think the Philly defense is way above average, but the fact remains that good defenses can stop a good running team with a good running QB.
Did teams do that to Culpepper last year when Moss was out? No. But remember that Tice was saying that Moss was probably for those games, and even had him make a phantom start, so teams had to prepare for him. We have no idea how much differently the good teams they'll face year will prepare for a Vikings offense that doesn't have Moss, but I see risk.
I'm not saying Culpepper will fail. In fact, I'm happily keeping him in a deep keeper league. But I am saying that he's too risky for me to spend a first or second round pick, because he'd have to perform up to his upside just to earn that pick.
I've posted a ton on this recently, so I'll just copy and paste many of my arguments(please note that some of what I write here may be a bit confusing because I originally said it in reference to someone else's post and since you can't see his post, you'll be a bit confused). Also, some of the smilies might not show up. Edited to add: I suck at quoting posts, so I just bolded and italicized every other post to distinguish the different posts that I made. Anyway here it is....And if Brad Johnson's numbers had only went down 20% from the time he was with Moss, then he'd be top 5 as well.
And if Randall Cunningham's numbers had only went down 20% from the time he was with Moss, then he'd be top 5 as well.
And if Jeff George's numbers had only went down 20% from the time he was with Moss, then he'd be top 5 as well.
And if Todd Bouman's numbers had only went down 20% from the time he was with Moss, then he'd be top 5 as well.
And if Gus Frerotte's numbers only go down 20% from the time he was with Moss, then he'll be top 5 as well.
I will bet anyone that Culpepper will not finish the season as a top 3 QB under these rules:
6pts/all TDs
1pt/20 yards passing
1pt/10 yards rushing
-1pt/INT
-1pt/lost fumble
Name your price. It can be monetary, a sig bet, or anything else(we'll just obviously need a reliable mod to handle the money if you want to make it monetary).
Respond here if interested.
Here are Culpepper's averages:
2000: 25.1
2001: 22.3
2002: 22.6
2003: 23.5
2004: 27.1
Now, I could devote a lengthy post about how we should not compare this year to a QB's past years because the rule enforcements have caused everything to change. And I think its clear that the rule change caused a big spike in Culpepper's numbers(going from 23.5 to 27.1!). But whatever...if you'll concece that this year had a huge bump in QBs numbers all around, then I'll take it; If you refuse to concede that, then I'm not going to take my time to argue it.
Also, lets note that you are not taking points off for INTs or fumbles lost which many leagues do. If you did this, then Culpepper's numbers would definitely be a bit lower. Yes, this is a small issue, but it is worth noting.
Now heres the thing with the Vikings QB situation pre-Culpepper: It was up and down with many QBs splitting time in each game. For example, sometimes one QB would start the game, another would finish it, and the both would get credit with a game played even though they only played one half and that would bring their FF points per game average down. To be perfectly fair, lets just look at it by year:
1998(Brad Johnson, Jay Fiedler, Randall Cunningham): 4492 pass yards with 41 TDs and 141 rush yards with 1 TD. A total of 445.78 FF points or 27.86 ppg.
1999(Randall Cunningham and Jeff George): 4291 pass yards with 31 TDs and 105 rush yards with 0 TDs. A total of 368.14 FF points or 23 points per game.
So in the 2 years that Culpepper didn't play, they put up averages of 23 and 27.86 FF points per game at the Vikings QB position. I think that'd still be top 5 those years even taking away 20%.
Now, let us compare how Culpepper did in the same years as other QBs that were on the Vikings...
2000:(almost all Culpepper with the exception of 20 Bubby Brister pass attempts): Since its almost all Culpepper and you all have already covered his fantasy points per game, I'll leave this one alone unless you want to chime in more here.
2001:(Culpepper, Wynn, and Bouman). They list Culpepper with 11 games, Bouman with 9, and Wynn with 3. Obviously there was a lot of shared games here, so to be totally fair, lets just look at pass and rush attempts(if you can think of a more fair way of doing this, then be my guest, but its pretty hard to accurately tell just how much playing time each QB got unless you actually want to go look at the game tape).
Culpepper in 2001: 366 pass attempts and 71 rush attempts for a total of 437 attempts. 2612 pass yards with 14 TDs and 416 rush yards with 5 TDs. A total of 259.48 FF points or .59 FF points per attempt.
Bouman in 2001: 89 pass attemts and 9 rush attempts for a total of 98 total attempts. 795 pass yards with 8 TDs and 61 rush yards with 0 TDs. A total of 85.9 FF points or .88 FF points per attempt.
Wynn in 2001: 98 pass attempts and 8 rush attempts for a total of 106 total attempts. 418 pass yards with 1 TD and 61 rush yards with 0 TDs. A total of 28.82 FF points or .27 FF points per attempt
So for 2001, Bouman was outstanding, Culpepper was very average, and Wynn totally sucked.
2002: Culpepper got all but 6 of the pass attempts. Just like in 2000, since we've already discussed Culpeppers stats, I won't comment here.
2003: Culpepper and Frerotte...I'll do the same breakdown as I did with 2001.
Culpepper in 2003: 454 pass attemtps and 72 rush attempts for a total of 526 total attempts. 3479 yards passing with 25 TDs and 422 yards rushing with 4 TDs. A total of 355.36 FF points or .67 FF points per attempt
Frerotte in 2003: 65 pass attempts and 12 rush attempts for a total of 77 attempts. 690 pass yards with 7 TDS and -2 rush yards with 0 TDs for a total of 69.4 FF points or .90 FF points per attempt
So in 2003, Frerotte clearly outperformed Culpepper on a FF points per attempt basis.
2004: All Culpepper, so no comparison is needed.
CONCLUSION: I've shown that in years in which Culpepper has split duties that the backup QBs have been able to put up just as good of FF points compared to the chances they've gotten. I've also shown that in the two years prior to Culpepper(and I went back only 2 years becasue thats all that Moss played) that the QBs there have put up similar numbers to Culpepper on a points per game basis. In short, I belive I've shown that these QBs are just as good as Culpepper in the Minnesota offense. Now when we look at how these QBs have performed without Moss, I think it is a fair assumption to assume that Culpepper will do similarly.
I again extend my offer of a bet for any amount that Culpepper will not finish this year as a top 3 FF QB.
I never realy meant to get off on such a tangent about the pro bowl skills competition. To be honest with you, I don't think that they matter all that much either. I was just pointing out that Culpepper isn't very accurate.
I do maintain, however, that the reason that Culpepper has looked so great is due to Moss. Your statement that Culpepper had a great year DESPITE Moss having an off year is inaccurate imo. Here are Culpepper's first 5 games of this past year compared with his next 5. The first 5 he had Moss, the next 5 Moss was either injured and did not play or so hurt that he didn't even catch a single pass.
First 5 weeks: Moss healthy
1. 242-5
2. 343-1
3. 360-2
4. 396-5
5. 425-5
average: 353.2 yards and 3.6 TDs
Next 5 weeks: Moss injured
6. 183-1
7. 231-2
8. 169-1
9. 363-4
10. 233-2
average: 235.8 yards and 2 TDs
Oh and just to add...those 5 weeks without Moss were Culpepper's easiest stretch of the season in regards to playing teams with poorly ranked pass defenses(go look it up for yourself if you don't believe me).
Basically, my point is this:
Say that Moss didn't get traded. And pretend that the Vikings came out and said that Gus Frerotte was undoubtedly their #1 QB, no questions asked. Where would Frerotte be drafted? In my opinion, he'd be worthy of a 2nd round draft pick.
But then imagine that same scenario, but Moss gets hurt and is out for the year as well as Culpeper. Now where would Frerotte be drafted? Probably just in the mid rounds.
Well, what I'm trying to show is that Culpepper is no better than Frerotte(or Johnson, Cunningham, or George for that matter) and that we should downgrade Culpepper just as much.
That is the logic behind my arguments.
really feel like you're not listening to my argument at all. Here is basically what has been said:
Person who started this thread: "Culpepper has great stats with Moss. He could lose a lot and still be to 5."
Me: "I'll fully admit that Culpepper had great stats with Moss. However, I believe that many QBs have had great success with Moss and they havn't done that well without him. Furthermore, I can show that Culpepper has not played any better with Moss than these other QBs. Therefore, I predict that he'll fall off as well without him."
You: "Yeah, but Culpepper has great stats with Moss."
Look, I get it...Culpepper's stats with Moss are some of the best in the game and when you compare him to other QBs, he looks great. However, in 1998 the Vikings QBs were the #1 fantasy producers at the quarterback position(compared to any other team). Tons of QBs have put up great stats with Moss. SO YOU RE-TELLING ME HOW GREAT CULPEPPER HAS BEEN WITH MOSS REALLY DOESN'T ADDRESS MY POINT AT ALL.
Edited to add: If you want to disprove my point, then this is what you need to do: Show me why Culpepper is any different than all of those other QBs who were great with Moss(just as great as Pepper in fact, as I have clearly shown with factual statistics) yet merely average without him. You just keep pointing out his stats with Moss and that does nothing to disprove my point because I've already shown that WHILE CULPEPPER'S STATS WITH MOSS ARE IMPRESSIVE, THEY ARE NO MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN AT LEAST 3 OTHER QBS STATS WITH MOSS.
Ok, so using your own stats that you just gave(I'm too lazy to double check them):
Without Randy Moss:
-Brad Johnson had one top 5 season in 11 pro years(7 years in which he was the starting QB for his team)
-Cunningham had four top 5 seasons in 14 years(9 years in which he was a starter)
- Jeff George had 0 top 5 seasons in 11 years(8 years in which he was a starter)
-Todd Bouman had 0 top 5 season in 3 season(0 years as starter)
-Spurgeon Wynn had 0 top 5 seasons in 4 years(0 as a starter)
-Gus Frerotte had 0 top 5 seasons in 9 years(5 as a starter)
Notes about my stats: The years played and years as a starter are only those in which they did not play with Moss. For me to count the year as a starter, they had to start more the majority of their team's games.
I have already shown imo that these QBs have put up just as good of numbers as Culpepper has with Randy Moss. However without Randy Moss, these QBs have put up a total of five top 5 seasons in 52 years(9.6%), 29 of which they were starting QBs(17%). So clearly you would not be willing to bet straight up that one of these QBs could put up a top 5 season without Moss. Yet many are willing to bet that with Culpepper(by drafting him anywhere in the top 3 rounds, you basically are saying that you think he'll be at least top 5). Why?
Edited to add: And really the only reason that there are so many top 5 years among these QBs is due to Cunningham. But heres the thing: Cunningham was clearly not the FANTASY QB in his older age that he was in his younger age(his running was primarily what made hiim a great FF QB when he was young), so that even skews the data more in my favor when you consider that. If we were to eliminate the years the Cunningham was top 5 due to his rushing(which it is obvious to everyone that he did not still have when he played with Moss), then there would only be 1 or 2 top 5 seasons out of all of those years.
, for the last time....
Yes, I realize that his stats WITH MOSS look good. And yes, by studying his stats WITH MOSS you wouldn't think that hes suddenly going to fall out of the top 5.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE STOP FEEDING ME CULPEPPER'S STATS WITH MOSS. I realize that they are good. Before you came into this thread, I had already admitted countless times that Culpepper's stats WITH MOSS were good.
But...
every other QB except for the great(sarcasm) Spurgeon Wynn that has played with Moss has also done great. And every single one of those QBs except Cunningham was very average without Moss. And Cunningham was average at the time in his career that he played with Moss(he was only a FF stud without Moss when his young legs did most of the work). So why is Culpepper different than any of these?
Now please, give me a response that doesn't include Culpepper's stats WITH MOSS as a reason.
I'm still waiting for anyone willing to take me up on the bet that Culpepper won't be a top 3 QB this year.
Sig Bet? I'll do it.
Money Bet? Anything reasonable(nothing over $5000) I'll do it.
Banning bet? I'll do it.
Anyone? Hasn't Culpepper been top 3 for like 5 years in a row? So why are you all so scared
Updated...
Person who started this thread: "Culpepper has great stats with Moss. He could lose a lot and still be to 5."
Me: "I'll fully admit that Culpepper had great stats with Moss. However, I believe that many QBs have had great success with Moss and they havn't done that well without him. Furthermore, I can show that Culpepper has not played any better with Moss than these other QBs. Therefore, I predict that he'll fall off as well without him."
You: "Yeah, but Culpepper has great stats with Moss."
Me: "I already said that I fully admitted that Culpepper had great stats with Moss. Please address my points."
You: "Ok fine. Your main point was that every other Vikings QB who did great with Moss didn't do well without Moss. I disagree- look at these stats."
Me: "Huh? Your stats show exactly what I'm talking about! Only 5 of their 52 seasons did they put up top 5 numbers and 4 of those were due to Cunningham's legs, which he didn't have when he played with Moss!"
You: "Yeah, but Culpepper had great stats with Moss. Look at how he compares to the all time greats."
Me: " "
HERE is the link to the original thread...I really do
wn: a lot of people in it...Like when I use Dancing Bear's own stats to prove my point, or when Jason Wood tells me that nobody is saying that Pepper will be that good and that he only thinks he'll be top 7 or 8 and then I show him his own post where he said Pepper would definitely be top 5(I totally got him to back off his stance), or when I continue to tell Dancing Bear that I admit that Pepper's stats with Moss are good but that I don't think that matters(for reasons I've given) and then his only refutation is to continue to give me those very stats....man, I'm good!P.S. That bet offer still stands for the top 3 for money or the sig bet discussed here.
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Yah_Shoor_Yoobetchya
Footballguy
If Moss is the only common factor in determining whether Culpepper or Collins will finish higher, then things probably will not change much as Moss has never played a majority of his games outdoors, thus his production could easily suffer while still not having much effect on Collins. Same goes for Culpepper as whoever else lands there (Rod Gardner? Mike Williams? Braylon Edwards?) could see better than expected production, but still spreading the ball around more to Robinson/Burleson may not have much impact on Culpepper's overall production.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I voted Culpepper and will do so without any reservation. Culpepper will show clearly that the loss of Moss will not be nearly as significant as perceived, and he will return once again to the Top 5. Culpepper could have lost 7 ppg last year and still have been in the Top 5! Culpepper will score a minimum of 320 points.Collins will show that even Moss cannot turn him into a Prince, and he may actually crack the Top 10, but not the Top 5. He will flirt with 300 points an increase of 25% from last year.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
To play both sides of the fence on this one . . .If Culpepper does score 320 points, he would have lost 26% of his production from 2004.
So in your example, Moss' production would essentially be transferred directly to Collins (in a matter of speaking) with CPep losing 26% and Collins gaining 25%.
If Collins does score 300 points, depending upon the year for QBs, he could have a pretty varied ranking. The past 5 seasons, 300 points would have ranked 9, 5, 10, 9, and 7.
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mozzy84
Footballguy
I think moss's stats will take a hit by just not playing in the dome on the fast track, not to mention collins has never been one to throw alot of td's, this is kerry colins people. he'll do great one week and the next week he'll throw 3 picks and a buck fifty....culpepper will be fine and will be a top fantasy qb for years to come
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
If nothing else, this poll is showing me that 1 in 12 people (or thereabouts) thinks Collins will do better than Culpepper. That is probably the guy that will take Collins a round or two earlier than most people will, making it unlikely that Collins will fall to a safer and potentially valuable draft slot.As with the other threads on Collins, this supports that he should be overhyped and will be drafted too early IMHO. It only takes one guy to have an itchy trigger finger . . .
You, or anyone else, care to address the points I made? Yes, Collins has never been a FF stud...but were Brad Johnson, Jeff George, and Cunningham at the end of his career FF studs either? All of them were top 3 with Moss!Right now, I have Collins at QB#3 and Culpepper at QB#7.
Think what this poll also shows is that Cpep will continue to go in rd 1, early rd 2 at the latest ... that seems a little too risky for me as we don't know what affect no Moss will have, and more importantly it seems that Minny may be changing its offensive philosophy and no longer wants to be involved in shoot outs. Don't get me wrong, I think that Culpepper still is one of the top 2 fantasy QBs, especially in dynasty formats, but he is a risk at the moment.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I did some research on Turner's tenure as an NFL coach (20 years with Oakland, Miami, SD, Washington, Dallas, and the Rams).Here's what I came up with which may or may not have any relevancy in 2005.AVERAGE POINTS SCORED RANKING: 11.7Had 5 teams rank in the Top 3 in scoring (7 times Top 10 overall) but only one Top 3 in the past 11 seasons. Had only one season ranked worse than 18 (24th in 2000 with the Skins).AVERAGE PASSING YARDS RANKING: 14.2Had 3 Rams teams early on rank in the Top 5 (7 times Top 10 overall) but no Top 5 ranking since 1990.AVERAGE PASSING TD RANKING: 15.6Had 5 Top 5 seasons while coaching 3 different teams. Had 9 years ranked lower than 20.AVERAGE FANTASY QB RANKING: 15.9Produced 5 Top 5 QBs (3 in LA, 1 in Dallas, 1 in Washington) and 7 Top 10 QBs. May be somewhat related to . . .AVERAGE GAMES PLAYED BY QB1: 13.7Only had his QB play all 16 games 8 of 20 years. Not sure what that might indicate.
cstu
Footballguy
This is going too far. I don't care if Collins has Moss, Harrison and Owens - he's not putting up more fantasy points than Culpepper. Culpepper was the #1 QB last year without Moss much of the season. Consistency is the key and it doesn't help to have a guy like Collins put up 40 points one week and come back with 5 the next. Collins had some good games last year but they were mostly against bad pass D's - Saints, Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs and Titans. Culpepper is a lock for 20 points regardless of who the Vikes play.
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