Who Got The Better Of The Jay Cutler Trade? (1 Viewer)

[DrJ]

If he does what he did the other 30 or so games of his career, what makes you think he can? What makes you think Kyle Orton is capable of playing at that level for an entire season? Do you believe the ankle injury entirely explains his ineffectiveness during the 2nd half of the year?

I'll answer the questions backwards...Yes, I believe the ankle injury and treatment for it had a huge impact on the second half of the season.Why do I think he's capable of playing that way for an entire season? Well, I believe between his rookie season, where he showed flashes of great play, and lots of moxie, and last season he progressed a ton as a QB. The way he played the first half showed no signs of trailing off, until the injury. Which do you expect the modern day Kyle Orton to be like most - the healthy or injured last season Orton, or the rookie Orton? I would guess, if he's healthy, he'll be most like the healthy version from last year.30 games in his career, 15 as a rookie, in which he performed better than many 1st round picks who went on to be studs. Then 3 games at the end of '07 in which he improved each game, then the first 7 of '08 in which he looked pretty good. When he came back he looked terrible, but he honestly should not even have been playing. I would wonder why anyone would think otherwise? Do you believe not being able to plant for throws had no impact? Do you believe the first half was an aberration, and he really learned nothing over 3 seasons? I believe that type of thinking is rather ludicrous and illogical.From any sane point of view, his situation, as far as offensive cast goes, has only improved - and not just slightly, tremendously. It's hard to see a legitimate argument for his failure. I don't think Orton is a franchise QB, they are very rare IMO, but I think he can play at a high enough level for a team to win, and I tihnk he even could play well enough for a good team to win a Super Bowl. He is not a detriment to a team.

His first season in the league he didn't show flashes of anything. He threw 9 TD's in 15 games! After he threw 5 Int's the Bengals (a game they stayed in because of the defense), they didn't even let him do anything. He only exceeded 150 yards passing twice on the season! He got wins in games where he threw for 68 and 67 yards respectively, with 0 TD's and an Int in each!!!! They scaled back the entire offense because he wasn't good enough to run it, and just prayed the defense would help score and allow few enough points to win. As soon as Rex was healthy enough to play, they benched him. Then he gets to sit an entire season, and presumably learn. In 2007, it was much of the same and there was no reason to believe the guy had enough ability to make NFL throws. He didn't throw for even 200 yards in any of his games, with Berrian and Muhammad at WR. Berrian was averaging 68 yards a game before Orton, he got 68 yards and 1 TD in all 3 games combined with Orton. He was making the reads in these games and finding open receivers - he just couldn't get it there.His first 2 games of 08 it looked like we were getting much of the same. He didn't exceed 150 yards in either, and didn't throw a single TD. Then came the 5 game stretch where he looked like a legitimate NFL QB that could actually make a throw or two and keep D's honest. Then after he came back, he was the same old Orton again. His reads were worse than usual. Throws were inaccurate as always. He exceeded 150 yards in only 3 of his last 7 games. 1 of those he got 172 yards with 0 TD's and 2 Int's. The only D's he even had respectable games against were a Jacksonville team that had given up and Houston. He simply hasn't shown enough accuracy with any of his throws to be someone a team can run their offense through consistently. I'd say he's a guy that won't turn the ball over a lot, and won't make many mistakes, but he's not going to be a guy that's going to rack up significant yards or TD's consistently at any point in his career. Defenses will never respect his deep ball, and you'll always have quite a few guys in the box with him at QB. He's the type of guy that you wouldn't mind coming in for your team if the starter goes down, but the type of guy that a team will always be looking to replace if he is the starter because he's not going to win many games for you but he won't lose many for you either.

 

[DoubleG]

BTW per rotoworld:

SI's Peter King confirms that the key to the Broncos' trade of Jay Cutler was their belief in Kyle Orton.

Coach Josh McDaniels looked at the game tape of the available quarterbacks and came away more impressed with Orton than Jason Campbell or Luke McCown. They can say publicly that Chris Simms is in the running for the starting job, but it's Orton's to lose. Apr. 6 - 9:08 am et

Nobody was arguing that Orton isn't better than Campbell or McCown. Many would probably agree with that. The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies. You seriously think if Cutler was still there, Denver would have a "competition" between Simms and Cutler?? Of course not - that's because Cutler >>>>>> Simms, Orton, McCown, Campbell, etc. Cutler is a very good starting NFL QB, the rest are borderline starters at best. As has been pointed out countless times (mainly in Chase Stuart's phenomenal statistical posts) - Orton gives you a decent chance to not loose a game your defense has in hand. Cutler can win games for your team that your defense is playing poorly in. One QB can get you into the playoffs becuase of his defense, the other can do so despite defensive lapses. I'll take the QB who can win me games, over the one who might be able to not lose some.

The only thing that makes this discussion even close to fair trade is what the Bronocs manage to obtain via the draft - and only IF those players pan out into bonified NFL starters (and good ones at that). If the Broncos hit on one of the two 1st rounders AND that hit turns out to be a top 5-10 player at his position (which Cutler is, easily) - then MAYBE it was close - and even then, a QB is the most important position on the field. So if the Broncos land a top 10 LB or a top 5 safety, is it really even? Draft picks are over valued - especially at this time of year.

Two #1's and a #3 is a nice haul - but it still may not yield a franchise QB (or a player or players that have that kind of impact).

 

[ravnzfan]

Sure, well hindsight will tell the tale obviously. If Orton starts and plays well for Denver, it will be hard not to say this deal made sense for them particularly because, as you noted, they really had no choice but to trade Cutler after a certain point. But I suspect Orton won't play well [if he plays] and then McDaniels and Sanders better hope they hit home runs with all those draft choices, or else.

Woodsy, what makes you say this?If Orton can do what he did in the first half of last year in the windy city, with crappy WRs... why can't he do well in Mile High with Royal and Marshall?

I'm in aggreement here, SwitzOnce the whole fiasco became full blown and Cutler got his panties in a wad over Den discussing the possibilities of a trade, they had no choice than to make the best deal possible...I thought 2-1's and a 3 for Cutler + a 5 was excellent value for Denver, given the situation and potential suitors...

Only a handfull of teams really had the goods to make a move---and Denver was going to make sure it was an NFC team so as not to have to face Cutler but once every 4 yrs, Super Bowls not included

The pix have value in that they can either help improve the defense---super defensive value can be had in the bottom half of the 1st, assuming both teams play at/over .500 ball...or be used to acquire established players in those need positions (Marshall Faulk was traded for a 2rd+5th, and Denver added 2-1's and a 3!)

Better balance on both sides of the ball will go along way in helping Denver compete over the long haul---I think people forget just how pedestrian Jay Cutler was the last 4 weeks of the season...look up the numbers, they weren't pretty

Orton has more and better talent than he had in Chicago--Denver gets 4 cracks at the top 50 or so players over the next 2 years....IF they are smart w/those selections, they can be a better, more well rounded team....

if not....they'll be chasing Oakland, let alone SD in that division for years to come

 

[switz]

So are you asserting that Orton is a superior team mate/team leader compared to Cutler - that his "intangibles" are superior to Cutler?

Basically, yeah. I think Orton's teammates want to play better for him. Even defensive players have gone to bat for him, which to me indicates he had a very positive impact on the play of the team, from a motivational, inspirational point of view. He has a history of winning, dating throughout his entire history as a QB. That's something that goes beyond talent.Cutler on the other hand, seems selfish. He's far and away the better physical specimen. But he doesn't seem to get along with his teammates well, sometimes not at all. Someone pointed out BMarshall's comments, and while I agree much of what he said sounded like saying the right thing.. you gotta think he would have said he'd miss Cutler even just as a friend or something.

Given what I've seen from Maurile Tremblay on Cutler's partying and etc., I'm willing to consider the argument that Orton is more mature (though I don't know how he has comported himself in Chicago) and thus better able to lead a team - where/when did you see Cutler's lack of "intangibles" fail the Broncos during 2008?

The Broncos won with Cutler because of his physical talents. He could put a ball right where it needed to go. However, at times I think he did that when there were better options available, because he doesn't always think about the team, but goes for the more impressive play.It's not so much that Cutler's intangibles hurt the team, rather where Cutler won due to his physical abilities, Orton will win due to superior intangibles.

It's a trade off in strengths...

On a side note... the season Orton was 3rd string, he didn't comport himself well off the field at all. I think that demotion tested his inner strength, and made him mature in the long run. Perhaps Cutlers being traded may help him grow up.

 

[switz]

The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies.

What do you think of Cassel competing with Tyler Thigpen for a job? Just for comparison's sake....

 

[geoff8695]

BTW per rotoworld:

SI's Peter King confirms that the key to the Broncos' trade of Jay Cutler was their belief in Kyle Orton.

Coach Josh McDaniels looked at the game tape of the available quarterbacks and came away more impressed with Orton than Jason Campbell or Luke McCown. They can say publicly that Chris Simms is in the running for the starting job, but it's Orton's to lose. Apr. 6 - 9:08 am et

Nobody was arguing that Orton isn't better than Campbell or McCown. Many would probably agree with that. The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies. You seriously think if Cutler was still there, Denver would have a "competition" between Simms and Cutler?? Of course not - that's because Cutler >>>>>> Simms, Orton, McCown, Campbell, etc. Cutler is a very good starting NFL QB, the rest are borderline starters at best. As has been pointed out countless times (mainly in Chase Stuart's phenomenal statistical posts) - Orton gives you a decent chance to not loose a game your defense has in hand. Cutler can win games for your team that your defense is playing poorly in. One QB can get you into the playoffs becuase of his defense, the other can do so despite defensive lapses. I'll take the QB who can win me games, over the one who might be able to not lose some.

The only thing that makes this discussion even close to fair trade is what the Bronocs manage to obtain via the draft - and only IF those players pan out into bonified NFL starters (and good ones at that). If the Broncos hit on one of the two 1st rounders AND that hit turns out to be a top 5-10 player at his position (which Cutler is, easily) - then MAYBE it was close - and even then, a QB is the most important position on the field. So if the Broncos land a top 10 LB or a top 5 safety, is it really even? Draft picks are over valued - especially at this time of year.

Two #1's and a #3 is a nice haul - but it still may not yield a franchise QB (or a player or players that have that kind of impact).

Jay Cutler gives the Bears a legitimate chance to win a Superbowl in any given season (probably for the next decade). That's what a "franchise QB" does for you in the NFL.

 

[DoubleG]

The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies.

What do you think of Cassel competing with Tyler Thigpen for a job? Just for comparison's sake....

Hint: One guy is getting $14.65 million, the other $500k. Now, I'm horrible at math, but that's about a $14 million difference. Let's compare Orton's and Simms - shall we? How about a 2 year $6 million deal for one, while the other is making just under $1 million this year - and the one making more is NOT Kyle Orton. Now, if they sign Orton to a deal where he is making $14 million more than Simms, sure, I'll concede that he's not truly competing for a job that is obviously his. Re-post when they sign Kyle to that $16 million per, please.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm struggling with this developing notion that Jay Cutler = immature and not a team leader, while Kyle Orton = mature and a locker room asset.

Kyle Orton is probably one of the most notorious QBs in the league for his hard chargin', partyin' ways.

http://deadspin.com/tag/kyle-orton/

This is the guy who is going to upgrade the leadership in the Denver locker room?

 

[switz]

The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies.

What do you think of Cassel competing with Tyler Thigpen for a job? Just for comparison's sake....

Hint: One guy is getting $14.65 million, the other $500k. Now, I'm horrible at math, but that's about a $14 million difference. Let's compare Orton's and Simms - shall we? How about a 2 year $6 million deal for one, while the other is making just under $1 million this year - and the one making more is NOT Kyle Orton. Now, if they sign Orton to a deal where he is making $14 million more than Simms, sure, I'll concede that he's not truly competing for a job that is obviously his. Re-post when they sign Kyle to that $16 million per, please.

Nice non-answer.I didn't ask about who was making how much... but since you brought it up... if Cassel's contract indicates he will start, doesn't it make it even MORE odd that he is competing for a starting job?Or if money plays a role, then obviously it diminishes their being talk about a competition between the DEN QBs given that Simms is making more, obviously they have to say there is a competition.So why don't you just answer the question...

 

[DrJ]

So are you asserting that Orton is a superior team mate/team leader compared to Cutler - that his "intangibles" are superior to Cutler?

Basically, yeah. I think Orton's teammates want to play better for him. Even defensive players have gone to bat for him, which to me indicates he had a very positive impact on the play of the team, from a motivational, inspirational point of view. He has a history of winning, dating throughout his entire history as a QB. That's something that goes beyond talent.Cutler on the other hand, seems selfish. He's far and away the better physical specimen. But he doesn't seem to get along with his teammates well, sometimes not at all. Someone pointed out BMarshall's comments, and while I agree much of what he said sounded like saying the right thing.. you gotta think he would have said he'd miss Cutler even just as a friend or something.

Given what I've seen from Maurile Tremblay on Cutler's partying and etc., I'm willing to consider the argument that Orton is more mature (though I don't know how he has comported himself in Chicago) and thus better able to lead a team - where/when did you see Cutler's lack of "intangibles" fail the Broncos during 2008?

The Broncos won with Cutler because of his physical talents. He could put a ball right where it needed to go. However, at times I think he did that when there were better options available, because he doesn't always think about the team, but goes for the more impressive play.It's not so much that Cutler's intangibles hurt the team, rather where Cutler won due to his physical abilities, Orton will win due to superior intangibles.

It's a trade off in strengths...

On a side note... the season Orton was 3rd string, he didn't comport himself well off the field at all. I think that demotion tested his inner strength, and made him mature in the long run. Perhaps Cutlers being traded may help him grow up.

There was a stretch of games where Kyle Orton was 5-0 while having the following stats:12 of 26 for 137 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int

8 for 13 for 67 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int

15 of 26 for 136 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int

14 of 28 for 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int

6 of 17 for 67 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int.

He also had 4 fumbles and lost 2 of them during those games.

Are you seriously suggesting that it was intangibles that won these games?

He averaged 124 yards, .6 TD's, and .9 Int's per game over that season and went 10-5 that season. Are you seriously going to suggest that it was his moxie that won those games, and it wasn't a wasted opportunity for a great defense that could have actually done something if not for having one of the worst starting QB's of all time playing for them?

The Bears squandered a few MASSIVE opportunities because they had guys like Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman at QB. And when they finally address the situation, people suggest they are dealing away "winners". Kind of amusing.

 

[switz]

I'm struggling with this developing notion that Jay Cutler = immature and not a team leader, while Kyle Orton = mature and a locker room asset.

Kyle Orton is probably one of the most notorious QBs in the league for his hard chargin', partyin' ways.

http://deadspin.com/tag/kyle-orton/

This is the guy who is going to upgrade the leadership in the Denver locker room?

Notice that the partying stopped like two years ago?

 

[bryan215]

In the end, Cutler's floor is lower then Orton's ceiling, and Orton's floor is actually pretty high.

How high do you believe Orton's floor is? I'd say it's career backup/fill in type QB. Outside of a handful of games in his entire career, he's done nothing to suggest he's more than that. It's possible that he could be more than that as well, but it's also possible that the 4-5 games are an abberation and the other 30 games are a more accurate sample of what he's capable of producing consistently.

Most people would have said this about Warner, Cassell, etc.All it takes is the right team, the right system, and the right personell to turn a guy who should be a backup based on physical gifts...and make him a good NFL QB to possible Pro-Bowler.

Witht eh pass catching RB's Denver has collected, a solid running game, a possible star #2 in the making in Royal, Gaffney, Stokley, and BMarshall...the Denver offense is pretty stacked(I'm not including TS since he may get traded).

Its not hard to believe that Orton or Simms couldn't have a Cassell like season. The main problem is the defense still needs help...but a good draft could quickly fix things given they have fixed their secondary for the most part.

 

[DrJ]

In the end, Cutler's floor is lower then Orton's ceiling, and Orton's floor is actually pretty high.

How high do you believe Orton's floor is? I'd say it's career backup/fill in type QB. Outside of a handful of games in his entire career, he's done nothing to suggest he's more than that. It's possible that he could be more than that as well, but it's also possible that the 4-5 games are an abberation and the other 30 games are a more accurate sample of what he's capable of producing consistently.

Most people would have said this about Warner, Cassell, etc.All it takes is the right team, the right system, and the right personell to turn a guy who should be a backup based on physical gifts...and make him a good NFL QB to possible Pro-Bowler.

Witht eh pass catching RB's Denver has collected, a solid running game, a possible star #2 in the making in Royal, Gaffney, Stokley, and BMarshall...the Denver offense is pretty stacked(I'm not including TS since he may get traded).

Its not hard to believe that Orton or Simms couldn't have a Cassell like season. The main problem is the defense still needs help...but a good draft could quickly fix things given they have fixed their secondary for the most part.

That's fine, but you would be saying the same thing about Campbell, or Quinn. There's nothing special about Orton himself that makes you believe he's the one that will do it, just that it's possible and there's some nice talent and hopefully a nice system so you hope your guy is the new Martz and can turn anyone into a quality chucker.

 

[CutlerToCutler]

So funny that for year after year after year they Bears are chastised for having garbage at qb. They go get one and now they gave up too much.Ill take the proven player over draft picks anyday.

They could trade for the all-pro team and people would say they gave up too much. I quit trying to get my point across concerning this matter. Who cares. First round players are very far from guaranteed, and even further from a guaranteed pro bowl qb, so far. Funny thing is, I don't remember anyone talking up Orton before this trade. Now, everyone wants to jump in and say the Bears got juked and the Broncos are getting a pretty good qb, along with some guaranteed 1st rounders. WTF! Most Bears fans, who watch every game, know Orton is average at best and will never be anything more. And IN before the :rollseyes:

 

[CutlerToCutler]

In the end, Cutler's floor is lower then Orton's ceiling, and Orton's floor is actually pretty high.

How high do you believe Orton's floor is? I'd say it's career backup/fill in type QB. Outside of a handful of games in his entire career, he's done nothing to suggest he's more than that. It's possible that he could be more than that as well, but it's also possible that the 4-5 games are an abberation and the other 30 games are a more accurate sample of what he's capable of producing consistently.

Most people would have said this about Warner, Cassell, etc.All it takes is the right team, the right system, and the right personell to turn a guy who should be a backup based on physical gifts...and make him a good NFL QB to possible Pro-Bowler.

Witht eh pass catching RB's Denver has collected, a solid running game, a possible star #2 in the making in Royal, Gaffney, Stokley, and BMarshall...the Denver offense is pretty stacked(I'm not including TS since he may get traded).

Its not hard to believe that Orton or Simms couldn't have a Cassell like season. The main problem is the defense still needs help...but a good draft could quickly fix things given they have fixed their secondary for the most part.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Who Got The Better Of The Jay Cutler Trade?

Chicago with a bullet.Only two 25 year old quarterbacks have thrown for more than Jay Cutler in the history of the National Football League. One is already in the Pro Football Hall Of Fame, Dan Marino. The other will have a bust in the NFL HOF, Peyton Manning.

No one has suggested that Orton > then Cutler so we go to the next portion of the deal, the draft choices, and specifically lets zero in on those two first rounders that some are making way too big a deal out of.

Lets go back ten years and look at every 18th pick in the first round but we'll also peek at the three picks in front of the 18th pick, 15, 16, and 17, along with the three picks taken after the 18th pick, 19, 20, and 21. We'll find out the percentage of past picks who have blown up or busted along with those who have had mixed results from those picks to try and guage what sort of 'reasonable' return Denver can expect from those two first round picks that they will get from Chicago.

From last year, still to early to tell who will bust but so far none have blown up so this is just to see what went off the board last year.

2008

15 Branden Albert Chiefs G Virginia

16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Cardinals DB Tennessee State

17 Gosder Cherilus Lions T Boston College

18 Joe Flacco Ravens QB Delaware

19 Jeff Otah Panthers T Pittsburgh

20 Aqib Talib Buccaneers DB Kansas

21 Sam Baker Falcons T USC

These guys have been in the league for two years, so far it appears that Hall is working out well with possibly Moss looking like a buster with the rest giving a generous 'mixed result' grade.

2007

15 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB Florida State

16 Justin Harrell Packers DT Tennessee

17 Jarvis Moss Broncos DE Florida

18 Leon Hall Bengals DB Michigan

19 Michael Griffin Titans DB Texas

20 Aaron Ross Giants DB Texas

21 Reggie Nelson Jaguars DB Florida

OK, now we can begin to impliment a firm grading curve on these guys. From this group both Tye Hill and Cromarte look very good but Lo Maroney and Bobby Taylor and Samba Tamba look like busters.

2006

15 Tye Hill Rams DB Clemson

16 Jason Allen Dolphins DB Tennessee

17 Chad Greenway Vikings LB Iowa

18 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB Ohio State

19 Antonio Cromartie Chargers DB Florida State

20 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE Penn State

21 Laurence Maroney Patriots RB Minnesota

I think it would be a stretch to say that Derrick Johnson has blown up but he's a solid, if unspectacular, starter. Their are some definitive busts from this group though.

2005

15 Derrick O. Johnson Chiefs LB Texas

16 Travis Johnson Texans DT Florida State

17 David Pollack Bengals DE Georgia

18 Erasmus James Vikings DE Wisconsin

19 Alex Barron Rams T Florida State

20 Marcus Spears Cowboys DE Louisiana State

21 Matt Jones Jaguars WR Arkansas

An excellent grouping with only one true bust in Udeze. D.J. hasn't truly blown up and he nearly lost his job before the start of last year. Clayton had a great rookie season then faded.

2004

15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers WR Louisiana State

16 Shawn Andrews Eagles T Arkansas

17 D.J. Williams Broncos LB Miami (FL)

18 Will Smith Saints DE Ohio State

19 Vernon Carey Dolphins G Miami (FL)

20 Kenechi Udeze Vikings DE USC

21 Vince Wilfork Patriots DT Miami (FL)

Only Troy P blew up. Faine didn't work for Cleveland but was serviceable for the Saints and Foster was a near buster but I lost track of him. I think he did work out eventually but I may have missed if he fizzled out.

2003

15 Jerome McDougle Eagles DE Miami (FL)

16 Troy Polamalu Steelers DB USC

17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals WR Penn State

18 Calvin Pace Cardinals DE Wake Forest

19 Kyle Boller Ravens QB California

20 George Foster Broncos T Georgia

21 Jeff Faine Browns C Notre Dame

Javon had a few good seasons and Buchanon is still sticking around.

2002

15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee

16 William Green Browns RB Boston College

17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL)

18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State

19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii

20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State

21 Dan Graham Patriots TE Colorado

Without question, the best group from this part of the draft with only Gardner busting. Santana, Archuleta, and Backus have had their moments.

2001

15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson

16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL)

17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan

18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan

19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas

20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State

21 Nate Clements Bills DB Ohio State

I honestly don't know how to grade drafting a kicker in the first round especially one who didn't live up to the hype but Sebastion has stuck around. Delta busted with the Broncos but he's stuck around. Odd that both Chad and Shaun didn't do much for the first few years they were in the league but had decent careers later down the line.

2000

15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California

16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State

17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State

18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall

19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama

20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma

21 Sylvester Morris Chiefs WR Jackson State

Booger did OK with the Bucs, the Freak blew up. I'm not sure about Luke and Woody didn't stick with the Pats but did land with the Lions if I'm not mistaken.

1999

15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT Louisiana State

16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida

17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College

18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia

19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame

20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina

21 L.J. Shelton Cardinals T Eastern Michigan

Ten years. Its pretty evident that just having a pick in the 15 to 21 range is far from a sure thing let alone assures getting a proven starting player. Jay Cutler is a proven starter. The credentials he has amassed in three years would make him the best of the above selections over a decade.

Its very doubtful the Broncos will hit the middle of the bullseye with the 18th pick in this draft and more than likely the pick they get next year will fall in the 15 to 21 range and you can see the odds of that pick making it are 50/50.

Chicago won this trade with an emphatic slam dunk in my opinion, err my opinion backed up by a decade's worth of draft data that is.

 

[-baller]

big list of players.

excellent post, and probably exactly the right way to look at it.you'd be getting two of those guys, plus orton, plus a third in exchange for cutler.if cutler's as good as his raw #'s in denver, it'd be like one of those fantasy trades where a guy offers you a ton of junk for one stud, but the flip side is cutler's not as good as his raw #'s in denver, as far as contributing to a winner,and orton becomes a solid winner in denver a la pennington in miami, while mcdaniels picks up wilfork/haynesworth + polamalu.I guess we'll see.

 

[DoubleG]

The fact that there is even a rumored competition between Simms and Orton says more about Orton's deficiencies.

What do you think of Cassel competing with Tyler Thigpen for a job? Just for comparison's sake....

Hint: One guy is getting $14.65 million, the other $500k. Now, I'm horrible at math, but that's about a $14 million difference. Let's compare Orton's and Simms - shall we? How about a 2 year $6 million deal for one, while the other is making just under $1 million this year - and the one making more is NOT Kyle Orton. Now, if they sign Orton to a deal where he is making $14 million more than Simms, sure, I'll concede that he's not truly competing for a job that is obviously his. Re-post when they sign Kyle to that $16 million per, please.

Nice non-answer.I didn't ask about who was making how much... but since you brought it up... if Cassel's contract indicates he will start, doesn't it make it even MORE odd that he is competing for a starting job?Or if money plays a role, then obviously it diminishes their being talk about a competition between the DEN QBs given that Simms is making more, obviously they have to say there is a competition.So why don't you just answer the question...

C'mon switz, you're smarter than this. I didn't think I had to spell it out, but...Cassel is NOT competing for the starting job, regardless as to what coach-speak has come from KC. That was the point of showing the numbers. When one guy is making $14 million more than the other, it doesn't matter what the coaches say - they aren't paying him $14.6 million to compete for a job - they're paying him $14.6 to be the starting QB. So in direct answer to your question "What do I think about Cassel competing for the starting job?" I don't think he's competing - most everyone (except for a select few - mainly Thigpen FF owners and familiy members) realizes that a coach isn't generally going to say to a new guy "Here you go!" while the previous year's starter is on the roster. Orton, on the other hand, IS competing for a starting job - and the fact that he and Simms are making about the same money (actually Simms is making twice as much) bears (no pun intended) that out. Wait until camp starts and see who is taking a majority of first team reps. I wouldn't be suprised if Simms and Orton were sharing almost 50/50 - I would be shocked if Thigpen got more than a token number of first team snaps. The point is that there really is no point in trying to compare the two situations as they are nothing alike. In one case, you have an orginization that traded away their young premier QB, in the other you have an orginization that traded FOR him. Denver liked Orton better than a small sample of mediocre QBs that other teams were willing to offer - which says...well, that they like him better than two other mediocre NFL QBs. It doesn't say that they liked him better than Simms or that he is even the guy they want to start - it simply says that of the 3 teams they were talking to, Orton fit better than the other two - it doesn't even mean he fits better than the other people on their roster already (or better than someone they may draft) - just that he has some perceived value to the Broncos - could be as a backup, someone to compete, or fill in if Simms health doesn't hold up, or if a drafted QB needs time to develop.

 

[switz]

Cassel is NOT competing for the starting job, regardless as to what coach-speak has come from KC. Orton, on the other hand, IS competing for a starting job.

Because you say so, right?Orton isn't competing for the starting job, it's his. If they really thought Simms was potential starting material, there's no way they would have even wanted Orton in the deal. The whole reason they were looking at different QBs is because Simms isn't starting material.QB competition is no more coachspeak in KC than it is in DEN.

 

[DrJ]

Cassel is NOT competing for the starting job, regardless as to what coach-speak has come from KC. Orton, on the other hand, IS competing for a starting job.

Because you say so, right?Orton isn't competing for the starting job, it's his. If they really thought Simms was potential starting material, there's no way they would have even wanted Orton in the deal. The whole reason they were looking at different QBs is because Simms isn't starting material.QB competition is no more coachspeak in KC than it is in DEN.

For Orton's sake, he better hope so. I'm not sure he's capable of winning a truly open QB competition with just about anyone.

 

[Jason Wood]

Cassel is NOT competing for the starting job, regardless as to what coach-speak has come from KC.

Orton, on the other hand, IS competing for a starting job.

Because you say so, right?Orton isn't competing for the starting job, it's his. If they really thought Simms was potential starting material, there's no way they would have even wanted Orton in the deal. The whole reason they were looking at different QBs is because Simms isn't starting material.

QB competition is no more coachspeak in KC than it is in DEN.

How can you possibly say that with any confidence?1) Orton doesn't think the job is his: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4047553

2) Simms is paid 3x what Orton makes

3) Neither QB is good enough, or proven enough, to be declared the starter without outperforming the other in camp

 

[KoolKat]

Chicago and it's not even close. To get excited about draft prospects especially in a weak draft class like the upcoming one is just silly. Sorry Denver fans but getting rid of a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB is not smart. You all hyped Cutler and defended him to the ends of the Earth but now many are acting like the owner is a genius for pulling this off. Chicago is now a Division cnotender, what is Denver?

Rebuilding

fixed

 

[CA_7]

Seems to me that the folks that think that Denver got the better end of the deal because Orton has intangibles and is a "winner" are missing the difference between the Chicago running game and D compared to Denver. Orton was smart in that he let the defense and running game win games and wouldn't make the same dumb mistakes Grossman did. How is that going to work when he needs to pass to win games because of his horrible defense and having Buckhalter an Lamont Jordan to rely on? Is his heart and intangibles going to mount a comeback in the games when his D gives up 21+ points? "a QB's best friend is a defense. Just ask Kerry Collins."

I think it is fairly unanimous that Cutler is the better talent. Chicago can also thank Denver used the first three (critical) years to development him as an NFL QB and trade him for draft picks with unknown considerations. Chicago will not lose many or possibly any games because Cutler throws a few INTs by forcing the ball but they sure have a better chance of coming back in games that their franchise QB can carry them on their shoulders and make some come from behind game winning drives.

 

[Banger]

Seems to me that the folks that think that Denver got the better end of the deal because Orton has intangibles and is a "winner" are missing the difference between the Chicago running game and D compared to Denver. Orton was smart in that he let the defense and running game win games and wouldn't make the same dumb mistakes Grossman did. How is that going to work when he needs to pass to win games because of his horrible defense and having Buckhalter an Lamont Jordan to rely on? Is his heart and intangibles going to mount a comeback in the games when his D gives up 21+ points? "a QB's best friend is a defense. Just ask Kerry Collins."

Isn't Rex Grossman a winner? He took the Bears to the Super Bowl, Orton didn't get his team to the playoffs. Grossman's winning % > Orton

 

[CA_7]

Seems to me that the folks that think that Denver got the better end of the deal because Orton has intangibles and is a "winner" are missing the difference between the Chicago running game and D compared to Denver. Orton was smart in that he let the defense and running game win games and wouldn't make the same dumb mistakes Grossman did. How is that going to work when he needs to pass to win games because of his horrible defense and having Buckhalter an Lamont Jordan to rely on? Is his heart and intangibles going to mount a comeback in the games when his D gives up 21+ points? "a QB's best friend is a defense. Just ask Kerry Collins."

Isn't Rex Grossman a winner? He took the Bears to the Super Bowl, Orton didn't get his team to the playoffs. Grossman's winning % > Orton

Yep. In that case Trent Dilfer is a "winner" too and his intangibles might make him better than Drew Bress, Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler

 

[DoubleG]

Cassel is NOT competing for the starting job, regardless as to what coach-speak has come from KC.

Orton, on the other hand, IS competing for a starting job.

Because you say so, right?Orton isn't competing for the starting job, it's his. If they really thought Simms was potential starting material, there's no way they would have even wanted Orton in the deal. The whole reason they were looking at different QBs is because Simms isn't starting material.

QB competition is no more coachspeak in KC than it is in DEN.

And therin is the flaw in your logic. The Broncos weren't looking for QBs - the Bears were (and the Redskins, and the Bucs, etc.) The Broncos did not say "Okay, let's dump Cutler and go get somebody better - like Kyle Orton!" Since you obviously didn't read my previous post in relation as to why the Broncos wanted Orton:

It doesn't say that they liked him better than Simms or that he is even the guy they want to start - it simply says that of the 3 teams they were talking to, Orton fit better than the other two - it doesn't even mean he fits better than the other people on their roster already (or better than someone they may draft) - just that he has some perceived value to the Broncos - could be as a backup, someone to compete, or fill in if Simms health doesn't hold up, or if a drafted QB needs time to develop.

Obviously you have decided that Orton is the savior for Denver and their new franchise QB - and nothing anyone says, nor the relevant facts are going to change that. Is Orton a decent "game manager" and servicable QB? When healthy and when he has a good RB to keep the opposing team honest, and when his defense plays fairly well, yes. Most of those variables do not exsist in Denver, however. Cassel>>>Thigpen. Orton>? Simms (and neither is probably as good long term as the QB Denver will draft.

You are of course entitled to your own opinion, even if it refuses to find its basis in fact.

 

[switz]

And therin is the flaw in your logic. The Broncos weren't looking for QBs - the Bears were (and the Redskins, and the Bucs, etc.) The Broncos did not say "Okay, let's dump Cutler and go get somebody better - like Kyle Orton!"

You're missing the point. Of course the Broncos weren't thinking along those lines, BUT when it became apparent that they weren't going to resolve things with Cutler, they also realized when they traded him they needed a QB in return BECAUSE they didn't have a starting calibre QB on their team. If they really thought Simms was starting material, there would be no need to acquire a QB in return. Heck, with the two first round picks, they could draft a QB - but they obviously felt they needed to acquire a QB in the trade.

Since you obviously didn't read my previous post in relation as to why the Broncos wanted Orton:

It doesn't say that they liked him better than Simms or that he is even the guy they want to start - it simply says that of the 3 teams they were talking to, Orton fit better than the other two - it doesn't even mean he fits better than the other people on their roster already (or better than someone they may draft) - just that he has some perceived value to the Broncos - could be as a backup, someone to compete, or fill in if Simms health doesn't hold up, or if a drafted QB needs time to develop.

I read it, I just disagree with the bolded part. The teams that we know DEN talked to, all those trades involved acquiring a QB in return. So they obviously felt all three potential QBs (Orton, Quinn, Cambell) are better than what they had on the roster aside from Cutler. There is no evidence that they ever thought Simms was potential starting material at all, nada, nothing, zilch.

Obviously you have decided that Orton is the savior for Denver and their new franchise QB - and nothing anyone says, nor the relevant facts are going to change that. Is Orton a decent "game manager" and servicable QB? When healthy and when he has a good RB to keep the opposing team honest, and when his defense plays fairly well, yes. Most of those variables do not exsist in Denver, however.

I don't think Orton is the savior, in fact it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a move to draft a QB. I've said time and again that Orton is NOT a franchise QB. However, he is far better than you, and many others, are giving him credit for. If Denver decides to use those picks wisely on defense, then I believe that they can win with Orton at the helm.

 

[Rockchild]

It seems that this was a perfect trade as Denver fans think they won and so do the Bears fans.