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Who is Allen Hurns? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
As I said in the sentence directly following the one you're commenting on, they are not the same receiver. And in the sentence following that, they have a similar opportunity. If you don't like the Boldin comparison, how about Keenan Allen, who was drafted as the fourth receiver on the Chargers and got an opportunity because of injuries ahead of him. And before you start missing the point again, I know Keenan Allen's game isn't the same as Hurns'.
Let me put some numbers out there. I think it is extremely likely (> 50% probability) that Hurns has a better season than any of the other receivers getting picked up on the waiver wire in week 1. I think it is reasonably likely (> 30% probability) that Hurns will have a season at least as good as Cecil Shorts had last year (66/777/3). That's pretty good for a waiver wire pick-up. It is also possible (> 10% probability) that he has a season as good as Keenan Allen did in 2013 (70/1046/8). And it's not impossible ( > 2% probability) for him to have a season as good as Boldin's rookie season was (101/1377/8).
What if Rod Smith or Wes Welker in their rookie years had gotten the opportunity Hurns has? The fact that he was undrafted doesn't mean he can't play.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Route running is similar? Hurns' routes were not at all considered a strength pre-draft. I'm not even sure there's enough evidence out there to consider them a strength now.
From his NFL draft profile:
"WEAKNESSES
Narrow-framed and non-physical. Struggles to separate against tight man coverage. Lacks polish and precision in his routes. Average burst out of his breaks. Is not a burner -- limited long speed. Soft blocker.
DRAFT PROJECTION Round 7-Priority free agent
BOTTOM LINE
An underneath, zone receiver, Hurns emerged as the Hurricanes' top go-to receiver as a senior. Runs a lot of simple, stationary, short-to-intermediate routes and could have a more difficult time shaking NFL cornerbacks."
Almost everyone had Boldin pegged as a high draft pick in spite of his combine. Almost everyone had Hurns as borderline draftable after his combine. Combine numbers and college stats aside, there was a huge divide in how these two prospects were viewed by the collective scouting community before their rookie years.
I don't think that's the be-all-end-all of the discussion, but I don't think that's something that should be brushed aside as inconsequential, either.
I sense some some negativity from those who didn't draft (stretch but not crazy given the guy's preseason performance) or grab him off the waiver wire this week.
He could be this year's Frisman Jackson or...Anquan Boldin. Hell...he could be Josh Gordon sans weed convictions.
Ease up on the naysaying and give the guy his due. How many TDs have you made on your first two catches in the NFL? Oh wait...NONE.
He could be this year's Frisman Jackson or...Anquan Boldin. Hell...he could be Josh Gordon sans weed convictions.
Ease up on the naysaying and give the guy his due. How many TDs have you made on your first two catches in the NFL? Oh wait...NONE.
jurb26
Footballguy
Right on. I have a feeling many are simply trying to be right rather than get it right with this. I feel I've said that before in this thread, actually. Like Hurns or not, the guy has opportunity. For an undrafted rookie that is near impossible to come by. Better yet, he is taking FULL advantage of that opportunity. All this bickering about why he wasn't drafted and why he has the opportunity doesn't change the fact that it exists and he is playing well. Will that continue? I don't know. How can it possibly hurt to roster this guy and find out though? Oh, wait, many refused to do that when given the chance months ago. That's right.Todem said:
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
It's not "bickering" just because you find it irrelevant.
If people are going to bring out Boldin as a comp, then that's part of the context of that comparison.
Opportunity cost to roster him obviously depends on league (dynasty vs redraft, starting requirements, roster depth, etc.). I actually agree (and posted earlier in this thread) that he's likely a decent pickup in most redraft formats, but dynasty is a different matter entirely.
Now that the cheap pickup time has passed for most regardless of format, the discussion is naturally going to turn towards what he might do moving forward. Is he likely to perform well enough that he's still a viable buy low trade target? What's his long-term opportunity (both later this year when the playoffs will be happening, and for future years for dynasty folk)?
Those conversations require some sort of projections, and all projections require information. There's little enough of that, so all we can get is relevant to some extent.
If people are going to bring out Boldin as a comp, then that's part of the context of that comparison.
Opportunity cost to roster him obviously depends on league (dynasty vs redraft, starting requirements, roster depth, etc.). I actually agree (and posted earlier in this thread) that he's likely a decent pickup in most redraft formats, but dynasty is a different matter entirely.
Now that the cheap pickup time has passed for most regardless of format, the discussion is naturally going to turn towards what he might do moving forward. Is he likely to perform well enough that he's still a viable buy low trade target? What's his long-term opportunity (both later this year when the playoffs will be happening, and for future years for dynasty folk)?
Those conversations require some sort of projections, and all projections require information. There's little enough of that, so all we can get is relevant to some extent.
cstu
Footballguy
No one is saying he's a bad player. For the Jags he was a great signing. All I'm talking about in this thread is his fantasy outlook, which I don't think is as great as other people do.
jurb26
Footballguy
I haven't really seen anyone give an outlook here so I'm not sure what this means. What do you see his outlook as?
Understood.
However, it is extremely difficult for me to ignore the potential production versus cost. I would bet that 99% of owners out there did not draft this guy and picked him up on the cheap. Grab and stash potential is huge especially if Bortles gets his shot. They looked in sync during preseason and most likely work out after practices. Just guessing but Hurns seems like a hungry guy and willing to put in extra work.
All of the other Jax receivers are either in trouble or injury prone. He's in a great situation.
cstu
Footballguy
It looks like Lee is fine and Robinson is healthy, so I think around 4 catches for 60 yards would be typical. He's not going to surprise defenses like he did week 1.
cstu
Footballguy
Hurns had looked good, but long-term I don't think he's athletic enough to be a valuable fantasy guy. Especially when he's on the same team as two other more talented rookie WR's.
I like what Hurns has done in spite of not being drafted but the reality is that 6-1, 200 lb. WR's who run a 4.5 are a dime a dozen. However, if he can get bigger and more physical without losing speed he has potential.
Maybe I'm wrong and he's the next Chad Johnson.
3quinox
Footballguy
I'm not talking pedigree or past production I'm talking straight up physical tools. What is the best comparison for Hurns to a relatively successful WR sometime in the league? I think we all know Hurnn's attributes, sub par 4.50, maybe has a hard time separating in tight coverage, small compared to typical NFL standards. Pros are that he does all the right things, has great hands, and adjust well to the catch.
Otis
Footballguy
for later
cstu
Footballguy
mjr
Footballguy
I understand that an unknown player will have a distinct "surprise advantage" when nobody expects the kind of production Hurns turned in last week. But then again, I have to question those who say this is the only reason Hurns put up decent stats (pointing to his unproductive 2nd half as proof).
Blackmon and Sanders are suspended, Shorts was ruled out for the game. Marcedes isn't exactly a big time threat... who were the Eagles so worried about defending to the point that they left Hurns to roam free as a forgotten man? It really should have been no secret to me, you or the Eagles themselves that if Jacksonville really wanted to have any chance to win the game that receivers like Lee and Hurns were going to have to step up and make some plays for the team.
I also don't think Hurns will benefit greatly with Shorts and Lee out, at least now that he has proven capable of making big plays. In fact, I think a guy like Hurns needs those guys back in the lineup. I think he can produce much better with at least some attention diverted the other way.
But it looks to me like the kid can actually play.
I was watching one of his TDs on replay, and it's hard for me not to come away at least a little impressed. Hurns caught the ball while twisting in mid air, and in one swift motion he immediately began running towards the end zone while attempting to regain his balance between planting feet on the 9 yard line and the 5 yard line. During those 4 yards of regaining balance he had 3 defenders closing in on him, each coming from a different direction. Yet this kid seemed to know exactly where he was every step of the way. Two of those defenders slammed into each other (as would have the 3rd had he not stopped running full speed) and all they managed to get on him was his ankle. Hurns then stretched out from the 2 to break the goal line for the score with just one of those defenders clinging to his foot.
I'm not saying Hurns is the next Colston, Boldin or AJ Green. Hell, for all I know maybe he really is the Ogletree 2.0 and I'm the fool. But it wouldn't surprise me either if Hurns puts up a few more great performances this year. I can see him being productive, yet sporadic. I'm just hoping he pops off mid season when I can use him as my bye week filler....
Blackmon and Sanders are suspended, Shorts was ruled out for the game. Marcedes isn't exactly a big time threat... who were the Eagles so worried about defending to the point that they left Hurns to roam free as a forgotten man? It really should have been no secret to me, you or the Eagles themselves that if Jacksonville really wanted to have any chance to win the game that receivers like Lee and Hurns were going to have to step up and make some plays for the team.
I also don't think Hurns will benefit greatly with Shorts and Lee out, at least now that he has proven capable of making big plays. In fact, I think a guy like Hurns needs those guys back in the lineup. I think he can produce much better with at least some attention diverted the other way.
But it looks to me like the kid can actually play.
I was watching one of his TDs on replay, and it's hard for me not to come away at least a little impressed. Hurns caught the ball while twisting in mid air, and in one swift motion he immediately began running towards the end zone while attempting to regain his balance between planting feet on the 9 yard line and the 5 yard line. During those 4 yards of regaining balance he had 3 defenders closing in on him, each coming from a different direction. Yet this kid seemed to know exactly where he was every step of the way. Two of those defenders slammed into each other (as would have the 3rd had he not stopped running full speed) and all they managed to get on him was his ankle. Hurns then stretched out from the 2 to break the goal line for the score with just one of those defenders clinging to his foot.
I'm not saying Hurns is the next Colston, Boldin or AJ Green. Hell, for all I know maybe he really is the Ogletree 2.0 and I'm the fool. But it wouldn't surprise me either if Hurns puts up a few more great performances this year. I can see him being productive, yet sporadic. I'm just hoping he pops off mid season when I can use him as my bye week filler....
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but Hurns' first game reminded me a lot of Denarius Moore's first game vs. Buffalo. Moore was a 5th round pick, but I think it's a decent comp.
EBF
Footballguy
As Chad would say, "Child please." Ocho was super talented. Far more than Hurns IMO.
It seems like a lazy comparison, but I think Hurns has some similarities to Shorts. Perhaps not as compact or explosive. Both guys are marginal athletes who compensate with good fluidity. I think Hurns is a solid vertical route runner. Not really a daunting athlete, but smooth and efficient.
I have him on two teams and I'd sell if I got a good offer, but thus far I've only received weak nibbles, so I'm holding. With the way the situation has gone in Jax, he could put together a few more solid games and maybe pump up his trade value a bit more. That's what I'm hoping for, as he's probably not a long term hold in my view despite looking like a pretty decent player. Too likely that he winds up being another mediocrity ala Kenbrell Thompkins and I don't like his chances of holding off Lee and Robinson permanently.
CalBear
Footballguy
If in the remaining 15 games he puts up 60 catches for 900 yards, he will have been among the top free-agent pickups for the year. And he could do that, which is why people are excited about him.
saintfool
Dead sexy
History - recent or otherwise - of injury is now "injury prone"? Lee played hurt last year but was still pretty effective. Robinson didn't miss a game the last two years at Penn St. He's nursed a hamstring injury this offseason and has been getting into game shape the last few weeks. Neither player is injury prone.
Insein
Footballguy
I will say having watched the Eagles game(and getting exceedingly angry during the first quarter), Hurns definitely benefited from some blown coverages. This was not uncommon for the Eagles secondary last year to blow assignments on 3rd WRs. See Leonard Hankerson, Eddie Royal, and Donnie Avery at the beginning of last year.
So while I have picked him up for cheap, I'm not expecting superstar numbers but if he has a Cecil Shorts 2012 type year, I'd be happy.
So while I have picked him up for cheap, I'm not expecting superstar numbers but if he has a Cecil Shorts 2012 type year, I'd be happy.
John Bender
Footballguy
I'm all in on Hurns. Starting over Joique Bell this week.
Lets go Big Play Al
Lets go Big Play Al
az_prof
Footballguy
The problem here is that you are basing his route running on some pre-draft analysis by some talking head. I am basing it on observation during preseason and now 1 regular season game.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
That's fine. I have my own personal impressions of his route running as well.
If that's all you have to back up your claim that Hurns runs routes as well as Boldin did when he was a rookie, you should probably add that disclaimer to your post since it doesn't exactly appear to be the consensus opinion.
Xue
Footballguy
Marvin Jones, Rod Streater, Laurent Robinson, Domenik Hixon. Hurns is a lot closer to these guys than he is to Boldin.
Boone22
Footballguy
Coach Gus Bradley said that Allen Hurns will be the Jaguars' No. 2 receiver even when Cecil Shorts (hamstring) returns.
It's the first we've heard of Hurns being ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart. Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco says it's because Hurns has a better grasp of the offense after playing for OC Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami. If true, it would make the UDFA a far more intriguing hold than previously thought. For now, however, it doesn't really matter as Shorts does not appear close to getting over his latest injury. Hurns is going to start opposite Lee against the bad Redskins secondary on Sunday and has some WR4 appeal.
Related: Marqise Lee
Source: ESPN.com Sep 13 - 12:03 AM
It's the first we've heard of Hurns being ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart. Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco says it's because Hurns has a better grasp of the offense after playing for OC Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami. If true, it would make the UDFA a far more intriguing hold than previously thought. For now, however, it doesn't really matter as Shorts does not appear close to getting over his latest injury. Hurns is going to start opposite Lee against the bad Redskins secondary on Sunday and has some WR4 appeal.
Related: Marqise Lee
Source: ESPN.com Sep 13 - 12:03 AM
Xue
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure this was directed at me. But I'm probably not sharp enough to know. LOL.I wonder if you're willing to say Hurns is better than Lee. Try reconciling that with your belief of what Lee is to you vs what he actually is as pointed out by me.
Anyone making comparisons to Boldin is about as arbitrary and shortsighted as it gets.
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cusefan115
Footballguy
Boldin was a round 2 pick. I'm not sure anyone was underestimating him. Sure, most people still liked Bryant Johnson and Peter Warrick more but Boldin was a heralded prospect.
jurb26
Footballguy
It's not directed towards anyone in-particular. I'm willing to say Hurns could be better than Lee. Maybe he is. Actually I've already said that. This is about opportunity and who is going to capitalize on that opportunity. I don't get points for being right on a call of Lee. Nor do you get points for a call on Robinson. I get points for what the players actually do in games. Therefor, I've rostered Hurns in as many leagues as I possibly can and after week 1, a small sample for sure, reaped a strong reward. While many people, likely you considering your stance in here, have been ignoring the signs that Hurns might just be a player, I was rostering him just in case. He was like a cheap insurance policy months and weeks ago. Now, not so much. This whole thread wreaks of people justifying their reasons for not buying Hurns weeks ago when the price was almost 0. It's laughable to me because even if Hurns never catches a single pass again what he did in week 1 has already out produce the cost I spent to pick him up.
The comparison to Boldin wasn't so much about their actual game skill being linear. It was about the opportunity to produce and circumstances. Even still Hurns has at least some similarities to Boldin. Lack of ideal physical ability, strong hands and crafty players in zone space. Does he offer a perfect match to Boldin? No, of course not. Saying there are no similarities at all is an extreme stance that attempts to discredit the people making it and it's unnecessary IMO.
I'm not really sure why you are trumpeting around that your take on this or Lee is correct. Had anyone listened to your recommendation on the Jax WR situation they'd have missed out on both the WR1 and WR2 on the team right now. Reverse engineer that however you want it doesn't change the actual results to date.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Making a comparison to Anquan Boldin after one game is the extreme. Comparing Hurns to the names I've mentioned is much closer to any meaningful analysis.
If anyone had listened to me, they'd miss out on the WR1 and WR2 through the first 2 games. Unfortunately, the NFL season is 16 games. And my assessment of the Jaguars WR situation has always been rooted from a Dynasty perspective.
Certain turn of events have happened for Hurns and Lee to be the top 2 WRs right now. How incredibly shortsighted to believe this will stay the same all season and for their Jaguars career all based on 1 game and possibly another this week.
Who is being obtuse here?
jurb26
Footballguy
How is my shotgun approach to rostering several WR in Jax because I acknowledge that I'm not sure who will be the break out more obtuse than your ignoring of Hurns and Lee for months? Again, the main comp to Boldin is opportunity. Making a skill set call concrete is extreme. Seeing that there are similarities in opportunity is just paying attention.
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Xue
Footballguy
I haven't stated an opinion on your strategy nor do I care what strategy you use. Your continued support of the Boldin comparison is what's obtuse. You continue to ignore the fact or fail to mention fact that Robinson and Shorts have been out for weeks off and on with hamstring issues. Anyone paying attention saw the opportunity. What is the point of making a Boldin comparison? Plenty of offer WRs have had opportunities.
How would you know I've been ignoring Hurns and Lee for months? Are you in any leagues with me? Nope. Have you hacked into my computer?
Xue
Footballguy
6'1-1/4" 198 at the Combine
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=108798&draftyear=2014&genpos=wr
Hey now...
Coach Gus Bradley said that Allen Hurns will be the Jaguars' No. 2 receiver even when Cecil Shorts (hamstring) returns.
It's the first we've heard of Hurns being ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart. Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco says it's because Hurns has a better grasp of the offense after playing for OC Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami. If true, it would make the UDFA a far more intriguing hold than previously thought. For now, however, it doesn't really matter as Shorts does not appear close to getting over his latest injury. Hurns is going to start opposite Lee against the bad Redskins secondary on Sunday and has some WR4 appeal.
jurb26
Footballguy
You are blurring the line here. I never said I agree with the comp to Boldin as a whole. I said that ignoring any similarities, as you did, is being obtuse. There is a major difference. I don't think Boldin, from a skill set, is a perfect comp to Hurns. That doesn't mean I can't see some things about their game and opportunity that are similar. I haven't ignored the injuries to Shorts and Robinson. As a matter of fact it was one of the main reasons any of us, early to Hurns crowd, starting picking him up and talking about him. Your just making things up. This is and has clearly been about opportunity from my end. I don't know how much more I can type that word... Hurns happens to be capitalizing on that opportunity.
What you do in your leagues is your business. I could care less. Maybe you are fishing in these threads and down playing the likes of Hurns and Lee so you can throw off league-mate scent who are also here. Not the first time it's been done around here. I do know what you've been saying about them in these threads though. It paints a picture of you not wanting them or owning them.
identikit
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
You don't care what I do, yet you go as far as to speculate that I may be fishing? You are definitely reading into my posts way too much. I have already clearly stated what I think of Hurns and his situation and future outlook. I have even made, what I think are, some very optimistic comps for Hurns. I guess because none of then are Boldin, people seem to think its an insult. Because he's so much like Boldin.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I know. I was being sarcastic.
weird. Espn, Rotoworld, NFL.com, University of Miami, and thr Jags website ALL list him at 6'3"
did a quick google search of allen hurns draft and some of the same sources list him at 6'1" on the draft profile section of the site. Wikipedia has him at 6'3". WHATS GOING ON HERE?!
cstu
Footballguy
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