SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Since the news of quasi-hernia came out he really has sort of gotten worn down. It's too bad, one of my favorite players to watch this year.
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Who is Allen Hurns? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Michael DiRocco @ESPNdirocco 2h2 hours ago
Jaguars rule out WR Allen Hurns (concussion), LB Dan Skuta (groin), RB Toby Gerhart (groin) for Sunday vs Titans.
Jaguars rule out WR Allen Hurns (concussion), LB Dan Skuta (groin), RB Toby Gerhart (groin) for Sunday vs Titans.
If they lose, I hope he sits out the year. No need to turn him into Welker/Collie and rush him back, and then get that groin surgery done. If they win, I still hope so but doubt it with playoffs possible.
Weights and tough guys? Not sure why but football players don't deal with groin injuries well. This story sure reads like someone "pushing it" despite needing to get hernia taken care of.
boilerdave
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Have a gut feeling that Hurns will lose some of his high production numbers to JThomas the rest of the way.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
This is how I see it. Bortles and JT are starting to get on the same page.
Nemesis
Footballguy
Also, Rashad Greene just returned too as a slot WR and despite being a rookie, Bortles showed that he would throw his way and rely on him more than I thought. That will temper any results when Hurns comes back.
Neither he nor Lee have gotten much love as anything more than a dumpoff guy or a snap N throw quickie.
4-5 targets total the last two weeks. Early in the year, this was Greene's usage too.
This week the Titans have an excellent CB in Cox, but he rarely covers the 1. Doesn't make much sense but Lebeau has worked magic making them a top pass D, then 3, now 6th.
The Jags should be able to throw to Robinson and run pretty well. Thomas will probably have his moments too.
Cox went first 4-5 weeks shutting down each team's starting WR with zero catches. Hurns only had 3 for 19 last time.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I'm a Hurns fan, one of my favorite players, but sadly I'm starting to doubt his health and his role. He does have some great matchups especially the Saints though. Are Hurns owner holding tight while he fights through the groin, the concussion, Julius, Lee and ARob beasting?
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Marqise Lee has yet to go over 39 yards in a game (that is including his rushes). On Sunday when the Jags scored 39 points he had 21 total yards.
As long as Hurns is healthy you play him.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
He's played and played well through all the injuries but the concussion (understandable). I'm playing him.
az_prof
Footballguy
I love Hurns--he has great hands, runs great routes, and plays, yet he gets little respect. In my PPR league last year he was WR19, right between Emmanuel Sanders, WR18 and Sammy Watkins, WR20. Yet the FBG staff consensus ranks him at WR34 in PPR redraft. All he has ever done is out perform expectations. Yes, he is a WR2 to Allen Robinson, but in their two years in the league Hurns has proven that he can get his with Robinson on the field or not. Even if you see him as the WR2, it seems like his floor should be WR24.
In Dynasty, the 24 year old Hurns is regarded even less well--ranked WR45 by footballguys. I don't get it.
In Dynasty, the 24 year old Hurns is regarded even less well--ranked WR45 by footballguys. I don't get it.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
- Thomas will have more time with Bortles and will be a bigger part of the passing pie.
- Most think JAX will pass less with Yeldon/Ivory than with just Yeldon, especially in the red-zone so that passing pie may be smaller.
- JAX added three top-5 young difference makers to the defense, and the best FA defender so those soft second half stats may be a thing of the past and that passing pie may be even smaller.
I don't hear many people hating on Hurns, they just see his situation changing from last year. It's not like Bortles is being "respected" after the numbers he put up last year either. I do think it's odd the love Robinson is getting though. I don't even have him pegged as a first rounder in my drafts.
I'm somewhat on the fence with this guy. I feel like he's definitely value at WR34, but I'm still trying to figure out just how much value.
Last year he had a bit of a TD aberration, catching 10 on just 64 receptions so that skews his number a bit IMO. Conversely, the guy had a sports hernia for most of the season, IIRC, so that had to hurt his performance to some unknown degree. He played 865 snaps last year (in 15 games) to Robinson's 983. If he's healthy, I'd expect him to play a few more snaps this year which could lead to an uptick in targets.
But like BoltBacker said, the signing of Ivory and their draft were indications that they plan to shift towards the run this year. Given that they were only 5 RB rushes ahead of last in the league in 2015, it is actually hard to imagine they wouldn't shift towards running the ball more. I'm also with BB in that these things which give us pause about Hurns also give me pause about Robinson. I expect the shift to running to hurt him more than Hurns. I'll actually be surprised if either of these guys hit 10 TDs next year, but that still leaves room for Hurns to be a value pick. Robinson appears to have his ADP/ranking really close to his ceiling.
Fun data dominator fact: Blake Bortles had the most fantasy points of any QB while playing down by 10 points or more. Should they find themselves winning or in close games, it could be detrimental for everyone's stats (Robinson, Hurns, Thomas).
Given his youth and production in his first two years, I agree that WR45 is criminally low for a dynasty ranking. This guy should have about 7-8 prime seasons left.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I'm not so sure they want to "focus" on the run, so much as have it as an actual threat.
There werent many situations where people needed to fear the jax rushing attack last year. It made controlling the clock harder, and probably resulted in a few turnovers while throwing.
Ivory adds an element to the offense they need on early downs, as well as opens up some play action throws.
There werent many situations where people needed to fear the jax rushing attack last year. It made controlling the clock harder, and probably resulted in a few turnovers while throwing.
Ivory adds an element to the offense they need on early downs, as well as opens up some play action throws.
You are the only person who used the word "focus" so I'm not sure why it is in quotes. I think the general point being made is that the defense should be improved and they probably won't rank 31st in RB rushing attempts again. The ratio of 35 passing TDs and 3 RB rushing TDs is also unlikely to repeat itself.Pwingles said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
i didnt feel like typing out "shift towards the run" at the time i guess, idk
either way, you are likely right, I highly doubt theyre that low on the rushing side of things this year, hopefully because theyre able to use it effectively, and also hopefully because theyre winning some games
and yeah, by default the passing stats should regress some
I just wasn't sure who you were addressing since nobody had said that. In hindsight I suppose I should've just called it a more balanced attack. Didn't mean to insinuate they want to become a run centered offense.
I believe a loss of passing attempts will hurt Robinson more than Hurns in terms of value since Robinson pretty much can't justify his ADP with any hit to his targets whereas Hurns is priced as if he's going to see quite a drop in production.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Robinson seems to be the one that benefited most from the weight in passing, with 153 targets.
Hurns' 104 targets, which were only 26th among NFL WRs last year, are very sustainable and even a small shift to center between the two would mitigate the team passing stats dropping off some. It's only 7 more targets than he had his rookie season.
The rub would be if Hurns can maintain his high efficiency with his targets. Most seem to think he can't which reminds me a bit of Greg Jennings. For several years people just assumed his per target efficiency would regress, until everyone finally accepted that it wouldn't. One would also assume that a more balanced attack from Jacksonville would make the quality of those targets higher.
Regardless, it seems very interesting that everyone assumes Hurns' good efficiency is due to an aberration rather than to him just being a good WR. I wonder how differently that would be viewed if his draft pedigree were higher. Were he formerly a first round NFL pick that had hype coming into the league I would think his value would be sky high right now coming off a 64-1031-10 sophomore season with good efficiency numbers on an up and coming offense.
Hurns' 104 targets, which were only 26th among NFL WRs last year, are very sustainable and even a small shift to center between the two would mitigate the team passing stats dropping off some. It's only 7 more targets than he had his rookie season.
The rub would be if Hurns can maintain his high efficiency with his targets. Most seem to think he can't which reminds me a bit of Greg Jennings. For several years people just assumed his per target efficiency would regress, until everyone finally accepted that it wouldn't. One would also assume that a more balanced attack from Jacksonville would make the quality of those targets higher.
Regardless, it seems very interesting that everyone assumes Hurns' good efficiency is due to an aberration rather than to him just being a good WR. I wonder how differently that would be viewed if his draft pedigree were higher. Were he formerly a first round NFL pick that had hype coming into the league I would think his value would be sky high right now coming off a 64-1031-10 sophomore season with good efficiency numbers on an up and coming offense.
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I agree with all your points, but on the bolded statement, while it is a good general assumption, in this particular case I can't fathom his YPR or TD/rec actually increasing. And that's not because of where he was drafted. They are both just very, very high numbers. He also caught a healthy 61% of his passes. Given his YPR, that's even better than first glance. Robinson only caught 53%.
I don't consider all of his stats to be an aberration, but I did use it to describe his TDs last year. And I would use the same words to describe Robinson's TD output. Hurns caught one TD every 6.4 rec and Robinson caught one every 5.7 rec. I believe the only WR last year with a better ratio was Baldwin (14 on 78) and that was extremely fluky (even though I consider Baldwin a very good player).
az_prof
Footballguy
Hurns has been a TD machine both years. While TDs are in fact highly variable, some players have a better knack for finding endzone or finding opening in EZ than others, and Hurns definitely has that skill. He also has great hands. Because he was an undrafted FA it has taken fantasy players a while to look at him without bias.
I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying that both he and Robinson are due for a regression from 2015 to 2016.
Here are some big names from last year and their rec/TD:
A. Brown - 13.6
Julio - 17
Marshall - 7.8
Beckham - 7.4
Hopkins - 10.1
Baldwin - 5.6
Green - 8.6
Fitzgerald - 12.1
Calvin - 9.8
Robinson - 5.7
Hurns - 6.4
Sorry, but I'm projecting the names in red to regress.
squistion
Footballguy
For a point of reference as to possible trade value and price check on Hurns, I offered in a 12 team 30 roster PPR league this:
Allen Hurns
for
Matt Forte
And was turned down flat with no counter.
Other owner also has RBs David Johnson, Ryan Mathews, plus Charles Sims and Bilal Powell. His WRs are Marshall, Maclin, Kevin White and nothing else to speak of. Figured that Forte would be expendable given his lack of depth and Hurns was ballpark fair price.
Just one owner in one league, but still surprised he didn't pull the trigger on this.
Allen Hurns
for
Matt Forte
And was turned down flat with no counter.
Other owner also has RBs David Johnson, Ryan Mathews, plus Charles Sims and Bilal Powell. His WRs are Marshall, Maclin, Kevin White and nothing else to speak of. Figured that Forte would be expendable given his lack of depth and Hurns was ballpark fair price.
Just one owner in one league, but still surprised he didn't pull the trigger on this.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Yes it is dynasty. And I agree. I wouldn't have even considered offering this in the other leagues that I own Hurns, but I am desperate for a starting RB in this league, even for one on the wrong side of 30. Still a bit stunned that it was so quickly turned down.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
... and if Marshall has some combo of Geno/Hack/Petty I might add him to the regression list.
That is craziness. He should've snapped that up immediately. I don't mean to derail the thread, but how hard up for RBs are you?! Like FreeBagel, I would also take Hurns over 5 Fortes. I don't expect him to have much of a role by mid-season. I think it'll be the Khiry-Powell show by then. Forte is running on fumes.squistion said:
Yeah, if I'd really thought about it, I'd have added Marshall to that list even if Fitzpatrick was coming back for sure. He's getting old and that was a career year for him.BoltBacker said:
squistion
Footballguy
We have to start 2 RBs and all I got is C. J. Anderson and Latavius Murray and after that it is Abudullah, DMC, Sproles, and Jennings.
To get the thread back on track some recent Hurns trades on Twitter:
Brian Malone
I've seen three Allen Hurns
Hurns + 1.16
for
Brandon Marshall
Hurns + 1.16
for
1.10 + 1.11
Hurns
for
Sammie Coates + Markus Wheaton
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Man, you're not doing so bad at RB unless that is a 10 team league. I wouldn't be trying to acquire Forte for Hurns if that was my team.
Those trades are interesting. I'm beginning to think I'm not actually on the fence about this guy since my gut feeling was that the team acquiring Hurns won in all those trades. I mean, I like Coates a lot (and Wheaton is nice insurance) but as long as Brown is around, Coates' upside is not any higher than Hurns and Hurns' floor is much higher.
squistion
Footballguy
It is a 12 team league, but right now I am short a starter for bye weeks and injury. And Anderson and Murray may not be the long term answer at RB for their teams (or even all of 2016). Hurns is expendable in the sense that I got Nuk, Jeffery, Landry, Tate, plus rookies Doctson, Shepard, and Boyd.
The trades seem to reflect what I have been seeing on internet polls regarding trades for Hurns, which is not that much enthusiasm in acquiring him, or at least not as much as would be expected given last year's fantasy numbers. Maybe it is being in Jax. Perhaps it is the high number of TDs per targets/catches that usually is not repeated in back-to-back years. And I have heard some "experts" here knock him because he was an UDFA (which at this point should be irrelevant but some in the "draft pedigree" crowd are still pointing to it).
The guy seems to get no respect among fantasy owners, perhaps they are right and we are wrong.
Abdullah or Jennings should be a suitable bye week filler. I really think Forte will be getting phased out by the time bye weeks hit full stride. Who is Nuk? I haven't heard that nickname. Personally, I'd be trying to trade Landry and keep Hurns. He's got a higher perceived value and lower ceiling, IMO.It is a 12 team league, but right now I am short a starter for bye weeks and injury. And Anderson and Murray may not be the long term answer at RB for their teams (or even all of 2016). Hurns is expendable in the sense that I got Nuk, Jeffery, Landry, Tate, plus rookies Doctson, Shepard, and Boyd.
The trades seem to reflect what I have been seeing on internet polls regarding trades for Hurns, which is not that much enthusiasm in acquiring him, or at least not as much as would be expected given last year's fantasy numbers. Maybe it is being in Jax. Perhaps it is the high number of TDs per targets/catches that usually is not repeated in back-to-back years. And I have heard some "experts" here knock him because he was an UDFA (which at this point should be irrelevant but some in the "draft pedigree" crowd are still pointing to it).
The guy seems to get no respect among fantasy owners, perhaps they are right and we are wrong.
What's weird is that the fantasy community typically tries to chase last year's TDs. Maybe they only feel comfortable doing that with one player per team. I loved Robinson last year (well only enough to reach 1 round, which wasn't always enough), but I think he's got <10% chance of matching his ADP this year. I'd place Hurns at around 90% (assuming 16g).
There's something to be said for draft pedigree. It has a relatively solid correlation coefficient with NFL success, but I agree that in the case of Hurns, two years of solid production have rendered it invalid at this point. Tangentially related, I recently saw an article saying that WR is the position with the least correlation between combine stats and NFL production. I think RB was the highest. The more important factors for WRs were college production and breakout age.
DeAndre Hopkins is Nuk. Don't know where the nickname came from, but I've seen it on here.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree. And Hurns for 1.10 and 1.11 makes little sense since you are HOPING one of those two picks performs as well as Hurns does and the odds are that they won't. I guess if you have an old team that can't compete and Hurns is one of your few younger pieces, maybe that deal makes sense to try and gamble and get more young talent.
The trade for Marshall puzzles me too because I own both and I would not be surprised if Hurns outperforms Marshall this year. I love Marshall, but the guy is getting old and has crap for QB, so...would it surprise anyone if he fell off the roof this year? These trades confirm that people just don't have a good sense of the real value Hurns offers.
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
I dealt Rawls to get him at my trade deadline last season. Full PPR start 3wr, 2rb. No regrets, as I needed a wr3 with upside and if not for the injury he was crushing expectations. Even w td regression he's a high upside wr2 at least.
squistion
Footballguy
Here is the origin and it is pronounced "Nuke"stbugs said:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25349991/texans-wr-deandre-hopkins-got-his-nickname-from-a-pacifier
Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins got his nickname from a pacifier
Some of you may know Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins as the NFL's leader in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and first downs. Others know him simply as "Nuk."
His Twitter handle, for example, is @nukdabomb. (We can talk about Hopkins' usage of "dabomb" later.) So, why "Nuk?" Hopkins says the nickname came from his mom, who said Nuk was the only brand of pacifier he would use.
Good to know.
And for you parents out there not using Nuk pacifiers for your children ... why? There is clearly a correlation between being the most productive wide receiver in football and using Nuk pacifiers. (Note: I didn't even know Nuk was a pacifier brand until I saw this video of Hopkins, so that may not actually be true.)
ProFootballTalk
✔@ProFootballTalk
Jags and WR Allen Hurns agree to four-year extension, per source. Worth more than $10 million per year.
4:20 PM - 2 Jun 2016
✔@ProFootballTalk
Jags and WR Allen Hurns agree to four-year extension, per source. Worth more than $10 million per year.
4:20 PM - 2 Jun 2016
Boone22
Footballguy
I like him better than Jones, but man that is huge money for your 2nd WR. They'll extend Robinson and Bortles and while they appear to have some cap space now, that's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of close to $50 for the 3 of them or 1/3 of the cap. They've got $39M in space right now with this $10M, so that should carry over, but that already puts their 2017 cap space at $2M according to Sportrac without the carry over.FF Ninja said:
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JaxBill
Footballguy
Jaguars are about the last team you need to worry about the cap.
Unless there are other extensions (which is a possibility), Jags will have roughly 30 Mil to carry over (which they will).
All of the Jaguars contracts are pay as you go, so if they really got into a pinch, they could convert salary to bonus. i.e. Malik Jackson will make 13.5 Mil base salary in 2017.
Also, because of the pay as you go approach, there are several long in the tooth veterans who count $4Mil+ who could be cut with limited dead money like....
Poz would free up 5 Mil, Roy Miller 4.1 Mil, Marcedes 3.25
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