Tau837
Footballguy
I don’t think so. Suppose he missed the entire season, how many fewer wins for the Rams. Same question for Goff. Bigger drop off for Goff than Donald IMO.
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Who is the 2018 NFL MVP? (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
- Start date
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
George Kittle
bud29
Footballguy
Huge Chiefs homer here. While I sort of understand this POV - Hill is a spectacular, unique player - I say no way. Mahomes has shifted that offense into a gear that it never possessed with any other QB under center. We’ve seen the KC offense with Hill and just a “decent” QB, and it was...decent. Nowhere near the tour de force that it is with Mahomes.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yesterday was a MVP caliber performance for Rivers. Entered game without top 2 RBs (Gordon, Ekeler) and top TE (Henry), then lost WR1 Allen in the 2nd quarter. While he did throw 2 interceptions, he also threw for 313 yards and 2 TDs, despite being under heavy pressure throughout the game, and he led 2 TD drives in the last 8:15 to win the game. In a road game in a hostile environment against the team with the best record in the AFC.
If the Chargers win out and KC loses a game, they will have won 12 of 13 games, including road wins at SEA, TEN (London), PIT, KC, and DEN, plus BAL at home, and they will earn the #1 seed in the AFC.
It will still be quite a challenge for them to beat BAL next week and win at DEN in week 17, and KC finishes with OAK, so they would probably need to lose at SEA next week. Plus, Brees may be the frontrunner, anyway.
But as a Chargers and Rivers fan, it is nice for him to be in the race.
Mack has had a good season but Watt leads Mack in sacks, hurries, tackles, etc. Mack has 5 Passes Defended and 1 more forced fumble. But both of them are being blown away by Aaron Donald who's pretty much the defacto DPOY at this point. Chris Jones with KC is the other guy in the conversation at the moment. Miles Garret has an argument but is behind both of those guys.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
As a Chargers' fan, I couldn't give it to Rivers, not after his complete collapse at the end of the Broncos game that turned a near-certain victory into a loss. I understand that all players, even the very best, make mistakes. But guys that we consider MVPs can't single-handedly turn wins into losses by making mental errors at crunch time against inferior opponents.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
wait , no S. Barkley? without him the Gmen would be 0-16.
the MVP is Rivers. He's been incredible.
I like Brees too but Rivers does more with less
the MVP is Rivers. He's been incredible.
I like Brees too but Rivers does more with less
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I don't think he was justifying Brees.over Mahomes for that reason. I think he was pointing out how Brees has it in the bag just for the nostalgia of it. which is dumb but how the NFL works.
Tau837
Footballguy
Rivers wasn't solely responsible for that loss. The team had 14 penalties, allowed a fake punt conversion for the second week in a row, and gave up 2 TDs and a FG in the last 17 minutes of the game. Rivers made 3 bad plays in that game, but there was plenty of blame to go around.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
there have been several weeks where Mahomes was clearly the AFC player of the week and they didn't give it to him......because you can't just keep giving it to him I guess....its all a joke sometimes
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Has he? Sure, Gordon has missed the last few games, but Brees doesn't have the WR depth Rivers does, Travis Benjamin would be a near every down player in New Orleans, basically what Ginn was before he got hurt, and he's the Chargers WR4.
Rivers is making an MVP push, but I can't see him higher than 3rd. Its Brees>Mahomes>Rivers for me, only other guy who can really make a late push is Luck, but the Colts need to likely blow up these final 3 games, and even then he's a long shot.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I agree that there were other things that contributed to them being in a position to lose, but Rivers was in a situation where almost any decision other than to take a sack and then throw a quick pass somewhere between the feet of a running back and those of a lineman (both with their backs turned) was going to seal the victory. To go from 2nd and 3 and just waiting to count down the clock to punting on 4th and long just isn't the stuff of an MVP in my opinion.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Yes. And if any one of many other mistakes were not made by the Chargers in that game... they win... period.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
All of the other things happened earlier and LAC was still in position/had time to make up for it and win the game....which they were in position to do....until at the very end Rivers makes a rookie/QB 101 mistake....sorry but even after all the things you mentioned, if Rivers simply falls down they win....sure if they don’t play like crap and do all the things you mentioned, maybe they are up by 17 or something and its not “an issue”....but that play that late in the game turned a W into an L....Yes. And if any one of many other mistakes were not made by the Chargers in that game... they win... period.
Shawnky
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
As a Saints fan, I don't care less if Brees won the MVP. Just look at the last 11 years:
2017: Tom Brady- Lost Super Bowl
2016: Matt Ryan- Lost Super Bowl
2015: Cam Newton- Lost Super Bowl
2014: Aaron Rodgers- No Super Bowl appearance
2013: Peyton Manning- Lost Super Bowl
2012: Adrian Peterson- No Super Bowl appearance
2011: Aaron Rodgers- No Super Bowl appearance
2010: Tom Brady- No Super Bowl appearance
2009: Peyton Manning- Lost Super Bowl
2008: Peyton Manning- No Super Bowl appearance
2007: Tom Brady- Lost Super Bowl
2017: Tom Brady- Lost Super Bowl
2016: Matt Ryan- Lost Super Bowl
2015: Cam Newton- Lost Super Bowl
2014: Aaron Rodgers- No Super Bowl appearance
2013: Peyton Manning- Lost Super Bowl
2012: Adrian Peterson- No Super Bowl appearance
2011: Aaron Rodgers- No Super Bowl appearance
2010: Tom Brady- No Super Bowl appearance
2009: Peyton Manning- Lost Super Bowl
2008: Peyton Manning- No Super Bowl appearance
2007: Tom Brady- Lost Super Bowl
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Tau837
Footballguy
You are ignoring the fact that the Chargers defense allowed Keenum to go 5/5 for 84 yards in 1:47 with no timeouts on the ensuing Broncos drive that led to the game winning field goal, including completions of 38 and 30 yards. Even after the Rivers play being discussed here, the Chargers defense should have secured the win but didn't. The outcome was determined much more by the defense choking than Rivers.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I don't think he's ignoring that, it's just that it's irrelevant. What the defense does next is not an issue if Rivers doesn't play like a moron on that last possession. The defense never would have seen the field. I will concede though that if the defense didn't perform so badly, especially in the 4th quarter, and the Chargers won that game, I'd be a lot less critical of Rivers' performance and would be more supportive of his MVP bid.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
If you are not willing to admit/understand that the extra time that would have been run off would have sealed the deal then there is not much more to say...even Rivers admits/understands as much....
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Rivers is playing from behind and it is hard to catch up once most see it as a 2-horse race (Brees and Mahomes), but if the Chargers end up winning the division and getting the 1 seed, he will deserve major consideration. Plus, when you look at his game log this year, he has been amazingly consistent, and has yet to to be held under 20 points (while Brees was held to 10 points once) or commit 5 turnovers in a game (like Mahomes did). I don't think he will win it, but he's in the conversation in a big way, not just as an afterthought.
Tau837
Footballguy
Denver got the ball with 1:51 remaining. Had Rivers not thrown an incompletion on the Chargers' last third down, they would have had around 1:11 remaining. As it is, they drove 76 yards to the Chargers' 16 yard line, and Keenum completed 5/5 passes for 84 yards (he completed a 6th pass for 10 yards but OPI was called). But they didn't need to get that far; they could have kicked a longer FG.
Yes, had Rivers not thrown an incompletion on the Chargers' last third down, it would have significantly increased the Chargers' chance of winning. But it would not have sealed anything.
I'm going to stop responding on this tangent at this point, since it is hijacking the thread.
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Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
You mean the best veteran QB of the Year? Cause that's almost all the MVP has been since 2000.
Brees right now. 120 passer rating. 31-4 TD-INT ratio. He fits who the award is for. QB. Older. Winning. Mahommes is on his heels but has to outperform him quite a bit to snatch it away.
Brees right now. 120 passer rating. 31-4 TD-INT ratio. He fits who the award is for. QB. Older. Winning. Mahommes is on his heels but has to outperform him quite a bit to snatch it away.
ZWK
Footballguy
And with the full season in the books, it's:
QBs
ANY/A: Mahomes, Brees, Fitzpatrick
DVOA: Mahomes, Brees, Rivers
DYAR: Mahomes, Brees, Ryan
EPA: Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Luck
QBR: Mahomes, Brees, Trubisky
PFF grade: Brees, Mahomes, Luck
Offenses
OSRS: Chiefs, Rams, Saints
Offensive DVOA: Chiefs, Rams, Chargers
Pts per drive: Saints, Chiefs, Rams
Yds per drive: Chiefs, Saints, Rams
Offensive EPA: Chiefs, Saints, Rams
In other words, Mahomes should be MVP.
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fightingillini
Footballguy
I would be surprised if Mahomes is not the MVP.
Absolutely deserves it IMO.
Absolutely deserves it IMO.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Yep, Mahomes will be the runaway winner now.
Brees, Rivers and Luck would be my picks for 2nd through 4th place.
Brees, Rivers and Luck would be my picks for 2nd through 4th place.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Why do I still have a feeling that “the HOF vet who is almost done and hasn’t won it yet” vs “the kid who has 15 plus more chances to win it” is still in play here big time even after 5000/50....the fact that Mahomes has a bunch more time to win some in the future is irrelevant....if Brees wins he should decline it....it would say more about him....I wouldn’t want to win a sympathy award no matter how good I had been for a long time...
at least the Rivers noise disappeared very quickly....
at least the Rivers noise disappeared very quickly....
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Agreed. Though some voters may give a lifetime achievement vote to Brees, which isn't only wrong but unethical.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep.
You can almost see the "Chiefs were a playoff team with Alex Smith, so Mahomes wasn't that important" excuses being made to justify voting for Brees.
But this should be unanimous.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I think it is Mahomes easy....
I think you guys are being a little overzealous here. Its only unanimous as to who was a better fantasy QB. Brees is an absolutely legit MVP candidate. In his favor, he had a better record than Mahomes, a better TD-INT ratio, and had far less weaponry.
Brees also had a better completion percentage and passer rating.
Brees also had 6 4th quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives, leading the league in both categories. I'd also make the case that Alex Smith's 2017 matters a bit, the Saints would never have been a playoff team without Brees. The more I think about it, the more 50-50 it seems to me, with a bit of a lean toward Brees.
What would be unfair, is if people feel Mahomes was better, but pick Brees either because they feel the Saints got screwed out of the Super Bowl, or as a bit of a lifetime achievement award.
Brees also had a better completion percentage and passer rating.
Brees also had 6 4th quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives, leading the league in both categories. I'd also make the case that Alex Smith's 2017 matters a bit, the Saints would never have been a playoff team without Brees. The more I think about it, the more 50-50 it seems to me, with a bit of a lean toward Brees.
What would be unfair, is if people feel Mahomes was better, but pick Brees either because they feel the Saints got screwed out of the Super Bowl, or as a bit of a lifetime achievement award.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
All voting was completed before the playoffs started, so the blown call can’t possibly enter into it the mix.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
My comment was back on New Year’s Eve....but I think Mahomes should be a slam dunk...as far as comebacks and drives.....that’s not really fair....Mahomes usually had his team in position where they didn’t need to comeback....and let’s not act like the saints don’t have one of the most talented rosters in the league....Bridgewater probably could have gotten them to the playoffs..
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Side by side comparison, the vote should not be close.
Depends on what stats you think hold value. Personally, passing yards and TD's aren't stats I think matter outside of fantasy football. Those are volume and play calling based. The stats that matter to me, are completion percentage, passer rating, TD/INT ratio, and yards per attempt. Mahomes wins only 1 of those(YPA) I'm aware that the other 3 are all factored into passer rating, which is probably the most important of the group.
To put it in perspective, I believe 2018 was the best year of Brees career. Better than his 5,000+ yards seasons.
I believe its a close race, and one where I pick Brees.
With how bad the NFC South was, that is probably true, though I highly doubt they'd have gotten a bye week, or made it out of round 1. I think the same could be said for KC, only they'd have probably been on the road, as the Chargers would have won the division.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Aha, so having a better running game, scoring fewer points and being in close games is valued over being the focal point of the team that leads the league in scoring and wins in blowouts. Efficiency & advanced metrics make for good arguments on message boards. Ypu’re Making a good case it’s debatable & not a unanimous slam dunk.
I’m guessing the 50 sportswriters who have votes won’t see it the way you do. My impression is they’re more of the Justice Potter school of breaking stuff down (“I know it when I see it”.) Also, Brees had 5 average to lousy games over his last 7. Nothing comparable in Mahommes game logs. At Week 10 I thought this was really close, and I favored Brees. But not with the way he played over the last 40% of the schedule.
When does this get announced, tomorrow night?
The Saints didn't have a better running game than the Chiefs. Not really sure how one could argue they did. The Chiefs averaged a half yard more per carry as a team, and were among the top-4 in the NFL in rushing success rate, the Saints were middle of the pack in yards per carry, but also high in success rate, behind KC though. The Saints attempted more carries, that's it.
Brees stats were hurt a bit by the Saints being so run heavy in the redzone(most rushing TD's in the NFL, and by a decent margin), and quite a bit, by Sean Payton's weird/dumb obsession with Taysom Hill. If Brees had 42 TD's instead of 32, would he be a better candidate?
I don't think Brees was that bad down the stretch. Week 13(Dallas) and week 15(Carolina) were certainly poor games, and week 14(TB) was just average. I thought Mahomes was really bad week 11 against the Rams, I know he had 478 yards and 6 TD's, but he also had 5 TO's and 2 resulted in defensive TD's. I will agree though, that Brees had more mediocre weeks than Mahomes did. I'd argue Brees had more exceptional weeks as well. While I'm not sure how much it should matter, its interesting to me, that Mahomes worst game was against the same team as Brees best game.
I fully agree Mahomes will win the award, and he certainly isn't undeserving, I just think Brees was slightly better. I didn't think Ryan should have won in 2016 either, but expected him to.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Thanks for the breakdown on the respective run games.
WHEN does this get announced?
WHEN does this get announced?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
OK, so a week from Saturday.
I was pulling for Brees and kind of concluded halfway through the season it was his to lose. They didn’t collapse so I figured he had it (I didn’t own any Saints this year so rarely watched rewinds of their games.) When I compared their seasons on WC weekend I was like yeah no way they don’t give that to Mahomes.
Would have been a great capstone for Brees but I don’t think he did enough.
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