Who is the most overrated RB not named... (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

I read the entire thread,

and it appears there are no good running backs available in the second round.

So lets abandon the second round in 2006.....

That's why the top WRs are going there this year.There'a big U shape on the RB value chart that dips under between 2-3, and surges back up around 5.

IMO:

1) Chester Taylor

2) Julius Jones

3) Tatum Bell

4) Joseph Addai

5) DeShaun Foster

 

[Ducegonads]

JJ

KJ

TJ

 

[Marc Levin]

Most overrated is Ahman Green, seen him going anywhere from the 3rd to 6th round, how is a guy who is basically done for good and not worth anything going as anything but a deep flyer in a 16 + team league?

a deep flyer? Last I heard he was still the starting RB for GB unless I missed some recent news and his injury isn't progressing at all.

http://www.packersnews.com/archives/news/pack_26546089.shtml

Expected to be 100 percent by the season opener:

Green is coming back from a torn quadriceps tendon and probably won’t be ready for full-time practice until the middle of training camp. But all signs suggest he’ll be ready for the regular-season opener.

“Absolutely,” coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday after the final Packers’ 14 organized team activities practices this offseason.

 

[joffer]

Most overrated is Ahman Green, seen him going anywhere from the 3rd to 6th round, how is a guy who is basically done for good and not worth anything going as anything but a deep flyer in a 16 + team league?

a deep flyer? Last I heard he was still the starting RB for GB unless I missed some recent news and his injury isn't progressing at all.

http://www.packersnews.com/archives/news/pack_26546089.shtml

Expected to be 100 percent by the season opener:

Green is coming back from a torn quadriceps tendon and probably won’t be ready for full-time practice until the middle of training camp. But all signs suggest he’ll be ready for the regular-season opener.

“Absolutely,” coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday after the final Packers’ 14 organized team activities practices this offseason.

some interesting info about his injury in this thread

 

[Chaka]

My pick would have to be Jackson. He struggled in the feature role last year, he plays for a "pass 1st" team that could be playing alot of catch-up this year. I can see the Rams abandonning the run the way they have so often in past years.

You are aware they have an entirely different HC and OC this year, yes?

But Linehan has a history of abandoning the run when he was the OC in Minnesota. It was awful to be a Minn RB owner when he was the OC.

 

[Couch Potato]

My pick would have to be Jackson. He struggled in the feature role last year, he plays for a "pass 1st" team that could be playing alot of catch-up this year. I can see the Rams abandonning the run the way they have so often in past years.

You are aware they have an entirely different HC and OC this year, yes?

But Linehan has a history of abandoning the run when he was the OC in Minnesota. It was awful to be a Minn RB owner when he was the OC.

OK. It's cool for agent 86 to believe Jackson should be lower. Some FBG staff do too. It just seemed from his comments that continuity of coaching philosophy and play calling were assumed, so I was asking the question.

 

[thehobbit]

LJ is overated.

Not that he isn't deserving of a top 3 selection, but the expectation that people expect him to have over 20 TDs, simply because he was able to do it in a short starting season and Holmes did it the prior 2 years(02 & 03). I think people forget how incredible hard it is to produce a 20 TD season, yet alone repeat it. Several Backs have been there and they sure as heck don't maintain there longer than a season or so. LJ should be considered top 3, but expectation should be tamed down a bit.

Tiki Barber is overrated.

With Jacobs another year in, and Eli having a growning presence there is no assurances that Tiki will get the rock for the TDs this year, making him the same value as Warrick Dunn and mind you at the same age. Both backs should produce yards this year, but the disparity between Dunn and Barber is sickening and is based solely on Barber stats of the prior 2 years when Eli was a developing rookie more dependant on the run game. Expectations of Barber to perform as well as his shortlived pass is unlikely and Dunn is a better value pick with the likelihood of Duckett being a non-factor this year. Barber should be consider a mid-second round pick and no sooner.

Ron Dayne is overrated.

The same exact thing happend last year about this time, he is a non-factor. Cobbs is a much better value play, and IF Dayne value shoots up to past Bell, than Bell is the steal, although I am not a fan of him either. Dayne is a bust and they might as well bring back Davis and his bumb knees as he could outproduce Dayne. Dayne should be drafted no earlier than your last RB slot and once your skill position are meet with starters.

 

[Britney Spears]

Julius Jones

He's the Mr. Glass* of NFL Running Backs, he'll never ammount to anything. He was injury prone in college, and he's missed nearly half of his NFL career thus far.

* Unbreakable reference

Wow, that was a subtle reference.Maybe you should have said he was not-unbreakable.

 

[shadow2k]

Tiki Barber is overrated.

With Jacobs another year in, and Eli having a growning presence there is no assurances that Tiki will get the rock for the TDs this year, making him the same value as Warrick Dunn and mind you at the same age. Both backs should produce yards this year, but the disparity between Dunn and Barber is sickening and is based solely on Barber stats of the prior 2 years when Eli was a developing rookie more dependant on the run game. Expectations of Barber to perform as well as his shortlived pass is unlikely and Dunn is a better value pick with the likelihood of Duckett being a non-factor this year. Barber should be consider a mid-second round pick and no sooner.

Eli may have been in his second year, but his stats (other than accuracy related stats) didn't show it. Downgrading Tiki based on the notion that Eli will drastically improve this year is odd, considering where Eli finished last year. Three/Four/Five for Attempts, TD's, and Yards, respectively. How much better do you expect him to be? He tossed for 3,700/24 last year. Is he suddenly 4,500/30 or something?And Jacobs as well. The guy had 7TD's as it was, and Tiki had 9. How many do you seriously expect Jacobs to get next year? The guy seriously sucked at times at the goalline, not able to punch it in...and we won't even get into the fumbling issues he had.

Or is it that you don't expect the NYG O to do as well, while at the same time expecting Eli to do better?

Dunn is the better value pick. But I see no reason for Tiki not to be a 1st rounder. Especially when you consider the other options.

If Tiki isn't a first rounder to you, I really have to wonder what players your ranking above him.

 

[Tom Servo]

Willie McGee

man he was ugly, good hitter though

Question, who was uglier, Willie McGee or the 1980's Boston Celtics? They used to make Danny Ainge sit at the front of the bus just to get women.

Are you implying that Kevin "Herman Munster" McHale wasn't a cutie?

I really don't know who was uglier, McHale, Bird, DJ, or Parrish.Edited to say, I don't know why I said "was uglier", I'm sure they're still pretty damn ugly.

You guys forgot about Jeffrey "Penitentiary Face" Leonard of the SF Giants. Dude had one nasty grill.

 

[nygiants56]

Clearly, Ronnie Brown is running head and shoulders above the rest in terms of being overrated going into the '06 season.

Who is next?

I think its probably Kevin Jones. How is this guy consistently in the top 20 rankings? He's never finished in the top 20. Last year, he couldn't even finish in the top 30 which even Kevan Barlow managed to do. He's being ranked ahead of the likes of Warrick Dunn (consistently in the top 20), Willie Parker, Ruben Droughns, ect.

Yes, I know he only played in 13 games last year. So did Julius Jones and JJ was able to crack the top 20.

KJ should be in the 22-25 range instead of the 14-17.

Who else is undeserving of their high ranking?

clearly?!?!?! I don't know about that.what's your reasoning for calling out Ronnie Brown as being overrated?

he avg'd 4.4 per carry while splitting time with dope head ricky williams.

he could easily double his reception totals from 2005, and doesn't appear to have a td vulture on the Dolphins roster, so I'm not sure why you're so down on him. The Fish also play one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and, they face some of the worst run defenses..

as for KJ, I agree. the Lions face one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year, they have a new offense that might not work well with the personnel in place. They also have a new coaching staff and Jon Kitna at QB, to go with a subpar offensive line. This team has 5 wins written all over it.

I'm not ready to jump on the Martz bandwagon anytime soon.

 

[Blackjacks]

My pick would have to be Jackson. He struggled in the feature role last year, he plays for a "pass 1st" team that could be playing alot of catch-up this year. I can see the Rams abandonning the run the way they have so often in past years.

You are aware they have an entirely different HC and OC this year, yes?

But Linehan has a history of abandoning the run when he was the OC in Minnesota. It was awful to be a Minn RB owner when he was the OC.

I think they led the league in rushing 2 years he was there. Their problem was always being in a RBBC. They never had a stud back that Linehan could rely on. Jackson will be just fine this year.

 

[Warhogs]

I can not argue with most of the names thrown out here. I am not sure if the responses are for guys over rated or riskiest based on ADP? That means something a bit different to me. I see a lot of risk in picking Julius Jones and Chester Taylor. Another name I will throw out there as a big risk is Jamal Lewis. He will cost an early pick and looked horrible last season. I think Baltimore has concerns too since they made sure to replace Taylor with a proven RB in Mike Anderson.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My pick would have to be Jackson.  He struggled in the feature role last year, he plays for a "pass 1st" team that could be playing alot of catch-up this year.  I can see the Rams abandonning the run the way they have so often in past years.

You are aware they have an entirely different HC and OC this year, yes?

But Linehan has a history of abandoning the run when he was the OC in Minnesota. It was awful to be a Minn RB owner when he was the OC.

I think they led the league in rushing 2 years he was there. Their problem was always being in a RBBC. They never had a stud back that Linehan could rely on. Jackson will be just fine this year.

And it wasn't a RBBC during the game but instead from game to game. He'd run one for a couple games and then switch to another guy. Mainly cause one got hurt or was ineffective. Usually one guy got the majority of the carries in that particular game though. If the defense plays OK, Jackson is set up for a very good season.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

LJ is overated.

Not that he isn't deserving of a top 3 selection, but the expectation that people expect him to have over 20 TDs, simply because he was able to do it in a short starting season and Holmes did it the prior 2 years(02 & 03). I think people forget how incredible hard it is to produce a 20 TD season, yet alone repeat it. Several Backs have been there and they sure as heck don't maintain there longer than a season or so. LJ should be considered top 3, but expectation should be tamed down a bit.

Tiki Barber is overrated.

With Jacobs another year in, and Eli having a growning presence there is no assurances that Tiki will get the rock for the TDs this year, making him the same value as Warrick Dunn and mind you at the same age. Both backs should produce yards this year, but the disparity between Dunn and Barber is sickening and is based solely on Barber stats of the prior 2 years when Eli was a developing rookie more dependant on the run game. Expectations of Barber to perform as well as his shortlived pass is unlikely and Dunn is a better value pick with the likelihood of Duckett being a non-factor this year. Barber should be consider a mid-second round pick and no sooner.

Ron Dayne is overrated.

The same exact thing happend last year about this time, he is a non-factor. Cobbs is a much better value play, and IF Dayne value shoots up to past Bell, than Bell is the steal, although I am not a fan of him either. Dayne is a bust and they might as well bring back Davis and his bumb knees as he could outproduce Dayne. Dayne should be drafted no earlier than your last RB slot and once your skill position are meet with starters.

not a

 

[Banger]

I'd clearly say Julius Jones. There have been rumblings that Parcells prefers Barber, rumors that Jones was on the block, the fact that Jones can't stay healthy and that Barber may be the goal line back. I think if Jones goes down with an injury there is a good chance he doesn't get back the job and I don't think that's the case with most other 1st/2nd draft picks. Whenever there is a back as good or nearly as good as the starter who's younger, cheaper and can stay healthy that's a cause for concern and a pretty big risk.

Plus, if you draft Jones you need to grab Barber as a handcuff and he won't be a cheap one either.

 

[Joe T]

JoeT --

How about caddy?  Along with Ronnie he showed flashes, but he actually got run down from all the carries gruden put him through.  Ronnie stayed healthy.

I like Caddy. He may be overrated 1 or 2 spots, but I think he's in the range he should go. You are right, Gruden over used him, but he still put up 1200 yards and 5 TD's while missing 3 games.He was great early and very good late in the season. When healthy, Caddy has shown he can carry the ball 20+ times a game and be a dominant back.

Ronnie Brown has not shown he can carry the ball 20+ times a game.

AH yes... credit the guy for being able to handle 20+ carries after he broke down quickly with that load and call a guy overrated because he hasn't had the opportunity to carry the ball 20+ times... I don't see the logic.

I'll take a guy who "breaks down" and puts up 290 carries.Eventually Gruden will learn you can't run a guy 30 times a game and expect him to last the season.

 

[MLBrandow]

Eventually Gruden will learn you can't run a guy 30 times a game and expect him to last the season.

Watch the plays where he was injured. They weren't the result of being worn down, but single plays where he took wrong steps. The only "bad" game he had was @NE, where Gruden's offense was simply out-classed all-around.He spent the offseason making sure he doesn't take any goofy steps like that again.

Go look up his ypc until said plays in question...

If you're going to rag on Gruden, rag on him because he wouldn't make Cadillac sit on the bench when he wanted to play, even though he was still hurt.

I'd be surprised if he gets anything under 375 attempts (rush+rec) this season. This entire offense is being molded to give him the rock constantly.

Do you think they'd do that if they saw signs of him wearing down after three games last season?

Someone else brought up a good point here earlier. When you (whomever posts his overrated RBs) post them, are they based on risk or actual production?

I suppose the obvious answer is both, but it would be interesting to see what some responses are.

For me, I don't even see a ceiling that matches Taylor's RB21 ADP, and the floor is much, much lower.

Jones I can see hitting solid numbers this year, but with legitimate whispers that MB3 might actually be winning the starting job, it doesn't sound like a situation I'd like to get involved with.

Bell is just a good change of pace back, and it seems that some people just don't want to accept it. While I don't necessarily think Dayne or Cobbs are better football players, their skillsets are better suited to consistently produce in Denver's system. I don't see the logic in drafting the backup before the starter.

Addai is going to have a very long uphill battle taking over in Indy. He won't be on the field for more than a few set packages a game for the first part of the season, and even when he gets Peyton's system down, he's going to have trouble unseating Rhodes, who will no doubt be putting up solid numbers. He could start a few games late in the season if IND is resting its players, but other than that, he only has value in '07 as a dynasty player. He'll have very marginal value this year unless Rhodes gets hurt. Accordingly, he's only worth as much as any other solid backup would be.

Foster is the same case as Bell. While he's very good when he's healthy, he's not healthy because he's not able to sustain a full-load. This is why Carolina spent a first-round pick on DeAngelo Williams. They didn't pick him because they wanted a third down back. He's going to start very early on.

Also wanted to throw Laurence Maroney on this list. He's going around the same place as most RB3s, but I honestly expect Dillon to have a fantastic season this year, and next year as well. If the Patriots drafted Maroney, it wasn't because they wanted to take him from his zone-blocking system. More likely, it means they want to implement a zone-blocking scheme of their own. When I sit back and imagine Dillon in a Denver-system, I get all warm inside. Even if he's running in NE's current system, I don't see him missing any time to injury this year more than a game or two, and I definitely see him approaching or even surpassing his '04 numbers. I see Maroney replacing Kevin Faulk until Dillon moves on.

 

[sholditch]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

He's high on my list as well.

agree here. Also, if you look at the games where he has carried the rock over 20 times, he's had exactly two good games in the past three years. Most of the time his ypc goes down significantly when asked to carry a full load, sometimes dipping below 3.0. People are going to go down in flames if they draft him before the third.

How many games does Chester Taylor have over 20 carries?

four, one last year and three in 200420/59/0

21/89/0

23/139/1

25/104/0

So we're talking about a sample size of 4 games, 2 of which were "good" (although I'd list the 21/89 game as good also).

I love the way people characterize stats without providing context. Chester "dipped below 3.0" exactly once when asked to carry twenty times or more. In that game, he averaged 2.95 yards per carry.

Dude, that was off the top of my head after looking at his stats a month and a half ago. Sorry for being...ohh wait, I wasn't wrong. Also, expand it to 10+ carry games over the past two years.

05:

11 for 32, 2.9

19 f0r 51, 3.1

11 for 40, 3.6

20 for 59, 3.0

04:

21 for 89, 4.2

18 for 78, 4.3

15 for 33, 2.2

16 for 61, 3.8

23/139/1, 6.0

25/104/0, 4.2

those numbers simply don't look that good.

 

[rascal]

Julius Jones easily.

Taylor at 21 is about right IMO, especially with the addition of three all-pro blockers.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

1. Deshaun Foster

2. Julius Jones

3. Mike Anderson

4. Kevin Faulk

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

Lamont Jordan 2004 NYJ 93-479-2, 15-112-0 RB43I guess you can go from never a starter to top 10.

Taylor 2005 BAL 117-487-0, 41-292-1

I'll take my chances

Lamont makes 1. An exception is not the rule. Taylor has to worry about Mewelde...he could be the 3rd down back. I like Taylor, but I don't see "steal" written on him.

 

[Banger]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

He's high on my list as well.

agree here. Also, if you look at the games where he has carried the rock over 20 times, he's had exactly two good games in the past three years. Most of the time his ypc goes down significantly when asked to carry a full load, sometimes dipping below 3.0. People are going to go down in flames if they draft him before the third.

How many games does Chester Taylor have over 20 carries?

four, one last year and three in 200420/59/0

21/89/0

23/139/1

25/104/0

So we're talking about a sample size of 4 games, 2 of which were "good" (although I'd list the 21/89 game as good also).

I love the way people characterize stats without providing context. Chester "dipped below 3.0" exactly once when asked to carry twenty times or more. In that game, he averaged 2.95 yards per carry.

Dude, that was off the top of my head after looking at his stats a month and a half ago. Sorry for being...ohh wait, I wasn't wrong. Also, expand it to 10+ carry games over the past two years.

05:

11 for 32, 2.9

19 f0r 51, 3.1

11 for 40, 3.6

20 for 59, 3.0

04:

21 for 89, 4.2

18 for 78, 4.3

15 for 33, 2.2

16 for 61, 3.8

23/139/1, 6.0

25/104/0, 4.2

those numbers simply don't look that good.

Look at Jamal's #'s over the same period and they will reflect generally the same pattern, higher in '04 and much lower in '05. The entire team fell apart last year so I would take what happened with a grain of salt. In '04 he only had one subpar game and it was the one in which he carried the fewest times. I'm not saying that Chester will be a homerun but he's got several possible keys to success, a good line, new coach with a running philosophy and opportunity. Can he fizzle? possibly but as the 21st rb o/a I feel he's worth the risk there and handcuff with MM later.

 

[MLBrandow]

It is absolutely to say Taylor can and/or will do what Jordan did. Look at Jordan's numbers before he went to OAK. He displayed every desirable characteristic of a feature back who was stuck behind a future HOFer. His YPC went up as the season went on, as the game went on, as he got more carries...

Taylor's YPC goes down in all three. I fail to see how this leads you to believe he's got "steal" written all over him. Quite the opposite for me.

Moore is by far the best RB of this group, and when he's healthy, he'll start. That's a handful of games off right there.

And Childress WANTS an RBBC.

Why would you think that Taylor is somehow going to have fantasy relevance? In a feature back role, he'll buckle faster than Superman after sex.

 

[NYG Endzone]

SJax

Portis

J Jones

 

[Marc Levin]

some interesting info about his injury in this thread

Great link - wonderful info in there from all our amateur docs.This is scary:

51% were unable to return to their preinjury activity levels, and 53% had persistent quadriceps strength deficits (>20% compared with the uninjured leg).

Of course, all this analysis does not really apply to athletes - athletes are a different breed than "normal" humans both in hterms of tolerance to pain and ability to heal.Not saying anything one way or the other - just that a lot of the info in that thread was based on us normal human beings. If the Packer docs are getting ready to clear him to play football, he must be in the group of 49% who recovered their preinjury activity level.

 

[MLBrandow]

SJax

Portis

J Jones

Portis? Justify.

 

[beto]

This is a great thread.

How about the most overrated WR? For me it's Javon Walker. He's drafted anywhere between WR12 and WR20. Do we really expect him to outscore Rod Smith?

 

[Sea Bass]

Dom Davis

Chester Taylor

 

[joffer]

some interesting info about his injury in this thread

Great link - wonderful info in there from all our amateur docs.This is scary:

51% were unable to return to their preinjury activity levels, and 53% had persistent quadriceps strength deficits (>20% compared with the uninjured leg).

Of course, all this analysis does not really apply to athletes - athletes are a different breed than "normal" humans both in hterms of tolerance to pain and ability to heal.

true, but normal people probably don't depend on the strength of the tendon near as much as an athlete, especially when being able to to return to "preinjury activity levels"

 

[Ron_Mexico]

1. Julius Jones

2. Chester Taylor

3. Steven Jackson

4. Jamal Lewis

5. Ronny Dayne

 

[RavenFan]

It is absolutely    to say Taylor can and/or will do what Jordan did.  Look at Jordan's numbers before he went to OAK.  He displayed every desirable characteristic of a feature back who was stuck behind a future HOFer.  His YPC went up as the season went on, as the game went on, as he got more carries...

Taylor's YPC goes down in all three.  I fail to see how this leads you to believe he's got "steal" written all over him.  Quite the opposite for me.

Moore is by far the best RB of this group, and when he's healthy, he'll start.  That's a handful of games off right there.

And Childress WANTS an RBBC.

Why would you think that Taylor is somehow going to have fantasy relevance?  In a feature back role, he'll buckle faster than Superman after sex.

I'll bet you've never seen Chester play a down. The guys runs hard, catches passes, and pass blocks well. Your also way underestimating his ability as a runner if you say Moore is clearly better. Again, why would the new coaching staff bring him in (on the 1st day of free agency!) if he was a downgrade from Moore???? I'm not saying he's the most talented back in the league, but I am saying he's a solid back who's ranked well at 21. Also, if he does get the majority of the work (I think he will), he'll probably outperform that slot.Also, everyone forgets that the Ravens have not had anything resembling a passing threat since forever. For Taylor to accomplish what he did on a team with a crappy line and crappy qb is very impressive to me. Sleep on him if you want, I think he'll open lots of eyes in Minn.

 

[Couch Potato]

1. Deshaun Foster

2. Julius Jones

3. Mike Anderson

4. Kevin Faulk

I guess I'll drop him out of the top 10 on my board then. Doesn't a guy have to be rated before he can be over-rated???

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

Lamont Jordan 2004 NYJ 93-479-2, 15-112-0 RB43I guess you can go from never a starter to top 10.

Taylor 2005 BAL 117-487-0, 41-292-1

I'll take my chances

Lamont makes 1. An exception is not the rule. . I like Taylor, but I don't see "steal" written on him.

I don't think Lamont is necessarily the exception or the rule, just refuting "never been a starter" as being an issue.

Taylor has to worry about Mewelde..

Just like Lamont had to worry about Fargas.

..he could be the 3rd down back

why would a guy who had 40+ catches as a backup not be a 3rd down back?

 

[MLBrandow]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

Lamont Jordan 2004 NYJ 93-479-2, 15-112-0 RB43I guess you can go from never a starter to top 10.

Taylor 2005 BAL 117-487-0, 41-292-1

I'll take my chances

Lamont makes 1. An exception is not the rule. . I like Taylor, but I don't see "steal" written on him.

I don't think Lamont is necessarily the exception or the rule, just refuting "never been a starter" as being an issue.

Taylor has to worry about Mewelde..

Just like Lamont had to worry about Fargas.

..he could be the 3rd down back

why would a guy who had 40+ catches as a backup not be a 3rd down back?

Oh, Fargas averaged well over 100ypg when he started? This I did not know.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Steven Jackson. Unless he's got huge lanes to run through, I always end up being unimpressed with his running ability. May not matter because he'll get plenty of opportunity this year. Also think he's an injury risk higher than most. Was among the league leaders last year in carries with zero or negative yardage gained. No hole....he goes down.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Chester Taylor

Never even been a starter and he's RB21 in the rankings.

Lamont Jordan 2004 NYJ 93-479-2, 15-112-0 RB43I guess you can go from never a starter to top 10.

Taylor 2005 BAL 117-487-0, 41-292-1

I'll take my chances

Lamont makes 1. An exception is not the rule. . I like Taylor, but I don't see "steal" written on him.

I don't think Lamont is necessarily the exception or the rule, just refuting "never been a starter" as being an issue.

Taylor has to worry about Mewelde..

Just like Lamont had to worry about Fargas.

..he could be the 3rd down back

why would a guy who had 40+ catches as a backup not be a 3rd down back?

Oh, Fargas averaged well over 100ypg when he started? This I did not know.

Obviously Moore was so overwhelming that they felt no need to get another runner.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

couch,

i also lol at the inclusion of kevin faulk.

 

[cowpie]

Tatum bell, no one ever knows who is the man on denver.

for all we know cobbs will be the guy by week 6.

 

[thehobbit]

Tiki Barber is overrated.

With Jacobs another year in, and Eli having a growning presence there is no assurances that Tiki will get the rock for the TDs this year, making him the same value as Warrick Dunn and mind you at the same age. Both backs should produce yards this year, but the disparity between Dunn and Barber is sickening and is based solely on Barber stats of the prior 2 years when Eli was a developing rookie more dependant on the run game. Expectations of Barber to perform as well as his shortlived pass is unlikely and Dunn is a better value pick with the likelihood of Duckett being a non-factor this year. Barber should be consider a mid-second round pick and no sooner.

Eli may have been in his second year, but his stats (other than accuracy related stats) didn't show it. Downgrading Tiki based on the notion that Eli will drastically improve this year is odd, considering where Eli finished last year. Three/Four/Five for Attempts, TD's, and Yards, respectively. How much better do you expect him to be? He tossed for 3,700/24 last year. Is he suddenly 4,500/30 or something?And Jacobs as well. The guy had 7TD's as it was, and Tiki had 9. How many do you seriously expect Jacobs to get next year? The guy seriously sucked at times at the goalline, not able to punch it in...and we won't even get into the fumbling issues he had.

Or is it that you don't expect the NYG O to do as well, while at the same time expecting Eli to do better?

Dunn is the better value pick. But I see no reason for Tiki not to be a 1st rounder. Especially when you consider the other options.

If Tiki isn't a first rounder to you, I really have to wonder what players your ranking above him.

Even with my list of picks I'd take before Barber, that doesn't really solve anything as people can easily lay an agrument that Barber is better than someone I may choose to rank higher base on historic averages. With that said, my basis for Barber being downgraded is solely this, I believe Shockey will be a key asset to the team this year and potential be the top TE producer this year(and no I do not own him in either of my 2 leagues, but would like too). I find it hard to support that Barber will have nearly 20 breakouts of over 20+ yards in either Rusher or Receiving as he had in the past 2 year. This is CRITICAL to the stat pading of Barber. No other running back(look it up if you don't believe) in the past two year has successful maintain near 20 breakaways of 20+ yardage for consecutive years. I find it very improbably for him to do so for a third consecutive year. In year's he has failed to provide significant breakouts, his fantasy performance was more tammed in the area of TD performances. As for the other factors, Eli should be a tad better than he was the previous year, but be the leader on the team moreso than Barber has been the past 2 years for generating things to happen.As for 12 Players I rank higher than Barber

Tomlinson

Alexander

LJohnson

Portis

Williams

James

Brown

Jackson

Manning

JohnsonR

JohnsonC

Jordan

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As for Captain Quinoa who said(Not a good Posting), You must have conjured your reply after you read the first 2 words of my post of Larry Johnson, and not read a word more, but in reality Johnson lovers are basing it on that fact that he did extremely well for 1 part season and Holmes has been successful there in the past. Do you think if Holmes was never anything spectatular that Johnson would be a top 3 pick with his breakout season? I sure do not, he be a 1st rounder, but not in the same likes at Tomlinson and Alexander, even I give partial credit because of Holmes previous success that Johnson should be able to maintain a productive level. I just fail to give him credit for an back to back insane season. Forecasting any RB for 20+ TD is nuts, IMO.

 

[Moonlight]

Due to health Dom Davis is overrated.

Ronnie Brown is underrated and is a top 10 back. He'll be on the field at all times. Was also hindered by an injury last year. Only question is whether he is durable enough. But I'll take that bet until proven otherwise. Splitting time with Ricky and Cadillac I dont see as an indictment in itself.

 

[clinton_c]

Being a cowboy fan I would say J.Jones is the most overrated. Its no secret that Parcells likes the way Barber plays.

I don't know about tatum bell...my spidey sense is telling me that he is going to break out and be a top 5 back.

...of course maybe everyone else is thinking the same thing, thus over-rated.

my head hurts.