Who is the Steelers RB to own going forward? (1 Viewer)

[JamesTheScot]

This blurb from earlier this year referencing Pro Footbal Focus' stats (specifically yards after contact per attempt) flies directly in the face of Dwyer running soft.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes there will only be a running back controversy in Pittsburgh if the Steelers don't start Jonathan Dwyer in Week 9.The offense simply works better with Dwyer as the smash-mouth hammerhead whereas Rashard Mendenhall tends to break runs outside. According to Pro Football Focus, 187 of Dwyer's 239 yards (78.2 percent) over the past two games have come after contact. Only C.J. Spiller entered Week 8 with a higher Yards After Contact per attempt average than Dwyer's 4.1, and that number only went up versus the Redskins. While coach Mike Tomlin remains noncommittal, we tentatively expect Dwyer to remain the primary early-down runner for Week 9.

He's one of the best YAC guys in the league, ESPECIALLY if he gets a head of steam.

And that's the thing, he's a bit of a build-up type runner. He doesn't have the acceleration and change of direction skills to create. But if you can give him a few steps to get his steam up he will absolutely pile drive his way for some yards. If you can seal him off in the backfield, he's then waiting for a hole and you can get to him before he's had a chance to get his momentum moving. That's what you've seen in some of his games. It really is the old cliche about getting the RB to turn east-west behind the line and you've got him.I don't know that he has the acceleration yet to afford to be a patient runner. Waiting for a hole to open means he has to wait to build speed. Once the hole does open up late in the play, it may close again before he can take full advantage. But I wouldn't classify him as unusually deficient in his acceleration either. He just falls into that group of serviceable backs that needs at least a little breathing room in the blocking to get working. The good news is that with another year of training and conditioning (and weight loss) Dwyer could still make significant improvement in that area and be even better in 2013.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Anyone starting Dwyer and over who?

This guy.Other options:Wallace - without Roeth, no chance; with Roeth, maybeDenarius Moore vs. Joe Haden - no thanksVick Ballard - nopeStewart - hurt

Starting him over.Murray (being eased back in)D.Brown (doing nothing)V.Ballard (unreliable # of touches)J.Stewart (both ankles injured)B.Powell (can I count on TD's every week?)A.Green (not doing enough with his touches)D.Richardson (inexplicably losing touches each week)D.Wilson (famously unrealized potential)J.Bell (see Bilal Powell)Yeah, my strategy of going heavy on WR (A.Johnson, J.Jones, H.Nicks) and shotgunning it at RB killed my season.

 

[flooredyas]

Great news today - Haley says that they are giving Dwyer a "great opportunity" and that they want to give Dwyer as many carries as he can handle, basically. “Jonathan’s got to show he can take the bulk of the carries without needing a break or taking a few plays off on the sideline,” Haley said. “That will kind of be what defines Jonathan as his career moves forward. He’s getting a great opportunity. We’ve been excited about some of the things he’s done, and hopefully he goes in and takes this role seriously and won’t let us take him off the field.”http://triblive.com/sports/3040017-85/steelers-game-butler-rice-woodley-hampton-ravens-ankle-baltimore-carries?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tribunereviewsteelers+%28Steel#axzz2DjRlmqfW

That's an "interesting" take on the article, and an excellent job of cutting/pasting only the part of the article that supports your take on the article. The part of the article right before your quote says:

Offensive coordinator Todd Haley suggests fumbles weren’t the only reason Jonathan Dwyer couldn’t secure the starting running back’s job until now. When he carries a couple of plays in a row, Dwyer sometimes signals for a replacement.

The way you posted it it, without the lead-in, makes it seem like Haley said "we're going to feed him the ball, over and over, and that they're excited about him being successful in that role." When you take the entire article in context, however, it suggests that Dwyer hasn't yet been able to establish a firm hold on the RB1 job is because he hasn't been able to handle it. He needs a breather every few plays. Basically, his conditioning is his biggest detriment. This is concerning, because Dwyer's conditioning has been an issue since he was a rookie.

Agree that the omited part has relevance, but I think the posted part carries more. Given his productivity and now opportunity, he will produce. This week? Without any symbalance of a passing attack will be very tough, even facing the Ravens, who have been a sieve for RB's this year. Need to hope for short TD's this week which could occur, as Flacco isn't a QB that will go unscathed vs. a solid Pitt. D. Grasping at straws, but he's in my lineup-with fingers crossed for those short plunges.

 

[zamboni]

Have to think that despite the Steelers winning and his big TD run, Dwyer didn't do too well to take over the bellcow role that Tomlin and Haley were hoping he would. IMO Redman looked better and was on the field a lot more than expected.

Looks like a hot-hand situation between Dwyer and Redman going forward, but for next year, I think Dwyer's dynasty value took a hit yesterday.

 

[munygon2]

He still had 16 carries though, which was more than Redman. It's definitely a hot-hand situation but with Ben coming back, it might open things up a bit more. We'll have to see. Right now you would have to consider Dwyer at maybe flex-worthy, but it seems like he's on a short leash for sure.

 

[zamboni]

Looks like the same next week: Dwyer to start, Redman to back up, Mendhenhall to be inactive and look for another team.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2012/12/dwyer-to-start-against-chargers-mendenhall-headed-for-inactive-list-again/

 

[Ace zero1]

Think I might start him over sproles this week but well see.

 

[MAC_32]

San Diego is playing a 1 o clock game on the east coast and after losing to the Bungles their season is over after losing games they put everything into 3 weeks in a row. I have zero confidence in Dwyer long term, but San Diego is in for a major letdown. Start Dwyer.

 

[Sir Psycho]

I'm afraid of starting Ridley this week anf if Big Ben is starting then Dwyer will take over Ridley.

 

[Ace zero1]

Rolling with Dwyer. Hoping for a good game.

 

[DoubleG]

Looks like the same next week: Dwyer to start, Redman to back up, Mendhenhall to be inactive and look for another team.

While this is obviously the case, color me shocked. In 2010 he had 1200+ rushing yards and 13 TDs. Last season, behind a bad o-line, he still put up 900+ on only 228 attempts (a respectable 4.1 YPC). So Mendenhall goes from bellcow, borderline RB1 in FF (and strongly contributing NFL RB) straight to the doghouse and off the team because of an injury and a fumble? Something else must be going on here. This doesn't pass the smell test. Tomlin either thinks he's doggin' it, isn't really that injured or Mendenhall has some issue.

 

[Hoosier16]

Something else must be going on here.

I think it's two things.1. Dwyer is simply better.2. Dwyer is cheaper to sign next year.

 

[Atmospheric River]

My money is still on Chris Rainey. You know I like it Rainey.

 

[zamboni]

Looks like the same next week: Dwyer to start, Redman to back up, Mendhenhall to be inactive and look for another team.

While this is obviously the case, color me shocked. In 2010 he had 1200+ rushing yards and 13 TDs. Last season, behind a bad o-line, he still put up 900+ on only 228 attempts (a respectable 4.1 YPC). So Mendenhall goes from bellcow, borderline RB1 in FF (and strongly contributing NFL RB) straight to the doghouse and off the team because of an injury and a fumble? Something else must be going on here. This doesn't pass the smell test. Tomlin either thinks he's doggin' it, isn't really that injured or Mendenhall has some issue.

Don't downplay the fumble by Mendenhall - it was actually two in about four carries a few weeks ago. Dwyer was benched for multiple games earlier this year after a costly fumble against Oakland.Also I think it could be that in Tomlin's view, Mendenhall isn't the same back he used to be prior to the injury. He's a shiftier type of runner than the more downhill Dwyer (or Redman), and that explosiveness isn't there. It may come back to Mendy, but maybe not worth the investment for the team next year.

 

[DoubleG]

Something else must be going on here.

I think it's two things.1. Dwyer is simply better.

2. Dwyer is cheaper to sign next year.

Unless you mean "since Mendenhall is hurt", then why hasn't he overtaken him in the past couple years? He never even registered more than 20 carries in either 2010 or 2011. That's not the case (or wasn't prior to the injury). That's part of my point - Tomlin sees something in Mendy post-injury that wasn't the case before. Either they rushed him back, he's not fully healthy or something else is wrong.

 

[Ace zero1]

Big Ben is back

 

[FF Ninja]

Something else must be going on here.

I think it's two things.1. Dwyer is simply better.

2. Dwyer is cheaper to sign next year.

Unless you mean "since Mendenhall is hurt", then why hasn't he overtaken him in the past couple years? He never even registered more than 20 carries in either 2010 or 2011. That's not the case (or wasn't prior to the injury). That's part of my point - Tomlin sees something in Mendy post-injury that wasn't the case before. Either they rushed him back, he's not fully healthy or something else is wrong.

Hahahaha, so stubborn. You just won't let it go, will you? Mendenhall has looked better than pedestrian for one season in his career, yet the Steelers stuck with him (would not be the first franchise to stick with a mediocre starter for no apparent reason). Now fatty Dwyer is getting his chance and is looking pretty good despite himself. If the guy could find the motivation to get in shape then who knows what he'd do. But please just let it go. Your switch from hyping Mendenhall to making excuses is just hard to watch.

 

[Ace zero1]

So will Dwyer be better this week?

 

[Bayhawks]

Hahahaha, so stubborn. You just won't let it go, will you? Mendenhall has looked better than pedestrian for one season in his career, yet the Steelers stuck with him (would not be the first franchise to stick with a mediocre starter for no apparent reason). Now fatty Dwyer is getting his chance and is looking pretty good despite himself. If the guy could find the motivation to get in shape then who knows what he'd do. But please just let it go. Your switch from hyping Mendenhall to making excuses is just hard to watch.

I realize this was posted before Sunday's game, but you suggest that Dwyer is "looking pretty good." He had two good games, where he gained 122 & 115 yards. Since then, he has been inactive once, got the majority of carries twice, by default (fumbling/injuries), and been the starter/main RB 3 times. He has not topped 100 total yards in those 5 games (81 is his high), has only managed 1 TD in that same span, has averaged 3.3 YPC, and has averaged 6.7 FF points (non-PPR). 3 of those teams Dwyer faced in that span are in the top-10 easiest FF matchups for RBs, while a 4th is the 13th easiest. Only one of those teams have been able to consistently shut down RBs (FF-speaking), this year. During that 5 game span, Dwyer has barely been a RB3 (RB 33).Now, I'm not suggesting we ignore his two good games, because they happened, and he did produce; but I don't think it's a great idea to let those 2 games over-shadow the fact that he hasn't done much since.Mendenhall is clearly on his way out next year, but I think that's due more to his contract situation, and his attitude this season, rather than a result of Dwyer out-performing him.

 

[MAC_32]

So will Dwyer be better this week?

Play better? or produce better? No, and probably. Dallas is very weak up the middle right now.

 

[Ace zero1]

So will Dwyer be better this week?

Play better? or produce better? No, and probably. Dallas is very weak up the middle right now.

At least more then 8 carries?

 

[MAC_32]

So will Dwyer be better this week?

Play better? or produce better? No, and probably. Dallas is very weak up the middle right now.

At least more then 8 carries?

Do you think they will fall behind by 24 points early in the 3rd quarter again?

 

[Bayhawks]

So will Dwyer be better this week?

Play better? or produce better? No, and probably. Dallas is very weak up the middle right now.

At least more then 8 carries?

Do you think they will fall behind by 24 points early in the 3rd quarter again?

Who knows with them this year?

 

[FF Ninja]

Hahahaha, so stubborn. You just won't let it go, will you? Mendenhall has looked better than pedestrian for one season in his career, yet the Steelers stuck with him (would not be the first franchise to stick with a mediocre starter for no apparent reason). Now fatty Dwyer is getting his chance and is looking pretty good despite himself. If the guy could find the motivation to get in shape then who knows what he'd do. But please just let it go. Your switch from hyping Mendenhall to making excuses is just hard to watch.

I realize this was posted before Sunday's game, but you suggest that Dwyer is "looking pretty good." He had two good games, where he gained 122 & 115 yards. Since then, he has been inactive once, got the majority of carries twice, by default (fumbling/injuries), and been the starter/main RB 3 times. He has not topped 100 total yards in those 5 games (81 is his high), has only managed 1 TD in that same span, has averaged 3.3 YPC, and has averaged 6.7 FF points (non-PPR). 3 of those teams Dwyer faced in that span are in the top-10 easiest FF matchups for RBs, while a 4th is the 13th easiest. Only one of those teams have been able to consistently shut down RBs (FF-speaking), this year. During that 5 game span, Dwyer has barely been a RB3 (RB 33).Now, I'm not suggesting we ignore his two good games, because they happened, and he did produce; but I don't think it's a great idea to let those 2 games over-shadow the fact that he hasn't done much since.Mendenhall is clearly on his way out next year, but I think that's due more to his contract situation, and his attitude this season, rather than a result of Dwyer out-performing him.

Oh, I totally agree. He's not setting the world on fire. But two 100+ yard games in five starts is "pretty good" to me. His 4.2 ypc on the season is unimpressive, but when you consider Redman is at 3.6 and Mendenhall is 3.3 then the 4.2 doesn't look quite as pedestrian (despite the Mendenhall lover quoting his career 4.1 ypc as respectable or something of that nature). I know every situation is different, but in this day and age 4.2 puts you on the fringe for replacement unless you've got a history of success. For example, Arian Foster is putting up a 3.9 season, but Kubiak knows Foster isn't to blame for that. But Shonn Greene and Mendenhall's teams will be letting them walk because by now they know what they've got in those two.Dwyer/Redman will be interesting next year. The o-line has clearly struggled, so their mediocre production can be understood. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see the coaching staff draft a rookie any more than if they choose to stick with what they've got and maybe bring in a "compete for carries" level FA in to solidify depth at the position. So long story short, I am in agreement with your last statement, too. Mendenhall has shown he's not worth a starter's salary and his attitude/off field issues just make the decision even easier. Dwyer and Redman have not forced him out, but I do think they at least have given the coaching staff peace of mind in that they aren't accepting a drop off in performance from Mendenhall to Dwyer/Redman should they come up empty handed after the draft/free agency.That being said, if the unlikely scenario arises that some team is willing to let Mendenhall plod out 250+ carries next year, BJGE-style, then he'll have value. BJGE has been exactly who I thought he would be, but he's gotten a ton of carries and the goal line looks, so he's plodded his way to RB12 in my non-PPR leagues. Proving that situation is more important than talent when just looking at one season.

 

[Patroclus]

I don't think the steelers RB to own is on the team yet.