I decided to look a bit deeper at how Gates, Jackson, and Floyd were targeted when all were healthy. Unfortunately, it's hard to find a lot of meaningful data. Floyd really didn't emerge until halfway through 2009, after Chambers was traded, and missed some partial games due to injury. Jackson had the holdout in 2010 and came back late in the season but not necessarily at his normal performance level. Gates played a lot of games hurt and missed some partial games. That said, here is how they were targeted in games all three played:
2009: All three played in 9 games (weeks 9-16 and 19) after Floyd became a starter. Their performance in those games:
Gates 69 targets, 49/715/5
Jackson 59 targets, 38/614/4
Floyd 47 targets, 28/415/0
2010: Technically, they were all active in week 12, but it was Jackson's first game back and he had 0 targets, then he missed the following game. So there was no real sample in 2010.
2011: All three played in 9 games (weeks 1-2, 7-8, 13-17). Their performance in those games:
Gates 57 targets, 41/516/4
Jackson 66 targets, 32/548/4
Floyd 55 targets, 36/702/4
Total over 18 games:
Gates 126 targets, 90/1231/9
Jackson 125 targets, 70/1162/8
Floyd 102 targets, 64/1117/4
Scaling that to 16 games yields the following:
Gates 112 targets, 80/1094/8
Jackson 111 targets, 62/1033/7
Floyd 91 targets, 57/993/4
Jackson and Gates were very close, with a clear gap between them and Floyd.
With the addition of Meachem (and Royal), Gates' role should be unchanged. It is obviously a matter of some debate as to how the WR roles will be different from the past. IMO the Chargers signed Meachem to replace Jackson and be their WR1, and I think it's clear Floyd will be the WR2. I think Brown will be the WR3 and Royal will not be a significant factor, but I know others disagree with that. Regardless, there won't be many targets to go around after the TEs (mostly Gates), RBs (mostly Mathews), WR1 (Meachem), and WR2 (Floyd). The WR3 (and thus obviously the WR4 and WR5) has held very little fantasy value for the Chargers over the years. Consider a couple previous posts:
San Diego's #2 WR has not traditionally had much fantasy value. They throw a lot to the RBs and TEs, and Rivers spreads the ball around between the #2/3/4 WRs.
Here are the number of targets for the second most targeted Chargers WR by season since Norv arrived:
2011 - 70 (Floyd)
2010 - 46 (Naanee)
2009 - 91 (Chambers)
2008 - 64 (Chambers)
2007 - 63 (Chambers)
It's pretty tough to have fantasy value with target numbers like that.
The offense is designed to throw a lot to the TEs and RBs. Since Norv arrived, the Chargers are last in the NFL in WR targets, and by a fair margin. They targeted their WRs 1215 times over those 5 seasons; the next lowest was Oakland with 1263, the median was 1561, and the leader was Arizona with 2074. Those are huge discrepancies.
...
IMO it is likely the offense will continue to throw a lot to the TEs and RBs. If they need a new TE to do that, I suspect they'll get one.
There are mitigating circumstances for those WR2 numbers (missed games, Chambers midseason trades), but the biggest factor IMO is how much the Chargers target the RBs and TEs, as shown by the other post. Even if they can sustain two useful WRs in addition to Gates, it seems really unlikely that Brown and/or Royal -- the WR3 and WR4 -- can be much of a factor, barring injury or a radical shift in the offensive philosophy.So... all that to figure out how to project Meachem and Floyd. I'm inclined to project them very close, something like this:
Meachem: 65/1050/8
Floyd: 60/975/4
There is definite upside above these numbers if any of Gates or Mathews gets hurt. And upside for Meachem if Floyd gets hurt, and vice versa.
Meachem clearly seems like the play here IMO, for a few reasons. First, he is a good red zone target despite not being targeted frequently in the red zone in New Orleans (I posted the data in
the other Meachem thread). Meanwhile, he also scored a lot of TDs from outside the red zone. And all of the other primary San Diego targets (Gates, Floyd, and Mathews) have had some difficulty staying healthy and on the field.
That said, Floyd may also be a nice upside play given his likely low price.
I don't think any other San Diego WRs will have useful value unless there are injuries, maybe multiple injuries.