Who was the worst QB in NFL history? (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Over at the PFR blog:

Two years ago I wrote up a post about the worst quarterbacks of all time. Today I’ll be updating that post, while tomorrow I’ll be writing about the best quarterbacks of all time. To save myself some headaches, I’ve separated out the methodology for ranking the QBs into a separate post. That’s pretty much required reading if you want to understand how the rankings were derived.

For starters, it always bugs me how much time NFL fans spend discussing the best quarterbacks ever, and how little time we spend discussing the worst QBs ever. Let’s start with the worst single season of all time.

I doubt anyone alive today remembers the name Bud Schwenk. That’s what happens when you throw 295 passes, and complete 126 of them to your team and 27 of them to the opponents. Yes, Bud Schwenk averaged an impressive 0.69 adjusted yards per pass attempt, while the league average outside of Scwhenk was 4.25 adjusted yards per pass (After 1969, every QB will be ranked by his net adjusted yards per attempt, but we don’t have reliable individual sack data from before then). Schwenk singlehandedly dropped the league average to 3.23 AY/A, which might have misled readers into seeing how bad he really was.

Six years later, Jack Jacobs was nearly as bad, averaging negative yards per pass attempt but on over 100 fewer passes. Ineptitude kept Jacobs from passing (sliding behind?) Schenk.

And the third worst QB season of all time? You need to fast forward 51 years, to 1999. Check out this stat line:

Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Sk SkYd ANY/A LgAvg ANY/A

201 381 52.8 2111 9 24 27 152 2.38 4.87

Plummer, in 1999, “contributed” 1,017 fewer yards to the Cardinals than the league average QB would have brought to the table. As far as modern seasons go, Plummer’s ‘99 stands as the worst. Here’s a list of the 25 worst seasons by any QB:

Rest of the info available here, including the worst QB all time by career, and each franchise's worst QB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Some interesting data here. Surprised to see only one Bears QB on this list . Lots of Bills QBs, and highly drafted rookies or young QBs.

How about the worst QB in the league for every season since the merger?Quarterback			Year	Team	 ANY/A   RatingTrent Dilfer		   2007	SFO	  2.09	- 754Andrew Walter		  2006	OAK	  2.69	- 764Kyle Orton			 2005	CHI	  2.97	- 815A.J. Feeley			2004	MIA	  3.15	- 806Joey Harrington		2003	DET	  3.56	- 738David Carr			 2002	HOU	  3.07	- 942Jon Kitna			  2001	CIN	  3.57	- 791Ryan Leaf			  2000	SDG	  2.91	- 697Jake Plummer		   1999	ARI	  2.38	-1017Bobby Hoying		   1998	PHI	  1.43	- 916Kerry Collins		  1997	CAR	  2.67	- 888Dave M. Brown		  1996	NYG	  3.03	- 797Bubby Brister		  1995	NYJ	  1.53	- 660Billy Joe Tolliver	 1994	HOU	  3.24	- 473Mark Rypien			1993	WAS	  3.04	- 598Stan Gelbaugh		  1992	SEA	  2.10	- 700Jeff George			1991	IND	  3.68	- 650Troy Aikman			1990	DAL	  3.63	- 548Troy Aikman			1989	DAL	  2.80	- 508Vinny Testaverde	   1988	TAM	  3.01	- 815Mark Malone			1987	PIT	  2.68	- 674Jack Trudeau		   1986	IND	  2.87	- 785Joe Theismann		  1985	WAS	  2.43	- 677Joe Ferguson		   1984	BUF	  2.61	- 750Joe Ferguson		   1983	BUF	  3.48	- 597Joe Ferguson		   1982	BUF	  3.06	- 490Dan Pastorini		  1981	RAM	 -0.24	- 813Phil Simms			 1980	NYG	  3.16	- 530Jeff Komlo			 1979	DET	  2.33	- 781Steve DeBerg		   1978	SFO	  1.58	- 681Randy Hedberg		  1977	TAM	 -3.21	- 723Gary Marangi		   1976	BUF	  0.72	- 721Archie Manning		 1975	NOR	  1.20	- 972Bob Lee				1974	ATL	 -0.08	- 762Dan Pastorini		  1973	HOU	  1.42	- 732Jim Plunkett		   1972	NWE	  1.94	- 732Dennis Shaw			1971	BUF	  1.47	- 704Joe Kapp			   1970	BOS	  0.56	- 857

 

[Lauryn]

leaf and dave brown stood out on that list

akili smith, the gelbaugh/mcgwire/mirer/friesz monstrosity for seattle, brad goebel, spergon wynn, steve pelluer, rob johnson, todd blackledge and hugh millen all stick out to me as well (even if they don't all technically qualify as far as #s).

 

[KoolKat]

Chris Weinke, Danny Kanell, and Bobby Hoying were the first few I thought of.

 

[Interseptopus]

Well, I for one am VERY happy to see Trent Dilfer on the list. Finally some statistical backing to what I've been saying for a long time, especially to those GB fans who wanted GB to sign him! He is awful, and he's among comparable QBs on that list

 

[FUBAR]

Love seeing Daddy Manning at #4

 

[FUBAR]

Not surprised to see Harrington as the worst QB ever, especially given how much "potential" he had.

Also not surprised at all to see most on top of that list were 1st round picks, high ones at that.

 

[BigRed]

There's a classic example of how stats usually only tell part of the story - at most.

 

[eric rymer]

kinda surprised not to see Heath Shuler on that list. kinda interesting to see some that are considered to be great QB's.... Aikman, Theisman, Manning.

 

[Team Legacy]

Worst Stat line in history that I can recall, is the Ryan Leaf stat line from 1998 against the KC Chiefs

3 09/20 @ KC L 7-23 1 1 1 15 6.7 4 0.3 0 2 2 23 0.0 4 1 0.3 0 4 3

1 completion

15 attempts

4 yards

0 TD's

2 Int's

2 Sacks

4 Fumbles

3 Lost

 

[Bruce Leroy]

Peter Tom Willis

 

[Chase Stuart]

Peter Tom Willis

PTW was really, really bad, but he never had more than 92 pass attempts in a season, making it hard for him to compare in "value" to some other awful QBs.

 

[JMon348]

speargon wynn

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

 

[Lash]

has to be Leaf

if you match the stats with what the team had invested

as far as Shuler, he was derailed by a severe foot injury (and his mobility was his greatest asset), hard to count that as "worst" even though he didn't put up good stats

 

[Manster]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

Cowboys were bad and he was young. Aikman proved himself to be a clutch performer, and one of the all time greats.i'm going with ryan leaf. what a pud he was.

 

[culdeus]

Those season by season things suffer from sample size issues. The career ones are more telling.

Okay, I know what you’re all waiting for. Let’s get to the career list.Quarterback Att RateJoey Harrington 2538 -2129Rick Mirer 2043 -2081David Carr 2206 -1804Ryan Leaf 655 -1607Frank Tripucka 1745 -1519Mike Taliaferro 966 -1501Gary Huff 788 -1433Kim McQuilken 272 -1392Alex Smith 800 -1353Kent Nix 652 -1335Davey O'Brien 478 -1320Mike Phipps 1799 -1299Kyle Boller 1311 -1292Danny Kanell 956 -1286Rick Norton 382 -1277Trent Dilfer 3172 -1275Tim Couch 1714 -1208Craig Whelihan 557 -1151John McCormick 555 -1146Dan Darragh 296 -1146Randy Wright 1119 -1117Dave M. Brown 1634 -1100King Hill 881 -1081Joe Kapp 918 -1078Bud Schwenk 662 -1057Dennis Shaw 924 -1051George Izo 317 -1037Josh McCown 1052 -1024Kelly Stouffer 437 -1013Jack Jacobs 552 -1005Scott Brunner 1046 - 995Dick Wood 1194 - 993Dan Pastorini 3055 - 993Heath Shuler 593 - 984Jack Thompson 845 - 969Randy Johnson 1286 - 951Akili Smith 461 - 939Jeff Komlo 437 - 916Stan Gelbaugh 391 - 913David Klingler 718 - 898

 

[Mr. Mojo]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

Cowboys were bad and he was young. Aikman proved himself to be a clutch performer, and one of the all time greats.i'm going with ryan leaf. what a pud he was.

Agree with Leaf and I'd add David Carr and Akili Smith.Couln't disagree more with Aikman who is obscenely overrated. Yeah he was very good when they had a great team around him, but he didn't do squat when the supporting cast wasn't top notch.

 

[bagarner]

Worst Stat line in history that I can recall, is the Ryan Leaf stat line from 1998 against the KC Chiefs3 09/20 @ KC L 7-23 1 1 1 15 6.7 4 0.3 0 2 2 23 0.0 4 1 0.3 0 4 3 1 completion 15 attempts4 yards0 TD's2 Int's2 Sacks4 Fumbles3 Lost

I'm glad you were able to dig up that stat line. That is just amazing. And it's too easy to vote for Ryan Leaf in this thread. It kind of depends on how you want to define worst QB in NFL history. In reality, we will never know who had the worst skill set and was least fit for the NFL. It was likely somebody who never even played. But Ryan Leaf was certainly one of the most disappointing and underachieving QBs, and caused the most damage to an NFL team.

 

[B Maverick]

Nice work, made it on to the FF Mastermind Quick Bits

-- Joey Harrington Worst NFL QB Ever --

Tue Jun 24, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Detroit Free-Press reports former Lions QB Joey Harrington is the worst NFL quarterback of all time according to Chase Stuart of Pro-football-reference.com. Stuart's list of worst NFL quarterbacks is made entirely off statistical evaluation. Here are the 10 QB's who topped the list: 1. Joey Harrington 2. Rick Mirer 3. David Carr 4. Ryan Leaf 5. Frank Tripucka 6. Mike Taliaferro 7. Gary Huff 8. Kim McQuilken 9. Alex Smith 10. Kent Nix. Stuart made this clarification about Harrington: To be clear, Joey Harrington probably isn't the worst quarterback of all time in an absolute sense. But in terms of being so far below average, but far enough above miserable to earn more playing time, Joey Harrington hurt his team more than any other QB in NFL history. If Harrington had been worse, he would have played less, and he wouldn't have set back the teams he played on. To put it another way, if you had the choice of getting Joey Harrington for 2,538 attempts, or Roger Goodell for 9 attempts you would certainly choose Goodell. At least after he's gone, your team has a chance.

 

[Steady Mooobin]

Tony Banks is easily the worst QB I ever saw play.

 

[lod01]

Nice work, made it on to the FF Mastermind Quick Bits

-- Joey Harrington Worst NFL QB Ever --

Tue Jun 24, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Detroit Free-Press reports former Lions QB Joey Harrington is the worst NFL quarterback of all time according to Chase Stuart of Pro-football-reference.com. Stuart's list of worst NFL quarterbacks is made entirely off statistical evaluation. Here are the 10 QB's who topped the list: 1. Joey Harrington 2. Rick Mirer 3. David Carr 4. Ryan Leaf 5. Frank Tripucka 6. Mike Taliaferro 7. Gary Huff 8. Kim McQuilken 9. Alex Smith 10. Kent Nix. Stuart made this clarification about Harrington: To be clear, Joey Harrington probably isn't the worst quarterback of all time in an absolute sense. But in terms of being so far below average, but far enough above miserable to earn more playing time, Joey Harrington hurt his team more than any other QB in NFL history. If Harrington had been worse, he would have played less, and he wouldn't have set back the teams he played on. To put it another way, if you had the choice of getting Joey Harrington for 2,538 attempts, or Roger Goodell for 9 attempts you would certainly choose Goodell. At least after he's gone, your team has a chance.

Swap #1 and #3. Carr outperformed Harrington as far as destroying a team's chances for victory. Detroit figured it out in 4 years. Houston took 5 years. Carr was better at sucking and giving the illusion of competant NFL QB. Therefore he gets the nod.

 

[SSOG]

Out of curiousity, what was Plummer's rate strictly for his time in Denver? I see that his Arizona stint rated as a -2143, the second worst stint by any QB on any single team in history (just a hair behind the worst all-time title). In fact, his Arizona stint alone was worse than Harrington's entire career. Still, his Denver stint must have rated at least a +1250 to keep him off the career worst list. That's actually pretty damn good (according to the best QB post, that 4-year span would have almost all by itself ranked Plummer as one of the top 75 QBs of all time).

Like I always say, supporting cast matters more than people want to admit.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Tony Banks is easily the worst QB I ever saw play.

This, I think, is actually very ironic in light of another study I'm working on. I'm not disputing this, but I've got a theory (more on this in a week or so), and Tony Banks being considered bad is good for my wacky theory.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Out of curiousity, what was Plummer's rate strictly for his time in Denver? I see that his Arizona stint rated as a -2143, the second worst stint by any QB on any single team in history (just a hair behind the worst all-time title). In fact, his Arizona stint alone was worse than Harrington's entire career. Still, his Denver stint must have rated at least a +1250 to keep him off the career worst list. That's actually pretty damn good (according to the best QB post, that 4-year span would have almost all by itself ranked Plummer as one of the top 75 QBs of all time).Like I always say, supporting cast matters more than people want to admit.

Yes, Plummer had a cumulative rating of -2143 over the six seasons in the desert.He was +512 his first year in Denver, +585 his second, +738 his third, and -278 his fourth.Just a reminder, in terms of saying he'd rank as one of the top 75 QBs of all time based on his Denver stats -- I use a 100%/95%/90%/85%, etc., rating system for each year. So if Plummer only played four seasons of his career, all in Denver, his rating would be 1518 and not 1557 (it doesn't matter a ton for Plummer, but it's worth keeping in mind if you try to reverse engineer other QB's ratings.)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Like I always say, supporting cast matters more than people want to admit.

I make no comment as to whether I agree with this, but here's a post from a guy I trust when I posted this study two years ago:

Fran Tarkenton’s status here makes for an important example in great QB discussions.When people want to argue against a great QB, they will often cite the talent around that QB as evidence that the QB wasn’t as good as his numbers, but was helped by a great system and other talented players.

Tarkenton played the first part of his career with the expansion Vikings and then the rather bad Giants. He played the second part of his career with Viking teams that competed for the Super Bowl every year (and a team that got to the Super Bowl without him). Clearly there’s a change in talent there.

And yet, based on these numbers, his impact in helping the bad teams and the good teams was basically the same. His work in the 70s (mostly with very good Viking teams) gives him a value of 3401. His work in the 60s (mostly with less talented teams) was good for a value of 3733.

So Tarkenton was as helpful to a bad team as he was to a good team.

I realize there aren’t a lot of quarterbacks out there with such a good clear split like Tarkenton’s career, but it still serves as in intriguing example of how much team quality really helps improve a QB.

Here are his year by year ratings. I haven't really gone year by year to see if this claim is true.

1961	min	741962	min	231963	min	1971964	min	7141965	min	5911966	min	3951967	nyg	8921968	nyg	6521969	nyg	7091970	nyg	6921971	nyg	681972	min	5811973	min	6811974	min	8731975	min	8731976	min	9801977	min	721978	min	-178

 

[Weiner Dog]

What about Terry Bradshaw's rookie season?

83-218

38.1%

1410 yards

6-24 TD/INT ratio

30.4 rating

1.8 adjusted yards per attempt

10.3% sack percentage

 

[Chase Stuart]

What about Terry Bradshaw's rookie season?83-21838.1%1410 yards6-24 TD/INT ratio30.4 rating1.8 adjusted yards per attempt10.3% sack percentage

I sort of assumed Bradshaw's '70 was going to make the list. It does rank in the top 50 worst seasons ever, but not the top 25.It's not the worst season in 1970, either. Joe Kapp had almost identical attempts and sack numbers, yet threw for 300 fewer yards and 3 fewer TDs. Bradshaw also added some decent value on the ground that year, but even excluding rushing data, he'd still be slightly "more valuable" than Joe Kapp that season.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

if you combine all these guys into the "Bears 2004 starting QB", where would it rank?

Chad Hutchinson

Jonathan Quinn

Craig Krenzel

Rex Grossman

Combined: 249 of 471 (52.9%), 2641 yards, 9TDs/16INTs, 5.6 y/a, 4.3 ay/a, 10.6 y/c, 165.1 y/g, 61.7 rating, 66 sacks for 449 yards, 4.1 ny/a, 2.9 any/a

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Some interesting data here. Surprised to see only one Bears QB on this list . Lots of Bills QBs, and highly drafted rookies or young QBs.

How about the worst QB in the league for every season since the merger?Quarterback			Year	Team	 ANY/A   RatingJoe Ferguson		   1983	BUF	  3.48	- 597

I wasn't surprised to see Joe on there, but I was surprised to see him as worst in the league for 3 straight years considering he was the Bills starting QB and leading passer for 12 seasons from 1973 to 1984. His career was clearly winding down by the point he showed up on this list but he did manage to stick around in the league until 1990.However, in 1983, he started all 16 games and led the Bills to an 8-8 record. He completed over 55% of his passes while throwing for 3000 yards and 26 TDs (and 25 INTs). Bills defense was awful so he had to throw a lot I guess which must hurt his numbers. Hard to believe he was the worst QB in the league, especially considering the Steelers ran out Cliff Stoudt who put up these numbers:197 of 381 (51.7%) for 2553 yards, 12 TDs/21 INTs, 51 sacks. Steelers still finished 10-6 that year though.Interesting stuff though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

if you combine all these guys into the "Bears 2004 starting QB", where would it rank?Chad HutchinsonJonathan QuinnCraig KrenzelRex GrossmanCombined: 249 of 471 (52.9%), 2641 yards, 9TDs/16INTs, 5.6 y/a, 4.3 ay/a, 10.6 y/c, 165.1 y/g, 61.7 rating, 66 sacks for 449 yards, 4.1 ny/a, 2.9 any/a

Let me take the easy way out.Grossman: +9 (thanks to being +11 in rushing)Hutchinson: -317Quinn: -391Krenzel: -468Total: -1168That would have been the second worst season ever, and the worst since 1942.

 

[puckalicious]

Today was the first time I heard Chase Stuart's name called out on the radio and it was glorious! WDFN 1130 AM here in Detroit talked about this list so we could bash Joey some more. The Stoney & Wojo Show gave Chase his props for the list at Pro-football-reference.com. Too bad they didn't call out Footballguys!!!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

That would have been the second worst season ever, and the worst since 1942.

sounds about right

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Today was the first time I heard Chase Stuart's name called out on the radio and it was glorious! WDFN 1130 AM here in Detroit talked about this list so we could bash Joey some more. The Stoney & Wojo Show gave Chase his props for the list at Pro-football-reference.com. Too bad they didn't call out Footballguys!!!

awesome. nice job Chase.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Some interesting data here. Surprised to see only one Bears QB on this list . Lots of Bills QBs, and highly drafted rookies or young QBs.

How about the worst QB in the league for every season since the merger?Quarterback			Year	Team	 ANY/A   RatingJoe Ferguson		   1983	BUF	  3.48	- 597

I wasn't surprised to see Joe on there, but I was surprised to see him as worst in the league for 3 straight years considering he was the Bills starting QB and leading passer for 12 seasons from 1973 to 1984. His career was clearly winding down by the point he showed up on this list but he did manage to stick around in the league until 1990.However, in 1983, he started all 16 games and led the Bills to an 8-8 record. He completed over 55% of his passes while throwing for 3000 yards and 26 TDs (and 25 INTs). Bills defense was awful so he had to throw a lot I guess which must hurt his numbers. Hard to believe he was the worst QB in the league, especially considering the Steelers ran out Cliff Stoudt who put up these numbers:197 of 381 (51.7%) for 2553 yards, 12 TDs/21 INTs, 51 sacks. Steelers still finished 10-6 that year though.Interesting stuff though.

If we excluded rushing data, Ferguson and Stoudt would have tied for the worst in the league that year, at -605. Including it bumps Ferguson to -597 and Stoudt all the way to -394. In other words, they were equally bad passers (mostly because Stoudt took an enormous amount of sacks compared to Ferguson), but Stoudt did run for 479 yards and 4 TDs. That's pretty good, and you can imagine that part of the reason Stoudt took so many sacks is because he was a scrambler -- which is why we want to include his good rushing numbers.Richard Todd, Ken Stabler and Scott Brunner all ranked in the bottom five that year, as well.Ferguson was really, really bad in '82 and '84. He wasn't awful in '83, but statistically he does rank as the worst.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Today was the first time I heard Chase Stuart's name called out on the radio and it was glorious! WDFN 1130 AM here in Detroit talked about this list so we could bash Joey some more. The Stoney & Wojo Show gave Chase his props for the list at Pro-football-reference.com. Too bad they didn't call out Footballguys!!!

That's very cool. Thanks for letting me know, puckalicious.

 

[Manster]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

Cowboys were bad and he was young. Aikman proved himself to be a clutch performer, and one of the all time greats.i'm going with ryan leaf. what a pud he was.

Agree with Leaf and I'd add David Carr and Akili Smith.Couln't disagree more with Aikman who is obscenely overrated. Yeah he was very good when they had a great team around him, but he didn't do squat when the supporting cast wasn't top notch.

you've got to be kidding. did you ever watch him play?

 

[SSOG]

Like I always say, supporting cast matters more than people want to admit.

I make no comment as to whether I agree with this, but here's a post from a guy I trust when I posted this study two years ago:

Fran Tarkenton’s status here makes for an important example in great QB discussions.When people want to argue against a great QB, they will often cite the talent around that QB as evidence that the QB wasn’t as good as his numbers, but was helped by a great system and other talented players.

Tarkenton played the first part of his career with the expansion Vikings and then the rather bad Giants. He played the second part of his career with Viking teams that competed for the Super Bowl every year (and a team that got to the Super Bowl without him). Clearly there’s a change in talent there.

And yet, based on these numbers, his impact in helping the bad teams and the good teams was basically the same. His work in the 70s (mostly with very good Viking teams) gives him a value of 3401. His work in the 60s (mostly with less talented teams) was good for a value of 3733.

So Tarkenton was as helpful to a bad team as he was to a good team.

I realize there aren’t a lot of quarterbacks out there with such a good clear split like Tarkenton’s career, but it still serves as in intriguing example of how much team quality really helps improve a QB.

Here are his year by year ratings. I haven't really gone year by year to see if this claim is true.
1961 min 741962 min 231963 min 1971964 min 7141965 min 5911966 min 3951967 nyg 8921968 nyg 6521969 nyg 7091970 nyg 6921971 nyg 681972 min 5811973 min 6811974 min 8731975 min 8731976 min 9801977 min 721978 min -178

For every anecdote, there is an equal but opposite anecdote. In this instance, Jake Plummer was RADICALLY better in Denver than Arizona. He was one of the worst QBs in NFL history in Arizona, and one of the best QBs in the league in Denver. That's a huge, huge, huge difference, and it's hard to attribute it to anything other than supporting cast.For anecdotes relating to elite QBs, there's always Elway (whose numbers were better at the end of his career despite a decline in physical skills and coinciding with a rise in surrounding talent) or Brady (whose numbers went through the roof once he finally got some receivers). For more examples of the Jake Plummer variety, why not Jeff Garcia (compare his San Fran numbers to his Cleveland numbers, for instance), or Donovan McNabb (with TO vs. without TO). I think the examples of a QB putting up RADICALLY better numbers in a good system or with good surrounding talent (or both) far outweigh the examples of a QB holding his value between good situations and bad situations.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'm shocked Jerry Tagge did not make the list.

My favorite bust was Rich Cambpell. The Packers invested fairly heavily there and the guy, to my memory, got nary a chance his coaches refusing to let him play as I recalled. Perhaps I should go back and look up his career.

 

[tombonneau]

I love that this was picked up by the Detroit Free Press. The excerpt from Chase's analysis is fantastic:

Joey Harrington rated the worst QB in NFL history

FREE PRESS STAFF AND NEWS SERVICES • June 24, 2008

Chase Stuart of Pro-football-reference.com recently updated his list of the worst NFL quarterbacks of all time. He originally created the list in 2006, but updated it to reflect recent stats. The list is made entirely off statistical evaluation. Here are the 10 QB's who topped the list:

Advertisement

1. Joey Harrington

2. Rick Mirer

3. David Carr

4. Ryan Leaf

5. Frank Tripucka

6. Mike Taliaferro

7. Gary Huff

8. Kim McQuilken

9. Alex Smith

10. Kent Nix

After the list, Stuart made this clarification about Harrington:

To be clear, Joey Harrington probably isn’t the worst quarterback of all time in an absolute sense. But in terms of being so far below average, but far enough above miserable to earn more playing time, Joey Harrington hurt his team more than any other QB in NFL history. If Harrington had been worse, he would have played less, and he wouldn’t have set back the teams he played on. To put it another way, if you had the choice of getting Joey Harrington for 2,538 attempts, or Roger Goodell for 9 attempts you would certainly choose Goodell. At least after he’s gone, your team has a chance.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm shocked Jerry Tagge did not make the list.My favorite bust was Rich Cambpell. The Packers invested fairly heavily there and the guy, to my memory, got nary a chance his coaches refusing to let him play as I recalled. Perhaps I should go back and look up his career.

Tagge ranks as the 577th best QB; Rich Campbell comes in at 603, but if he had played more, he would have been a lot worse.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Like I always say, supporting cast matters more than people want to admit.

I make no comment as to whether I agree with this, but here's a post from a guy I trust when I posted this study two years ago:

Fran Tarkenton’s status here makes for an important example in great QB discussions.When people want to argue against a great QB, they will often cite the talent around that QB as evidence that the QB wasn’t as good as his numbers, but was helped by a great system and other talented players.

Tarkenton played the first part of his career with the expansion Vikings and then the rather bad Giants. He played the second part of his career with Viking teams that competed for the Super Bowl every year (and a team that got to the Super Bowl without him). Clearly there’s a change in talent there.

And yet, based on these numbers, his impact in helping the bad teams and the good teams was basically the same. His work in the 70s (mostly with very good Viking teams) gives him a value of 3401. His work in the 60s (mostly with less talented teams) was good for a value of 3733.

So Tarkenton was as helpful to a bad team as he was to a good team.

I realize there aren’t a lot of quarterbacks out there with such a good clear split like Tarkenton’s career, but it still serves as in intriguing example of how much team quality really helps improve a QB.

Here are his year by year ratings. I haven't really gone year by year to see if this claim is true.
1961 min 741962 min 231963 min 1971964 min 7141965 min 5911966 min 3951967 nyg 8921968 nyg 6521969 nyg 7091970 nyg 6921971 nyg 681972 min 5811973 min 6811974 min 8731975 min 8731976 min 9801977 min 721978 min -178

For every anecdote, there is an equal but opposite anecdote. In this instance, Jake Plummer was RADICALLY better in Denver than Arizona. He was one of the worst QBs in NFL history in Arizona, and one of the best QBs in the league in Denver. That's a huge, huge, huge difference, and it's hard to attribute it to anything other than supporting cast.For anecdotes relating to elite QBs, there's always Elway (whose numbers were better at the end of his career despite a decline in physical skills and coinciding with a rise in surrounding talent) or Brady (whose numbers went through the roof once he finally got some receivers). For more examples of the Jake Plummer variety, why not Jeff Garcia (compare his San Fran numbers to his Cleveland numbers, for instance), or Donovan McNabb (with TO vs. without TO). I think the examples of a QB putting up RADICALLY better numbers in a good system or with good surrounding talent (or both) far outweigh the examples of a QB holding his value between good situations and bad situations.

I agree. Just wondered what your thoughts were w/r/t Tarkenton.Agreement notwithstanding, I do think RB and DEF don't matter too much for QBs. It's mostly WR, TE and OL. I know that's contrary to conventional wisdom, but that's what my experiments and readings suggest.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Very surprised to that no KC QBs made any lists, career or season. I would have thought Todd Blackledge or Steve Fuller would have been up there....but in the last 25 years KC has had mostly veteran QBs. I do think Croyle may end up on that list someday!

 

[Steady Mooobin]

Tony Banks is easily the worst QB I ever saw play.

This, I think, is actually very ironic in light of another study I'm working on. I'm not disputing this, but I've got a theory (more on this in a week or so), and Tony Banks being considered bad is good for my wacky theory.

After having this discussion with a buddy, Shaun King of Tampa Bay may actually hold the title or be 1a

 

[cstu]

Those season by season things suffer from sample size issues. The career ones are more telling.

Okay, I know what you’re all waiting for. Let’s get to the career list.Quarterback Att RateJoey Harrington 2538 -2129David Carr 2206 -1804Kyle Boller 1311 -1292Trent Dilfer 3172 -1275Akili Smith 461 - 939

The Tedford tree - Five recent NFL draft picks who played under Jeff Tedford at Fresno State, Oregon or Cal.Trent Dilfer - Drafted: 6th overall by the Bucs in 1994Akili Smith - Drafted: 3rd overall by the Bengals in 1999David Carr - Drafted: 1st overall by the Texans in 2002Joey Harrington - Drafted: 3rd overall by the Lions in 2002Kyle Boller - Drafted: 19th overall by the Ravens in 2003

The only one not (yet) on this list is Rodgers.

 

[SSOG]

I agree. Just wondered what your thoughts were w/r/t Tarkenton.Agreement notwithstanding, I do think RB and DEF don't matter too much for QBs. It's mostly WR, TE and OL. I know that's contrary to conventional wisdom, but that's what my experiments and readings suggest.

I don't really know what to make of Tarkenton. I don't know enough about the teams he played on to offer intelligent conversation on the subject. I also agree (and have long believed) that RBs and Defenses have very little impact on how well a QB plays. Thinking about this, it's rather intuitive- a stud RB might soften up defenses a bit... but he also demands touches, which takes the ball out of the QB's hands, especially on quality downs (i.e. not obvious passing situations). The QB's per attempt numbers might be better with a stud RB (or they might not, since he's likely getting a higher percentage of his attempts on third-and-longs and the like), but that's offset by the reduced attempts. Same thing with a defense- a good defense reduces the QB's need to force passes (and should reduce INTs), but also reduces the QB's need to pass in the first place (and therefore reduces his attempts).WR, TE, and OL all have a dramatic impact on a QB's performance, though. All of them improve the QB's play without reducing his number of attempts (if anything, they INCREASE the attempts). I think there's one other element that can make a QB look a lot better than he otherwise might- coaching. Like I said earlier (or was it in another thread? We're sort of spanning several threads with our conversation here), which is more likely- that Bill Walsh lucked into a third of the top-10 QBs in NFL history back-to-back-to-back, or that the presence of Bill Walsh made otherwise great QBs look like top-10 QBs? Coaching definitely matters, too.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

Cowboys were bad and he was young. Aikman proved himself to be a clutch performer, and one of the all time greats.i'm going with ryan leaf. what a pud he was.

Agree with Leaf and I'd add David Carr and Akili Smith.Couln't disagree more with Aikman who is obscenely overrated. Yeah he was very good when they had a great team around him, but he didn't do squat when the supporting cast wasn't top notch.

you've got to be kidding. did you ever watch him play?

Yes, all of his seasons.I still remember the game where they showed that his W-L records as a starting QB his last 3 seasons was the same as backup Jason Garrett.

That's what I mean when I say he didn't do squat when he wasn't surrounded by major talent.

Even Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl when he was surrounded by a talented team. I ackowledge that Aikman was much better than Dilfer, but he's still obscenely overrated.

 

[obxlegends]

Nice work, made it on to the FF Mastermind Quick Bits

-- Joey Harrington Worst NFL QB Ever --

Tue Jun 24, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Detroit Free-Press reports former Lions QB Joey Harrington is the worst NFL quarterback of all time according to Chase Stuart of Pro-football-reference.com. Stuart's list of worst NFL quarterbacks is made entirely off statistical evaluation. Here are the 10 QB's who topped the list: 1. Joey Harrington 2. Rick Mirer 3. David Carr 4. Ryan Leaf 5. Frank Tripucka 6. Mike Taliaferro 7. Gary Huff 8. Kim McQuilken 9. Alex Smith 10. Kent Nix. Stuart made this clarification about Harrington: To be clear, Joey Harrington probably isn't the worst quarterback of all time in an absolute sense. But in terms of being so far below average, but far enough above miserable to earn more playing time, Joey Harrington hurt his team more than any other QB in NFL history. If Harrington had been worse, he would have played less, and he wouldn't have set back the teams he played on. To put it another way, if you had the choice of getting Joey Harrington for 2,538 attempts, or Roger Goodell for 9 attempts you would certainly choose Goodell. At least after he's gone, your team has a chance.

I also caught them doing like 30 minutes on this earlier this morning on Sirius. Good stuff.

 

[Steady Mooobin]

I'm giddy that Aikman is on the list twice.

Cowboys were bad and he was young. Aikman proved himself to be a clutch performer, and one of the all time greats.i'm going with ryan leaf. what a pud he was.

Agree with Leaf and I'd add David Carr and Akili Smith.Couln't disagree more with Aikman who is obscenely overrated. Yeah he was very good when they had a great team around him, but he didn't do squat when the supporting cast wasn't top notch.

you've got to be kidding. did you ever watch him play?

Yes, all of his seasons.I still remember the game where they showed that his W-L records as a starting QB his last 3 seasons was the same as backup Jason Garrett.

That's what I mean when I say he didn't do squat when he wasn't surrounded by major talent.

Even Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl when he was surrounded by a talented team. I ackowledge that Aikman was much better than Dilfer, but he's still obscenely overrated.

Why was he overrated? He is one of, if not the most accurate passers in the history of the NFL. He played on a run first team. Outside of Michael and Novacek, he had nobody. Emmitt holding the record for yards and TD's among RB's will put a damper in your season totals.

 

[Zoomanji]

Nice work, made it on to the FF Mastermind Quick Bits

-- Joey Harrington Worst NFL QB Ever --

Tue Jun 24, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Detroit Free-Press reports former Lions QB Joey Harrington is the worst NFL quarterback of all time according to Chase Stuart of Pro-football-reference.com. Stuart's list of worst NFL quarterbacks is made entirely off statistical evaluation. Here are the 10 QB's who topped the list: 1. Joey Harrington 2. Rick Mirer 3. David Carr 4. Ryan Leaf 5. Frank Tripucka 6. Mike Taliaferro 7. Gary Huff 8. Kim McQuilken 9. Alex Smith 10. Kent Nix. Stuart made this clarification about Harrington: To be clear, Joey Harrington probably isn't the worst quarterback of all time in an absolute sense. But in terms of being so far below average, but far enough above miserable to earn more playing time, Joey Harrington hurt his team more than any other QB in NFL history. If Harrington had been worse, he would have played less, and he wouldn't have set back the teams he played on. To put it another way, if you had the choice of getting Joey Harrington for 2,538 attempts, or Roger Goodell for 9 attempts you would certainly choose Goodell. At least after he's gone, your team has a chance.

I also caught them doing like 30 minutes on this earlier this morning on Sirius. Good stuff.

It may have been the replay of last night's show where the kept mentioning Pro-football-reference.com but snubbed Chase. I was hoping he would call in last night.