Thunderlips
Footballguy
Isn't what's happening in the 2020 D field kind of what happened in the 2016 R field?
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Who will be left after the Left eats its own? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Max Power
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
They took back in the House in, what was seen the day after the 2016 POTUS election, as a "death knell" political cycle for them. They haven't been wasting time.
Me, I'm fine with 20+ candidates right now. Stopping Trump is going to be a tentpole for ANY of the candidates political message.20 candidates means 20 times this message will be broadcast.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
messages can get lost in the yammering of redundancy. Also, will be human nature to eventually try to differentiate and separate oneself from others which means potentially attacking one's stable mates. I am not predicting this, just noting that I have seen it in the past.
The nightmare scenario is that the Dems spend the next year tearing each other apart while Trump sits back, with no one laying a glove on him, and then picks and chooses which of those attacks he wants to repurpose on the eventual nominee. (Actually, the nightmare scenario is a contested convention, which Nate Silver keeps arguing is more plausible than most people think, but I also think that once it becomes clear that one candidate is on track to win the nomination, there will be huge pressure to clear the field and close ranks.)
Thunderlips
Footballguy
True.
To me though, it seems that most everyone who is "dooming and glooming" the D's chances in 2020 because of their rhetoric/tactics are forgetting that the same rhetoric/tactics worked for the R's during the Obama years; culminating in Trumps Presidency.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I hope I do not qualify as dooming and glooming. I think the Democrats are going to win handily. Of course I thought trump so flawed he could not win last time so obviously I am not very reliable on predictions involving him,. I was not predicting that the above would occur, just noting that it could in response to comments about how this Might be a problem.. I did not posit that Might, I only responded to the invitation to comment. ( I apologize in advance if I seem sensitive about accuracy on this point, but I do not want to in any manner be taken for supporting his chances. The man offends me to my core.)(to his supporters, I apologize for sharing my offense. I do not wish to inflame you. You are entitled to your positions and I, mine. Its just that we now live in a age of hyper-clarity in communication, and I did not care to be inaccurately taken in my stance.)
I'm not dooming and glooming (other than my genetic Jewish bias toward worrying and expecting the worst). But one thing that's very important to keep in mind: an open election like 2016 is very different from a re-election campaign like 2020. When Hillary and Obama in '08 or Hillary and Bernie in '16 were fighting it out, they didn't have an incumbent with no intra-party opposition and a huge war chest to fund negative ads against them.
I think it will be interesting how that dynamic plays out next year. One scenario that scares me is that Bernie is once again a strong second to Biden or Harris or whoever but feels determined to dig in and not let the Establishment screw him over like they did in '16 (I don't actually think they did, but clearly he and some of his supporters do). That could create real bad blood that could seep into the general election.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
That's a point I didn't think of.
I said in 2000....and I guess I'll say it again. If some of the more fringe or Leftist aspects of the Democratic Party have minimal interest in getting behind a candidate that they're aren't EXACTLY lockstep with....more power to them. I'd be hesitant to blame them for a loss, but cutting ones nose off to spite the face (in a redistricting year and an election cycle that will probably see another SCOTUS nomination; sorry RDB and another potential retirement if , at least in the case of Clarence Thomas(maybe Breyer)....his political affiliation wins the White House. ) is incredibly short sighted and will do more harm than good to their agenda.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
Trump got a huge boost from CNN during the primaries. Clinton wanted to face Trump and the airtime Trump got for his polling numbers at the time was unprecedented.
Trump being on twitter as much as he is will also be something the Dem candidates have to factor in. I fully expect him to live tweet any televised democratic event he can. I'm not sure if that will be a pro or con, but we're in uncharted waters.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He got a big CNN bump but I don’t think that was the media trying to help Hillary. Trump is Trump and dominated media coverage because he’s ridiculous. The media is very much to blame for where we are now. I think that’s partly the reason the media has also been so anti- Trump- they feel responsible for legitimizing him. They did it for ratings never thinking he could really win the primary or the election
As for Trump tweeting, it doesn’t matter. I think polling shows even amongst GOP, his tweets are one the least popular things he does.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Asking that question seems like it would be a lot more constructive than whining about "the left" and the MSM.
Here is a general overview: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/2020-candidates-president-guide/582598/
This is good for seeing a little more substance: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2020
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