Seymour Corn
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Who will win?
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Who will win? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Seymour Corn
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Seymour Corn
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
New England winning was good news for San Diego. The Jets had weapons at WR to take advantage of the Bolts secondary which isn't awful, however compare to that front 7 in San Diego...so the Pats will make a terrible match up with San Diego.
San Diego 27...New England 17
Bolts are going to AFC Championship.
San Diego 27...New England 17
Bolts are going to AFC Championship.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
San Diego never really has a home field advantage....playing on the road is meaningless to the Pats (except in Denver for some reason).
Is Marty due for a playoff win?
Is Belichick/Brady due for a playoff letdown?
I'm sticking with historical trends....23-13 Pats.
Is Marty due for a playoff win?
Is Belichick/Brady due for a playoff letdown?
I'm sticking with historical trends....23-13 Pats.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
The Chargers are 20-4 at home over the last three years, including an undefeated home record this year.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think he means weather wise, or the fact that Radier,Steeler, Packer, etc., fans seem to come to the stadium in large numbers.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
My head can't really make a decision as I could see it going either way for a ton of reasons.So I went with my heart too and took the Chargers.I think this may be the best game of this postseason, and I'd like whoever wins this one to win it all, as they seem like the two most complete teams in the NFL (no offense intended to the Ravens, Bears or Saints).Workhorse said:
americanwit
Footballguy
Chargers have the edge in talent.
Patriots have the edge at QB
Patriots have the edge in Coach
Schottenheimer is a choke artist
Winner - Patriots
Patriots have the edge at QB
Patriots have the edge in Coach
Schottenheimer is a choke artist
Winner - Patriots
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm
Which team is ranked as the best team? Believe it or not, it's the New England Patriots. The Chargers rank second.
Even factoring in HFA (which is incredibly irrelevant this year -- just 1.38 instead of 3.54 last year), the Pats are slightly ahead. I'm looking at Pure Points, which is the best predictor of future results.
So why is a 12-4 team ranked ahead of a 14-2 team? Mostly because of schedule. The Pats played seven top ten teams, and beat five of them. The Chargers played just two (Baltimore and Cincinnati) and split them.
NE had the 8th hardest schedule; SD had the 27th. SD played the absolutely awful NFC West, while the Pats at least played the Bears (along with the absolutely awful NFC North). NE also played in a much harder division, and played Cincy and Denver; SD's out of division games were Tennessee and Buffalo. NE played the AFC South, SD played the AFC North.
Common games?
Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, Cincinnati
NE went 4-1 and was +56. SD went 5-0 and was +80. That's pretty close, and it's made more even by NE playing Tennessee in week 17 and Denver in week 3, while SD played Tennessee in week 2 and Denver in week 14. They really weren't that common.
In other words, I think these teams are more even than people realize. SD barely beat Cincinnati, and NE killed them. NE and Indy (5) are the only teams with more than 3 wins against top 10 teams.
However, the stats underwhelm SD quite a bit. Merriman and several other IDPs on SD missed some time, and I believe they're all healthy right now. I also think the bye is a pretty big advantage for SD here. The Jets FWIW, beat NE coming off their bye, so maybe having two weeks to prepare for NE is a big deal.
Key stat: Tom Brady has never won a playoff game when the other team is coming off a bye and the Patriots aren't, and the Patriots have lost their last two games against an opponent coming off a bye (Denver in the playoffs last year, the Jets this year). Brady has won a playoff game on the road against just one team.
Which team is ranked as the best team? Believe it or not, it's the New England Patriots. The Chargers rank second.
Even factoring in HFA (which is incredibly irrelevant this year -- just 1.38 instead of 3.54 last year), the Pats are slightly ahead. I'm looking at Pure Points, which is the best predictor of future results.
So why is a 12-4 team ranked ahead of a 14-2 team? Mostly because of schedule. The Pats played seven top ten teams, and beat five of them. The Chargers played just two (Baltimore and Cincinnati) and split them.
NE had the 8th hardest schedule; SD had the 27th. SD played the absolutely awful NFC West, while the Pats at least played the Bears (along with the absolutely awful NFC North). NE also played in a much harder division, and played Cincy and Denver; SD's out of division games were Tennessee and Buffalo. NE played the AFC South, SD played the AFC North.
Common games?
Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, Cincinnati
NE went 4-1 and was +56. SD went 5-0 and was +80. That's pretty close, and it's made more even by NE playing Tennessee in week 17 and Denver in week 3, while SD played Tennessee in week 2 and Denver in week 14. They really weren't that common.
In other words, I think these teams are more even than people realize. SD barely beat Cincinnati, and NE killed them. NE and Indy (5) are the only teams with more than 3 wins against top 10 teams.
However, the stats underwhelm SD quite a bit. Merriman and several other IDPs on SD missed some time, and I believe they're all healthy right now. I also think the bye is a pretty big advantage for SD here. The Jets FWIW, beat NE coming off their bye, so maybe having two weeks to prepare for NE is a big deal.
Key stat: Tom Brady has never won a playoff game when the other team is coming off a bye and the Patriots aren't, and the Patriots have lost their last two games against an opponent coming off a bye (Denver in the playoffs last year, the Jets this year). Brady has won a playoff game on the road against just one team.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
What? The AFC East had 35 wins. The AFC West had 34 wins. That sound a bit even to me. Even if you want to say the AFC East is better because of having one more win, saying it was a much harder division is more than just a bit of a stretch.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The AFCE opponents NE played had 23 wins; the AFCW opponents SD played had 20 wins. The AFCE also had a harder schedule than the AFCW.Rankings off that site: Buffalo/NYJ/MIA: 10/11/15; Den/KC/Oak: 13/18/32.The Dolphins are obviously much, much better than the Raiders. I think the Jets and Bills are slightly better than the Chiefs and Broncos. Much was probably an overstatement, but there's no denying that six games against NYJ/BUF/MIA is a good deal harder than six against KC/DEN/OAK.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
i like this type of analysis, but it's very difficult for me to believe that the Bills and Jets are better than the Broncos and Chiefs.
I'd rank them: Broncos, Chiefs, Jets, Bills.
And of course the Phins are light years better than the Raiders, which makes the two divisions about equal, IMO.
I'd rank them: Broncos, Chiefs, Jets, Bills.
And of course the Phins are light years better than the Raiders, which makes the two divisions about equal, IMO.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Last year was only 2-2, but historically the teams with the bye go about 3-1 this round. With Martyball's playoff monkey still on his back it would not surprise me if this is the one game that the road team wins.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Buffalo had the hardest schedule in the league this year. The Jets had the 6th hardest. KC and Denver had just slightly above average schedules in terms of difficulty. Denver lost to two terrible teams, STL and SF, and a team that wasn't very good, Seattle. (Seattle played the single easiest schedule in the league and got oustcored this year. They were a below average team this year. I don't believe this to be debatable. KC lost to Miami (who both the Jets and Bills swept) and a bad Cleveland team.The Jets lost to Cleveland, and that was their only bad loss this year. The Bills lost to the Lions, who are terrible, but that's it.Losing to STL, SF, Sea, Mia, Cle is worse than losing to Cleveland and Detroit.I'm pretty confident that the Jets and Bills were better than the Broncos and Chiefs. Cutler and Plummer had a combined 74.7 QB Rating; let's not forget that Denver couldn't pass the ball at all. Losman had an 84.9 QBR and Pennington had an 82.6 rating.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Hasn't the home team won every playoff game so far this year? Or am I delusional?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Rivers makes more mistakes than Brady, and the Pats win with another defensive TD:
Pats 34
Bolts 24
(I was hoping the Chiefs would beat the Colts, as the Bolts are much better than the Ravens).
Pats 34
Bolts 24
(I was hoping the Chiefs would beat the Colts, as the Bolts are much better than the Ravens).
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Home teams have a .531 winning percentage this year; that's really, really low.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Home teams have a 1.000 winning percentage in the playoffs this year.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Is that good? That sounds good.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
come on
Broncos>>>Bills
Broncos>>>Bills
f360spyder
Footballguy
Agree with both of you.Gonna go with a clutch kick by Kaeding to win it for the Bolts.
DocNiner52
Footballguy
Plain and simple, the Chargers win. It's their destiny this year. Besides,Belichick sealed his fate when he barely even wanted to acknowledge Mangini's existence 
when the Jets beat his Pats and then when the Pats won the playoff game almost barreling over a photographer to get to Mangini so he could give him a loving hug 
and tell him what a great coach he thought he was 
when the Jets beat his Pats and then when the Pats won the playoff game almost barreling over a photographer to get to Mangini so he could give him a loving hug and tell him what a great coach he thought he was
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Wheelhouse
Footballguy
I specifically did not choose LT in the playoff contest because of this matchup. 
I just think Belichick knows that to beat SD, you have to stop LT - but more importantly, I think he knows how to. I can see them defending LT the same way they played Marshall Faulk in their first SB win over the Rams. They used defensive speed on the sides to eliminate any kind of seam on the outside that LT has made a career of running. Stop LT, stop San Diego's offense. I will say that losing Rodney Harrison (against his old team too) will be a setback that could wind up hurting New England.
We'll see... Most anticipated game of the weekend IMO
I just think Belichick knows that to beat SD, you have to stop LT - but more importantly, I think he knows how to. I can see them defending LT the same way they played Marshall Faulk in their first SB win over the Rams. They used defensive speed on the sides to eliminate any kind of seam on the outside that LT has made a career of running. Stop LT, stop San Diego's offense. I will say that losing Rodney Harrison (against his old team too) will be a setback that could wind up hurting New England.We'll see... Most anticipated game of the weekend IMO
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Faulk averaged 4.5 YPC and 11.5 YPR in that game.I specifically did not choose LT in the playoff contest because of this matchup.I just think Belichick knows that to beat SD, you have to stop LT - but more importantly, I think he knows how to. I can see them defending LT the same way they played Marshall Faulk in their first SB win over the Rams. They used defensive speed on the sides to eliminate any kind of seam on the outside that LT has made a career of running. Stop LT, stop San Diego's offense. I will say that losing Rodney Harrison (against his old team too) will be a setback that could wind up hurting New England. We'll see... Most anticipated game of the weekend IMO
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Rivers is 14-2 as a NFL starter.SeniorVBDStudent said:Rivers makes more mistakes than Brady, and the Pats win with another defensive TDats 34Bolts 24(I was hoping the Chiefs would beat the Colts, as the Bolts are much better than the Ravens).
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
What's your point?Rivers is 14-2 as a NFL starter.SeniorVBDStudent said:Rivers makes more mistakes than Brady, and the Pats win with another defensive TD
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
SD is 2-0 vs Bill in recent years.I specifically did not choose LT in the playoff contest because of this matchup.I just think Belichick knows that to beat SD, you have to stop LT - but more importantly, I think he knows how to. I can see them defending LT the same way they played Marshall Faulk in their first SB win over the Rams. They used defensive speed on the sides to eliminate any kind of seam on the outside that LT has made a career of running. Stop LT, stop San Diego's offense. I will say that losing Rodney Harrison (against his old team too) will be a setback that could wind up hurting New England. We'll see... Most anticipated game of the weekend IMO
Workhorse
Footballguy
Pretty unbelievable stat courtesy of Cold Hard Football Facts:
Here’s a look at the cumulative passing performance of opposing quarterbacks in these 28 postseason games against a Belichick defense:
534 for 1,016 (51.6%), 6,530 yards, 6.5 YPA, 30 TDs, 39 INTs, 66.5 passer rating
Eleven of those games were played against MVP-award-winning QBs; six were played against future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at the cumulative passing performance of opposing quarterbacks in these 28 postseason games against a Belichick defense:
534 for 1,016 (51.6%), 6,530 yards, 6.5 YPA, 30 TDs, 39 INTs, 66.5 passer rating
Eleven of those games were played against MVP-award-winning QBs; six were played against future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
As always, games of this magnitude will be decided by turnovers. I give the edge to the Bolts and say they help NE give the ball up 3 times (2 picks, 1 fumble).
Nigel
Footballguy
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Let's not forget the last time these teams met up, early in 2005. The Chargers won 41-17 and dominated the entire second half. Tomlinson and Turner combined for 178 rush yards and Gates tore it up, a lot of which had to do with Rodney Harrison not being around. San Diego's D got good pressure on Brady and pretty much stuffed the NE run game, and I think all of those factors should still be in play. San Diego has only improved since then, and I don't know that New England at this point is as physical as they'll need to be against a team that can beat you in so many ways.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
How many INT's did Brady throw in his last road playoff game?Brady has 5 picks in 12 career playoff games.
einstein2u
Footballguy
i am not betting against belichick...no way.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
I'm not convinced that the Patriots will win this weekend, but I can say that this defense is MUCH better than last year's defense. Harrison was out, yes, but his replacements were much worse than his replacements this season - Harrison has been out a lot this seaosn, and safety hasn't been much of a problem at all. Also Bruschi was out for that Chargers game, and it was very much a defense in disaray. The defense this year is playing much better, the D-line is much better than last season, and most importantly, they're playing there best football right now for this game.Just my .02.
Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 51-13, a .796 winning figure. Usually the reason the home teams are home in the first place is that they are better than the wild-card teams. Equally important, in the divisional round the home teams have spent a bye week relaxing in hot tubs while their opponents were out in the cold being pounded.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Phillip Rivers was unimpressive in a
pressure game against Seattle, who
at the time was decimated with injuries to their
secondary.
It's too much too soon for Rivers.
He will be exposed by the best defensive unit in Patriots club history.
Patriots 27
Chargers 16
pressure game against Seattle, who
at the time was decimated with injuries to their
secondary.
It's too much too soon for Rivers.
He will be exposed by the best defensive unit in Patriots club history.
Patriots 27
Chargers 16
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I'd love to take the Chargers and get 11 points for any amount of money in the world.Phillip Rivers was unimpressive in a pressure game against Seattle, whoat the time was decimated with injuries to theirsecondary.It's too much too soon for Rivers.He will be exposed by the best defensive unit in Patriots club history.Patriots 27Chargers 16
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Do you mean when Rivers led the team down the field for a game-winning TD in the last minute of the game? Oh, okay.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
And in the past 12 years, the top seed in the AFC has made the Super Bowl only 3 times.In the past 10 years or so, on average there has been one road team that wins in the Divisional Playoffs. last year there were two.And while I do think SD will win, 7 of the Chargers last 9 wins have come by a TD or less (really one possession as one or two were by 8 points).
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Well, if we're not going to forget 2005, let's not forget 2004, 2003 or 2001 either.Does anyone outside of NE realize that the 2006 New England Patriots defense is the best in team history? Better than their SB teams. Better than the teams that befuddled Peyton Manning...Sleep well, Philip.
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Kit Fisto
Footballguy
I'm curious, of those 9 top seeds to not make the Super Bowl in the past 12 years, did any of them lose to say.... an underrated team that no one thought could possibly go to their home field and beat them?I give the Chargers all the respect in the world, but the 15-1 Steelers looked pretty tough once too. I feel confident about Sunday.
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parrot
Footballguy
That was Harrison's first game out, no Bruschi, and Vrabel had been moved to the outside with Chad Brown and Monty Beisel playing the middle. The horrible Duane Starks at one corner. That was a much different defense.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I definitely think the Pats CAN win, especially if they protect Brady like they did against the Jets, force Rivers to be the driving force of the offense and really confuse him, and don't turn the ball over. IMO, LT will get his no matter what, but if you contain him to say 125 yards, SD will still need another250 yards to win. that being said, I think that the SD will be disruptive, the Pats defense will again give up a long TD, and in the end the Chargers this year have more talent than NE. But we will find out if a better coach and a better/seasoned QB can trump that advantage.
That's nice. This year's Chargers offense is also much better than last years.That was Harrison's first game out, no Bruschi, and Vrabel had been moved to the outside with Chad Brown and Monty Beisel playing the middle. The horrible Duane Starks at one corner. That was a much different defense.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
While I agree with your post, the biggest collection of talent doesn't win SBs. The best TEAM does. See Indy if you disagree.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
The Chargers really have been great as a team all season long, not just on the field but off it as well. These guys are really playing for each other this year to a greater extent than I've seen possibly ever on a Charger squad. They've been through as much, if not more, adversity than the Pats (for instance) this year and they've never folded, never turned on each other and never quit.
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No one possibly thinks they can go home and beat them? Are you watching the national media at all? Rivers gets treated like Rex Grossman. Everyone seems to forget that the contain LT, force Rivers to beat you gameplan has been in place since week 1. Meanwhile LT had a career year, and Rivers finished the season with a 92 QB Rating and a Pro Bowl selection.
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