Seymour Corn
it=info
Who will win?
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Who will win? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Seymour Corn
- Start date
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
NFL + Saints + Hero stories + Hurricane relief = Win
I'm not sure what any of that, besides the actual NFL Saints playing the Bears, have to do with the game being played next Sunday.
Chicago fan base >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Saints fan base
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hero stories
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I hope so!A rematch of the 1985 Superbowl sure would be nice.Chicago fan base >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Saints fan base>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hero stories
ThreatLevelMidnight
Footballguy
I think the home team takes it.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Grossman has a bad game just about every other game, so he's due again
Per my rankings:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=2&t=299811
Magic numbers (scoring offense ranking + scoring defense ranking):
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Saints (5th offense, 13th defense) 5+13 = 18
Both have magic numbers comparable to Super Bowl champs.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies (yards per point):
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
The Bears hold an edge on BOTH sides of the ball in this matchup. Teams better in both OE and DE are 13-2 in conference titles games since 1990. The two losses were the 98 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 03 Eagles to the Panthers.
The Saints have inverted efficiencies. That means their OE is higher than their DE. That's rare to see in the final four and it usually is a characteristic of bad football teams. The 03 Panthers and the 96 Jaguars are the only other clubs to make the conference title game with inverted efficiencies since 1990. The 03 Panthers beat the Eagles and lost to the Patriots. The 1996 Jaguars lost to the Patriots.
To sum up:
The Bears OE and DE are vastly superior to the Saints and because of that I really like the Bears here.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=2&t=299811
Magic numbers (scoring offense ranking + scoring defense ranking):
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Saints (5th offense, 13th defense) 5+13 = 18
Both have magic numbers comparable to Super Bowl champs.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies (yards per point):
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
The Bears hold an edge on BOTH sides of the ball in this matchup. Teams better in both OE and DE are 13-2 in conference titles games since 1990. The two losses were the 98 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 03 Eagles to the Panthers.
The Saints have inverted efficiencies. That means their OE is higher than their DE. That's rare to see in the final four and it usually is a characteristic of bad football teams. The 03 Panthers and the 96 Jaguars are the only other clubs to make the conference title game with inverted efficiencies since 1990. The 03 Panthers beat the Eagles and lost to the Patriots. The 1996 Jaguars lost to the Patriots.
To sum up:
The Bears OE and DE are vastly superior to the Saints and because of that I really like the Bears here.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Yah. I like it because really it focuses on some of the most basic fundamental stats in the game, like points scored and allowed and yards scored and allowed. It makes sense that those would be important, and they seem to be.
saintsfan
Footballguy
I hope you are joking.Whatever system this guys used to figure out that the Saints offense is worse than the Bears is wrong. PERIOD.
I don't care what the (cherry picked) stats say. The Saints have a top 5 offense in football. The Bears offense has done everything in it's power to give games away since the middle of the season.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I need a couple days to figure this one out. I was four for four this weekend. People are listening. 
sainttillidie
Footballguy
sainttillidie
Footballguy
LOL, The Saints are way ahead of the Bears on Offense and do enough on defense to win. Ask the Eagles.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
I think New Orleans is gonna be the common folk's preference - and why not? They're a great story on many levels.
I don't think the weather will factor in too much either - so may the best team win.
It looks like the spread is anywhere from Chicago -1.5 to Chicago -3. Which means that New Orleans is viewed as the better team, since typically the home team is automatically a 3 point favorite.
I don't think the weather will factor in too much either - so may the best team win.
It looks like the spread is anywhere from Chicago -1.5 to Chicago -3. Which means that New Orleans is viewed as the better team, since typically the home team is automatically a 3 point favorite.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
The flaw I see is that he's taking points scored - something the Bears D and ST have done lots of - and dividing by yards, a strictly offensive stat. That's not entirely a measure of offense. I'm also not a fan of yards, a positive stat, essentially being a bad thing in the calculation.
Last edited by a moderator:
guderian
Footballguy
Plus he's using data from 19 weeks ago and weighting it the same as data from last week. The Bears were playing lights out in the first 6 games or so by scoring 30+ and allowing less than 10 ppg. Just look at some of their division games. Beat GB 26-0 week 1 and lost to them 7-26 in week 17. They beat Detroit 34-7 in week 2 and only beat them 26-21 near the end of the season. In the first 8 games of the season they allowed over 20 points only twice, but they allowed 20+ in 4 games in the last 8 games of the season including games against offensive powerhouses GB, Detroit and Tampa Bay. Furthermore, in 4 of their first 5 games they allowed <10 points, but they've allowed over 20 in their last 5 games. The Saints have gotten better as the season has progressed. In the beginning of the season they struggled to beat Cleveland by 5 and GB by 7. Toward the end of the season they beat Atlanta by 18, SF by 24, Dallas by 25, and they Giants by 23. It's clear that the Bear's defense and Grossman aren't playing as good as they were early in the season (remember the Grossman for early season MVP talk?) and that ranking system doesn't capture that fact.
Its very, very, hard to draw meaningful data from just 4-5 games though. You're talking about a very concentrated field of opponents for one thing. Its easier to get into a stretch where all your opponents are playing very well.The Bears finished up the schedule with:Rams: they ended the year 3-1.Buccanneers: struggled to 1-3.Lions: Played 3 close games to possible playoff teams at the end of season, losing to the Packers and Bears by one score and beating the Cowboys.Packers: Ended the season 4-0.Its possible the Bears' performance dropped because they were running into some clubs playing well. I can't be sure. But I can try to mitigate that factor by including the entire 16-game season in my data with equal weighting.
Last edited by a moderator:
diesel7982
Footballguy
Seymour Corn
it=info
bump
guderian
Footballguy
Well that creates an issue. I agree that the Bears "averaged over the course of 2007" would beat the Saints "averaged over the course of 2007", but I think the Bears are not playing as well as they were early in the season and the Saints are playing much better. In the first 8 games of the year the Bears outscored their opponents by 234-100 (+134 points). The Saints outscored their opponents only by 198-159 (+39 points).
Over the last 8 games of the regular season the bears outscored their opponents by only 193-155 (+38 points), whereas the Saints outscored their opponents by 215-163 (+52 points). That goes to +62 over 7 games if you exclude the Saints' last game against Carolina where their starters only played one series.
The one thing that stands out in this analysis is the Bears' +134 points over their first 8 games, and this has equal weighting in your analysis. The Bears defense allowed only an average of 12.5 points per game over their first 8 games, but they only held one team to less than that in the last 8 games. The Bears are feeling the loss of key defensive players and that has clearly affected the play of their defense in the second half of the season.
I think your system would be improved if it considered near-term data at a greater weighting.
Last edited by a moderator:
shakeybarn
Footballguy
Funny...
minority thought Indy would beat KC
minority thought Indy would beat Baltimore
minority thought Pats would beat SD...
i'm sticking with the Ind/Chi superbowl.... you can stick to the Saints winning on the road.... and Peyton choking.
minority thought Indy would beat KC
minority thought Indy would beat Baltimore
minority thought Pats would beat SD...
i'm sticking with the Ind/Chi superbowl.... you can stick to the Saints winning on the road.... and Peyton choking.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
ATC1
Footballguy
Posted this in the other thread.
Saints have a problem with quick backs breaking it to the the outside after the inside hole was not there. Ala Westbrook, FWP. Containment on the defense was horrible. I don't think the bears will be able to do that with Jones or Benson. Westbrook was not able to run up the middle.
Fred Thomas was replaced by Jason Craft in the second half for the most part, and did a great job. Garcia to have success the second half needed time to make his progressions to Basket and Smith. Garcia also had his success gaining time by scrambling out of the pocket. Something that Grossman does not do. Grossman will need to be patient and find the open man. He did that more last week than I seen during the season, so we would need to see more next week.
The saints will spread the bears defense out, make the LBs cover someone and see if they can run the ball with Duece. Or if the LBs step up to gaurd the run, the seem will be open for the TE.
Brees has actually played better on the road this season, I think it will be if the supposting cast will come focused to catch the ball or hold on to it in Chicago.
The Bears will need to try to force TO, try to make a big play in the special teams, and try for the big play on offense. However, I have not seen the Saints offense pack it in when their defense gives up those big plays. It will be tougher for them to do this against the bears at their house.
Saints have a problem with quick backs breaking it to the the outside after the inside hole was not there. Ala Westbrook, FWP. Containment on the defense was horrible. I don't think the bears will be able to do that with Jones or Benson. Westbrook was not able to run up the middle.
Fred Thomas was replaced by Jason Craft in the second half for the most part, and did a great job. Garcia to have success the second half needed time to make his progressions to Basket and Smith. Garcia also had his success gaining time by scrambling out of the pocket. Something that Grossman does not do. Grossman will need to be patient and find the open man. He did that more last week than I seen during the season, so we would need to see more next week.
The saints will spread the bears defense out, make the LBs cover someone and see if they can run the ball with Duece. Or if the LBs step up to gaurd the run, the seem will be open for the TE.
Brees has actually played better on the road this season, I think it will be if the supposting cast will come focused to catch the ball or hold on to it in Chicago.
The Bears will need to try to force TO, try to make a big play in the special teams, and try for the big play on offense. However, I have not seen the Saints offense pack it in when their defense gives up those big plays. It will be tougher for them to do this against the bears at their house.
mlball77
Footballguy
Some have overlooked, but Benson was effective against some tough run teams in the second half of the season. He ran up the gut pretty strong against teams like Minnesota and New England. I don't know how the Bears coaching staff will factor him into the game, but I really feel that if Jones is not able to get around the corner, such as you suggest and could very well be the case, then Benson will probably be able to grind some nice runs between the tackles. Just my opinion.
Well, my question is this: DOES my system need to be improved?How do you improve on a system where, if the fundamental numbers fall into place, teams are 13-2 in AFC/NFC title games and 7-0 in super bowls since 1990?And even if I could improve on it, how is it really measurable? There have been two primary failures. That's too small of a sample size to really tell.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
guderian
Footballguy
Try to follow along here...I was responding to a post where someone argued that the Saints were completely over-matched against the Bears because of a statistical analysis they did that equally weighted games as far back as week 1 and weighted those the same as games in week 17.Please don't try and turn that into an argument that I'm not making. TIA. As far as Brees not hitting 5k yards, I recall a bunch of "Grossman is MVP" chatter from the Bears crowd early in the season. Seems like that died down a bit.
guderian
Footballguy
Funny that you picked the conference where there have been the most upsets...
guderian
Footballguy
1. Please define "before" when you said the "Saints are blazing it up like they did before." In their last 6 meaningful games they beat Atlanta by 18 (on the road), SF by 24, Dallas by 25 (on the road), the Giants by 23 (on the road) and a hot Philly by 3. Their losses were against Washington in a let down after the Cowboys game and Carolina when they played their second/third strings. 2. As far as Brees down the stretch--you don't really need to throw the ball much when you are beating teams by 18, 24, 25 and 23...3. "and see if Brees can beat them"...please, please, please let it come down to this. I seriously hope Lovie Smith is game planning to make Brees beat them...
saintsfan
Footballguy
If Lovie completely sells out to stop Deuce and Reggie, Brees is gonna torch them deep.That's the Bears problem in this game. The Saints are too balanced to stop everything. if Tommie Harris is healthy, then I think they could stop the run without selling out to do it. Without Harris, Lovie can't shut down the run completely without exposing himself to Colston, Horn, and Henderson in the passing game. They couldn't do it against Green Bay or Seattle and I don't think they can do it against the Saints.Unless the Saints turn the ball over and give the Bears short fields the whole game, I think the Saints have a great shot to win this game. Unless we have 4 ft of snow or something.guderian said:
Zoot
Footballguy
you know what to doI need a couple days to figure this one out. I was four for four this weekend. People are listening.
Or Shaun Alexander. Oops.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Reggie Bush will be a NON-factor on Sunday.McCallister and Brees can beat the Bears, but not Bush.He's soft and he'll crack in the cold. Playing on grass isn't going to help him either - it'll neutralize him.
Moldy Potato
Footballguy
Reggie is no stranger to grass.Did you see the Browns game? Steelers? Giants?All grass fields, all impressive games for Bush. Not to mention, Rivera has already stated that Bush will be the main focus for the D. Whether Reggie succeeds statistically remains to be seen, but if nothing else, he will certainly help take attention off of Brees and Deuce.Don't underestimate Reggie's impact.
Last edited by a moderator:
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
LOL... That would be Rivera blowing smoke out his ####. How did that Steelers game go for the Saints, please remind me, as it's the only good team on your list of places he's played. The Meadowlands has fieldturf btw.. since 2003So let's see, their two road losses this year: Carolina and Pittsburgh... both natural grass.
And you want more bad news? Bush is pretty pathetic on grass surfaces:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/407605/splits/2006
Last edited by a moderator:
valhallan
Footballguy
Reggie on grass? Who cares.
You need to worry about Deuce. He will follow the same footsteps Shaun Alexander carved out on Soldier Field. He's healthier, more brutal, and hungrier. Plus the Saints won't fail to capitalize on turnovers.
GRID, it's just what I said several weeks ago - the Saints are the one opponent the Bears do not want to see. Can Rex and that pitiful tandem of TJ and Cedric keep up with McAllister, Brees, Colston, Henderson, and Bush? We're not talking about a shady Seahawks team who put together their best offensive output in weeks against you on Sunday, we're talking about the best offense in the league. Do you really think it's going to be easy?
You need to worry about Deuce. He will follow the same footsteps Shaun Alexander carved out on Soldier Field. He's healthier, more brutal, and hungrier. Plus the Saints won't fail to capitalize on turnovers.
GRID, it's just what I said several weeks ago - the Saints are the one opponent the Bears do not want to see. Can Rex and that pitiful tandem of TJ and Cedric keep up with McAllister, Brees, Colston, Henderson, and Bush? We're not talking about a shady Seahawks team who put together their best offensive output in weeks against you on Sunday, we're talking about the best offense in the league. Do you really think it's going to be easy?
guderian
Footballguy
Bush is tough. I've seen him take some extremely hard hits and pop back up and I've seen him take it straight to a bigger defender and move them back. That said, I'm happy with a game plan aimed at shutting down Bush.
RBM
Footballguy
valhallan
Footballguy
Two top-10 picks posting 4.1-yard averages? Yeah, they're pitiful.Sorry.
geoff8695
Footballguy
I think when this game is over you may find yourself very surprised at how much better Cedric Benson is than you anticipated going into it.I'm not saying he's going to have a better career than Reggie Bush, just that he's a lot less pitiful than you describe and a lot more of a talent than you expected.CB is a determined powerful, downhil runner, with enough burst to reach the edge from time to time. He is able to gain big chunks of yardage after contact and if the Bears coaching staff is as smart as I think they are, then I think this is the perfect game to utilize his abilities to punish the Saints D and eat up clock to keep the Saints offensive playmakers off the field.The Bears are clearly better than the Saints on D & Special Teams and enjoy the homefield advantage. Therefore, if I'm Lovie Smith I gameplan around limiting the Saints only possible advantage... Their talented skill position playmakers on the offense.Feel free to let me know how pitiful you think the Bears running attack is afterwards.Two top-10 picks posting 4.1-yard averages? Yeah, they're pitiful.Sorry.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
