Who Would Be Willing To 'Reach' For ? (1 Viewer)

[RalphMouth]

Players you have or will 'reach' for this drafting season-

'Reaching' = taking earlier than their ADP with the belief they will explode.

I'm drafting in the 12th slot & think that those on either end of the draft

have a bigger chance of 'reaching' for a player because they know said player won't be there 23-24 picks later. I like to start runs rather than getting

caught on the wrong side of one.

Eric Decker, Matt Ryan & Ridley are a few names that come to mind for me.

 

[Abraham]

I'm not sure that Ridleys adp isn't going to drop by two rounds this week.

 

[RalphMouth]

I'm not sure that Ridleys adp isn't going to drop by two rounds this week.

Please explain your thoughts

 

[Ilov80s]

I am at the back end of a 12 man and if I can get one of the stud tight ends and on the wrap around reach for Julio, I will because he is going to explode.

 

[Sweet Love]

Oddly, I have gotten him in the last round of each draft I have done, but Bilal Powell screams value. Not that i think he will be great, but to get a top 32 RB in the last round of 16-18 round drafts, shouts value.

 

[VaTerp]

Brandon Marshall

Willis McGahee

Donald Brown

Cedric Benson

Percy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

 

[Soulfly3]

Hoo-Lee-Oh

 

[urbanhack]

Antonio Brown

Torrey Smith

 

[Funkley]

Hoo-Lee-Oh

This

 

[silentcoach]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

I was actually surprised how early Benson went in my two drafts yesterday. I think he will be a guy you'll have to "reach" for if you want him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Victor Cruz. Cam Newton. Torrey Smith (non-PPR). Marques Colston.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Nobody. I go in with a plan of 2-5 players I am targeting each round, but every draft has some variance from consensus. Big runs on a position equates to value elsewhere.

I let the draft come to me. I start new runs, generally.

 

[tjnc09]

Hillis

 

[two_dollars]

Reached a round ahead for Justin Blackmon as my WR4 in PPR. (start 3)

 

[The Ref]

I kept Brown in a situation that most others wouldnt and I got a lot of bad words thrown at me.

 

[meatwad1]

I pretty much picked players that i wanted last night and in the process selected some players further ahead.

For example, I took Sproiles 2.9 and Jordy Nelson at 3.2. Those are elevated values but I took them because I feel they are going to both blow up this year.

 

[ponchsox]

I pretty much picked players that i wanted last night and in the process selected some players further ahead.For example, I took Sproiles 2.9 and Jordy Nelson at 3.2. Those are elevated values but I took them because I feel they are going to both blow up this year.

Sproles blew up last year and his TD totals were an anomaly.

 

[pwtrash]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

 

[meatwad1]

I pretty much picked players that i wanted last night and in the process selected some players further ahead.For example, I took Sproiles 2.9 and Jordy Nelson at 3.2. Those are elevated values but I took them because I feel they are going to both blow up this year.

Sproles blew up last year and his TD totals were an anomaly.

Yes...I get that conventional wisdom says that his numbers were an anomaly, but I am looking at it from the perspective that his skills are a perfect fit for the offense. I just think he is going to maintain production because the Saints are probably aiming to stay with what works. I see Nelson being the #1 target this year. I could be wrong, but there was little to no chance either player was coming to me at 3.9 and 4.2, and i really am not excited on the whole for many players in the #20 - end of the draft range. On the negative side, I had a chance to pull the trigger on getting Antonio Brown and Doug Martin (two players I really wanted) at the 4/5 turn, but I second guessed myself (probably because I had been chancing it the first three rounds) and went with a Dez Bryant/Fred Jackson combo thinking they would fall to at the 6/7...I ended up missing them by three picks as they both went back to back in the middle 6th. I would say go with your gut at all times otherwise you will end up with two players, like DeSean Jackson and Brandon Lloyd, that you do not really want on your team.

 

[meatwad1]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

A guy took Julio 1.5 in my league last night.

 

[ratbast]

Hillis

I just did! TD Heavy league.

 

[rickyg]

Greg Olsen

Hillis

Ryan Williams (just a gut feeling that he is going to be this years biggest draft steal at rb)

 

[duaneok66]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

 

[chiefs2929]

Julio Jones, Doug Martin

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Donald Brown

Marshall

Harvin

Pettigrew

depends on which adp one uses as well

 

[cantstop1999]

P.Hillis

Non-Ppr 12 teamM.Ryan,M.VickD.Mcfadden,P.Hillis,S.Green,M.Ingram,R.Jennings,J.Jones,J.Nelson,D.Heyward-bey,S.Holmes,A.GatesA.HenryG.B.,Buffalo

 

[FF Ninja]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

 

[RalphMouth]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

yep- taking a player at the 50th slot when his ADP is 65th is a 'reach' Not saying that's horrible.. could work out.

 

[duaneok66]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

 

[LHUCKS]

Benson and McGahee

 

[Banger]

For me it was easily Kevin Jones and now with the injury I've backed off a bit. Not a ton of guys that I like rounds better than ADP he was one that id pay for.

 

[cobalt_27]

I will overpay for Andrew Luck. Especially in any dynasty/keeper format. That said, I think he has a decent chance to put up top-10 QB numbers this year. So, yeah, I'll overpay for that guy.

For a reference point, I can envision him outperforming Cutler, Schaub, Freeman, Flacco, Griffin III...and then 3 of the top-12 QBs (such as Romo, Vick, Roethlisberger) due to injury. So, it might look something like this...

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Brees

4. Stafford

5. Ryan

6. Cam

7. Rivers

8. Manning, P.

9. Manning, E.

10. Luck

Wouldn't bet a farm on it. But, I'll overpay in fantasy football to grab him.

 

[happy_donut]

For me it was easily Kevin Jones and now with the injury I've backed off a bit. Not a ton of guys that I like rounds better than ADP he was one that id pay for.

Did you mean Kevin Smith?

 

[Banger]

For me it was easily Kevin Jones and now with the injury I've backed off a bit. Not a ton of guys that I like rounds better than ADP he was one that id pay for.

Did you mean Kevin Smith?

Haha. Yup.

 

[lazyike]

I would be willing to take Eva Longoria with my 1st pick

 

[Dragon1952]

Brandon Marshall

Willis McGahee

Donald Brown

Cedric Benson

Percy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

A guy took Julio 1.5 in my league last night.

and that's about where you'd have to grab him to define it as a reach

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

A guy took Julio 1.5 in my league last night.

EEK

 

[Bobby Guano]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

A guy took Julio 1.5 in my league last night.

EEK

I could make a case for 1.02

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Brandon MarshallWillis McGaheeDonald BrownCedric BensonPercy Harvin (In my main league scoring system)

Nice list. I'd take Marshall and McGahee for sure. Probably Benson. Marshall is looking at 1300+, I think. And Julio. He's looking to be a beast - throw in a few less carries for Turner and a few more screens for Jacquizz and I would consider reaching for Ryan.

A guy took Julio 1.5 in my league last night.

EEK

I could make a case for 1.02

Proceed ETA: So hes better than Calvin now? you people need to stop the madness .... I'm about to start a Julio Jones is overvalued thread

 

[silentcoach]

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.Again, to each his own.

+1. You are only waiting b/c of the perception that he should go lower. If you have a player rated higher then take him where you THINK he should go if it ensures you will get him. You don't know how other players in your league are thinking.ex: To some, T.Smith's adp is low and think his ADP should be higher. I don't really see a big deal if someone "reaches" if they really think T.Smith should be higher (some think top 12). Taking T.Smith in rd 4 is not a "reach" if you think he is top 12 AND it hurts your opponent who thought he could pass on wr early and land t.smith in rd 6 or 7. Sure, we all like to maximize value compared to adp, but taking a top 12 wr in the fourth can also be value in itself. Meanwhile, your opponent has the T.Smith they "reached" for in rd 4 and you are stuck with the ADP value of Wayne, who you do not have pegged as a top 12 wr, in rd 6 or 7. Congrats. Screw perception-- these are the peope who are "shocked" when NFL teams draft players earlier than all the ESPN announcers thought--GASP!!!!We are there to draft our own teams, not based on some prexisting ADP list.**I am not agreeing or disagreeing that T.Smith could be top 12, but some in these forums believe so, so I am using it as an example.

 

[Steel Dillo]

12 team PPR drafting 9th.

Took Torrey Smith at 5.9 & Brandon Pettigrew at 6.4. Both were a full round ahead of their ADP, but I wasn't taking the chance of missing on either one.

 

[FF Ninja]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Not too chicken or afraid of perception, just not stupid. Not that I'm calling you guys stupid, but it would be stupid to reach over 2 rounds to grab a guy. It's just like shopping for a car or a house. You can't fall in love with one or you'll get taken. You've gotta go in with a game plan and stick to your guns. Don't fall victim to position runs.There are tools. A lot of these sites will give you the ADP for a player as well as the # of drafts taken into account in that ADP along with the high draft pick and low draft pick. So you aren't just blindly following the ADP thinking it is gold. There's even a website that will give you the % likelihood of a player being available at a certain pick. I'm not saying to trust one source wholeheartedly, but be smart - use all the data available.

Bottom line, reach for the guys you truly believe in but don't be stupid. Reaching is a real thing, but it's not a bad thing. You've gotta ensure you get the players you want, but be realistic. And have a backup plan. Don't draft Ridley in the 3rd when Mathews or Lynch are still on the board. That's silliness. Personally, I'll be happy with Hillis or Ridley in the 5th/6th range depending on scoring and roster settings. No player is a sure fire thing so no need to way overpay for a guy. Use ADP to your advantage.

 

[Bobby Guano]

12 team PPR drafting 9th.Took Torrey Smith at 5.9 & Brandon Pettigrew at 6.4. Both were a full round ahead of their ADP, but I wasn't taking the chance of missing on either one.

12 team PPR redrftNice....I waited a little to long on Torrey because I reached for Riddley in the 5th, then my brother snatched him from me 2 picks ahead in the 6th so I settled for Wayne:/I was able to get him in my keeper league though

 

[silentcoach]

FF Ninja, I understand your point of view but you fail to see mine. If ADPS were used in real life NFL drafts as you suggest for fantasy football, then there would be no need for NFL scouts and teams should just use Mel Kiper (analogous to public percetion).

You fail to acknowledge that "reaching" can also be value in itself, as mentioned in my post.

If X has a ADP of 100 but I think he is rb 1. Taking this rb in rd 4 is a reach, but STILL value.

 

[FF Ninja]

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.Again, to each his own.

+1. You are only waiting b/c of the perception that he should go lower. If you have a player rated higher then take him where you THINK he should go if it ensures you will get him. You don't know how other players in your league are thinking.ex: To some, T.Smith's adp is low and think his ADP should be higher. I don't really see a big deal if someone "reaches" if they really think T.Smith should be higher (some think top 12). Taking T.Smith in rd 4 is not a "reach" if you think he is top 12 AND it hurts your opponent who thought he could pass on wr early and land t.smith in rd 6 or 7. Sure, we all like to maximize value compared to adp, but taking a top 12 wr in the fourth can also be value in itself. Screw perception-- these are the peope who are "shocked" when NFL teams draft players earlier than all the ESPN announcers thought--GASP!!!!We are there to draft our own teams, not based on some prexisting ADP list.

Just to be clear, it's not about perception. It's about maximizing value. Regardless of how you value T.Smith. You want him on your team, so would you rather have Harvin and T.Smith or T.Smith and Bowe? That's the difference between drafting him in the 4th and the 5th.And yes, taking T.Smith in the 4th is still a "reach" if you could've gotten him in the 6th even if he finishes WR1. Again, reaching is all about value. You want to get your guys but you want to reach as little as possible. Another way to view it, reaching for Smith in the 4th is the chicken move. You are compromising the rest of your draft because you had an itchy trigger finger and panicked and drafted him well before anyone else would have.

 

[silentcoach]

If you think Tsmith is the number 1 wr, taking him in the 4th is VALUE and in no way are you compromising your draft.

You just crushed the players who took the other wrs before t.smith.

 

[FF Ninja]

FF Ninja, I understand your point of view but you fail to see mine. If ADPS were used in real life NFL drafts as you suggest for fantasy football, then there would be no need for NFL scouts and teams should just use Mel Kiper (analogous to public percetion). You fail to acknowledge that "reaching" can also be value in itself, as mentioned in my post.

I hope my last post cleared that up. I am all about reaching to get the guys I want. But I'm going to use the available data so that I can minimize my reach, thus maximizing the value of my draft picks.And your idea does not translate well. Mel Kiper is just one source, whereas we have some very solid sample sizes to work with from several websites which allow us to get a good idea of drafting patterns. Ignoring such a useful tool is just foolish. Use it to your advantage.

 

[silentcoach]

I see what you are saying. However, I don't think maximizing adps at every slot will lead to the best team, imo. This will just lead to the "best value team." I guess this is where we disagree.