Who would you draft first? (1 Viewer)

[dirtyhalos]

currently drafting in this league.... http://football8.myfantasyleague.com/2006/...=59002&O=17

went

1.10 10. Jake Bachman Addai, Joseph IND RB Mon Feb 12 4:58:30 p.m. PT 2007

1.11 11. Ben Bregitzer Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Mon Feb 12 5:03:52 p.m. PT 2007

1.12 12. Will Grant Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB Mon Feb 12 6:51:13 p.m. PT

 

[King of the Jungle]

Maroney = Stephen Jackson. In a few years, this won't be a discussion.

SJAX is 6'2" and 233lbs.Maroney is 5'11" and 205lbs.I don't get how Maroney=SJAX...unless you are looking purely at how Jackson started behind Faulk and Maroney has started behind Dillon

It is because they have the same haircut. Kinda like every white receiver used to be compared to Ed McCaffrey. Maroney does not equal Stephen Jackson, not even close.

 

[(HULK)]

Addai - all around talent, surrounding cast etc. makes him the obvious top choice - big drop off -MJDMaroneyneither are #1 backs on their team, NE uses their players all differently so you will never be able to count on Maroney ever week, and MJD is a streaky player IMO

Streaky? What exactly are you using to define that? MJD was far LESS "streaky" than Addai last year. Why don't we just cast personal opinions aside and look at the numbers:

WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  dal  |	2	 8  |	 0  |  0 ||  2  pit  |	2	 4  |	 6  |  0 ||  3  ind  |   13   103  |	32  |  1 ||  4  was  |	3	 3  |	53  |  1 ||  5  nyj  |   13	59  |	 0  |  2 ||  7  hou  |	8	10  |	58  |  1 ||  8  phi  |   21	77  |	20  |  0 ||  9  ten  |	8	56  |	29  |  0 || 10  hou  |	3	11  |	56  |  1 || 11  nyg  |	9	45  |	16  |  1 || 12  buf  |	8	78  |	47  |  1 || 13  mia  |	5	46  |	 0  |  1 || 14  ind  |   15   166  |	15  |  2 || 15  ten  |   25	98  |	47  |  1 || 16  nwe  |   19   131  |	41  |  2 || 17  kan  |   12	46  |	16  |  1 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  166   941  |   436  | 15 |

WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  nyg  |	7	26  |	22  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   16	82  |	22  |  1 ||  3  jax  |	3	15  |	13  |  0 ||  4  nyj  |   20	84  |	15  |  1 ||  5  ten  |   13	62  |	15  |  0 ||  7  was  |   11	85  |	20  |  0 ||  8  den  |   17	93  |	37  |  0 ||  9  nwe  |   18	43  |	 0  |  1 || 10  buf  |   13	78  |	46  |  1 || 11  dal  |   13	50  |	 7  |  0 || 12  phi  |   24   171  |	37  |  4 || 13  ten  |   16	56  |	11  |  0 || 14  jax  |   11	22  |	14  |  0 || 15  cin  |	8	50  |	29  |  0 || 16  hou  |   15   100  |	 8  |  0 || 17  mia  |   21	64  |	29  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  226  1081  |   325  |  8

Looking at those stats I would say player #1 was streakier. And you didn't say who was who, and I didn't look it up.

That is a crazy comment.MJD's points per game (1 pt = 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts = TD) *denotes 10 or more carries0019*1117*129*71211171029*19*29*11*Lets break that down a little bit. Ignore the first 2 games because he barely touched the ball. From week 3 to week 13 he was a change of pace back. If Taylor got dinged up, or was cold, MJD got the ball a little more that week. During that timeframe he only had double digit carries 3 times, yet he still averaged 12.5 points per game. Weeks 14 through 17 Taylor was out injured and MJD was the primary ball carrier. As a feature back, he basically exploded, averaging 22 points per game. If you look exclusively at games where MJD had 10 or more carries, he averages 19 points per game. I think this is a good benchmark because even if Taylor is still there next year, I think we can expect that MJD has proven himself valuable enough to get AT LEAST 10 carries a game.Now lets look at Addia. Same scoring. - denotes LESS THAN 10 carries.4-162-15710121017544637-108Addia was in a full share with Rhodes pretty much from the start (maybe not week 3). His numbers are all over the place. He had over 10 carries in 13 games, a luxury MJD had only in 7 games. In games with over 10 carries, Addia averaged 12.5 points (even including the huge 44 point game). Thats right, he averaged the same PPG in games where he had 10 or more carries as MJD averaged as a change of pace back.Ultimately, if you're niave enough to think that MJD will still be Taylor's change of pace back next season, then you probably should draft Addia over him since Rhodes almost certainly will be gone. However, the truth is that MJD will be Jax's lead back next season regardless of Taylor's status... and in that role he averages 19 points per game, something Addia has not shown us. I think its absolutely crystal clear that MJD should be chosen first.And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

 

[jurb26]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

 

[beef]

MJD gets no love, wow. Greg Jones continues to be overrated becuase of one highlight hit on Sean Taylor while at FSU. The guy is not that good people.

 

[switz]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

 

[(HULK)]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

This is weird for me because I generally agree with Switz's thoughts.MJD outperformed Addia in every facet of the game last season. Yards per carry, per reception, touchdowns, etc. He was so much more productive that I feel Addia would have to see nearly twice the ammount of touches as MJD to be a better fantasy player.I can't even comprehend what you're thinking Switz. It just doesn't make sense.

 

[Klecker]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

While it has little if any bearing on what will happen next year, the numbers do show that Addai was "streakier" than MJD in 2006. In standard scoring (1 pt for 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 pts for TDs), Addai's standard deviation was 9.9 points (84% of his average of 11.8) to MJD's 8.2 (58% of his average of 14.2).

 

[jurb26]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

This is weird for me because I generally agree with Switz's thoughts.MJD outperformed Addia in every facet of the game last season. Yards per carry, per reception, touchdowns, etc. He was so much more productive that I feel Addia would have to see nearly twice the ammount of touches as MJD to be a better fantasy player.I can't even comprehend what you're thinking Switz. It just doesn't make sense.

What, picking the actual game by game numbers to disprove YOUR claim of who is the streaky player is basing it around my opinion. What's even funnier is that you actually looked at those numbers (it was clear who was who) and still tried to claim MJD was.

 

[Z-Dog]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

Wow, a guarantee! Can I get a glossy brochure with that?

 

[switz]

And finally, I did a rough calculation of standard deviation by hand. MJD's is slightly less than 2 points, and Addia's is slightly over 2 and a half. So, clearly, Addia is more streaky.

Why let facts get int he way of switz opinion based arguement?

Yeah, you're right Let's just pick the facts that fit our opinion as well, that way we can make whatever statement we want, and prove it.I guarantee Addai will outperform MJD next year, barring Addai getting injured.

While it has little if any bearing on what will happen next year, the numbers do show that Addai was "streakier" than MJD in 2006. In standard scoring (1 pt for 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 pts for TDs), Addai's standard deviation was 9.9 points (84% of his average of 11.8) to MJD's 8.2 (58% of his average of 14.2).

Well considering Addai was pulled in GL situations, and likely won't be this coming year, I disregard TDs as an indicator of success, and look strictly at yardage. Drew scored an unreal amount of TDs, which I don't think will repeat. Just my opinion on that.But yardage wise, MJD was far streakier than Addai, and since we can't compare apples to apples in the TD department, that's all I can go by.I know many disagree, yet the majority in this thread rank MJD lower than Addai it seems.

 

[switz]

WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 dal | 2 8 | 0 | 0 || 2 pit | 2 4 | 6 | 0 || 3 ind | 13 103 | 32 | 1 || 4 was | 3 3 | 53 | 1 || 5 nyj | 13 59 | 0 | 2 || 7 hou | 8 10 | 58 | 1 || 8 phi | 21 77 | 20 | 0 || 9 ten | 8 56 | 29 | 0 || 10 hou | 3 11 | 56 | 1 || 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 || 12 buf | 8 78 | 47 | 1 || 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 || 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 || 15 ten | 25 98 | 47 | 1 || 16 nwe | 19 131 | 41 | 2 || 17 kan | 12 46 | 16 | 1 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 166 941 | 436 | 15 |

WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  nyg  |	7	26  |	22  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   16	82  |	22  |  1 ||  3  jax  |	3	15  |	13  |  0 ||  4  nyj  |   20	84  |	15  |  1 ||  5  ten  |   13	62  |	15  |  0 ||  7  was  |   11	85  |	20  |  0 ||  8  den  |   17	93  |	37  |  0 ||  9  nwe  |   18	43  |	 0  |  1 || 10  buf  |   13	78  |	46  |  1 || 11  dal  |   13	50  |	 7  |  0 || 12  phi  |   24   171  |	37  |  4 || 13  ten  |   16	56  |	11  |  0 || 14  jax  |   11	22  |	14  |  0 || 15  cin  |	8	50  |	29  |  0 || 16  hou  |   15   100  |	 8  |  0 || 17  mia  |   21	64  |	29  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  226  1081  |   325  |  8

For the sake of argument, let's take out TDs. And remember the game Addai was actually used at the GL he scored 4, but that for most of the season Rhodes was the GL guy.

MJD

0

0

13

5

5

6

9

7

6

5

11

4

17

13

17

5

TOTAL 123

AVG 7.7

GAME ABOVE AVG 6

GAME BELOW AVG 10

Granted we could throw out the first rwo games, interestingly, even after the first two games there were 3 more games where MJD saw 5 or fewer carries. I don't know what that means...

Addai

4

10

2

9

7

10

12

4

11

5

20

6

3

7

10

8

TOTAL 128

AVG 8

GAMES BELOW AVG 8

I don't know... the stats don't indicate MJD being much more streaky than Addai. But from watching them, MJD seemed very streaky. I know people have made the same argument against Portis, and even back in the day against Sanders.

And I guess, I would liken Addai to Emmitt, and MJD to Sanders. Both are great backs, show tremendous potential. I'm just wary of MJD, I don't think he's going to put up good numbers week in and out.

I'll give that the statistics don't indicate I'm right, and thus it's just my opinion. Time will tell.

 

[jurb26]

Well considering Addai was pulled in GL situations, and likely won't be this coming year, I disregard TDs as an indicator of success, and look strictly at yardage. Drew scored an unreal amount of TDs, which I don't think will repeat. Just my opinion on that.But yardage wise, MJD was far streakier than Addai, and since we can't compare apples to apples in the TD department, that's all I can go by.I know many disagree, yet the majority in this thread rank MJD lower than Addai it seems.

The problem is, you can't compare apples to apples in the yardage category either. MJD only had 166 carries compared to Addai's 226. MJD only had 212 total touches, Addai had 266. That's a rather large amount of touches to try and make up, no? MJD only had 15+ carries in 4 games last year. Addai had 15+ in 8. MJD saw 10+ in carries in only 7 games. Addai saw 10+ in 13. The bottom line is that even with far fewer opportunities to perform consistently, MJD still was more consistent than Addai last year form a fantasy scoring standpoint. Isn't it fantasy numbers we really care about here anyway? The only reason many feel more comfortable ranking Addai ahead of MJD in redraft is because MJD still has a huge ? in what is going to happen with Taylor. If any news comes out about Taylor not coming back, you can bet that many heads will spin at how fast MJD jumps up and ahead in the rankings.

 

[switz]

The problem is, you can't compare apples to apples in the yardage category either. MJD only had 166 carries compared to Addai's 226. MJD only had 212 total touches, Addai had 266. That's a rather large amount of touches to try and make up, no? MJD only had 15+ carries in 4 games last year. Addai had 15+ in 8. MJD saw 10+ in carries in only 7 games. Addai saw 10+ in 13. The bottom line is that even with far fewer opportunities to perform consistently, MJD still was more consistent than Addai last year form a fantasy scoring standpoint. Isn't it fantasy numbers we really care about here anyway? The only reason many feel more comfortable ranking Addai ahead of MJD in redraft is because MJD still has a huge ? in what is going to happen with Taylor. If any news comes out about Taylor not coming back, you can bet that many heads will spin at how fast MJD jumps up and ahead in the rankings.

Even in YPC though, Addai comes out on top...But I digress. If Taylor is gone, MJD will jump up the rankings, I agree. But I still feel Addai will finish ahead of him next season. I would probably put him ahead of Maroney though.

Isn't it fantasy numbers we really care about here anyway?

At this point, only projecting them

 

[GDogg]

Even in YPC though, Addai comes out on top...

Actually, YPC is the area where Maurice Drew crushes Addai.YPCrew: 5.7Addai: 4.8That's .9 ypc more. To put that in perspective, there are 23 RB's that are within .9 ypc of Addai. There are, including Addai, 7 RB's within .9 of Drew.Drew led all RB's in ypc and the next closest, Frank Gore, was .3 behind Drew.I'd draft Drew ahead of Addai and Maroney. To illustrate how much I like Drew, I currently have both Drew and Maroney, and am deciding whether to keep Drew or Bush. Maroney isn't even a consideration right now.

 

[(HULK)]

I think, unless Taylor leaves, Addia is going to get more carries than MJD.

However, just like last season, I expect MJD to do more with his carries than Addia will.

I do think MJD will see a sharp increase in carries even if Taylor stays. He's earned the feature role.

If Taylor stays, I'll project MJD at about 225 carries, and 45 receptions. Lets say his YPC drops off a bit (wouldn't be suprising), so lets say he rushes for roughly 1170 (5.2 ypc), and maybe 430 receiving (9.5 ypr). So, in my mind he's looking at 1600 combined yards. As for TDs, he can easily still score 16 tds with his touch per td ratio dropping quite a bit. And this scenario is if Taylor stays, which he may not.

Addia should be in the same ballpark. I expect less TDs though. He just doesn't have the same nose for the goalline that MJD does, in my opinion.

Both will be value picks late in the first though.

 

[switz]

Even in YPC though, Addai comes out on top...

Actually, YPC is the area where Maurice Drew crushes Addai.YPCrew: 5.7Addai: 4.8

Break it down game by game.

+----------+-------------+--------+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  YPC+----------+-------------+--------+|  1  dal  |	2	 8  |	 4.0|  2  pit  |	2	 4  |	 2.0|  3  ind  |   13   103  |	7.9|  4  was  |	3	 3  |	1.0|  5  nyj  |   13	59  |	 4.5|  7  hou  |	8	10  |	1.3|  8  phi  |   21	77  |	3.6|  9  ten  |	8	56  |	7.0| 10  hou  |	3	11  |	3.6| 11  nyg  |	9	45  |	5.0| 12  buf  |	8	78  |	9.7| 13  mia  |	5	46  |	 9.2| 14  ind  |   15   166  |	11.0| 15  ten  |   25	98  |	3.9| 16  nwe  |   19   131  |	6.9| 17  kan  |   12	46  |	3.8+----------+-------------+--------|  TOTAL   |  166   941  |   5.3+----------+-------------+--------

7 games under 4.03 games over 9.0Jones-Drew's carries varied alot game by game, but there's no connection between # of carries, and increased YPC. In fact, both games he got 20+ carries he had terrible YPC. However when he had between 15 and 19 carries he had some of his best games.

+----------+-------------+--------| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  YPC+----------+-------------+--------|  1  nyg  |	7	26  |	3.7|  2  hou  |   16	82  |	5.1|  3  jax  |	3	15  |	5.0|  4  nyj  |   20	84  |	4.2|  5  ten  |   13	62  |	4.8|  7  was  |   11	85  |	7.7|  8  den  |   17	93  |	5.5|  9  nwe  |   18	43  |	 2.4| 10  buf  |   13	78  |	6.0| 11  dal  |   13	50  |	 3.8| 12  phi  |   24   171  |	7.1| 13  ten  |   16	56  |	3.5| 14  jax  |   11	22  |	2.0| 15  cin  |	8	50  |	6.2| 16  hou  |   15   100  |	 6.7| 17  mia  |   21	64  |	3.0+----------+-------------+--------|  TOTAL   |  226  1081  |   4.8+----------+-------------+--------

6 games under 4.00 games over 9.0Addai was much more consistent game to game on YPC. The big difference was number of carries for im from game to game. That will change with Rhodes gone. Three games with 20+ carries, only one was so-so.Interesting.Jones-Drew seems like a big-play or no-play RB. Addai is a steady performer.

 

[jurb26]

Even in YPC though, Addai comes out on top...

Actually, YPC is the area where Maurice Drew crushes Addai.YPCrew: 5.7Addai: 4.8

Break it down game by game.

+----------+-------------+--------+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  YPC+----------+-------------+--------+|  1  dal  |	2	 8  |	 4.0|  2  pit  |	2	 4  |	 2.0|  3  ind  |   13   103  |	7.9|  4  was  |	3	 3  |	1.0|  5  nyj  |   13	59  |	 4.5|  7  hou  |	8	10  |	1.3|  8  phi  |   21	77  |	3.6|  9  ten  |	8	56  |	7.0| 10  hou  |	3	11  |	3.6| 11  nyg  |	9	45  |	5.0| 12  buf  |	8	78  |	9.7| 13  mia  |	5	46  |	 9.2| 14  ind  |   15   166  |	11.0| 15  ten  |   25	98  |	3.9| 16  nwe  |   19   131  |	6.9| 17  kan  |   12	46  |	3.8+----------+-------------+--------|  TOTAL   |  166   941  |   5.3+----------+-------------+--------

7 games under 4.03 games over 9.0Jones-Drew's carries varied alot game by game, but there's no connection between # of carries, and increased YPC. In fact, both games he got 20+ carries he had terrible YPC. However when he had between 15 and 19 carries he had some of his best games.

+----------+-------------+--------| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  YPC+----------+-------------+--------|  1  nyg  |	7	26  |	3.7|  2  hou  |   16	82  |	5.1|  3  jax  |	3	15  |	5.0|  4  nyj  |   20	84  |	4.2|  5  ten  |   13	62  |	4.8|  7  was  |   11	85  |	7.7|  8  den  |   17	93  |	5.5|  9  nwe  |   18	43  |	 2.4| 10  buf  |   13	78  |	6.0| 11  dal  |   13	50  |	 3.8| 12  phi  |   24   171  |	7.1| 13  ten  |   16	56  |	3.5| 14  jax  |   11	22  |	2.0| 15  cin  |	8	50  |	6.2| 16  hou  |   15   100  |	 6.7| 17  mia  |   21	64  |	3.0+----------+-------------+--------|  TOTAL   |  226  1081  |   4.8+----------+-------------+--------

6 games under 4.00 games over 9.0Addai was much more consistent game to game on YPC. The big difference was number of carries for im from game to game. That will change with Rhodes gone. Three games with 20+ carries, only one was so-so.Interesting.Jones-Drew seems like a big-play or no-play RB. Addai is a steady performer.

The problem I have with this is that of those 7 games Drew had under a 4.0 YPA. 3 of those games he had 3 carries or less. Do you really think that 3 carrries is enough to gage effectivness running the ball in a single game? I sure don't. Moreoever, MJD made up for the "poor" performance running the ball in 2 of those games by going over 50 yds rec and scoring a TD in each.The bottom line is that MJD was in single digit carries 9 times last year. Addai only 3. MJD had 5 carries or less 5 times last year. Addai, only once. It only statnds to reason that MJD would have a harder time posting consistant yardage or YPA numbers given that. Even with dramatically more incosistant touches week to week, MJD was more consistant at putting up fantasy points. If his touches become more regular, I would have to assume that could only help his cause.

 

[switz]

The problem I have with this is that of those 7 games Drew had under a 4.0 YPA. 3 of those games he had 3 carries or less. Do you really think that 3 carrries is enough to gage effectivness running the ball in a single game? I sure don't. Moreoever, MJD made up for the "poor" performance running the ball in 2 of those games by going over 50 yds rec and scoring a TD in each.

I actually agree with you. My problem is that despite showing he could be successful, there were many games where the team didn't use him much. Why? And why is it when they needed him to shoulder a large game (20+) he wasn't as explosive. What does that indicate if he has the fetured role? Is he going to wear down? Not be as successful?

The bottom line is that MJD was in single digit carries 9 times last year. Addai only 3. MJD had 5 carries or less 5 times last year. Addai, only once. It only statnds to reason that MJD would have a harder time posting consistant yardage or YPA numbers given that. Even with dramatically more incosistant touches week to week, MJD was more consistant at putting up fantasy points. If his touches become more regular, I would have to assume that could only help his cause.

And yet, on the other hand, Addai was fairly consistent with his carries, no matter how many, or how few he received. Hence, given the full gig, it seems his success is easier to predict.That doesn't mean MJD won't be more successful (though I don't think he would be.) It just means Addai is the safer pick.

 

[Warpig]

Maroney = Stephen Jackson. In a few years, this won't be a discussion.

SJAX is 6'2" and 233lbs.Maroney is 5'11" and 205lbs. I don't get how Maroney=SJAX...unless you are looking purely at how Jackson started behind Faulk and Maroney has started behind Dillon

According to NFL.com, they have Maroney listed at 5'11 220 lbs. Even in college he was 217 lbs. If you look at him he looks solid. He's no 205. When I've watched him play he reminds me of SJax. He has all the tools you'd want. Blazing speed, good hands, agility, runs hard...he's just a playmaker. Quit player hatin'.

 

[GDogg]

Even in YPC though, Addai comes out on top...

Actually, YPC is the area where Maurice Drew crushes Addai.YPC:

Drew: 5.7

Addai: 4.8

Break it down game by game.
+----------+-------------+--------+| WK OPP | RSH YD | YPC+----------+-------------+--------+| 1 dal | 2 8 | 4.0| 2 pit | 2 4 | 2.0| 3 ind | 13 103 | 7.9| 4 was | 3 3 | 1.0| 5 nyj | 13 59 | 4.5| 7 hou | 8 10 | 1.3| 8 phi | 21 77 | 3.6| 9 ten | 8 56 | 7.0| 10 hou | 3 11 | 3.6| 11 nyg | 9 45 | 5.0| 12 buf | 8 78 | 9.7| 13 mia | 5 46 | 9.2| 14 ind | 15 166 | 11.0| 15 ten | 25 98 | 3.9| 16 nwe | 19 131 | 6.9| 17 kan | 12 46 | 3.8+----------+-------------+--------| TOTAL | 166 941 | 5.3+----------+-------------+--------7 games under 4.03 games over 9.0

Jones-Drew's carries varied alot game by game, but there's no connection between # of carries, and increased YPC. In fact, both games he got 20+ carries he had terrible YPC. However when he had between 15 and 19 carries he had some of his best games.

+----------+-------------+--------| WK OPP | RSH YD | YPC+----------+-------------+--------| 1 nyg | 7 26 | 3.7| 2 hou | 16 82 | 5.1| 3 jax | 3 15 | 5.0| 4 nyj | 20 84 | 4.2| 5 ten | 13 62 | 4.8| 7 was | 11 85 | 7.7| 8 den | 17 93 | 5.5| 9 nwe | 18 43 | 2.4| 10 buf | 13 78 | 6.0| 11 dal | 13 50 | 3.8| 12 phi | 24 171 | 7.1| 13 ten | 16 56 | 3.5| 14 jax | 11 22 | 2.0| 15 cin | 8 50 | 6.2| 16 hou | 15 100 | 6.7| 17 mia | 21 64 | 3.0+----------+-------------+--------| TOTAL | 226 1081 | 4.8+----------+-------------+--------6 games under 4.00 games over 9.0

Addai was much more consistent game to game on YPC. The big difference was number of carries for im from game to game. That will change with Rhodes gone. Three games with 20+ carries, only one was so-so.

Interesting.

Jones-Drew seems like a big-play or no-play RB. Addai is a steady performer.

Where did you get these numbers? They look correct, but Drew's overall YPC is not 5.3. It's 5.7. You can break everything down all you want, but over the course of the entire season, Drew averaged almost 1 yard per carry more than Addai. That's huge.

In some of the games where Drew got minimal carries, Jax had gone to the pass.

In any case, Addai may have been much more "consistent" game to game, but he wasn't consistently better game to game. Drew had one more game than Addai where he rushed for under 4.0. As was pointed out, though, in three of those, Drew got 3 or fewer carries. However, Drew balanced that out by doing damage through the passing game.

They are both very good backs, but I'll take the more explosive and consistent fantasy scorer (which is what we're playing) in Drew.

 

[Tenderknee]

How do you guys feel about it now that Dillon is going to retire/be released?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

He has to be worth a touch more then Addai now.

Both top 8.

 

[Team Legacy]

What a rookie crop of running backs. Bush, Drew, Addai and Maroney. Fantastic first seasons. Throw in DeAngelo and Norwood and this was by far the BEST rookie RB crop we've EVER seen.

Who is the most likely to fall off?

I'd guess Maroney due to injury, but could imagine a scenario seeing every one of them in the top 25.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Dont forget Drew got to play Indy twice lol. Take those games out and figure out his ave. Even Dayne looked like a hero against Indys D. 270yrds and 9.7 ave vs Indy, thats over a quarter of his stats alone. Still, I think hes a great talent, not sure how he will do being an every down back.

 

[nygiants56]

Nice post Couch Potato, one thought on Drew he is 2 days younger than A.Perterson... and has legs like Barry Sanders. IMO Drew in a dynasty or redraft will be very valuable

oh no, not the Barry Sanders reference! last time I heard that, people were talking about Q-Tip Griffin, and how much he looked like Barry Sanders. Even John Madden jumped into the fray running his mouth about the Sanders-like running style of Griffin. of course, I drafted Griffin, and of course, I got burned. haha.I cringe every time I hear a Barry Sanders reference on any RB. MJD is a big dude ( for a little guy)who runs low to the ground and is explosive..he's going to make a terrific starting RB, if not in 2007, certainly in 2008 and beyond.

 

[Tau837]

Interesting thread. Long way to go before redraft season, but this thread made me think I might consider trading down out of the first if my pick isn't high enough, say my 1st & 5th for another team's 2nd & 3rd... then try to nab two of these guys along with two quality WRs in the 2nd & 3rd. It could be challenging to find a buyer, but worth exploring. I did this once in the past, and it worked out well.

As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:

1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)

2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)

4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)

First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.

Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:

13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs

3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffs

Could this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.

ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO. Also, someone pointed out the MJD got to play Indy twice (with over 300 total yards and 3 TDs)... and I thought I'd point out that Maroney also got to play them once (13/63/0 rushing, not a big deal), while of course Addai didn't. So for purposes of this comparison, that might be a very small consideration.

By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

 

[LBH]

Addai

Jones-Drew

Maroney

 

[Routilla]

I would take either Addai or Drew before Maroney. Tough call as to who would be first but I'd probably take Addai since Rhodes is gone. But MJD is a TD machine. Tough call indeed.

 

[zamboni]

I would take either Addai or Drew before Maroney. Tough call as to who would be first but I'd probably take Addai since Rhodes is gone. But MJD is a TD machine. Tough call indeed.

I could see Addai first, but I'd take Maroney over MJD.While MJD was a TD machine last year, TDs can be unpredictable. I'd rather go with the guy who's going to touch the ball more, and right now that looks like Maroney by a fair amount.