Seymour Corn
it=info
Who's going to win?
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Who's going to win? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Seymour Corn
- Start date
ffchamp1
Footballguy
As much as it pains me to say it, the Colts will be a very quick exit this year.Tom
The Jacket
Footballguy
Colts.
LJ will run all over them, but the Colts can still light it up, too.
The deciding factor will more than likely be Trent Green, otherwise known as TrINT Green. Plus the Chiefs offensive line is downright terrible, expect Indy to rack up at least 4 sacks.
LJ will run all over them, but the Colts can still light it up, too.
The deciding factor will more than likely be Trent Green, otherwise known as TrINT Green. Plus the Chiefs offensive line is downright terrible, expect Indy to rack up at least 4 sacks.
Banger
Footballguy
The Colts will lose but it won't be Mannings fault. LJ will get 35 carries and they will run, run, run all day and Indy won't be able to stop them. They are beyond horrible and the playoffs aren't going to cure one of the worst rush defenses I've ever seen.
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djcolts
Footballguy
Jax would have been a worse matchup than KC for the Colts. I don't need to elaborate as to why.
jurb26
Footballguy
True, I should have said of the teams that actually made the playoffs.
djcolts
Footballguy
IMO, of the AFC playoff teams - from worst matchup to best matchup for the Colts:1. @SD (duh)(gap)2. NE3. @Balt4. KC(gap) 5. JetsColts are a better team at home than on the road this season - and horrible on grass. I don't need to explain SD. NE has a revenge factor and the Colts have playoff demons against them. @Balt is awful as much because of the Colts' overall history as much as the players and coaches (with the players and coaches alone, they'd be #4 on this list). KC is not a good matchup, but the Colts are at home, and Johnson is more of a power back, which the Colts are slightly less bad at stopping than quick backs. Plus the Colts are 8-0 at home with the Chiefs 3-5 on the road. Jets would clearly be #5 on this list.
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Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
FWIW, even if they made it to the postseason, I don't think the Jags would have beaten the Colts again this year.
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
If the KC D shows up and is able to contain the Indy aerial assualt, there's no question Kansas City can beat the Colts running LJ about 35-40 times.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Is everyone forgetting how crappy the Chiefs are on the road?
Yes, Indy is ripe for the picking, and LJ will likely gash them for a lot of yards, but I still think the Colts win this game, and by at least 10 points.
Yes, Indy is ripe for the picking, and LJ will likely gash them for a lot of yards, but I still think the Colts win this game, and by at least 10 points.
Yeah how did Denver do on those 2 trips up to Indy. They got smoked, by mid 1st quarter.Herm isn't a very good coach. Green has been garbage.They suck on the road.LJ pretty much needs to control the game, rush for 200+ yards, and score 2-3 tds. If Indy slows down LJ at all, they're going to lose by 14+. Green has just looked very timid. Making bad throws. Lots of turnovers. KC needs a JAX type of explosion in the 1st half. 200+ yards of rushing, a few long TDs, just blow the game open early. If LJ/Bennett don't get 300+ yards rushing, I don't really see how KC stays close. D is suspect, Green is busted, and KC plays like ### on the road.To pick KC you really have to think Indy is going to give up 250-300 yards rushing. I just don't see that in a home playoff game.
jonessed
Footballguy
KC is awful on the road, especially their defense. A couple of Green picks and this game gets ugly fast.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
This should be a fun game to watch. Definitely looking forward to it.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Since coming to KC, Green's passing numbers are pretty close comparing his performance at home and on the road . . .
HOME:
18.5 completions, 231.4 passing yards, 63.5% completion, 1.31 TD, 0.80 INT per game
ROAD:
20.6 completions, 256.9 passing yards, 60.6% completion, 1.37 TD, 1.13 INT per game
HOME:
18.5 completions, 231.4 passing yards, 63.5% completion, 1.31 TD, 0.80 INT per game
ROAD:
20.6 completions, 256.9 passing yards, 60.6% completion, 1.37 TD, 1.13 INT per game
EdwardCat
Footballguy
LJ will explode just like Rudi Johnson did when everyone expected him to approach the rushing record. LJ will get in the range of 120 yards and 2 TDs. He won't put up the monster the #s you expect, though.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
IND has allowed some pretty horrendous rushing totals this year including:
NYG 186
JAX 191
TEN 214
DEN 227
TEN 219
JAX 375
HOU 191
However, must of those teams split the workload among several people, not just one RB. It will be interesting to see if the Colts can key on Johnson and if Johnson can handle 40 carries after already hauling the ball 400+ times this year.
NYG 186
JAX 191
TEN 214
DEN 227
TEN 219
JAX 375
HOU 191
However, must of those teams split the workload among several people, not just one RB. It will be interesting to see if the Colts can key on Johnson and if Johnson can handle 40 carries after already hauling the ball 400+ times this year.
jurb26
Footballguy
Unlike Cinci, KC has no inhabitions what so ever of riding their horse (LJ) into the ground..... hence the NFL record carries this year. If Indy does not find a way to stop him, it will be a long day for that D and a short one for Manning and the O.Rudi had 22 carries vs Indy. LJ averages 26 per game over the year.
EdwardCat
Footballguy
Doubtful. Things like this rarely occur when you expect them to happen. Look what happened with LT the last two weeks.
The Jacket
Footballguy
The key number for KC is 30.
Johnson has carried the ball 30 or more times 6 times this season.
The Chiefs were 6-0 in those games.
Johnson has carried the ball 30 or more times 6 times this season.
The Chiefs were 6-0 in those games.
sinatravolta
Footballguy
Indy at home this year: 8-0.
Chiefs on the road this year: 3-5.
Everyone's hating on the Colts, and sure, they could lose, but odds are strongly in their favor of winning this game.
Chiefs on the road this year: 3-5.
Everyone's hating on the Colts, and sure, they could lose, but odds are strongly in their favor of winning this game.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Going 0-4 in their last 4 road games does not bode well for their chances of advancing to the AFC title game.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Let's review ...
Against bottom feeding Rushing Defenses, LJ has the following averages per game:
31.2 Rushes
145.2 Rushing Yards
4.7 Yards Per Carry
1.2 Rushing TD's
0.8 Receptions
10.4 Receiving Yards
13.0 Yards per Reception
0.2 Receiving TD's
Against the Top 10 Rushing Defenses, LJ has the following averages per game:
22.7 Rushes
95.8 Rushing Yards
4.2 Yards Per Carry
1.2 Rushing TD's
2.7 Receptions
14.0 Receiving Yards
5.3 Yards per Reception
0.0 Receiving TD's
Indy has the worst Rushing Defense in the NFL, so although it is not absolutely certain, we should expect to see a performance more like the top set of numbers instead of the bottom out of LJ this weekend.
That being said, Priest Holmes had over 200 total yards and 2 TD's against Indy in 2003, and Indy still beat them 38-31. In '03 the Chiefs literally had NO DEFENSE. This year the Chiefs are not among the bottom feeders of Defenses; they are among the middle ... I see this as a good thing for them, and they will force Indy to punt at least twice. The veteran secondary will be able to force Peyton into a few scenarios he does not like ...
The Chiefs will win this one by a Field Goal. LJ and Co. will hold onto the ball in the 2nd Half with a 2-to-1 margin with respect to time-of-possession, and this will be the Achilles Heel for Indy as their Defense will be useless in the 4th Q.
Against bottom feeding Rushing Defenses, LJ has the following averages per game:
31.2 Rushes
145.2 Rushing Yards
4.7 Yards Per Carry
1.2 Rushing TD's
0.8 Receptions
10.4 Receiving Yards
13.0 Yards per Reception
0.2 Receiving TD's
Against the Top 10 Rushing Defenses, LJ has the following averages per game:
22.7 Rushes
95.8 Rushing Yards
4.2 Yards Per Carry
1.2 Rushing TD's
2.7 Receptions
14.0 Receiving Yards
5.3 Yards per Reception
0.0 Receiving TD's
Indy has the worst Rushing Defense in the NFL, so although it is not absolutely certain, we should expect to see a performance more like the top set of numbers instead of the bottom out of LJ this weekend.
That being said, Priest Holmes had over 200 total yards and 2 TD's against Indy in 2003, and Indy still beat them 38-31. In '03 the Chiefs literally had NO DEFENSE. This year the Chiefs are not among the bottom feeders of Defenses; they are among the middle ... I see this as a good thing for them, and they will force Indy to punt at least twice. The veteran secondary will be able to force Peyton into a few scenarios he does not like ...
The Chiefs will win this one by a Field Goal. LJ and Co. will hold onto the ball in the 2nd Half with a 2-to-1 margin with respect to time-of-possession, and this will be the Achilles Heel for Indy as their Defense will be useless in the 4th Q.
Colts D allows 5.4 yards per carry an utterly terrible number
Chiefs D allows 4.17 yards per carry an average number
The Colts will be able to rush the football, and that will be the deciding factor because each of these defenses run the Cover 2 in a true form,
I would think Manning is far more capable of ripping it apart than Green in the passing game. And the running games will not have as big a disparity as you would think.
Chiefs D allows 4.17 yards per carry an average number
The Colts will be able to rush the football, and that will be the deciding factor because each of these defenses run the Cover 2 in a true form,
I would think Manning is far more capable of ripping it apart than Green in the passing game. And the running games will not have as big a disparity as you would think.
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Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
... and he'll be the first to say so. Actually, I am taking the Colts at home.
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WampusCat43
Footballguy
Agreed. Colts at home. KC still hasn't figured out how it got into the playoffs in the first place.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Sure they have.Of the four contending teams, all of whom were playing at home as favorites, they were the only ones to win. The other three -- Cincy, Denver and Tennessee -- all held tiebreakers or win advantages over them, and all choked.They "got help", but unlike the other teams, they actually helped themselves.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
I sort of agree. I think passing or running the Colts have to score early and often which would do 2 things for them - 1)reduce LJ's rushing touches because they'd have to play catch up and 2)thus force Green to throw often. Green has looked horrible since returning. If Manning tries to play TOP/clock control he'll be working right into KC's hands.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Green certainly has not looked like Drew Brees the last 4 weeks, but please ...
He faced some of the NFL's Top Defenses in the last 4 weeks.
Week 14 - Baltimore Ravens [#01, #01]
Week 15 - San Diego Chargers [#10, #07]
Week 16 - Oakland Raiders [#03, #18]
Week 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars [#02, #04]
The 1st Ranking is for Yards Allowed, the 2nd Ranking is for Points Allowed.
Even if you throw out the Oakland game, that means that they have played 3 of the Top 10 Defenses during their final stretch.
Indy is nowhere close to these Defenses. Indy is #21 for Yards Allowed, and #23 for Points Allowed.
Trent Green and Co. will not have any problem with the Indy Defense.
The only question will be whether Herm and the Boys can game-plan and sufficiently confuse Peyton so that Indy is forced to punt 2 or 3 times. I believe they will succeed at this and this ultimately will allow Kansas City to win the game because the Indy Defense will die in the 4 Quarter allowing LJ to run out the clock with Peyton watching from the sideline.
He faced some of the NFL's Top Defenses in the last 4 weeks.
Week 14 - Baltimore Ravens [#01, #01]
Week 15 - San Diego Chargers [#10, #07]
Week 16 - Oakland Raiders [#03, #18]
Week 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars [#02, #04]
The 1st Ranking is for Yards Allowed, the 2nd Ranking is for Points Allowed.
Even if you throw out the Oakland game, that means that they have played 3 of the Top 10 Defenses during their final stretch.
Indy is nowhere close to these Defenses. Indy is #21 for Yards Allowed, and #23 for Points Allowed.
Trent Green and Co. will not have any problem with the Indy Defense.
The only question will be whether Herm and the Boys can game-plan and sufficiently confuse Peyton so that Indy is forced to punt 2 or 3 times. I believe they will succeed at this and this ultimately will allow Kansas City to win the game because the Indy Defense will die in the 4 Quarter allowing LJ to run out the clock with Peyton watching from the sideline.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I voted Indy, but LJ may very well break the playoff rushing record this weekend.
CalBear
Footballguy
Eric Dickerson, 248 yards and 2 TDs against Dallas in 1985 on 34 carries.Incidentally, that was Tony Dorsett's last playoff game, and the end of Dallas' first run as a top team. They would not return to the playoffs until 1991, with a completely different (but now familiar) cast of characters.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
Indy will win this game, and.... AND will become the "hot" team of the 12 playoff teams starting with this game, and even get by SD. The defense will become semi-respectable, and the offense will take care of the rest. Addai/Rhodes in one game, Peyton in the other two.Take it to the ba'nk.My current "hot index" (think Steelers last year), as too many times it's not about the better team, but whom as the best inertia going in...1. Philly - they may get by NYG, but this team will run out of steam, hard.2. San Diego - destiny keeps them hot (reminds of Indy of recent)3. New England - week 17 speaks for itself4. New York Jets - easy schedule to get in, but confidence has been building5. New Orleans - little bit of fall off, but could easily drop 6. Baltimore - mid-pack, can never figure out which Raven team will show up, nor do they7. Indy - looks to turn on the "playoff" mode, despite questionable regular season. Different than recent years, could be good for them.8. Kansas City - no matter what Herm sez, they backed into the playoffs, pretty much... but are excited enough to be in.9. Chicago - defensive question marks, injury, Grossman ability to create 3 turnovers in one half...10. Seattle - Holmgren still can't get this team fixed. Noone from the NFC West deserved to make it this year, and the Hawks know it.11. New York Giants - they still have Eli, and had to overcome a mediocre-at-best Skins team with a rook QB.12. Dallas - thing is... they've already hit bottom, but have no where to go but up.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I agree.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
If the Colts get by the Chiefs. I give them a real shot to beat the Ravens. With run defense being their achilles heal, I don't think the Ravens have an explosive rushing attack. Their defense is great, but I think P. Manning can pass against most defenses consistently.I'd think it to be a low scoring game, like 17-14. I can't help but think back to last season when the Ravense were favored at home in week #1 and the Colts got them then.We'll see.Marc Levin said:
And that has what to do with this poll??? Did I read the wrong question?
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Didnt the Texans beat Indy like 2 weeks ago?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Nothing. But should they get by KC the Colts on the road lately have not done very well.
Warpig
Footballguy
Indy is awful on defense...painful to watch. Ron Dayne with 150+ rushing yards and 2 TD's?!?!? Inexcusable! I wouldn't be surprised if LJ goes for 200 and 2. However, if Freeney can get to Green a couple times on passing situations that may be all it takes. Especially if Manning can get a couple of quick strikes for TD's early on. Hopefully the home crowd will show up.As far as Baltimore, I agree with the poster earlier that said Manning can pretty much pass the ball on anyone. Wasn't Denver in the top 3 as far as passing defense and Manning made them look like girl scouts! He was hitting his underneath routes to loosen them up and then he'd go over the top for the TD. He's got such a quick release too. I think Manning will have to put this team on his back and carry them single handedly since the defense isn't contributing.I need Manning and Freeney to have big days. That said, they'll probably stink it up.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
My take on Indy is that if they get up early, forget about it. They have a very good pass D, and Sanders will back, he's a difference maker. What I didn't understand during the last month or so of the season is why they didn't go for the throat early. Maybe it's simply not there through the air, but they have seemed to force the run early then played catch up with the pass later in the game.
Getting Dallas Clark back should help fill the void left by Stokely. Anybody know what is up with Prohel? I thought he'd be a good fit with this team in that role.
Getting Dallas Clark back should help fill the void left by Stokely. Anybody know what is up with Prohel? I thought he'd be a good fit with this team in that role.
bigupsetter
Footballguy
SEE THIS ONE COMING A MILE AWAY, EVERYONE AND THEIR MAMA IS GOING TO FOCUS ON INDY RUN DEF V. KV RUN OFFENSE AND HOW BAD INDY IS. BET THIS THE GAME THEY SHUT DOWN THE RUN, THEN LOSE NEXT WEEK.
LOL
LOL
The_Man
Footballguy
I agree with the folks above who pointed out how tough Indy has been at home this year and how mediocre KC has been on the road. I think two of their three road wins were vs. AZ and Oak.
Indy is built to play on the fast track of their dome. Another factor -- in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack index (which computes the percentage of pass attempts that result in sacks), Indy has the #2 pass blocking O line and KC has the #28 sack defense.
Manning should have all day back there to pick apart KC's defense. Football Outsiders also points out that while KC is pretty good vs. opponents' #1 WRs, they are very bad vs. WR2 and 3, while Manning is the best at going through his progressions.
KC will have to score virtually ever time to stay in the game. As good as LJ is, KC's offense is not built to be a scoring machine. The first time they don't score on a drive, they're suddenly going to be 7 or 10 or 13 points behind, and then the game will get out of hand.
If Indy wins, they automatically play at Baltimore, regardless of the other game.
Indy is built to play on the fast track of their dome. Another factor -- in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack index (which computes the percentage of pass attempts that result in sacks), Indy has the #2 pass blocking O line and KC has the #28 sack defense.
Manning should have all day back there to pick apart KC's defense. Football Outsiders also points out that while KC is pretty good vs. opponents' #1 WRs, they are very bad vs. WR2 and 3, while Manning is the best at going through his progressions.
KC will have to score virtually ever time to stay in the game. As good as LJ is, KC's offense is not built to be a scoring machine. The first time they don't score on a drive, they're suddenly going to be 7 or 10 or 13 points behind, and then the game will get out of hand.
If Indy wins, they automatically play at Baltimore, regardless of the other game.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Is that what happened in the Texans game?
