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Who's the 1.1 next year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
sbonomo
Footballguy
Cannot go wrong with ADP. He should be in his prime for the next 3-5 years along with the fact that he has produced YOY which makes him the clear #1 in redraft or dynasty IMO. Arian has had a nice year, Hillis has dazzled at times, MJD bad situation. Honestly barring injury he is a solid as it gets.
flc735
Footballguy
i don't think anyone will be the 1.1 in over 50% of the leagues
AP has years and years of top production so he should be the most common 1.1
the cj2k's bounce back year could gain a lot of popularity over the off season. maybe tenn drafts a qb, or a top o-lineman in the first round to spark the talks
people always like the past years top scorer in foster. tates return may hurt his stock a little
and...who is the #1 overall scorer so far? VICK! we know there will be a few guys that prorate his 2010 stats over a full 16 games, seeing how much he would have scored and take him at 1.1. especially if he has another washington type game this year
none of these guys are old or super young so i don't expect much variation in redraft vs dynasty. maybe vick drops a little in dynasty
my guess is
AP 40%
cj2k 30%
foster 25%
vick 15%
2011 is looking like a great year to have the 1.12 pick though
AP has years and years of top production so he should be the most common 1.1
the cj2k's bounce back year could gain a lot of popularity over the off season. maybe tenn drafts a qb, or a top o-lineman in the first round to spark the talks
people always like the past years top scorer in foster. tates return may hurt his stock a little
and...who is the #1 overall scorer so far? VICK! we know there will be a few guys that prorate his 2010 stats over a full 16 games, seeing how much he would have scored and take him at 1.1. especially if he has another washington type game this year
none of these guys are old or super young so i don't expect much variation in redraft vs dynasty. maybe vick drops a little in dynasty
my guess is
AP 40%
cj2k 30%
foster 25%
vick 15%
2011 is looking like a great year to have the 1.12 pick though
WiDDoW_MaKeR
Footballguy
If Thomas Jones is gone... Jamaal Charles will be my first pick.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Foster.
The Dynasty
Footballguy
No one because of the lockout.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Interesting and while I never think the ADP would dictate his being #1 (regardless of what happens in the offseason, given that they actually play), he could be a #1 overall producer. Even if Jones stays (and I don't see why he wouldn't), as a Jets fan, I saw what happened in the playoofs when he was rideen too hard. One more year (albiet at a timeshare) will take even more off of him, so I can see the wheels coming off in 2011. Probably, the best thing for Charles would be if Jones stayed in KC...negates the team having to find a young replacement.
pidgeonmanza
Footballguy
in ppr dynasty I think it should be megatron, and in ppr redraft I think it's ap
phillyphan07
Footballguy
Maurice Clarett.... because of the lockout and replacement players :(
gianmarco
Footballguy
You know, I seriously considered putting him there for the same reason but I figured I'd be in the minority so I didn't bother. That guy is flat out awesome.
Shutout
Footballguy
I'm really having a hard time understanding how a 23 year old RB that is leading the league in yards/tds/catches for a RB/ and has a gaudy YPC average only has the support of about 1 in every 4 people voting. I think there are a lot of fine candidates and all but this tells me that people REALLY put a premium on name recognition and its a bit puzzling why the facts are being ignored.
If AP or MJD or CJ was having this type of year, its likely this poll would not even exist because it would be a slam dunk.
I wouldn't knock anyone for taking ANY of the guys on the list at the top next year but my choice would be Foster. Like the guys before him that proved it one year and then got slected high the next year, he has shown to be a very valuable FF option.
If AP or MJD or CJ was having this type of year, its likely this poll would not even exist because it would be a slam dunk.
I wouldn't knock anyone for taking ANY of the guys on the list at the top next year but my choice would be Foster. Like the guys before him that proved it one year and then got slected high the next year, he has shown to be a very valuable FF option.
thehornet
Footballguy
people like to see consistency outside of 1 year. He is still gonna go top 3-5 in every draft.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
I think people like consistency.same reason why Hillis is not even mentioned in this thread.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
10% too much
Either ADP or Calvin in dynasty for me. Choosing between the two would probably depend on who I thought would be there at the turn.
Then again, I don't like doing initial snake drafts for dynasty anymore. Imagine having both of those guys to start out? Would take a lot of your bankroll, but it's doable.
Then again, I don't like doing initial snake drafts for dynasty anymore. Imagine having both of those guys to start out? Would take a lot of your bankroll, but it's doable.
doowain
Footballguy
I voted MJD. Can't really go wrong with any of CJ3, MJD, or Peterson. Personal preference. I ask myself, would I trade MJD for Peterson? I don't think I would. Would I trade Peterson for MJD? I also don't think I would. I don't think we'll see a consensus 1.01 this year, for the first time in a while.
I can't rank Foster that high. He's more Steve Slaton than you may realize. I'd probably take him Top 5 in redraft at this point (that could change in the offseason), but in dynasty, there is no chance I'd touch him that high. While he has most definitely been impressive, there is far too much risk involved. Slaton disappeared and this year even Derrick Ward has looked like a top tier player at times running in that offense. Some may compare his situation to Priest Holmes (undrafted player playing in a perfect offense for his abilities). That may be a fair evaluation to a point, but look how that turned out. He had 2-3 fantasy relevant seasons. Regardless of Holmes' career ending injury, the writing was on the wall. LJ was gonna take over. And that's what I'd be afraid of in Houston. They drafted a RB (Tate) this year, knowing a good deal about what they had in Foster. Is Tate Foster's LJ? Way too much uncertainty for me to consider with a Top 4 pick, let alone spending my first rounder on in dynasty.
Note: I'm really surprised at the small number of votes for MJD. He has been lights out recently and there is a great chance he ends the year as RB2. His upcoming schedule is going to be fun.
I can't rank Foster that high. He's more Steve Slaton than you may realize. I'd probably take him Top 5 in redraft at this point (that could change in the offseason), but in dynasty, there is no chance I'd touch him that high. While he has most definitely been impressive, there is far too much risk involved. Slaton disappeared and this year even Derrick Ward has looked like a top tier player at times running in that offense. Some may compare his situation to Priest Holmes (undrafted player playing in a perfect offense for his abilities). That may be a fair evaluation to a point, but look how that turned out. He had 2-3 fantasy relevant seasons. Regardless of Holmes' career ending injury, the writing was on the wall. LJ was gonna take over. And that's what I'd be afraid of in Houston. They drafted a RB (Tate) this year, knowing a good deal about what they had in Foster. Is Tate Foster's LJ? Way too much uncertainty for me to consider with a Top 4 pick, let alone spending my first rounder on in dynasty.
Note: I'm really surprised at the small number of votes for MJD. He has been lights out recently and there is a great chance he ends the year as RB2. His upcoming schedule is going to be fun.
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I think if you look at it from the standpoint of which of the projected top RBs next year plays the biggest role on his team, you can get a feel of how important they are to their team and the faith their team has in giving them the rock. Foster and Hillis are more of the "go-to" type players than anybody in the league by a substantial margin in terms of yards. Note the PPG stats factor in team defensive points so its not entirely accurate. Still, its clear how much Chris Johnson has fallen off from the "go-to" guy player he was a year earlier. I will be taking Foster 1st overall no questions asked. He has been absolutely dominant this year and there is little reason to doubt he will be just as dominant next year.
Foster (Player yds / Team yds) 1709 / 4476 = 38.2%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 6.9/24 = 28.8%
Hillis (Player yds / Team yds) 1398 / 3665, = 38.1%,
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 6/19.1 = 31.4%
ADP (Player yds / Team yds) 1145 / 3499 = 32.7%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 5.5/18.9 = 29.1%
CJ2K (Player yds / Team yds) 1455 / 4054 = 28.8%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 4.2/21.9 = 20%
Foster (Player yds / Team yds) 1709 / 4476 = 38.2%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 6.9/24 = 28.8%
Hillis (Player yds / Team yds) 1398 / 3665, = 38.1%,
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 6/19.1 = 31.4%
ADP (Player yds / Team yds) 1145 / 3499 = 32.7%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 5.5/18.9 = 29.1%
CJ2K (Player yds / Team yds) 1455 / 4054 = 28.8%
(Player PPG / Team PPG) 4.2/21.9 = 20%
doowain
Footballguy
"Little reason to doubt"? Really? Do you remember Steve Slaton? Bet on the elite talent. Foster is not that.And, MJD sits at 36.9%.
Shutout
Footballguy
Steve Slaton isn't Arian Foster. The poster's point is valid. If you watch a lot of the games, its VERY apparent that Foster and Hillis are what everything on those teams begins and ends with. They seemingly are viable targets on every play. I think the poster makes a really good point. Sometimes you just have to go with what is really going on. I can understand holding a reservation if you see a comparable guy that has done it more than once and has more track record, but I can't see at all wanting to downgrade a guy based on what the guy before him failed to do. I don't know what qualifies as "elite talent" but I DO know that opportunity and situaiton MUST be relevant factors into the situation and I like the Texans offensive situation (and poor defensive situation) for Fantasy considerations, for sure. Right now, Arian Foster reminds me a lot of Priest Holmes, Terrell Davis, Brian Westbrook in their primes. He is the cog that makes that team go and I like my first pick being that important and having that much involvement. You know, talent is great but you REALLY have to consider those other factors. Some people Might argue that Shonn Greene or Ryan Matthews would be a major factor in FF if they had the opportunity/situation that Foster does. In fact, I guess they already did argue that point based on how high those guys were drafted. But Foster has taken that situation and excelled. Plus, its not like he's a slouch. Again, I don't knwo what constitutes elite talent in your opinion but I do know that when you lead the NFL in yards, TDs, catches at the position, and are in the top 3 in yards per carry, you obviously are as good or better than most.
doowain
Footballguy
You aren't getting it. It's not that Steve Slaton didn't do anything prior to Foster getting there. It's that HE DID....and then disappeared. It's a very fantasy friendly offense for RBs. My observation about Derrick Ward stands. He's performed very well in that offense this year (6.1 ypc on nearly 40 carries with 3 TDs) and he was a disaster last year on the Bucs.
oukurt
Footballguy
very edgy
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
ADP. He's the safest bet to be a stud.
You obviously have no idea what you are talking about, nor have you watched many Texans games this year. Foster is a bigger, more powerful, tougher, smarter, better receiver than Slaton by a longshot. In your mind, 'elite talent' = name recognition, not actual talent. Watch the guy play - he does everything right, and fights harder for extra yards than anybody in the league with the exception of maybe ADP and Hillis. Yes, MJD can be thrown in the mix at 36.9%, he is a warrior no doubt and a big part of his team.
Because consistency has value, especially in the first few rounds. Recovering from bad early round picks can be pretty tough (unless you happen to hit on a Foster type break out of course). AP has been very good to elite every single year. The same could be said for MJD, assuming he continues his resurgence. When talking about Foster's break out everyone always said how he was a perfect fit for the scheme and it would allow him to be productive regardless, etc. Well, Foster has obviously earned respect above and beyond that. He should be a top 5 pick in every draft. However, its looking more and more likely Kubiak and Co might be gone. At this time we have no idea what system will be in place, and how if at all it will impact Foster. Its also starting to look a bit more likely that Frasier will be coaching AP, and it seems like he'll build his team around defense and the run game. Not sure who the QB will be, but it could be TJax holding the place for a rookie. Maybe they get someone a little better like McNabb. Either way, just good enough to keep the running game viable, but not someone who will consistently carry the team passing the ball. Maybe in July Foster's situation seems really good, but if I had to pick now I'd bank on AP (especially in redraft). I also find it interesting how people are citing CJ as falling off, but not as evidence that it is really hard to match the staggering production we've seen out of CJ and Foster in recent years. All that said, if you see Foster as the highest ceiling guy and thats what youre after its hard to criticize that.
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doowain
Footballguy
Oh, because I disagree with you I don't know what I'm talking about and haven't watched many Texans games.....got it. I didn't realize you knew all. My apologies.And I wasn't comparing Foster to Slaton based on physical skills. They are different RBs. I was comparing their situations. Neither was considered an elite prospect coming out of college (hello undrafted free agent) and they both played in this offense which is clearly friendly to RBs. History would suggest that Foster will not be a long term starter at running back in the NFL. When is the last time an UDFA produced at RB1 levels for more than, say, 2-3 years? And THAT uncertainty is why he is too much of a risk to be a 1st round pick, let alone the 1.01.ETA: I know SOMEONE will take him that high. I can say with utmost certainty, that someone will not be me.mizat000 said:
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Koya
Footballguy
Should be ADP. He is a beast, the team has had a really off year and he is still producing, and the guy has done it more than once. Only thing holding back Arian Foster is the legit concern about one year wonders... but when you demonstrate his combination of speed, power and vision plus opportunity, I don't see him going below 1.2.
I simply can't believe we are still seeing people with this kind of thought process on Foster at this point. Regardless of what you felt about him at the start of the season or after his week 1 explosion or at the quarter point of the season or at the halfway point of the season, after 12 games of utter dominance, I simply can't figure out how anyone can still not be a believer. Go ahead and list me the running backs that have put up over 2,000 total yards (and over 1,600 rushing yards) and 20 touchdowns in a single season that failed to remain elite the next season (or the next several seasons, for that matter) because that is the pace Foster is on. I'll save you the time- your list will contain zero players because it has never happened. Foster is in no way, shape, or form Steve Slaton or anything close to him. Anyone who has watched him play would be unable to make that comparison unless you were being completely biased in the first place. And the Priest -vs- LJ statement is simply dead wrong. The career ending injury to Priest is the ONLY reason Larry Johnson got that opportunity as quickly as he did. Vermeil was not a Larry Johnson fan at all (something about a cry baby and diapers comes to mind). Had Priest remained healthy, he would have continued to be dominant for the forseeable future and would most likely have remained very fantasy viable in a timeshare after he was no longer dominant. Also, there is a very big difference in holding off a 1st round pick and the top running back drafted in the draft class (Priest -vs- LJ) as opposed to holding off a 2nd round pick that a lot of people question greatly (Foster -vs- Tate).As for the poll question, despite what I just said I think Peterson is the no brainer #1. The worry around Foster is not talent or competition for his job (he has completely put those to bed over the course of the season), but simply lack of track record and uncertain coaching future. I do agree with Doowain that I want a level of security out of my top pick and Peterson simply provides more certainty (as do MJD and Chris Johnson, for that matter). Whether it's name recognition bias or something else at work, I just feel more comfortable with Peterson (or MJD or Chris Johnson) as my top pick than I do Foster. That doesn't mean I don't think Foster will have a great year next season (I do), but rather I just feel more confident that Peterson (or MJD or Chris Johnson) will.doowain said:
trader jake
Footballguy
Voted Peterson for both.
Surprised Foster has more votes that CJ right now. I'm guessing that will change when ADP numbers start rolling out for 2011.
Surprised Foster has more votes that CJ right now. I'm guessing that will change when ADP numbers start rolling out for 2011.
Situation is one of the single most important factors in deciding where to draft a fantasy football player - the very topic we are discussing. Slaton was a very good back coming out of WVU - he is 3rd all time in big east rushing yards (with skipping his senior year), and we was not an UDFA, he was taken in the 3rd round. The reason Slaton was a one year wonder was that he developed a very bad fumbling problem and had a season ending shoulder injury. He also tried to bulk up by gaining 20 or so pounds, which cut down on his speed and agility significantly. He didn't think he had the size to be a durable elite NFL running back and he overcompensated and changed who he was as a RB. Foster has had the size, speed, and toughness all along but wasn't drafted because he had to spit carries with Hardesty his senior year at Ten., the team went 5-7, he made a few crucial fumbles that contributed to 2 of the team's losses, and Fulmer was fired, resulting in sub-par recommendations from his coaching staff. Just because he was an UDFA, doesn't mean he was so because he lacked so called 'elite talent'. You HAVE to look at the situation.If you base your fantasy draft primarily off how scouts perceived a 19/20/21 year old college kid then you are really doing your homework man. Ryan Grant was an UDFA who went as an RB1 in most fantasy drafts this year, as was Priest Holmes in the early 2000's before injury ended his career. The Texans drafted Tate because they didn't realize what they had in Foster. That's why he is 38.2% of their offense and it would be a terrible mistake to let Foster fall out of the top 5 in any 2011 ff draft.
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Koya
Footballguy
I disagree. Foster is a much more complete back than CJ. What we saw this year was what CJ really is, imo - a great talent, but has some boom/bust in him. He doesnt have the size to pound away and seems more prone to having a 2 pt game than ADP or Foster. When things click right he can break off 50+ yard runs, but those don't happen often.I don't see the rationale to have CJ ahead of Foster next year, assuming their situations remain relatively the same... even if Tenn improves their offense, they won't be nearly as good an offense as the Texans which only boosts Fosters' value.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Assuming no significant player movement that changes the landscape, in PPR I would rank them:
1.1 Foster
1.2 Hillis
1.3 MJD
1.4 Peterson
1.5 CJ
1.1 Foster
1.2 Hillis
1.3 MJD
1.4 Peterson
1.5 CJ
doowain
Footballguy
I'm not basing my draft on how scouts perceived Foster. Clearly they were wrong in some capacity. He's talented. I've not said otherwise. For me, he's not elite. He just isn't. He's not in Peterson/MJD/Charles/CJ3's league as far as dynasty is concerned. As I said earlier, I'd have no qualms about taking him Top 5 in redraft. Dynasty is a completely different beast though and that's the type of league I play in (outside of two local redrafts).I hear a lot of excuses about why he was an UDFA. I'm sure there are plenty of excuses you can find for every UDFA.The problem in betting on situation over talent is longevity. And that is killer in dynasty. Which player do you feel 3-4 years down the road will still be producing at a high level? It will be Peterson.
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puckalicious
Footballguy
Kind of reminds me of the dynasty debate of Stewart vs Mendenhall. I wished I would have listened to my gut and taken Mendenhall in the much better situation, over Stewart and the "elite talent".I'd take Foster 1.1 all day in any league format. Although I might actually take Mr All Day himself instead.doowain said:
doowain
Footballguy
Your Stewart over Mendenhall selection will pay major dividends this coming year.
puckalicious
Footballguy
Yeah I've been hearing that for a couple years now. I used to believe it. /hijack
I get that 3-4 years is more reliable in terms of betting rather than 1 1/4 years. I disagree that Peterson will be able to perform on the same level he has for the next 3-4 years though. In my mind, health and a player's 'legs' are critical. ADP's run style is aggressive as all hell. I can't see him staying healthy, running as hard as he has for another 3-4 years.. it just defies logic. A RB's 'prime years' are shorter than ever. That's why I like Foster so much. His situation is likely to stay the same, he is an extremely talented back (I play in a PPR league), and he is entering his 2nd full season, with the experience of finding/hitting the holes hard but not yet at a point where physical health is a concern. Zone blocking gives him bigger running lanes so he doesn't have to go all John Rambo like Peterson does every week. Its going to take a toll on ADP... and its likely to happen sooner than it is with Foster.
doowain
Footballguy
Ok....I give up. Peterson's running style lending to longevity defies logic.....but Foster becoming the first UDFA RB in NFL history to perform as a top tier RB1 for the next 4 years does not? And if the Texans continue to underachieve, the zone blocking scheme is gonna leave town as soon as Kubiak does.
doowain
Footballguy
I'm sorry you expected Stewart to perform up to his ability playing second fiddle to Deangelo. That doesn't detract from the fact that Stewart will be the man next year. Why lose faith now when that was the rub all along?
FantasyMan
Footballguy
A familiar thread, although last year it was CJ3 instead of Foster, the answer is the same answer that it was last year, Adrian Peterson.
Dude.. its a simple argument. I put more value on a guy having a significantly better fantasy year with no signs of slowing down who hasn't taken nearly the abuse that another RB has taken. Regardless if Kubiak is there or not, it is likely the same dominant offensive line will be there blocking for a guy who is in the MVP race this year. The problem with the Texans has nothing to do with zone blocking, its their last-ranked pass defense. A coach would have to be a complete idiot to change that offensive run scheme. The better argument for ADP is that Favre probably won't be there next year and the Vikes will have to rely more heavily on the run game - more touches for Peterson, but also more health/injury concern. It's a simple preference for: (top production now/little more risky situation/less risky health concern) over (3-4 year high quality but not #1 production/a little less risky situation/a little more risky health concern).
Also, I guess you don't like Mike Goodson either because he isn't "proven". Hes averaging 4.4 ypc compared to Stewart's 3.9 this year.
Also, I guess you don't like Mike Goodson either because he isn't "proven". Hes averaging 4.4 ypc compared to Stewart's 3.9 this year.
doowain
Footballguy
I will enjoy bumping this thread in a year. Gonna be a lot of disappointed Foster owners.
NorrisB
Footballguy
I like Chris Johnson for dynasty think he's the most talented RB ive seen in my life and feel he's a no brainer for #1 dynasty. Peterson's injury history and upright running style scares me. Went with Johnson redraft as well but thats open for debate just feel like he's a safe bet in both leagues.
Are you serious?ETA - and to stay on topic - ADP should be #1 RB taken in PPR or non-PPR
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