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Who's the 2016 NFL MVP right now? (1 Viewer)

And here's a statistical comparison of the 6 offenses:

Points Scored (not opponent adjusted)  
540    Atlanta Falcons
441    New England Patriots
432    Green Bay Packers
421    Dallas Cowboys
416    Oakland Raiders
346    Detroit Lions

Points Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
3.06    Atlanta Falcons
2.60    Green Bay Packers
2.54    Dallas Cowboys
2.53    New England Patriots
2.16    Oakland Raiders
2.13    Detroit Lions

OSRS (opponent adjusted)  
10.5    Atlanta Falcons
4.9    Green Bay Packers
4.3    New England Patriots
4.1    Dallas Cowboys
3.5    Oakland Raiders
-1.3    Detroit Lions
    
Yards Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
40.53    Atlanta Falcons
36.73    Green Bay Packers
35.70    Detroit Lions
35.63    Dallas Cowboys
35.48    New England Patriots
30.84    Oakland Raiders
    
Offensive DVOA (opponent adjusted)  
25.3%    Atlanta Falcons
21.1%    New England Patriots
20.4%    Dallas Cowboys
16.4%    Green Bay Packers
12.2%    Oakland Raiders
-1.0%    Detroit Lions

Turnovers Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
0.046    New England Patriots
0.066    Atlanta Falcons
0.074    Oakland Raiders
0.090    Dallas Cowboys
0.092    Detroit Lions
0.096    Green Bay Packers

Atlanta was #1 (in the NFL as a whole, not just among these 6 teams) on 5 of these 6 stats, and #2 on the 6th.

 
ZWK said:
And here's a statistical comparison of the 6 offenses:

Points Scored (not opponent adjusted)  
540    Atlanta Falcons
441    New England Patriots
432    Green Bay Packers
421    Dallas Cowboys
416    Oakland Raiders
346    Detroit Lions

Points Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
3.06    Atlanta Falcons
2.60    Green Bay Packers
2.54    Dallas Cowboys
2.53    New England Patriots
2.16    Oakland Raiders
2.13    Detroit Lions

OSRS (opponent adjusted)  
10.5    Atlanta Falcons
4.9    Green Bay Packers
4.3    New England Patriots
4.1    Dallas Cowboys
3.5    Oakland Raiders
-1.3    Detroit Lions
    
Yards Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
40.53    Atlanta Falcons
36.73    Green Bay Packers
35.70    Detroit Lions
35.63    Dallas Cowboys
35.48    New England Patriots
30.84    Oakland Raiders
    
Offensive DVOA (opponent adjusted)  
25.3%    Atlanta Falcons
21.1%    New England Patriots
20.4%    Dallas Cowboys
16.4%    Green Bay Packers
12.2%    Oakland Raiders
-1.0%    Detroit Lions

Turnovers Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
0.046    New England Patriots
0.066    Atlanta Falcons
0.074    Oakland Raiders
0.090    Dallas Cowboys
0.092    Detroit Lions
0.096    Green Bay Packers

Atlanta was #1 (in the NFL as a whole, not just among these 6 teams) on 5 of these 6 stats, and #2 on the 6th.
Click to expand...
People keep making a rather convincing argument for Kyle Shanahan. 

Understood, the QB on a top team with the best offense has a very good argument for MVP.  but this doesn't (really can't) dispute that Julio, Coleman and Freeman are better than anyone Brady or Rodgers played with this year (accounting for Gronk's injury).  Or that Atlanta had to put points on the board because they weren't stopping anyone  (bottom 6 defense).  That's a circular argument though, as winning the fifth most games with a bottom 6 defense is rather impressive. 

 
To me this is a year were no candidate really stands head and shoulders above all others.  Might we therefore see the cop out we have seen before of co-MVP's?  

 
ZWK said:
And here's a statistical comparison of the 6 offenses:

Points Scored (not opponent adjusted)  
540    Atlanta Falcons
441    New England Patriots
432    Green Bay Packers
421    Dallas Cowboys
416    Oakland Raiders
346    Detroit Lions

Points Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
3.06    Atlanta Falcons
2.60    Green Bay Packers
2.54    Dallas Cowboys
2.53    New England Patriots
2.16    Oakland Raiders
2.13    Detroit Lions

OSRS (opponent adjusted)  
10.5    Atlanta Falcons
4.9    Green Bay Packers
4.3    New England Patriots
4.1    Dallas Cowboys
3.5    Oakland Raiders
-1.3    Detroit Lions
    
Yards Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
40.53    Atlanta Falcons
36.73    Green Bay Packers
35.70    Detroit Lions
35.63    Dallas Cowboys
35.48    New England Patriots
30.84    Oakland Raiders
    
Offensive DVOA (opponent adjusted)  
25.3%    Atlanta Falcons
21.1%    New England Patriots
20.4%    Dallas Cowboys
16.4%    Green Bay Packers
12.2%    Oakland Raiders
-1.0%    Detroit Lions

Turnovers Per Drive (not opponent adjusted)  
0.046    New England Patriots
0.066    Atlanta Falcons
0.074    Oakland Raiders
0.090    Dallas Cowboys
0.092    Detroit Lions
0.096    Green Bay Packers

Atlanta was #1 (in the NFL as a whole, not just among these 6 teams) on 5 of these 6 stats, and #2 on the 6th.
Click to expand...
That's neat.  Rodgers would eat Ryan's lunch 7 days out of 7 though. 

 
For what it's worth both bovada and sports book opened with betting lines at Ryan +170, Rodgers +180, Brady +250.  24 hours later Ryan was at -120, Rodgers +240, Brady +300.

Its not impossible the market is wrong but that's a big move in 24 hours.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Schefter surveyed most of the voters and concluded Ryan is going to win. 
Click to expand...
I guess if Barry Sanders can win it as a RB on a 9-7 team, Ryan could win it QB'ing an 11-5 team.  Sanders had 2,053 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards with a total of 13 TDs that year.

Very different positions and responsibilities.

If Ryan was really a league MVP (not his team's MVP), they would have finished with a much better record.  He is in the discussion but not deserving, IMO.

 
Bad_Mo said:
I guess if Barry Sanders can win it as a RB on a 9-7 team, Ryan could win it QB'ing an 11-5 team.  Sanders had 2,053 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards with a total of 13 TDs that year.

Very different positions and responsibilities.

If Ryan was really a league MVP (not his team's MVP), they would have finished with a much better record.  He is in the discussion but not deserving, IMO.
Click to expand...
Rich Gannon, Brett Favre, and Brian Sipe each won with 11-5 records.

 
Bad_Mo said:
I guess if Barry Sanders can win it as a RB on a 9-7 team, Ryan could win it QB'ing an 11-5 team.  Sanders had 2,053 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards with a total of 13 TDs that year.

Very different positions and responsibilities.

If Ryan was really a league MVP (not his team's MVP), they would have finished with a much better record.  He is in the discussion but not deserving, IMO.
Click to expand...
You act as if 11-5 is the same as going .500.  Who cares what the exact record was when he was a huge reason they made the playoffs.  If The Patriots were 11-5 no one would change their minds on how they feel about him being the MVP.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
You act as if 11-5 is the same as going .500.  Who cares what the exact record was when he was a huge reason they made the playoffs.  If The Patriots were 11-5 no one would change their minds on how they feel about him being the MVP.
Click to expand...
Its very different than going 11-1 as Brady did.  They both lost to SEA in pretty close games.  However, Matty Ice also lost to SD, PHI, TB and KC.  Two teams in the playoffs and three teams who missed the playoffs.

 
Bad_Mo said:
Its very different than going 11-1 as Brady did.  They both lost to SEA in pretty close games.  However, Matty Ice also lost to SD, PHI, TB and KC.  Two teams in the playoffs and three teams who missed the playoffs.
Click to expand...
You're looking at two teams with completely different defenses.  You think that might help just a tiny bit?

 
Yeah the award isn't just handed out to the best team.

We have the Super Bowl for that.

If you are comparing team wins and losses, that's silly.

One guy was suspended for cheating, is that a factor?

 
Bad_Mo said:
I guess if Barry Sanders can win it as a RB on a 9-7 team, Ryan could win it QB'ing an 11-5 team.  Sanders had 2,053 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards with a total of 13 TDs that year.

Very different positions and responsibilities.

If Ryan was really a league MVP (not his team's MVP), they would have finished with a much better record.  He is in the discussion but not deserving, IMO.
Click to expand...
Yeah, if Ryan just played linebacker and corner he could be mvp.

 
Circular argument that if Ryan had a better defense he would have won more games, but if Brady had a worse defense he would have shattered passing records.

 
Run It Up said:
Circular argument that if Ryan had a better defense he would have won more games, but if Brady had a worse defense he would have shattered passing records.
Click to expand...
When I've replied either way, it's not an argument for one or the other as much as it's a reminder to take these things in context. (I don't know if Brady would have shattered records, don't think anyone is saying he would.)

Bottom line imo, Falcons and Packers would not be in the playoffs if not for Ryan and Rodgers.  Patriots might not have been the 1 seed but probably make it. 

 
FUBAR said:
Bottom line imo, Falcons and Packers would not be in the playoffs if not for Ryan and Rodgers.  Patriots might not have been the 1 seed but probably make it. 
Click to expand...
How is that the "bottom line"?  Are you implying that means something? 

First of all, I am not so sure the Pats make the playoffs without Brady coming off getting slammed by the Bills like that.  Second, even if they did manage to squeak by and get in at 8-8 or 9-7 or whatever.........................so???  Brady went 11-1 and took them to the #1 seed.  The #1 seed is better than where ATL and GB ended up.  Yes the rest of the team in NE is better than ATL and GB, but they also finished up a lot better. 

So, again, not really sure what your bottom line was.

I am not even saying I for sure think Brady should be the MVP or not, but that argument certainly wouldn't have me looking at Rodgers/Ryan over him. 

However, I do know that the only time Brady had a stud WR on his side, they broke records. 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
You're looking at two teams with completely different defenses.  You think that might help just a tiny bit?
Click to expand...
So, a QB with a better defense gets dinged for that?  How about a worse defense that gives up more yards and points puts the QB in a position to throw the ball more often, leading to higher offensive stats.  Stats are awesome.  Almost as nice as wins.

 
Run It Up said:
Circular argument that if Ryan had a better defense he would have won more games, but if Brady had a worse defense he would have shattered passing records.
Click to expand...
Ryan also had better first half stats than Brady (both efficiency and volume). It was not just a matter of Brady slowing down to protect a second half lead.

 
ghostguy123 said:
How is that the "bottom line"?  Are you implying that means something? 

First of all, I am not so sure the Pats make the playoffs without Brady coming off getting slammed by the Bills like that.  Second, even if they did manage to squeak by and get in at 8-8 or 9-7 or whatever.........................so???  Brady went 11-1 and took them to the #1 seed.  The #1 seed is better than where ATL and GB ended up.  Yes the rest of the team in NE is better than ATL and GB, but they also finished up a lot better. 

So, again, not really sure what your bottom line was.

I am not even saying I for sure think Brady should be the MVP or not, but that argument certainly wouldn't have me looking at Rodgers/Ryan over him. 

However, I do know that the only time Brady had a stud WR on his side, they broke records. 
Click to expand...
Pats were 3-1 without Brady.  Granted, Jimmy got hurt but with him I feel reasonably sure that they're better than 5-7 the rest of the season. 

And yeah, I'm implying winning the division with a bottom 10 defense means something. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK said:
Ryan also had better first half stats than Brady (both efficiency and volume). It was not just a matter of Brady slowing down to protect a second half lead.
Click to expand...
"Better" is not always the guy that had a higher baseline of individual numbers.

NE with Brady was only behind at the half one time (in the one game they lost with Brady) and were ahead by an average og 9.3 points.
ATL was behind 5 times at the half and were ahead an average of 6.3 points. They ended up blowing a 10 point lead in losing to SD. And who could forget the last minute pick 2 to blow the game against the Chiefs.

So sure, Ryan had "better" numbers than Brady, but Brady put NE in a better position to win. The two QBs tied in wins but Brady had 4 fewer losses. The point is to win games, not put up lofty individual stats.

Certainly there are lots of reasons why NE won more frequently (coaching, defense, etc.) But Brady did what he was supposed to. Win games and minimize turnovers.

And none of that means Brady should or should not be MVP.

 
massraider said:
Youi juyst described Alex Smith.  
Click to expand...
Except Brady scores more, has better stats, has fewer turnovers, and wins more games. The other difference is Brady and the Pats can go full throttle if they want to. I'm not sure the Chiefs can just turn the switch on and score in buckets.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Except Brady scores more, has better stats, has fewer turnovers, and wins more games. The other difference is Brady and the Pats can go full throttle if they want to. I'm not sure the Chiefs can just turn the switch on and score in buckets.
Click to expand...
Yes, Brady is better.  I think I can agree with that.

That wasn't the point.  Game manager qualities don't enter into the discussion, not as much as numbers.  You know that.  

Brady set the record for TD to INT ratio.  He broke Nick Foles' record.  I don't recall Foles winning the MVP.   

 
massraider said:
Yes, Brady is better.  I think I can agree with that.

That wasn't the point.  Game manager qualities don't enter into the discussion, not as much as numbers.  You know that.  

Brady set the record for TD to INT ratio.  He broke Nick Foles' record.  I don't recall Foles winning the MVP.   
Click to expand...
I don't recall Foles earning a one seed and having a .917 winning percentage.

I am not one of the ones really saying Brady should be MVP this year. He's had other good years. His best selling point is the TD to INT ratio and having the highest winning% in the league.

But NE had no really signature wins that he was stupendous in, they put beat downs on teams that were out of playoff contention in October, and played a who's who of less than stellar QB's. The defense performed much better than other years, so yeah, the Pats should have had 14 wins.

Had Gronk stayed healthy, the Pats offense would probably have been in a different strata. It would have been interesting if Brady could have played 16 games with Gronk around as well. Brady probably would have had better numbers than Ryan and Rodgers but still with a one seed and probably a 15-1 record. But that's not what happened, so I don't see people voting for what didn't happen. 

 
FUBAR said:
His passer rating of 112 is impressive.

Ryan's 117 is more so. 
Click to expand...
Meh, a few potential reason for that:

1- Losing and needing late points more often against soft D.

2- Julio freaking Jones

When the passer rating is that close Julio, more losses, and playing in a dome just doesn't make a 5 point passer rating difference all that special. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123 said:
Meh, a few potential reason for that:

1- Losing and needing late points more often against soft D.

2- Julio freaking Jones

When the passer rating is that close Julio, more losses, and playing in a dome just doesn't make a 5 point passer rating difference all that special. 
Click to expand...
Losing?  I must be missing something when the 11-5, 2 seed, is getting easy stats playing behind. Sure, the Falcons need him to throw more than the pats need beady to throw.  But that doesn't make it easy. 

Julio is great no doubt.  

 
FUBAR said:
Losing?  I must be missing something when the 11-5, 2 seed, is getting easy stats playing behind. Sure, the Falcons need him to throw more than the pats need beady to throw.  But that doesn't make it easy. 

Julio is great no doubt.  
Click to expand...
Atlanta ranked 26th in the league in passing attempts. Ryan threw 33 pass attempts a game, Brady threw 36. So the argument is not only ridiculous, it's contradicted by the available facts.

 
Bad_Mo said:
I guess if Barry Sanders can win it as a RB on a 9-7 team, Ryan could win it QB'ing an 11-5 team.  Sanders had 2,053 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards with a total of 13 TDs that year.

Very different positions and responsibilities.

If Ryan was really a league MVP (not his team's MVP), they would have finished with a much better record.  He is in the discussion but not deserving, IMO.
Click to expand...
You can dismiss 11-5 all you want, but Ryan had an incredible season on the best offense in the league and his team is the 2 seed in the NFC.  It's not like he's on some 8-8 team that eked its way into the playoffs by playing in a bad division. 

FUBAR said:
His passer rating of 112 is impressive.

Ryan's 117 is more so. 
Click to expand...
Yep. The fact that Ryan still had a better passer rating, despite Brady's awesome 28 -2 TD-INT ratio, just shows how incredible he was this season.  If Brady or Rodgers had had the kind of season Ryan had, statistically speaking, the talk wouldn't be, should he be the mvp; it would be, will he be the unanimous winner.  The fact that Ryan has never been considered a top tier, or even second tier, QB is a large reason why many are hesitant to give it to him. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hawkeye21 said:
You're looking at two teams with completely different defenses.  You think that might help just a tiny bit?
Click to expand...
Why bother?  He's so far up Brady's ### it's pointless to debate.  

 
5.  We are talking about 5 points in the passer rating.  A rating that has since been trumped by more important/better stats anyway.

 
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