Why all the Vincent Brown Love? (1 Viewer)

[FantasyTrader]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

Clearly the best on the team? Based on what? A few reports in training camp? He's done squat IMO to carry such hype. They liked him so much they brought DX back and drafted yet another WR...

I misspoke. I meant 2011/2012. Based on what? Like I said - a VERY limited sample size. In 2011, Brown was second only to Kenny Britt among the top 100 WR's in fantasy pts scored per target (again, the guy only had 19 targets - so is that sustainable? Who knows)

If you think he's done squat to justify the hype then IMO you're not paying attention.

 

[FantasyMan]

I don't really get it. How is this guy worth hardly anything in a fantasy context, redraft or dynasty? I'm not posting this piece for clicks, I really want someone to tell me why I'm wrong about this dude who just doesn't seem to be very good.

Per FF Calculator ADP, he is being drafted as WR43 and over the last week, his overall draft position has crept into the 10th round. This madness has to stop. Coming out of San Diego State, Brown simply didn’t have the physical measurables that would suggest he was ever going to be anything special.

Height 5'11 Weight 181 40 4.68 Vertical 33.5 Inches Explosion Score 10.89 Broad Jump 121 inches Bench 12 reps

He is a short speed receiver with no speed. Honestly, it’s hard to even see how the Chargers are justified in giving Brown a starting role to start the season, given his relatively poor college production. He certainly fails Jon Moore’s “Eric Decker Test”. Look at the Rotoviz Heat Map of Brown’s college production, and just for comparison’s sake, lets include Chargers rookie Keenan Allen:

Heat Map Link

Brown had one solid season of production where beat Allen down on yards per target, and 12.88 on 105 targets certainly isn’t awful, but Brown never had even a B Dominator Rating (check Shawn Siegele’s excellent moneyinthebananastand.com for more info on Dominator Rating). Generally, Brown is a pretty meh prospect. He played against weaker competition in college, has already been injured for an entire NFL season and is not playing in an offense that I expect to be wildly production. Phillip Rivers Adjusted Yards Per Attempt when throwing to Brown in 2011 was 8.1 yards on 40 attempts, which is not a positive, considering that Rivers’ numbers were better Malcom Floyd (who is still on the roster) and a breaking down Antonio Gates.

I know that he runs really good routes and he has some solid hands. There are certainly things that scouts are going to love about his game, but I have grave doubts about his ability to produce for fantasy owners. Instead of selecting Brown, take a shot on Sidney Rice, Reuben Randle, Josh Gordon, or Mike Williams; all of those guys are going in a similar range to Brown and have much, much, much higher upsides.

Link

After reading this thread I think you are putting too much into his 4.68 forty number, or any of his measurable for that matter. Watch the guy play. He plays fast. Very fast. He runs great routes and understands how to get open. He's well worth the risk at even 2 rounds before his current ADP.

As to his college production being relatively poor:

Draft Scout Snapshot: DS Rating on 9-1-10: #13 WR, #113/750 Overall, 4-5
2010: Brown caught 69 passes for 1,352 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to earning first-team all-Mountain West Conference honors during 2010. His 1,352 yards are the fourth most in school history and he produced six 100-yard receiving efforts during the season. Brown is coming off a Poinsettia Bowl record-breaking performance, with 165 yards receiving on eight catches. He caught a 53-yard touchdown strike in the first quarter of the Aztecs' 35-14 victory over Navy. In four seasons at San Diego State, Brown caught 209 passes for 3,110 yards and 23 touchdowns. He departs the school with a record-tying 13 100-yard receiving games and is third in receiving yards, third in receptions and fifth in receiving touchdowns...

2009: One of 10 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award, presented annually to the nation's top receiver ... Second-team all-MWC ... Ended the year with 45 catches for 778 yards and six touchdowns ... Five 100-yard receiving games, including four straight to start the year ... Had a touchdown in each of the team's opening five contests ... Started the first seven games, before suffering a season-ending thumb injury at Colorado State on Oct. 24

What would he have had to have done to have good college production? even average, in your mind? Or are you too bogged down in whatever tool you use for analysis and just choose to use the phrase 'poor college production'?

All of the spreadsheets and tools in the world won't help you judge an outlier like Brown. You have to watch him play.

 

[Patoons]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

Well, to be fair, I don't think Vincent Brown is Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker or Jerry Rice. You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

Oh, and the reason the cut off date was 1999 was because that was when nflcombineresults.com database ends.

 

[kutta]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

Well, to be fair, I don't think Vincent Brown is Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker or Jerry Rice. You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

Oh, and the reason the cut off date was 1999 was because that was when nflcombineresults.com database ends.

If "draft the hell out of Vincent Brown" means taking him as a WR4 in the 10th round, then I think he will have the hell drafted out of him.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

Well, to be fair, I don't think Vincent Brown is Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker or Jerry Rice. You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

Oh, and the reason the cut off date was 1999 was because that was when nflcombineresults.com database ends.

If "draft the hell out of Vincent Brown" means taking him as a WR4 in the 10th round, then I think he will have the hell drafted out of him.

Right on. That's probably where I'll be taking my 1st QB.

 

[kutta]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

Well, to be fair, I don't think Vincent Brown is Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker or Jerry Rice. You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

Oh, and the reason the cut off date was 1999 was because that was when nflcombineresults.com database ends.

If "draft the hell out of Vincent Brown" means taking him as a WR4 in the 10th round, then I think he will have the hell drafted out of him.

Right on. That's probably where I'll be taking my 1st QB.

Awesome for you. Way to go.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I think Vincent Brown will take over as the Bolts #1 WR and since I think that is going to happen, and that their are 32 teams, that the odds are that he will be in the top-30 WRs this year.

I felt last year the plan was to have V-Brown as the #1 WR for San Deigo but the injury side-tracked his path for a year.

My observation is he has the best speed of the legit candidates of that group, he runs the best routes, and is the most atheletic or the WRs vying to be the #1 WR.

A broken bone doesn't concern me like a ligament injury would.

The Bolts O-Line did add a couple of OTs, Max Starks via FA and Fluker from the draft, and the offensive scheme switches from Norv Turner's five/seven stop drop vertical-stretch offense to getting the ball out quicker so a WR like Brown who runs precise routes and makes consistent catches is in prime position to become the go-to guy.

Add, Phil Rivers is highly productive even when he has what is considered an 'off' year which bodes well for his WRs.

I like Vincent Brown a lot this year and I do see him as a top-30 WR.

It what way, shape or form is he the athlete that Denario Alexander is?

This. If it wasn't for his degenerative legs, Alexander would be a perennial all-pro imo. It's sad that a guy with that much talent has to deal with such a rare condition.

 

[Patoons]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

I can understand looking at and considering measurables, but why the 4.65 40 time cut-off? And, why 1999?

Some other very solid fantasy players at one point or another were very much in the 4.68 range (0.07 maximum difference appears to be splitting hairs), e.g.:

- Fitzgerald 4.63

- B.Lloyd 4.62

- Welker 4.61

- Rice 4.71 (granted a long time ago)

While measurables are an important consideration, I'm struggling to see the relevance in this instance as other's have been successful; it's not just Boldin versus Clayton. Brown may not have track speed, but he exhibited the ability to create separation in his rookie year.

I think the Brown hype comes from his production in the only four games he started in 2011 as a rookie, which also happened to be the only four games he played over 80% of snaps (or even close to that number with the next highest being 33%). Over those four games, he posted the following:

27 Targets

13 catches

234 yards

1 TD

That's a fairly impressive stretch for a rookie who only started those games. He also had a nice dud in there with a 1 catch for 8 yards game. Give me a guy who showed a nice glimpse as a rookie and has received rave off-season reviews over the last two years as my fourth dynasty receiver (even if Danario is healthy and can produce as he did in 2012). Over Mike Williams? Maybe not, but there are many guys within that range who he should continue to be drafted over.

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

Well, to be fair, I don't think Vincent Brown is Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker or Jerry Rice. You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

Oh, and the reason the cut off date was 1999 was because that was when nflcombineresults.com database ends.

I don't think he's Fitzgerald, Rice, or Welker. I think it's important to point out that there are others who have been successful. His value appears about right, if not potentially a tad low as a 10th rounder. Very few of those guys in that round will be relevant in dynasty leagues in 3-4 years. Seems like Brown is as good a bet as anyone in that value range and there appears to be some justification based upon his rookie season production as a starter.

Fair point on the '99 reference.

 

[Shanahanigans]

His pro day says he ran a 4.57?

Everybody knows pro-day times are inflated, usually at .1 faster. Brown is no different. He ran a 4.67 at the combine and a 4.57 at his pro day. You always throw out the pro day time when you have a combine time, always.

 

[Touchdown There]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

You are right,I should clarify. If you own Brown you have one less roster spot compared to the rest of your league. That is his relevance in fantasy.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

You are right,I should clarify. If you own Brown you have one less roster spot compared to the rest of your league. That is his relevance in fantasy.

I think he can be relevant, but never anything more than a strong WR4 maybe a low-end WR3. There is value in guys like that, but they are more bit pieces to throw onto a trade, or someone to plug in for bye weeks or injuries. These type of guys will never win you a championship. The only case I can think of is that huge year Steve Smith had with the Giants, and even Smith at least ran a 4.4.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Brown's best attribute is his precision route running. He also has a pretty solid burst which allows him to get open. His 40 time really doesn't matter, he has enough speed to make any play on the field. He's not a burner that you are going to see running deep routes. He's going to make his living running short-intermediate yard routes.

That being said, he's going to need an injury to have a significant impact this season IMO. I expect the team to use a 4 man rotation at WR on top of heavy TE usage.

 

[amnesiac]

if nothing else, this thread has convinced me to keep Brown in my deep roster dynasty league.

kind of doubt i'd draft him as anything other than a WR5 for a redraft though, at least before hearing training camp reports.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Brown's best attribute is his precision route running. He also has a pretty solid burst which allows him to get open. His 40 time really doesn't matter, he has enough speed to make any play on the field. He's not a burner that you are going to see running deep routes. He's going to make his living running short-intermediate yard routes.

That being said, he's going to need an injury to have a significant impact this season IMO. I expect the team to use a 4 man rotation at WR on top of heavy TE usage.

That's a point no one has brought up. The team WILL use Antonio Gates, and they have happen to have a pretty rare athletic specimen in Ladarius Green who redshirted last year, but has the rare type of attributes that you see in NFL-productive tight ends.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

 

[domvin]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I will play your 1999 game. Look up houshmanzadeh. He was a 7th rounder, what was his 40? He was never listed as a blazer but he was fantasy relavant

 

[domvin]

Brown's best attribute is his precision route running. He also has a pretty solid burst which allows him to get open. His 40 time really doesn't matter, he has enough speed to make any play on the field. He's not a burner that you are going to see running deep routes. He's going to make his living running short-intermediate yard routes.

That being said, he's going to need an injury to have a significant impact this season IMO. I expect the team to use a 4 man rotation at WR on top of heavy TE usage.

That's a point no one has brought up. The team WILL use Antonio Gates, and they have happen to have a pretty rare athletic specimen in Ladarius Green who redshirted last year, but has the rare type of attributes that you see in NFL-productive tight ends.

Athletic specimen? 5th rounder Ladarius Green. Dont pull any muscles on your reach!

 

[BoltBacker]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I must admit I haven't followed this thing all that closely... what is the "top 30" talk all about? Vincent Brown is currently ranked ~WR50 with an ADP of ~130. The WR30 has an ADP of ~78.

 

[domvin]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

You are right,I should clarify. If you own Brown you have one less roster spot compared to the rest of your league. That is his relevance in fantasy.

Maybe define fantasy relevance? Its very ambiguous

 

[Touchdown There]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

You are right,I should clarify. If you own Brown you have one less roster spot compared to the rest of your league. That is his relevance in fantasy.

Maybe define fantasy relevance? Its very ambiguous

He is worthless on 20 man rosters. Sell in deep leagues.

 

[domvin]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

You are right,I should clarify. If you own Brown you have one less roster spot compared to the rest of your league. That is his relevance in fantasy.

Maybe define fantasy relevance? Its very ambiguous

He is worthless on 20 man rosters. Sell in deep leagues.

He is rostered in all my leagues.... 12, 14,,16 teamers. I think you are crazy.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I will play your 1999 game. Look up houshmanzadeh. He was a 7th rounder, what was his 40? He was never listed as a blazer but he was fantasy relavant

He never posted a combine time, as he wasn't invited.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Brown's best attribute is his precision route running. He also has a pretty solid burst which allows him to get open. His 40 time really doesn't matter, he has enough speed to make any play on the field. He's not a burner that you are going to see running deep routes. He's going to make his living running short-intermediate yard routes.

That being said, he's going to need an injury to have a significant impact this season IMO. I expect the team to use a 4 man rotation at WR on top of heavy TE usage.

That's a point no one has brought up. The team WILL use Antonio Gates, and they have happen to have a pretty rare athletic specimen in Ladarius Green who redshirted last year, but has the rare type of attributes that you see in NFL-productive tight ends.

Athletic specimen? 5th rounder Ladarius Green. Dont pull any muscles on your reach!

I admit it's pretty unlikely that he produces at the NFL level (he was a 4th round, not 5th round selection), but as far as meeting athletic thresholds, he is a better fit than Brown.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I must admit I haven't followed this thing all that closely... what is the "top 30" talk all about? Vincent Brown is currently ranked ~WR50 with an ADP of ~130. The WR30 has an ADP of ~78.

Basically, the best way to determine the future value of a dynasty prospect is the likelihood that they ever post a Top-30 season at their position (WR especially)

 

[Groundpounder]

Lava .... quick question. Have you ever seen Vincent Brown actually play? I play the numbers game as well in addition to trusting what I see players do on the field. Since you're so interested in the history of numbers. Did you bother to develop a list of players with top ten combine numbers that amounted to nothing? I'm one that liked Vincent Brown based on what I SAW on the field and was shocked when I looked at the numbers and saw his height, weight, and 40 time. I'm not sure if he'll be top 30 or not but I certainly don't see him as a player that is a long shot to do so. I think he's got about as good a chance as anyone on that SD roster. However, I will say that his chances will decrease every year he and Keenan Allen are both on the same roster.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

His pro day says he ran a 4.57?

I saw reports in 2011 of a 4.56 at his pro day. That said, I still don't see any reason to take the guy (or acquire him in any leagues) as anything more than a WR5. Agree with those pointing out that he's not big, he's not fast or blessed with a lot of "quick twitch" and it's hard to see how breaking an ankle last year will help that. It's also difficult to see how he would ever get separation against NFL corners on a consistent basis to give Rivers the confidence to throw in his direction. Couple that with Rivers and his issues, I really don't like his odds at all and will probably just avoid him altogether unless it was to quickly move for another player.

Plus, the hype generated last year during preseason was when he was running against 2nd and 3rd team defenses.....he only briefly ran with the starters and that target was picked off. Maybe because he wasn't open. But, if you are prone to latch on to the echo chamber hype machine, he's probably your guy, all 4.7 / 40 of him.

 

[jacobo_moses]

The SD beat writer said most impressive players at OTAs was Vincent brown and Woodhead. So safe to say he is onne of the fantasy WRs to own for SD. I am playing safe and calling him a WR4/WR3 type until I see him stay healthy this yr. But yes the hype is warranted. But if Brown taps into his potential from the end of his rookie year. He will be A WR2 in most leagues. I remember his breakout game his rookie yr. WHAT impressed me the most was his my ball mentality and ball skills. And route running. That game I speak of he looked more impressive then Vjax. Just my observation.

 

[ldizzle]

Lava .... quick question. Have you ever seen Vincent Brown actually play? I play the numbers game as well in addition to trusting what I see players do on the field. Since you're so interested in the history of numbers. Did you bother to develop a list of players with top ten combine numbers that amounted to nothing? I'm one that liked Vincent Brown based on what I SAW on the field and was shocked when I looked at the numbers and saw his height, weight, and 40 time. I'm not sure if he'll be top 30 or not but I certainly don't see him as a player that is a long shot to do so. I think he's got about as good a chance as anyone on that SD roster. However, I will say that his chances will decrease every year he and Keenan Allen are both on the same roster.

I agree with this. In the few games I seen him actually start in his rookie season I was impressed and the reason why this thread exists is because others were as well imo.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think Vincent Brown will take over as the Bolts #1 WR and since I think that is going to happen, and that their are 32 teams, that the odds are that he will be in the top-30 WRs this year.

I felt last year the plan was to have V-Brown as the #1 WR for San Deigo but the injury side-tracked his path for a year.

My observation is he has the best speed of the legit candidates of that group, he runs the best routes, and is the most atheletic or the WRs vying to be the #1 WR.

A broken bone doesn't concern me like a ligament injury would.

The Bolts O-Line did add a couple of OTs, Max Starks via FA and Fluker from the draft, and the offensive scheme switches from Norv Turner's five/seven stop drop vertical-stretch offense to getting the ball out quicker so a WR like Brown who runs precise routes and makes consistent catches is in prime position to become the go-to guy.

Add, Phil Rivers is highly productive even when he has what is considered an 'off' year which bodes well for his WRs.

I like Vincent Brown a lot this year and I do see him as a top-30 WR.

It what way, shape or form is he the athlete that Denario Alexander is?

This. If it wasn't for his degenerative legs, Alexander would be a perennial all-pro imo. It's sad that a guy with that much talent has to deal with such a rare condition.

Danario Alexander hit free agency this year but no-one bit so he went back to the Chargers and they only inked him to a one-year deal.

He is a big-tall WR with great balance and big-play potential and he's not old, he should have been a hot commodity but no NFL took a flyer on him and the Chargers didn't lock him up to a long-term contract so it wasn't just one team who passed up the opportunity to sign him to a long term deal, it was the entire National Football League.

I think that tells a lot about the chances for Danario Alexander to turn into San Diego's #1 WR. Unfortunately I don't think the Chargers see him as a viable long-term option.

I see Danario as a bridge until the rookie they drafted takes over but I see Vince Brown as the Bolts #1 WR.

Its a matter of opinion and its a 'gut-feeling' that Vincent Brown will break-out this year.

I get the puzzlement or irritation of anyone questioning the love but its not luv, its a gut feeling. I just think he's ripe and it happens where guys get the opportunity and they break out.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I've never really seen the hype justification for Brown, but aside from that - I find this comparison one of the most amusing in the NFL:

Guy A:

6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands

4.4/4.5 speed

41.5" vert

4.1 short shuttle

best college season, 1781 yards (SEC)

lead the NFL in yards per target last year

Guy B:

5'11", 33" arms, 10.25" hands

4.7 speed

33.5" vert

4.25 short shuttle

best college season, 1352 yards (Mountain West Conference)

All knee injury jokes and realities aside, that's one heck of a competition. If he wants to win, Brown better be good with a sling and stone, cuz this is a David/Goliath from for anything except injury history standpoint (where he's not squeaky clean either BTW).

Who are the players in this comparison?

 

[Go Blue]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I must admit I haven't followed this thing all that closely... what is the "top 30" talk all about? Vincent Brown is currently ranked ~WR50 with an ADP of ~130. The WR30 has an ADP of ~78.

Basically, the best way to determine the future value of a dynasty prospect is the likelihood that they ever post a Top-30 season at their position (WR especially)

I really don't understand this line of thinking. Except for my local buddy redraft league, all my leagues are dynasty leagues. My 10 teamers start 5 Wr's each week, my 12 teamers start 4-5 Wr's each week, my 16 teamers start 3 Wr's each week. At a minimum my dynasty leagues start 48 Wr's each week. Yeah, every owner wants to start only top 30 guys each week, but because of injuries and bye weeks it's not gonna happen. Brown is very fantasy relevant in my mind.

While some my say I'm going out on a limb, I still stand by my comment that Brown is going to be a top 30 guy this year in PPR leagues. His skills will be a perfect scheme fit while Alexander's are just the opposite. Then you have Danario's injury concerns on top of that. I don't see another Wr on the roster I'm worried about this year. Sure I like Allen, but not his rookie year. Mathews, Woodhead, Gates. Meh....

 

[massraider]

Which ADP we talking about here? I checked MFL for PPR and I agree that WR40-45 seems high. But he doesn't seem to be going there. Seems about 10-12 shots lower, around guys like Ruben Randle.

 

[BoltBacker]

Which ADP we talking about here? I checked MFL for PPR and I agree that WR40-45 seems high. But he doesn't seem to be going there. Seems about 10-12 shots lower, around guys like Ruben Randle.

That's my confusion as well. The point of this thread seems to be that Brown is not a top-30 WR. I doesn't seem to me that many people(if anyone) is claiming he is a top-30 WR.

 

[skinsrule05]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

Well said, this is spot on.

 

[Shanahanigans]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I must admit I haven't followed this thing all that closely... what is the "top 30" talk all about? Vincent Brown is currently ranked ~WR50 with an ADP of ~130. The WR30 has an ADP of ~78.

Basically, the best way to determine the future value of a dynasty prospect is the likelihood that they ever post a Top-30 season at their position (WR especially)

I really don't understand this line of thinking. Except for my local buddy redraft league, all my leagues are dynasty leagues. My 10 teamers start 5 Wr's each week, my 12 teamers start 4-5 Wr's each week, my 16 teamers start 3 Wr's each week. At a minimum my dynasty leagues start 48 Wr's each week.

To be fair, most leagues start, at most, 36 WRs a week. Most leagues are 12 Team, start 2-3 WRs. I think your leagues are the exception, not the rule.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Lava .... quick question. Have you ever seen Vincent Brown actually play? I play the numbers game as well in addition to trusting what I see players do on the field. Since you're so interested in the history of numbers. Did you bother to develop a list of players with top ten combine numbers that amounted to nothing? I'm one that liked Vincent Brown based on what I SAW on the field and was shocked when I looked at the numbers and saw his height, weight, and 40 time. I'm not sure if he'll be top 30 or not but I certainly don't see him as a player that is a long shot to do so. I think he's got about as good a chance as anyone on that SD roster. However, I will say that his chances will decrease every year he and Keenan Allen are both on the same roster.

I have watched him play. That Thursday night game where Brown caught a touchdown and had another one called back, I was rooting for the Vincent opposite him! I think that he is a technically proficient wide receiver who has serious real life/NFL value. I just don't believe that he will post a top 30 season (for dynasty leagues) and I think that his upside this year is capped as long as that O-Line is as bad as it is, and Rivers is as bad as he is.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Which ADP we talking about here? I checked MFL for PPR and I agree that WR40-45 seems high. But he doesn't seem to be going there. Seems about 10-12 shots lower, around guys like Ruben Randle.

That's my confusion as well. The point of this thread seems to be that Brown is not a top-30 WR. I doesn't seem to me that many people(if anyone) is claiming he is a top-30 WR.

Mentioned in the piece, I was using FF Calculators ADP over the last 2 weeks.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

The SD beat writer said most impressive players at OTAs was Vincent brown and Woodhead. So safe to say he is onne of the fantasy WRs to own for SD. I am playing safe and calling him a WR4/WR3 type until I see him stay healthy this yr. But yes the hype is warranted. But if Brown taps into his potential from the end of his rookie year. He will be A WR2 in most leagues. I remember his breakout game his rookie yr. WHAT impressed me the most was his my ball mentality and ball skills. And route running. That game I speak of he looked more impressive then Vjax. Just my observation.

I will be the first one to say that following beat writers is pretty helpful, but if that's your only justification for drafting a dude? It's probably not going to work out that well.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

You dudes can draft the hell out of Vincent Brown, but you're betting against history doing so.

When we draft Brown, we are betting against the guys who didn't draft Brown. You're saying those guys are history?

Haha, no, that's not what I"m saying. Brown would be the first player since 1999 of his physical profile to post a top 30 season.

I must admit I haven't followed this thing all that closely... what is the "top 30" talk all about? Vincent Brown is currently ranked ~WR50 with an ADP of ~130. The WR30 has an ADP of ~78.

Basically, the best way to determine the future value of a dynasty prospect is the likelihood that they ever post a Top-30 season at their position (WR especially)

I really don't understand this line of thinking. Except for my local buddy redraft league, all my leagues are dynasty leagues. My 10 teamers start 5 Wr's each week, my 12 teamers start 4-5 Wr's each week, my 16 teamers start 3 Wr's each week. At a minimum my dynasty leagues start 48 Wr's each week. Yeah, every owner wants to start only top 30 guys each week, but because of injuries and bye weeks it's not gonna happen. Brown is very fantasy relevant in my mind.

While some my say I'm going out on a limb, I still stand by my comment that Brown is going to be a top 30 guy this year in PPR leagues. His skills will be a perfect scheme fit while Alexander's are just the opposite. Then you have Danario's injury concerns on top of that. I don't see another Wr on the roster I'm worried about this year. Sure I like Allen, but not his rookie year. Mathews, Woodhead, Gates. Meh....

Sure, in that format he is certainly worth owning. I'm not saying he should be sitting on the wire anywhere. This piece was mostly written in reaction to some fantasy writers deeming him a 'sleeper' or a 'late round target'. He just isn't. The only scenario where he has a WR2 PPR year is if Alexander goes down and he gets a Harvin-like # of numbers, and is productive with said targets. Even with 120 targets, he could still be a WR3 because he isn't a good touchdown-scorer.

 

[kutta]

I've never seen someone be so down on a guy with a 10th round ADP. At this time in your draft you probably already have 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, and 1-2 QB's. Lava, I think you are going a bit overboard here. He's a guy some people want to take a chance on. You don't. Find another guy at that point. If we were talking about drafting him in the 6th round I'd understand your point. But the 10th round is starting to get to deep backup RB and WR 4 or 5. The price is still pretty low.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I've never seen someone be so down on a guy with a 10th round ADP. At this time in your draft you probably already have 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, and 1-2 QB's. Lava, I think you are going a bit overboard here. He's a guy some people want to take a chance on. You don't. Find another guy at that point. If we were talking about drafting him in the 6th round I'd understand your point. But the 10th round is starting to get to deep backup RB and WR 4 or 5. The price is still pretty low.

Right. The only reason it seems that I'm entrenched against this guy is that I have a message board full of people telling me that he is 'football fast' or that 'on film he looks amazing'. Sure, take a shot on him, but don't expect much. Also, I want like 5 RB's coming out of the first 9 rounds. There isn't room for a non-prospect.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

I've never seen someone be so down on a guy with a 10th round ADP. At this time in your draft you probably already have 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, and 1-2 QB's. Lava, I think you are going a bit overboard here. He's a guy some people want to take a chance on. You don't. Find another guy at that point. If we were talking about drafting him in the 6th round I'd understand your point. But the 10th round is starting to get to deep backup RB and WR 4 or 5. The price is still pretty low.

Right. The only reason it seems that I'm entrenched against this guy is that I have a message board full of people telling me that he is 'football fast' or that 'on film he looks amazing'. Sure, take a shot on him, but don't expect much. Also, I want like 5 RB's coming out of the first 9 rounds. There isn't room for a non-prospect.

I trust Greg Cosell breaking down a player than you. A bunch.

https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/51085891669737472

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I've never seen someone be so down on a guy with a 10th round ADP. At this time in your draft you probably already have 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, and 1-2 QB's. Lava, I think you are going a bit overboard here. He's a guy some people want to take a chance on. You don't. Find another guy at that point. If we were talking about drafting him in the 6th round I'd understand your point. But the 10th round is starting to get to deep backup RB and WR 4 or 5. The price is still pretty low.

Right. The only reason it seems that I'm entrenched against this guy is that I have a message board full of people telling me that he is 'football fast' or that 'on film he looks amazing'. Sure, take a shot on him, but don't expect much. Also, I want like 5 RB's coming out of the first 9 rounds. There isn't room for a non-prospect.

I trust Greg Cosell breaking down a player than you. A bunch.

https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/51085891669737472

Sure, why not? Cosell is a legend. Mason's highest career yardage total was 1,128, he never eclipsed double digit touchdowns, and had a singular 100 catch season. I would call Mason Vincent Brown's most reasonable upside. The very top of his range of outcomes.

 

[ldizzle]

I've never seen someone be so down on a guy with a 10th round ADP. At this time in your draft you probably already have 3-4 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, and 1-2 QB's. Lava, I think you are going a bit overboard here. He's a guy some people want to take a chance on. You don't. Find another guy at that point. If we were talking about drafting him in the 6th round I'd understand your point. But the 10th round is starting to get to deep backup RB and WR 4 or 5. The price is still pretty low.

Right. The only reason it seems that I'm entrenched against this guy is that I have a message board full of people telling me that he is 'football fast' or that 'on film he looks amazing'. Sure, take a shot on him, but don't expect much. Also, I want like 5 RB's coming out of the first 9 rounds. There isn't room for a non-prospect.

I trust Greg Cosell breaking down a player than you. A bunch.

https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/51085891669737472

Sure, why not? Cosell is a legend. Mason's highest career yardage total was 1,128, he never eclipsed double digit touchdowns, and had a singular 100 catch season. I would call Mason Vincent Brown's most reasonable upside. The very top of his range of outcomes.

Nope. His highest was 1303, which doesnt mean much anyways. And since when does having double digit touchdowns mean he cant have a top 30 season? You're acting like people view him as a wr1 not a wr2-3. Anyways Derrick Mason was a top 10 wr one year and a consistent wr2-3 for most of his career. But i guess you wouldn't want him on your team because he "only" had one season with 1300+ yards and never had double digit touchdowns.

 

[BoltBacker]

Which ADP we talking about here? I checked MFL for PPR and I agree that WR40-45 seems high. But he doesn't seem to be going there. Seems about 10-12 shots lower, around guys like Ruben Randle.

That's my confusion as well. The point of this thread seems to be that Brown is not a top-30 WR. I doesn't seem to me that many people(if anyone) is claiming he is a top-30 WR.

Mentioned in the piece, I was using FF Calculators ADP over the last 2 weeks.

Sorry, skimmed over that part.

So your question was really, "Why is Brown(ADP#43) being drafted as a top 30 WR?". Did you mean to type top 50 WR?

FWIW, I don't think Brown will finish a top 30 WR either. But I also don't think DeAndre Hopkins or Justin Blackmon will be either. But it has nothing to do with how fast they run.

 

[Aztec9er]

Vincent Brown looked flawless in the preseason. That is where the hype is coming from. He even looked amazing on the TD catch that snapped his ankle. All through camp Rivers was raving about him and they were connecting a lot. That means a lot. But of course doesn't mean everything. And what he did last year, doesn't mean he will continue where he left off. But he has the ability. And to the doubter who said he isn't athletic or explosive, you just lost credibility since it is obvious you never cared to check the guy out but yet venting about how is a bad player lol.

If you are in a 8-12 team league, ya you have no reason to draft him. But for me, I am in a 16 team league that starts 3 Wr's. Guys like him need to be on your bench.

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

He possesses the upside and has already exhibited the ability to succeed when given the opportunity.

I agree. Vincent Brown is a playmaker. And that is the kind of guy I want on my roster.

 

[ChainsawU]

Have you ever seen Vincent Brown actually play?