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As already mentioned in this thread, yeah. I'm just not going to bet on him to be the next Anquan Boldin, especially because Boldin has 3 inches and 20 pounds on him. I certainly see a possibility of a Brown breakout, but only if he force fed targets. He would be making history by posting a top 30 season. That's all I'm saying.
You are making a judgement on anonymous board posters because it differs from your own opinion. Lava is talking about facts, statistics and breaking historical records for Browns measurables. Brown has no chance of ever being top 30 in ff points by the end of week 16. None. Zero. Zilch.
In deep leagues, not any 1 guy is going to be the reason you win. It is everybody as a whole. In my 16 team league, if a WR just gave you 10 pts consistently, you were in great shape. In my league that would be 20yrds and a TD or 100yrds. If your WRs got close to that, you were set.
Something tells me you thought the same of Cecil Shorts this time last year. As with Laurent Robinson at this time in 2011. Most years some guy comes out of the woodwork and jumps into the top 30. That's one of the reasons our hobby is so great. This year that guy will be Vincent Brown. My prediction for 2013: 67 receptions 860 yards and 6 TD's. A top 30 finish in PPR leagues.
Seems curious, given that Brown didn't play due to injury. Is it solely due to Alexander and Allen? It's funny, because his posts don't seem to focus on that, but rather on his lack of speed and other physical measurables... which haven't changed.
You're absolutely right I changed my position. I wasn't aware of Brown's combine measureables at this point last year (I've learned quite a bit about fantasy over the last year) or the historical trend of receivers his size. It's very easy to let your eyes trick you, and I am just as susceptible to it as anyone else is.
Lacking speed means squat. Speed has nothing to do with catching and running an effective route. And those are two of Vincent Brown's best attributes. The guy is very smart, runs smooth and deceiving routes and catches the damn ball. Speed is the most overrated attribute in all of sports. The greatest WR and arguable one of the greatest players ever to play the game lacked speed. How did is career fair with that weakness? You don't need to been fast to burn, separate or deceive a defensive back. Jerry Rice at 4.7-4.8 made Deion (4.2-4.3) look stupid countless of times. Tim Brown is in the same boat. He is "slow" but he ran the proper routes and ran them effectively. He also caught the balls that were thrown to him or in his area. I am in no way comparing Vincent Brown to these players. I am just bring up a point that if you think Vincent Brown can't be a good WR because he lacks speed, well you'd got to be one of millions ignorant football fans. Now of course if Jerry Rice had all those measurables plus a 4.3-4.4 speed, he would have put up unearthly numbers. But he was still the greatest to ever play and just happened to be very "slow" in regards to his 40 and other wide receivers and defensive backs 40s.
Shorts ran sub-4.4 at his Pro Day.
He's also 5-11. If you want the Chargers WR who matches up to Rice it's Allen, not Brown.
I wan't making a comparison to Rice or Brown. I was making the comparison of Rice/Brown to the relevancy of speed as a deciding factor if a wr is good or not.
Combine numbers mean nothing now that these guys have nfl game film. That is where the story is told. Not in a combine where you run without a football in your hand, without equipment and without anyone chasing you. There are wr's who run 4.3-4.4 in the combine but for some reason they can't separate themselves from the DB's who have inferior speed measurables than they do. The 40 yard dash is one of the most misleading stats in the game. You have to dig deeper into it and apply it properly. And also understand that there is more to separating yourself in a route from a DB than just your straight line 40 speed. There is no tool that can measure those except for the human eye and game film.
Not a paradox at all. Read a little deeper. Speed isnt the deciding factor. It doesnt hurt to have speed. No one will deny that. But you don't have to have speed to be a great WR. Route running and catching the ball is what makes WR's great. And both of those have nothing to do with speed. So it is completely ignorant and stupid to write a wr off because he runs a 4.7-4.8, that's all I was saying. And it is completely ignorant and stupid to hype a player JUST because he ran a fast 40 at the combine without being covered, and with no pads on.
Right, and I've never done that. If you go back and read the original post, I was also underwhelmed with his college production compared to even other mediocre prospects. Somehow, this entire conversation has been made about combine numbers and that is really not it.
Wasn't directing it to any one person. And I got to see every one of Vincent browns college games from the sidelines. He was pretty damn good. But we lost him early his Jr year while he was leading the country.
Umm... you can end this thread now. I think your coat was pulled. You seen what everyone else seen when he played in the NFL.
That doesn't make any sense to me. You are arguing that he won't be a top 30 but he is being drafted as the 43rd wr? You seem to have a lot of irrational hate for the guy.As already mentioned in this thread, yeah. I'm just not going to bet on him to be the next Anquan Boldin, especially because Boldin has 3 inches and 20 pounds on him. I certainly see a possibility of a Brown breakout, but only if he force fed targets. He would be making history by posting a top 30 season. That's all I'm saying.
How was my coat pulled? I remember feeling that guy, I remember that night where he scored the touchdown and had the other one called back. Is it not possible to acquire new information and change your opinion? Isn't that what winning fantasy football players would do?
Obviously, we are drafting guys in the later rounds for upside. We want the guys who are going to break into the tops of their position. If that wasn't the case, we would all just handcuff all of our starting running backs and draft 2 tight ends. I don't see it as likely that Brown is able to accomplish this.That doesn't make any sense to me. You are arguing that he won't be a top 30 but he is being drafted as the 43rd wr? You seem to have a lot of irrational hate for the guy.As already mentioned in this thread, yeah. I'm just not going to bet on him to be the next Anquan Boldin, especially because Boldin has 3 inches and 20 pounds on him. I certainly see a possibility of a Brown breakout, but only if he force fed targets. He would be making history by posting a top 30 season. That's all I'm saying.
Yet, you suggested we draft Lance Moore instead. A guy we know isn't going to do this.Obviously, we are drafting guys in the later rounds for upside. We want the guys who are going to break into the tops of their position. If that wasn't the case, we would all just handcuff all of our starting running backs and draft 2 tight ends. I don't see it as likely that Brown is able to accomplish this.That doesn't make any sense to me. You are arguing that he won't be a top 30 but he is being drafted as the 43rd wr? You seem to have a lot of irrational hate for the guy.As already mentioned in this thread, yeah. I'm just not going to bet on him to be the next Anquan Boldin, especially because Boldin has 3 inches and 20 pounds on him. I certainly see a possibility of a Brown breakout, but only if he force fed targets. He would be making history by posting a top 30 season. That's all I'm saying.
It's not really new information. He had the same numbers when you watched that game. It's pretty clear that he's a competent NFL reciever with great hands. He looks better as a pro. No computer model you can create for college production make will project that as of now. Numbers are only one piece of the puzzle. Personally, I thought Brown had limited overall athleticism and that his body-type would lend itself to injury just looking at numbers. I'm still sceptical about him because of that and would gamble on a number of WRs ahead of Brown at his ADP. I only said your coat was pulled because even you get why people are optimistic. I see why as well.
You either were
or you are 
or both. It's really hard to believe that you made that post, basically saying what everyone in this thread is saying, then you read some combine numbers, and now you think the guy is a bum. It just doesn't add up.
Comparisons of Brown to Jerry Rice, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Anquan Boldin and Tim Brown are misguided.
D Alexander is A and everybody's sleeper V Brown.(B). What kills me is that Alexander, in addition to having every measurable, has dominated starters at the NFL level (AFTER all of his knee surgeries). Brown, not so much. Question is whether the knees will hold up. Answer is "who knows". But UNTIL the knees go, I don't see how anyone could get too excited about Brown OVER Alexander.
In post defending the possibility of a guy with poor measurables becoming a surprise hit, you pull out Shorts and Robinson? Shorts had solid measurables across the board with a bad-### 3 cone time. Robinson was basically a physical freak, running under 4.4 at the combine at 6'2".
I think what some fail to realize that there's very little difference when we're talking about a 4.7 guy and a 4.6, even 4.5 guy and that the combine 40 isn't always indicative of game speed. Do we ever see a WR get down in a three point track and field stance and sprint down the sidelines? It's a skill that plays such a small part in an NFL game - even a fly pattern doesn't 100% translate to a 40 yard dash - and most WRs don't run many fly patterns anyway.
I agree that folks get wrapped up in speed meaning everything, but folks on the other side also get wrapped up in (usually "timed") speed means nothing. I personally fall in the middle, but I generally agree with a previous poster that every great NFL receiver needs a "differentiater". It's OK to be slow, if you are really big. It's OK to be small, if you are extraordinarily fast. It's OK to be small and slow, IF you have extraordinary quickness and hands. But you obviously need SOMETHING or some combination of things that lets you beat the other guy.
Because a guy like Davone Bess would be a perennial Pro Bowl'er if he were a little bigger and faster.
There was no compensation pick since the Chargers gave him an original round tender and he wasn't drafted. No team wanted to bother trying to get him even for a measly $1.3M. That's how big of a risk he is.
Fair enough on the comp pick. But there is still the very real chance the Chargers would match a reasonable deal, so that does factor in to other teams' approaches. Still, you are right that no one felt he was worth the trouble at this time. We'll see what happens this year.
I never really understood this concern. You're afraid to make an offer because the other team might match it? So what?
Not afraid. Just wondering if it is worth the time. Team management resources are limited. Due diligence on the player (medical, personal, scouting, etc), fly guys around for interviews, write up a contract, get it approved, etc. All part of day to day operations, yes, but why do it if at 1.5M say if the team holding the rights is likely to just turn around and match. A lot easier to deal with an UFA where if you invest the time and effort to make a deal happen, it's actually a done deal. Nobody's is "afraid". It just a PITA that may very easily amount to nothing.
) based on what they MIGHT have perceived to be a very small chance of actually getting the guy. That's a huge difference.
How so? I posted the entire thing, including images. I could care less about hits.It's all about web-site hits.
What exactly is a joke about it? And I'd love to see a link to that 40 speed for Housh, I hadn't been able to find a #.
How does it not add up? Don't smart people process new information and make decisions accordingly? At this point last year, I wouldn't have been able to tell you that no WR Brown's size had posted a top 30 WR season. Wouldn't any reasonable person shift their opinion upon realizing the weight of that information?You either were
I do think that our evolution as football watchers should go the other way. Combine #s/measureables give us a starting point, and then revise as we watch the player. We shouldn't revise what we see based on measureable. There are plenty of reasons that field speed, agility etc can be better or worse than measured speed/agility. Always trust the film. ALWAYS.How does it not add up? Don't smart people process new information and make decisions accordingly? At this point last year, I wouldn't have been able to tell you that no WR Brown's size had posted a top 30 WR season. Wouldn't any reasonable person shift their opinion upon realizing the weight of that information?You either were
Not misguided at all, when the OP, Lava, states only 2 wrs slower than a 4.6, have been fantasy relavant.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=60321&draftyear=2001&genpos=WR
I tried that with Dexter McCluster, and it didn't work out so well. As far as Brown's NFL film, I don't think there's a sufficient enough sample size to make a conclusion, other than he's not a bust. So, for the most part, I defer to my pre-NFL analysis of him.
It is definitely a misguided comparison. It's like saying a boxer with slow feet can be a world champion, and then comparing a heavy-weight to a middle-weight. It's a lot easier to succeed while being slow when you're bigger than your competition. Guys like Rice, Housh, and Boldin are heavy-weights as far as WRs go, Brown is a middle-weight. This means Brown needs to be extraordinarily quick and fast in order to be elite. His measurables dictate that this will not happen. The best you can hope for is about where his ADP is right now ie WR43, and that means he is most likely being overhyped.
How do I not have credibility? I am consistently bringing facts and numbers into this conversation.
