Why are people still picking the Colts (1 Viewer)

[metoo]

Call me crazy, I like the Bungles in the AFC, with the Colts a close second. Carolina looks tough to beat in the NFC- but there are teams that might beat them- Seahawks, Bears, maybe even the Cowboys or Giants. A lot depends on Steve Smith's hammy- Hamstring injuries tend to linger, and without Smith the Panthers offense looks quite ordinary.

I can't see how at this point, they are not the favorite. I can only go by what I've seen in preseason, Colts can't run the ball. No running game equals no SB.

Yes, I would base everything off of the pre-season! With what we saw in the pre-season, the Skins and Steelers will be terrible this year! Both 0-4!!! Lookout below!Not everything, but the Colts running game sucks. Manning will put up nice numbers during the regular season, but not getting a quality rb will stop the Colt from going anywhere.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

A couple issues with Jacksonville:

1. They had a Krispy Kreme schedule last year, and played some good teams when their starting QB was out (Tommy Maddox, anyone?). This year's is quite a bit more difficult.

2. They really haven't improved much...sure they have a lot of young developing guys, but losing Jimmy Smith is gonna hurt as he was still a quality #1 last year. As of right now they don't have anyone like that. Additionally, they continually make the mistake of not trying to find a true feature back - Fragile Fred jumped the shark about 2 years ago, and none of their other guys left can take a regular pounding.

I personally see Denver and New England as the strongest AFC teams this year, then the Colts. Denver was up there last year, and added JWalk in place of the black hole of suck that was Ashley Lelie. The Pats now have a beastly front 7 again, plus a much-improved running game - well more than enough to make up for their WR questions.

The issue with the Colts is that they got worse while the above two teams got better. Losing Edge will legitimately hurt them, though not as much as people think. Their defense could very well regress a bit as well...defense is less consistent from year to year than offense. However, if one of their RBs turns out to be decent, and if their defense improves, they're the favorite to win it all IMO. I wouldn't bet on both things happening, though.

 

[SSOG]

Someone help me out and explain to me why it looks like the Jags were a 1 year wonder last season?

In 2004 they still had a shot at the playoffs in the last week and only missed the post season because Indy threw their last game. But they were 9-7 that year. It's not like they came from nowhere in 2005. The D is still good, maybe better, the offense is young but has a lot of talent. Yet almost no one thinks they'll be back in the postseason. Am I just a homer with delusions of granduer or are the Jags once again the small market bias poster children?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff.phpJacksonville was the 10th best team in the NFL, but only the 7th best team in the AFC last season- and that rating dropped dramatically if you removed the game they played against the Tommy Maddox Steelers. The year before, they were 14th. They've also regressed more than they've improved (with Jimmy Smith gone, they have no proven receiving threats at all). Oh, and their schedule will be a lot tougher.

I don't think Jacksonville will miss the playoffs because they're not one of the top 50% teams in the league... I think Jacksonville will miss the playoffs because the rest of the AFC is just brutal, and they're clearly a second-class, or even third-class team in that conference. They'd be one of the top-3 or 4 teams in the NFC, though.

 

[SSOG]

Fair points. I think that the rookie C. Jackson can certianly develop into a nice deap threat for them. You are probably right in that it won't likely be early in the year. If NE can make it inot the playoff hunt though, as they say... rookies are no longer rookies come playoff time.

Chad Jackson missed most of the preseason, so he's well behind the learning curve. I'm also a huge UF fan, and I can honestly say that I never once thought of Chad Jackson as a deep threat until he posted that incredible 40 time at the combine. The guy averaged less than 10 yards per reception last year.I hope Jackson succeeds and ends that stupid "Florida WRs are busts in the making" myth that sometimes surfaces, but I have to say, reasonably, I don't expect him to have much impact this season- playoffs or otherwise.

The playoffs are a looooooong time away. Missing the preseason will mean virtually nothing by then. Sure, that will impact his learning curve for earlier in the year, but we are talking about 4 solid months of football between now and then. I too saw Jackson play in college. That UF O just didn't take advantage of his deap abilities IMO. The kid posses great seperation skills (in college at least) and adjusts well to the ball. He has the second gear to maintain his speration and or extend it. You can't alwasy look at numbers, which undoubtably were not those of a deap threat in Jackson's for college. There's very little doubt in my mind that this kids got the ability to stretch the field in the right system.

Agree to disagree then. I strongly and firmly believe that if Chad Jackson didn't run what he ran at the combine, he would have been a 4th rounder at best. All of Gainesville was in SHOCK when he posted that time, and in even greater shock when he was being discussed as a consensus first-rounder and possibly the best WR in the class. If you're a stud, I feel like all of your fans aren't SHOCKED by the suggestion that you could possibly go in the first round.Also, I think if you look at rookie WRs in the playoffs, you'll find that, historically, they're still very much rookies. While they might have actual NFL experience at that point, they have absolutely zero playoff experience.

 

[jurb26]

Agree to disagree then. I strongly and firmly believe that if Chad Jackson didn't run what he ran at the combine, he would have been a 4th rounder at best. All of Gainesville was in SHOCK when he posted that time, and in even greater shock when he was being discussed as a consensus first-rounder and possibly the best WR in the class. If you're a stud, I feel like all of your fans aren't SHOCKED by the suggestion that you could possibly go in the first round.Also, I think if you look at rookie WRs in the playoffs, you'll find that, historically, they're still very much rookies. While they might have actual NFL experience at that point, they have absolutely zero playoff experience.

I see him a lot like Troy Williamson. Right or wrong.

 

[Whizzinator]

Not that the Colts defense is fixed by any means, but I venture to guess that Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Bob Sanders would disagree with the comment about no Colt willing to "rip your head off" for the ball.

They would, but they'd be wrong. The Colts have had good defensive talent the last few years, but Dungy's scheme focuses on speed guys and that has a cost. Freeney is a good example---he's a great player and every other team would love to have him but "tough" and "will rip your head off" are not things that apply to him. You can run at him--or over him---and you can bully him. Sanders might be one, though, who I'd agree on. Bottom line is the same, though, the Colts have to prove they are tough on the lines and they have to do it against good teams---they haven't done it in the past. Until they do that I think they'll run into someone in the playoffs who is able to exploit that.