Why Brodie Croyle Should Be Given A Free Pass For Last Year (2 Viewers)

[JGalligan]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six major losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

Now while I’m the first to admit that Croyle looked pretty bad regardless of who he played, isn’t it worth taking into account that every single one of his losses came against a highly skilled passing defense? Plus, he was practically a rookie last year!

Not only did he not have his RB (and Rockafella fan) Larry Johnson on the field to help take the focus off him, he was also playing behind an incredibly suspect offensive line that is ranked near the bottom of nearly every offensive line ranking list out there. Add the two together and what do you get? That's right, the stirring of something in your stomach. That is what's called sympathy and you may be starting to feel it for the Chiefs young QB for the very first time.

I’m not trying to say that the kid is going to go on and have a Hall of Fame career and yes, the offensive line still has issues, but with Larry Johnson back behind him isn’t it fair to cut him a break for last year and wait to see what he does this season? Am I asking too much? Am I missing anything here? Do I ask too many questions?

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year.

Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.

Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

 

[AnonymousBob]

I don't have a response at this time but I wanted to say nice job on a well thought out post.

This board could use more JGalligans.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I don't have a response at this time but I wanted to say nice job on a well thought out post.This board could use more JGalligans.

He is MONEY!

 

[JGalligan]

I don't have a response at this time but I wanted to say nice job on a well thought out post.This board could use more JGalligans.

I don't have a response at this time but I wanted to say nice job on a well thought out post.This board could use more JGalligans.

He is MONEY!

Thank you, thank you, I try!

 

[Banger]

I agree that it was a nearly impossible situation for him (or any other rookie Qb to succeed) last year and he was essentially thrown to the wolves. There is room for more optimism this year but he still has to play Den, SD and Oak 6x this year.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

1200 and 6 TD's against those 6 guys ain't bad

if he bumps that up to 225 ypg and 1.3 ypg you get 3600 and 21...

 

[Gr00vus]

I agree that it was a nearly impossible situation for him (or any other rookie Qb to succeed) last year and he was essentially thrown to the wolves. There is room for more optimism this year but he still has to play Den, SD and Oak 6x this year.

He also still needs to learn how to read defenses and make accurate throws - until that happens who's playing with/against him is secondary (apart from the offensive line which isn't in terrific shape right now either).He's a guy I'm planning on avoiding this year and I don't think he represents value at all - let someone else suffer the growing pains and revisit his situation next season.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Croyle has one of the best arms in the league, and I dont think he shies away from challenges, but man, he looks like a little kid when he absorbs any contact. A good tug on the sleeve takes him down. He'll be like Rex Grossman without the panic attacks, which is good enough to start for the Chiefs (and Bears), but that's about it.

 

[saintfool]

I agree that it was a nearly impossible situation for him (or any other rookie Qb to succeed) last year and he was essentially thrown to the wolves. There is room for more optimism this year but he still has to play Den, SD and Oak 6x this year.

He also still needs to learn how to read defenses and make accurate throws - until that happens who's playing with/against him is secondary (apart from the offensive line which isn't in terrific shape right now either).He's a guy I'm planning on avoiding this year and I don't think he represents value at all - let someone else suffer the growing pains and revisit his situation next season.

interesting. in a draft situation, would you rather go with matt ryan or croyle?

 

[Gr00vus]

I agree that it was a nearly impossible situation for him (or any other rookie Qb to succeed) last year and he was essentially thrown to the wolves. There is room for more optimism this year but he still has to play Den, SD and Oak 6x this year.

He also still needs to learn how to read defenses and make accurate throws - until that happens who's playing with/against him is secondary (apart from the offensive line which isn't in terrific shape right now either).He's a guy I'm planning on avoiding this year and I don't think he represents value at all - let someone else suffer the growing pains and revisit his situation next season.

interesting. in a draft situation, would you rather go with matt ryan or croyle?

That's a tough one (doesn't really matter if it's redraft or dynasty either, does it?). I'm sorry I missed last weeks Falcon's game, because it was the first chance to see Ryan in the NFL, but from reports it sounds to me like he's much further along than Croyle was at the same stage of his career (possibly even now). They're in very similar situations in regards to the talent around them, though you have to give a plus to Croyle as he has Gonzales. But will Gonzales be there in Croyle's "prime?" Probably not. Croyle will start, probably until he gets hurt or completely melts down. Ryan will probably start somewhere down the road this season, but if somehow the Falcons come out of the gate and win a few Redman could hang on to the job for longer than expected. If the Falcons are smart they'll let Ryan hold the clip board until they're confident that the offensive line can keep him off his back. I hate seeing inexperienced QBs rushed into starting just because the team's losing games - you're still not going to make the playoffs and you're usually going to hurt the kid's development that way.I'm hesitant to give a definitive answer due to my lack of knowledge about Ryan, but if pressed I'd say Croyle's a better bet this season, Ryan's a better bet long term.

If you have to rely heavily on either one in FF this season you're either totally stacked everywhere else, or your team has major problems as I wouldn't figure either one to approach top 15, and probably not top 20 QB.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I'm hesitant to give a definitive answer due to my lack of knowledge about Ryan, but if pressed I'd say Croyle's a better bet this season, Ryan's a better bet long term.

Agree with this statement, which is why I think I would go Ryan. I'm with you, I know nothing about Ryan. But by the time I'm pondering this question hopefully I'm looking for a deeeeeeeeep qb2 or a qb3. At that spot I'm hoping for someone with the potential to make some noise in the future, not in the next week or two. So I'd go potential more than reality here no matter how far fetched it may be. I simply don't see any upside to Croyle or that offense, I think Atlanta has the better chance to be successful in the passing game. To the OP Croyle didn't have to face San Diego at all last year, he won't find much success there as the Chargers are probably the best defensive unit in that division and IMO won't be slowing down much this year.Nice, thorough post though.

 

[chadjohnsonfan]

I know its just pre-season, but Croyle looked really good against the Bears in their first game this year.

He hit guys right on the money on a few plays and converted on a third and long on their first drive.

I've never considered myself a real Cheifs fan, but I do get to watch them a lot here in Missouri and from what I can tell, they will be MUCH better than last year. 7-9 wouldn't surprise me one bit. They've got a lot of pieces being put into place on both sides of the ball. They are still very young, but LJ, Gonzo and Bowe are a nice trio of skill players. Also, their defense will be better, even without Jared Allen.

I'd say Croyle's situation starting this year is much better than it was when he was starting games last year.

 

[JKL]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six starting losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

. . .

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. . . .

Just FYI, He started a game against Detroit but left with injury, IIRC, down 21-0, and Huard almost led the Chiefs back for a win. He didn't start two games against Denver, he replaced Huard in the second half in the game at Arrowhead.Your pass defense rankings, what metric are you using?

It is a very bad line for a first year starter. I'm doing some research for an upcoming blog post on PFR, not on Croyle, but looking at Joey Harrington. I don't have the specific numbers in front of me, but the only guy who turned out to be what you might consider a success, who threw 200+ passes for the first time by age 25 in a non-rookie year (like Croyle last year), and had a worse Yards Per Attempt was Steve DeBerg, it was somewhere around 5.2 per attempt in 1978 as a second year player. Wade Wilson threw just under 200 passes and posted a similar YPA to Croyle as well. And that's it. QB's who become successful may throw alot of int's early, but they don't simply not produce in terms of yards like Croyle.

 

[JGalligan]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six starting losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

. . .

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. . . .

Just FYI, He started a game against Detroit but left with injury, IIRC, down 21-0, and Huard almost led the Chiefs back for a win. He didn't start two games against Denver, he replaced Huard in the second half in the game at Arrowhead.Your pass defense rankings, what metric are you using?

It is a very bad line for a first year starter. I'm doing some research for an upcoming blog post on PFR, not on Croyle, but looking at Joey Harrington. I don't have the specific numbers in front of me, but the only guy who turned out to be what you might consider a success, who threw 200+ passes for the first time by age 25 in a non-rookie year (like Croyle last year), and had a worse Yards Per Attempt was Steve DeBerg, it was somewhere around 5.2 per attempt in 1978 as a second year player. Wade Wilson threw just under 200 passes and posted a similar YPA to Croyle as well. And that's it. QB's who become successful may throw alot of int's early, but they don't simply not produce in terms of yards like Croyle.

First off, thank you for the starting information. The post is all edited so it's now factual. As for the pass rankings, I used passing yards given up per game. I checked total passing yards given up for the whole season too, and all of the defenses were still in the top ten. With the information you gave, I suppose it is a pretty bad YPA, but all the other stuff I don't see as a cause for concern. It may be low YPA and he might have to learn to be a bit more aggressive, but is a low YPA this early really going to predict how good he's going to be for his career? Again, I wasn't saying he necessarily is going to be a quality QB, but only that maybe we should wait to see what he does with some a season complete with in-game experience finally under his belt.

Good stats, though. It sounds like your going to have a great post.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Excellent post JGalligan and great thread.

A few additional reasons for optimism with Croyle/KC.

1. KC also has an easy schedule this year, in the mid-to-lower 20s I believe.

2. Dwayne Bowe missed the first 10 days of camp last year in a holdout and almost hit 1000 yards receiving as a rookie. Also, Croyle and D-Bowe are rooming together, which can't hurt. Add in the steady Gonzalez and you have 2 athletic 6'4" red zone targets and a healthy Larry Johnson.

3. Regarding Larry Johnson, he was also a hold out and not in great shape. LJ faced a murderer's row of rush defenses early last year and struggled as could be expected. Once they got beyond those tough games, he was coming on very strong and then got hurt. He looks healthy, lean and rested - which is a side benefit of last year's injury.

 

[renesauz]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out...........................Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year. Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

Very , but it's of very little relevance to most of us. While I agree with your overall analyses, I don't see much cause for optimism this year. While he is certainly relevant and roster-worthy in dynasty, I can think of 3-5 non-starters who show at least as much, or more, promise.In redraft, I still can't see him any higher then QB26 or so, AT BEST, meaning he's only roster worthy in start 2 QB leagues.So....sure, he can have a pass for last year. He'll need one this year too though!

 

[JGalligan]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out...........................Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year. Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

Very , but it's of very little relevance to most of us. While I agree with your overall analyses, I don't see much cause for optimism this year. While he is certainly relevant and roster-worthy in dynasty, I can think of 3-5 non-starters who show at least as much, or more, promise.In redraft, I still can't see him any higher then QB26 or so, AT BEST, meaning he's only roster worthy in start 2 QB leagues.So....sure, he can have a pass for last year. He'll need one this year too though!

Very true. I guess the main thing I just wanted to get in the open is the defenses he played during nearly all his games last year. Very tough. And I agree about the other QB's as well, but at least now we know to keep an extra eye on his progression this year.

 

[JGalligan]

Excellent post JGalligan and great thread. A few additional reasons for optimism with Croyle/KC.1. KC also has an easy schedule this year, in the mid-to-lower 20s I believe. 2. Dwayne Bowe missed the first 10 days of camp last year in a holdout and almost hit 1000 yards receiving as a rookie. Also, Croyle and D-Bowe are rooming together, which can't hurt. Add in the steady Gonzalez and you have 2 athletic 6'4" red zone targets and a healthy Larry Johnson. 3. Regarding Larry Johnson, he was also a hold out and not in great shape. LJ faced a murderer's row of rush defenses early last year and struggled as could be expected. Once they got beyond those tough games, he was coming on very strong and then got hurt. He looks healthy, lean and rested - which is a side benefit of last year's injury.

Agreed on all three points. Bowe's value in particular would go up if we learn that Croyle's poor 2007 was a result of too much too soon. The only worry on the offense, if you give Croyle a pass for last year of course, is the O-line. But who knows, they could work out too. Crazier things have happened.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I know its just pre-season, but Croyle looked really good against the Bears in their first game this year.He hit guys right on the money on a few plays and converted on a third and long on their first drive.

I watched this game twice. I was surprised to see that he did look pretty good vs. the Bears #1 D on the first drive of the game, which took 12 or so minutes IIRC. However, the Bears were playing vanilla D and KC wasn't holding anything back. The Bears then forced 4 straight 3 and outs IIRC.This thread does give me some optimism and I would now consider him when I'm looking for my #3 QB-though I'll look elsewhere first.

 

[The Jacket]

However, the Bears were playing vanilla D and KC wasn't holding anything back.

The Bears were playing in a pretty standard cover-2 shell. The Chiefs were running a very simple offense without any motioning and formation variation. It is what it is, and Croyle, when given just a second or two of time, picked it apart. His numbers would've been better had the WRs not slipped down on that dodgy turf twice. Not to say he'll do it in the regular season but he did indeed look pretty good. Some refreshing posting in this thread. I'm not saying Croyle will be any good, and he really needs to prove he can stay healthy for 16 games (that's the most important thing), but the guy can throw the football really, really well. I've been surprised at how few people seem to appreciate this. It's his decision-making, inconsistency and injury issues that hold him back. And I guess his size, which relates to the injury concerns. If he can improve on some of those things (he WAS a first-year starter, after all; a break he never seems to get with the general fan), he could actually be a really nice surprise. Although it's venturing off-topic, one thing's for sure: D-Bowe owners will like Croyle, because Croyle loves to look for D-Bowe. A lot.

 

[Gr00vus]

Although it's venturing off-topic, one thing's for sure: D-Bowe owners will like Croyle, because Croyle loves to look for D-Bowe. A lot.

Bowe is a creature - I'm hoping to draft him even though I don't like Croyle much.

 

[TidesofWar]

As an Alabama Alum and Season Ticket Holder, I think I know a bit about Brodie

He is a good guy, comes from a super high character family with deep humility and religious beliefs

Brodie has a superb arm, but has never been super dedicated in the two rooms that separate the stars from the also-rans - the weight and film rooms. He is not Peyton Manning or Tim Tebow.

Brodie relied on his arm to make plays, and that does work in the NFL like it does in college. IF he improves his ability to read the defense, and his understanding of his reads and checkdown, and can stya away from injury - I think Brodie can be a fairly good NFL QB. As noted, he has the arm, and also still has LJ, Gonzo, and an emerging Bowe as weapons.

He also still has the offensive line concerns as well, but I think you will be able to get a read this year on hopw the rest of his career will go.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out...........................Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year. Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

Very , but it's of very little relevance to most of us. While I agree with your overall analyses, I don't see much cause for optimism this year. While he is certainly relevant and roster-worthy in dynasty, I can think of 3-5 non-starters who show at least as much, or more, promise.In redraft, I still can't see him any higher then QB26 or so, AT BEST, meaning he's only roster worthy in start 2 QB leagues.So....sure, he can have a pass for last year. He'll need one this year too though!

Very true. I guess the main thing I just wanted to get in the open is the defenses he played during nearly all his games last year. Very tough. And I agree about the other QB's as well, but at least now we know to keep an extra eye on his progression this year.

The stat number that really stood out to me was: The Chiefs lost every game in which Croyle threw a pass. I can say that having Devard Darling as WR2 will not help any. The Chief OLine is still in transition from the Vermiel years. Brodie Croyle does have a strong arm, but he is erratic and indecisive. In addition, he might have trouble staying healthy in his pro career, especially behind that OL. The entire team is one in transition so it could be rough for a while. I do expect Thigpen to see action this season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line.

I think you mean 5.5 yards per attempt. 5.5 yards per completion would be awful

 

[Northbound Train]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six major losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

Now while I’m the first to admit that Croyle looked pretty bad regardless of who he played, isn’t it worth taking into account that every single one of his losses came against a highly skilled passing defense? Plus, he was practically a rookie last year!

Not only did he not have his RB (and Rockafella fan) Larry Johnson on the field to help take the focus off him, he was also playing behind an incredibly suspect offensive line that is ranked near the bottom of nearly every offensive line ranking list out there. Add the two together and what do you get? That's right, the stirring of something in your stomach. That is what's called sympathy and you may be starting to feel it for the Chiefs young QB for the very first time.

I’m not trying to say that the kid is going to go on and have a Hall of Fame career and yes, the offensive line still has issues, but with Larry Johnson back behind him isn’t it fair to cut him a break for last year and wait to see what he does this season? Am I asking too much? Am I missing anything here? Do I ask too many questions?

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year.

Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.

Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

 

[JKL]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six starting losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

. . .

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. . . .

Just FYI, He started a game against Detroit but left with injury, IIRC, down 21-0, and Huard almost led the Chiefs back for a win. He didn't start two games against Denver, he replaced Huard in the second half in the game at Arrowhead.Your pass defense rankings, what metric are you using?

It is a very bad line for a first year starter. I'm doing some research for an upcoming blog post on PFR, not on Croyle, but looking at Joey Harrington. I don't have the specific numbers in front of me, but the only guy who turned out to be what you might consider a success, who threw 200+ passes for the first time by age 25 in a non-rookie year (like Croyle last year), and had a worse Yards Per Attempt was Steve DeBerg, it was somewhere around 5.2 per attempt in 1978 as a second year player. Wade Wilson threw just under 200 passes and posted a similar YPA to Croyle as well. And that's it. QB's who become successful may throw alot of int's early, but they don't simply not produce in terms of yards like Croyle.

First off, thank you for the starting information. The post is all edited so it's now factual. As for the pass rankings, I used passing yards given up per game. I checked total passing yards given up for the whole season too, and all of the defenses were still in the top ten. With the information you gave, I suppose it is a pretty bad YPA, but all the other stuff I don't see as a cause for concern. It may be low YPA and he might have to learn to be a bit more aggressive, but is a low YPA this early really going to predict how good he's going to be for his career? Again, I wasn't saying he necessarily is going to be a quality QB, but only that maybe we should wait to see what he does with some a season complete with in-game experience finally under his belt.

Good stats, though. It sounds like your going to have a great post.

Since all teams play the same number of games, they should have the same ranking. But total passing yards or passing yards per game is not a good measure of the quality of a pass defense. Bad teams will tend to have fewer passes thrown against them, because the teams facing them are usually winning, and will run the ball more often. Here are the rankings of the defenses Croyle faced, using net yards per attempt [(passing yards allowed - sack yards)/(pass attempts + sacks)]Tennessee- 3rd (5.2)

Indianapolis - 4th (5.3)

Denver - 19th (6.3)

NY Jets - 20th (6.3)

Detroit - 27th (6.5)

Oakland - 29th (6.7)

He actually faced four teams that were below average in pass defense from a yards per play perspective, but teams that faced fewer passes because they were losing teams. Oakland was really good at interception rate (thanks to Asomoghu) but not very good at preventing yards. They also gave up 4.8 yards per rush, which is why teams passed on them infrequently. Why risk throwing a pick, even if you can pick up yards, when you can pick up yards at will on the ground and are facing a below average offense?

Back to Croyle though, I weighted his pass attempts by opponent yards per attempt average. A league average QB would have thrown for 6.41 yards per attempt with Croyle's number of throws against each opponent, and the league average in 2007 was 6.4, so he faced a roughly league average slate.

If I were to play devil's advocate on Croyle's behalf, the biggest reasons why he may buck the numbers are as follows:

1) sample size- only 224 throws

2) injury- before leaving the 11/25 Oakland game with injury and missing the next game against SD, Croyle's yards per attempt was 6.33. That's not great, but it is within acceptable range for a guy playing on a bad offense early in his career, and is similar to what guys like Aikman, Ken Anderson, Mark Brunell, Archie Manning, Don Majkowski, and Doug Williams put up in their first opportunities. After returning, he averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, which is dreadful. If he came back to soon from injury and injuries were still causing those numbers, then there is still hope.

I don't however, give as much credence to the "bad offense" factor. Yes, the quality of teammates affects numbers. But lots of young QB's play on bad offenses early in their careers, and quarterbacks who went on to have success did more with similarly bad offensive units than Croyle did last year--they find a way to generally average between 6.0 and 6.5 yards per attempt.

 

[JKL]

I'm a Chiefs fan by the way, so I hope Croyle does buck the trends. I would love for him to turn it around and be a success. My position on 2008 is that I don't have a problem with them deciding to go with Croyle, because there are so many other needs on this team after years of bad drafting during the Vermeil era. I'm fine with them addressing the lines with Albert and Dorsey, and depth at other positions in this year's draft.

What I don't want the Chiefs to do, though, is mistakenly believe that it takes years to find out if a quarterback can play, and go into 2009 with him at QB if he hasn't made a jump in production. If, and I'll repeat if, Croyle doesn't make significant improvements early in 2008 in his productivity per play (say to about 6.5 per attempt after 6 games), then its likely not going to happen. I want them to be willing to move on, and give Thigpen a try to rule him in or out as well, if Croyle doesn't improve dramatically early in 2008.

 

[JGalligan]

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six starting losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

. . .

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. . . .

Just FYI, He started a game against Detroit but left with injury, IIRC, down 21-0, and Huard almost led the Chiefs back for a win. He didn't start two games against Denver, he replaced Huard in the second half in the game at Arrowhead.Your pass defense rankings, what metric are you using?

It is a very bad line for a first year starter. I'm doing some research for an upcoming blog post on PFR, not on Croyle, but looking at Joey Harrington. I don't have the specific numbers in front of me, but the only guy who turned out to be what you might consider a success, who threw 200+ passes for the first time by age 25 in a non-rookie year (like Croyle last year), and had a worse Yards Per Attempt was Steve DeBerg, it was somewhere around 5.2 per attempt in 1978 as a second year player. Wade Wilson threw just under 200 passes and posted a similar YPA to Croyle as well. And that's it. QB's who become successful may throw alot of int's early, but they don't simply not produce in terms of yards like Croyle.

First off, thank you for the starting information. The post is all edited so it's now factual. As for the pass rankings, I used passing yards given up per game. I checked total passing yards given up for the whole season too, and all of the defenses were still in the top ten. With the information you gave, I suppose it is a pretty bad YPA, but all the other stuff I don't see as a cause for concern. It may be low YPA and he might have to learn to be a bit more aggressive, but is a low YPA this early really going to predict how good he's going to be for his career? Again, I wasn't saying he necessarily is going to be a quality QB, but only that maybe we should wait to see what he does with some a season complete with in-game experience finally under his belt.

Good stats, though. It sounds like your going to have a great post.

Since all teams play the same number of games, they should have the same ranking. But total passing yards or passing yards per game is not a good measure of the quality of a pass defense. Bad teams will tend to have fewer passes thrown against them, because the teams facing them are usually winning, and will run the ball more often. Here are the rankings of the defenses Croyle faced, using net yards per attempt [(passing yards allowed - sack yards)/(pass attempts + sacks)]Tennessee- 3rd (5.2)

Indianapolis - 4th (5.3)

Denver - 19th (6.3)

NY Jets - 20th (6.3)

Detroit - 27th (6.5)

Oakland - 29th (6.7)

He actually faced four teams that were below average in pass defense from a yards per play perspective, but teams that faced fewer passes because they were losing teams. Oakland was really good at interception rate (thanks to Asomoghu) but not very good at preventing yards. They also gave up 4.8 yards per rush, which is why teams passed on them infrequently. Why risk throwing a pick, even if you can pick up yards, when you can pick up yards at will on the ground and are facing a below average offense?

Back to Croyle though, I weighted his pass attempts by opponent yards per attempt average. A league average QB would have thrown for 6.41 yards per attempt with Croyle's number of throws against each opponent, and the league average in 2007 was 6.4, so he faced a roughly league average slate.

If I were to play devil's advocate on Croyle's behalf, the biggest reasons why he may buck the numbers are as follows:

1) sample size- only 224 throws

2) injury- before leaving the 11/25 Oakland game with injury and missing the next game against SD, Croyle's yards per attempt was 6.33. That's not great, but it is within acceptable range for a guy playing on a bad offense early in his career, and is similar to what guys like Aikman, Ken Anderson, Mark Brunell, Archie Manning, Don Majkowski, and Doug Williams put up in their first opportunities. After returning, he averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, which is dreadful. If he came back to soon from injury and injuries were still causing those numbers, then there is still hope.

I don't however, give as much credence to the "bad offense" factor. Yes, the quality of teammates affects numbers. But lots of young QB's play on bad offenses early in their careers, and quarterbacks who went on to have success did more with similarly bad offensive units than Croyle did last year--they find a way to generally average between 6.0 and 6.5 yards per attempt.

Ah, good points about the passing defense. It makes sense, thanks for explaining it. I'll definitely be factoring in that those types of things in the future.I definitely can see why the "bad offense" factor can be explained away. But I suppose in this case, it's a bad offensive line. I would imagine that an O-Line's performance would play a significantly larger role in a young QB's play than what kind of talent he had around him. This could actually be going in an interesting direction..

How many great QB's who started off their career with a poor offensive line are there and what impact did not having competent blocking have on their early numbers?

To the Pro Football Reference Mobile!!

 

[JGalligan]

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per completion and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line.

I think you mean 5.5 yards per attempt. 5.5 yards per completion would be awful

Ahh, your right. Good eye, good eye! :IBTL:

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Croyle has one of the best arms in the league, and I dont think he shies away from challenges, but man, he looks like a little kid when he absorbs any contact. A good tug on the sleeve takes him down. He'll be like Rex Grossman without the panic attacks, which is good enough to start for the Chiefs (and Bears), but that's about it.

What's worse is that KC has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. As much as I like a guy like Bowe, I just wonder how much better he can do than last year in this offense when you have a guy like Tony Gonzalez who will gobble up 90 plus receptions.If a free pass means it's OK and draft him with confidence, I'm not buying. I'm all for looking for sleepers but I don't see it here.

 

[JGalligan]

Croyle has one of the best arms in the league, and I dont think he shies away from challenges, but man, he looks like a little kid when he absorbs any contact. A good tug on the sleeve takes him down. He'll be like Rex Grossman without the panic attacks, which is good enough to start for the Chiefs (and Bears), but that's about it.

What's worse is that KC has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. As much as I like a guy like Bowe, I just wonder how much better he can do than last year in this offense when you have a guy like Tony Gonzalez who will gobble up 90 plus receptions.If a free pass means it's OK and draft him with confidence, I'm not buying. I'm all for looking for sleepers but I don't see it here.

No, a free pass means we stop acting convinced he's going to be a horrible QB. I don't know about everyone else but lots of things I've heard online as well as from friends, family and co-workers is that he'll never amount to anything at all. I just thought it was a questionable conclusion when he hasn't even started a full seasons worth of games yet.

 

[corpcow]

I agree that it was a nearly impossible situation for him (or any other rookie Qb to succeed) last year and he was essentially thrown to the wolves. There is room for more optimism this year but he still has to play Den, SD and Oak 6x this year.

He also still needs to learn how to read defenses and make accurate throws - until that happens who's playing with/against him is secondary (apart from the offensive line which isn't in terrific shape right now either).He's a guy I'm planning on avoiding this year and I don't think he represents value at all - let someone else suffer the growing pains and revisit his situation next season.

The biggest change (aside from a hopefully improved OL if Albert can stay healthy) is Chan Gailey. He's a real OC, actually knows what he's doing, and apparently also simplified some of the reads to help Croyle a bit more.I'm not sure he's useful except in redraft except in 2 QB leagues, but he's certainly one of the cheapest starting options out there in dynasty.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Croyle has one of the best arms in the league, and I dont think he shies away from challenges, but man, he looks like a little kid when he absorbs any contact. A good tug on the sleeve takes him down. He'll be like Rex Grossman without the panic attacks, which is good enough to start for the Chiefs (and Bears), but that's about it.

What's worse is that KC has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. As much as I like a guy like Bowe, I just wonder how much better he can do than last year in this offense when you have a guy like Tony Gonzalez who will gobble up 90 plus receptions.If a free pass means it's OK and draft him with confidence, I'm not buying. I'm all for looking for sleepers but I don't see it here.

No, a free pass means we stop acting convinced he's going to be a horrible QB. I don't know about everyone else but lots of things I've heard online as well as from friends, family and co-workers is that he'll never amount to anything at all. I just thought it was a questionable conclusion when he hasn't even started a full seasons worth of games yet.

They need to improve their offensive line to give the guy a fighting chance. As far as never amounting to anything at all, he'll be able to attend his high school reunions and tell people he's started as a QB in the NFL, I doubt that falls under the category of a failure.I'm not convinced he's going to be horrible, I just don't think KC has the horses in the trenches and at this point, I don't feel that Croyle is any better than mediocre.Usually a below average offensive line with a mediocre QB doesn't add up to much but he'll have this year again to show improvement if he can.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=534

I used ANY/A, which is similar to what JKL used. I know he likes NY/A or just Y/A better than ANY/A for projection purposes, and he's probably right. That being said, adjusted net yards per pass attempt is still pretty useful.

I've got Croyle as facing a slightly harder than average schedule last year, but even after adjusting for SOS, Croyle ranks near the very bottom. On the other hand, so do Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson and Trent Edwards. So if you believe the book isn't nearly closed on those guys -- and I don't think it is -- then I think Croyle's performance doesn't look so bad. It was better than Marc Bulger's last year, and not too far behind Eli Manning's.

 

[JGalligan]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=534

I used ANY/A, which is similar to what JKL used. I know he likes NY/A or just Y/A better than ANY/A for projection purposes, and he's probably right. That being said, adjusted net yards per pass attempt is still pretty useful.

I've got Croyle as facing a slightly harder than average schedule last year, but even after adjusting for SOS, Croyle ranks near the very bottom. On the other hand, so do Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson and Trent Edwards. So if you believe the book isn't nearly closed on those guys -- and I don't think it is -- then I think Croyle's performance doesn't look so bad. It was better than Marc Bulger's last year, and not too far behind Eli Manning's.

Thank you!

 

[Interseptopus]

I'll admit, you've made a believer out of me JGalligan.

I don't think Croyle will be a top 15 QB, but prior to reading this I viewed him as ranked 28-32.

I think it's fair to say that he had a very tough schedule to face last year and that we shouldn't write him off 100%. Now, expecting him to out-perform guys like Delhomme, Favre, Garrard is a stretch, but it's not inconceivable that he would finish ranked with Kitna, Garcia, T. Jackson (near the 20s), which might make him a legitimate QB2.

According to FBG SOS, he makes the ideal P. Manning backup- week 4 having an 18.6 matchup (against DEN, which puzzles me).

With LJ back, I think it's safe to say Croyle will post better numbers than he did last year. He'll go through his growing pains and might even develop this year into a steady QB. KC had Trent Green before all this, and he was nothing flashy- he controlled the offense and was a solid QB. Croyle's upside leaves him at just that, a solid QB who can control the offense.

Drew Brees didn't really develop until after a few years starting, Croyle could be on the same pace... although I don't believe Croyle is the next Drew Brees

 

[LionsFan78]

Not sure where the hell you came from JGalligan....but on your posts.

Great stuff

 

[JKL]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=534

I used ANY/A, which is similar to what JKL used. I know he likes NY/A or just Y/A better than ANY/A for projection purposes, and he's probably right. That being said, adjusted net yards per pass attempt is still pretty useful.

I've got Croyle as facing a slightly harder than average schedule last year, but even after adjusting for SOS, Croyle ranks near the very bottom. On the other hand, so do Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson and Trent Edwards. So if you believe the book isn't nearly closed on those guys -- and I don't think it is -- then I think Croyle's performance doesn't look so bad. It was better than Marc Bulger's last year, and not too far behind Eli Manning's.

Thank you!

There is a difference between "not closing the book" on a player and "giving him a free pass for last season". I'm fine with the former and disagree with the latter. Because of last year, while the book may not be closed, his leash should be a lot shorter than if we had no info on him whatsoever. Edwards btw was a true rookie, and there is a significant difference. Jackson's yards per attempt were significantly better than Croyle, his problem was a higher interception rate. Clemens and Croyle, tomay-to, to-mah-to. It's great being a fan of the Chiefs and Jets.

The fact that Croyle didn't throw interceptions at a high rate isn't a positive, when its coupled with no production. Here are the quarterbacks who had the lowest int% in a single season at age 25 or younger (1.9% or lower):

1. Brian Griese 2000

2. Ken O'Brien 1985

3. Byron Leftwich 2005

4. Drew Brees 2004

5. Rick Mirer 1995

6. Tony Eason 1984

7. Bernie Kosar 1986

8. Mike Vick 2002

9. Chris Miller 1989

That's not a great list, considering we are looking at the best of the last 30 years in a particular performance category. Those that turned out to have good careers on that list were also good in other areas, so knowing they were good at avoiding int's doesn't add anything. Rick Mirer not throwing interceptions on the other hand, didn't make him a good quarterback.

 

[JGalligan]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=534

I used ANY/A, which is similar to what JKL used. I know he likes NY/A or just Y/A better than ANY/A for projection purposes, and he's probably right. That being said, adjusted net yards per pass attempt is still pretty useful.

I've got Croyle as facing a slightly harder than average schedule last year, but even after adjusting for SOS, Croyle ranks near the very bottom. On the other hand, so do Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson and Trent Edwards. So if you believe the book isn't nearly closed on those guys -- and I don't think it is -- then I think Croyle's performance doesn't look so bad. It was better than Marc Bulger's last year, and not too far behind Eli Manning's.

Thank you!

There is a difference between "not closing the book" on a player and "giving him a free pass for last season". I'm fine with the former and disagree with the latter. Because of last year, while the book may not be closed, his leash should be a lot shorter than if we had no info on him whatsoever. Edwards btw was a true rookie, and there is a significant difference. Jackson's yards per attempt were significantly better than Croyle, his problem was a higher interception rate. Clemens and Croyle, tomay-to, to-mah-to. It's great being a fan of the Chiefs and Jets.

The fact that Croyle didn't throw interceptions at a high rate isn't a positive, when its coupled with no production. Here are the quarterbacks who had the lowest int% in a single season at age 25 or younger (1.9% or lower):

1. Brian Griese 2000

2. Ken O'Brien 1985

3. Byron Leftwich 2005

4. Drew Brees 2004

5. Rick Mirer 1995

6. Tony Eason 1984

7. Bernie Kosar 1986

8. Mike Vick 2002

9. Chris Miller 1989

That's not a great list, considering we are looking at the best of the last 30 years in a particular performance category. Those that turned out to have good careers on that list were also good in other areas, so knowing they were good at avoiding int's doesn't add anything. Rick Mirer not throwing interceptions on the other hand, didn't make him a good quarterback.

 

[chuckw]

Great Post galligan...

As a chiefs fan I think I can offer some insight.

1. Draft Dwayne Bowe!!! As long as Croyle is the QB, Bowe is going to be near the top in targets... and not to mention Bowe is a freak.

2. It looks like the Chiefs have an actual NFL offensive coordinator this year. We used 3 WRs in a set! Seriously, Gailey is going to help Croyle's production because he spreads it out more and is not afraid to throw.

3. I do not believe in the Chiefs running game this year. Larry is dancing entirely too much.. just like last year. He looks like he is afraid to get hit.... shellshocked. He tiptoes through the line and goes down on 1st contact anymore. There was only one run in the 1st preseason game I liked and it was a 3 yard gain... he actually made a decision and lowered his pads and took a hit. We will see during the rest of the preseason if he starts giving hits instead of taking them.

4. Jamaal Charles will be the back on passing downs.... sooner or later.

5. There are a ton of WRs vying for the #2 spot. I hope Will Franklin gets it... I think he could post a 600/3 year.. maybe more.

If Croyle stays healthy here is my prediction.

D. Bowe - 1300/9

T. Gonzalez - 900/7

W. Franklin - 600/3

The rest - 600/5

Croyle - 3400 yards 24 Tds 17 INTs

That puts him around Eli Manning... and my prediction is fairly optimistic. I would not hesitate drafting him as a low end QB2.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Great Post galligan...

As a chiefs fan I think I can offer some insight.

1. Draft Dwayne Bowe!!! As long as Croyle is the QB, Bowe is going to be near the top in targets... and not to mention Bowe is a freak.

2. It looks like the Chiefs have an actual NFL offensive coordinator this year. We used 3 WRs in a set! Seriously, Gailey is going to help Croyle's production because he spreads it out more and is not afraid to throw.

3. I do not believe in the Chiefs running game this year. Larry is dancing entirely too much.. just like last year. He looks like he is afraid to get hit.... shellshocked. He tiptoes through the line and goes down on 1st contact anymore. There was only one run in the 1st preseason game I liked and it was a 3 yard gain... he actually made a decision and lowered his pads and took a hit. We will see during the rest of the preseason if he starts giving hits instead of taking them.

4. Jamaal Charles will be the back on passing downs.... sooner or later.

5. There are a ton of WRs vying for the #2 spot. I hope Will Franklin gets it... I think he could post a 600/3 year.. maybe more.

If Croyle stays healthy here is my prediction.

D. Bowe - 1300/9

T. Gonzalez - 900/7

W. Franklin - 600/3

The rest - 600/5

Croyle - 3400 yards 24 Tds 17 INTs

That puts him around Eli Manning... and my prediction is fairly optimistic. I would not hesitate drafting him as a low end QB2.

Those are some amazing numbers for Bowe, I would be very surprised even with his talent that he could put up 1300 yards on that offense.

 

[chuckw]

Great Post galligan...

As a chiefs fan I think I can offer some insight.

1. Draft Dwayne Bowe!!! As long as Croyle is the QB, Bowe is going to be near the top in targets... and not to mention Bowe is a freak.

2. It looks like the Chiefs have an actual NFL offensive coordinator this year. We used 3 WRs in a set! Seriously, Gailey is going to help Croyle's production because he spreads it out more and is not afraid to throw.

3. I do not believe in the Chiefs running game this year. Larry is dancing entirely too much.. just like last year. He looks like he is afraid to get hit.... shellshocked. He tiptoes through the line and goes down on 1st contact anymore. There was only one run in the 1st preseason game I liked and it was a 3 yard gain... he actually made a decision and lowered his pads and took a hit. We will see during the rest of the preseason if he starts giving hits instead of taking them.

4. Jamaal Charles will be the back on passing downs.... sooner or later.

5. There are a ton of WRs vying for the #2 spot. I hope Will Franklin gets it... I think he could post a 600/3 year.. maybe more.

If Croyle stays healthy here is my prediction.

D. Bowe - 1300/9

T. Gonzalez - 900/7

W. Franklin - 600/3

The rest - 600/5

Croyle - 3400 yards 24 Tds 17 INTs

That puts him around Eli Manning... and my prediction is fairly optimistic. I would not hesitate drafting him as a low end QB2.

Those are some amazing numbers for Bowe, I would be very surprised even with his talent that he could put up 1300 yards on that offense.

Having watch Bowe for a year and a preseason... he is an absolute beast. The only way he doesn't get around those numbers is if Croyle gets hurt. Bowe is similar to Jennings in the fact that he can take a slant and take it to the house... and Croyle can throw that slant. I really do expect those type of numbers from Bowe this year.

 

[The Jacket]

I don't see Croyle throwing that many TDs or INTs. He's pretty good at protecting the ball and I don't think he's quite far along enough yet to throw 24 TDs. I would have him at about 14-16, with 10-12 INTs. I also see Bowe falling a good bit short of 1300 yards. I've got him at very similar numbers to last year, with a slight bump in TDs.

I think the running game will improve more than the passing game. And I liked a few of LJ's runs, especially an eight-yard toss in which he showed great patience and vision.

I guess that's why they call them opinions.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

However, the Bears were playing vanilla D and KC wasn't holding anything back.

The Bears were playing in a pretty standard cover-2 shell. The Chiefs were running a very simple offense without any motioning and formation variation. It is what it is, and Croyle, when given just a second or two of time, picked it apart. His numbers would've been better had the WRs not slipped down on that dodgy turf twice. Not to say he'll do it in the regular season but he did indeed look pretty good.

Don't know what to tell you. I saw the Chiefs running play action and making aggressive throws. I saw the Bears running their base D and not blitzing. To me that's vanilla. The stuff I read and heard after the game indicated that the Bear defenders got more from the Chief O than they thought they would. They also said that the D should have been ready to play and they may have been a bit complacent-for whatever reason.I'm not trying to put down Croyle. The OL gave Croyle time and he did a good job producing a long drive. He deserves credit for that.

 

[massraider]

He should definitely not be judged solely on last year.

The Chiefs should give him at least 7 years as the starting QB before considering other options.