Why do I fear major bust potential from JaMarcus? (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

So I've been pondering this since just before the ND game when people really started to jump on this guy's bandwagon. From everything I saw and read of him before, he was projected as an early 2nd rounder, where I thought he'd be a nice pick b/c even if he busted, it wouldn't be that much of a cap risk.

BUT then all h3ll broke loose after what I saw as a good, not great performance against a crappy ND defense and suddenly he was being projected at the #1 overall slot!!! I couldn't believe it. What had changed? Yeah he has a great arm but so did Bledsoe and Boller.

The modern NFL QB position is all about the following attributes. Arm strength is way overrated IMO...

- Intelligence

- Accuracy

- Quick decision making

- Pocket presence

- Toughness

- Leadership

What I see from JaMarcus on film is a carbon copy of Culpepper without Moss. A big guy with some mobility and a tremendous arm, who relies WAY too much on his athleticism, rather than reading the defense and taking what is given. Even in that overhyped ND game he repeatedly threw into double coverage - passes which would have been disasterous picks in the NFL, but fell to the ground against the crappy ND secondary.

Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.

Am I missing something here or is this another case of scouts falling in love with measurables instead of game tape. How many Bradys, Mannings and Montanas do they need to see before they realize that this game isn't about arm strength?

Talk me down please, b/c if the Raiders take JaBustus if fear they will be derailing what has become some promising organizational momentum with the emergence of the defense and the hiring of Kiffin and the new coaching staff.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I can't talk you down because I agree with you. If I was going to choose a QB I would take Brady Quinn, although trading down would be the raiders best chance for success.

 

[Warpig]

So I've been pondering this since just before the ND game when people really started to jump on this guy's bandwagon. From everything I saw and read of him before, he was projected as an early 2nd rounder, where I thought he'd be a nice pick b/c even if he busted, it wouldn't be that much of a cap risk.BUT then all h3ll broke loose after what I saw as a good, not great performance against a crappy ND defense and suddenly he was being projected at the #1 overall slot!!! I couldn't believe it. What had changed? Yeah he has a great arm but so did Bledsoe and Boller.The modern NFL QB position is all about the following attributes. Arm strength is way overrated IMO...- Intelligence- Accuracy- Quick decision making- Pocket presence- Toughness- LeadershipWhat I see from JaMarcus on film is a carbon copy of Culpepper without Moss. A big guy with some mobility and a tremendous arm, who relies WAY too much on his athleticism, rather than reading the defense and taking what is given. Even in that overhyped ND game he repeatedly threw into double coverage - passes which would have been disasterous picks in the NFL, but fell to the ground against the crappy ND secondary.Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.Am I missing something here or is this another case of scouts falling in love with measurables instead of game tape. How many Bradys, Mannings and Montanas do they need to see before they realize that this game isn't about arm strength?Talk me down please, b/c if the Raiders take JaBustus if fear they will be derailing what has become some promising organizational momentum with the emergence of the defense and the hiring of Kiffin and the new coaching staff.

Very mothereffin' I agree 100%.He has a high ceiling I'll give him that. But I wouldn't wanna risk $50 mil on "potential".

 

[KoolKat]

Probably b/c he is a guy that has had a giant leap in draft stock since the beginning of the last football year. It reminds me of the leap Carr made due to his physical abilities, and we all know that didn't work out. I think you raise some good questions and comparisons. He wasn't viewed as a possible 1st pick, or 1st rounder for that matter, when the season began. Granted a lot has changed since then.

 

[alg]

Have to agree LawFitz, you should be very worried.

Whenever I hear about a player with vast physical potential that may be lacking in the intangables... I take notice. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop a bit.

And therein lyes your only hope....

 

[trader jake]

I can't talk you down because I agree with you. If I was going to choose a QB I would take Brady Quinn, although trading down would be the raiders best chance for success.

 

[LawFitz]

This guy's physical ability is like a siren song right now for big Al. If he overrides Kiff and Knapp and takes JR over Calvin Johnson, I think it will be the final nail in the coffin for his beloved organization during his lifetime.

MUST... RESIST... TEMPTATION! Big arm doesn't equate to NFL success!

Please Al, come out of the haze and either take CJ or trade down with Tampa for the king's ransom they want to give you.

I think what kills me more than anything is the media already annointing JR as the pick. Where is this talk from them? It's almost like they are baiting Al into risking the franchise on this overrated QB. We all know ESPN hates the Raiders, but now even the guys on Sirius NFL radio, for whom I have tremendous respect, are saying the Raiders are dumb not to draft JaMarcus.

R U kidding me???

 

[massraider]

He played better against the worse teams? Well, there's a shocking trend.

 

[LawFitz]

He played better against the worse teams? Well, there's a shocking trend.

Look at the game logs, he torched the crappy teams and STUNK against the good defenses. Can you say OVERRATED???

 

[Chadstroma]

- Intelligence- Accuracy- Quick decision making- Pocket presence- Toughness- Leadership

Did you just steal that from Aikman's article in Sporting News? Very similiar.

 

[LawFitz]

- Intelligence- Accuracy- Quick decision making- Pocket presence- Toughness- Leadership

Did you just steal that from Aikman's article in Sporting News? Very similiar.

Nope, just my line of thought after watching the good and bad QBs of the last 20 years.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

He played better against the worse teams? Well, there's a shocking trend.

Look at the game logs, he torched the crappy teams and STUNK against the good defenses. Can you say OVERRATED???

Didn't look that good against the Gators........I do think the Raiders need a QB, but I think they can get a good one in the 2nd.I've been saying one of the 2 top QBs are probably going to fall for a while. IMO Probably towards the end of the 1st round or even begining of the 2nd.

 

[massraider]

He played better against the worse teams? Well, there's a shocking trend.

Look at the game logs, he torched the crappy teams and STUNK against the good defenses. Can you say OVERRATED???

I look at his numbers year-to-year, and say, "His best football is ahead of him."Not sure I can say that about Quinn.And I think most QB's played well against the worst teams, and had worse games against the better teams. I seem to remember a similar argument about Peyton Manning's performance aginst his better opponents.Overrated? Who is overrating him? All I hear is boom or bust.

 

[DAG]

Let me say, to dispel homerism concerns, that I normally downgrade LSU players in my fantasy analyses. For example, I am way down on Addai compared to other folks. While I feel like Russell will take longer to develop than Quinn, especially in terms of timing his throws (I've gone into this at length in other posts) I don't think several of the repeating criticisms on him are founded in anything but unexamined assumptions. He is being discussed solely as a physical phenom, so the assumption that follows is physicality is all he has going for him. That's just not true. Specifically:

Intelligence - the coaches at LSU, including Jimbo Fisher (OC) said that Russell was the best QB at the line of scrimmage he's ever coached. The assumption that he's not smart was popular aming LSU fans just as it is with FF folks, but it's unfounded. He does need to work on his decision-making, and part of that has to do with maturity, having too much confidence in his athletic ability, and experience, but it's not that he isn't bright enough to make changes at the line or read a defense.

Leadership/intangibles - I've never felt like either of these was an issue. While he struggled against some good SEC defenses at times, he also led a lot of winning drives and comebacks. His teammates all liked him, he comes from a good family, and he was a good leader on the field. If anything, I think he'll be more of a winner in the pros than a stats guy, kind of what I expect from Vince Young; maybe that's not ideal for FF, but it's good for the real thing.

ND as representative of him beating up on bad teams - he definitely struggled against some good teams (like Auburn last season) but he also had some downright heroic games against exceptional defenses (Alabama two seasons ago). He put up good numbers and had an outstanding W/L record in the SEC, so he deserves a lot of credit for playing well against brutal competition.

Like I said, I think Quinn produces more right away, but Russell should not have anyone on a ledge. He's not like a Boller or Akili Smith, who came out of nowehere to have a great senior season. His progression was more steady, and his last season was an extension of that progress.

 

[LawFitz]

I look at his numbers year-to-year, and say, "His best football is ahead of him."Not sure I can say that about Quinn.And I think most QB's played well against the worst teams, and had worse games against the better teams. I seem to remember a similar argument about Peyton Manning's performance aginst his better opponents.Overrated? Who is overrating him? All I hear is boom or bust.

I watch tape of his games and highlights and see a guy who throws into coverage instead of reading and reacting like Manning did, even while in school. He got away with it in college against the shyte teams, but not against the good teams. He WON'T get away with it in the pros. Can he learn to be a cerebral QB? Sure. Is it worth the $50 MM risk and the entire franchise to find out? I think NO WAY.No one knows for sure, but this guy's resume is much more Ryan Leaf-like than Peyton Manning.

 

[massraider]

No one knows for sure, but this guy's resume is much more Ryan Leaf-like than Peyton Manning.

Uggh. That's my cue.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

you forgot that he showed up fat at the combine. i pray that the raiders go in any other direction.

 

[LawFitz]

Let me say, to dispel homerism concerns, that I normally downgrade LSU players in my fantasy analyses. For example, I am way down on Addai compared to other folks. While I feel like Russell will take longer to develop than Quinn, especially in terms of timing his throws (I've gone into this at length in other posts) I don't think several of the repeating criticisms on him are founded in anything but unexamined assumptions. He is being discussed solely as a physical phenom, so the assumption that follows is physicality is all he has going for him. That's just not true. Specifically:Intelligence - the coaches at LSU, including Jimbo Fisher (OC) said that Russell was the best QB at the line of scrimmage he's ever coached. The assumption that he's not smart was popular aming LSU fans just as it is with FF folks, but it's unfounded. He does need to work on his decision-making, and part of that has to do with maturity, having too much confidence in his athletic ability, and experience, but it's not that he isn't bright enough to make changes at the line or read a defense. Leadership/intangibles - I've never felt like either of these was an issue. While he struggled against some good SEC defenses at times, he also led a lot of winning drives and comebacks. His teammates all liked him, he comes from a good family, and he was a good leader on the field. If anything, I think he'll be more of a winner in the pros than a stats guy, kind of what I expect from Vince Young; maybe that's not ideal for FF, but it's good for the real thing.ND as representative of him beating up on bad teams - he definitely struggled against some good teams (like Auburn last season) but he also had some downright heroic games against exceptional defenses (Alabama two seasons ago). He put up good numbers and had an outstanding W/L record in the SEC, so he deserves a lot of credit for playing well against brutal competition. Like I said, I think Quinn produces more right away, but Russell should not have anyone on a ledge. He's not like a Boller or Akili Smith, who came out of nowehere to have a great senior season. His progression was more steady, and his last season was an extension of that progress.

Thx for the post. I still don't think he's worth the risk, especially when the alternatives are a sure fire superstar like CJ or trading down a few slots and raping Tampa for a ransom of extra picks, but I appreciate your insight. It does make me feel a bit better to hear that an LSU insider thinks highly of Russell beyond his arm strength.

 

[LawFitz]

you forgot that he showed up fat at the combine. i pray that the raiders go in any other direction.

Me too, boss. Me too.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

I wrote this for another board a month ago or so with the QB analysis I've used in the past.

QB Analysis

Tier 1

Accuracy – I believe this is the greatest attribute a quarterback must have. Every elite quarterback excels in this area in one facet of the game. Period. This however, may vary amongst the quarterbacks as to whether they excel in short, intermediate and deep throws; but all are highly accurate in at least one or two of these areas.

Best NFL example – Joe Montana

Football IQ – Intelligence is important, but Football IQ is a necessity for quarterbacks. This includes the following two skills: (1) Being able to grasp the offense, read defenses and pick apart a defense based on what they give you, and (2) Decision-making ability when under pressure.

Best NFL example – Peyton Manning

Intangibles – Often, this category is mentioned last when evaluating quarterbacks, but I think it is one of the most important. This includes: (1) Leadership ability, (2) Having the work ethic and dedication to prepare, (3) Competitiveness and Toughness, and (4) The ability to rise to the occasion in big games and/or pressure situations.

Best NFL example – Tom Brady

Tier 2

Mechanics – I see three main areas when mechanics is being discussed. (1) Quick release. Being able to get rid of the ball quickly when a quarterback decides to throw is very important. (2) Footwork. Being able to go through the different drops and maintain proper balance and weight distribution. Finally, (3) Release Point. For quarterbacks this is important to negate defensive lineman batting the ball down, although is often overrated.

Best NFL example – John Elway

Arm Strength – Perhaps the most overrated of all the abilities is arm strength. It is necessary though for quarterbacks to have adequate arm strength to make most of the throws in the NFL. However, some elite quarterbacks have gotten along without it. It certainly does help when a quarterback can throw the deep out with zip and“hum” it into tight spaces with accuracy ; the key being with accuracy.

Best NFL example – Brett Favre

Tier 3

Height – The optimum height for an NFL quarterback tends to be between 6’4” and 6’5”. The floor seems to be around 6’1” for all quarterbacks in the “elite” discussion.

Mobility – This area covers two main areas (1) Escape Ability; which would be having the necessary quickness to avoid the rush and extend the play after the picket breaks down to make a throw. (2) Running Ability; this is when a quarterback turns into a runner to gain positive yardage. The ability to being a dual threat here is important because even after a QB leaves the pocket, he can still run or throw.

Best NFL example – Steve Young

Now, when looking at Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, here's what I came up with in those categories.

Accuracy - Russell (9) / Quinn (7) - Russell improved every year and faced top defenses two years in a row and had a 67% completion rate his junior year; one of the knocks on Quinn has been his accuracy at times against some of the top defense he's played.

Football IQ - Russell (7) / Quinn (7) - I have the two even here; Quinn is better at reading defenses in my mind and Russell does better under pressure.

*This area is also hard to determine due to interivew and tests that we dont' have access to.

Intangibles - Quinn (7) / Russell (7) - This isn't a cop out to have them tied again, but both excel in some areas, and show weaknesses in others and end up being even. I love Quinn's toughness, leadership and competitiveness, but another knock on him has been his disappearance at times, which has become a pattern. Russell seems to me to be a gamer who rises when the pressure heats up and shows great passion on the field. However, is his work ethic where it should be off the field? It's a question that needs to be answered.

Mechanics - Quinn (9) / Russell (7) - Quinn is just about as fundamentally sound as a QB can be coming out of college. Russell has a great throwing motion and a quick release for a big arm, but his footwork can be sloppy at times.

Arm strength - Russell (10) / Quinn (7) - Quinn has adequte arm strength for the NFL and Russell is perhaps the best I've ever seen in an NFL Rookie.

Height - Russell (10) / Quinn (8) - 6'5"' vs. 6'3". Russell's is the optimum height while Quinn's is still very good, but just below the elite.

Mobility - Quinn (7) / Russell (6) - Russell is quick for his size, but is a little sluggish in the pocket at times; which is normal for a QB of his height and build. Quinn is better than many give him credit for running the ball.

Tier 1 Score - Russell (23) / Quinn (21)

Tier 2 Score - Russell (17) / Quinn (16)

Tier 3 Score - Russell (16) / Quinn (15)

Obviously some may view this differently and have the numbers come out flip flopped. However, one thing I try to do is not let any personal bias I have come into play. I rate each category and see where the results come in.

Also, any input on how to improve the analysis is always appreciated.

 

[gump]

Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.

I was at a game in Tuscaloosa on Nov 12, 2005. Both teams were ranked in the top 5. Alabama was #3 and undefeated. Alabama also had the #1 ranked defense in the country.- UA was up and playing solid at halftime up 10-0, in a typical defensive struggle in the SEC. Russell looked contained.- Then...opening series of the 2nd half...Russell comes out and completes two straight passes totalling 43 yards. After a UA penalty, LSU runs it down UA's throat for a TD. UA - 10, LSU - 7.- Next LSU drive...Russell completes his first throw for 29 yards. A personal foul kills the LSU drive, and they kick a FG to tie the score at 10.- Next drive...Russell marches LSU to the UA 30, but a FG is missed.- Russell eventually gets LSU down to the UA 30 with just over 3 minutes left...another FG missed. Goes to OT.- In OT, Russell throws for a first down on the first play, then after 2 runs, throws the game-winner for 12 yards to Bowe. On the play, Russell scrambles out of pressure and hits Bowe in between defenders in the end zone on the run.Russell finished with a rating of 89.4 with 1 TD and 0 INT.I have been aware of Russell for 6 years, since he was a HS stud. But that day he showed me something that made an impression.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Quinn's accuracy issues are a mechanical flaw. Mayock did a beautiful job of breaking it down. He doesn't have a trained step into his throws. He understrides and it's sails high. He overstrides (more often than anything)) and he underthrows the ball. He gets it right and makes nice plays. Anyone who has coached pitchers knows this is usually a huge problem to try and solve.

I think accuracy is the most important ingredient in an NFL QB, specifically putting the ball in small windows. Russell is the best I have seen ever with balls 30 yards and deeper and as good as any with the shorter stuff. He has spectacular accuracy and his footwork doesn't alter it. That is a pure thrower, a sight thrower, a guy who can grab a handful of darts and toss bullseyes with simple hand eye coordination.

I am not going to suggest anybody to pass on Calvin, but Jamarcus Russell is not a high bust risk. He is a solid leader, he does a great job calling protections and changing plays. He reads defenses fine but makes "glory" decisions. He'll learn to take the easy stuff, like many great college QBs have to learn.

 

[LawFitz]

Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.

I was at a game in Tuscaloosa on Nov 12, 2005. Both teams were ranked in the top 5. Alabama was #3 and undefeated. Alabama also had the #1 ranked defense in the country.- UA was up and playing solid at halftime up 10-0, in a typical defensive struggle in the SEC. Russell looked contained.- Then...opening series of the 2nd half...Russell comes out and completes two straight passes totalling 43 yards. After a UA penalty, LSU runs it down UA's throat for a TD. UA - 10, LSU - 7.- Next LSU drive...Russell completes his first throw for 29 yards. A personal foul kills the LSU drive, and they kick a FG to tie the score at 10.- Next drive...Russell marches LSU to the UA 30, but a FG is missed.- Russell eventually gets LSU down to the UA 30 with just over 3 minutes left...another FG missed. Goes to OT.- In OT, Russell throws for a first down on the first play, then after 2 runs, throws the game-winner for 12 yards to Bowe. On the play, Russell scrambles out of pressure and hits Bowe in between defenders in the end zone on the run.Russell finished with a rating of 89.4 with 1 TD and 0 INT.I have been aware of Russell for 6 years, since he was a HS stud. But that day he showed me something that made an impression.

Now this is the kind of stuff I wanted to hear. Thank you.So why do you think he wasn't talked about more prior to the ND game? If he played this well against the well respected SEC, why was he projected as a 2nd rounder so late into his junior year?Not trying to bait you, just sincerely trying to figure out the rapid ascension up the draft board. Anytime that happens, it raises red flags for me. Especially when the end of the ascension is #1 overall, where team are made and broken.

 

[LawFitz]

Also, what happened against FL, Tenn and Aub? Why did he struggle against those teams?Lastly, would YOU take him over Calvin Johnson?

 

[SuperJohn96]

you forgot that he showed up fat at the combine. i pray that the raiders go in any other direction.

Seriously, this is a HUGE red flag for me.I mean, everyone knows how much players get disected during the offseason before the draft.

What kind of idiot lets ANYTHING get in the way of him and more money as a higher draft pick?

Show up overweight? Are you friggin KIDDING ME?

If I'm a GM, I look at it like this...dude has millions of dollars on the line and he can't even stay in shape.

What's he going to do when after he already gets the contract?

 

[Demons]

I can't talk you off the ledge, since I'm next to you on it. Russell was looked at as a solid early second round guy through most of last season. I like him as an 8 to 12 pick in the first round, but not as an instant $50 million man. With the type of money he will receive at the #1 overall spot, let someone else mortgage their salary cap.

Sadly, the Raiders line is not in the shape to nurture a young QB. Maybe after this draft they will have the players in place at tackle and guard (maybe even Kalil at center), to protect the QB. I believe they can get a good free agent QB to come to town, once they have a line in place.

I would be thrilled if they traded with Tampa Bay. That would allow them to use the #4 on Joe Thomas, or even Okoye or Landry. Teaming up Michael Huff with a free safety like Landry would make the defense even more deadly. Or, getting a replacement in anticipation of Sapp retiring in a few years would be great. Sapp on one side and Okoye on the other for a few years. Using the second round picks on offensive linemen would be nice. Better yet, take Okoye at the #4 and Brandon Meriweather with Tampa's second round pick. Use a third round pick on Figurs (I expect him to go in the third round).

 

[cstu]

you forgot that he showed up fat at the combine. i pray that the raiders go in any other direction.

Seriously, this is a HUGE red flag for me.I mean, everyone knows how much players get disected during the offseason before the draft.

What kind of idiot lets ANYTHING get in the way of him and more money as a higher draft pick?

Show up overweight? Are you friggin KIDDING ME?

If I'm a GM, I look at it like this...dude has millions of dollars on the line and he can't even stay in shape.

What's he going to do when after he already gets the contract?

I've been trying to think of a player who got out of shape prior to the draft testing but turned out to be a good player in the NFL - not having much luck. IMO, JaMarcus is not the type of player you want to give a huge signing bonus to. It happened with Leaf and more recently with BMW and Lendale.

 

[LawFitz]

I've been trying to think of a player who got out of shape prior to the draft testing but turned out to be a good player in the NFL - not having much luck. IMO, JaMarcus is not the type of player you want to give a huge signing bonus to. It happened with Leaf and more recently with BMW and Lendale.

Ugh, very good point. Back on the ledge.Upside be damned, this guy has WAY too many red flags for #1 overall. ESPECIALLY when the single greatest WR prospect of all time is sitting there waiting to be had.April 28th may go down as a day of infamy for the Raider Nation. God, please have pity on us and give us CJ!

 

[Chaos Commish]

Also, what happened against FL, Tenn and Aub? Why did he struggle against those teams?Lastly, would YOU take him over Calvin Johnson?

Why did you delete my quote? Mind already closed? Hmmm. The first question is... sorry but...

Come on. Manning had 63 rating, no tds and a pick against Jacksonville last year. Against Baltimore his rating was under 40 and he threw two picks and no tds. It's a silly concern with a very obvious explanantion. Sorry but no one should have to explain this.

Russell finished one of the toughest schedules in the nation completing over 70 percent of his passes. That is phenomenal.

Yes, to answer the second question. I take the franchise QB and all that risk over the franchise WR... especially in Oakland's situation. I am not scared to take risks. If you play it safe you never get the ultimate prize. Ever. And my understanding is Kiffin practically ignored Calvin on his visit and has all but insisted the Raiders take Jamarcus. Have you heard otherwise?

 

[phthalatemagic]

Perhaps Davis is allowing rumors of Russell to be drafted as the #1 so that he could negotiate with Brady Quinn to get a better deal? If I were Brady Quinn, and I thought I would definitely not be chosen #1 overall. I'd be willing to take a bit less money than what I think Russell would demand so I would not slip to who knows where and make a heck of a lot less money.

Does that sound crazy? Maybe. I just know that you can't believe anything in April.

edit: not (darned not word is sorta important sometimes)

 

[LawFitz]

And my understanding is Kiffin practically ignored Calvin on his visit and has all but insisted the Raiders take Jamarcus. Have you heard otherwise?

I deleted it becuase I posted to you twice back to back and didn't want to be redundant. Not closed minded at all, just wanted to show that I was addressing you specifically with the second post.I've heard that Al wants JR and the coaching staff wants CJ. According to Adam Schefter, there is a "friendly" debate/discussion within the ranks. But we all know that what the dark lord wants, the dark lord shall get.So if the coaches really want CJ, they will have to convince Big Al, that HE wants CJ. Ugh.

 

[Chaos Commish]

And my understanding is Kiffin practically ignored Calvin on his visit and has all but insisted the Raiders take Jamarcus. Have you heard otherwise?

I deleted it becuase I posted to you twice back to back and didn't want to be redundant. Not closed minded at all, just wanted to show that I was addressing you specifically with the second post.I've heard that Al wants JR and the coaching staff wants CJ. According to Adam Schefter, there is a "friendly" debate/discussion within the ranks. But we all know that what the dark lord wants, the dark lord shall get.So if the coaches really want CJ, they will have to convince Big Al, that HE wants CJ. Ugh.

Hmm... well, neither you nor I have crystal balls, and either way Oakland has something to look forward to. Try to keep positive regardless is probably the sanest approach. Sheesh, Philly fans nearly rioted over McNabb. What did they know? I would take a franchise QB and hope for the best. But there is certainly nothing whatsoever wrong with picking a best like Calvin Johnson #1 overall. He is going to be good barring injury. I don't think it is worth any stress because we just don't have those crystal balls. Would you rather have a great QB or a great WR? The answer should be QB.Would you rather your QB bust or your WR? The answer should be WR. It's negative fan(atic)) psychology causing some to hope for the lesser bust instead of the greater star.

 

[Sabertooth]

I totally agree. I think he's going to bust and bust big!

I thought Vernon Davis was going to bust last season and posted it but cannot dig up the post. I just think Russell is getting far too much hype. I don't think he's close to Vince Young or Leinart. Although I don't think Brady Quinn is all that either.

 

[LawFitz]

Why did you delete my quote? Mind already closed? Hmmm.

Sorry Chaos, I now see what happened... I meant to ask Gump about those bad games since he made that great post about the Alabama game sequence.You'll have to forgive me... I was rapid firing responses and got you guys mixed up.

 

[aposulli]

WHY HASN'T ANYONE KILLED THIS GUY FOR COMPARING DREW BLEDSOE TO KYLE BOLLER!??

 

[massraider]

So why do you think he wasn't talked about more prior to the ND game? If he played this well against the well respected SEC, why was he projected as a 2nd rounder so late into his junior year?

For one thing, he was a true junior, with one year of starting experience. How many QBs in the same position enter that season regarded as a lock for the first round?He improved dramatically, as he had from his freshman year to sophomore, and people caught on.Should we really hold it against him that draftniks were late to the party?

 

[PatsWillWin]

WHY HASN'T ANYONE KILLED THIS GUY FOR COMPARING DREW BLEDSOE TO KYLE BOLLER!??

 

[Chaos Commish]

So why do you think he wasn't talked about more prior to the ND game? If he played this well against the well respected SEC, why was he projected as a 2nd rounder so late into his junior year?

For one thing, he was a true junior, with one year of starting experience. How many QBs in the same position enter that season regarded as a lock for the first round?He improved dramatically, as he had from his freshman year to sophomore, and people caught on.Should we really hold it against him that draftniks were late to the party?

Actually draftniks were not late to the party. Aposulli and I were ranking QBs before the Notre Dame game. I ranked Russell #1 in this class should he declare. I didn't even blink or hesitate. The thread is still around here. Many others agreed with me before that game. Massraider makes a good point though. We generally avoid talking about underclassmen who may not declare until they do. Russell was always an unknown. We pretty much knew Calvin and Jarrett were coming out, so they were talked about more.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Dec. 2nd rankings

Read the next 20 or so posts and you see others agreeing with Russell. Aposulli had Quinn and Brohm ahead of him and that is it. And that was in November.



eta: scrolling the thread. Interesting it was Bloom and Colin who agreed with me a month before the ND game.

 

[DAG]

Russell was always a little doughy at LSU, so I wouldn't worry about him showing up thick at the combine, especially if it is taken as a statement on his committment to the game or his seriousness about playing well. I just wouldn't worry about that. He was always willing to play hurt, and doesn't show any headcase concerns like Lendale White started to reveal last season. Despite the Culpepper comparisons, Russell won't make a living scrambling around in the NFL. I think he'll be mobile enough to elude sacks and make special plays, but not so much as a rusher.

I like the way CC framed his decision-making with the term "glory decisions." That's well put. I think Russell relied on his athleticism and arm strength and this, much more than a supposed inability to read defenses, led to a lot of the bad decisions he made. That vastly improved this season, and I agree he'll learn to take what defenses give him more in the pros.

I'll be honest, I never saw Russell as a first round prospect until late this season, and even then I was not sure that I saw him as the #1 overall pick. While I am still a little ambivalent on this, I have no doubt that he can be successful. I think the reason he wasn't talked up more before this season is he didn't consistently put up gaudy stats. That's tough to do in the SEC anyway, but on top of that he did struggle through a maturation process in his decision-making. So much of his game came around this season, but I'll stress again that it wasn't a sudden transformation, but rather the end of a longer span of steady improvement. Each year as a starter he was better than the previous year. What he showed from the very beginning, though, was pure playmaking ability, and that's what I'd be excited about if I was a Raiders fan. Like I said before, I see him as a winner in the pros at the very least, even if he doesn't become a big stats guy. That breakdown of the Alabama game is a perfect example of a time when he struggled but made plays when he needed to. Of course he struggled against some great defenses, but downgrading him for that would be like downgrading Carson Palmer for struggling against Baltimore or Pittsburgh. The SEC features the most consistently fast, physical, and dominating defenses in all of college football, and Russell had a 25-4 record as a starter. A lot of intangibles and playmaking ability went into that. I just don't see him as an all-or-nothing prospect.

 

[jurb26]

The major problem I have with Russell is his inconsistent footwork. I really worry about how that will impact his pocket presence and timing at the next level. Russell a lot of times looked like a freakish athlete who depended on that abnormal physical ability to carry him through college. NFL teams will try to change his footwork from day one and we really have no idea how he will react to this. At best, he embraces it and corrects in in a few years. At worst, it frustrates the hell out of him and he never reaches his potential. The potential to be great is there, but these kinds of old habits are difficult the break.

 

[gump]

Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.

I was at a game in Tuscaloosa on Nov 12, 2005. Both teams were ranked in the top 5. Alabama was #3 and undefeated. Alabama also had the #1 ranked defense in the country.- UA was up and playing solid at halftime up 10-0, in a typical defensive struggle in the SEC. Russell looked contained.- Then...opening series of the 2nd half...Russell comes out and completes two straight passes totalling 43 yards. After a UA penalty, LSU runs it down UA's throat for a TD. UA - 10, LSU - 7.- Next LSU drive...Russell completes his first throw for 29 yards. A personal foul kills the LSU drive, and they kick a FG to tie the score at 10.- Next drive...Russell marches LSU to the UA 30, but a FG is missed.- Russell eventually gets LSU down to the UA 30 with just over 3 minutes left...another FG missed. Goes to OT.- In OT, Russell throws for a first down on the first play, then after 2 runs, throws the game-winner for 12 yards to Bowe. On the play, Russell scrambles out of pressure and hits Bowe in between defenders in the end zone on the run.Russell finished with a rating of 89.4 with 1 TD and 0 INT.I have been aware of Russell for 6 years, since he was a HS stud. But that day he showed me something that made an impression.

Now this is the kind of stuff I wanted to hear. Thank you.So why do you think he wasn't talked about more prior to the ND game? If he played this well against the well respected SEC, why was he projected as a 2nd rounder so late into his junior year?Not trying to bait you, just sincerely trying to figure out the rapid ascension up the draft board. Anytime that happens, it raises red flags for me. Especially when the end of the ascension is #1 overall, where team are made and broken.

I can't tell you. Russell is alot like Matt Jones to me...someone we SEC fans FEARED...and FEARED for years. But someone the rest of the country barely seemed to notice.

 

[massraider]

The major problem I have with Russell is his inconsistent footwork. I really worry about how that will impact his pocket presence and timing at the next level. Russell a lot of times looked like a freakish athlete who depended on that abnormal physical ability to carry him through college. NFL teams will try to change his footwork from day one and we really have no idea how he will react to this. At best, he embraces it and corrects in in a few years. At worst, it frustrates the hell out of him and he never reaches his potential. The potential to be great is there, but these kinds of old habits are difficult the break.

I think there's a good consensus, as I have heard it a lot, that footwork is the easist habit to change.Tom Martinez, the QB guy that worked with Rusell in the offseason, said he went as far as to showcase this perceived flaw at his personal workout. I posted the story in the Raiders thread. A very good read.

 

[jurb26]

The major problem I have with Russell is his inconsistent footwork. I really worry about how that will impact his pocket presence and timing at the next level. Russell a lot of times looked like a freakish athlete who depended on that abnormal physical ability to carry him through college. NFL teams will try to change his footwork from day one and we really have no idea how he will react to this. At best, he embraces it and corrects in in a few years. At worst, it frustrates the hell out of him and he never reaches his potential. The potential to be great is there, but these kinds of old habits are difficult the break.

I think there's a good consensus, as I have heard it a lot, that footwork is the easist habit to change.Tom Martinez, the QB guy that worked with Rusell in the offseason, said he went as far as to showcase this perceived flaw at his personal workout. I posted the story in the Raiders thread. A very good read.

Maybe I should rephrase. I worry about it being a problem Russell himself is willing to try and change.Also, couple this and him landing in Oak behind that horrible Oline and I smell lots of trouble. Going to be hard to get your footwork right while running for your life all game.

 

[netnalp]

Jawarski showed how Russel's foot work is different each play and how it causes him to miss throws that would have been completed with a better set up. My understanding is that Walsh considers footwork the foundation of a passer, that's what drew him to drafting Montana.

The good thing is footwork is "coachable" but I'd be concerned that he hasn't learned the techniques already. IMHO, Raiders should take CJ, especially since I'm on board with the theory that the Bucs snagged Garcia and Plummer to push the Raiders into taking a QB.

 

[nygiants56]

So I've been pondering this since just before the ND game when people really started to jump on this guy's bandwagon. From everything I saw and read of him before, he was projected as an early 2nd rounder, where I thought he'd be a nice pick b/c even if he busted, it wouldn't be that much of a cap risk.BUT then all h3ll broke loose after what I saw as a good, not great performance against a crappy ND defense and suddenly he was being projected at the #1 overall slot!!! I couldn't believe it. What had changed? Yeah he has a great arm but so did Bledsoe and Boller.The modern NFL QB position is all about the following attributes. Arm strength is way overrated IMO...- Intelligence- Accuracy- Quick decision making- Pocket presence- Toughness- LeadershipWhat I see from JaMarcus on film is a carbon copy of Culpepper without Moss. A big guy with some mobility and a tremendous arm, who relies WAY too much on his athleticism, rather than reading the defense and taking what is given. Even in that overhyped ND game he repeatedly threw into double coverage - passes which would have been disasterous picks in the NFL, but fell to the ground against the crappy ND secondary.Plus if you dissect his game logs the last two years, he's torched the crappy teams and sucked wind against the good defenses.Am I missing something here or is this another case of scouts falling in love with measurables instead of game tape. How many Bradys, Mannings and Montanas do they need to see before they realize that this game isn't about arm strength?Talk me down please, b/c if the Raiders take JaBustus if fear they will be derailing what has become some promising organizational momentum with the emergence of the defense and the hiring of Kiffin and the new coaching staff.

Very mothereffin' I agree 100%.He has a high ceiling I'll give him that. But I wouldn't wanna risk $50 mil on "potential".

trade down and get a boatload of picks, and fill the other 53 holes you currently have roster..what good is CJ , if you don't have a QB to throw to him? what good is either Russell or AD, if you don't have a line to block for him?

 

[ffguru56]

It appears if the Raiders go for a QB with their #1 pick that it will be Quinn, not Russell.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/raidersblog/2007/04...inn-in-alameda/

 

[massraider]

It appears if the Raiders go for a QB with their #1 pick that it will be Quinn, not Russell.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/raidersblog/2007/04...inn-in-alameda/

No it doesn't. It appears from that link, that they have interviewed them both.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Also, what happened against FL, Tenn and Aub? Why did he struggle against those teams?

First, to be fair, all of those teams are top defenses and he played them ALL on the road this year in very hostile environments. Second, in the Auburn game, he didn't throw any TDs, but didn't throw picks either. He was average, which happens sometimes. Aub played them tough on the ground only allowing 42 yards rushing. Russell did go 20 of 35 (57%) for 269 yards. He wasn't great, but wasn't awful either. Finally...yeah...as far as the LSU/Tenn game, you clearly never watched the game on saturday when they played because if you had, you wouldnt' have put it up there. You saw that he threw 3 INTs so you call it a game in which he "struggled". He threw 3 TDs going 24 of 36 (66.7%) for 247 yards and rushed 7 times for 71 yards. Oh, and he led them down the field and threw the game winning TD from behind on the road with only a few seconds left on the clock.Oh, I love how you failed to mention any of his good games against top teams when he was a sophmore or the Arkansas game his junior year. Look them up...Florida was his worst game, perhaps of his career, no question. But don't twist the facts to fit your arguement, list the facts, not just some of them...

 

[cstu]

And my understanding is Kiffin practically ignored Calvin on his visit and has all but insisted the Raiders take Jamarcus. Have you heard otherwise?

I deleted it becuase I posted to you twice back to back and didn't want to be redundant. Not closed minded at all, just wanted to show that I was addressing you specifically with the second post.I've heard that Al wants JR and the coaching staff wants CJ. According to Adam Schefter, there is a "friendly" debate/discussion within the ranks. But we all know that what the dark lord wants, the dark lord shall get.So if the coaches really want CJ, they will have to convince Big Al, that HE wants CJ. Ugh.

Hmm... well, neither you nor I have crystal balls, and either way Oakland has something to look forward to. Try to keep positive regardless is probably the sanest approach. Sheesh, Philly fans nearly rioted over McNabb. What did they know? I would take a franchise QB and hope for the best. But there is certainly nothing whatsoever wrong with picking a best like Calvin Johnson #1 overall. He is going to be good barring injury. I don't think it is worth any stress because we just don't have those crystal balls. Would you rather have a great QB or a great WR? The answer should be QB.Would you rather your QB bust or your WR? The answer should be WR. It's negative fan(atic)) psychology causing some to hope for the lesser bust instead of the greater star.

The issue is that CJ is much more likely to be a great WR than Russell is to be a great QB. Take that chance if you will, but I've said all along that it's usually a mistake to take chances on potential early in the 1st because of the amount of money being guaranteed today. I'd almost rather have the #10 pick rather than the #1 because you won't set your team back a few years with a bad pick.