Why do people like Moreno (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

And, yes, McDaniels is being super secretive because that's his M.O.

...and the players, rest of the staff? Nobody has said anything really...

Your original point -- that he looks poor in preseason action -- is preposterous. He's had all of three carries and showed a very impressive burst on those carries.

"preseason action" includes training camp.

FWIW, There has not been much chatter about any players, goood or bad in the MSM for Denver this year. Moreno missed most of camp and then was injured early in the 1st preseason game. Camp reports on the orangemane fan website have said that Moreno looks the part. However, those camp reports are few since Moreno missed a good part of camp due to a hold out and missed a better part due to injury. I wouldn't take the lack of chatter about Moreno as either good or bad since the sample size is small. I definitely wouldn't hold it against him. To me, that's the biggest issue. There is not much to go off of with Moreno. He has been limited in camp and has only 3 carries in preseason. It's going to be a bit of a risk at his ADP, but who in that range isn't a risk? Going off his college pedigree, the fact he was drafted so high when the team had other pressing issues, and knowing that the Bronco system will use its backs as receivers quite often lead me to believe the risk is minimal when you consider who else (RB) is being taken in that range.

 

[Buffaloes]

How can you possibly say that his ceiling is no more than ADP#55?

I didn't say that.I said his ceiling isn't high enough to justify pick #55.

What do you think his "ceiling" is?

 

[Diamond One]

Im asking you, the Denver homeboy, for my own selfish reasons... Rice, Moreno or TJones when you are on the clock this weekend?

Moreno. That Denver O-line is sick, and I think McDaniels is going to have something to prove after drafting him so highly.

Whoa, wait a second here SSOG. While I usually agree with much of what you say, I caution you here. McD has a hell of A LOT to prove across the board; do not let that confuse your thoughts on this. While Moreno is a "potential NFL talent" indeed, I also agree that at this time - considering the turmoil in Denver - that his ADP is a tad bit high in many formats. There is a lot of talent in the Denver RB stable, some potential, some proven, some injury-prone. This is a new system under McD, so who will emerge and who will falter as the prime at this point is truly hard to determine. I suspect that it is going to be a RBBC times 3 or 4 any given game -- at least in the early weeks of the season. As such, those drafting Moreno should prepare accordingly.Is this to say I don't like Moreno or his possible upside? No. The stats you quote are solid indeed, but there have been just as many failures the other way too. If you can get Moreno for cheap, by all means, roll the dice. But under the new system in Denver, I would caution anyone about pinning your hopes on Moreno as your prime or secondary RB at this time IMO. With all due respect, of course! Cheers!

 

[LHUCKS]

Im asking you, the Denver homeboy, for my own selfish reasons... Rice, Moreno or TJones when you are on the clock this weekend?

Moreno. That Denver O-line is sick, and I think McDaniels is going to have something to prove after drafting him so highly.

Whoa, wait a second here SSOG. While I usually agree with much of what you say, I caution you here. McD has a hell of A LOT to prove across the board; do not let that confuse your thoughts on this. While Moreno is a "potential NFL talent" indeed, I also agree that at this time - considering the turmoil in Denver - that his ADP is a tad bit high in many formats. There is a lot of talent in the Denver RB stable, some potential, some proven, some injury-prone. This is a new system under McD, so who will emerge and who will falter as the prime at this point is truly hard to determine. I suspect that it is going to be a RBBC times 3 or 4 any given game -- at least in the early weeks of the season. As such, those drafting Moreno should prepare accordingly.Is this to say I don't like Moreno or his possible upside? No. The stats you quote are solid indeed, but there have been just as many failures the other way too. If you can get Moreno for cheap, by all means, roll the dice. But under the new system in Denver, I would caution anyone about pinning your hopes on Moreno as your prime or secondary RB at this time IMO. With all due respect, of course! Cheers!

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

I don't like Moreno at 55 either. Sure, he could go higher, but I dont feel he is.

What I think alot of you are forgetting when you are saying he is worth 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the top 24, how do you know Moreno is one of them? You are forgeting to factor that in. There are alot of rookies who could be there, so you cant just rank him high because he was the 1st rookie rb picked this year and 2.2 rookies per year are in the top 24. Denvers situation keeps getting worse, and there is a stable of decent (not good) running backs there that will all be fighting for time.

*if moreno was healthy all preseason, this could be a completely different story, but with his injury, he is going to have to prove alot the first few games before he gets the fulltime load he will need to finish as a number 2 back

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't like Moreno at 55 either. Sure, he could go higher, but I dont feel he is.What I think alot of you are forgetting when you are saying he is worth 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the top 24, how do you know Moreno is one of them? You are forgeting to factor that in. There are alot of rookies who could be there, so you cant just rank him high because he was the 1st rookie rb picked this year and 2.2 rookies per year are in the top 24. Denvers situation keeps getting worse, and there is a stable of decent (not good) running backs there that will all be fighting for time.*if moreno was healthy all preseason, this could be a completely different story, but with his injury, he is going to have to prove alot the first few games before he gets the fulltime load he will need to finish as a number 2 back

:(

 

[GDogg]

I don't like Moreno at 55 either. Sure, he could go higher, but I dont feel he is.What I think alot of you are forgetting when you are saying he is worth 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the top 24, how do you know Moreno is one of them? You are forgeting to factor that in. There are alot of rookies who could be there, so you cant just rank him high because he was the 1st rookie rb picked this year and 2.2 rookies per year are in the top 24. Denvers situation keeps getting worse, and there is a stable of decent (not good) running backs there that will all be fighting for time.*if moreno was healthy all preseason, this could be a completely different story, but with his injury, he is going to have to prove alot the first few games before he gets the fulltime load he will need to finish as a number 2 back

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.His being a rookie has nothing to do with why I'd pick him at or maybe above his ADP. My belief that he is the best RB on the roster, running behind a very good run-blocking OL, and that I don't think he'll be in one of the numerous RBBCs, is why I think he's worth pick 55. It has NOTHING to do with 2.2 rookies being in the top 24 and trying to figure out which 2.2 rookies that will be this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

 

[GDogg]

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

It's not an argument for or against Moreno. Do you want to guess what the ratio of non-rookies that don't make the top 24 is?The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Regardless, you said rookie RBs don't often make a fantasy impact. Since about 2 per year make an impact (if we're defining impact as Top 24), I wonder what your definition of "often" is.

 

[LHUCKS]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.I'll play the odds on this one.I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reportsUnfortunately, none of that happened.I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

 

[Diamond One]

I don't like Moreno at 55 either. Sure, he could go higher, but I dont feel he is.What I think alot of you are forgetting when you are saying he is worth 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the top 24, how do you know Moreno is one of them? You are forgeting to factor that in. There are alot of rookies who could be there, so you cant just rank him high because he was the 1st rookie rb picked this year and 2.2 rookies per year are in the top 24. Denvers situation keeps getting worse, and there is a stable of decent (not good) running backs there that will all be fighting for time.*if moreno was healthy all preseason, this could be a completely different story, but with his injury, he is going to have to prove alot the first few games before he gets the fulltime load he will need to finish as a number 2 back

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.His being a rookie has nothing to do with why I'd pick him at or maybe above his ADP. My belief that he is the best RB on the roster, running behind a very good run-blocking OL, and that I don't think he'll be in one of the numerous RBBCs, is why I think he's worth pick 55. It has NOTHING to do with 2.2 rookies being in the top 24 and trying to figure out which 2.2 rookies that will be this year.

True, but here are my concerns: Moreno is still a rookie who has been very limited in camp & pre-season action. His lack of exposure to the speed of the NFL gives me a moment of pause. Also consider that this is no longer the Shanahan show. We have no idea what McD is going to do -- the fact that I don't think he does either is neither here nor there. And Bucky & Hillis and Jordan should not be dismissed either, all are proven guys who could explode just as easily as they could fail.My point is that the new system in Denver HAS to be a consideration. And as I am very concerned about the overall stability there, I would caution anyone looking hard at Moreno at or especially above ADP at this time. Now if he slips below? Jump all over it. He is a talent and does have potential. But right now, that is ALL it is -- potential.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't like Moreno at 55 either. Sure, he could go higher, but I dont feel he is.What I think alot of you are forgetting when you are saying he is worth 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the top 24, how do you know Moreno is one of them? You are forgeting to factor that in. There are alot of rookies who could be there, so you cant just rank him high because he was the 1st rookie rb picked this year and 2.2 rookies per year are in the top 24. Denvers situation keeps getting worse, and there is a stable of decent (not good) running backs there that will all be fighting for time.*if moreno was healthy all preseason, this could be a completely different story, but with his injury, he is going to have to prove alot the first few games before he gets the fulltime load he will need to finish as a number 2 back

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.His being a rookie has nothing to do with why I'd pick him at or maybe above his ADP. My belief that he is the best RB on the roster, running behind a very good run-blocking OL, and that I don't think he'll be in one of the numerous RBBCs, is why I think he's worth pick 55. It has NOTHING to do with 2.2 rookies being in the top 24 and trying to figure out which 2.2 rookies that will be this year.

True, but here are my concerns: Moreno is still a rookie who has been very limited in camp & pre-season action. His lack of exposure to the speed of the NFL gives me a moment of pause. Also consider that this is no longer the Shanahan show. We have no idea what McD is going to do -- the fact that I don't think he does either is neither here nor there. And Bucky & Hillis and Jordan should not be dismissed either, all are proven guys who could explode just as easily as they could fail.My point is that the new system in Denver HAS to be a consideration. And as I am very concerned about the overall stability there, I would caution anyone looking hard at Moreno at or especially above ADP at this time. Now if he slips below? Jump all over it. He is a talent and does have potential. But right now, that is ALL it is -- potential.

Another , who is this Diamond One fellow?

 

[SSOG]

Whoa, wait a second here SSOG. While I usually agree with much of what you say, I caution you here. McD has a hell of A LOT to prove across the board; do not let that confuse your thoughts on this. While Moreno is a "potential NFL talent" indeed, I also agree that at this time - considering the turmoil in Denver - that his ADP is a tad bit high in many formats.

There is a lot of talent in the Denver RB stable, some potential, some proven, some injury-prone. This is a new system under McD, so who will emerge and who will falter as the prime at this point is truly hard to determine. I suspect that it is going to be a RBBC times 3 or 4 any given game -- at least in the early weeks of the season. As such, those drafting Moreno should prepare accordingly.

Is this to say I don't like Moreno or his possible upside? No. The stats you quote are solid indeed, but there have been just as many failures the other way too. If you can get Moreno for cheap, by all means, roll the dice. But under the new system in Denver, I would caution anyone about pinning your hopes on Moreno as your prime or secondary RB at this time IMO.

With all due respect, of course! Cheers!

My thoughts aren't confused. McD drafted Moreno to be a 3-down back. Buckhalter and Jordan barely qualify as competition. I also never said that I'd take Moreno as my RB1... someone just asked me whether I preferred Moreno, Thomas Jones, or Ray Rice. Of the three, it's Moreno, no question- his offensive line is beastly, and I think his coach is going to work him harder than TJones (competing for touches with Washington and Greene) and Rice (McClain and McGahee).

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

No, the number is *NOT* lower than 2.2. It's not *HIGHER* than 2.2, either. The number is 2.2. In the last 10 years, 22 rookies have finished as top-24 fantasy RBs. This isn't my subjective opinion, or an estimation- this is actual demonstrable fact. 22 rookies in 10 years = 2.2 rookies per year who have been starter-caliber.

 

[LHUCKS]

Whoa, wait a second here SSOG. While I usually agree with much of what you say, I caution you here. McD has a hell of A LOT to prove across the board; do not let that confuse your thoughts on this. While Moreno is a "potential NFL talent" indeed, I also agree that at this time - considering the turmoil in Denver - that his ADP is a tad bit high in many formats.

There is a lot of talent in the Denver RB stable, some potential, some proven, some injury-prone. This is a new system under McD, so who will emerge and who will falter as the prime at this point is truly hard to determine. I suspect that it is going to be a RBBC times 3 or 4 any given game -- at least in the early weeks of the season. As such, those drafting Moreno should prepare accordingly.

Is this to say I don't like Moreno or his possible upside? No. The stats you quote are solid indeed, but there have been just as many failures the other way too. If you can get Moreno for cheap, by all means, roll the dice. But under the new system in Denver, I would caution anyone about pinning your hopes on Moreno as your prime or secondary RB at this time IMO.

With all due respect, of course! Cheers!

My thoughts aren't confused. McD drafted Moreno to be a 3-down back. Buckhalter and Jordan barely qualify as competition. I also never said that I'd take Moreno as my RB1... someone just asked me whether I preferred Moreno, Thomas Jones, or Ray Rice. Of the three, it's Moreno, no question- his offensive line is beastly, and I think his coach is going to work him harder than TJones (competing for touches with Washington and Greene) and Rice (McClain and McGahee).

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

No, the number is *NOT* lower than 2.2. It's not *HIGHER* than 2.2, either. The number is 2.2. In the last 10 years, 22 rookies have finished as top-24 fantasy RBs. This isn't my subjective opinion, or an estimation- this is actual demonstrable fact. 22 rookies in 10 years = 2.2 rookies per year who have been starter-caliber.

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.Do you understand why?

 

[GDogg]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

 

[LHUCKS]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

 

[GDogg]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

No, you're missing the point here, Sparky. And, you didn't know he finished as RB7 or you wouldn't have thrown his name out there to get egg on your face (again).Talent and opportunity is my point. Your point is that rookie RBs don't often make a fantasy impact. You pointed it out several times and are getting laughed out of this thread.

I'm cool with using Smith's numbers as his Moreno's ceiling. RB7 at pick 55 would be pretty sweet indeed.

 

[LHUCKS]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

No, you're missing the point here, Sparky. And, you didn't know he finished as RB7 or you wouldn't have thrown his name out there to get egg on your face (again).

You're right...I'm totally new to this football thing...who is Emmit Smith?

 

[LHUCKS]

The argument for Moreno, just like every other RB in the league, is talent and opportunity.

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

No, you're missing the point here, Sparky. And, you didn't know he finished as RB7 or you wouldn't have thrown his name out there to get egg on your face (again).Talent and opportunity is my point. Your point is that rookie RBs don't often make a fantasy impact. You pointed it out several times and are getting laughed out of this thread.

I'm cool with using Smith's numbers as his Moreno's ceiling. RB7 at pick 55 would be pretty sweet indeed.

If 1165/7 is your ceiling for him and your drafting him at #55...you're reaching, terribly.Thomas Jones, who has a comparable ADP...what were his yards from scrimmage last year...just out of curiosity?

 

[GDogg]

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.

To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

No, you're missing the point here, Sparky. And, you didn't know he finished as RB7 or you wouldn't have thrown his name out there to get egg on your face (again).

You're right...I'm totally new to this football thing...who is Emmit Smith?

Reading comprehension down? I didn't say anything about you being new or old to this football thing. Read what I write, comprehend it and respond and I'll return to the favor and we'll be all good.And, I have no idea who this Emmit Smith dude you keep bringing up is. I know who Emmitt Smith is, though.

 

[GDogg]

Emmit Smith, arguably one of the greatest RBs the NFL has ever seen, struggled in his rookie year...he talks about it all the time.

To really excel at the position 99% of of runningbacks need to mature into the situation.

I'll play the odds on this one.

I might like him if he wasn't injured in the preseason.

I might like him if the Broncos offense wasn't a trainwreck this preseason.

I might like him if I heard Chris Johnson like "holy #### this guy is amazing" type reports

Unfortunately, none of that happened.

I'll pass and take Carson Palmer at that ADP.

Emmitt Smith saying he struggled as a rookie is your argument against Moreno? Do you just throw stuff out there without bothering to look it up?Smith had 1165 yards from scrimmage as a rookie with 11 TDs, and finished as RB7 in standard scoring.

Wanna try again?

I think you're missing the point here ace. The Emmit Smith reference had nothing to do with stats...you better use those Emmit numbers as a ceiling, because Moreno is not in Emmit's class.

No, you're missing the point here, Sparky. And, you didn't know he finished as RB7 or you wouldn't have thrown his name out there to get egg on your face (again).Talent and opportunity is my point. Your point is that rookie RBs don't often make a fantasy impact. You pointed it out several times and are getting laughed out of this thread.

I'm cool with using Smith's numbers as his Moreno's ceiling. RB7 at pick 55 would be pretty sweet indeed.

If 1165/7 is your ceiling for him and your drafting him at #55...you're reaching, terribly.Thomas Jones, who has a comparable ADP...what were his yards from scrimmage last year...just out of curiosity?

Why would 1165/7 be my ceiling for Moreno at 55? What numbers are those?And, with all due respect, I'm not surprised you're asking for Jones' numbers. Why don't you try looking some statistics up for yourself for a change? It might prove enlightening.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why would 1165/7 be my ceiling for Moreno at 55? What numbers are those?And, with all due respect, I'm not surprised you're asking for Jones' numbers. Why don't you try looking some statistics up for yourself for a change? It might prove enlightening.

I'm new to stats...don't even know where to find them. I was shocked to find out that Emmit had 1000 his rookie season...first time I've seen such craziness.

 

[Diamond One]

My thoughts aren't confused. McD drafted Moreno to be a 3-down back. Buckhalter and Jordan barely qualify as competition. I also never said that I'd take Moreno as my RB1... someone just asked me whether I preferred Moreno, Thomas Jones, or Ray Rice. Of the three, it's Moreno, no question- his offensive line is beastly, and I think his coach is going to work him harder than TJones (competing for touches with Washington and Greene) and Rice (McClain and McGahee).

Again SSOG, no disrespect intended at all. Love the work you do in here. And if I had to chose between Moreno, Rice or Jones as well, my response would be "depends where they fall in any given draft". All three would be great additions -- as long as you don't reach to grab any of them. My major concern is that Moreno's current ADP is many formant lead people less-in-the-know to believe that Moreno is one of the prime feature backs in the NFL. You have a firm understanding of stats; many do not. Translating those stats into a new management system is difficult at best though which is why I caution you here. McD has, depending on who you ask, created an atmosphere of distrust and confusion at best in the pre-season. The fact that we have NOT seen Moreno hit the tarmac hard just adds to my concern. Is Moreno going to be just a third-down back or someting more / different? Is the McD system going to mirror Denver drives of prior years, look like a NE format, or a hybrid of the two? We simply don't know. As such, adjust accordingly when drafting Moreno -- my only point. As a Denver fan, I hope Moreno explodes!

 

[GDogg]

Why would 1165/7 be my ceiling for Moreno at 55? What numbers are those?

And, with all due respect, I'm not surprised you're asking for Jones' numbers. Why don't you try looking some statistics up for yourself for a change? It might prove enlightening.

I'm new to stats...don't even know where to find them. I was shocked to find out that Emmit had 1000 his rookie season...first time I've seen such craziness.

It might help if you spelled the player whose name you are looking up correctly. Emmitt had over 1100 and 11 TDs.

 

[SSOG]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP. Do you understand why?You want higher than "Top 24"? Fine. 1.6 rookies a season have finished as top 14. That not impactful enough for you? .9 rookies a season have finished as top 10 RBs. You claimed it was rare for a rookie to have an impact. You were spectacularly wrong.Typical LHUCKS thread:1. Make absurd claim without any substantiating data.2. Repeat claim in the face of contrary evidence (that, unlike your claim, is substantiated)3. Repeat claim one last time and finish with "do you really not understand that?" as if your worldview (which demonstrably flies in the face of reality) should be self-evident.One of your reasons for ranking Moreno low is because it's "rare" for rookie RBs to "make an impact". That reason is spectacularly wrong- it is incredibly common for rookie RBs to make an impact.Another of your reasons was that he looked mediocre in preseason action, which is equally ludicrous. For one, "preseason action" consisted of 3 carries. For another, he averaged 6 ypa on those three carries, so even if you want to play small sample size theater, he still performed well.

 

[joffer]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP. Do you understand why?You want higher than "Top 24"? Fine. 1.6 rookies a season have finished as top 14. That not impactful enough for you? .9 rookies a season have finished as top 10 RBs. You claimed it was rare for a rookie to have an impact. You were spectacularly wrong.Typical LHUCKS thread:1. Make absurd claim without any substantiating data.2. Repeat claim in the face of contrary evidence (that, unlike your claim, is substantiated)3. Repeat claim one last time and finish with "do you really not understand that?" as if your worldview (which demonstrably flies in the face of reality) should be self-evident.One of your reasons for ranking Moreno low is because it's "rare" for rookie RBs to "make an impact". That reason is spectacularly wrong- it is incredibly common for rookie RBs to make an impact.Another of your reasons was that he looked mediocre in preseason action, which is equally ludicrous. For one, "preseason action" consisted of 3 carries. For another, he averaged 6 ypa on those three carries, so even if you want to play small sample size theater, he still performed well.

 

[LHUCKS]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

 

[moleculo]

I project Moreno at 257/1182/8 with 24/178/3. Good enough for RB19. This leads me to believe he is slightly overranked - I have that he presents good value @ pick 63. That's so close to the 55 you are discussing that it's negligible. If you have pick 55 and you like him, draft him, it's not a significant reach; certainly not significant enough to make a thread about.

For the record, I try to project mid range - I don't get into the ceiling/floor bit. It's not hard for me to conjure up a scenario where Moreno gets >1300 yards, so I definitely think the upside is there. Granted, the downside is there too.

 

[Buffaloes]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.

Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.

If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

Why are you so sensitive?ETA: And why have you yet to give any type of projection despite requests?

 

[moleculo]

If 1165/7 is your ceiling for him and your drafting him at #55...you're reaching, terribly.Thomas Jones, who has a comparable ADP...what were his yards from scrimmage last year...just out of curiosity?

Would you rather draft Jones or Moreno?

 

[LHUCKS]

okay, not done with you yet...looks like you've made a few more glaring mistakes.

One of your reasons for ranking Moreno low is because it's "rare" for rookie RBs to "make an impact". That reason is spectacularly wrong- it is incredibly common for rookie RBs to make an impact.

I have the number at 1.4 that justify his ADP...1.4 rookie RBs a year...if that's common, then we have a different understanding of what the word common means.

Another of your reasons was that he looked mediocre in preseason action, which is equally ludicrous. For one, "preseason action" consisted of 3 carries. For another, he averaged 6 ypa on those three carries, so even if you want to play small sample size theater, he still performed well.

I obviously wasn't referencing his 3 carries as the sole contributor to "preseason action"...obviously this includes training camp work, scrimmages etc.

 

[SSOG]

Again SSOG, no disrespect intended at all. Love the work you do in here. And if I had to chose between Moreno, Rice or Jones as well, my response would be "depends where they fall in any given draft". All three would be great additions -- as long as you don't reach to grab any of them. My major concern is that Moreno's current ADP is many formant lead people less-in-the-know to believe that Moreno is one of the prime feature backs in the NFL. You have a firm understanding of stats; many do not. Translating those stats into a new management system is difficult at best though which is why I caution you here. McD has, depending on who you ask, created an atmosphere of distrust and confusion at best in the pre-season. The fact that we have NOT seen Moreno hit the tarmac hard just adds to my concern. Is Moreno going to be just a third-down back or someting more / different? Is the McD system going to mirror Denver drives of prior years, look like a NE format, or a hybrid of the two? We simply don't know. As such, adjust accordingly when drafting Moreno -- my only point. As a Denver fan, I hope Moreno explodes!

The question was which of the three I would pick, given I was going to pick one of the three. Of the three, it'd be Moreno, no question. If all three were available and you were going to pick one, then which would you pick? Pretend it's the last pick of the draft and there are no free agent transactions.I agree that there's uncertainty surrounding Denver, but I'm not too worried about some of it. For instance... I'm of the opinion that New England's RBBC tendencies recently have as much to do with the Bust Formerly Known As Moreno as with any coaching preferences (see: Dillon, Corey). Also, despite all of the uncertainties, there are eight certainties. 1- Ryan Clady. 2- Ben Hamilton. 3- Casey Weigmann. 4- Chris Kuper. 5- Ryan Harris. 6- Rick Dennison. 7- Bobby Turner. 8- #12 overall. Those 8 certainties combine to make me confident that Moreno's going to receive a substantial workload (not 300 carries... but 200-250 is easily achievable), and that he's going to produce very well on a per-touch basis.

 

[LHUCKS]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.

Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.

If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

Why are you so sensitive?

These threads turn into flame wars if you don't nip that stuff in the bud, trust me...if a poster can't act like a big boy, I'm not going to discuss FF with him...it's a waste of my time.

 

[theglorydays]

In standard leagues, Ryan Grant finished at 56 overall with 155 points. I don't see why Moreno can't score 155 points this year.

Running backs be drafted around Moreno's adp arearren McFadden

Joseph Addai

Thomas Jones

Knowshon Moreno

Derrick Ward

Larry Johnson

You can find negatives about everyone of those running backs. A good case can be made against drafting all of them at there current ADP as well. It is a matter of preference imo.

I like Moreno at his ADP. If he doesn't work out, oh well, he is my flex starter and I have running back depth to slide another RB into my flex. The potential is there for Moreno to have a good year.

 

[LHUCKS]

In standard leagues, Ryan Grant finished at 56 overall with 155 points.Running backs be drafted around Moreno's adp arearren McFaddenJoseph AddaiThomas JonesKnowshon MorenoDerrick WardLarry JohnsonYou can find negatives about everyone of those running backs. A good case can be made against drafting all of them at there current ADP as well. It is a matter of preference imo. I like Moreno at his ADP. If he doesn't work out, oh well, he is my flex starter and I have running back depth to slide another RB into my flex. The potential is there for Moreno to have a good year.

Remember though, when you're talking ADP it's not just about the RBs that are available...

 

[Buffaloes]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.

Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.

If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

Why are you so sensitive?

These threads turn into flame wars if you don't nip that stuff in the bud, trust me...if a poster can't act like a big boy, I'm not going to discuss FF with him...it's a waste of my time.

Fair enough but why haven't you posted any type of projection yet? I understand you are down on Moreno at his ADP but I (and probably every other person who reads this thread) have no idea what you think he is capable of.

 

[theglorydays]

In standard leagues, Ryan Grant finished at 56 overall with 155 points.Running backs be drafted around Moreno's adp arearren McFaddenJoseph AddaiThomas JonesKnowshon MorenoDerrick WardLarry JohnsonYou can find negatives about everyone of those running backs. A good case can be made against drafting all of them at there current ADP as well. It is a matter of preference imo. I like Moreno at his ADP. If he doesn't work out, oh well, he is my flex starter and I have running back depth to slide another RB into my flex. The potential is there for Moreno to have a good year.

Remember though, when you're talking ADP it's not just about the RBs that are available...

I know, but considering it is pretty rare for a wide reciever to score 200 points, I would much rather have a running back playing my flex. Only 4 recievers scored 200 points last year and all the wide recievers being drafted in the 5th round have pretty much no chance to do it. Moreno has a chance to score 200 points this year. Although it is unlikely, it is possible.

 

[moleculo]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.

Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.

If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

Why are you so sensitive?

These threads turn into flame wars if you don't nip that stuff in the bud, trust me...if a poster can't act like a big boy, I'm not going to discuss FF with him...it's a waste of my time.

then maybe you should stop with condescending statements such as "Do you understand why? "

 

[Mr. Retukes]

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

Actually, it's higher than 2.2 because SSOG forgot Ronnie Brown (23rd in 2005) and guys like Ricky Williams (who was RB16 through the 12 games that he played in 1999).

 

[LHUCKS]

then maybe you should stop with condescending statements such as "Do you understand why? "

That wasn't meant to be condescending...it was a legitimate question.And he was condescending towards me, far before I was towards him.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't think anyone's saying that he should be picked 55 because 2.2 rookies a year end up in the Top 24. The only reason it came up is because of LHUCKS' erroneous statement that it is not often that rookie RBs make a fantasy impact. The 2.2 rookies per year statistic was brought up not to show that Moreno will finish in the Top 24 or that he should be picked in the Top 55, but to refute LHUCKS' statement that rookie RBs don't often make an FF impact.

The number is lower than 2.2...and that number is a strong argument against Moreno.

Actually, it's higher than 2.2 because SSOG forgot Ronnie Brown (23rd in 2005) and guys like Ricky Williams (who was RB16 through the 12 games that he played in 1999).

To clarify, we're looking for rookie RBs that justify a #55 ADP...a RB that finished #23 does not qualify...you need significantly more upside than that.Can anyone tell me why?

 

[boubucarow]

Reading this thread is very painful and has added nothing to my football knowledge.

 

[SSOG]

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP.

False.You really don't get it.If you weren't so negative in tone, I'd explain it to you.

Yes, you understand everything about fantasy football and I understand nothing... and *I* am the one with a negative tone, here. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP. Period. Please note, that "top 24 RB" and "RB24" are not the same thing. The #1 RB in the entire NFL is a top 24 RB. The #4 RB in the NFL is a top 24 RB. The #19 RB in the NFL is a top 24 RB.

okay, not done with you yet...looks like you've made a few more glaring mistakes.

One of your reasons for ranking Moreno low is because it's "rare" for rookie RBs to "make an impact". That reason is spectacularly wrong- it is incredibly common for rookie RBs to make an impact.

I have the number at 1.4 that justify his ADP...1.4 rookie RBs a year...if that's common, then we have a different understanding of what the word common means.

How many rookie RBs start every year? It's not like there are 32 rookie starters every year. 1.4 is an incredible success rate. Perhaps we should put this into perspective for you. Since 1999, there are 22 rookie RBs that have scored 150 fantasy points in a season. Sound low? The number of 4th year backs to reach that plateau in that span is 28. 5th year backs... 28. 6th years = 29, 7th years = 19. So... if 22 times in 10 years is "rare", then 28 times in 10 years must at least be pretty uncommon, right? Do you mark down 4th year backs because it's pretty uncommon for them to make an impact? Do you mark down 5th year backs, too? And 6th year backs? Hell, 2nd and 3rd year backs are the most likely to go for 150+, but even they aren't significantly more likely than rookies (30 and 31 instances, respectively, compared to 22 for the rooks). Do you just downgrade all runningbacks because, no matter how long they've been in the league, it's uncommon for them to make an impact? Do you know how rare it is for an RB to finish in the top 15? Only 15 manage to do it a year!Lets say 150 isn't "impactful" enough for you. You want a higher standard? Sure thing... although it's only going to make the rookies look better. Let's raise the threshold to 200 points.Rookes = 11 times2nd years = 10 times3rd years = 16 times4th years = 14 timesOnce again, there's only one logical conclusion. Downgrade all rookies because it's rare they'll make an impact... and downgrade all 2nd year RBs because it's rare they'll make an impact... and downgrade all 3rd year RBs since it's rare they'll make an impact... and downgrade all 4th year RBs...

I obviously wasn't referencing his 3 carries as the sole contributor to "preseason action"...obviously this includes training camp work, scrimmages etc.

He hasn't looked unimpressive during TCs and such... because he hasn't been around! From the little anyone has seen of him, he was the best back on the roster.

 

[LHUCKS]

Gotta take off for a date.

SSOG, thanks for hanging in there and keeping it civil...I'll be back to continue this debate.

 

[SSOG]

Gotta take off for a date.SSOG, thanks for hanging in there and keeping it civil...I'll be back to continue this debate.

Please, arguing is my one true joy, no thanks necessary. Have fun on your date. Bring some numbers with you when you come back.

 

[SSOG]

Oh, one more reason to love Moreno. He comes from the Conference of Champions.

 

[gonzobill5]

Granted, last year had an unusual number of excellent RBs, but... Since 2002, there have been 15 rookie RBs who ended the season with over 160 fantasy points (more than 2 per season). Also, every year had at least one rookie surpass that threshhold.

The big thing for me with drafting rookie RBs is it seems that they often fall into one of two categories:

A: enter the league way over-hyped, get handed the starting job, and hit their peak or get injured before the fantasy playoffs

B: enter the league with competition for the starting job, win it eventually, then really light it up in the second half of the season

Moreno doesn't seem to have the hype of previous 1st round picks, and there is certainly competition in Denver.

Of course, this is an over simplification. But it would be an interesting study to break down the first and second half splits among rookie running backs. You always hear about the "rookie wall" - does this apply to 1st round picks more often than 2nd or 3rd? Then you also hear about a guy having "fresh legs" late in the season, does this apply to later picks more than first rounders?

 

[CBower4545]

SSOG

I can't imagine it being said any better. Well done. At first I thought this thread was funny, but now I am just starting to feel kinda bad. Not that the premise is that crazy just some of the the reasons for it.

 

[MCguidance]

Top 24 doesn't justify an ADP of #55...you need more upside than RB#24.Do you understand why?

Moreno is being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. If the 26th RB off the board performs as a top-24 RB, then he justified his ADP. Do you understand why?You want higher than "Top 24"? Fine. 1.6 rookies a season have finished as top 14. That not impactful enough for you? .9 rookies a season have finished as top 10 RBs. You claimed it was rare for a rookie to have an impact. You were spectacularly wrong.Typical LHUCKS thread:1. Make absurd claim without any substantiating data.2. Repeat claim in the face of contrary evidence (that, unlike your claim, is substantiated)3. Repeat claim one last time and finish with "do you really not understand that?" as if your worldview (which demonstrably flies in the face of reality) should be self-evident.One of your reasons for ranking Moreno low is because it's "rare" for rookie RBs to "make an impact". That reason is spectacularly wrong- it is incredibly common for rookie RBs to make an impact.Another of your reasons was that he looked mediocre in preseason action, which is equally ludicrous. For one, "preseason action" consisted of 3 carries. For another, he averaged 6 ypa on those three carries, so even if you want to play small sample size theater, he still performed well.

 

[moleculo]

Gotta take off for a date.SSOG, thanks for hanging in there and keeping it civil...I'll be back to continue this debate.

how was the date?