Why Do You Care Where you Draft? (1 Viewer)

[Black]

This post is part rant (stop the insanity?) and part question.

In a sea of questions like:

Where's the best draft position?

Should I go RB-RB-QB?

What should I do at Pick 3 when I get to round 2-3?

I got to thinking. Why does it matter? If where you draft and blindly choosing players at certain fixed positions, and doing it all based on the arbitrary rankings in front of you and the rest of your league...if this is what drives your draft, why do any research? You are essentially letting the draft come to you, choosing purely based on Value...so that means your team will look different on 5 different drafts. And you are using the same cheat sheets as 1/2 the world.

In theory, short of the top 10 players, you CAN have any player in the draft. Hate the risk of players in the 1st? Fine, go get Roddy White and just bump up the other players you like later in the draft. Noone is forcing you to take SJax or Randy Moss.

I am a big believer in value drafting, but think you can tailor your team based on value you expect to find in each round, but with your picks dictated by the players you want at each pick, as opposed to who falls to you.

Questions:

What sets you apart? How do you dominate your draft? Draft Dominator? Better cheatsheets?

 

[Lehigh98]

Questions:

What sets you apart?

We do auctions so I don't have to worry about this crap.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I don't care.....you can win from any draft spot...at some point in the draft we all probably have that moment where our draft has it's deciding moment (I'm going to be strong here if I go this direction, but suffer a little here).....after that, your research and homework needs to pay off.....because in order to win, sometimes you have to hit on a couple of those "swing for the fence" guys that end up outperforming their draft position........

most of your work should be done before the draft....you should be able to walk in with ranking sheet of some sort (even if it's not how you would rank them) and a sheet where you track all the other owners picks and be able to dominate the draft.....

I know the Dominator is a good tool, and many people use it....I never have, mostly because I am not a laptop carrying guy, and the places I have drafts don't always have easy internet access, etc.....and I wouldn't want to be walking into a draft solely counting on good connections, power, etc.....but I also think something can be lost when you are having to continually put information into that thing during the draft and then seeing/relying on what it spits back at you.....caught up in numbers and who has what left, etc....

I crank out a VBD sheet....and a sheet where I keep track of the other teams by position.....

 

[LittlePhatty]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.

This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

Roddy White might be a bad 1st round pick for you simply because he probably would have been available in the 2nd round. You could have taken someone else AND Roddy.

But if you are convinced that another owner will take him ahead of you, and your gut says he'll put up 1,800 and 20 TDs, then take him and ignore the taunts.

 

[Black]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.Anyways, I think you can make a bad pick on a player who is 'too valuable to pass up' just based on your cheatsheets. I guess if you 'don't mind that guy at that pick', then go for it. But there seems to be something wrong with just taking pure value as it falls. However, you have to recognize value, especially for players you like, and know when to go for them.

 

[VaTerp]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.Anyways, I think you can make a bad pick on a player who is 'too valuable to pass up' just based on your cheatsheets. I guess if you 'don't mind that guy at that pick', then go for it. But there seems to be something wrong with just taking pure value as it falls. However, you have to recognize value, especially for players you like, and know when to go for them.

I'm not really seeing your point here. I agree with what the poster above said. Cheat sheets and draft position help you determine who you can wait on and when you have to pull the trigger on certain guys. Of course you can win your league and should have a strategy drafting from any position but I still care where I draft because my draft spot can determine who I have to reach for and when, who I have absolutely no shot at getting, who I can wait on, etc.And this is another reason why I am a 100% advocate for AUCTIONS. It makes any argument over draft order moot.

 

[FUBAR]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.

This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

Roddy White might be a bad 1st round pick for you simply because he probably would have been available in the 2nd round. You could have taken someone else AND Roddy.

But if you are convinced that another owner will take him ahead of you, and your gut says he'll put up 1,800 and 20 TDs, then take him and ignore the taunts.

This is true to a degree. I tend to have an ADP list with players highlighted who I want. If I have pick #10 in a 12 team draft, I'm probably targetting just 3 players as I know I'm not getting one of the big 4, most likely not Gore, maybe AJ. I look down the list and see which of my highlighted players I like best as a combo. My list might look something like:RB Chris Johnson, TEN

RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX

RB Ray Rice, BAL

RB Frank Gore, SF

WR Andre Johnson, HOU

RB Michael Turner, ATL

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR

WR Randy Moss, NE

RB Steven Jackson, STL

WR Reggie Wayne, IND

WR Calvin Johnson, DET

QB Drew Brees, NO

RB Ryan Grant, GB

WR Miles Austin, DAL

WR Roddy White, ATL

RB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

QB Peyton Manning, IND

When it's my turn, the following remain:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

RB Steven Jackson, STL

WR Reggie Wayne, IND

WR Calvin Johnson, DET

QB Drew Brees, NO

RB Ryan Grant, GB

WR Miles Austin, DAL

WR Roddy White, ATL

RB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

QB Peyton Manning, IND

Now, I don't draft the players I don't highlight. So my choices are:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

QB Drew Brees, NO

RB Ryan Grant, GB

WR Roddy White, ATL

QB Peyton Manning, IND

Rodgers is my top player, but as Peyton and Brees remain, I suspect one of the 3 will drop to me. So unless I like Rodgers a lot more than Brees or Manning, I don't draft him despite him being top on my list. That leaves me Ryan Grant and Roddy White. I might look at bye weeks, but probably not until much later (If I did, I'd notice 3 have week 10 byes). I might want to ensure I don't have two Packers (honestly, I don't care), maybe there are other considerations but in the first two rounds there aren't many I care about. IMO, the makeup of the team becomes more a factor later in the draft, but the concept remains.

So I probably draft Ryan Grant at 1.10 despite #15 on my list. It's flexible though as if a player like Austin fell to my 3rd round pick, although he's not highlight, I'll scoop him up. It's not so much an avoid list as it guides an easier decision making process as the draft goes on.

 

[HenryWinklerRulez]

I don't care where I draft. I win no matter what.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.

I thought we were talking about the early rounds. Your original post mentioned the first 3 rounds, and that's where draft position matters the most. Your original question was "Why do you care where you draft?". Now you're talking about Round 10, and draft position doesn't mean much at all down there.That's why I went with Roddy White example, since you brought him up.You may not like Randy Moss, but he has a better chance to produce points than most receivers.So even though Roddy is your guy, you can get both Roddy and Moss and increase your odds of having a better team.ADP gets blurry after about 6 rounds, so you can only use it to help you guess. You may think Palmer will be there for you in the 10th, but someone could snipe him away and you are left with a Cutler that you didn't want in the first place.

 

[BigJim®]

Doing research doesn't mean you prefer the options you expect to be available. I drafted out of 1.2 and 1.7 this season and by a significant measure I preferred the options available at 1.2, particularly beginning of the 3rd, beginning of the 5th, with almost no sacrifice in the 2nd/4th, which offered pretty constant value IMHO. I do agree in later rounds you should be able to get your deeper targets no matter where you draft.

 

[FUBAR]

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.

I thought we were talking about the early rounds. Your original post mentioned the first 3 rounds, and that's where draft position matters the most. Your original question was "Why do you care where you draft?". Now you're talking about Round 10, and draft position doesn't mean much at all down there.That's why I went with Roddy White example, since you brought him up.

You may not like Randy Moss, but he has a better chance to produce points than most receivers.

So even though Roddy is your guy, you can get both Roddy and Moss and increase your odds of having a better team.

ADP gets blurry after about 6 rounds, so you can only use it to help you guess. You may think Palmer will be there for you in the 10th, but someone could snipe him away and you are left with a Cutler that you didn't want in the first place.

Sure, as far as which players you get, draft position matters most early. But, I find it easier to get the players I want each round if I'm near the ends but not at the end. This has been covered in detail before but picking #2/11 or even 3/10 allows you to better predict which players will make it back to you from the turn. Might not be enough to make much difference, but it makes things somewhat more fun IMO. I hate picking #5-8 or 1/12 - I'll do it of course, and I've won leagues from those spots, but I prefer the "near-ends"

 

[SSOG]

Sure, as far as which players you get, draft position matters most early. But, I find it easier to get the players I want each round if I'm near the ends but not at the end. This has been covered in detail before but picking #2/11 or even 3/10 allows you to better predict which players will make it back to you from the turn. Might not be enough to make much difference, but it makes things somewhat more fun IMO. I hate picking #5-8 or 1/12 - I'll do it of course, and I've won leagues from those spots, but I prefer the "near-ends"

I was about to say the opposite- I love those middle picks and hate the ends. There's nothing worse than seeing a player start falling two picks after I go and watching him fall for a round and a half only to get scooped a pick or two before it gets back to me. The nice thing about being in the middle is that you have a great shot at landing anyone who starts to slide. You can be where good value goes to die. In my opinion, if you're drafting near the middle, you simply aren't doing your job unless you make you get called a ******* for sharking someone else's pick multiple times.

 

[inca911]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

 

[big0mar]

To suggest that all draft positions are equal is ridiculous. You're assuming that the difference between the #1 and #2 player is equal to the difference between the #4 and #5 player, for example.

If you think that Chris Johnson will score twice as many fantasy points as anyone else, then you should care about drafting #1. Now I don't believe that to be the case, but there is a comparative value.

 

[footballnerd]

The draft will get you going but the Waiver Wire will set you apart.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

I'm drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the first round no matter where I draft.

 

[Black]

To suggest that all draft positions are equal is ridiculous. You're assuming that the difference between the #1 and #2 player is equal to the difference between the #4 and #5 player, for example.If you think that Chris Johnson will score twice as many fantasy points as anyone else, then you should care about drafting #1. Now I don't believe that to be the case, but there is a comparative value.

I guess what I mean is draft position (in a serpentine draft, say), and ultimately, how your team pans out.When people say, "If I draft at 1-3, I will go RB-WR-QB, but if I am at 9-10, I will go WR-WR-RB...". I just don't think you can generalize that much. I also don't see why you would be content with two completely different teams depending on if you draft from the 3 spot or the 8 spot.I know people want those top picks...For example, I elected to take a top 3 pick in my redraft to try to nab Andre Johnson (didn't happen, but was worth the shot). If there was not enough talent there to tempt me IN THE FIRST ROUND, I would have dropped to say 9 or 10 spot and look for value at that 1-2 turn. But ultimately, the rest of my draft is probably not that different than what it would have been.I agree the first round will be different, but does draft spot really influence your overall draft strategy? I think it has influenced mine, which is why I ask the question. Why should we let it?

 

[SSOG]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:1 + 20 = $1392 + 19 = $1353 + 18 = $1254 + 17 = $1235 + 16 = $1186 + 15 = $1167 + 14 = $1148 + 13 = $1149 + 12 = $10910 + 11 = $106So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

Who says draft order has to be dictated by random chance? I'm a big fan of letting the person with the worst record last season pick his draft position, and then letting the person with the second worst record pick second, and so on down the line. Call it a built-in parity mechanism.

 

[SSOG]

Except when people start throwing games in order to improve their positioningh the following year.

I've never seen anybody throw games in a REDRAFT league to try to improve draft positioning. If it happens, make a rule to deal with it, just like you do in dynasty leagues.

 

[hotboyz]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.Anyways, I think you can make a bad pick on a player who is 'too valuable to pass up' just based on your cheatsheets. I guess if you 'don't mind that guy at that pick', then go for it. But there seems to be something wrong with just taking pure value as it falls. However, you have to recognize value, especially for players you like, and know when to go for them.

I'm not really seeing your point here. I agree with what the poster above said. Cheat sheets and draft position help you determine who you can wait on and when you have to pull the trigger on certain guys. Of course you can win your league and should have a strategy drafting from any position but I still care where I draft because my draft spot can determine who I have to reach for and when, who I have absolutely no shot at getting, who I can wait on, etc.And this is another reason why I am a 100% advocate for AUCTIONS. It makes any argument over draft order moot.

I think this is exactly why i will always prefer drafts over auctions i love this part of fantasy fottball the strategy involved in the draft thinking of who to pass on and who will be available i love this

 

[lazyike]

Why do I care where I draft? I really don't as long as the place is air conditioned and there's beer

 

[FUBAR]

Sure, as far as which players you get, draft position matters most early. But, I find it easier to get the players I want each round if I'm near the ends but not at the end. This has been covered in detail before but picking #2/11 or even 3/10 allows you to better predict which players will make it back to you from the turn. Might not be enough to make much difference, but it makes things somewhat more fun IMO. I hate picking #5-8 or 1/12 - I'll do it of course, and I've won leagues from those spots, but I prefer the "near-ends"

I was about to say the opposite- I love those middle picks and hate the ends. There's nothing worse than seeing a player start falling two picks after I go and watching him fall for a round and a half only to get scooped a pick or two before it gets back to me. The nice thing about being in the middle is that you have a great shot at landing anyone who starts to slide. You can be where good value goes to die. In my opinion, if you're drafting near the middle, you simply aren't doing your job unless you make you get called a ******* for sharking someone else's pick multiple times.

We should draft together more.

 

[HenryWinklerRulez]

You want to be drafting at the back end of the round this season because this is the year you should be going WR-WR. There is soooo much value RB's later int he draft that you could easily snatch a first round type RB in the money rounds 3-8 while the super stud WR are all gone because now you're lookin at loser scrubs like chad ochocinco in those rounds. I am a winner, trust me I know things.

 

[FUBAR]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

 

[BaBastage]

Non-playoff teams get a weighted lottery pull for draft spot.

 

[roadkill1292]

I maintain that the ONLY bad pick is one that would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round.This is what a cheat sheet is for. It's not there to determine who you should pick, but who you can wait on.

I think this is the thought that I am disagreeing with. I am completely on-board with taking a guy where you have to take him. For example, in my Keeper draft (team below), I took Cutler in the 9th as my QB2, knowing I was going to be able to swing around and get Palmer in the 10th as my QB1. Cutler was a flyer, but I thought he might be taken by someone else before the 10th.Anyways, I think you can make a bad pick on a player who is 'too valuable to pass up' just based on your cheatsheets. I guess if you 'don't mind that guy at that pick', then go for it. But there seems to be something wrong with just taking pure value as it falls. However, you have to recognize value, especially for players you like, and know when to go for them.

I'm not really seeing your point here. I agree with what the poster above said. Cheat sheets and draft position help you determine who you can wait on and when you have to pull the trigger on certain guys. Of course you can win your league and should have a strategy drafting from any position but I still care where I draft because my draft spot can determine who I have to reach for and when, who I have absolutely no shot at getting, who I can wait on, etc.And this is another reason why I am a 100% advocate for AUCTIONS. It makes any argument over draft order moot.

I think this is exactly why i will always prefer drafts over auctions i love this part of fantasy fottball the strategy involved in the draft thinking of who to pass on and who will be available i love this

I'm sure that about 20,000 people here understand exactly what you mean with this statement but it is a completely alien concept to me.

 

[LittlePhatty]

You want to be drafting at the back end of the round this season because this is the year you should be going WR-WR.

You can go WR-WR-WR from the 1.01 spot. That's what the OP is saying.You could get Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson and Marques Colston.It's unlikely you'll get Andre at 1.12.And I agree with the concept that you shouldn't resign yourself to a strategy simply based on the draft position you have.Just ask the people who drew the 1.04 spot last year and drafted Matt Forte just because everyone said they should.

 

[inca911]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

Your thinking is completely wrong. The disparity in the top performers is what makes the first two rounds so critical. Drafting first, I have two players worth $39 more than the two players owned by the person drafting last. That doesn't change in later rounds. Also remember that player values are more linear in later rounds, so the serpentine draft method results in similar total valuations of player pairs. The first two rounds are non-linear, so going first is better--17% better in the 2010 example.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I am in agreement with someone who commented that they liked the middle round draft picks. I usually was in always in the position to get a stud Qb like Manning or Brees in the 2nd round. I have for years drawn the 7th or lower pick, and I liked my team.

This year, I drew the #2 and #3 pick in both my money leagues. The first draft picking from the 3 spot, I had to sit and watch some of my favorite players all get plucked out in front of me, and ended up with an RB heavy team, and a late round QB and TE. By the time it got back to me at 4.10, Gates, Finley, and Clark were all taken just a few tantalizing picks ahead of me. I "settled" for Zach Miller in the 8th.

Still, it's not my kind of team, but I am trying to adapt to it. Some it was value based drafting, but a lot of it was just the long stretch between picks.

The one entertaining aspect of picking at the ends is that I ended up screwing over the guy at the five hole, as I purposely closed out tiers that he needed, while loading up on value.

My other draft's tommorow (2 spot) and I get to draft against the same dude (5 spot), we'll see if I can use the same strategy.

 

[abe froman]

I care where I draft because I love wings and not all bars provide free food or discounts towards the bill along with draft materials/kits like they used to..

Oh wait, was this a venting thread for bad draft spots?? , or why auctions are they way to go.. Every draft position carries a little different strategy; run some mocks, expect a couple curveballs but at the end of the day be ready to abandon specific plans and just take the best player that falls to you.

 

[SSOG]

We should draft together more.

Name the time and place.

 

[coolnerd]

I am in general agreement that I am fine in any draft spot, but my preference is the corners. I feel like that I generally get a player who falls to me, but at the same I can get a player at that I want who is at the start of a positional run. In the middle I feel like a choose bewten the two options.

 

[fightingillini]

Except when people start throwing games in order to improve their positioningh the following year.

I've never seen anybody throw games in a REDRAFT league to try to improve draft positioning. If it happens, make a rule to deal with it, just like you do in dynasty leagues.

I have. And we do. Non-playoff teams get a weighted lottery pull for draft spot.

Another way to do it to have a losers bracket opposite the playoff bracket. Winner gets the 1st pick, 2nd place gets 2nd pick and so on. Win the Toilet Bowl, get the first pick next year.....seems fair to me.

 

[Deadzone21]

Except when people start throwing games in order to improve their positioningh the following year.

I've never seen anybody throw games in a REDRAFT league to try to improve draft positioning. If it happens, make a rule to deal with it, just like you do in dynasty leagues.

Maybe letting the 6th week standings (or any other mid-season standing) determine next years draft may solve that problem.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

We have 2, 1-man keeper drafts.

A couple of teams had no one to keep (essentially a 1st rd pick), a couple of teams were cut and dry, and a couple of teams had numerous players that they had to cut loose, and you would salivate over. SO, I was begging for an early pick. (I got one )

As far as redrafts, I just need a list of players and can go from there. It doesn't matter what slot you are in.

I participated in my first auction draft this year, and while I like the set-up, the draft was slow and the bidding was out of hand. (This was our 1st auction league-wide). Everyone was "Gung Ho", and it got out of hand quickly. People were out of cash after 4 people (we drink alot), some "laid low" and tried to steal. It was a cluster####.

Bottom line: It doesn't matter where you draft, if you are prepared, prepare to roll with the "goofy" swings/runs, prepare to stick with your gut, and prepare to get that not so great feeling when Jermichael Finley was just taken a pick in front of you at 2.02.

 

[Black]

As far as redrafts, I just need a list of players and can go from there. It doesn't matter what slot you are in.

I think that's what I mean, albeit said much more succinctly. You have your 'guys'/target players based on your research. You have a list to know about where they go in the draft so you can lay out a plan to maximize value in each round. But, after the first round, any player is available to you.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

Your thinking is completely wrong. The disparity in the top performers is what makes the first two rounds so critical. Drafting first, I have two players worth $39 more than the two players owned by the person drafting last. That doesn't change in later rounds. Also remember that player values are more linear in later rounds, so the serpentine draft method results in similar total valuations of player pairs. The first two rounds are non-linear, so going first is better--17% better in the 2010 example.

I think mostly what this serves to do is make the guy who picks first feel 17% better about his team before the games start. I'd be shocked if it turned out that the #1 spot typically EARNED almost a 20% bump over the wrap over the course of a season. That 17% represents nothing but confidence factor.

 

[Sam Quentin]

It depends which players you are targeting

for example:

If you like Andre Johnson and want him on your team, you don't want to draft in the early slots, because you could get a uch better second rounder and AJ from a later slot

 

[Sam Quentin]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:1 + 20 = $1392 + 19 = $1353 + 18 = $1254 + 17 = $1235 + 16 = $1186 + 15 = $1167 + 14 = $1148 + 13 = $1149 + 12 = $10910 + 11 = $106So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

This is why I am a big fan of the double serpentine.

 

[inca911]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

Your thinking is completely wrong. The disparity in the top performers is what makes the first two rounds so critical. Drafting first, I have two players worth $39 more than the two players owned by the person drafting last. That doesn't change in later rounds. Also remember that player values are more linear in later rounds, so the serpentine draft method results in similar total valuations of player pairs. The first two rounds are non-linear, so going first is better--17% better in the 2010 example.

I think mostly what this serves to do is make the guy who picks first feel 17% better about his team before the games start. I'd be shocked if it turned out that the #1 spot typically EARNED almost a 20% bump over the wrap over the course of a season. That 17% represents nothing but confidence factor.

Why would you be shocked? It's the expected result. If we simply use 2009's actual stats (available on FBG) and VBD numbers of the top 20 players, the data are as follows:CJ3 = 197

Peterson = 140

Rodgers = 124

MJD = 122

Rice = 102

Andre = 100

Randy = 92

Brees = 88

Austin = 86

Gore = 80

TJones = 80

DeSean = 78

Vernon = 76

Fitz = 75

Dallas = 73

Wayne = 72

Favre = 68

Schaub = 66

Gates = 65

Ricky = 64

So the combined scoring of the first two rounds are:

#1 = 261

#2 = 205

#3 = 190

#4 = 190

#5 = 174

#6 = 173

#7 = 167

#8 = 164

#9 = 164

#10 = 160

That's 100 more VBD points from drafting first over drafting last, 45 more VBD points from going second, and 30 more VBD points going third or fourth. The majority of the advantage comes from the predicted top picks from last year; players like CJ3, Peterson, and MJD.

I do agree that the accuracy of projections definitely comes in play, however drafting in the top few spots last year likely resulted in either Peterson or CJ3 of MJD on your team. Their VBD values provided a distinct and significant advantage, and one that was also predictable. The teams going later in the draft have zero chance to get these players.

Naturally getting a player like Miles Austin helped teams last year, as did owning Matt Schaub. However all teams have a more equal chance to identify and get those breakout types of players, so the playing field levels out as the uncertainty in projections increases. The math doesn't lie. Drafting in an early position provides a very real and unfair advantage that is largely predictable. There's a reason most leagues let the worst teams go first the next year. It gives that advantage to the worst player to try and help them out. I prefer an even playing field, and auctions provide just that.

 

[Fat Nick]

IMO, the bottom line is that it depends on the year...and truthfully, any variance year-to-year in the top 1-3 rounds will be completely washed out by how you do in the later rounds. The first rounds rarely win you a title. They -can- lose you one through injuries. It's the middle-late rounds that separate the sharks from the chum.

Last year, I finished 2nd in my league with Tomlinson and Slaton as my top 2 picks. Fortunately, I picked up Ray Rice in the 10th, Julius Jones in the 6th or 7th, along with Pierre Thomas who was dropped after the 2nd week, and then added B. Wells at some point. The strength of my team was my WR core of Wayne, Jennings, and H. Ward (and later D. Bowe acquired via trade). I think I ran with McNabb at QB most of the year. The moral of this story is that Ray Rice and Hines Ward as later round pick-ups had more to do with me winning than my top 2 picks, which essentially I could've used on kickers. I think combined I started LT/Slaton 3-4 times all season.

So given my assumption that the strength of a team is built later, not with the first 2 picks, where do I like to pick?

Answer: the middle.

Reason: You are less vulnerable to position runs and can react more quickly when you see someone with an open need that may try and snatch one of your value picks later on.

If I pick, say 5-1, and I'm looking TE...do I take a top TE now? Maybe...If I do, I might give up a potential WR2 or QB. If I don't, and the next guy takes Gates, there's a good chance they'll be done with the top 5 TE's before I pick again, 20-24 picks later. I'd much rather pick at 5-5/5-6 where if I pass on Gates, for example, I've got a shot at someone on the way back around.

Just my

 

[SSOG]

Why would you be shocked? It's the expected result. If we simply use 2009's actual stats (available on FBG) and VBD numbers of the top 20 players, the data are as follows:CJ3 = 197Peterson = 140Rodgers = 124MJD = 122Rice = 102Andre = 100Randy = 92Brees = 88Austin = 86Gore = 80TJones = 80DeSean = 78Vernon = 76Fitz = 75Dallas = 73Wayne = 72Favre = 68Schaub = 66Gates = 65Ricky = 64So the combined scoring of the first two rounds are:#1 = 261#2 = 205#3 = 190#4 = 190#5 = 174#6 = 173#7 = 167#8 = 164#9 = 164#10 = 160That's 100 more VBD points from drafting first over drafting last, 45 more VBD points from going second, and 30 more VBD points going third or fourth. The majority of the advantage comes from the predicted top picks from last year; players like CJ3, Peterson, and MJD.I do agree that the accuracy of projections definitely comes in play, however drafting in the top few spots last year likely resulted in either Peterson or CJ3 of MJD on your team. Their VBD values provided a distinct and significant advantage, and one that was also predictable. The teams going later in the draft have zero chance to get these players.Naturally getting a player like Miles Austin helped teams last year, as did owning Matt Schaub. However all teams have a more equal chance to identify and get those breakout types of players, so the playing field levels out as the uncertainty in projections increases. The math doesn't lie. Drafting in an early position provides a very real and unfair advantage that is largely predictable. There's a reason most leagues let the worst teams go first the next year. It gives that advantage to the worst player to try and help them out. I prefer an even playing field, and auctions provide just that.

This post perfectly illustrates why the whole "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it" adage is nonsense. There was no single action you could possibly take that would have a greater impact on you winning your league than hitting a home run with your first rounder. The gap between the best player in the league and the second best player in the league is always just so ludicrous. Meanwhile, if you miss on your first rounder, you're still easily within striking distance of the 4th or 5th best team in the league.

 

[FUBAR]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

Your thinking is completely wrong. The disparity in the top performers is what makes the first two rounds so critical. Drafting first, I have two players worth $39 more than the two players owned by the person drafting last. That doesn't change in later rounds. Also remember that player values are more linear in later rounds, so the serpentine draft method results in similar total valuations of player pairs. The first two rounds are non-linear, so going first is better--17% better in the 2010 example.

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing against the notion that the person drafting first has an advantage, but if your draft is 12 rounds, your stated 17% advantage doesn't hold up. It's hard to do the math without the numbers, but presuming the 3rd round picks are worth somewhere between $40 (for the #1 team) and $36 (#10 team), then the 4th round is between $35 (#10) and $31 (#1), the 5th round on is probably balanced pretty equally (for the sake of argument, let's say $30, $25, $20, $15, $10, $5, $3, $1) That gives the #1 team $321 ($139+$40+$31+$111) and the $12 team $288 ($106+$36+$35+$111); still an advantage of 11%, so more than I figured at first, but it's not 17%.

My gut tells me the difference is greater in smaller leagues with smaller rosters. Still, plenty of reason to go with auctions instead of draft.

FWIW, we just did a 10 team redraft, the #1 team yielded:

1. (1) Chris Johnson

2. (20) Philip Rivers

3. (21) Pierre Thomas

4. (40) Ricky Williams

5. (41) Joe Flacco

6. (60) Matt Ryan

7. (61) Jeremy Maclin

8. (80) Heath Miller

9. (81) Baltimore

10. (100) Austin Collie

11. (101) Donald Driver

12. (120) Robert Meachem

13. (121) LaDainian Tomlinson

The #10 team yielded:

1. (10) Randy Moss

2. (11) Peyton Manning

3. (30) Jamaal Charles

4. (31) Miles Austin

5. (50) Marion Barber

6. (51) Joseph Addai

7. (70) Reggie Bush

8. (71) Kyle Orton

9. (90) Pittsburgh

10. (91) Knowshon Moreno

11. (110) Greg Olsen

12. (111) Mason Crosby

13. (130) Tim Hightower

I happen to like the #1 team better, but I won't be surprised if the #10 team does better.

 

[FUBAR]

I think mostly what this serves to do is make the guy who picks first feel 17% better about his team before the games start. I'd be shocked if it turned out that the #1 spot typically EARNED almost a 20% bump over the wrap over the course of a season. That 17% represents nothing but confidence factor.

Why would you be shocked? It's the expected result. If we simply use 2009's actual stats (available on FBG) and VBD numbers of the top 20 players, the data are as follows:
Peterson = 140

Rodgers = 124

MJD = 122

Rice = 102

Andre = 100

Randy = 92

Brees = 88

Austin = 86

Gore = 80

TJones = 80

DeSean = 78

Vernon = 76

Fitz = 75

Dallas = 73

Wayne = 72

Favre = 68

Schaub = 66

Gates = 65

Ricky = 64

So the combined scoring of the first two rounds are:

#1 = 261

#2 = 205

#3 = 190

#4 = 190

#5 = 174

#6 = 173

#7 = 167

#8 = 164

#9 = 164

#10 = 160

That's 100 more VBD points from drafting first over drafting last, 45 more VBD points from going second, and 30 more VBD points going third or fourth. The majority of the advantage comes from the predicted top picks from last year; players like CJ3, Peterson, and MJD.

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I do agree that the accuracy of projections definitely comes in play, however drafting in the top few spots last year likely resulted in either Peterson or CJ3 of MJD on your team. Their VBD values provided a distinct and significant advantage, and one that was also predictable. The teams going later in the draft have zero chance to get these players.

Naturally getting a player like Miles Austin helped teams last year, as did owning Matt Schaub. However all teams have a more equal chance to identify and get those breakout types of players, so the playing field levels out as the uncertainty in projections increases. The math doesn't lie. Drafting in an early position provides a very real and unfair advantage that is largely predictable. There's a reason most leagues let the worst teams go first the next year. It gives that advantage to the worst player to try and help them out. I prefer an even playing field, and auctions provide just that.

Thing is, CJ wasn't picked in the first few picks (I took him at 2.7 in one of my redrafts, granted in a 2 QB league but as the 12th RB). We even had one guy around here insist that Steve Slaton would be the better player.ETA: there's plenty of chance to get top performing players although it does take luck, my last two picks in that draft were Mendenhall and Harvin.

 

[Dave Larkin]

I actually don't care where I draft at all. You make a good point - if you are prepared and have clarity on which players you like and don't like, it should be no problem.

 

[inca911]

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing against the notion that the person drafting first has an advantage, but if your draft is 12 rounds, your stated 17% advantage doesn't hold up. It's hard to do the math without the numbers, but presuming the 3rd round picks are worth somewhere between $40 (for the #1 team) and $36 (#10 team), then the 4th round is between $35 (#10) and $31 (#1), the 5th round on is probably balanced pretty equally (for the sake of argument, let's say $30, $25, $20, $15, $10, $5, $3, $1)

That gives the #1 team $321 ($139+$40+$31+$111) and the $12 team $288 ($106+$36+$35+$111); still an advantage of 11%, so more than I figured at first, but it's not 17%.

My gut tells me the difference is greater in smaller leagues with smaller rosters. Still, plenty of reason to go with auctions instead of draft.

I believe we are in violent agreement that auctions are much better than drafts. But your estimation of how much better the #1 pick in the draft is vs. the #10 pick is not correct.The advantage of having one of the the top picks not only holds up for more rounds, the advantage actually increases over the duration of the draft, up to 20%. This makes sense, as the person who picks first continues to have a small incremental advantage over other later picks, round after round. This is because the players continue to group together as the draft progresses, not spread apart. Let's look at the math. Running the numbers through 6 rounds for a $200 team cap using this year's auction values, you get the following dollar values for the various draft positions:

#1 = $222

#2 = $218

#3 = $203

#4 = $205

#5 = $198

#6 = $194

#7 = $192

#8 = $193

#9 = $186

#10 = $184

That's $184 worth of players for #10 spot vs. $222 worth of players for #1 spot, which is a >20% advantage. Of course accuracy of projections will not be perfect, but a 20% advantage over other teams is way too much.

 

[FUBAR]

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing against the notion that the person drafting first has an advantage, but if your draft is 12 rounds, your stated 17% advantage doesn't hold up. It's hard to do the math without the numbers, but presuming the 3rd round picks are worth somewhere between $40 (for the #1 team) and $36 (#10 team), then the 4th round is between $35 (#10) and $31 (#1), the 5th round on is probably balanced pretty equally (for the sake of argument, let's say $30, $25, $20, $15, $10, $5, $3, $1)

That gives the #1 team $321 ($139+$40+$31+$111) and the $12 team $288 ($106+$36+$35+$111); still an advantage of 11%, so more than I figured at first, but it's not 17%.

My gut tells me the difference is greater in smaller leagues with smaller rosters. Still, plenty of reason to go with auctions instead of draft.

I believe we are in violent agreement that auctions are much better than drafts. But your estimation of how much better the #1 pick in the draft is vs. the #10 pick is not correct.The advantage of having one of the the top picks not only holds up for more rounds, the advantage actually increases over the duration of the draft, up to 20%. This makes sense, as the person who picks first continues to have a small incremental advantage over other later picks, round after round. This is because the players continue to group together as the draft progresses, not spread apart. Let's look at the math. Running the numbers through 6 rounds for a $200 team cap using this year's auction values, you get the following dollar values for the various draft positions:

#1 = $222

#2 = $218

#3 = $203

#4 = $205

#5 = $198

#6 = $194

#7 = $192

#8 = $193

#9 = $186

#10 = $184

That's $184 worth of players for #10 spot vs. $222 worth of players for #1 spot, which is a >20% advantage. Of course accuracy of projections will not be perfect, but a 20% advantage over other teams is way too much.

I'd love to see your data as to why the players value spread apart when most of us can't even agree on who would be pick 6.01 vs. 6.12 as well as an explanation as to why you aren't giving the #10 team an equal advantage on even rounds.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Draft position matters, a lot. Looking at 2010 auction values for the first two rounds of a serpentine draft, in order of total player values as a function of pick order, you get the following results for a $200 total auction dollar amount per team:

1 + 20 = $139

2 + 19 = $135

3 + 18 = $125

4 + 17 = $123

5 + 16 = $118

6 + 15 = $116

7 + 14 = $114

8 + 13 = $114

9 + 12 = $109

10 + 11 = $106

So there is a $33 difference in total player value from drafting first to tenth. That's a 16.5% total handicap or advantage over other teams, which is why drafts suck. Of couse a good owner can salvage a tenth round draft spot, but should random chance dictate a 17% advantage?

That's only true if your draft is two rounds.

Your thinking is completely wrong. The disparity in the top performers is what makes the first two rounds so critical. Drafting first, I have two players worth $39 more than the two players owned by the person drafting last. That doesn't change in later rounds. Also remember that player values are more linear in later rounds, so the serpentine draft method results in similar total valuations of player pairs. The first two rounds are non-linear, so going first is better--17% better in the 2010 example.

I think mostly what this serves to do is make the guy who picks first feel 17% better about his team before the games start. I'd be shocked if it turned out that the #1 spot typically EARNED almost a 20% bump over the wrap over the course of a season. That 17% represents nothing but confidence factor.

Why would you be shocked? It's the expected result. If we simply use 2009's actual stats (available on FBG) and VBD numbers of the top 20 players, the data are as follows:CJ3 = 197

Peterson = 140

Rodgers = 124

MJD = 122

Rice = 102

Andre = 100

Randy = 92

Brees = 88

Austin = 86

Gore = 80

TJones = 80

DeSean = 78

Vernon = 76

Fitz = 75

Dallas = 73

Wayne = 72

Favre = 68

Schaub = 66

Gates = 65

Ricky = 64

So the combined scoring of the first two rounds are:

#1 = 261

#2 = 205

#3 = 190

#4 = 190

#5 = 174

#6 = 173

#7 = 167

#8 = 164

#9 = 164

#10 = 160

That's 100 more VBD points from drafting first over drafting last, 45 more VBD points from going second, and 30 more VBD points going third or fourth. The majority of the advantage comes from the predicted top picks from last year; players like CJ3, Peterson, and MJD.

I do agree that the accuracy of projections definitely comes in play, however drafting in the top few spots last year likely resulted in either Peterson or CJ3 of MJD on your team. Their VBD values provided a distinct and significant advantage, and one that was also predictable. The teams going later in the draft have zero chance to get these players.

Naturally getting a player like Miles Austin helped teams last year, as did owning Matt Schaub. However all teams have a more equal chance to identify and get those breakout types of players, so the playing field levels out as the uncertainty in projections increases. The math doesn't lie. Drafting in an early position provides a very real and unfair advantage that is largely predictable. There's a reason most leagues let the worst teams go first the next year. It gives that advantage to the worst player to try and help them out. I prefer an even playing field, and auctions provide just that.

Nobody picked Chris Johnson with the first overall pick last year.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

More delightful still, MFL shows that CJ's average draft position last year was 10th. So I guess picking at the end of the first must be where the real advantage lies, by the logic in this thread.

 

[inca911]

Nobody picked Chris Johnson with the first overall pick last year.

We're talking top few picks vs. last picks. Peterson and MJD were, and they had similar impressive values. Depending on league scoring, CJ3 was probably there at #9 or #10 maybe 50% of the time.