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Why do you disagree with the projections? (1 Viewer)


First - FBG/Dodds do a GREAT/Thorough job of projections; I couldn't comprehend doing this for every game/player.

The purpose of this thread is to share information/insight on why you might disagree with the rankings/projections...

We all follow certain players/teams; Many of us have an idea of rankings before we look.

There are times where I look and say player a should be higher or player b should be lower (plenty of times I change players TO these rankings)

Again, no disrespect intended - to post, you must come up with reasons you think the player will under/over perform FBG projections (similiar to the thread discussing Bloom's ranking of CJ this week).

Maybe we can learn/help each other (or never do this again).

I arbitrarily (sp) set 25% as the difference - we can discuss raising it if this thread lasts til next week (Ideally your belief is based on carries, receptions, yards per rec/carry and NOT touchdowns as that is a littler harder to predict)

OVER Perform projections by 25% (My scoring is 1 pt per 10 yards and ppr (.5 for rb):

Chris Johnson (13.7)

Cincy gave up long runs to a wr and qb last week; I just see him breaking of 2+ long runs that will exceed yardage projections

CPortis (9.8)

NO = bad def and they are missing 3

CP may not be the best, but no one runs harder; his ypc will be higher than projections and at some point they throw more to him

Those are my strongest, others:

Sammy (9.8)

I THINK NE will run more this week; game should be close and he gets 50% of carries + goal line

MJD (11.5)

If Fred is king of running up the middle and Jax has no OL middle - I think MJD gets a few more carries and some extra receptions

EarnestG (15.0)

TB should control/lead game throughout; I would think they would rely on EG vs. new starting quarterback. I think Gruden makes

up for not giving him more carries last week. 1+ td's

Marvin H (13.9)

Nit picking here. If you can't run on Minny, you throw it. Marvin should get more catches than projected and his ypc will be higher than last week.

What are you insights??

Shooting from the hip analysis:

Favre - could be "bad Favre" due to pressure from the Pats d line infused with the new saviors of the season mentality

Palmer - Haynesworth might not play / may be gimpy. Palmer has lit up Tennessee before.

Portis - Zorn will feed the ball to his chief critic and NO is missing 3 starters on D

Bush - Skins at home with an angry defense. Mr. Kardasian could get his ### handed to him.

Selvin Young - just to mess with fantasy owners, Ratface could give him 25 touches

Kevin Faulk - back from his doobie brothers jacket vacation, screen city against the J-E-T-S

TO - random results against the Eagles; I'm guessing he flops this time out.

B Marshall - justing easing back in with a second playmaker in the receiving corps now


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