On my custom cheatsheet (which is PPR), Welker is all the way down to 40th. You've had him in the top-10 the past couple of weeks and were pretty high on the dude. Then on the sell-high article, you suggested trading him away. Why the sudden drop off in rankings? Not feeling it anymore? I can't fathom benching him for Cotchery or Roy Williams but now you have me thinking. lol! Is there something I don't know? Watson is still out correct?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Why does Bloom Rank Welker so low? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Katism
- Start date
I've subscribed to Footballguys for years. It's an okay site but their projections are usually pretty bad. Every year I will print off their projections and compare them to year end, and it's actually kind of funny how far off they are. For example, I think most guys knew that Frank Gore was a serious break out candidate last year, but he was nowhere near a top ten RB in their projections.
They basically take the previous year's actual performance and make modest adjustments. Their custom cheatsheets are no better. I can't remember which one of them it was who was on this board earlier this year saying how Wes Welker "isn't very talented." It was before the season started or just after the season started and I just couldn't believe how uninformed an opinion that was. I mean, what makes you a "Footballguy" anyway? You sit on your couch and watch football better than I do?
Just wanted to throw that out there because Footballguy projections annoy me.
They basically take the previous year's actual performance and make modest adjustments. Their custom cheatsheets are no better. I can't remember which one of them it was who was on this board earlier this year saying how Wes Welker "isn't very talented." It was before the season started or just after the season started and I just couldn't believe how uninformed an opinion that was. I mean, what makes you a "Footballguy" anyway? You sit on your couch and watch football better than I do?
Just wanted to throw that out there because Footballguy projections annoy me.
Thunderchicken
Footballguy
knuckles69
Footballguy
What is so hard to figure out?Andre Johnson's ready to get back on the field any day. You gotta look all the way down into the 60's and 70's to find him the last couple weeks. Figure that one out.
Their projections seem to be along the lines of "bird in the hand"Andre Johnson's ready to get back on the field any day. You gotta look all the way down into the 60's and 70's to find him the last couple weeks. Figure that one out.
RavensUNFL
Footballguy
Personally, as long as Brady and Moss are starting I think Welker is a great play. Moss will always get double coverage CB/S and that means most of the time Welker will be in single coverage against a 3 or 4 CB/S and Brady usually will find the open man, which seems to be Welker a lot this year. I say don't depend on someone else's gut feeling to choose your line-up, if your a true football fan and you understand match-ups and FF in general, make your own gut calls.
Well of course. I know you follow your gut instinct. I just think it's a valid question to ask one of the "experts" why he ranks Welker so low this week when he had the guy ranked in the top-10 the past 2? The dude is on fire.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Serious question: which site has better rankings?
buzzhunter
Footballguy
Maybe playing the #1 pass defense has something to do with it?
GregR_2
Footballguy
It seems to me your comments have a lot more to do with the nature of football and predicting it than it does with any particular set of projections. If it was obvious someone will breakout to where they deserve being in the top ten, then they wouldn't be considered a "candidate". Every year there are a dozen guys who are candidates and many times they fail. NFL personnel who actually get to see these guys first hand, break down tape, and know the particular of what was supposed to happen on the play and who goofed, often get this stuff wrong.Are projections pretty bad compared to full hindsight reality? Yes, they are. That's the nature of the game.
Last edited by a moderator:
That's what I do. But it has made me ask myself, why do I pay for this site? I don't want to sound like a jerk, I think Joe Bryant and all of the contributors seem like genuinely good guys, I just don't think that, based upon a long history of taking a look at their projections etc., that they know any more than I do. I think Rotoworld has better projections. They aren't so conservative. For example, they had Brandon Jacobs ranked in their top ten. Of course, he got hurt but who can predict that? In the games he has played, he's been outstanding. Footballguys had him ranked waaaaay low. Footballguys also had MJD ranked WAAAY too high. I totally disagreed with these two assessments and have been right.Also, I was beside myself when they had Randy Moss ranked so low. To me, that was a joke. I don't remember what the preseason rank was, but it was certainly not top 10.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ozymandias
Footballguy
I can see a couple of reasons for the downgrade. They are playing the #1 pass defense, and Watson should be back. But they are only informed guesses, which is all any of us can do.
Vegas thinks the Patriots are about 7 points better than the Colts. That is an informed guess, and should make the money about even. But it is just a guess.
Vegas thinks the Patriots are about 7 points better than the Colts. That is an informed guess, and should make the money about even. But it is just a guess.
Same here. I could really use the link to the site that knows everything that will happen in the NFL ahead of time. joelib must dominate his/her leagues knowning all the stats ahed of time.Umm, they are footballguys because we (you included) pay them to be.
knuckles69
Footballguy
Moss was WR27. Just checked DD from my draft.
My passing numbers for the Pats are lower than their norm because I do think that Maroney will get his biggest workload of the year. I was looking at both Welker and Stallworth's numbers this morning, thinking they were a bit low with Watson likely out (I originally projected with Watson in), so I might bump them a bit, but probably not enough get them into the top 20.
What are you their mom or something? I think there is a happy medium between more logical and accurate forecasting and omniscience. All I'm saying is their projections and the methodology they use to formulate those projections (TOO conservative, to heavily based on previous year's performance) are pretty bad.
the_sig
Footballguy
You are aware that Indy has a pretty stout pass DEF, right? This won't exactly be like mowing down Miami. Hence, higher rankings for the likes of Welker when playing vs. the likes of Miami, and lower rankings vs. pass defenses like Indy. Also, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but Indy has a pretty decent offense as well. They might be actually able to score more points than some of the Pat's recent victims....which would keep Brady & Co. off the field a bit longer as well.
On the sell high article, I think Bloom actually says he likes Welker, Stallworth, etc...but that if you COULD convert him into a top 15 dynasty type WR, that COULD be a good sell high idea? Seems like a reasonable idea, no? Unless you think Welker has established himself as a top 15WR for dynasty purposes? I think he has looked great so far this year, but are you saying he is now a top 15 dynasty WR?
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Katism, are you still alive in the FBG subscriber contest? Just wondering because Bloom and many of the FBG staff still are.
That makes sense. A lot of the talking heads say this will be Brady's lowest statistical game of the year as the Pats will just run, run, run. I'll be juggling this around all weekend. hah.. Cotchery, Roy Williams, or Welker.
I gave Welker another catch and greater probability of a TD on the news that Watson is out, pushing him up, but not into the no brainer start tier. You have to remember - although Welker is hot right now, he was pedestrian from weeks 2-5 - he's not as much of a lock to produce every week as some of the #1s, even though he clearly has just as much upside.
Last edited by a moderator:
I know Indy has a stout Defense but Welker is a top 5-7 receiver based on your league's scoring. And when someone who has been that good all year (Chad Johnson, etc.), then don't bump them down 30+ spots. When Chad Johnson goes up against the Ravens, they only bump him down to just outside the top 10. They don't bump him down to the 40s.You are aware that Indy has a pretty stout pass DEF, right? This won't exactly be like mowing down Miami. Hence, higher rankings for the likes of Welker when playing vs. the likes of Miami, and lower rankings vs. pass defenses like Indy. Also, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but Indy has a pretty decent offense as well. They might be actually able to score more points than some of the Pat's recent victims....which would keep Brady & Co. off the field a bit longer as well.
I entered an hour late unfortunately.
hacman
Footballguy
So, who is happier right now: the guy that took Jacobs in the 2nd or 3rd round or the guy who missed on him because he wasn't available in the 4th round? Do you think the fact that Jacobs has a hard time staying healthy have anything to do with FBG's lower ranking?FBG is not above scrutiny, but you calling them out on projections is misguided, particularly with your supporting arguments. They try to make this hobby as scientific as possible, but the reality is that it's kinda hard to predict the future with a high degree of accuracy.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I don't get the Jacobs reference. He is currently ranked 29th in FBG scoring, so those who ranked him low seem to have hit the nail on the head. My reason for ranking him low was the injury thing. His upright running style makes him prone to injuries, so while you can't predict them, they are definitely a factor when deciding a ranking. You can't just use the games he has played in to determine how good his overall season is. The zero's he has gotten while on the bench with his injury is a major factor and it DOES count. This is only one example, but you are criticizing people who had Jacobs ranked low, in the 20's or so, and praising those who ranked him in the top 10. He is 29th in scoring right now. I'd say those who picked him low have been correct. As for projections, that is a whole different animal. I don't think there is a rocket science to it, and there is no way to predict how a game will unfold. Also, don't look at where they are projected, look at the projected fantasy points. Sometimes players can be a small amount of points from being ranked 10 spots higher, for example. What you should do is use them as a reference, and add or subtract for some players that you feel strongly about. Or look deeper into some that you don't agree with. There is no man alive that can be perfect in projections. Projections take a LOT of work. They are a reference, not the end all.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
If we still are, what then?
wraith5
Footballguy
I have respect for the guys that are posting in the Pool in August, sharing their rankings, debating, challenging where FBG Experts rank this guy or that... the guys who don't ever post and never contribute any value to this community who second guess and bash 1/2 way through the year... not so much respect for those guys.
jpeace121
Footballguy
Road Warriors
Footballguy
I know they rank #1 vs. the pass, giving up 165 / gm. What I'm curious about with the Ind passing D ranking is how much is attributed to the passing offenses they've played. JAX, TEN and CAR rank at the bottom of the league in passing( 26,27 & 29), TB and DEN rank just in the middle of the pack( 13 & 15 ). NO(8) I discount the ranking due to a very poor start to the season. That game was an anomoly. HOU is a top 10 passing team(4), but did face Indy without their leading receiver. Is Indy's passing D really that stout?You are aware that Indy has a pretty stout pass DEF, right? This won't exactly be like mowing down Miami. Hence, higher rankings for the likes of Welker when playing vs. the likes of Miami, and lower rankings vs. pass defenses like Indy. Also, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but Indy has a pretty decent offense as well. They might be actually able to score more points than some of the Pat's recent victims....which would keep Brady & Co. off the field a bit longer as well.
eom
Footballguy
I'd say it's good , but the rating is exaggerated because of the horrible passers they've played.
a few years ago I made ratings for run d, pass d, etc by calculating how the team in question impacted their opponents' averages.
I'd be more interested in knowing that indy holds a team to 60% pass productivity than holding an average of quinn gray, young, carr, and whoever to 160 yds/game.
regardless of all that, you can't just look at one stat based on a bunch of other teams and evaluate a game by it.
last year, minny had this great run defense, so the pats went to the air and beat their ###.
other teams don't have the defense that the pats do and can't keep their offense in as long.
look at top differential in the pats games so far, even though I just broke my own rule.
not to mention the other teams don't have the pats' personnel...
a few years ago I made ratings for run d, pass d, etc by calculating how the team in question impacted their opponents' averages.
I'd be more interested in knowing that indy holds a team to 60% pass productivity than holding an average of quinn gray, young, carr, and whoever to 160 yds/game.
regardless of all that, you can't just look at one stat based on a bunch of other teams and evaluate a game by it.
last year, minny had this great run defense, so the pats went to the air and beat their ###.
other teams don't have the defense that the pats do and can't keep their offense in as long.
look at top differential in the pats games so far, even though I just broke my own rule.
not to mention the other teams don't have the pats' personnel...
Saints-Man
Footballguy
Either the way, it is going to be fun to bump this thread after the game on Sunday.
super sleeper
Footballguy
Why bring up preseason rankings in a discussion of weekly projections? Reading comprehension not your thing, or just looking to #####?My observation is that those that gripe the most about the site are probably the ones that rely the most heavily on it. Do your own work and use the site as a guide and source of information and you won't be so angry or jealous that some make a living off this stuff.
I never gripe. This is the second year I have used footballguys and it's the BEST site for any information fantasy-football related. When you listen to Faletti, Bloom, and Lammey on the Audible, they sound like they know what the hell they're talking about. I'm not saying I follow them to a T but they're just another EXCELLENT resource to use when I'm drafting, setting line-ups, making trades, etc.
mdog1967
Footballguy
Bloom has been pretty FIING good to say the least this year. I dont do the DODD rankings anymore they just make me post negative BS that seems to get me suspended every other day. But I agree those that guess before the season starts are more apt to win my respect. Bloom alone this year has made the money spent well worth it, Otherwise in FFBL terminology it the paid content would be a bust. That Dodd has allowed decent and objective opinions is a credit and will make it less difficult to come back. They are human and dont like the critical people(that would be me) talkin smack, but hey its their site and its their right to refuse service to anyone.
I brought it up to emphasize a point that FBG projetions (preseason or otherwise) are usually pretty far off. I don't think it's that hard to connect the dots on that one genius. What I DID say was that my own projections are pretty much always more accurate because I'm not looking to cover my own ### to paying customers when I make projections. So, perhaps it is you could stand to read a little more carefully?As an aside, I love these guys who think they are NFL scouts talking about Brandon Jacobs' "upright running style" as if they have any idea what they are talking about. The guy got a sprained MCL. How does his upright running style have anything to do with that? And I noticed that no one touched my coments about MJD or Randy Moss. It's pretty easy to selectively choose which stats you want to defend. While we are on Jacobs, it makes more sense to evaluate players based upon points per game because injuries are not predictable. In my league, he's in the top 12 in points per game at his position. If injuries were taken into consideration in their ranks, they wouldn't have guys like Brian Westbrook ranked so high. That guy is hurt every week for God's sake.
Well, we are glad to learn about who your respect and don't respect. I don't have much respect for guys that say things like "contribute value to my fantasy football blogging community." Seems like someone who probably is afraid of girls. Go contribute value to your World of Warcraft community and get some E-respect by slaying a dragon or some $h%t.
fsufan
Footballguy
I saw his source's 99% proclamation, and I was counting on that until he missed practice on Friday. I am very torn on whether to project Watson in or out, but since it is a late afternoon start, it seems safer to project a zero and not induce anyone to start Watson...
Last edited by a moderator:
Brutis
Footballguy
lol
Folks,
I do want to step back and say I always encourage discussion like this - Dodds and I put a ton of thought into our projections, but it's only what bounces around in our gourds - and another complicating factor is that I project independently of how the numbers make the rankings turn out - I think its the only honest way to do it - so of course steering clear of revealing too much subscriber info, I definitely welcome criticism of the projections, and at the very least youll get to see what I was thinking...
I do want to step back and say I always encourage discussion like this - Dodds and I put a ton of thought into our projections, but it's only what bounces around in our gourds - and another complicating factor is that I project independently of how the numbers make the rankings turn out - I think its the only honest way to do it - so of course steering clear of revealing too much subscriber info, I definitely welcome criticism of the projections, and at the very least youll get to see what I was thinking...
Pat Patriot
Footballguy
I dont think you can just use PPG and you cant say that Jacobs is ranked 29th in FF points. How valuable Brandon Jacobs has been depends on your team. Do you have a decent (AVE) guy on the bench as a fill in? If so, Jacobs is VERY valuable. If you add Jacobs points with what an average replacement would score, he would be ranked much higher than 29th RB. If you have little to no depth, the games Jacob has missed make him less valuable on your team.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
FF projections are a futures market, if you can be right predicting what players are going to do for a full season you also should be buying and selling pork bellies!
eom
Footballguy
and if you're good enough to make the playoffs, you don't give a crap about him losing the first 4 games.if he keeps getting injured, that'll be an issue, although you can say that about a lot of rb's, but right now I think he's top 3 for the second half, which includes playoffs.I'd take a playoff performer over a week 3 guy every season, but I wouldn't bust some guy's balls over a bad projection --- these guys aren't jesus.if you pay for info, you should be paying for qualitative commentary to evaluate, not just some numerical ranking.
wraith5
Footballguy
It's interesting to me that you took my general comment so personally - I'll give you credit for being self aware enough to realize you contribute nothing of value - if I had to guess, I'd say that comment probably applies to more areas than just FBG. My basic point, which I think you may have missed while your Mom was telling you to use that clever World of Warcraft comment, was that there are a lot of guys who come to this site, buy a subscription and think the rankings are the Word until they're 1-7 and getting crushed by guys who actually know something about football. Then they come back here and whine more than my 2 year old about how Dodds screwed up. It's very easy in hindsight (that means looking at the past) to point out flaws in the early projections. But in my experience, the only guys who do that are the ones who have never once gone out on a limb and posted their own projections or contributed anything but a weak one-liner to an actual football discussion. ... by the way, send me a link to that Warcraft community site, OK? I've never played but slaying dragons sure sounds interesting.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
wraith5
Footballguy
I don't care what Faletti says - you're at least as funny as Lammey, if not moreso.
Similar threads
