Why is everyone down on Painter this week? (1 Viewer)

[marbotty]

Looks like most fantasy experts have pegged Painter as around the #15 range for starters this week, with the highest ranking that I could find at #10.

Is there something I'm missing? He's got a great matchup against New Orleans, still has a full complement of skill players (Addai aside), and has thus far performed pretty well, with one of the better TD:INT and YPA in the league.

I see him going around 260 yds with 2-3 TDs, which I think should be good enough to get him ranked anywhere in the 5-10 range of QBs this week. New Orleans hasn't really been much of a threat to intercept, so I don't think there's too much danger of him incurring negative points.

Seems I am in the definite minority here, I'm just wondering why there's such pessimism around him. I know he's not Peyton Manning, but he's inherited a good team, and that's usually enough to be a recipe for success, barring complete incompetence.

 

[BroadwayG]

I've got him at #1.

 

[packersfan]

I'd start him with confidence if I had him. He'll probably have to throw it a ton and the Saints' defense hasn't shown much. Sheer volume of pass attempts should help Painter put up good numbers. Looks like Joseph Addai practiced today. If he can play that will help.

 

[cubbie5150]

I was wondering the same. Saints D shouldn't be scaring anyone this year; they're pretty uninspiring--can't get pressure, no ball-hawking, allergic to tackling.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

I live in Indy and I'm not a Colts fan but I do watch most of the games.

Painter has looked decent, but he's not faced a lot of pressure defense. When he has he's buckled (see second half vs. Chiefs). Seems to get rattled easily.

I think he'd be an OK guy to start in a pinch but there have to be better options in most leagues.

 

[Clifford]

They took away Garcon last week and his numbers tanked. NO will just watch the Cincy film and do the same thing.

 

[shadyridr]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

 

[yoman]

I live in Indy and I'm not a Colts fan but I do watch most of the games.Painter has looked decent, but he's not faced a lot of pressure defense. When he has he's buckled (see second half vs. Chiefs). Seems to get rattled easily.I think he'd be an OK guy to start in a pinch but there have to be better options in most leagues.

I was going to say something along the same lines. I don't think this is that favorable of a matchup for Painter because I expect Gregg Williams to confuse the heck out of him with constant pressure.

 

[duaneok66]

Williams will pressure Painter in the dome . . . blowout expected . . .

 

[Johnny Blood]

I'm starting him with exuberance.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think we may see an Orlovsky or Collins sighting.

Seriously, Painter's not ready for this.

 

[doeseatplace]

Because he's Curtis Painter

 

[DoubleG]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

This. He simply isn't that good. A backup QB with a good matchup is still a backup QB. It's the same reason that with Leshore and Best out, people aren't rushing (no pun intended) to pick up M. Morris or K. Williams.

 

[packersfan]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

This. He simply isn't that good.

I agree but in this day and age a QB doesn't need to be great to put up great fantasy numbers. Painter has already topped 275 yards passing twice, including once against a defense (Tampa Bay) that's arguably better than the Saints. From a volume perspective, you can't ask for a better matchup for Painter. The Colts will likely have to throw it a lot to try and keep up with the Saints. Like Josh Freeman last week (who came into that game playing very poorly), the matchup lends itself to good fantasy production for the QB. I could see Painter finishing with 250+ yards and 1-2 TDs Sunday night.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

This. He simply isn't that good.

I agree but in this day and age a QB doesn't need to be great to put up great fantasy numbers. Painter has already topped 275 yards passing twice, including once against a defense (Tampa Bay) that's arguably better than the Saints. From a volume perspective, you can't ask for a better matchup for Painter. The Colts will likely have to throw it a lot to try and keep up with the Saints. Like Josh Freeman last week (who came into that game playing very poorly), the matchup lends itself to good fantasy production for the QB. I could see Painter finishing with 250+ yards and 1-2 TDs Sunday night.

Not saying your theory is necessarily wrong, but Newton and Cutler both had pedestrian days against the Saints defense and they are both significantly better than Painter. And both were also playing from behind for most of the game. The Saints are a good front-running defense. It's when the game is competitive that they fall apart.

 

[packersfan]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

This. He simply isn't that good.

I agree but in this day and age a QB doesn't need to be great to put up great fantasy numbers. Painter has already topped 275 yards passing twice, including once against a defense (Tampa Bay) that's arguably better than the Saints. From a volume perspective, you can't ask for a better matchup for Painter. The Colts will likely have to throw it a lot to try and keep up with the Saints. Like Josh Freeman last week (who came into that game playing very poorly), the matchup lends itself to good fantasy production for the QB. I could see Painter finishing with 250+ yards and 1-2 TDs Sunday night.

Not saying your theory is necessarily wrong, but Newton and Cutler both had pedestrian days against the Saints defense and they are both significantly better than Painter. And both were also playing from behind for most of the game. The Saints are a good front-running defense. It's when the game is competitive that they fall apart.

There are definitely no guarantees. But I do like Painter to produce this week. He may toss an INT or two if the Saints can mount some pressure but I still think 250+ and 1-2 TDs is very realistic for Painter this week. I'd take that if I needed to start him.

 

[Clifford]

What you're not factoring in is that it takes a little bit of time (about 2 full games) to get enough film on a player to pick up his tendencies. Cincy obviously got the requisite amount, saw that he favored Garcon, took Garcon away, and his numbers went south. Saints will do the same.

 

[Johnny Blood]

It's true that the numbers have shown that he favors Garcon, but Wayne was emphatic that Painter should be the QB this season. He wasn't doing that out of charity. Wayne had reason to believe Painter would get him the ball and it may start happening for real.

I'm not singing Painter's praises but if they take Garcon away it's not like there's a slouch on the other side.

 

[packersfan]

What you're not factoring in is that it takes a little bit of time (about 2 full games) to get enough film on a player to pick up his tendencies. Cincy obviously got the requisite amount, saw that he favored Garcon, took Garcon away, and his numbers went south. Saints will do the same.

I think the Bengals have a better defense than the Saints. I haven't seen anything from the Saints so far that would lead me to think they have a strong defense. Every QB they've faced has thrown at least one TD against them and three have topped 300 yards against them. Newton wasn't great against them but he threw two TDs. Cutler put up 244-1. The only QB they've really shut down was Gabbert and he's been awful. Maybe Painter stinks too but he has a lot more weapons than Gabbert does. In a game which lends itself to a lot of Indy passing, I think Painter's a good play this week. I just haven't been very impressed with the Saints defense so far this season.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

I just haven't been very impressed with the Saints defense so far this season.

Nor should you be. They suck.Having said that, they are still the type of defense that rattles and gets in the head of young QBs. Painter may very well put up decent numbers, I just think that in most league there just has to be a better option.

 

[Lascelle]

I don't think Painter is being docked this week due to a perception of the Saints defense being good against the pass.

They're not. Every fantasy metric points to this.

The reason Painter is being docked is due to "how" the Saints defense operates.

They're extremely blitz-happy and the perception is that while the Saints aren't good at stopping most passing attacks, the one thing they ARE proficient at keys right in on a very critical Painter weakness.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just scooped him up to start over Matt Moore. I like his chances.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just haven't been very impressed with the Saints defense so far this season.

Nor should you be. They suck.Having said that, they are still the type of defense that rattles and gets in the head of young QBs. Painter may very well put up decent numbers, I just think that in most league there just has to be a better option.

I'm not so sure about that. They got to Blaine Gabbert, but Cam Newton (27) and Josh Freeman (25) just feasted on them. I think that might have more to do with Gabbert being protected by the coaches than anything the Saints did. 24 of 35 for 280 yards and 1.5 scores is a pretty good line on him I think. Around 20 fantasy points.

 

[Captain Hook]

Looks like most fantasy experts have pegged Painter as around the #15 range for starters this week, with the highest ranking that I could find at #10.Is there something I'm missing? He's got a great matchup against New Orleans, still has a full complement of skill players (Addai aside), and has thus far performed pretty well, with one of the better TD:INT and YPA in the league.I see him going around 260 yds with 2-3 TDs, which I think should be good enough to get him ranked anywhere in the 5-10 range of QBs this week. New Orleans hasn't really been much of a threat to intercept, so I don't think there's too much danger of him incurring negative points. Seems I am in the definite minority here, I'm just wondering why there's such pessimism around him. I know he's not Peyton Manning, but he's inherited a good team, and that's usually enough to be a recipe for success, barring complete incompetence.

If this is not a expedition, please tell us who you are ranking him above to get him into the 5-10 range:RodgersBreesStaffordRomoNewtonRoethlisbergerSchaubRiversCassel Tebow--------even Freeman, Cutler, Flacco, Hasselbeck, or McCoy might be better plays this week

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He'll struggle this week, he's not that good. There's a chance his numbers will be Ok due to them being beind but he's definately Qb2 material. If you have him going this week in a Qb1 league, you are really reaching IMO.

 

[TheAssassin]

Rivers might suck against NYJets D which is giving up least points to QBs

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What you're not factoring in is that it takes a little bit of time (about 2 full games) to get enough film on a player to pick up his tendencies. Cincy obviously got the requisite amount, saw that he favored Garcon, took Garcon away, and his numbers went south. Saints will do the same.

I think the Bengals have a better defense than the Saints. I haven't seen anything from the Saints so far that would lead me to think they have a strong defense. Every QB they've faced has thrown at least one TD against them and three have topped 300 yards against them. Newton wasn't great against them but he threw two TDs. Cutler put up 244-1. The only QB they've really shut down was Gabbert and he's been awful. Maybe Painter stinks too but he has a lot more weapons than Gabbert does. In a game which lends itself to a lot of Indy passing, I think Painter's a good play this week. I just haven't been very impressed with the Saints defense so far this season.

This is In the Dome. The Saints have had two gams at home, vs the Bears and Texans, the other four have been on teh road. At night. First night game of the year. The fans will be loaded and loud.Vs the team faced in the Super Bowl.It's a different animal. It's true Schaub - with Tate, with Johnson, Daniels - got the Texans out to an early lead, quieted things a bit. Second half, things changed. One of those tD's was a freak play. The Bears not so much, Cutler was lucky to get that TD, it took two very bad, ridiculous penalties on the defense. I kind of see this going the way of the Bears game, maybe Painter will get the TD maybe not.

 

[marbotty]

Looks like most fantasy experts have pegged Painter as around the #15 range for starters this week, with the highest ranking that I could find at #10.Is there something I'm missing? He's got a great matchup against New Orleans, still has a full complement of skill players (Addai aside), and has thus far performed pretty well, with one of the better TD:INT and YPA in the league.I see him going around 260 yds with 2-3 TDs, which I think should be good enough to get him ranked anywhere in the 5-10 range of QBs this week. New Orleans hasn't really been much of a threat to intercept, so I don't think there's too much danger of him incurring negative points. Seems I am in the definite minority here, I'm just wondering why there's such pessimism around him. I know he's not Peyton Manning, but he's inherited a good team, and that's usually enough to be a recipe for success, barring complete incompetence.

If this is not a expedition, please tell us who you are ranking him above to get him into the 5-10 range:RodgersBreesStaffordRomoNewtonRoethlisbergerSchaubRiversCassel Tebow--------even Freeman, Cutler, Flacco, Hasselbeck, or McCoy might be better plays this week

Rogers, Brees, Stafford, and Romo should all outscore Painter. Odds are that 5 of the next 6 outscore him, too, but that would still get him in the top 10. I could see Rivers faltering against the Jets. Roethlisberger will likely play well, but they've been leaning heavily on the run this year so they might score their TDs on the ground. Cassell and Tebow also have good matchups but they're essentially question marks - Tebow with lack of experience, Cassell with his terrible play earlier in the year.Newton's obviously good for a ton of yardage, but he's been held in check (well, sort of in check against NO) the last couple of games and has more INTs than TDs on the season. The Redskins are a much better defense than what he's seen lately. I don't know how Schaub will do, though Tennessee has been pretty effective against the pass with the exception of the game against the Steelers.I like McCoy, this week, too, but not the other guys you mentioned.

 

[shadyridr]

Curtis Painter stinks... HTH

yup

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Its a pretty damning indictment on Painter's play when Orlovsky can find both Wayne and Collie for big plays on his first drive and Painter seems to have eyes for Garcon only.

 

[Young 8]

Looks like most fantasy experts have pegged Painter as around the #15 range for starters this week, with the highest ranking that I could find at #10.

Is there something I'm missing? He's got a great matchup against New Orleans, still has a full complement of skill players (Addai aside), and has thus far performed pretty well, with one of the better TD:INT and YPA in the league.

I see him going around 260 yds with 2-3 TDs, which I think should be good enough to get him ranked anywhere in the 5-10 range of QBs this week. New Orleans hasn't really been much of a threat to intercept, so I don't think there's too much danger of him incurring negative points.

Seems I am in the definite minority here, I'm just wondering why there's such pessimism around him. I know he's not Peyton Manning, but he's inherited a good team, and that's usually enough to be a recipe for success, barring complete incompetence.

 

[Bri]

Dude was a plumber's helper four weeks ago, just got promoted to painter and you expect what here?

 

[Chicken Hawkin]

Now you see why every1 was down on him. Now send him home to the ww.If you ever consider picking him up again, just remember 62-7. Saints D is avg or maybe slightly above and dude got shut down.