Why is Reggie Bush a better prospect than (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

There are some highlights of Bush and Williams available on this page (about the middle):

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf;_ylt=Atr9VUh...c2WPjvRYus5nYcB

This isn't really the best of either player, but I can't possibly see how someone could look at these and say that Williams is the better of the two. In fact, I don't think he looks very good at all. People knock Bush for a lack of size, but Williams looks a lot smaller.

Personally, I think anyone who passes on Bush for Williams and Maroney is going to regret it for a long time.

 

[Stinger Ray]

it mattered for frany gore and jamie jackson too.

Would you be talking about Frank Gore who with 2 bad shoulders is still out on the field busting his butt, scoring TD's and averaging more YPC than Cadillac and Ronnie Brown?It that the Frank Gore you think is a wimp? The one RUNNING over people and busting tackles every carry.

@ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

 

[P Boy]

There are some highlights of Bush and Williams available on this page (about the middle):

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf;_ylt=Atr9VUh...c2WPjvRYus5nYcB

This isn't really the best of either player, but I can't possibly see how someone could look at these and say that Williams is the better of the two. In fact, I don't think he looks very good at all. People knock Bush for a lack of size, but Williams looks a lot smaller.

Personally, I think anyone who passes on Bush for Williams and Maroney is going to regret it for a long time.

That's the issue. It's not which RB looks better running in college. It's which RB has their skills transfer better at the next level. I could post a bunch of college RBs who put up great numbers in college & failed miserably at the pro level - starting with JJ Arrington last year - who a bunch of people here put at or near the top of the RB list from last year. Johnny Rogers, Archie Griffin, Lorenzo White, etc etc etc.In fact, Johnny Rogers was just as electric as Bush, and he washed out completely in the pros.

Bush has 200 lbs (dripping wet) spread out over 6'-0". Williams has 220 lbs spread over 5'-10". Williams is the prototypical size/weight ratio for a number of very successful RBs, where Bush is extremely light for his height.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Man, I hate that I miss the first two pages of this thread. To address a few things...1. Many people have been talking about Williams for 3 years around here. The fact that he had a great performance last night certainly fosters much conversation, but it's not like he's new on the radar.2. Memphis has played tougher defenses tan people are willing to give them credit for. However, seeing as how the same people are trying to argue that USC has played tough defenses, it isn't surprising. Fact is, there is nothing clearcut to suggest that Reggie Bush's statistical achievements on the ground are any more or less impressive than Williams. 3. Williams reminds me of Shaun Alexander in more ways than 1. I expect him to go a bit higher in the draft than SA did, but they remind me of each other a great deal. However, Williams appears to be faster than Alexander was at a similar point.

 

[Bevo]

The Pac 10s D and talent dwarfs that of Conf USA.

I'd be real careful proclaiming any kind of superiority for Pac-10 defenses. 7 of those 10 defenses are ranked 84th (out of 117) or worse in total defense. 4 of them rank 105th or worse (105, 106, 111, and 114). There is not one single Pac-10 D ranked in the top 30; and only one in the top 40. I'm not sure where Conference USA ranks, but it would be almost impossible for them to be too much worse than the Pac-10 on defense.

Might that be due to the fact that the Conference fields 3 of the top 10 and 6 of the top 26 offences in college football:2. USC

7. UCLA

9. Oregon

11. WSU

26. Cal

I would venture to guess that the talent poll from top to bottom, even on those poorly ranked Ds, is superior to that of Conference USA. Trust me I have been a long time Pac 10 "hater" around here, but they are far better than Conference USA from a talent standpoint and probably generally underrated in the scheme of things.

O.K, if you want to use that type of logic and say that the PAC-10 defenses are better than they appear to be statistically, are you also going to say the offenses are worse than they appear to be statistically? I don't see how one can have it both ways. I have watched a fair amount of PAC-10 (late night Saturdays tend to force this if you want to watch college football) and other college football this year and studied the stats quite a bit and I just can't bring myself to say that the PAC-10, as a whole, is even a mediocre conference on the defensive side of the football; most of the teams just do not look very good defensively whether playing in conference or out of conference. Just my opinion here, but it looks like most of the PAC-10 schools recruit and coach to a more offensive type of football rather than balanced or defensive type of footballs. That can certainly make for more high scoring and possibly entertaining games, but it doesn't tend to lead to great defensive teams.

FWIW, I am neither a PAC-10 "lover" or "hater", it's just another conference to me. I tend to like or dislike teams more than conferences and I happen to like several teams in the PAC-10 (Arizona, Oregon, and USC) and I don't really dislike any of the teams.

In the end I am not at all sure that there is a much better team defense in the PAC-10 as a whole than in the the C-USA or probably any other conference. Certainly there are likely to be more future NFLers in the PAC-10 on defense (at least there SHOULD be) than in C-USA. But looked at from how they play as a team perspective, I just don't see it.

 

[Jason Wood]

Man, I hate that I miss the first two pages of this thread. To address a few things...

1. Many people have been talking about Williams for 3 years around here. The fact that he had a great performance last night certainly fosters much conversation, but it's not like he's new on the radar.

2. Memphis has played tougher defenses tan people are willing to give them credit for. However, seeing as how the same people are trying to argue that USC has played tough defenses, it isn't surprising. Fact is, there is nothing clearcut to suggest that Reggie Bush's statistical achievements on the ground are any more or less impressive than Williams.

3. Williams reminds me of Shaun Alexander in more ways than 1. I expect him to go a bit higher in the draft than SA did, but they remind me of each other a great deal. However, Williams appears to be faster than Alexander was at a similar point.

I know Herd and I [and many others] were singing D. Williams' praises last year and by many indications he would've been a lock for 1st round consideration last year had he not gotten hurt late and not put himself into the mix.

I loathe the use of quality of defense argument in college...

A) Great NFL Backs, So-So Collegiate Competition = LaDainian Tomlinson (5th overall, TCU), Marshall Faulk (2nd overall, SDSU)

B) Great NFL Backs, Great Collegiate Competition = Shaun Alexander (19th overall, Alabama), Edgerrin James (4th overall, Miami), Larry Johnson (27th overall, Penn State)

There's no tride and true formula for that...the greatest receiver of all time played for a small school, arguably the best runner in the pros today played for a smaller school, Pro Bowl QBs like Steve McNair, Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre played for smaller schools.

 

[lod2005]

@ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

Laugh now because you won't be next year. Gore plays on a horrific team and averages 4.9 per carry. He has sent Barlow packing already and Brown can't even beat out a pot smoker. We will revisit this next year but you won't be around.

 

[Colin Dowling]

    @ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

Laugh now because you won't be next year. Gore plays on a horrific team and averages 4.9 per carry. He has sent Barlow packing already and Brown can't even beat out a pot smoker. We will revisit this next year but you won't be around.

1. Sending Barlow packing doesn't appear to be that tough.2. If you like Gore's 4.9 ypc so much, I bet you are salivating in love for Maurice Hicks, who goes off at 6.0

3. The "pot smoker" you referred to didn't just walk in from the Burning Man festival. He's the 2nd all time NCAA rusher, a pro-bowler, and a really good running back. THere is no shame in Ricky Williams starting ahead of you.

 

[loxoscel]

@ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

Laugh now because you won't be next year. Gore plays on a horrific team and averages 4.9 per carry. He has sent Barlow packing already and Brown can't even beat out a pot smoker. We will revisit this next year but you won't be around.

I gotta agree with LOD at this point anyway... I like Gore's seasonal stat line a lot better than either Brown or Caddie.Gore 102 500 3 4.9

Brown 199 886 4 4.5

Caddie 268 1097 6 4.1

recieving wise:

Gore 13 118 0

Brown 30 219 1

Caddie 20 81 0

and this is playing behind the horrific SF line that's been beaten up with injuries as a backup RB for most of the season.

 

[Colin Dowling]

    @ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

Laugh now because you won't be next year. Gore plays on a horrific team and averages 4.9 per carry. He has sent Barlow packing already and Brown can't even beat out a pot smoker. We will revisit this next year but you won't be around.

I gotta agree with LOD at this point anyway... I like Gore's seasonal stat line a lot better than either Brown or Caddie.Gore 102 500 3 4.9

Brown 199 886 4 4.5

Caddie 268 1097 6 4.1

recieving wise:

Gore 13 118 0

Brown 30 219 1

Caddie 20 81 0

and this is playing behind the horrific SF line that's been beaten up with injuries as a backup RB for most of the season.

I will repeat my reference to Maurice HIcks.Colin

 

[lod2005]

    @ GORE > CADDY AND RONNIE

Laugh now because you won't be next year. Gore plays on a horrific team and averages 4.9 per carry. He has sent Barlow packing already and Brown can't even beat out a pot smoker. We will revisit this next year but you won't be around.

I gotta agree with LOD at this point anyway... I like Gore's seasonal stat line a lot better than either Brown or Caddie.Gore 102 500 3 4.9

Brown 199 886 4 4.5

Caddie 268 1097 6 4.1

recieving wise:

Gore 13 118 0

Brown 30 219 1

Caddie 20 81 0

and this is playing behind the horrific SF line that's been beaten up with injuries as a backup RB for most of the season.

I will repeat my reference to Maurice HIcks.Colin

Good one. Now go look at Maurice Hicks stats. Then realize after you take out his 2 big runs he averages a pedestrian 3.5 ypc. You may now do the same with Gore. He is over 4. Ronnie Brown. 3.8 ypc. Williams. 3.8 ypc. Maurice Hicks is a good backup. Frank Gore is a stud who would be mentioned way above Williams and Brown had he not tore up his knees twice. Not only is he playing with 2 bum shoulders, he is running people over. I remember a while back after Gore's big run that people called his ypc overinflated because of that one run. We must now do the same with Cadillac and Brown. Analysis: Gore is better. Will he last as long, maybe not but he is better. Playing for the worst team of the 3 he is playing the best right now.

In case you want to discard the long runs, Gore vs Washington: 9.9 ypc. Williams. a paltry 2.0 ypc.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Ah, got me. I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats. THanks for clearing that up.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Ah, got me. I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats. THanks for clearing that up.

The "take away long runs" argument is tired, and useless.

Certain backs are more predisposed to breaking long runs (Tatum Bell, LT, SA, Willie Parker) to name a few.

To "take those long runs away" takes away a strength of certain players. That's not a fair comparison...and it's designed to make certain players look better over others, when in reality, it's not true.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I like Gore and I think he might turn out to be a good, maybe even very-good RB. But he's had 100 carries which proves that he's capable of carrying the ball less than 10 times a game and not much else. Could he turn in to a 300 carry/year back? Of course, but I'm sure even the 49'ers aren't taking it for granted that he could be that durable, at least not until he proves it.Colin

 

[jurb26]

Ah, got me. I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats. THanks for clearing that up.

The "take away long runs" argument is tired, and useless.

Certain backs are more predisposed to breaking long runs (Tatum Bell, LT, SA, Willie Parker) to name a few.

To "take those long runs away" takes away a strength of certain players. That's not a fair comparison...and it's designed to make certain players look better over others, when in reality, it's not true.

I don't care how you slice it. A guy who got 30% of his season total numbers on 1 carry and run while amassing only 41 carries for the whole year raises concerns in the minds of anyone using rational thought. This isn't like a LT or Bell or Parker situation in the least. Those guys are being used in a consistant fashion and prove that the big play is a consistant part of their game. Only time and reps can prove that, Hicks has neither. The jurry is still out and Gore looks like the better RB when you watch the games. Not only that, but his play is been more consistant and the sample size is much larger adding confidence to the judgement.

 

[Balco]

Williams has to make his decisions quicker. He does not hit the hole hard from the traditional I formation. When they run an option or draw, Williams is a lot better, skills not conducive to NFL success.Bush is a once in 20 years talent at running back, it seems like the guy is made of elastic with the types of moves he makes. He is just unbelievabley quick with receiver hands. Lendale white is a bull who is a powerful one cut runner, with deceptive speed. Williams is the # 3 at best right now.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Ah, got me.  I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats.  THanks for clearing that up.

The "take away long runs" argument is tired, and useless.

Certain backs are more predisposed to breaking long runs (Tatum Bell, LT, SA, Willie Parker) to name a few.

To "take those long runs away" takes away a strength of certain players. That's not a fair comparison...and it's designed to make certain players look better over others, when in reality, it's not true.

I don't care how you slice it. A guy who got 30% of his season total numbers on 1 carry and run while amassing only 41 carries for the whole year raises concerns in the minds of anyone using rational thought. This isn't like a LT or Bell or Parker situation in the least. Those guys are being used in a consistant fashion and prove that the big play is a consistant part of their game. Only time and reps can prove that, Hicks has neither. The jurry is still out and Gore looks like the better RB when you watch the games. Not only that, but his play is been more consistant and the sample size is much larger adding confidence to the judgement.

And I don't care how you slice it. A guy (Williams) that ranks 11th in the league in rushing despite being near-worthless in 6 games deserves enough credit to not be unfavorably compared to a 100 carry guy like Gore who is almost 2 ypc WORSE after his 10th carry than when he gets the ball early.

 

[EBF]

There are some highlights of Bush and Williams available on this page (about the middle):

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf;_ylt=Atr9VUh...c2WPjvRYus5nYcB

This isn't really the best of either player, but I can't possibly see how someone could look at these and say that Williams is the better of the two. In fact, I don't think he looks very good at all. People knock Bush for a lack of size, but Williams looks a lot smaller.

Personally, I think anyone who passes on Bush for Williams and Maroney is going to regret it for a long time.

That's the issue. It's not which RB looks better running in college. It's which RB has their skills transfer better at the next level. I could post a bunch of college RBs who put up great numbers in college & failed miserably at the pro level - starting with JJ Arrington last year - who a bunch of people here put at or near the top of the RB list from last year. Johnny Rogers, Archie Griffin, Lorenzo White, etc etc etc.In fact, Johnny Rogers was just as electric as Bush, and he washed out completely in the pros.

Bush has 200 lbs (dripping wet) spread out over 6'-0". Williams has 220 lbs spread over 5'-10". Williams is the prototypical size/weight ratio for a number of very successful RBs, where Bush is extremely light for his height.

Mark my words, Bush will weigh in at 210+ pounds when the combine rolls around. He's plenty big. Anyhow, I think you misunderstood my post. I wasn't merely saying that Bush looks better against college defenders, but also that he looks better as a prospect. He's faster and quicker than Williams. I think he could eventually end up being bigger and I wouldn't be surprised if he's more powerful. About the only advantage Williams has is a lower center of gravity. That will help him, but I don't think it's enough of an advantage to cover the gap between he and Bush in the other categories.

 

[jurb26]

And I don't care how you slice it. A guy (Williams) that ranks 11th in the league in rushing despite being near-worthless in 6 games deserves enough credit to not be unfavorably compared to a 100 carry guy like Gore who is almost 2 ypc WORSE after his 10th carry than when he gets the ball early.

What in the world does Williams have to do with this?

 

[Colin Dowling]

Williams has also shown that he can run through holes smaller than the Grand Canyon, something Bush has not displayed on a regular basis.Colin

 

[EBF]

3. Williams reminds me of Shaun Alexander in more ways than 1. I expect him to go a bit higher in the draft than SA did, but they remind me of each other a great deal. However, Williams appears to be faster than Alexander was at a similar point.

I don't see that comparison at all. In fact, there running styles are almost compeltely different. The RB in the draft who most reminds me of Shaun Alexander is actually LenDale White (although it's far from a perfect comparison). Williams appears to be quite a bit smaller than (despite what their listed sizes say) Alexander and is more of a shifty-type back. As I said earlier, the NFL RB he most reminds me of is Domanick Davis.

 

[Colin Dowling]

And I don't care how you slice it.  A guy (Williams) that ranks 11th in the league in rushing despite being near-worthless in 6 games deserves enough credit to not be unfavorably compared to a 100 carry guy like Gore who is almost 2 ypc WORSE after his 10th carry than when he gets the ball early.

What in the world does Williams have to do with this?

I was responding the the person who suggested something outrageous like "Gore >>>>> Williams and Brown"

 

[loxoscel]

Ah, got me. I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats. THanks for clearing that up.

The "take away long runs" argument is tired, and useless.

Certain backs are more predisposed to breaking long runs (Tatum Bell, LT, SA, Willie Parker) to name a few.

To "take those long runs away" takes away a strength of certain players. That's not a fair comparison...and it's designed to make certain players look better over others, when in reality, it's not true.

I don't care how you slice it. A guy who got 30% of his season total numbers on 1 carry and run while amassing only 41 carries for the whole year raises concerns in the minds of anyone using rational thought. This isn't like a LT or Bell or Parker situation in the least. Those guys are being used in a consistant fashion and prove that the big play is a consistant part of their game. Only time and reps can prove that, Hicks has neither. The jurry is still out and Gore looks like the better RB when you watch the games. Not only that, but his play is been more consistant and the sample size is much larger adding confidence to the judgement.

Your right Colin,Taking a "snapshot" of a career is really not fair. So let's look at Hicks's entire 2 year career(we can't do this for the other three since this is their inaugural year in the league). But it's hardly fair to look at Hicks from just this season when last season also counts(also his rookie year)

in '04

96 362 2 3.8

in '05

44 244 3 6.0

Career

137 606 5 4.4

Sorry Colin, Not impressed....see what happens when you insist on looking at the entire picture? Only person that Maurice beats out from the rooks of this season is Caddie

 

[jurb26]

And I don't care how you slice it. A guy (Williams) that ranks 11th in the league in rushing despite being near-worthless in 6 games deserves enough credit to not be unfavorably compared to a 100 carry guy like Gore who is almost 2 ypc WORSE after his 10th carry than when he gets the ball early.

What in the world does Williams have to do with this?

I was responding the the person who suggested something outrageous like "Gore >>>>> Williams and Brown"

Oh, gotcha.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Ah, got me.  I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats.  THanks for clearing that up.

The "take away long runs" argument is tired, and useless.

Certain backs are more predisposed to breaking long runs (Tatum Bell, LT, SA, Willie Parker) to name a few.

To "take those long runs away" takes away a strength of certain players. That's not a fair comparison...and it's designed to make certain players look better over others, when in reality, it's not true.

I don't care how you slice it. A guy who got 30% of his season total numbers on 1 carry and run while amassing only 41 carries for the whole year raises concerns in the minds of anyone using rational thought. This isn't like a LT or Bell or Parker situation in the least. Those guys are being used in a consistant fashion and prove that the big play is a consistant part of their game. Only time and reps can prove that, Hicks has neither. The jurry is still out and Gore looks like the better RB when you watch the games. Not only that, but his play is been more consistant and the sample size is much larger adding confidence to the judgement.

Your right Colin,Taking a "snapshot" of a career is really not fair. So let's look at Hicks's entire 2 year career(we can't do this for the other three since this is their inaugural year in the league). But it's hardly fair to look at Hicks from just this season when last season also counts(also his rookie year)

in '04

96 362 2 3.8

in '05

44 244 3 6.0

Career

137 606 5 4.4

Sorry Colin, Not impressed....see what happens when you insist on looking at the entire picture? Only person that Maurice beats out from the rooks of this season is Caddie

You've agreed with my point without realizing it. Gore's stats are certainly good, but to suggest he's the next great Running Back is at best worthy of an "incomplete" grade. I am admittedly getting confused at to what the hell we're talking about here, so I'll sum it up like a term paper...1. Carnell is really good, and has a chance to get better.

2. Gore has shwon to be good in small doses, and it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

3. I need a fresh beer.

 

[P Boy]

Mark my words, Bush will weigh in at at least 210 pounds when the combine rolls around. He's plenty big.

Again, you misunderstand. I don't care, and no knowledgeable GM should care, if he carries 210 lbs at the combine - unless it affects his measureables. What they should care about is whether he can carry 210 lbs in the middle of November & beyond while accumulating 15-20 cpg at the NFL level. I don't think he can do it in the day-in-day-out grind of a full NFL season - not without affecting his performance.I could much more easily see him at 190 lbs in week 12 than I could see him at 210 lbs at the same time. That can be a problem.

 

[fatness]

Gore is having offseason should surgery, if that makes any difference in this discussion.Link

Rookie RB Frank Gore, who will require offseason surgery on both shoulders, played 11 snaps in Saturday's game. When he was on the field, he was put to work, carrying 10 times for 68 yards and two TDs.

 

[EBF]

Mark my words, Bush will weigh in at at least 210 pounds when the combine rolls around. He's plenty big.

Again, you misunderstand. I don't care, and no knowledgeable GM should care, if he carries 210 lbs at the combine - unless it affects his measureables. What they should care about is whether he can carry 210 lbs in the middle of November & beyond while accumulating 15-20 cpg at the NFL level. I don't think he can do it in the day-in-day-out grind of a full NFL season - not without affecting his performance.I could much more easily see him at 190 lbs in week 12 than I could see him at 210 lbs at the same time. That can be a problem.

Every year there's a back who unjustly gets labeled as undersized. In 2003 it was Kevin Jones. In 2004 it was Cadillac Williams. This year it's Reggie Bush. I think part of the problem for all three of these guys is that they played prominent roles as true freshman and thus the image that people have of them is skewed based on memories of them from their early games. Jones ended up weighing in at 220+ pounds and, despite some minor injuries, seems to be carrying the weight just fine. It's basically the same story for Cadillac and I think it will be the same for Bush.

Keep in mind that these are young guys. It's only natural for them to gain a little bit of weight as they age. When all is said and done, I don't think Bush's weight will be an issue at all. Even if he does end up playing at 195 pounds (which I find highly, highly unlikely), that won't necessarily prevent him from achieving great success. Warrick Dunn has been a productive back. Clinton Portis has had several big years. Tiki Barber has been one of the top FF backs in recent years. Barry Sanders was one of the top FF RBs of the 1990s. I could go on and on.

Size in RBs is overrated, but it's a moot point in this discussion. Bush is plenty big and I won't be at all surprised if his NFL playing weight is greater than Williams'.

 

[lod2005]

Ah, got me. I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats. THanks for clearing that up.

That is why I brought up the 'take out the long runs' part. You can't take out the long runs because that shows speed. But I knew someone would point out the big run vs. WASH that Gore had so I nipped that one in the bud. Fact is Gore has a better YPC than the others.

 

[EBF]

Ah, got me.  I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats.  THanks for clearing that up.

That is why I brought up the 'take out the long runs' part. You can't take out the long runs because that shows speed. But I knew someone would point out the big run vs. WASH that Gore had so I nipped that one in the bud. Fact is Gore has a better YPC than the others.

Who cares? Tatum Bell has a higher YPC than Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and virtually every other RB in the league. Does that mean Bell is the best RB in the NFL and clearly superior to Alexander and Tomlinson? Nope. Gore has shown flashes of promise, but he's been working in spot duty and has yet to have a single 100 yard rushing game. Your argument holds no weight when you compare the numbers to Williams and Brown, who have each carried the load and produced multiple big games as starters.

Also, the primary knock on Gore was a lack of durability. He tore up both of his knees in college and has already suffered serious shoulder injuries in the NFL. It doesn't matter how good he is if he can't hold up the beating that a running back must endure.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Ah, got me.  I forgot that both NFL'ers and FF'ers discard long runs from stats.  THanks for clearing that up.

That is why I brought up the 'take out the long runs' part. You can't take out the long runs because that shows speed. But I knew someone would point out the big run vs. WASH that Gore had so I nipped that one in the bud. Fact is Gore has a better YPC than the others.

He also has considerably fewer touches than the people you're so eager to rank below him. It's a lot more pertinent IMO to compare Gore to someone like Ryan Moats than it is to compare him to WIlliams. Heck, even Marion Barber is a better comparison.

 

[P Boy]

Size in RBs is overrated, but it's a moot point in this discussion. Bush is plenty big and I won't be at all surprised if his NFL playing weight is greater than Williams'.

Williams is already performing at his current level at 220 lbs. So you are saying that you expect Bush to gain 25 lbs and not have an additional 13% in mass affect his game appreciably?That doesn't make any sense to me at all. Hey, maybe he'll be lucky like Tiki & be able to play light and still avoid injury. But like I said previously, the speed & agility difference bewteen he & D players is going to be much less in the pros than it will be at the college level - especially in a conference that is clearly emphasizing O while sacrificing overall quality on D.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I don't care how you slice it. A guy who got 30% of his season total numbers on 1 carry and run while amassing only 41 carries for the whole year raises concerns in the minds of anyone using rational thought.

I'm using plenty of rational thought.Hicks' run was 73 yards. So, let's compare.

Hicks had a long run of 73 yards in 41 carries.

Tatum Bell had a long run of 68 yards in 156 carries.

LT2 had a long run of 62 yards in 321 carries.

Tiki Barber had a long run of 59 yards in 329 carries.

Larry Johnson had a long run of 46 yards in 310 carries.

Yes, one run can show me something...especially since many of the biggest names didn't have that kind of carry.

To completely take it out of the equation is misleading.

 

[EBF]

Williams is already performing at nhis level at 220 lbs.  So you are saying that you expect Bush to gain 25 lbs and not have an additional 13% in mass affect his game appreciably?

I'm saying that his listed weight might not be particularly accurate. I saw Kevin Jones listed at 205 pounds going into the 2004 draft. I saw Cadillac Williams listed at 205 pounds going into the 2005 draft. Right now Bush is usually listed at 200. I suspect that he'll weigh in at about 210-215 at the combine and that his playing weight will be around 205-210 pounds.

That doesn't make any sense to me at all.  Hey, maybe he'll be lucky like Tiki & be able to play light and still avoid injury.  But like I said previously, the speed & agility difference bewteen he & D players is going to be much less in the pros than it will be at the college level - especially in a conference that is clearly emphasizing O while sacrificing overall quality on D.

You're right in noting that the pro defenders will be bigger, faster, and quicker. Nevertheless, I fail to see how this supports your argument. In fact, based on draft statistics and the number of players placed in the NFL each year, the jump up from the average Pac-10 defender and the average NFL player is smaller than that from the average C-USA defender and the average NFL player. What I'm saying is that Bush generally faces better athletes than Williams. The defensive statistics may show otherwise, but the proof is in the draft position. Even schools like Stanford and Washington State place a lot of guys in the NFL each year, whereas patsies like Rice, Southern Methodist, and Houston are lucky to get 1-2 new guys into a training camp each year.

Anyhow, your argument that Bush will have a tougher time in the NFL due to the increased quality of opposition also applies to Williams and every other draft prospect.

 

[jurb26]

Williams is already performing at nhis level at 220 lbs. So you are saying that you expect Bush to gain 25 lbs and not have an additional 13% in mass affect his game appreciably?

I'm saying that his listed weight might not be particularly accurate. I saw Kevin Jones listed at 205 pounds going into the 2004 draft. I saw Cadillac Williams listed at 205 pounds going into the 2005 draft. Right not Bush is usually listed at 200. I suspect that he'll weigh in at about 210-215 at the combine and that his playing weight will be around 205-210 pounds.

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. Hey, maybe he'll be lucky like Tiki & be able to play light and still avoid injury. But like I said previously, the speed & agility difference bewteen he & D players is going to be much less in the pros than it will be at the college level - especially in a conference that is clearly emphasizing O while sacrificing overall quality on D.

You're right in noting that the pro defenders will be bigger, faster, and quicker. Nevertheless, I fail to see how this supports your argument. In fact, based on draft statistics and the number of players placed in the NFL each year, the jump up from the average Pac-10 defender and the average NFL player is smaller than that from the average C-USA defender and the average NFL player. What I'm saying is that Bush generally faces better athletes than Williams. The defensive statistics may show otherwise, but the proof is in the draft position. Even schools like Stanford and Washington State place a lot of guys in the NFL each year, whereas patsies like Rice, Southern Methodist, and Houston are lucky to get 1-2 new guys into a training camp each year.

Anyhow, your argument that Bush will have a tougher time in the NFL due to the increased quality of opposition also applies to Williams and every other draft prospect.

Right on.

 

[lod2005]

Gore's #'s project to better than Cadillac or Brown over a full season as a #1 RB.Back to DeAngelo. He is better than any of the others, except possibly Bush. Bush has to go to the right team. Williams can go to any team. If he falls to a team like New England it is a case of the rich getting richer and the stupid being fired....eventually.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Gore's #'s project to better than Cadillac or Brown over a full season as a #1 RB.

Back to DeAngelo. He is better than any of the others, except possibly Bush. Bush has to go to the right team. Williams can go to any team. If he falls to a team like New England it is a case of the rich getting richer and the stupid being fired....eventually.

And two years ago, Barlow's number projected better than all of them...

Colin

 

[Chaos Commish]

Fwiw, I like both Bush and Williams to be excellent pros. I think they are clearly the class of this draft, and I agree Bush might be very special. Irt, size. The combine will measure them all soon enough, and we DON'T know correct measurements at this point. These teams DO exaggerate. I'm a UCLA alum and the Daily Bruin recently exposed this at UCLA. Drew Olson is listed as 6-3 and he is 6-1. Minnesota claimed Maroney was 215. They were wrong. He just weighed in at 205 (that weight appeared recently at several draftnik sites). USC says Bush is 6-0, 205. I'm almost positive the isn't 6-0. He is 5-11. From looking at pictures and watching them play, I would guess:Maroney, 5-11, 205Bush 5-11, 200Williams 5-9 210 (maybe)DeAngelo is short, and he isn't anywhere near 220. Thomas Jones is 5-10, 220, and he's a beast compared to DeAngelo.

 

[JohnnyU]

Williams 5-9 210 (maybe)

DeAngelo is short, and he isn't anywhere near 220. Thomas Jones is 5-10, 220, and he's a beast compared to DeAngelo.

DeAngelo Williams is 5-10 217.SI.com

 

[Chaos Commish]

Williams 5-9 210 (maybe)

DeAngelo is short, and he isn't anywhere near 220. Thomas Jones is 5-10, 220, and he's a beast compared to DeAngelo.

DeAngelo Williams is 5-10 217.SI.com

Yeah, I was quoting PBoy's 220. The 5-10 is very unlikely. He's shorter, or his lineman are all very very tall. As I explained, they fudge these numbers every year. 5-10 and 217 are the "roster #s" released by Memphis at the beginning of the year. They have nothing to do with SI, Yahoo, or ESPN, who all use what the school's provide. I gave a factual example with Drew Olson being "stretched" two inches by UCLA. It IS false. And this exaggerating is common. Williams will be measured at the combine. I am guessing 5-9 and 210 (max). is more accurate. You cannot tell me you think he sizes up equal to Thomas Jones. His is a legit 5-10 220 frame, and his upper body is huge. He makes DeAngelo look slender. Also, these guys headed to the combine put great effort into bulking up between now and then. They also hire sprint coaches to lower their 40s. Whatever DeAngelo and Reggie weigh in at then, you can subtract 5-10 now and be closer to reality.

Also also, I should have left this alone, because I agree with those that think size is not a very important issue.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yeah, I was quoting PBoy's 220.  The 5-10 is very unlikely.  He's shorter, or his lineman are all very very tall.  As I explained, they fudge these numbers every year. 5-10 and 217 are the "roster #s" released by Memphis at the beginning of the year. 

If DeAngelo Williams isn't 5-10 217, does that make Bush and Maroney about 5-10-190?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Yeah, I was quoting PBoy's 220. The 5-10 is very unlikely. He's shorter, or his lineman are all very very tall. As I explained, they fudge these numbers every year. 5-10 and 217 are the "roster #s" released by Memphis at the beginning of the year.

If DeAngelo Williams isn't 5-10 217, does that make Bush and Maroney about 5-10-190?

My estimates are listed above, but the answer is no. They all look similar give or take an inch or two and five to ten pounds. None of them are 190ish and none of them are 220ish. I know you used a "wink," but I did state that Maroney just weighed in at 205, and I believe that. I'll wait on Reggie and DeAngelo to actually weigh in. And I don't think any of this matters. Big backs, small backs, medium backs, tall backs, short backs, whatever. It's just about talent. Tomlinson was 5-11 205 at his combine. Shawn Bryson was 6-1, 237.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

After watching Williams - this guy is a stud and play at the NFL level.

Is Reggie Bush a fancy Dave Megget or Eric Metcalfe?  Time will tell - but I would not use the number one pick on Reggie Bush!

I wouldn't go that far....I think Reggie Bush is going to be a great NFL RB. However, with that being said, I think Deangelo Williams may be just as good, and definitely the much better value pick!

Think anyone in dynasty drafts who has the #1 overall pick will pull an "Edgerrin James over Ricky Williiams" type of pick, and take D Williams over Bush?

I think that depends on your team needs and if you need a immediate starter. If Williams gets a starting gig and Bush is in a RBBC, I could see Williams going first.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

Williams can lug the ball 25-30 times a game.  That's proven.  We don't know if Bush can.  That's something I'd be wary about if I had to choose.

Same argument could have been made to justify Benson over Brown/Caddy this year.

Caddy was off the board, but went with Benson over Brown because of this.

 

[Chaka]

LenDale White averages more yards per carry than DeAngelo Williams too, and he is more of your "every down" back. Plus Pac10 competition >>>>>>> C-USA competition.

Has anyone ever had a less publicized 1,400 yard 23 TD season for a major conference power than LenDale? This guy is a beast.

 

[Stinger Ray]

Good one. Now go look at Maurice Hicks stats. Then realize after you take out his 2 big runs he averages a pedestrian 3.5 ypc.

OMG! and if you remove all of his positive yardage runs he has a negative ypc!

 

[Stinger Ray]

Gore's #'s project to better than Cadillac or Brown over a full season as a #1 RB.

and ron dayne's project out to be better than all 3. 5.2 ypc!!! MVP sho fizzle!

 

[Otis]

What they should care about is whether he can carry 210 lbs in the middle of November & beyond while accumulating 15-20 cpg at the NFL level. I don't think he can do it in the day-in-day-out grind of a full NFL season - not without affecting his performance.

Based on?These kinds of statements absolutely kill me.

 

[lod2005]

Gore's #'s project to better than Cadillac or Brown over a full season as a #1 RB.

Back to DeAngelo. He is better than any of the others, except possibly Bush. Bush has to go to the right team. Williams can go to any team. If he falls to a team like New England it is a case of the rich getting richer and the stupid being fired....eventually.

And two years ago, Barlow's number projected better than all of them...

Colin

Barlow's a wimp. He is a zero.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Gore's #'s project to better than Cadillac or Brown over a full season as a #1 RB.

Back to DeAngelo. He is better than any of the others, except possibly Bush. Bush has to go to the right team. Williams can go to any team. If he falls to a team like New England it is a case of the rich getting richer and the stupid being fired....eventually.

And two years ago, Barlow's number projected better than all of them...

Colin

Barlow's a wimp. He is a zero.

For a guy interested in somehow projecting 100 carries in to a great career, you seem too willing to ignore the fact that Barlow was every bit as good as GOre in his own limited duty role.