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Why LT2 over Shaun A at 1.01? (1 Viewer)

Harald

Footballguy
LT2 schedule:2005 Schedule Date Opponent Time/Result Sep 11 Dallas 4:15pm Sep 18 @Denver 4:15pm Sep 25 N.Y. Giants 8:30pm Oct 2 @New England 1:00pm Oct 10 Pittsburgh 9:00pm Oct 16 @Oakland 4:15pm Oct 23 @Philadelphia 1:00pm Oct 30 Kansas City 4:05pm Nov 6 @N.Y. Jets 1:00pm Week 10 BYE Nov 20 Buffalo 4:15pm Nov 27 @Washington 1:00pm Dec 4 Oakland 8:30pm Dec 11 Miami 4:15pm Dec 18 @Indianapolis 1:00pm Dec 24 @Kansas City 1:00pm Dec 31 Denver 4:30pm Shaun A schedule:2005 Schedule Date Opponent Time/Result Sep 11 @Jacksonville 1:00pm Sep 18 Atlanta 4:05pm Sep 25 Arizona 4:05pm Oct 2 @Washington 1:00pm Oct 9 @St. Louis 1:00pm Oct 16 Houston 8:30pm Oct 23 Dallas 4:05pm Week 8 BYE Nov 6 @Arizona 4:05pm Nov 13 St. Louis 4:15pm Nov 20 @San Francisco 4:05pm Nov 27 N.Y. Giants 4:15pm Dec 5 @Philadelphia 9:00pm Dec 11 San Francisco 4:05pm Dec 18 @Tennessee 1:00pm Dec 24 Indianapolis 4:15pm Jan 1 @Green Bay 4:15pm Shaun A is in a contract year. LT2's OL has gone to Miami.LT2 had a <4.0 ypc.Shaun A has never had below 4.0Shaun A's schedule is ridiculously easy even come playoff time except perhaps vs the Colts in the championship.Perhaps in leagues that award points for receptions LT2 is the #1, but I have troubles not seeing Shaun A as the #1 RB this season (except perhaps Priest Holmes)Please convince me otherwise...

 

gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
They're both studs, and I think either could be drafted #1. With all the good points made above, LT is just a more talented runningback, and can do more with less. He's also a better recieving threat than Alexander. They're very close, but I'll take LT.

 

Muahahaha

Footballguy
Because many people refuse to believe that SOS should ever be looked at. They go on the premise that SOS is random and shouldn't be factored in to their analysis.FWIW, I'm with you.

 

Harald

Footballguy
Moreover, Darren Sproles is rumored to get some 3rd down time due to his hands which should dimnish LT2s value a lil' more even. Though my own opinion about Sproles is return man only and the other being just training camp bs.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.Colin

 

Ozymandias

Footballguy
Remember that LT played injured for half the season last year.His average was 4.5 and 5.3 the previous two years.

 

CGRdrJoe

Footballguy
Also remember that LT is a big player in SD's passing game. Alexander is not much of a hands back.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
Damn you, HERD. I was all set to follow Yudkin's logic and draft Holmes at 1.02 ( I assume LT2 to be taken first) and now you're going to force me to rethink everything.
 

jurb26

Footballguy
Was wondering when someone would pose this question.

Seems to me the original poster raises some good points.
It's been brought up before, just not after his signing of the one year deal. I would have taken SA then and will most certainly take him over LT now as well.
 

jurb26

Footballguy
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
Look forward to seeing this. I am so tired of the LT walks on water perception around here and in FF in general. He is not of the caliber of Faulk or Holmes and SA is getting very little respect because of bad PR last year IMO.
 

CGRdrJoe

Footballguy
SA Not much of a reciever??? Last season was the 1st since his rookie year that he did not have 40+ catches
Let's compareLT2

01 59

02 79

03 100

04 53

Alexander

00 5

01 44

02 59

03 42

04 23

LT2 is by far a bigger weapon as a receiver.

 

facook

Footballguy
I ALMOST had myself convinced this weekend that SA's the man rather than LT2, for most of the reasons posed in the original post.Then I remembered LT2 running over, around, and through everybody inn 2002 and 2003 with absolute crap at OL and a VERY shaky Brees at QB to take the pressure off of him. Both those situations have vastly improved.LT2 is still my man.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Ooooh! Ooooh! Oooooh! I know! I know! Pick me!

Um, er, errrr... Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win? What did I win?

 

jurb26

Footballguy
Ooooh! Ooooh! Oooooh! I know! I know! Pick me!

Um, er, errrr... Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win? What did I win?
Being better does not mean you will score more fantasy points.
 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
It's funny.Last year I was picking 4th, and liked Alexander over McAllister despite the fact that most people on this board were telling me to take McAllister. I was begging people to talk me into Alexander, just to assure myself I wasn't nuts. I labored over it up until the zero hour and decided to go Alexander. In fact, I tried to pull a last minute draft pick swap that would have netted me picks 6 and 19 for my 4 and 21, with the intention of going Alexander and Manning with those picks. The guy turned the deal down, I took Alexander at #4 anyway - he took McAllister 6th (Ahman went #5 as I knew he would) and picked Manning with the 19th pick. Ignoring the fact that I would have won my league easily had he made this deal, I still made the right call.Now, here we are a year later and I am looking for people to convince me to take Alexander over Holmes because I'd prefer not to waste a 6th rounder on Larry Johnson. Will I make the right call again? :shrug:

 
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Colin Dowling

Footballguy
It's funny.

Last year I was picking 4th, and liked Alexander over McAllister despite the fact that most people on this board were telling me to take McAllister. I was begging people to talk me into Alexander, just to assure myself I wasn't nuts. I labored over it up until the zero hour and decided to go Alexander. In fact, I tried to pull a last minute draft pick swap that would have netted me picks 6 and 19 for my 4 and 21, with the intention of going Alexander and Manning with those picks. The guy turned the deal down, I took Alexander at #4 anyway - he took McAllister 6th (Ahman went #5 as I knew he would) and picked Manning with the 19th pick. Ignoring the fact that I would have won my league easily had he made this deal, I still made the right call.

Now, here we are a year later and I am looking for people to convince me to take Alexander over Holmes because I'd prefer not to waste a 6th rounder on Larry Johnson. Will I make the right call again? :shrug:
There is no excuse for Preist Holmes to not be the #1 pick in the draft if you are willing to draft Larry Johnson as well. If you aren't in to that strategy, then I believe Alexander is the ideal 1.01 selection in non-PPR leagues.Colin

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
It's funny.

Last year I was picking 4th, and liked Alexander over McAllister despite the fact that most people on this board were telling me to take McAllister.  I was begging people to talk me into Alexander, just to assure myself I wasn't nuts.  I labored over it up until the zero hour and decided to go Alexander.  In fact, I tried to pull a last minute draft pick swap that would have netted me picks 6 and 19 for my 4 and 21, with the intention of going Alexander and Manning with those picks.  The guy turned the deal down, I took Alexander at #4 anyway - he took McAllister 6th (Ahman went #5 as I knew he would) and picked Manning with the 19th pick.  Ignoring the fact that I would have won my league easily had he made this deal, I still made the right call.

Now, here we are a year later and I am looking for people to convince me to take Alexander over Holmes because I'd prefer not to waste a 6th rounder on Larry Johnson.  Will I make the right call again?  :shrug:
There is no excuse for Preist Holmes to not be the #1 pick in the draft if you are willing to draft Larry Johnson as well. If you aren't in to that strategy, then I believe Alexander is the ideal 1.01 selection in non-PPR leagues.Colin
I wonder if I should start a poll asking how early of a pick they would be willing to spend on an LJ handcuff in order to make drafting Holmes #1 or 2 worthwhile. How many derogatory "Another LJ/Priest thread!" comments do you think I'll get? :D
 
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P Boy

Footballguy
Ooooh!  Ooooh!  Oooooh!  I know!  I know!  Pick me!

Um, er, errrr...  Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win?  What did I win?
Being better does not mean you will score more fantasy points.
Tomlinson put up 1776 yds & 18 TDs last season.Alexander put up 1866 yds & 20 TDs last season.

So Alexander was 90 yds & 2 TDs better. And that's with the low ypc, which was well below the previous 2 years' ypc.

And wait! Tomlinson played 15 games while Alexander played 16 games.

That makes Tomlinson's production 118.4 ypg & 1.2 TDs/gm. Alexander scored 116.6 ypg & 1.25 TDs/gm.

That's 19.04 FF ppg for Tomlinson and 19.16 FF ppg for Alexander. But, Tomlinson, as I previously stated, put up a 3 year low in ypc. So this would seem to be a reasonable low point for Tomlinson, whereas that's a number that Alexander probably can't better, since that was a career high for him.

Expecting both players to regress towards their means, Tomlinson is clearly a better pick.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Ooooh!  Ooooh!  Oooooh!  I know!  I know!   Pick me!

Um, er, errrr...  Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win?  What did I win?
Being better does not mean you will score more fantasy points.
Tomlinson put up 1776 yds & 18 TDs last season.Alexander put up 1866 yds & 20 TDs last season.

So Alexander was 90 yds & 2 TDs better. And that's with the low ypc, which was well below the previous 2 years' ypc.

And wait! Tomlinson played 15 games while Alexander played 16 games.

That makes Tomlinson's production 118.4 ypg & 1.2 TDs/gm. Alexander scored 116.6 ypg & 1.25 TDs/gm.

That's 19.04 FF ppg for Tomlinson and 19.16 FF ppg for Alexander. But, Tomlinson, as I previously stated, put up a 3 year low in ypc. So this would seem to be a reasonable low point for Tomlinson, whereas that's a number that Alexander probably can't better, since that was a career high for him.

Expecting both players to regress towards their means, Tomlinson is clearly a better pick.
Why are we so sure that either (or both) of them will regress?Colin

 

jurb26

Footballguy
Ooooh! Ooooh! Oooooh! I know! I know! Pick me!

Um, er, errrr... Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win? What did I win?
Being better does not mean you will score more fantasy points.
Tomlinson put up 1776 yds & 18 TDs last season.Alexander put up 1866 yds & 20 TDs last season.

So Alexander was 90 yds & 2 TDs better. And that's with the low ypc, which was well below the previous 2 years' ypc.

And wait! Tomlinson played 15 games while Alexander played 16 games.

That makes Tomlinson's production 118.4 ypg & 1.2 TDs/gm. Alexander scored 116.6 ypg & 1.25 TDs/gm.

That's 19.04 FF ppg for Tomlinson and 19.16 FF ppg for Alexander. But, Tomlinson, as I previously stated, put up a 3 year low in ypc. So this would seem to be a reasonable low point for Tomlinson, whereas that's a number that Alexander probably can't better, since that was a career high for him.

Expecting both players to regress towards their means, Tomlinson is clearly a better pick.
And why do we just totaly disregard the low YPA in LT's rookie year every time this discussion is brought up? Everyone only looks at LT with rose colored glasses IMO. In the same 4 year span, LT has had a YPA under 4.0 2 times now, thats half the time. SA, never. LT will be loosing his Oline coach and Gates now posses a serious vulture in his stats. The only reason LT was able to maintian his high level of fantasy success is because SD, the TEAM, managed to put him in the readzone at a rediculously higher rate than years before. Are you really expecting this team, which by common opinion played wel above their heads, to do that well agian and give LT the same amount of chances to score? LT had 85 carries in the readzone last year while only getting 55 and 51 the years before.Why is it that nobody ever wants to talk about he 4 year low LT had in Rec last year... think the emergance of Gates may have had a little to do with that maybe? I sure do!

SA is in a much more stable offence with a better Oline. Sea had a top 3 Oline last year and actually upgraded it for this season. SA is as consistent at scoring as anyone and with him signed I think he chould be at least on par with that of LT, higher IMO though.

 
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Bloom

Moderator
if anything, LTs stats from last year are an argument FOR him as a #1 overall... if you bring up last year's stats and don't mention that LT was nursing a strained groin for the better part of the year, you're being disingenuous - that LT put up elite numbers despite A) getting pulled early for chatman and B) not being 100% for a lot of the season points to only GREAT things for this year.

 
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M

mojorizin

Guest
They could and should both put up equal numbers. The difference for me is the real possibility that LT with any help could post a 2,000 yd rushing season. I think the perception is that SAlex is as dependable as they come but for some reason never wows anybody with amazing runs - he just gets it done and is likely to have reached his potential. I think we see a guy that for 3 seasons has the tab of "great fantasy back, serviceable NFL back" (despite his numbers) and he just isn't a glamour pick.Even with all that, I could see LT crashing before Alexander.

 

Gold Plated Nails

Footballguy
LT O Line COACH went to Miami. Last time I checked Fonoti, Goff and the rest were still in SD.Marty likes to run, Brees likes to dump it off, LT put up huge numbers despite being hurt. He is healthy now and in the best shape of his career. He is at his prime right now, 2000 yrds dont look back.PS: I am a biased Charger season ticket holder. SA or LT, both would be good selections, its win win really. I like beer, you may like wine.

 

dirtnap101

Footballguy
SA was the #1 FF RB last year in my league (and I assume most scoring rules), and although I love him and owned him last year, I can't imagine him doing it again. He's really never been injured, and I'm a glass half empty type of guy when it comes to that. LT2 is safer, and if I'm stuck with the #1 pick I'm looking for safety (unless I want to take Priest and overspend for Larry Johnson, as pointed out above).

 

4 - Digit Shark

Footballguy
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it. If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander. If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm. That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever. Say his line sucks. Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17. SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game. Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways. Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside. If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander. Although I don't think LT is a risk at all. And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs. This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank. And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.

 

fflnut

Footballguy
Just out of curiousity, does anyone disagree that the KC RB tandem will combine for more pts than SA and his backup or LT and his backup? Ah, love the acronyms...I've got the 2nd pick myself and know SA and Priest are going to be there. Having trouble deciding which one to grab. I fully realize that I'll have to burn a higher draft spot on LJ (more acronyms), but I'm curious if everyone agrees hands down that the KC RBs will outproduce the backs in SD and SEA.

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it. If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander. If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm. That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever. Say his line sucks. Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17. SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game. Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways. Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside. If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander. Although I don't think LT is a risk at all. And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs. This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank. And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
:goodposting:
 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it. If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander. If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm. That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever. Say his line sucks. Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17. SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game. Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways. Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside. If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander. Although I don't think LT is a risk at all. And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs. This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank. And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
 

gump

Footballguy
Just out of curiousity, does anyone disagree that the KC RB tandem will combine for more pts than SA and his backup or LT and his backup?
I think they will. My problem with Priest and LJ (and I have the #1) is I'm afraid that they will split points in a lot of games.
 

dirtnap101

Footballguy
Just out of curiousity, does anyone disagree that the KC RB tandem will combine for more pts than SA and his backup or LT and his backup? Ah, love the acronyms...

I've got the 2nd pick myself and know SA and Priest are going to be there. Having trouble deciding which one to grab. I fully realize that I'll have to burn a higher draft spot on LJ (more acronyms), but I'm curious if everyone agrees hands down that the KC RBs will outproduce the backs in SD and SEA.
To me it's not so much a question of will Priest/LJ outproduce a healthy SA for 16 games (although I could say if the KC D improves AND Priest stays healthy, they may pull him at the end of games where they are ahead and throw in LJ, which clouds the mix even more). It's a question of how badly does it harm your overall draft strategy and depth at another position when having to burn a fairly high pick on a guy (LJ) who you hope will never get any serious playing time? Can their production overcome that and SA? I'm a wuss, so I'd go SA.

 

fflnut

Footballguy
Just out of curiousity, does anyone disagree that the KC RB tandem will combine for more pts than SA and his backup or LT and his backup? 
I think they will. My problem with Priest and LJ (and I have the #1) is I'm afraid that they will split points in a lot of games.
Not trying to derail the thread, but that's a good point. Although, I thought someone posted a quote from Vermeil saying that Priest will be the #1 no questions asked. That'd obviously change if he got hurt. Hmm...maybe the question is will these guys, as individuals, average more pts per game than LT or SA. Probably a different topic of discussion since this is about LT and SA, so I'll drop it.
 

fflnut

Footballguy
Just out of curiousity, does anyone disagree that the KC RB tandem will combine for more pts than SA and his backup or LT and his backup?  Ah, love the acronyms...

I've got the 2nd pick myself and know SA and Priest are going to be there.  Having trouble deciding which one to grab.  I fully realize that I'll have to burn a higher draft spot on LJ (more acronyms), but I'm curious if everyone agrees hands down that the KC RBs will outproduce the backs in SD and SEA.
To me it's not so much a question of will Priest/LJ outproduce a healthy SA for 16 games (although I could say if the KC D improves AND Priest stays healthy, they may pull him at the end of games where they are ahead and throw in LJ, which clouds the mix even more). It's a question of how badly does it harm your overall draft strategy and depth at another position when having to burn a fairly high pick on a guy (LJ) who you hope will never get any serious playing time? Can their production overcome that and SA? I'm a wuss, so I'd go SA.
Agreed. Last year the 1st backup in our league went in round #7. I've got a low 6th round high 7th round pick and am hoping to grab LJ then. If I have to go higher, then I'm definitely at risk as you mention. But, if I can grab LJ late 6th, I think I'll be in great shape.
 

dirtnap101

Footballguy
My problem is, after I pick Priest in the first I'd start to wonder "Is some fool going to jump on LJ before I want to take him". I think I'd be distracted by it, worrying about it. Taking Priest is to big a commitment to me, even if I end up snagging LJ where I want him. LJ is the only clear-cut backup in the league who, if given the starting job, would be a lock for the top 10 RB, maybe top 5. Call me nuts, but I actually have Priest ranked as RB5 because of this situation.

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
It's funny.

Last year I was picking 4th, and liked Alexander over McAllister despite the fact that most people on this board were telling me to take McAllister.  I was begging people to talk me into Alexander, just to assure myself I wasn't nuts.  I labored over it up until the zero hour and decided to go Alexander.  In fact, I tried to pull a last minute draft pick swap that would have netted me picks 6 and 19 for my 4 and 21, with the intention of going Alexander and Manning with those picks.  The guy turned the deal down, I took Alexander at #4 anyway - he took McAllister 6th (Ahman went #5 as I knew he would) and picked Manning with the 19th pick.  Ignoring the fact that I would have won my league easily had he made this deal, I still made the right call.

Now, here we are a year later and I am looking for people to convince me to take Alexander over Holmes because I'd prefer not to waste a 6th rounder on Larry Johnson.  Will I make the right call again?  :shrug:
There is no excuse for Preist Holmes to not be the #1 pick in the draft if you are willing to draft Larry Johnson as well. If you aren't in to that strategy, then I believe Alexander is the ideal 1.01 selection in non-PPR leagues.Colin
Heres a reason for you: Holmes has gotten hurt or had a nagging injury in every year and the Chiefs are more concerned with winning than FF points. Now that they know they have a good #2 RB, I could easily see them reducing Holmes carries to keep him healthy. I see this as a semi-RBBC. Despite all of this, Colin, please know that I still consider you to be one of the rare people here who can make bread look like a sammich more easily than you can bake.
 

4 - Digit Shark

Footballguy
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it.  If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander.  If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm.  That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever.  Say his line sucks.  Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17.  SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game.  Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways.  Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside.  If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander.  Although I don't think LT is a risk at all.  And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs.  This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank.  And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
Do you realize that last year a gimpy LT, who was pulled often because of the injury, matched Alexander (who had his best year ever) in pts/gm?I don't care if he finishes 1st or 101st, all I'm saying is he will finish higher then Alexander. Like I said, even with the injury, LT hung with Alexander last year. In 2003 (339 to 269) and (307.2 to 273.5) it was not even close, LT blew him away. Alexander handed it to LT, in LT's rookie year (262.1 to 220.3). I'm sorry for rather having a guy who has more of an upside. Take Alexander's career high of 306.6, and run with it. I'll take my shot with LT.

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
Ooooh!  Ooooh!  Oooooh!  I know!  I know!  Pick me!

Um, er, errrr...  Because Tomlinson is better?

What did I win?  What did I win?
Being better does not mean you will score more fantasy points.
Tomlinson put up 1776 yds & 18 TDs last season.Alexander put up 1866 yds & 20 TDs last season.

So Alexander was 90 yds & 2 TDs better. And that's with the low ypc, which was well below the previous 2 years' ypc.

And wait! Tomlinson played 15 games while Alexander played 16 games.

That makes Tomlinson's production 118.4 ypg & 1.2 TDs/gm. Alexander scored 116.6 ypg & 1.25 TDs/gm.

That's 19.04 FF ppg for Tomlinson and 19.16 FF ppg for Alexander. But, Tomlinson, as I previously stated, put up a 3 year low in ypc. So this would seem to be a reasonable low point for Tomlinson, whereas that's a number that Alexander probably can't better, since that was a career high for him.

Expecting both players to regress towards their means, Tomlinson is clearly a better pick.
And why do we just totaly disregard the low YPA in LT's rookie year every time this discussion is brought up? Everyone only looks at LT with rose colored glasses IMO. In the same 4 year span, LT has had a YPA under 4.0 2 times now, thats half the time. SA, never. LT will be loosing his Oline coach and Gates now posses a serious vulture in his stats. The only reason LT was able to maintian his high level of fantasy success is because SD, the TEAM, managed to put him in the readzone at a rediculously higher rate than years before. Are you really expecting this team, which by common opinion played wel above their heads, to do that well agian and give LT the same amount of chances to score? LT had 85 carries in the readzone last year while only getting 55 and 51 the years before.Why is it that nobody ever wants to talk about he 4 year low LT had in Rec last year... think the emergance of Gates may have had a little to do with that maybe? I sure do!

SA is in a much more stable offence with a better Oline. Sea had a top 3 Oline last year and actually upgraded it for this season. SA is as consistent at scoring as anyone and with him signed I think he chould be at least on par with that of LT, higher IMO though.
very :goodposting: here.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it.  If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander.  If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm.  That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever.  Say his line sucks.  Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17.  SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game.  Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways.  Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside.  If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander.  Although I don't think LT is a risk at all.  And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs.  This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank.  And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
Do you realize that last year a gimpy LT, who was pulled often because of the injury, matched Alexander (who had his best year ever) in pts/gm?I don't care if he finishes 1st or 101st, all I'm saying is he will finish higher then Alexander. Like I said, even with the injury, LT hung with Alexander last year. In 2003 (339 to 269) and (307.2 to 273.5) it was not even close, LT blew him away. Alexander handed it to LT, in LT's rookie year (262.1 to 220.3). I'm sorry for rather having a guy who has more of an upside. Take Alexander's career high of 306.6, and run with it. I'll take my shot with LT.
So what you're saying is that out of 4 years, SA outproduced LT in 2 of them and LT outproduced SA in 2 of them....whats that supposed to tell us?
 

4 - Digit Shark

Footballguy
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it.  If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander.  If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm.  That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever.  Say his line sucks.  Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17.  SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game.  Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways.  Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside.  If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander.  Although I don't think LT is a risk at all.  And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs.  This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank.  And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
Do you realize that last year a gimpy LT, who was pulled often because of the injury, matched Alexander (who had his best year ever) in pts/gm?I don't care if he finishes 1st or 101st, all I'm saying is he will finish higher then Alexander. Like I said, even with the injury, LT hung with Alexander last year. In 2003 (339 to 269) and (307.2 to 273.5) it was not even close, LT blew him away. Alexander handed it to LT, in LT's rookie year (262.1 to 220.3). I'm sorry for rather having a guy who has more of an upside. Take Alexander's career high of 306.6, and run with it. I'll take my shot with LT.
So what you're saying is that out of 4 years, SA outproduced LT in 2 of them and LT outproduced SA in 2 of them....whats that supposed to tell us?
If your looking at end of year total points, and that is the only thing you base your opinion on, then yes, that is what the stats say. But if you factor in that in 2001 LT was a rookie, and in 2004 he fought through a groin injury, was pulled a lot because of it and sat out the last game to rest, then I'd say it may sway your opinion. LT easily out scored SA in 2002 & 2003. SA only outscored LT last year by 0.12pts/gm, in SA's best season ever. The only year he really distanced himself from LT was in LT's rookie season. How did SA do in his rookie year??? Maybe we should include those stats. Even with LT's rookie year, he still out performs SA over the last 4 years on a pts/gm basis.2004 - LT = 19.04/gm & SA = 19.16/gm (+0.12pt/gm for SA)

2003 - LT = 21.19/gm & SA = 16.81/gm (+4.38pt/gm for LT)

2002 - LT = 19.20/gm & SA = 17.09/gm (+2.11pt/gm for LT)

2001 - LT = 13.77/gm & SA = 16.38/gm (+2.61pt/gm for SA)

--------------------------------------------------

AVG - LT = 18.30/gm & SA = 17.36/gm

These averages are even a bit whacky. Looking at the last 3 years, it is clear who is the better choice ( LT = 19.81 to SA 17.69). LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, are still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). That's what I get from the stats, not 2 to 2.

Looking at past performance, ability of each RB and how I believe they will continue to play, I really don't think there is any arguement that could be made, that would make be believe that SA is a better pick then LT this year. I just don't see it in a "Non" PPR league, and it isn't an argument in a PPR league.

Please answer these ?'s

Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons? What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?

Being that an average year for LT outscores a career year by SA, I'll still take LT.

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
If I had the top pick, I'd be deciding between LT and Priest, not LT and Alexander.Alexander is a very good back, but he doesn't have LT's upside.Tomlinson wasn't himself last season. Look at all the long runs Chatman busted in the fourth quarter of games last year when Tomlinson was out because of his groin: 21-yd TD vs TEN, 41-yd TD vs JAX, 52-yd run vs CAR, etc. A healthy Tomlinson would have gotten those runs, and he probably would have been 0.5 YPC or so better on the rest of his runs as well.I watched a tape a few days ago of the Chargers-Broncos game from week 13 of the 2002 season. Tomlinson and Portis were both unbelievable. Alexander simply doesn't have the explosiveness or moves of either of those guys. After watching them last season in a down year, it's easy to forget how really good both Tomlinson and Portis can be when they are at their best. They can be awesome.While both talent and team situation are important, I'm a big believer in giving more weight to talent. I've watched every down LT has played as a pro, and I think he's the best RB in the league. His upside potential has yet to be fully tapped.

 
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NYSackExchange

Footballguy
I think every year, the consensus #1 gets floated to the top. There are clearly several top tier RB's and then those who are not even discussed [Tiki, CuMar] with potential to be the top RB.It has a kind of snowball momentum that builds itself as the offseason and preseason wear on. Usually you put them up there and then figure out why to knock each one down a peg.Priest - injury, age, LJTiki - age, coming off career yearCuMar - age, what other reason?Edge - knee? [healthy now], trade to Dolphins?, holdout?SA - holdout. [which is now over with]LT - OL coach [seriously?]So, all are capable of leading league, one will. LT has least plausible reason to knock him down, so he has floated to the top.I am still seeing Tiki and CuMar get drafted in 2nd round, even late 2nd or 3rd - why?Who knows - Duece McAlister could end up leading the league if he can finish every game.

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
If I had the top pick, I'd be deciding between LT and Priest, not LT and Alexander.

Alexander is a very good back, but he doesn't have LT's upside.

Tomlinson wasn't himself last season. Look at all the long runs Chatman busted in the fourth quarter of games last year when Tomlinson was out because of his groin: 21-yd TD vs TEN, 41-yd TD vs JAX, 52-yd run vs CAR, etc. A healthy Tomlinson would have gotten those runs, and he probably would have been 0.5 YPC or so better on the rest of his runs as well.

I watched a tape a few days ago of the Chargers-Broncos game from week 13 of the 2002 season. Tomlinson and Portis were both unbelievable. Alexander simply doesn't have the explosiveness or moves of either of those guys. After watching them last season in a down year, it's easy to forget how really good both Tomlinson and Portis can be when they are at their best. They can be awesome.

While both talent and team situation are important, I'm a big believer in giving more weight to talent. I've watched every down LT has played as a pro, and I think he's the best RB in the league. His upside potential has yet to be fully tapped.
Wasn't this "upside" myth disproven last year with Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber?For some reason certain guys get this label as having no upside, while others get labeled as having great upside. I heard another poster say it well once: Basically, if a RB has never accomplished it, we like to label him as having great upside, but if a RB has just been consistently good, then we like to say that he has no upside....and its a ridiculous notion, as was proven last year with guys like Martin and Barber being top 5 RBs while upside guys like Barlow falling on their faces.

And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
Wasn't this "upside" myth disproven last year with Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber?
Martin and Barber are great examples of guys who had more upside than a lot of people thought they did.Maybe Alexander has it in him to rush for 2000 yards.But if I had to make a line regarding who is more likely to rush for 2000 yards next year, LT or Alexander (if neither or both do, the bet is off), I'd make Tomlinson the favorite for sure.
 

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