My first point was that you say he had less then 40 rec for the first time, but fail to mention he had his highest ever yardage total. Do you realize he had the most touches 376, of his career last year? ('03 = 368, '02 = 354, '01 = 353) My point is, and I will touch on this later, it doesn't matter how a RB gets his touches/yardage (in non PPR leagues). All that matters is his final yardage and TD's. Are you saying SA will have more then 376 touches this year, resulting in more yardage? If so, that would be his second career year in a row.
I think SA's touches will remain about the same. The only reason I brought this up in the 1st place is because you and other tried to use the lack of rec as a negitive against SA. You have just proved for me how that was false though. Thank you.
The fact that you keep refering to where each has finished at the end of each year, "Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years", is a total joke. Dude, what matters is their POINTS SCORED, not where they finish. A 4th place finish in 2004, will not always equal the same point total as a 4th place finish in another year. Does your league give fantasy points based on what place a player finishes in? Did you read my post on the average number of points each has scored over the last 4 years? I guess not, because you failed to reference that in your response.
LOL, you brought it up, not me. I don't know what kind of leagues you play in, but where the player finishes vs his peers IS WHAT MATTERS! What do I care if LT or SA scored 1000 points if there were 4 other RBs that scored 1200? Simply scoring a lot of points means nothing if others are still scoring more. I love how we continually hear that LT has more upside than SA. Well, I guess thats right in some strange way. I mean how much more up can you get than being the 1RB in fantasy football, a feet LT has yet to accomplish. As for your points comparison, yes it is slightly in favor of LT. Umm, OK, what difference does that make if you see changes that can prevent LT from hitting them again (as I happen to) and you don't see those same changes for SA?
This one is good. I know LT has out produced SA because of total yardage (rushing & rec), not just rushing. But all the points count right? That's why he is better. Gates my hurt LT in receiving, but don't you think that also opens things up in the rushing department? More weapons = less focus on LT. Once again, do you think that the injury had anything to do with the 4 year low in receptions? Receiving yardage is the same as rushing yardage right?
No, I don't think the injury had much to do with it. I think that Gates was the major factor and he is not going away. Do you not find it odd that LT caught less passes yet his YPR went up? It's rather clear the injury was not keeping him form being effective in the passing game, but there were now 2 options to split those passes between. The bottom line is that this team now has 2 go to players and not just LT. It just so happens that the other threat stands to dip into the very numbers that pushed LT over the top, his rec numbers. Does this concern me, YES. I understand that LT was hurt last year, but you act as though we are to assume that had he not been hurt he would have seen his career high YPA. Here are LT's YPA over the years, you tell me which stands out the most: 3.6, 4.5, 5.3, 3.9. Sorry if I don't jump all over that 5+ and assume it is the norm. Do I thik LT could have been more effective fully healhty, yes of course but his 4 years have left us with less than conclusive results and have actually jumped all over the board.
Yes, I know LT had 100/725/4 in 2003, and no I don't think he will repeat those numbers. Like above you fail at all to recognize that LT played through injury last year, and that may have contributed to his decline in numbers all around. He could easily post 65/450/2 this year. Like above a better overall team, compared to the one in 2003, means less focusing on LT. That only helps him.
No, it will mean less touches for LT IMO. That is why I showed the numbers for effectivness per touch in regards to scoring. SA looks to remain stable in that department to me, LT looks to decrease. If you balance out the touches, SA excells more.
SEA says they will run more, I haven't heard that before. Plus SEA has had one of the best O-Lines in the league for a few years now. How much better will they get? Do you know how many touches SA will get this year? No one can predict that, for any player. The facts are the facts, LT has out scored SA over the last 4 years. The only result of LT getting fewer touches this year, is his TD/touch ratio will go up. That sould make him move up your draft board, right? You didn't say how you liked Bettis with his ratio.
Yeah, you have heard Sea say that they would run more... last year. Guess what they DID and so DID SA as you helped me to show earlier in your own post! On top of that, the more SA runs, the more effective he seems to get: 295 carries->4.0, 309 carries->4.3, 326 carries->4.4, 353->4.8. The facts are that over the last 4 years, SA has outscored LT 2 times and LT outscored SA 2 times. So SA was more valuable than LT in half those years and LT more vauable than SA in half those years. How do you know that LT getting less touches will net him more effectivness? I have already shown you how abnormal the number of touches LT received in the redzone was. What leads you to believe that SD will put him that such a pleasent position again? How do you now that it is the norm for LT run at 5+ yds a pop when he has only done it 1 of 4 years? I'm not even going to entertain the thought of comparing Bettis to either of these backs, sorry.
Alright, SD was a better team last year, but SEA will be better this year??? With the way the NFL is these days, I'm glad you have a clear vision on how teams will perform in the upcoming season. Break down redzone touches all you want, you can't get away from how each player has performed over the last 4 years. I don't care how they get their points, that fact of the matter is, LT gets more on average over the last 4 years. LT was good when SD was bad, and he was good when they were good. It doesn't matter for him because he will be involved if they are running out a lead, or trying to play catch-up.
Of course I have feelings on the teams, I'm sure you do too. If you don't agree with my feeling on SD, so be it. I see this as team in transistion still and a few years away. I think they played great and inspired football last year but over their heads. Could I be wrong, yes, but it still effects how I see them and the ops I seem them being able to provide LT in contrast to SA (2 RBs that are well ahead of their peers IMO). The fact is, things are CHANGING in SD while they are still very much the same in Sea. More weapons led to less involvment for LT last year based on his touches. SA still has that stud Oline, with added depth and has PROVEN he can be a top RB with other options in the same O as him. LT has not, he has always been the one and only option.All you do is try to come up with reasons why LT will not produce as he has in the past. Less involvement in the passing game, less redzone touches, yada, yada, yada... The way you talk the guy is 2nd rounder.
And for the last time:
LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). Do you see that? Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter. 19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters. LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters. Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.
If this is really what you think then you should be argueing for Holmes/LJ, NOT LT.
Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?
This is adressed in the above info.
What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
As I have said thoughout the post, I see that "average" coming down for LT.This is fun.
I'm going to make a few last points, and probably be done with this, because to be honest, it is going nowwhere.I don't care how many catches and rushes SA has had in any year, the fact of the matter is he has never had more then 1866 total yards, in a given year. Catch it, run it or what ever. The lack of rec, if it continues is a negative, because even if he rushes for more yards, he will lose it in rec yards.
I brought up where each player ranked in a given year??? If I did I apoligize, and please show me this, it was a mistake. I never use this type of scoring system, ever, so I would not know the ranking of any player, any year, using it. Yes it matters how a player finishes in a given year, but to not also reference how many points they, and the players around them scored is a joke. SA out scored LT in LT's rookie year, and by 0.12pt/gm last year, when LT played through an injury, and was pulled a lot because of it. You fail to address this. You are just stuck on saying, Hey, it's 2 to 2, it's 2 to 2. Really, last year was a tie, unless LT cost you a game by .12pts, and in 2001 he was a rookie. Show me SA's rookie stats, and who out scored who then. LT crushed SA in 2002 & 2003, doesn't that hold any weight for you? Being the #1 back in a year where LT played through any injury and Holmes played in 8 games, is no big deal. Especially when that point total would of only been LT's 3rd best season. IF LT was healthy, he would have out scored SA on a per game basis. To not see that is really a joke. LT maybe has not finished #1, but HE SCORES MORE POINTS. Yes, LT has more upside, look at the numbers. He has produced 2370/17 = 339pts, to SA's best of 1866/20 = 306.6.
OK, the injury did NOT have much to do with LT's production last year. Oh my god, you have to be the only one in the world who would say that. He was sub'd for by Chatman, far more then he would have been if healthy. You tell me that a healthy groin, and more carries/rec would not have allowed LT to make up 0.12pts/gm on SA. The fact that you said it does not have much affect, pretty much makes everything else you say meaningless. It is clear, you only factor in what you want to, and discount very important things that really do matter. Facts are more important then your opinions of what "will" happen. The fact is the guy was hurt, period, and still hung with SA game for game. Gates was there last year, and a gimpy LT was on pace for 362 carries and 57 rec. Yes LT's yd/rec went up, and his yd/rush went down. The fact that his yd/rec went up, does not say he was not affected by the groin injury. If that's the case, I'll counter you with, Being his yd/rush went down from 5.3 to 3.9, the injury did have a big affect. Wow, that was easy. I'm not saying LT would have had a career high in yd/rush last year, but it would of been better then 3.9. You fail to address that LT's two down years were one, his rookie year on a very bad team, and another when he was hobbled. To you this does not matter, right? Sorry, to me those two things factor into the numbers. If you don't see that, you are just plain wrong, sorry. Take off the LT hater glasses.
Touches, you talk'n about touches??? You say he will get less this year because of Gates. LT was on pace for 418 touches last year, before sitting out the last game. That would of been his 2nd highest total ever (2001 = 398, 2002 = 451, 2003 = 413), and THAT WAS WITH GATES. He is a lock for 400+ touches, no matter who is on his team. Explain to me how this is wrong, please.
I know SA had a career high in touches last year. That is my point. How much higher do you think he will go, if they RUN MORE? Then you touch on the 2 to 2 thing again. I just can't get over how you think their points scored per year & per game, here does not matter. 2 to 2, 2 to 2... One was a rookie year for LT, the other he played hurt. Both do matter, and should be taken into consideration. I can't talk about this 2 to 2 stuff anymore. I never said 5+ yd/rush was the norm, but I know 3.9 isn't the norm either. And for the last time, I don't care how effective he is, where or how he gets touches, the facts are that he has easily out scored SA pts/gm, over the last 3 seasons. Only you are able to tell us all how each players touches will change this year. You take that special talent and run with it, I will stick to the facts, and what each has done in the past.
SD could go 0 - 16 or 16 - 0. Either way LT will get 400+ touches, something SA HAS NEVER DONE. LT's losest ever, 398 touches in his rookie year, is still 22 more touches then SA's best year. Like I said, he was on pace for 418 touches last year, WITH GATES. Now tell me again why this is going down this year.
Bringing in Holmes/LJ is a nice touch. Try finding a quote by me that says LT has had, or will have a higher pt/gm average then Holmes, or Holmes/LJ last year. You ain't going to find it my man. The title of the thread is, Why LT2 over Shaun A at 1.01. That is what I am discussing, and proving for that matter. No where does it mention LT/Holmes, so I won't go there. Nice try though.
Not a great job with the questions.
I'm not trying to be an a##, but your points have not made me budge even a fraction on my stance. Actually, they have done the opposite. You may say the same, but all you are using to argue your point is half observed past stats, and unknown future production. Fantasy football is not about what you read, or look at, it's what you do with, and take from that information. We could look at the same stats, or read the same article, but we would take away totally different information and ideas from that information. That's just the was this stuff is. You just do not take the entire picture into account. You pick and chose what is important, while dismissing some very important things. You keep saying it's 2 to 2, but don't use any other factors for each year. You say LT's touches will go down, yet he was on pace for 418 last year, with the same team. When you fail to learn from what has happened in the past, and try to overanalyze what will happen in the future, you will get burnt. 2 to 2 doesn't matter as much as the most glaring and important fact: LT = 19.81/gm (AVG-last 3 yrs) vs. SA = 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years. Period. That's over 2pts/gm better, over the last 3 years. LT's average is better then SA's best season ever. Your look into the future, must convince me that SA is going to make up a 2.12 pt/gm disadvantage over the last 3 years, this season. Good luck.
Lasty I'll throw out some projections. Keeping in mind I change them all the time, and really have not sat done to do my finals for the year.
PLEASE do the same.
LT:
rush = 350/1580/16
rec = 60/450/2
total = 65/2030/18 = 311
SA:
rush = 340/1565/17
rec = 28/210/2
total = 28/1775/19 = 291.5
Like I said, these are not set in stone, and probably will/have chaged over the off-season.
Edited to add: I really think LT is primed to have a huge year, but I don't want to go overboard. Those numbers are what I think he will get, without much trouble, while SA's numbers are on the higher side.