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Why LT2 over Shaun A at 1.01? (1 Viewer)

If I had the top pick, I'd be deciding between LT and Priest, not LT and Alexander.

Alexander is a very good back, but he doesn't have LT's upside.

Tomlinson wasn't himself last season. Look at all the long runs Chatman busted in the fourth quarter of games last year when Tomlinson was out because of his groin: 21-yd TD vs TEN, 41-yd TD vs JAX, 52-yd run vs CAR, etc. A healthy Tomlinson would have gotten those runs, and he probably would have been 0.5 YPC or so better on the rest of his runs as well.

I watched a tape a few days ago of the Chargers-Broncos game from week 13 of the 2002 season. Tomlinson and Portis were both unbelievable. Alexander simply doesn't have the explosiveness or moves of either of those guys. After watching them last season in a down year, it's easy to forget how really good both Tomlinson and Portis can be when they are at their best. They can be awesome.

While both talent and team situation are important, I'm a big believer in giving more weight to talent. I've watched every down LT has played as a pro, and I think he's the best RB in the league. His upside potential has yet to be fully tapped.
Wasn't this "upside" myth disproven last year with Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber?For some reason certain guys get this label as having no upside, while others get labeled as having great upside. I heard another poster say it well once: Basically, if a RB has never accomplished it, we like to label him as having great upside, but if a RB has just been consistently good, then we like to say that he has no upside....and its a ridiculous notion, as was proven last year with guys like Martin and Barber being top 5 RBs while upside guys like Barlow falling on their faces.

And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.
I agree. Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me. You would think this guy was producing and outproducing his peers more than guys like Faulk were. It simply is NOT so. This whole thing with LT sounds more like a high school popularity contest to me than a fantasy debate, always has.
 
And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.

Why does it matter that SA has finished #1, and LT has not? He out did LT by 0.12pt/gm, while on his way to his best season ever, while LT limped to his "3rd" best season ever.

If you can answer my two questions from my previous post, I may see your side.

 
Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me.
I don't know what you mean by "God," but people like LT because he's really, really good. That escapes you?Maybe you disagree about how good he is. Or maybe you think his talent is offset by a poor team situation.

But the pro-LT argument, whether you agree with it or not, shouldn't lie beyond anyone's comprehension. It's not complicated: he's the best RB in the league, and he's on a team sees fit to give him the ball a lot.

 
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And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.

Why does it matter that SA has finished #1, and LT has not? He out did LT by 0.12pt/gm, while on his way to his best season ever, while LT limped to his "3rd" best season ever.

If you can answer my two questions from my previous post, I may see your side.

What 2 questions are you referencing?

 
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
This is true but in the past he's always had monster Priest seasons to contend with... .I think Priest's peak days are behind him. Last year LT2 overtrained too early trying to get a jump on the season. The result? He hurt himself because he didn't give his body time to recuperate. THis year he took a few weeks off and then started a innovative new program with the top-rated physical trainer in the country. He's been running crazy 2-a-days involving all sorts of crazy new types of resistance training drills. He has stated repeatedly that he is in the best shape of his career and is setting his personal goal at 2200 yards.

LT2 is healthier and stronger than he's been in a long time.... get ready for a sick season out of this kid. I have first pick in my company redraft league... it's a PtPerRec league and I've never been more sure of a pick in my life.....

 
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Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me.
I don't know what you mean by "God," but people like LT because he's really, really good. That escapes you?Maybe you disagree about how good he is. Or maybe you think his talent is offset by a poor team situation.

But the pro-LT argument, whether you agree with it or not, shouldn't lie beyond anyone's comprehension. It's not complicated: he's the best RB in the league, and he's on a team sees fit to give him the ball a lot.
No I disagree with the perception of how good a fantasy player he is.
 
And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.
Why does it matter that SA has finished #1, and LT has not? He out did LT by 0.12pt/gm, while on his way to his best season ever, while LT limped to his "3rd" best season ever.

If you can answer my two questions from my previous post, I may see your side.

What 2 questions are you referencing?

I posted above:

If your looking at end of year total points, and that is the only thing you base your opinion on, then yes, that is what the stats say. But if you factor in that in 2001 LT was a rookie, and in 2004 he fought through a groin injury, was pulled a lot because of it and sat out the last game to rest, then I'd say it may sway your opinion. LT easily out scored SA in 2002 & 2003. SA only outscored LT last year by 0.12pts/gm, in SA's best season ever. The only year he really distanced himself from LT was in LT's rookie season. How did SA do in his rookie year??? Maybe we should include those stats. Even with LT's rookie year, he still out performs SA over the last 4 years on a pts/gm basis.

2004 - LT = 19.04/gm & SA = 19.16/gm (+0.12pt/gm for SA)

2003 - LT = 21.19/gm & SA = 16.81/gm (+4.38pt/gm for LT)

2002 - LT = 19.20/gm & SA = 17.09/gm (+2.11pt/gm for LT)

2001 - LT = 13.77/gm & SA = 16.38/gm (+2.61pt/gm for SA)

--------------------------------------------------

AVG - LT = 18.30/gm & SA = 17.36/gm

These averages are even a bit whacky. Looking at the last 3 years, it is clear who is the better choice ( LT = 19.81 to SA 17.69). LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, are still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). That's what I get from the stats, not 2 to 2.

Looking at past performance, ability of each RB and how I believe they will continue to play, I really don't think there is any arguement that could be made, that would make be believe that SA is a better pick then LT this year. I just don't see it in a "Non" PPR league, and it isn't an argument in a PPR league.

Please answer these ?'s

Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons? What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?

Being that an average year for LT outscores a career year by SA, I'll still take LT.

 
I could say if the KC D improves AND Priest stays healthy, they may pull him at the end of games where they are ahead and throw in LJ, which clouds the mix even more
You're ignoring the fact that when they pull Holmes at the end of games, he already has 120 yards and 3 TDs.
 
All this Alexander talk, I just don't understand it.  If you want a guy who will all most 100% get you 1700yds/17tds, take Alexander.  If you want a guy who will almost 100% get you 1700yds/16tds, but may also get you 2200yds/18tds, take LT.

If you look at the numbers a previous poster put up, last year Alexander and LT were almost dead even in pts/gm.  That was with LT nursing a bad groin and giving way to Chatman a lot, while Alexander had his best year ever.  Say his line sucks.  Prior to 2003, everyone said his line was the worst in the league and he went for 2370/17.  SD may have a tougher schedule, but if they can't run, or are losing, LT will still be a big part of the passing game.  Plus how accurate are the schedule predictions anyways.  Alexander is a safe pick, hell the guy is very good, but LT just has more upside.  If you are the type of owner that just can't take the smallest of risks when drafting in the 1st round, by all means take Alexander.  Although I don't think LT is a risk at all.  And I doubt the best RB in the league will get pulled for a rookie on 3rd downs.  This is a guy who had 100 receptions let's not forget.

LT "WILL" out score Alexander this year, you can write it down and take it to the bank.  And in PPR leagues, it won't even be close.
You realize LT has never been the #1 back in Fantasy Football?
You don't draft LT #1 expecting him to be the #1 back. You draft him #1 with the knowledge that there's very little chance (barring injury) that he finishes out of the top 3 backs.LT is the safest #1 pick, IMO.

 
Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me.
I don't know what you mean by "God," but people like LT because he's really, really good. That escapes you?Maybe you disagree about how good he is. Or maybe you think his talent is offset by a poor team situation.

But the pro-LT argument, whether you agree with it or not, shouldn't lie beyond anyone's comprehension. It's not complicated: he's the best RB in the league, and he's on a team sees fit to give him the ball a lot.
No I disagree with the perception of how good a fantasy player he is.
I got that part, but I was trying to find out if you think it's because others are overestimating his talent or if it's because they are overestimating his team situation.
 
Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me.
I don't know what you mean by "God," but people like LT because he's really, really good. That escapes you?Maybe you disagree about how good he is. Or maybe you think his talent is offset by a poor team situation.

But the pro-LT argument, whether you agree with it or not, shouldn't lie beyond anyone's comprehension. It's not complicated: he's the best RB in the league, and he's on a team sees fit to give him the ball a lot.
No I disagree with the perception of how good a fantasy player he is.
I got that part, but I was trying to find out if you think it's because others are overestimating his talent or if it's because they are overestimating his team situation.
Talent ever so slightly, he is probably the best RB in the league, at worst top 3. Situation, yes I think in comparison to SA it is significantly overrated.
 
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
Look forward to seeing this. I am so tired of the LT walks on water perception around here and in FF in general. He is not of the caliber of Faulk or Holmes and SA is getting very little respect because of bad PR last year IMO.
How can you say that considering what he has done on a terrible football team until last year? SA is a good RB but he has nowhere near the intangibles of LT - dedication to the game, will to win, teamwork, and willingness to play through injuries. Take SA if you want and you'll probably be fine, but I'll take my chances with LT.
 
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If I had the top pick, I'd be deciding between LT and Priest, not LT and Alexander.

Alexander is a very good back, but he doesn't have LT's upside.

Tomlinson wasn't himself last season. Look at all the long runs Chatman busted in the fourth quarter of games last year when Tomlinson was out because of his groin: 21-yd TD vs TEN, 41-yd TD vs JAX, 52-yd run vs CAR, etc. A healthy Tomlinson would have gotten those runs, and he probably would have been 0.5 YPC or so better on the rest of his runs as well.

I watched a tape a few days ago of the Chargers-Broncos game from week 13 of the 2002 season. Tomlinson and Portis were both unbelievable. Alexander simply doesn't have the explosiveness or moves of either of those guys. After watching them last season in a down year, it's easy to forget how really good both Tomlinson and Portis can be when they are at their best. They can be awesome.

While both talent and team situation are important, I'm a big believer in giving more weight to talent. I've watched every down LT has played as a pro, and I think he's the best RB in the league. His upside potential has yet to be fully tapped.
Wasn't this "upside" myth disproven last year with Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber?For some reason certain guys get this label as having no upside, while others get labeled as having great upside. I heard another poster say it well once: Basically, if a RB has never accomplished it, we like to label him as having great upside, but if a RB has just been consistently good, then we like to say that he has no upside....and its a ridiculous notion, as was proven last year with guys like Martin and Barber being top 5 RBs while upside guys like Barlow falling on their faces.

And its the exact same thing here: SA has been the #1 overall RB before. LT2 has not. Bottom line. Yet for some reason, we reward the guy who has not accomplished the feat because his not having yet accomplished it somehow means he has "upside" where the accomplished RB has already reached top status and apparanently has no "upside." I think its silly.

Just my 2 cents.
LT has been the #3 RB the last 3 years behind Priest twice, Ricky Williams, Ahman Green, and Barber in their career years and SA last year (barely and he played injured half the season).Priest and Faulk are the only RB's to have 3 straight seasons in the top 3 and neither did so as early as LT. The last guy to go it before them was Emmitt and he's the only one who did it from the beginning of his career.

 
Like I said earlier, people just don't seem to "like" SA due to some bad PR and view LT as some sort of fantasy God for reason that simply escape me.
I don't know what you mean by "God," but people like LT because he's really, really good. That escapes you?Maybe you disagree about how good he is. Or maybe you think his talent is offset by a poor team situation.

But the pro-LT argument, whether you agree with it or not, shouldn't lie beyond anyone's comprehension. It's not complicated: he's the best RB in the league, and he's on a team sees fit to give him the ball a lot.
No I disagree with the perception of how good a fantasy player he is.
I got that part, but I was trying to find out if you think it's because others are overestimating his talent or if it's because they are overestimating his team situation.
Talent ever so slightly, he is probably the best RB in the league, at worst top 3. Situation, yes I think in comparison to SA it is significantly overrated.
Situation, eh? So the one where the coach loves him (helping him continue his TD streak) and the team basically gave him whatever he wanted is worse than the one where the coach won't even help give him the rushing title and the team is playing hardball with his contract?Oh, and find me a quote where Holmgren says this about SA:

"He's the best running back I've ever seen," Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer said.

--

Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer says he's run out of superlatives to describe Tomlinson. Since he's already called LT the best back he's ever seen, additional praise would be redundant. Yet such was the effect of Tomlinson's efforts yesterday that Schottenheimer was moved to seek a second opinion from defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

"I turned to Wade in the locker room and I said, 'Wade, I know you've seen him before, but up close and like this . . . have you ever seen anybody like him?' " Schottenheimer recalled.

"He looked at me and said, 'Marty, I really don't get a chance to watch him during the game.' "

--

San Diego coach Marty Schottenheimer has raved about LaDainian Tomlinson this week, calling him "a combination of Walter Payton and Barry Sanders."

 
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In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
When exactly is this article coming out? Ive been hearing about it for a week or so.....I wanna read it already!
 
He's also a better recieving threat than Alexander.
That's the juice for me right there.Since all else is pretty much equal betwen these players, I'll take a double threat over a "run-dimensional" back every time.LT is much more likely to get you 2G total yards - and weekly yardage numbers - than SA. And I think they are comparable TD threats, with LT having aslight edge in historical TD production.Finally, in 1/rec leagues, LT at 1.01 is a no-brainer
 
He's also a better recieving threat than Alexander.
That's the juice for me right there.Since all else is pretty much equal betwen these players, I'll take a double threat over a "run-dimensional" back every time.

LT is much more likely to get you 2G total yards - and weekly yardage numbers - than SA. And I think they are comparable TD threats, with LT having aslight edge in historical TD production.

Finally, in 1/rec leagues, LT at 1.01 is a no-brainer
Please don't tell me you really think all else is equal or that SA is not a rec threat. Last year was the only one in whcih he did not have 40+ rec. It amusses me how people are so quick to jump all over SA for not being a rec threat when it has happend all of 1 year out of the 4. LT has a YPA bellow 4.0 half the time yet all is forgton. How would you rate the Sea Oline vs SD? How would you rate the Sea O as a whole vs SD? Who do you think has the better overall team? Who do you think plays in a more favorable division? They are comparable TD threats yet LT scores once every 27.6 touches, SA once every 20.7 touches. The Sea O and Oline is far better than that of SD. LT posses a better rec threat and may have better pure ability, but not enough to overcome the difference in Os IMO. Both are the center of their respective teams and both are studs, but it really is concerning that everyone places LT lightyears ahead of SA IMO.
 
in terms of the stats they've put up the past several years, i think the debate over who should be the #1 pick is completely valid... but the one thing that puts LT2 over the top for me is his consistency. SA has shown the past few seasons that he can MONSTER games (e.g. the 5 TD game 2 seasons ago, i think he had a 4 TD game last season), but he has also proven that he can have games where he disappears and leaves his owners scratching their heads. Although LT2 will never have those ridiculous multi-TD games, he always comes through for his owners (literal and fantasy) rushing and receiving a respectable yardage with 1 to 2 TDs a game. In my opinion, a guy who can get me 20 a game consistently is more valuable than a guy who scores 30 one game and 10 the next. I know it's not "scientific", but that's my take on it.

 
How would you rate the Sea Oline vs SD? How would you rate the Sea O as a whole vs SD? Who do you think has the better overall team? Who do you think plays in a more favorable division?
Please apply these very same questions to the 2002 and 2003 seasons.Shaun Alexander is a good running back. LaDainian is a special player. If he can go full speed for the whole season you will see his numbers return to pretty close to what he did in 2003, and possibly even better.
 
but the one thing that puts LT2 over the top for me is his consistency.
Here are the per-game points from SA and LT from my league last year:SA = 37-5-25-B-23-17-6-38-30-19-16-4-21-18-9-35-16

LT = 18-24-9-24-21-14-11-14-14-B-25-22-27-22-23-32

SA

4 games under 10 points

7 games over 20 points

8 games between 14 and 25 points

LT

1 game under 10 points (9)

9 games over 20 points

12 games between 14 and 25 points

SA had the bigger weeks, but LT was definitely more consistent.

 
With Koren Robinson gone and Engram and Jurevicious in the line up SEA should be in the red zone more often. KoRo was a deep threat when he actually caught the ball, Engram and Jurevicious (hope I am spelling it even close) will not provide the big play but will keep the chains moving. This plays to SA getting the goal line carries.

 
He's also a better recieving threat than Alexander.
That's the juice for me right there.Since all else is pretty much equal betwen these players, I'll take a double threat over a "run-dimensional" back every time.

LT is much more likely to get you 2G total yards - and weekly yardage numbers - than SA. And I think they are comparable TD threats, with LT having aslight edge in historical TD production.

Finally, in 1/rec leagues, LT at 1.01 is a no-brainer
Please don't tell me you really think all else is equal or that SA is not a rec threat. Last year was the only one in whcih he did not have 40+ rec. It amusses me how people are so quick to jump all over SA for not being a rec threat when it has happend all of 1 year out of the 4. LT has a YPA bellow 4.0 half the time yet all is forgton. How would you rate the Sea Oline vs SD? How would you rate the Sea O as a whole vs SD? Who do you think has the better overall team? Who do you think plays in a more favorable division? They are comparable TD threats yet LT scores once every 27.6 touches, SA once every 20.7 touches. The Sea O and Oline is far better than that of SD. LT posses a better rec threat and may have better pure ability, but not enough to overcome the difference in Os IMO. Both are the center of their respective teams and both are studs, but it really is concerning that everyone places LT lightyears ahead of SA IMO.
jurb26,You talk about how last year was the only year SA had less then 40 rec. But you fail to mention that in the years he had all those receptions, he still did not match his yardage total of 1866 from last year. You say LT has had a sub 4.0 ypc two of the last four years, yet you fail to mention on average he has been a better fantasy RB then SA over the last four years. You say SA has a better team and better line, yet you fail to realize that he has had the same over the last 4 years, and on average he has been out performed by LT. You also fail to mention that prior to the 2003 season, the SD line was said to be one of the worst in the league, and LT put up 2370/17 for 339pts. Last I checked LT was still playing in the same division that year as well. So SA scores more often per touch, who cares, he also scores less fantasy points on average, over the last 4 years. J. Bettis scored once every 19.69 touches last year, does that make him the #1 RB? Yes, LT is a better all around RB, and Yes he has covercome the difference in O's as you stated he could not do. Again, he's averaged more pts/gm over the last 4 years, period. One thing you are right on is that they are both studs, and LT is not light years ahead of SA in a non PPR league, but he is ahead of him.

I posted some of this earlier, but no one has yet to answer the questions I posed at the end. Maybe you can take a crack at it.

Here are their stats/pts for the last four years. The thing that stands out to me is last year, SA had is best year ever, and still only outproduced a gimpy LT, who was pulled often, 19.16/gm to 19.04/gm. That's sad.

The numbers don't lie.

2004 - LT = 19.04/gm & SA = 19.16/gm (+0.12pt/gm for SA)

2003 - LT = 21.19/gm & SA = 16.81/gm (+4.38pt/gm for LT)

2002 - LT = 19.20/gm & SA = 17.09/gm (+2.11pt/gm for LT)

2001 - LT = 13.77/gm & SA = 16.38/gm (+2.61pt/gm for SA)

--------------------------------------------------

AVG - LT = 18.30/gm & SA = 17.36/gm

These averages are even a bit whacky, because LT just wasn't as good as a rookie. Looking at the last 3 years, it is clear who is the better choice ( LT = 19.81 to SA = 17.69). LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). That's what I get from the stats. That tells the entire story for me.

Please answer these ?'s

Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?

What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?

Being that an average year for LT outscores a career year by SA, I'll still take LT.

 
I could see the argument of Shaun over LT2. Both seem to be improving each and every year. Both are the workhorse of their team. Here's a breakdown between 2001-2004 (since LT2 wasn't in the NFL in 2000, and Alexander wasn't even the starter that year):

LT: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235249

Alexander: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/187382

Games Started: LT2 <> Alexander (63 to 59 - slight edge to LT2)

Total TDs: LT2 <> Alexander (65 to 72 - slight edge to Alexander)

Rushing Yards: LT2 <> Alexander (5899 to 5624 - slight edge to LT2)

Rushing Attempts: LT2 <> Alexander (1363 to 1283 - slight edge to Alexander, due to fewer attempts)

Average/Carry: LT2 <> Alexander (4.3 to 4.4 - slight edge to Alexander)

Receptions: LT2 > Alexander (291 to 168)

Receiving Yards: LT2 > Alexander (2022 to 1268)

Fumbles: LT2 <> Alexander (19 to 18 - slight edge to Alexander)

Open Offense: LT2 <> Alexander

Strength of Schedule (for 2005): LT2 < Alexander

So overall, it's tough to say WHO is the better back. But here's the one reason why I feel LT2 is slighty ranked higher: He has made more with less. Last year was really the only year he has had any semblence of an offense, and look what he did -- had his best season yet. Alexander, albeit great himself, has had a decent offense around him pretty much his entire career.

I think overall, if San Diego can continue to improve on offense, LT2 will only continue to dominate and improve. He is the complete package -- rushing, receiving, blocking.

 
LT2 schedule:

2005 Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 11 Dallas 4:15pm

Sep 18 @Denver 4:15pm

Sep 25 N.Y. Giants 8:30pm

Oct 2 @New England 1:00pm

Oct 10 Pittsburgh 9:00pm

Oct 16 @Oakland 4:15pm

Oct 23 @Philadelphia 1:00pm

Oct 30 Kansas City 4:05pm

Nov 6 @N.Y. Jets 1:00pm

Week 10 BYE

Nov 20 Buffalo 4:15pm

Nov 27 @Washington 1:00pm

Dec 4 Oakland 8:30pm

Dec 11 Miami 4:15pm

Dec 18 @Indianapolis 1:00pm

Dec 24 @Kansas City 1:00pm

Dec 31 Denver 4:30pm

Shaun A schedule:

2005 Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 11 @Jacksonville 1:00pm

Sep 18 Atlanta 4:05pm

Sep 25 Arizona 4:05pm

Oct 2 @Washington 1:00pm

Oct 9 @St. Louis 1:00pm

Oct 16 Houston 8:30pm

Oct 23 Dallas 4:05pm

Week 8 BYE

Nov 6 @Arizona 4:05pm

Nov 13 St. Louis 4:15pm

Nov 20 @San Francisco 4:05pm

Nov 27 N.Y. Giants 4:15pm

Dec 5 @Philadelphia 9:00pm

Dec 11 San Francisco 4:05pm

Dec 18 @Tennessee 1:00pm

Dec 24 Indianapolis 4:15pm

Jan 1 @Green Bay 4:15pm

Shaun A is in a contract year.

LT2's OL has gone to Miami.

LT2 had a <4.0 ypc.

Shaun A has never had below 4.0

Shaun A's schedule is ridiculously easy even come playoff time except perhaps vs the Colts in the championship.

Perhaps in leagues that award points for receptions LT2 is the #1, but I have troubles not seeing Shaun A as the #1 RB this season (except perhaps Priest Holmes)

Please convince me otherwise...
I havent read many of the above posts, so this may already have been mentioned but the first thing that jumped out at me is LTs schdule during the fantasy playoffs. These are both anticipated shoot-outs and LT should take advantage. With that said SAs schedule looks pretty easy overall, but I just have a hard time passing up a back like LT who is a near lock for 100 yrds and at least 1 TD every week. SA seems to be more of a boom or bust week (a handful of huge games every year to pad the stats), and with my first pick i want consistent production.
 
You talk about how last year was the only year SA had less then 40 rec. But you fail to mention that in the years he had all those receptions, he still did not match his yardage total of 1866 from last year.
Care to look at his rushes, thats where you'll find your answer.
You say LT has had a sub 4.0 ypc two of the last four years, yet you fail to mention on average he has been a better fantasy RB then SA over the last four years.
Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years. Care to tell me how LT's average of 4 is somehow "better" than SA's. Oh and don't give me that shtick about how his finishes are more consistent so it is better.
You say SA has a better team and better line, yet you fail to realize that he has had the same over the last 4 years, and on average he has been out performed by LT.
LT has not outperformed SA due to rushing, it's been rec that has helped him along. Gates now posses a serious threat to that as seen buy his 4 year low in rec last year. And yes, Sea did make upgrades to the depth of the Oline yet again via the draft.
You also fail to mention that prior to the 2003 season, the SD line was said to be one of the worst in the league, and LT put up 2370/17 for 339pts.
Again, your not taking apples to apples. LT was able to perform that well fantasy wise due to the 100 rec, over 700 yds and 4 TDs via the air. Are you expecting those types of rec numbers again with Gates now in town?
Last I checked LT was still playing in the same division that year as well. So SA scores more often per touch, who cares, he also scores less fantasy points on average, over the last 4 years.
Who cares, I care and so should you. Sea has said they are planning to commit to the run more and has one of the best Olines in the NFL to do it. That likely means more of SA and more of him scoring. How sue are you that LT will continue to see his lofty 415 touchs a year that he is currently averaging? In an O that is supposed to be maturing, I can't see this as a very stable thing to expect anymore. As SD's O improves, LT's touches should go down. SA has no such worry.
Here are their stats/pts for the last four years. The thing that stands out to me is last year, SA had is best year ever, and still only outproduced a gimpy LT, who was pulled often, 19.16/gm to 19.04/gm. That's sad.
Sad? Hello, LT actually played on a better TEAM than did SA last year! I'll tell you what I think is sad. The fact that noone recognizes that LT was only able to have such a finish due to an extremly abnormal amount of touches in the redzone. Are we expecting this agian also? I for one do not have confidence in SD this year. I think they played way above their heads last year for some reason ans will fall back to earth a bit. This is a major problem I have with LT, because of the readzone issue. If you think that SD is a 12-4 team again or even 9-7, then I can see why you have the utmost confidence in LT. I simply do not though.
 
You talk about how last year was the only year SA had less then 40 rec.  But you fail to mention that in the years he had all those receptions, he still did not match his yardage total of 1866 from last year.
Care to look at his rushes, thats where you'll find your answer.
  You say LT has had a sub 4.0 ypc two of the last four years, yet you fail to mention on average he has been a better fantasy RB then SA over the last four years.
Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years. Care to tell me how LT's average of 4 is somehow "better" than SA's. Oh and don't give me that shtick about how his finishes are more consistent so it is better.
  You say SA has a better team and better line, yet you fail to realize that he has had the same over the last 4 years, and on average he has been out performed by LT.
LT has not outperformed SA due to rushing, it's been rec that has helped him along. Gates now posses a serious threat to that as seen buy his 4 year low in rec last year. And yes, Sea did make upgrades to the depth of the Oline yet again via the draft.
You also fail to mention that prior to the 2003 season, the SD line was said to be one of the worst in the league, and LT put up 2370/17 for 339pts.
Again, your not taking apples to apples. LT was able to perform that well fantasy wise due to the 100 rec, over 700 yds and 4 TDs via the air. Are you expecting those types of rec numbers again with Gates now in town?
Last I checked LT was still playing in the same division that year as well.  So SA scores more often per touch, who cares, he also scores less fantasy points on average, over the last 4 years.
Who cares, I care and so should you. Sea has said they are planning to commit to the run more and has one of the best Olines in the NFL to do it. That likely means more of SA and more of him scoring. How sue are you that LT will continue to see his lofty 415 touchs a year that he is currently averaging? In an O that is supposed to be maturing, I can't see this as a very stable thing to expect anymore. As SD's O improves, LT's touches should go down. SA has no such worry.
Here are their stats/pts for the last four years.  The thing that stands out to me is last year, SA had is best year ever, and still only outproduced a gimpy LT, who was pulled often, 19.16/gm to 19.04/gm.  That's sad.
Sad? Hello, LT actually played on a better TEAM than did SA last year! I'll tell you what I think is sad. The fact that noone recognizes that LT was only able to have such a finish due to an extremly abnormal amount of touches in the redzone. Are we expecting this agian also? I for one do not have confidence in SD this year. I think they played way above their heads last year for some reason ans will fall back to earth a bit. This is a major problem I have with LT, because of the readzone issue. If you think that SD is a 12-4 team again or even 9-7, then I can see why you have the utmost confidence in LT. I simply do not though.
I'll take your responses one by one, because I am clueless with this quote stuff.My first point was that you say he had less then 40 rec for the first time, but fail to mention he had his highest ever yardage total. Do you realize he had the most touches 376, of his career last year? ('03 = 368, '02 = 354, '01 = 353) My point is, and I will touch on this later, it doesn't matter how a RB gets his touches/yardage (in non PPR leagues). All that matters is his final yardage and TD's. Are you saying SA will have more then 376 touches this year, resulting in more yardage? If so, that would be his second career year in a row.

The fact that you keep refering to where each has finished at the end of each year, "Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years", is a total joke. Dude, what matters is their POINTS SCORED, not where they finish. A 4th place finish in 2004, will not always equal the same point total as a 4th place finish in another year. Does your league give fantasy points based on what place a player finishes in? Did you read my post on the average number of points each has scored over the last 4 years? I guess not, because you failed to reference that in your response.

This one is good. I know LT has out produced SA because of total yardage (rushing & rec), not just rushing. But all the points count right? That's why he is better. Gates my hurt LT in receiving, but don't you think that also opens things up in the rushing department? More weapons = less focus on LT. Once again, do you think that the injury had anything to do with the 4 year low in receptions? Receiving yardage is the same as rushing yardage right?

Yes, I know LT had 100/725/4 in 2003, and no I don't think he will repeat those numbers. Like above you fail at all to recognize that LT played through injury last year, and that may have contributed to his decline in numbers all around. He could easily post 65/450/2 this year. Like above a better overall team, compared to the one in 2003, means less focusing on LT. That only helps him.

SEA says they will run more, I haven't heard that before. Plus SEA has had one of the best O-Lines in the league for a few years now. How much better will they get? Do you know how many touches SA will get this year? No one can predict that, for any player. The facts are the facts, LT has out scored SA over the last 4 years. The only result of LT getting fewer touches this year, is his TD/touch ratio will go up. That sould make him move up your draft board, right? You didn't say how you liked Bettis with his ratio.

Alright, SD was a better team last year, but SEA will be better this year??? With the way the NFL is these days, I'm glad you have a clear vision on how teams will perform in the upcoming season. Break down redzone touches all you want, you can't get away from how each player has performed over the last 4 years. I don't care how they get their points, that fact of the matter is, LT gets more on average over the last 4 years. LT was good when SD was bad, and he was good when they were good. It doesn't matter for him because he will be involved if they are running out a lead, or trying to play catch-up.

All you do is try to come up with reasons why LT will not produce as he has in the past. Less involvement in the passing game, less redzone touches, yada, yada, yada... The way you talk the guy is 2nd rounder.

And for the last time:

LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). Do you see that? Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter. 19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters. LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters. Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.

So I ask you for the second time:

Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?

What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?

Your answers would be greatly appreciated.

 
And for the last time:LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). Do you see that? Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter. 19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters. LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters. Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.So I ask you for the second time:Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
:goodposting:
 
And for the last time:

LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). Do you see that? Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter. 19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters. LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters. Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.

So I ask you for the second time:

Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?

What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
:goodposting:
double :goodposting: jurb - do you contest that SA is less likely than LT to get 2G total yards?

I'm a bottom line kind of guy, and LT's receiving numbers - and his CONSISTENT receiving numbers seem to indicate, to me at leastm that he is much more likely to hit his high average each week than SA.

I'm not saying there is no argument for SA over LT - esp. in leagues that do not reward pt/rec - but in a pt/rec league, IMO, LT over SA is a no brainer.

 
My first point was that you say he had less then 40 rec for the first time, but fail to mention he had his highest ever yardage total. Do you realize he had the most touches 376, of his career last year? ('03 = 368, '02 = 354, '01 = 353) My point is, and I will touch on this later, it doesn't matter how a RB gets his touches/yardage (in non PPR leagues). All that matters is his final yardage and TD's. Are you saying SA will have more then 376 touches this year, resulting in more yardage? If so, that would be his second career year in a row.
I think SA's touches will remain about the same. The only reason I brought this up in the 1st place is because you and other tried to use the lack of rec as a negitive against SA. You have just proved for me how that was false though. Thank you.
The fact that you keep refering to where each has finished at the end of each year, "Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years", is a total joke. Dude, what matters is their POINTS SCORED, not where they finish. A 4th place finish in 2004, will not always equal the same point total as a 4th place finish in another year. Does your league give fantasy points based on what place a player finishes in? Did you read my post on the average number of points each has scored over the last 4 years? I guess not, because you failed to reference that in your response.
LOL, you brought it up, not me. I don't know what kind of leagues you play in, but where the player finishes vs his peers IS WHAT MATTERS! What do I care if LT or SA scored 1000 points if there were 4 other RBs that scored 1200? Simply scoring a lot of points means nothing if others are still scoring more. I love how we continually hear that LT has more upside than SA. Well, I guess thats right in some strange way. I mean how much more up can you get than being the 1RB in fantasy football, a feet LT has yet to accomplish. As for your points comparison, yes it is slightly in favor of LT. Umm, OK, what difference does that make if you see changes that can prevent LT from hitting them again (as I happen to) and you don't see those same changes for SA?
This one is good. I know LT has out produced SA because of total yardage (rushing & rec), not just rushing. But all the points count right? That's why he is better. Gates my hurt LT in receiving, but don't you think that also opens things up in the rushing department? More weapons = less focus on LT. Once again, do you think that the injury had anything to do with the 4 year low in receptions? Receiving yardage is the same as rushing yardage right?
No, I don't think the injury had much to do with it. I think that Gates was the major factor and he is not going away. Do you not find it odd that LT caught less passes yet his YPR went up? It's rather clear the injury was not keeping him form being effective in the passing game, but there were now 2 options to split those passes between. The bottom line is that this team now has 2 go to players and not just LT. It just so happens that the other threat stands to dip into the very numbers that pushed LT over the top, his rec numbers. Does this concern me, YES. I understand that LT was hurt last year, but you act as though we are to assume that had he not been hurt he would have seen his career high YPA. Here are LT's YPA over the years, you tell me which stands out the most: 3.6, 4.5, 5.3, 3.9. Sorry if I don't jump all over that 5+ and assume it is the norm. Do I thik LT could have been more effective fully healhty, yes of course but his 4 years have left us with less than conclusive results and have actually jumped all over the board.
Yes, I know LT had 100/725/4 in 2003, and no I don't think he will repeat those numbers. Like above you fail at all to recognize that LT played through injury last year, and that may have contributed to his decline in numbers all around. He could easily post 65/450/2 this year. Like above a better overall team, compared to the one in 2003, means less focusing on LT. That only helps him.
No, it will mean less touches for LT IMO. That is why I showed the numbers for effectivness per touch in regards to scoring. SA looks to remain stable in that department to me, LT looks to decrease. If you balance out the touches, SA excells more.
SEA says they will run more, I haven't heard that before. Plus SEA has had one of the best O-Lines in the league for a few years now. How much better will they get? Do you know how many touches SA will get this year? No one can predict that, for any player. The facts are the facts, LT has out scored SA over the last 4 years. The only result of LT getting fewer touches this year, is his TD/touch ratio will go up. That sould make him move up your draft board, right? You didn't say how you liked Bettis with his ratio.
Yeah, you have heard Sea say that they would run more... last year. Guess what they DID and so DID SA as you helped me to show earlier in your own post! On top of that, the more SA runs, the more effective he seems to get: 295 carries->4.0, 309 carries->4.3, 326 carries->4.4, 353->4.8. The facts are that over the last 4 years, SA has outscored LT 2 times and LT outscored SA 2 times. So SA was more valuable than LT in half those years and LT more vauable than SA in half those years. How do you know that LT getting less touches will net him more effectivness? I have already shown you how abnormal the number of touches LT received in the redzone was. What leads you to believe that SD will put him that such a pleasent position again? How do you now that it is the norm for LT run at 5+ yds a pop when he has only done it 1 of 4 years? I'm not even going to entertain the thought of comparing Bettis to either of these backs, sorry.
Alright, SD was a better team last year, but SEA will be better this year??? With the way the NFL is these days, I'm glad you have a clear vision on how teams will perform in the upcoming season. Break down redzone touches all you want, you can't get away from how each player has performed over the last 4 years. I don't care how they get their points, that fact of the matter is, LT gets more on average over the last 4 years. LT was good when SD was bad, and he was good when they were good. It doesn't matter for him because he will be involved if they are running out a lead, or trying to play catch-up.
Of course I have feelings on the teams, I'm sure you do too. If you don't agree with my feeling on SD, so be it. I see this as team in transistion still and a few years away. I think they played great and inspired football last year but over their heads. Could I be wrong, yes, but it still effects how I see them and the ops I seem them being able to provide LT in contrast to SA (2 RBs that are well ahead of their peers IMO). The fact is, things are CHANGING in SD while they are still very much the same in Sea. More weapons led to less involvment for LT last year based on his touches. SA still has that stud Oline, with added depth and has PROVEN he can be a top RB with other options in the same O as him. LT has not, he has always been the one and only option.All you do is try to come up with reasons why LT will not produce as he has in the past. Less involvement in the passing game, less redzone touches, yada, yada, yada... The way you talk the guy is 2nd rounder.

And for the last time:

LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16). Do you see that? Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter. 19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters. LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters. Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.
If this is really what you think then you should be argueing for Holmes/LJ, NOT LT.
Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?
This is adressed in the above info.
What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
As I have said thoughout the post, I see that "average" coming down for LT.This is fun. :thumbup: :popcorn:

 
jurb - do you contest that SA is less likely than LT to get 2G total yards?

I'm a bottom line kind of guy, and LT's receiving numbers - and his CONSISTENT receiving numbers seem to indicate, to me at leastm that he is much more likely to hit his high average each week than SA.

I'm not saying there is no argument for SA over LT - esp. in leagues that do not reward pt/rec - but in a pt/rec league, IMO, LT over SA is a no brainer.
Yes, but are you willing to contest that LT is less likely to get 20 total TDs.Are you telling me you can not see how Gates holds a direct relationship to LT's rec numbers?

 
jurb - do you contest that SA is less likely than LT to get 2G total yards?

I'm a bottom line kind of guy, and LT's receiving numbers - and his CONSISTENT receiving numbers seem to indicate, to me at leastm that he is much more likely to hit his high average each week than SA.

I'm not saying there is no argument for SA over LT - esp. in leagues that do not reward pt/rec - but in a pt/rec league, IMO, LT over SA is a no brainer.
Yes, but are you willing to contest that LT is less likely to get 20 total TDs.Are you telling me you can not see how Gates holds a direct relationship to LT's rec numbers?
The reality here is that the presence of Gates could cut either way. We just don't know.One possibility is that Gates' presence in the passing game will continue unabated and he'll cut into LT2's receiving opportunities and redzone chances.

A second possibility is that Gates saw a certain percentage if not a lot of his receiving opportunities b/c he was an unknown for the first half of the season. Now that he's a known commodity and coming off one of the great TE seasons ever, it stands to reason that defenses will be focusing their defenses a lot more on Gates from Week 1.

That, then, would lead to less direct focus on LT2, and therefore create better and more opportunities for him.

It's difficult to know at this point, and probably won't become clear during the preseason.

I, for one, think that Gates helps not hurts LT2 this season. Until Gates arrived in SD, LT2 was a virtual one man gang. SD had no one else, and he still rang up the numbers that he did. Having more weapons and thus preventing from keying on LT2 on every play should help him.

And ditto goes for another name that hasn't been mentioned much, Keenan McCardell. A solid, solid possession WR.

In the end, an improved, more reliable passing game only helps the running game. It balances the offense and prevents defenses from stacking the line, moves the chains, creates more rushing opportunities, more redzone work, and more scoring. All good as far as LT2 is concerned.

 
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Yes, but are you willing to contest that LT is less likely to get 20 total TDs.

Are you telling me you can not see how Gates holds a direct relationship to LT's rec numbers?
jurb,I'd wager SA gets less than 20 TDs this year, I haven't followed this thread all the way, but it seems the premise is that SA is better because he finished better last year.

Typically players statistics follow a regression to the mean, meaning SAs numbers are likely to be LESS than last years, LTs are likely to be GREATER.

I do think Gates affects LTs opportunities in the passing game, but as you noted his YPA went up, meaning it also helps him make more of his opportunities. I don't think you can completely discount his injury, unless you are looking to be totally biased, which it seems you are.

On the SEA side, do you NOT tihnk losing KRob will have an impact? Despite the hands-free football SEA's WRs have played the last few years, their passing game was more respected than it will be w/o KRob. Now I'm not suggesting defenses didn't game plan for SA as it was, but in fact it will be easier for them to stop him when they have less to worry about in the passing game. Perhaps this will result in increased opportunities, as you would likely suggest, but also it will likely result in SA doing less with each opportunity.

Additionally, how many times did SA drive the team down the field to score. It seems they got into the 20s with passing, and SA scored from short. Without a good passing game, those opportunities will decline.

Now I'm sure you have a different perspective, that's fine. But in the end, LT appears more likely to improve than SA, and SA seems more likely to decline than LT. I'm not sure how you can legitimately argue otherwise. The few glimpses of your reasoning seem strongly influenced by emotion, and less so by real reason. IMO.

 
Just wanted to add, for arguments sake, that in the three years prior to last, SA's YPC averaged 4.2. Even if he gets 353 carries again, but regresses to his average, he'll only have 1483 yards, down 200+ from last season.Also, thirteen of his TDs came from within the 10, 14 within the 20.Now LT's average in the prior three years is 4.5, and after 2004 he DID regress toward the mean, from 5.3 to 3.9. Likely he's still going to be over 4 this tear. His attempts last seaosn were close to his average already, unlike SAs which were higher than ever.Anyway, all of LTs TDs came from within the 20, fifteen came from within the 10. However when you look at the split of carries, LTs are more distributed over the length of the field. SA's are primarily within his own end, 244 infact. Which implies that once SEA crosse dthe 50, they leaned more on their passing game, which we know is not the same as last year. And in SD, it's likely their passing game is improved.It would appear by all accounts that LT has better opportunity to improve this year than SA.

 
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My first point was that you say he had less then 40 rec for the first time, but fail to mention he had his highest ever yardage total.  Do you realize he had the most touches 376, of his career last year? ('03 = 368, '02 = 354, '01 = 353)  My point is, and I will touch on this later, it doesn't matter how a RB gets his touches/yardage (in non PPR leagues).  All that matters is his final yardage and TD's.  Are you saying SA will have more then 376 touches this year, resulting in more yardage?  If so, that would be his second career year in a row.
I think SA's touches will remain about the same. The only reason I brought this up in the 1st place is because you and other tried to use the lack of rec as a negitive against SA. You have just proved for me how that was false though. Thank you.
The fact that you keep refering to where each has finished at the end of each year, "Funny, both have averaged a RB #4 finish those 4 years", is a total joke.  Dude, what matters is their POINTS SCORED, not where they finish.  A 4th place finish in 2004, will not always equal the same point total as a 4th place finish in another year.  Does your league give fantasy points based on what place a player finishes in?  Did you read my post on the average number of points each has scored over the last 4 years?  I guess not, because you failed to reference that in your response.
LOL, you brought it up, not me. I don't know what kind of leagues you play in, but where the player finishes vs his peers IS WHAT MATTERS! What do I care if LT or SA scored 1000 points if there were 4 other RBs that scored 1200? Simply scoring a lot of points means nothing if others are still scoring more. I love how we continually hear that LT has more upside than SA. Well, I guess thats right in some strange way. I mean how much more up can you get than being the 1RB in fantasy football, a feet LT has yet to accomplish. As for your points comparison, yes it is slightly in favor of LT. Umm, OK, what difference does that make if you see changes that can prevent LT from hitting them again (as I happen to) and you don't see those same changes for SA?
This one is good.  I know LT has out produced SA because of total yardage (rushing & rec), not just rushing.  But all the points count right?  That's why he is better.  Gates my hurt LT in receiving, but don't you think that also opens things up in the rushing department?  More weapons = less focus on LT.  Once again, do you think that the injury had anything to do with the 4 year low in receptions?  Receiving yardage is the same as rushing yardage right?
No, I don't think the injury had much to do with it. I think that Gates was the major factor and he is not going away. Do you not find it odd that LT caught less passes yet his YPR went up? It's rather clear the injury was not keeping him form being effective in the passing game, but there were now 2 options to split those passes between. The bottom line is that this team now has 2 go to players and not just LT. It just so happens that the other threat stands to dip into the very numbers that pushed LT over the top, his rec numbers. Does this concern me, YES. I understand that LT was hurt last year, but you act as though we are to assume that had he not been hurt he would have seen his career high YPA. Here are LT's YPA over the years, you tell me which stands out the most: 3.6, 4.5, 5.3, 3.9. Sorry if I don't jump all over that 5+ and assume it is the norm. Do I thik LT could have been more effective fully healhty, yes of course but his 4 years have left us with less than conclusive results and have actually jumped all over the board.
Yes, I know LT had 100/725/4 in 2003, and no I don't think he will repeat those numbers.  Like above you fail at all to recognize that LT played through injury last year, and that may have contributed to his decline in numbers all around.  He could easily post 65/450/2 this year.  Like above a better overall team, compared to the one in 2003, means less focusing on LT.  That only helps him.
No, it will mean less touches for LT IMO. That is why I showed the numbers for effectivness per touch in regards to scoring. SA looks to remain stable in that department to me, LT looks to decrease. If you balance out the touches, SA excells more.
SEA says they will run more, I haven't heard that before.  Plus SEA has had one of the best O-Lines in the league for a few years now.  How much better will they get?  Do you know how many touches SA will get this year?  No one can predict that, for any player.  The facts are the facts, LT has out scored SA over the last 4 years.  The only result of LT getting fewer touches this year, is his TD/touch ratio will go up.  That sould make him move up your draft board, right?  You didn't say how you liked Bettis with his ratio.
Yeah, you have heard Sea say that they would run more... last year. Guess what they DID and so DID SA as you helped me to show earlier in your own post! On top of that, the more SA runs, the more effective he seems to get: 295 carries->4.0, 309 carries->4.3, 326 carries->4.4, 353->4.8. The facts are that over the last 4 years, SA has outscored LT 2 times and LT outscored SA 2 times. So SA was more valuable than LT in half those years and LT more vauable than SA in half those years. How do you know that LT getting less touches will net him more effectivness? I have already shown you how abnormal the number of touches LT received in the redzone was. What leads you to believe that SD will put him that such a pleasent position again? How do you now that it is the norm for LT run at 5+ yds a pop when he has only done it 1 of 4 years? I'm not even going to entertain the thought of comparing Bettis to either of these backs, sorry.
Alright, SD was a better team last year, but SEA will be better this year???  With the way the NFL is these days, I'm glad you have a clear vision on how teams will perform in the upcoming season.  Break down redzone touches all you want, you can't get away from how each player has performed over the last 4 years.  I don't care how they get their points, that fact of the matter is, LT gets more on average over the last 4 years.  LT was good when SD was bad, and he was good when they were good.  It doesn't matter for him because he will be involved if they are running out a lead, or trying to play catch-up.
Of course I have feelings on the teams, I'm sure you do too. If you don't agree with my feeling on SD, so be it. I see this as team in transistion still and a few years away. I think they played great and inspired football last year but over their heads. Could I be wrong, yes, but it still effects how I see them and the ops I seem them being able to provide LT in contrast to SA (2 RBs that are well ahead of their peers IMO). The fact is, things are CHANGING in SD while they are still very much the same in Sea. More weapons led to less involvment for LT last year based on his touches. SA still has that stud Oline, with added depth and has PROVEN he can be a top RB with other options in the same O as him. LT has not, he has always been the one and only option.All you do is try to come up with reasons why LT will not produce as he has in the past. Less involvement in the passing game, less redzone touches, yada, yada, yada... The way you talk the guy is 2nd rounder.

And for the last time:

LT's average over the last 3 years, one in which he played hurt, is still higher then SA's best season ever (19.81 to 19.16).  Do you see that?  Tell me how he gets yardage, how many redzone touches he gets, how good/bad his team is, what his shoe size is, it all really doesn't matter.  19.81/gm (AVG) vs. 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), thats what matters.  LT  19.81/gm to SA  17.69/gm, over the last 3 years, thats what matters.  Add in that neither team has had such a drastic change, that would completely alter what they have been doing, and the trend will continue.
If this is really what you think then you should be argueing for Holmes/LJ, NOT LT.
Why would I want to take a RB who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's average over his last three seasons?
This is adressed in the above info.
What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
As I have said thoughout the post, I see that "average" coming down for LT.This is fun. :thumbup: :popcorn:
I'm going to make a few last points, and probably be done with this, because to be honest, it is going nowwhere.I don't care how many catches and rushes SA has had in any year, the fact of the matter is he has never had more then 1866 total yards, in a given year. Catch it, run it or what ever. The lack of rec, if it continues is a negative, because even if he rushes for more yards, he will lose it in rec yards.

I brought up where each player ranked in a given year??? If I did I apoligize, and please show me this, it was a mistake. I never use this type of scoring system, ever, so I would not know the ranking of any player, any year, using it. Yes it matters how a player finishes in a given year, but to not also reference how many points they, and the players around them scored is a joke. SA out scored LT in LT's rookie year, and by 0.12pt/gm last year, when LT played through an injury, and was pulled a lot because of it. You fail to address this. You are just stuck on saying, Hey, it's 2 to 2, it's 2 to 2. Really, last year was a tie, unless LT cost you a game by .12pts, and in 2001 he was a rookie. Show me SA's rookie stats, and who out scored who then. LT crushed SA in 2002 & 2003, doesn't that hold any weight for you? Being the #1 back in a year where LT played through any injury and Holmes played in 8 games, is no big deal. Especially when that point total would of only been LT's 3rd best season. IF LT was healthy, he would have out scored SA on a per game basis. To not see that is really a joke. LT maybe has not finished #1, but HE SCORES MORE POINTS. Yes, LT has more upside, look at the numbers. He has produced 2370/17 = 339pts, to SA's best of 1866/20 = 306.6.

OK, the injury did NOT have much to do with LT's production last year. Oh my god, you have to be the only one in the world who would say that. He was sub'd for by Chatman, far more then he would have been if healthy. You tell me that a healthy groin, and more carries/rec would not have allowed LT to make up 0.12pts/gm on SA. The fact that you said it does not have much affect, pretty much makes everything else you say meaningless. It is clear, you only factor in what you want to, and discount very important things that really do matter. Facts are more important then your opinions of what "will" happen. The fact is the guy was hurt, period, and still hung with SA game for game. Gates was there last year, and a gimpy LT was on pace for 362 carries and 57 rec. Yes LT's yd/rec went up, and his yd/rush went down. The fact that his yd/rec went up, does not say he was not affected by the groin injury. If that's the case, I'll counter you with, Being his yd/rush went down from 5.3 to 3.9, the injury did have a big affect. Wow, that was easy. I'm not saying LT would have had a career high in yd/rush last year, but it would of been better then 3.9. You fail to address that LT's two down years were one, his rookie year on a very bad team, and another when he was hobbled. To you this does not matter, right? Sorry, to me those two things factor into the numbers. If you don't see that, you are just plain wrong, sorry. Take off the LT hater glasses.

Touches, you talk'n about touches??? You say he will get less this year because of Gates. LT was on pace for 418 touches last year, before sitting out the last game. That would of been his 2nd highest total ever (2001 = 398, 2002 = 451, 2003 = 413), and THAT WAS WITH GATES. He is a lock for 400+ touches, no matter who is on his team. Explain to me how this is wrong, please.

I know SA had a career high in touches last year. That is my point. How much higher do you think he will go, if they RUN MORE? Then you touch on the 2 to 2 thing again. I just can't get over how you think their points scored per year & per game, here does not matter. 2 to 2, 2 to 2... One was a rookie year for LT, the other he played hurt. Both do matter, and should be taken into consideration. I can't talk about this 2 to 2 stuff anymore. I never said 5+ yd/rush was the norm, but I know 3.9 isn't the norm either. And for the last time, I don't care how effective he is, where or how he gets touches, the facts are that he has easily out scored SA pts/gm, over the last 3 seasons. Only you are able to tell us all how each players touches will change this year. You take that special talent and run with it, I will stick to the facts, and what each has done in the past.

SD could go 0 - 16 or 16 - 0. Either way LT will get 400+ touches, something SA HAS NEVER DONE. LT's losest ever, 398 touches in his rookie year, is still 22 more touches then SA's best year. Like I said, he was on pace for 418 touches last year, WITH GATES. Now tell me again why this is going down this year.

Bringing in Holmes/LJ is a nice touch. Try finding a quote by me that says LT has had, or will have a higher pt/gm average then Holmes, or Holmes/LJ last year. You ain't going to find it my man. The title of the thread is, Why LT2 over Shaun A at 1.01. That is what I am discussing, and proving for that matter. No where does it mention LT/Holmes, so I won't go there. Nice try though.

Not a great job with the questions.

I'm not trying to be an a##, but your points have not made me budge even a fraction on my stance. Actually, they have done the opposite. You may say the same, but all you are using to argue your point is half observed past stats, and unknown future production. Fantasy football is not about what you read, or look at, it's what you do with, and take from that information. We could look at the same stats, or read the same article, but we would take away totally different information and ideas from that information. That's just the was this stuff is. You just do not take the entire picture into account. You pick and chose what is important, while dismissing some very important things. You keep saying it's 2 to 2, but don't use any other factors for each year. You say LT's touches will go down, yet he was on pace for 418 last year, with the same team. When you fail to learn from what has happened in the past, and try to overanalyze what will happen in the future, you will get burnt. 2 to 2 doesn't matter as much as the most glaring and important fact: LT = 19.81/gm (AVG-last 3 yrs) vs. SA = 19.16/gm (BEST YEAR EVER), LT 19.81/gm to SA 17.69/gm, over the last 3 years. Period. That's over 2pts/gm better, over the last 3 years. LT's average is better then SA's best season ever. Your look into the future, must convince me that SA is going to make up a 2.12 pt/gm disadvantage over the last 3 years, this season. Good luck.

Lasty I'll throw out some projections. Keeping in mind I change them all the time, and really have not sat done to do my finals for the year.

PLEASE do the same.

LT:

rush = 350/1580/16

rec = 60/450/2

total = 65/2030/18 = 311

SA:

rush = 340/1565/17

rec = 28/210/2

total = 28/1775/19 = 291.5

Like I said, these are not set in stone, and probably will/have chaged over the off-season.

Edited to add: I really think LT is primed to have a huge year, but I don't want to go overboard. Those numbers are what I think he will get, without much trouble, while SA's numbers are on the higher side.

 
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Just wanted to add, for arguments sake, that in the three years prior to last, SA's YPC averaged 4.2. Even if he gets 353 carries again, but regresses to his average, he'll only have 1483 yards, down 200+ from last season.
Please stop twisting the numbers to make LT look better. By taking the 3 years prior to last, you completly discount SA's best season ever. We have a very valid 4 year window to compare both players on, why don't we stick to that. Over those 4 years, SA has a YPA of 4.4, LT 4.3.
Now LT's average in the prior three years is 4.5, and after 2004 he DID regress toward the mean, from 5.3 to 3.9. Likely he's still going to be over 4 this tear. His attempts last seaosn were close to his average already, unlike SAs which were higher than ever.
It's funny, because SA's touches have steadily increased every year yet LT supporters seem to want to punish him for this. 353, 354, 368, 376.
Anyway, all of LTs TDs came from within the 20, fifteen came from within the 10.
So can you see why reduced chances from inside the 20 would hurt him then?
It would appear by all accounts that LT has better opportunity to improve this year than SA.
Funny, I still don't see that at all. I see a team that put LT in a position last year that if far from likely again. That positions was 85 carries in the redzone. That is not just abnormal for LT and SD, LT normally hoovers around 50, but was a 3 year league high! You want to talk about regression to the mean.... well here it is right in front of you with these redzone touches. Here are LT's rushes inside the redzone over the last 3 years: 55, 51, 85. Contrast that with SA: 55, 63, 52. Add this with the fact that I see LT's role becoming reduced in the passing game due to Gates and I simply can not place LT ahead of SA.
Typically players statistics follow a regression to the mean, meaning SAs numbers are likely to be LESS than last years, LTs are likely to be GREATER.
Very curious to see how you twist LT's and SD's redzone numbers in regards to your regression to the mean. ;) Why is it that none of you have addressed this yet BTW?
I do think Gates affects LTs opportunities in the passing game, but as you noted his YPA went up, meaning it also helps him make more of his opportunities. I don't think you can completely discount his injury, unless you are looking to be totally biased, which it seems you are.
I have not discounted his injury, I just don't think you or I or anyone else can come up with a conclusive verdict on how much it really effected him. You and others seem like you will only be content if I come out and say "well yeah, LT was hurt and if he wasn't then there is no way he would have not finished #1 last year." Well hell, Holmes for president then!
Additionally, how many times did SA drive the team down the field to score. It seems they got into the 20s with passing, and SA scored from short. Without a good passing game, those opportunities will decline.
Incorrect. SD as a team ran 187 plays inside the 20 last year, 85 of which were runs to LT, thats 45% to LT. At the same time though, SD ran 784 plays from their 1 to the 21, LT touched the ball on 302, 38% of them. Sea on the other hand ran 144 plays in the redzone last year, 52 runs to SA, only 36%. Yet he still scored more with LESS! Sea ran 855 plays from their 1 to the 21, 316 to SA, 37%. So who benifited from this more last year? It's clear it was LT, not SA.
I'd wager SA gets less than 20 TDs this year, I haven't followed this thread all the way, but it seems the premise is that SA is better because he finished better last year.
Again, incorrect, the premis of this thread is that LT is viewed by most people as being a "no brainer" #1 overall pick, head and shoulders above the competition. That assertation is simply false though. On top of that, it is not that SA beat LT last year, SA has beaten him 2 of the last 4 years and it's still not about that either. It's about the fact that I see changes in SD to reduce LT's fantasy porductivity in contrast to that of SA. I think I have explained those reasons.
 
This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:SA: 1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy pointsLT: 2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy pointsI'll try to get to your points later.

 
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Just wanted to add, for arguments sake, that in the three years prior to last, SA's YPC averaged 4.2. Even if he gets 353 carries again, but regresses to his average, he'll only have 1483 yards, down 200+ from last season.
Please stop twisting the numbers to make LT look better. By taking the 3 years prior to last, you completly discount SA's best season ever. We have a very valid 4 year window to compare both players on, why don't we stick to that. Over those 4 years, SA has a YPA of 4.4, LT 4.3.
Now LT's average in the prior three years is 4.5, and after 2004 he DID regress toward the mean, from 5.3 to 3.9. Likely he's still going to be over 4 this tear. His attempts last seaosn were close to his average already, unlike SAs which were higher than ever.
It's funny, because SA's touches have steadily increased every year yet LT supporters seem to want to punish him for this. 353, 354, 368, 376.
Anyway, all of LTs TDs came from within the 20, fifteen came from within the 10.
So can you see why reduced chances from inside the 20 would hurt him then?
It would appear by all accounts that LT has better opportunity to improve this year than SA.
Funny, I still don't see that at all. I see a team that put LT in a position last year that if far from likely again. That positions was 85 carries in the redzone. That is not just abnormal for LT and SD, LT normally hoovers around 50, but was a 3 year league high! You want to talk about regression to the mean.... well here it is right in front of you with these redzone touches. Here are LT's rushes inside the redzone over the last 3 years: 55, 51, 85. Contrast that with SA: 55, 63, 52. Add this with the fact that I see LT's role becoming reduced in the passing game due to Gates and I simply can not place LT ahead of SA.
Typically players statistics follow a regression to the mean, meaning SAs numbers are likely to be LESS than last years, LTs are likely to be GREATER.
Very curious to see how you twist LT's and SD's redzone numbers in regards to your regression to the mean. ;) Why is it that none of you have addressed this yet BTW?
I do think Gates affects LTs opportunities in the passing game, but as you noted his YPA went up, meaning it also helps him make more of his opportunities. I don't think you can completely discount his injury, unless you are looking to be totally biased, which it seems you are.
I have not discounted his injury, I just don't think you or I or anyone else can come up with a conclusive verdict on how much it really effected him. You and others seem like you will only be content if I come out and say "well yeah, LT was hurt and if he wasn't then there is no way he would have not finished #1 last year." Well hell, Holmes for president then!
Additionally, how many times did SA drive the team down the field to score. It seems they got into the 20s with passing, and SA scored from short. Without a good passing game, those opportunities will decline.
Incorrect. SD as a team ran 187 plays inside the 20 last year, 85 of which were runs to LT, thats 45% to LT. At the same time though, SD ran 784 plays from their 1 to the 21, LT touched the ball on 302, 38% of them. Sea on the other hand ran 144 plays in the redzone last year, 52 runs to SA, only 36%. Yet he still scored more with LESS! Sea ran 855 plays from their 1 to the 21, 316 to SA, 37%. So who benifited from this more last year? It's clear it was LT, not SA.
I'd wager SA gets less than 20 TDs this year, I haven't followed this thread all the way, but it seems the premise is that SA is better because he finished better last year.
Again, incorrect, the premis of this thread is that LT is viewed by most people as being a "no brainer" #1 overall pick, head and shoulders above the competition. That assertation is simply false though. On top of that, it is not that SA beat LT last year, SA has beaten him 2 of the last 4 years and it's still not about that either. It's about the fact that I see changes in SD to reduce LT's fantasy porductivity in contrast to that of SA. I think I have explained those reasons.
:goodposting: Wow. Jurb, you have really thought this through and have some great points here. I have also wondered why LT is such a strong consensus #1 and am glad that someone else shares these concerns.

 
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Both are great backs but I will go with the best back in NFL. LT was clearly hampered by the groin injury last year and still set an NFL record for consecutive TD's. It doesn't matter if the Bolts get better, get worse, stay the same, Marty knows that his best chance to win is to get the ball into LT's hands as many times as he can. He's done it throughout his career to date and there's nothing to indicate that it will change.

 
This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:

SA: 1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy points

LT: 2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy points

I'll try to get to your points later.
This is really pretty simple. Jurb expects another career type year from Alexander (highest total yards he has ever had and 2nd most TDs he has ever had)On the flip side he expects LT to have a year which is about the mean of all his prior years, the total yards would (if this were correct) have 2 years he did better and 2 years he did worse, the TDs would be the same.

If that is the expectation then Alexander is the correct pick.

 
This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:

SA: 1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy points

LT: 2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy points

I'll try to get to your points later.
This is really pretty simple. Jurb expects another career type year from Alexander (highest total yards he has ever had and 2nd most TDs he has ever had)On the flip side he expects LT to have a year which is about the mean of all his prior years, the total yards would (if this were correct) have 2 years he did better and 2 years he did worse, the TDs would be the same.

If that is the expectation then Alexander is the correct pick.
Yup pretty much. I have seen nothing to suggest that the trend of SA getting more touches will not continue and lets face it, it is not like they have been increasing by unreasonable amounts. BTW I have him projected for 350 carries and 35 rec, 385 total. I think that is very in line with what we have seen from his career thus far. It's only 9 more from last year and still a fair amount below the 400 mark. I see no reason for his effectivness to be reduced in the SA O which I think is 2nd to only that of KC's in regards to giving RB's the opportunity for fantasy success. I do however see such reasons for LT. LT given his superior ability (my opinion) may still surprise me and out do SA, but I'll be taking SA as of now.I should add that I recently UPgraded LT's stats, so in reality he has closed the gap a bit.

 
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This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:

SA: 1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy points

LT: 2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy points

I'll try to get to your points later.
jurb26,As I said before I think this will be winding down, as we seem to just not agree, and that is fine. Plus, I have to start focusing on my upcoming drafts, and all this typing is cutting into my time.

But, I am shocked you have supported such a strong stance, and put in all this time, and you only see SA as 3.5 points better then LT, this year. If your argument is LT is not way ahead of SA, that is fine, I agree. But, if your point is SA will be better this year, you are cutting it a little close with that projection. But I guess 3.5 pts is 3.5 pts, and if that is what you believe, then you would take him ahead of LT. The title of your thread should read "LT is not the obvious choice over SA, as many say he is."

I know my projections only have LT scoring 19.5 pts more then SA, but at least that is over 1 pt/gm. Anyway, like I said I do think LT could easily do better then my current projections, i was just being safe.

 
Just wanted to add, for arguments sake, that in the three years prior to last, SA's YPC averaged 4.2. Even if he gets 353 carries again, but regresses to his average, he'll only have 1483 yards, down 200+ from last season.
Please stop twisting the numbers to make LT look better. By taking the 3 years prior to last, you completly discount SA's best season ever. We have a very valid 4 year window to compare both players on, why don't we stick to that. Over those 4 years, SA has a YPA of 4.4, LT 4.3.
I included the three years prior to last, they were the only three LT played, mi's hard to math apples to apples if you want to include more years for SA. No twisting there, just mathcing up year for year.

Now LT's average in the prior three years is 4.5, and after 2004 he DID regress toward the mean, from 5.3 to 3.9. Likely he's still going to be over 4 this tear. His attempts last seaosn were close to his average already, unlike SAs which were higher than ever.
It's funny, because SA's touches have steadily increased every year yet LT supporters seem to want to punish him for this. 353, 354, 368, 376.
353 to 354 is not enough of an increase to be used for any argument. In fact, the graph of those carries would inply that SA may repeat or decline in caries this season, not increase again.

Anyway, all of LTs TDs came from within the 20, fifteen came from within the 10.
So can you see why reduced chances from inside the 20 would hurt him then?
Yes, from a narrow perspecive, but the indication from other previous years is that LT will do more with his chances inside the 20, since his conversion to TD last year was his worst ever inside the 20.

It would appear by all accounts that LT has better opportunity to improve this year than SA.
Funny, I still don't see that at all. I see a team that put LT in a position last year that if far from likely again. That positions was 85 carries in the redzone. That is not just abnormal for LT and SD, LT normally hoovers around 50, but was a 3 year league high! You want to talk about regression to the mean.... well here it is right in front of you with these redzone touches. Here are LT's rushes inside the redzone over the last 3 years: 55, 51, 85. Contrast that with SA: 55, 63, 52. Add this with the fact that I see LT's role becoming reduced in the passing game due to Gates and I simply can not place LT ahead of SA.
As for redzone touches, there you go, 55, and 51, and how many TDs? 14 and 13. Then 85 chances netted him 17. In other words, LT scored more often with fewer chances in the red zone. If his chances regress toward the mean in both instances, he still has a solid chance, a very reasonable chance, at 15-16.

Why do you think LT will be even less used in the passing game? Gates emerged last year, it's not like this is a new thing... in fact it's likely LT gets more into the passing game this year as Gates will likely see more attention.

Typically players statistics follow a regression to the mean, meaning SAs numbers are likely to be LESS than last years, LTs are likely to be GREATER.
Very curious to see how you twist LT's and SD's redzone numbers in regards to your regression to the mean. ;) Why is it that none of you have addressed this yet BTW?
It is addresssed. Likely LT will see a mild decline, maybe 1 or 2. But regression to the mean indicates SA too would be around 15-16.

I do think Gates affects LTs opportunities in the passing game, but as you noted his YPA went up, meaning it also helps him make more of his opportunities. I don't think you can completely discount his injury, unless you are looking to be totally biased, which it seems you are.
I have not discounted his injury, I just don't think you or I or anyone else can come up with a conclusive verdict on how much it really effected him. You and others seem like you will only be content if I come out and say "well yeah, LT was hurt and if he wasn't then there is no way he would have not finished #1 last year." Well hell, Holmes for president then!
I'm not sure where Holmes fits in. Looks like you are trying to change the subject. I'm just no sure how you can say his injury didn't affect him at all... just prorate how much he sat out, then calculate the numbers.... it affected him.

Additionally, how many times did SA drive the team down the field to score. It seems they got into the 20s with passing, and SA scored from short. Without a good passing game, those opportunities will decline.
Incorrect. SD as a team ran 187 plays inside the 20 last year, 85 of which were runs to LT, thats 45% to LT. At the same time though, SD ran 784 plays from their 1 to the 21, LT touched the ball on 302, 38% of them. Sea on the other hand ran 144 plays in the redzone last year, 52 runs to SA, only 36%. Yet he still scored more with LESS! Sea ran 855 plays from their 1 to the 21, 316 to SA, 37%. So who benifited from this more last year? It's clear it was LT, not SA.
Nice way to twist the numbers. Answer again the first question. Which player was more involved in driving the team INTO scoring range? LT. Which team depended more on their passing game to get them into scoring position? SEA. Which team lost a big component of their passing game? SEA. Which player then is likely to see less opportunitie this yea in the red zone? SA.

I'd wager SA gets less than 20 TDs this year, I haven't followed this thread all the way, but it seems the premise is that SA is better because he finished better last year.
Again, incorrect, the premis of this thread is that LT is viewed by most people as being a "no brainer" #1 overall pick, head and shoulders above the competition. That assertation is simply false though. On top of that, it is not that SA beat LT last year, SA has beaten him 2 of the last 4 years and it's still not about that either. It's about the fact that I see changes in SD to reduce LT's fantasy porductivity in contrast to that of SA. I think I have explained those reasons.
Well, because YOU disagree, does not mean that LT is NOT viewed by most people as being a "no brainer" #1 overall pick, head and shoulders above the competition.

Most people seem to think so. I'd agree with them.

 
This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:

SA: 1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy points

LT: 2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy points

I'll try to get to your points later.
jurb26,As I said before I think this will be winding down, as we seem to just not agree, and that is fine. Plus, I have to start focusing on my upcoming drafts, and all this typing is cutting into my time.

But, I am shocked you have supported such a strong stance, and put in all this time, and you only see SA as 3.5 points better then LT, this year. If your argument is LT is not way ahead of SA, that is fine, I agree. But, if your point is SA will be better this year, you are cutting it a little close with that projection. But I guess 3.5 pts is 3.5 pts, and if that is what you believe, then you would take him ahead of LT. The title of your thread should read "LT is not the obvious choice over SA, as many say he is."

I know my projections only have LT scoring 19.5 pts more then SA, but at least that is over 1 pt/gm. Anyway, like I said I do think LT could easily do better then my current projections, i was just being safe.
2 things:1. This is not my thread.

2. I never tried to argue that SA was head and shoulders over LT, actaully, others where trying to say just the opposite and have ALL OFF-SEASON LONG. You and a heavy crowd like LT more, I like SA more. That does not bother me in the least and actually is something I will use to play in may favor. I have aquired the 2nd pick in my current redraft and done so for that very purpose, to get SA as I watch the guy ahead of me take LT. Would I be bumbed if he took SA instead, egh, maybe a little. But as you can see the oint differential is not enough for me to loose sleep over. Actually I would be most upset if the guy ahead of me took Manning becuase now I have to leave one of SA or LT there for the #3 guy. :hot: At anyrate, the reason I have spent so much time and effort in researching thiss is because of the rediculous notion that LT is head and shoulders above the competition that we read in every mag and web site know to man. It struck me as very starange at 1st sight and prompted me to see if it was true. I feel it is absloutly false. Do I care if people rank LT #1, no. There are very valid reasons to do so. The fact is though, he does not stand out like a Faulk type player.

 
This is getting exhausting, here are my projections:

SA:  1870 total yds, 19 TDs, 301 fantasy points

LT:  2015 total yds, 16 TDs, 297.5 fantasy points

I'll try to get to your points later.
jurb26,As I said before I think this will be winding down, as we seem to just not agree, and that is fine. Plus, I have to start focusing on my upcoming drafts, and all this typing is cutting into my time.

But, I am shocked you have supported such a strong stance, and put in all this time, and you only see SA as 3.5 points better then LT, this year. If your argument is LT is not way ahead of SA, that is fine, I agree. But, if your point is SA will be better this year, you are cutting it a little close with that projection. But I guess 3.5 pts is 3.5 pts, and if that is what you believe, then you would take him ahead of LT. The title of your thread should read "LT is not the obvious choice over SA, as many say he is."

I know my projections only have LT scoring 19.5 pts more then SA, but at least that is over 1 pt/gm. Anyway, like I said I do think LT could easily do better then my current projections, i was just being safe.
2 things:1. This is not my thread.
Yes I did know that, my wording was just a little off. I did not intend to state this was "your" thread, as if you started it.
 
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
Look forward to seeing this. I am so tired of the LT walks on water perception around here and in FF in general. He is not of the caliber of Faulk or Holmes and SA is getting very little respect because of bad PR last year IMO.
How can you say that considering what he has done on a terrible football team until last year? SA is a good RB but he has nowhere near the intangibles of LT - dedication to the game, will to win, teamwork, and willingness to play through injuries. Take SA if you want and you'll probably be fine, but I'll take my chances with LT.
Sorry, I missed this earlier. This is fantasy football, not ProBowl voting. Care to tell me how many times LT has finished as the #1 RB or #1 overall fantasy palyer and what the point differential was between him and the next guy? Then compare that with Faulk and Holmes. If the answer does not JUMP out at you, I don't know what else to say.
 
In the upcoming Alexander Spotlight, I detail that Alexander, not LT2, should be the #1 pick in non-PPR leagues.

Colin
Look forward to seeing this. I am so tired of the LT walks on water perception around here and in FF in general. He is not of the caliber of Faulk or Holmes and SA is getting very little respect because of bad PR last year IMO.
How can you say that considering what he has done on a terrible football team until last year? SA is a good RB but he has nowhere near the intangibles of LT - dedication to the game, will to win, teamwork, and willingness to play through injuries. Take SA if you want and you'll probably be fine, but I'll take my chances with LT.
Sorry, I missed this earlier. This is fantasy football, not ProBowl voting. Care to tell me how many times LT has finished as the #1 RB or #1 overall fantasy palyer and what the point differential was between him and the next guy? Then compare that with Faulk and Holmes. If the answer does not JUMP out at you, I don't know what else to say.
The best Faulk did in his first 4 years in the NFL was 4th and Holmes 15th. Faulk didn't rank in the top 3 until he was 25 and Holmes when he was 28. LT has been a dominating player from the beginning of his career and is only 26 this year. There were a lot of reasons beyond ability that have kept LT from being the top FF player. He played on a terrible team with no OL until last year and he played injured for half of 2004, usually being taken out in the 3rd quarter after he had willed the team to a lead. LT has not had the luxury of being on a dominating offense as did Faulk and Priest.

It's unfair to compare guys that are just about done with their career to a guy just hitting his prime. I'm taking nothing away from Faulk or Priest - from 2000-2003 they put up some of the most greatest RB performances in history. However, LT's 2003 season was up there with Priest and nearly identical to Ahman Green's career year.

 

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