My spotlight piece is $$$ content, but I'd be interested in hearing if people agree/disagree with the logic I pose.
Colin
Not to give away too much info, for the non-paying members, but I'll pick out a few things from the spotlight:You take an average of the last two years which is fine, but do not at all consider, or factory in that LT was hampered by a lingering injury last year. I think it has to be taken into consideration and mentioned. I know he still had a lot of touches, but he would have had more, and may have been more productive if 100%. Even with this, he has averaged more pts/gm then SA.
Also, you point out that LT has averaged 96.13 rush, 37.61 rec, 1.1 TD / game. SA averaged 97.84 rush, 14.53 rec, 1.125 TD / game. Then you say "Numerically, Tomlinson is a better bet in terms of receiving numbers, but most every other category is in Alexander’s favor, albeit slightly." Slightly should be highlighted here. SA has outdone LT by only 1.71yd/gm and 0.025TD/gm. That is only 0.321 pts/gm when factoring in rush yards and TD's only. But because LT's advantage in the rec yards is so great, by the numbers you posted he has outscored SA on average per game 19.974 to 17.987. That's a hair under 2 points per game.
SA may be in a more consistent offense, when looking at both over the past few years, but LT had his best seasons when San Diego was at their worst. So I see no reason or situation that would keep LT from getting his #'s, barring injury.
I agree both are great picks, and SA has been as consistent as the sun coming up every morning. Both will get you a ton of points, but I just think LT is the better choice. It comes down to a statement/question I have posted several other times in this thread:
Why would I want to take a RB (SA) who has to improve on his best season ever, to match another RB's (LT's) average over his last three seasons? What is more likely to happen, SA will have another "CAREER YEAR" this year, or LT will have an "AVERAGE YEAR", this year?
Earlier in this thread I spent WAY too much time debating this topic, and if anyone wants to see where I stand, and why I feel LT is the better pick, please go back and read up. I have too much work to do before my big $$$$$ draft on 9/3, to go back and forth on this again.