timschochet
Footballguy
What? I’m using the same data you are. I think your interpretation of it is skewed and wrong.
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Why the Democrats are in trouble (for 2022 and perhaps beyond that) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter timschochet
- Start date
BladeRunner
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
Dems are F’d in 2022 and I’d bet 2024 (unless Trump runs and energizes the normally apathetic to come out again). And they deserve it. The abundance of self infected wounds starting all the way back with throwing Biden into the POTUS running and ending with there inability to work together within there own party will catch up to them come election time.
These last 2 years has shown a bright light on just how dysfunctional the party is. They need to spend the next couple years on a complete tear down and rebuilt if they have any hope for a run at ‘24.
These last 2 years has shown a bright light on just how dysfunctional the party is. They need to spend the next couple years on a complete tear down and rebuilt if they have any hope for a run at ‘24.
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Nugget
Footballguy
I read this and wasn't sure what party you were referring to. It seems applicable to all of them.
timschochet
Footballguy
I disagree. 22 is likely to be bad for Democrats but I don’t think it’s because of any fundamental problem with the party. I think it’s because despite good efforts by Biden, the pandemic still hasn’t gone away and now we have inflation. I don’t think the party as it currently stands needs to rethink much of anything; it’s simply bad happenstance.
dkp993
Footballguy
100% does unfortunately and exactly why jo jorgensen ( who ever she is or stands for) got my vote in 2020
Rich Conway
Footballguy
2022 will likely be a R wave. The Democratic party will win 55%+ of all House votes nationwide, yet garner fewer than 50% of House seats. This won't be due to policy choices, inflation, or COVID. It will be due almost entirely to redistricting (D poor performance in 2020 local elections will bite them badly) and changes in election rules.
Nugget
Footballguy
I voted for Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2016, but wasn’t impressed with Jo. And although KS was a strong Trump state, I thought it was more important to vote for Biden.
Boston
Footballguy
IMO (and I am biased) it is only going to get dramatically worse...Biden is an ineffective leader, and at his age and state of mind it will only get worse...Kamala was given the keys to the castle and is a disaster and the party knows it...the fact she is a POC/women will make things even more messy once they kick her to the curb...as I have been saying pretty regularly the other monster issue is Pelosi is 81 and the clock is ticking on her...she is the oil that keeps the dem machine going and once she is gone it is going to create an incredible power vacuum and I fully expect the Squad and other far left elements of the party to be very adamant that it is their way or the highway and it is going to be an all-out brawl as to the direction of the party...unless a new leader/personality emerges (and it is absolutely not Mayor Pete) I think there's going to be a ton of dysfunction in the party.
rustycolts
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
BladeRunner
Footballguy
What if like only one foot is out and the rest is still in the womb? Technically 99% of the baby is still in the womb. We still talking that you're okay with abortion?
15 weeks - IF WE HAVE TO HAVE ABORTION - seems about right - 9 months is straight up murder. If that were the case, I would advocate that the mother and father (if was involved) and provider be charged with 1st degree intentional homicide and the provider's business shut down.
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timschochet
Footballguy
Let me give you an example of a late term abortion: let’s suppose that at 8 and a half months, the doctor tells the mother that the baby has hydrocephalus (water in the brain) and will be born brain dead. Furthermore because the brain is enlarged, there is a 5% risk that the mother will be harmed in childbirth and either be unable to have further children, or her life might even be threatened. In such a case, would you be OK with an abortion?
What I’ve just described is not atypical of late term abortions. They aren’t performed out of convenience; there’s usually something quite serious going on.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Sometimes it seems more like four parties, than two. A light blue and a dark blue, and a light and dark red. And when the two shades get together the party is pretty strong and when they fight themselves, they lose. 2024 could see both parties in internal disarray.
If 2022 is a "red wave" but with mostly non-Trump / non-MAGA candidates, that will be catastrophic (or awesome) for them in 24.
If 2022 is a "red wave" but with mostly non-Trump / non-MAGA candidates, that will be catastrophic (or awesome) for them in 24.
quick-hands
Footballguy
supermike80
Footballguy
Man. Im telling you. Once we can finally get rid of dem dern Republicans! I mean obviously no one likes them. They only win stuff by cheating.
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NorvilleBarnes said:
That's a good point.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
timschochet said:
So your example of wanting late-term abortions is in cases where the baby is brain dead? Hydrocephalus occurs in 2 out of 1,000 pregnancies. With shunt treatment, babies who have hydrocephalus can lead normal lives.
https://www.uclahealth.org/mattel/pediatric-neurosurgery/hydrocephalus-faqs
"Children often have a full life span if hydrocephalus is caught early and treated. Infants who undergo surgical treatment to reduce the excess fluid in the brain and survive to age 1 will not have a shortened life expectancy due to hydrocephalus."
Boston
Footballguy
I fully expect crime to be a major issue as it should be...stuff like this is just so unacceptable and will have a huge effect on that all important "Soccer Mom" demographic:
https://nypost.com/2021/12/02/bank-of-america-execs-warn-junior-staffers-to-dress-down-as-nyc-crime-surges/
https://nypost.com/2021/12/02/bank-of-america-execs-warn-junior-staffers-to-dress-down-as-nyc-crime-surges/
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
It's looking like 2022 will not be good for Dems. The only thing that might save them is Roe vs. Wade. I think Republicans should do everything in their power to have the SC decision pushed past the summer of 2022. This date is almost lining up perfect for the Dems.
timschochet
Footballguy
There is nothing the Republicans can do to change the date.
But I think, from what I’ve read, that it’s now likely that the SC will uphold the Mississippi law but not overturn Roe. If that happens, it won’t be enough to alter the election IMO.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Once you remove viability from the abortion equation, you might as well overturn Roe/Casey.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
I don’t disagree. But politics is about messaging and symbolism. To truly energize suburban women to vote Democrat, you have to actually overturn Roe. (Not Casey; I suspect most people couldn’t tell you what Casey is. Everybody knows Roe vs Wade.)
timschochet
Footballguy
See my last post. Messaging.
The pro-choice activists will say to the voter, “They’ve pretty much overturned Roe!”. The voter will ask, “Pretty much? Wait did they overturn it or not?” The activists will say “well, technically no, but…” and the voter will go back to sleep.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
You really think the young voter is going to ask “Pretty much? Wait did they overturn it or not?”
I think you give voters to much credit. Something like this will move the needle. Especially with young voters.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It's a subtle difference. By allowing the Mississippi law to stand you remove viability from the equation. Now States will make laws that go from 15 weeks (Mississippi) to 10 weeks to 5 weeks essentially overturning Roe/Casey. The difference is as Tim said messaging and also, you can still get an abortion in those States regardless of the time limitations, if you overturn Roe/Casey instead of slowly moving down you just go to outright abolishment.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Five reasons the Dems are in trouble
1. Runaway inflation, even the Fed admits it is not temporary. To those who say it wii subside, I use the example of my favorite restaurant they raised their prices significantly, I asked the owner why, he said he went from paying 12 an hour to 18 an hour for help. I asked if they would ever lower the prices, he just laughed.
2. The virus situation is not getting better, not Joe’s fault, but he should not of taken a victory lap in July saying we had defeated/turned the corner. He’s in charge so the buck stops with the Dems, again maybe not his fault, but people are in a bad mood about it.
3. Two democratic senators control the party, and will not agree to any agenda except their own. They seem to enjoy telling Biden it’s their way or the highway.
4. Foreign relations are at a critical point with Russia and China. The threat of hostile action against other countries is real for both of these countries. We seem to be doing nothing about the threat.
5. immigration what a mess, I have a second home in AZ, my friends an neighbors their are so upset about the lack of control, they can’t wait to vote. Senator Kelly is in trouble, and AZ is looking awful red IMO.
1. Runaway inflation, even the Fed admits it is not temporary. To those who say it wii subside, I use the example of my favorite restaurant they raised their prices significantly, I asked the owner why, he said he went from paying 12 an hour to 18 an hour for help. I asked if they would ever lower the prices, he just laughed.
2. The virus situation is not getting better, not Joe’s fault, but he should not of taken a victory lap in July saying we had defeated/turned the corner. He’s in charge so the buck stops with the Dems, again maybe not his fault, but people are in a bad mood about it.
3. Two democratic senators control the party, and will not agree to any agenda except their own. They seem to enjoy telling Biden it’s their way or the highway.
4. Foreign relations are at a critical point with Russia and China. The threat of hostile action against other countries is real for both of these countries. We seem to be doing nothing about the threat.
5. immigration what a mess, I have a second home in AZ, my friends an neighbors their are so upset about the lack of control, they can’t wait to vote. Senator Kelly is in trouble, and AZ is looking awful red IMO.
timschochet
Footballguy
These are all good points and I agree with your overall analysis. That being said:
1. Nobody knows how inflation will be in November of next year. If it’s as bad or worse it will obviously be a huge factor. But if things improve, and they might, it won’t be a factor.
2. Same for the virus. If by next November things have improved, and they might, Biden’s premature victory dance will be largely forgotten. If things stay bad it won’t.
3. This won’t stay an issue. Build Back Better will he passed within the next few months. Nobody will be talking about Manchin and Sinema next November.
4. Yes but this likely to help Biden if it has any effect at all.
5. The folks who care most about this issue are firmly in the Republican camp already.
Zero to do with redistricting. It has to do with:
1. Parents being targeted for standing up to a radicalism being pushed under the guise of critical race theory and also attempts to push mandatory vaccines on children which have no long term test data.
2. Pushback on the assault of free speech from big tech which is in the tank for leftist agenda.
3. Abuses of the criminal justice system from local prosecutors upto the FBI and Justice Department.
4. Pandering to illegal immigrants
5. Not supporting police and not prosecuting crimes pushing crime rates through the roof.
6. An economy where people don't feel the urgency to work and labor force unwilling to fill low level jobs.
I appreciate wanting to blame this on evil practices by Republicans. But the real culprit will be a Democrat party which is out of touch with rural America. But I am happy the Democrats will blame things like redistricting and misinformation from evil right-wing sources. It means Democrat will not fix their radicalism within their party which is appalling to most Americans.
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the moops
Footballguy
Is your favorite restaurant Chipotle?
Sort of kidding, but I don't think paying 18 dollars an hour for help is outrageous. Paying 12 an hour certainly is though.
timschochet
Footballguy
I stopped reading here. You must be the only person in America, conservative or liberal, who believes this.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Agree on a fair wage, but we all will be paying more for a long time. He has a good number of part time teenage help, so they should be spending more on x box’s, etc.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Good post, GS.
Specifically on #1, a few questions:
1. you say "significantly", but how much did prices go up for him?
2. Has that bump in price negatively effected his business?
3. When we are talking about voting and Dems being in trouble, do think those big raises for people and whatever might come from BBB offset the inflation concerns as people vote?
Gopher State
Footballguy
Of course, that is how you roll. For the Senate portion, it is a joke to even mention jerrymandering as it has no impact.
For house seats Democrats completely control the redistricting process in states like New York and Illinois and have the upper hand in many other states like California, New Jersey and Michigan. Maybe the GOP nets a handful of seats overall, but we are going to see a bloodbath swing of 25 plus seats in the house and to blame that on redistricting is ridiculous.
timschochet
Footballguy
It would be ridiculous to blame it all on redistricting. It would be even more ridiculous to blame none of it on redistricting, as you just did. Of course redistricting plays a big part, not the only part but a big one. Everyone on all sides seems to get that except you.
Lol...of course Rich's hyperbole was 'almost entirely'.. I answered hyperbole with hyperbole, but you wish to dismiss me. You are so blindly one-sided in your analysis and how easily you dismiss people you disagree with. I went on and pointed out five factors, and you completely ignored. Fine, that is how you roll and why you love mainstream media.
timschochet
Footballguy
But I disagreed with Rich as well. You’ll notice that redistricting was not mentioned in my OP on this subject. But it’s silly to dismiss it.
I didn’t respond to your other 5 points because I’ve already addressed many of them. Some of them, particularly point #3, I suspect are more representative of your own personal passions than of voters in general.
Ok...stay in denial. Biden's approval numbers continue to drop. I am not seeing anything on the horizon to change that. He is pretty much holding course and dividing the country more and digging deeper. The answer is to reach out to the other side more, but instead he is dug in for battle. It is going to be complete gridlock after midterms, and that will largely be Biden's own doing.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Here in PA, wait staff get like $3 an hour plus tips. When I used to bar-back at a local night club I made $2.85 an hour plus tips. I would get bi-weekly checks for like $125 after taxes. If I made $18 and hour plus tips I would be retired by now.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Just an example of price increases. I used to by 10 chicken wings from a local pizza shop. It was normally $8.99 for 10. I tried to order last week and it was $15.99 for 10. Needless to say, I canceled the order.
Boston
Footballguy
Here is the 1,000,000-pound gorilla in the room...Biden is declining mentally and physically; it is beyond easy to see...his administration is in rough shape and part of getting it back on track will involve public speaking/speeches that give hope and also allows him to sell his policies...right now he is absolutely incapable of this, and the reality is if he were to do more of this it will hurt him more than help him...if this were Bill Clinton or Obama they could work some magic on the mic but Biden has no chance of accomplishing this...this was very obvious to see during the campaign but he was the dems best chance to beat Trump and he did...unfortunately the check is now due and it's not gonna be pretty.
the moops
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
timschochet
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