Will Ahman Green be the man? (1 Viewer)

[TWindis]

 

[David Yudkin]

In our staff league just the other night, Green went at 6.09 (12-team league). He will almost certainly be available in the third round, although I would not recommend taking him there.

 

[BigRed]

I think/hope he was joking.

He's going considerably later than the 6th in drafts I'm seeing/hearing about but those are local and not "ADP" or whatever - also on the FF Calc site he is going much later (FWIW).

 

[Mik789fl]

I just picked him up at 7.7 in a 12 team PPR redraft as my 3rd RB. I thought he was a nice value at that spot.

 

[hi1111]

got him and fred taylor , I know one of them will be a force this year and actually I'm pretty high on both. I think I nabbed Green around the 4th? Taylor fell WAY off for some reason

 

[Preds]

got him and fred taylor , I know one of them will be a force this year and actually I'm pretty high on both. I think I nabbed Green around the 4th? Taylor fell WAY off for some reason

I took Ahman at 6.04 to be my RB3 behind Lamont Jordan and Reggie Bush in my local 12 team redraft league.He's got a great schedule, and seems a good fit to the offense they're putting in place.

 

[Kleck.]

3rd? Is Green's current ADH climbing that much?

Glad I was able to get him in the 6th and 7th rounds.

 

[_4_]

The Packers are REALLY counting on Green to be the man. He has taken to the new offensive blocking schemes in practice far better than Davenport or Gado. Scouts report the offense looks completely different with Ahman in the backfield. The caveat of course is can he stay healthy? That is a huge question mark and the reason Green has to be considered a huge risk/reward pick.

As for Taylor, he too has looked great in camp and has been assured of the starting job week 1. Can he hold Greg Jones off? Only by playing well. If he starts to slide, Del Rio will not hesitate to replace him.

 

[Cixelsyd]

3rd is a bit early for him... but you know your league better then us.

Until Green hits the field, no one knows if he's still got gas left in his tank

 

[wraith5]

I took him 10.5 in a 10 team league (95th pick, 36th RB), and he went 4.03 in MBSL 2 (51st pick, 29th RB).

I think his stock is slowly rising after he survived a couple of hits and Farve didn't spend the last preseason game entirely on his back. Very high risk / reward.

 

[ratdog]

12 team redraft (snake draft) had 11th pick over all. Start 1Q, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1 DEF

Passing TD 5 points Plus 2 points for a PaTD of 30+ Yds

Passing 1 point for every 50 PaYds Plus a 3 point bonus @ 300+ PaYd

Receiving TD 6 points 1 point for every 20 ReYds Plus a 3 point bonus @ 100+ ReYd

Rushing TD 6 points 1 points for every 20 RuYds Plus a 3 point bonus @ 100+ RuYd

1. Ronnie Brown RB

2. P. Manning QB

3. R. Doughns RB

4. J. Lewis RB

5. D. Driver WR

6. T.J WR

7. A. Green RB

8. Rod Smith WR

9. M. Barber III RB

10. L. Coles WR

11. Vernon Davis TE

12. L. Tynes K

13. Miami DEF

I think you should wait

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I wouldn't take him at all,

even if he was Mr. Irrelevant.

 

[piston pete griffin]

I'd like to grab him as a #3 RB some time round about the 7th round, maybe the 6th. I'd also take him over Taylor

 

[Colin Dowling]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

 

[pantherclub]

I can see someone like A Green helping you win it all this year. If he is healthy he may be a man possessed. It is funny to think 2 years ago we were debating that he could be the #1 RB after the year was over. He is still young. I am targeting him in the 5th-6th as my 3rb and let the cards fall. He has great value in that range.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

Not discounting your thought, but care to elaborate? He's projected at less than 700 yds rushing and 5-6 TDs. Beast?or, are you saying that he could be a VERY GOOD #2 or #3 back, just not a #1.

as an side, I was thinking of trading Barlow and either Joe J. or Crumpler for him...

 

[David Yudkin]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

Since I haven'r had a good debate with C.D. in awhile, I will engage him here over A.G..My concern over Green is that other players that have had the same injury have not been successful in their return to the playing field. Many simply could not come back, and those that did have not been close to 100%.Looking at the fact that: Green's numbers already were in decline, the Packers don't have the OL they once did, there is no proven receiving threat other than Driver, and the Pack could be playing catch up all day points me down a completley different path than thinking that he will be "a beast."In looking at my paycheck, I clearly am not a doctor, but the track record for post quad surgery players has not been remotely good in terms of expecting a banner year from Green. And whoever said he was 27 is incorrect--Green is 29 and will be almost 30 when the season ends. His reception totals have dropped each and every year since 2000. In the 2000-2004 period, only Curtis Martin and Eddie George had more carries and only Martin had more touches. We're not talking about someone that had a light workload. And the Packers ranked 30th in rushing yards and 31st in ypc last year to boot.Add it all up and I just don't see anything that points to Ahman Green 2006 = Ahman Green 2004 (or any other year in the 2000-2004 era).

 

[Kleck.]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

My concern over Green is that other players that have had the same injury have not been successful in their return to the playing field. Many simply could not come back, and those that did have not been close to 100%.

How many of those "many" were Pro-Bowl talent players before the injury?I'm not entirely disagree with your argument, and I've seen it made by others before, but some of the guys I remember having a similar injury were never that good to begin with. It is likely some of them would have washed out of the NFL even without the quad injury. There are also some others, Sanatan Dotson, who came back but later suffered a knee and by that time he was past his prime for any full recovery.

 

[Warhogs]

My personal view as I would not want to have to count on him to give you anything. He has not been able to put up any good numbers for 2 full years. I believe he had a string of about 16 games before he got hurt last year in which he was unable to hit 100 yards. I believe he will be given the chance to be the man at the start of the season but I also believe someone else(probably Gado) will be the man by the end of the season.

 

[wraith5]

My concern over Green is that other players that have had the same injury have not been successful in their return to the playing field. Many simply could not come back, and those that did have not been close to 100%.

1) who are the players who have had this type of injury, and how good were they before the injury? Not being able to play the piano again only concerns me if they could play the piano pre-injury.2) Receptions have gone down every year, but they had more talent to spread the ball around on those GB teams. I don't see the talent nearly as deep now. You could argue that AG will have to stay in for protection more as a result, and you may be right, but I think he'll catch more balls.

3) We're seeing a lot of players return from serious injury now - as medicine advances, it becomes feasible to play again. This wasn't the case all that long ago.

I'm not saying AG will be Top 10, but I think he represents great value as an RB #3 with upside right now.

 

[Colin Dowling]

My predictions of his return to prominence are relative: do I think his production will make him a top-10 back? No, but I think a move in to the top-30 should be expected and a return to the top 20 wouldn't be a huge shock. The fact that he can be selected so late is very interesting, in my view.

Obviously, issue 1a is his health. AS you stated, his injury is not one with a lot of history behind it in terms of returns. Point conceeded. The flip side of that is we are seeing things done with athletes in a medical sense that, frankly, defy logic and explanation. Obviously, every injury is unique but this season has been pretty clear in terms of who has recovered from certain injuries and who has not. Brees and Culpepper hit the timelines we were told they were aiming for. Palmer is on schedule for his type of injury. There are lots of stories like this this off-season and (once again) even though every injury is unique, the fact that Ahman is getting back on the field and the news out of camp is positive speaks enough to me to proceed with caution, but proceed nonetheless.

The second issue is competition - I took the fact that gado is practicing at FB to mean that the team feels they have enough depth at TB already. I don't think they have that depth without Green factoring in to their plans.

Finally, while I realize Green has touched the ball a ton, he is a solid pass catcher and apparently has been picking up the zone-blocking run schemes very well. The first is important b/c I think Brett Favre's declining skills and McCarthy's WCO will get Green's receiving numbers up. The second is important because this scheme is responsible for some of the more ridiculous rushing performances of the last few years.

I think that 1,000 yards and 40 receptions is a reasonable prediction for a healthy Ahman Green. I am in the camp that - on limited evidence - thinks he is/will be healthy.

Colin

 

[Big Score]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

My concern over Green is that other players that have had the same injury have not been successful in their return to the playing field. Many simply could not come back, and those that did have not been close to 100%.

How many of those "many" were Pro-Bowl talent players before the injury?I'm not entirely disagree with your argument, and I've seen it made by others before, but some of the guys I remember having a similar injury were never that good to begin with. It is likely some of them would have washed out of the NFL even without the quad injury. There are also some others, Sanatan Dotson, who came back but later suffered a knee and by that time he was past his prime for any full recovery.

If the quadriceps or patellar tendon is completely ruptured, a surgeon will reattach the ends. After surgery, the patient will wear a cast for 3 to 6 weeks and use crutches.....A partial or complete tear of a tendon requires an exercise program as part of rehabilitation that is similar to but less vigorous than that prescribed for ligament injuries. The goals of exercise are to restore the ability to bend and straighten the knee and to strengthen the leg to prevent a repeat injury. A rehabilitation program may last 6 months, although the patient can return to many activities before then.

pediatrics.about.com

Most patients can return to their previous occupations, but many cannot return to their preinjury activity level.

In a large study, Konrath and associates found that 83% of patients returned to their previous occupations, 51% were unable to return to their preinjury activity levels, and 53% had persistent quadriceps strength deficits (>20% compared with the uninjured leg).

Quadriceps Tendon Rupture - PrognosisList of players with Torn Quad (don't know if this list is complete or not?)

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

My personal view as I would not want to have to count on him to give you anything. He has not been able to put up any good numbers for 2 full years. I believe he had a string of about 16 games before he got hurt last year in which he was unable to hit 100 yards. I believe he will be given the chance to be the man at the start of the season but I also believe someone else(probably Gado) will be the man by the end of the season.

Gado???? He has been used lately as a FB option for added blocking and protection for Favre and the running game. While Green may not have the Pro-Bowl year that some people think he will....do NOT o after Gado. Yes he was impressive last year and looked speedy in the training camp and pre-season, but he puts the ball on the ground way too often for the coaching staff to trust him with the duties of full time back.

Herron or Davenport are more likely to share the load when/if Green does injure himself or falter in production.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think he's going to be a beast this year, but I would wait and try to grab him in the 6th. Spending a 3rd on him negates the value in the pick.

My concern over Green is that other players that have had the same injury have not been successful in their return to the playing field. Many simply could not come back, and those that did have not been close to 100%.

How many of those "many" were Pro-Bowl talent players before the injury?I'm not entirely disagree with your argument, and I've seen it made by others before, but some of the guys I remember having a similar injury were never that good to begin with. It is likely some of them would have washed out of the NFL even without the quad injury. There are also some others, Sanatan Dotson, who came back but later suffered a knee and by that time he was past his prime for any full recovery.

If the quadriceps or patellar tendon is completely ruptured, a surgeon will reattach the ends. After surgery, the patient will wear a cast for 3 to 6 weeks and use crutches.....A partial or complete tear of a tendon requires an exercise program as part of rehabilitation that is similar to but less vigorous than that prescribed for ligament injuries. The goals of exercise are to restore the ability to bend and straighten the knee and to strengthen the leg to prevent a repeat injury. A rehabilitation program may last 6 months, although the patient can return to many activities before then.

pediatrics.about.com

Most patients can return to their previous occupations, but many cannot return to their preinjury activity level.

In a large study, Konrath and associates found that 83% of patients returned to their previous occupations, 51% were unable to return to their preinjury activity levels, and 53% had persistent quadriceps strength deficits (>20% compared with the uninjured leg).

Quadriceps Tendon Rupture - PrognosisList of players with Torn Quad (don't know if this list is complete or not?)

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

IF you assume they stopped playing because of the injury. Most of these guys could've been bagging groceries at 100% health.

 

[Moniker]

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

How good they were is a very important part of this conversation. If they weren't that good beforehand (4 out of your 7, imo) then why would a team take a risk on a player comming off an injury when they can just sign someone else?Searcy and Johnson were both pretty good in their prime, but age, also, has something to do with returning from this type of injury, I'm sure. (Don't quote me on Johnson... not exactly sure when he left the Saints).

Lastly, Mike McCoy? 1983? Are you serious??

 

[Kleck.]

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

It does matter how good they were prior to the injury. Not one of them was ever a Pro-Bowl RB.

Not many of them had the talent to stay in the league much longer.

Santana Dotson came back from his quad injury, but suffered a knee injury during the preaseason two years later that put him out for good.

I've never been one to compare injuries from different players at different talent levels, and I won't start now.

 

[diesel7982]

In our staff league just the other night, Green went at 6.09 (12-team league). He will almost certainly be available in the third round, although I would not recommend taking him there.

6th round? Is this person still on staff or was he fired on the spot?

 

[David Yudkin]

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

Not one of them was ever a Pro-Bowl RB.Not many of them had the talent to stay in the league much longer.

Santana Dotson came back from his quad injury, but suffered a knee injury during the preaseason two years later that put him out for good.

I've never been one to compare injuries from different players at different talent levels, and I won't start now.

And what about the fact that a RB will take that much more of a pounding than any of these other positions?

 

[SSOG]

I got Green in the 13th round of a 10-teamer, 43rd RB off the board, after guys like Mike Anderson, Marion Barber, Samkon Gado, and Chris Brown. He's my RB4 (I have Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson and figure whoever wins the starting job will be my RB3). It's a pretty mixed league, as far as talent and success goes, but it has some real "sharks" in there, too, some of whom drafted one of the aforementioned ahead of Green. And in fairness, it's a long online draft (still going on) that started at the beginning of August, when the outlook on Green wasn't quite as good. Still, it shows you just how far he can fall sometimes. And I have to confess, when I grabbed him, I was actually debating taking Ladell Betts, instead (Portis's injury had just broken a day or two before). Then I slapped myself for being stupid and took the guy with a higher ceiling *AND* a higher floor than Betts.

 

[Kleck.]

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

Not one of them was ever a Pro-Bowl RB.Not many of them had the talent to stay in the league much longer.

Santana Dotson came back from his quad injury, but suffered a knee injury during the preaseason two years later that put him out for good.

I've never been one to compare injuries from different players at different talent levels, and I won't start now.

And what about the fact that a RB will take that much more of a pounding than any of these other positions?

RBs get their beating, but I don't think any position takes a bigger beating than lineman.I'm not expecting Green to return to a 2004 or prior form. No one should. But to completely write him off based on injuries that happened to lesser talented players, and comparing Green's to those others as if the injury and situations were all identical is not something I am willing to do.

Remember last year when everyone was writing Stephen Davis off because of some surgery that not many recovered from or knew much about? Eric Shelton wwas even being picked well ahead of him. Davis proved many wrong, and before I pass judgement on Green because of an injury not many know about, certainly with RB, I'll wait to let him prove me right/wrong. It's not like I'm investing much. I've done much worse with late 6th and 7th round picks of heavy RB drafts and pulled off good fantasy seasons.

Please answer mine.

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

I only read the first few responses, so if I'm repeating what someone else said THEN LISTEN.

Green wasn't "the man" last year so why should he be, coming off his injury? Okay new coaching staff wants to push for the running game that will only help Favre and the defense but I don't see it working. Packers are going to be a crappy team, behind a lot so the running game will be abandoned early and often in most of their games.

 

[rascal]

got him and fred taylor , I know one of them will be a force this year and actually I'm pretty high on both. I think I nabbed Green around the 4th? Taylor fell WAY off for some reason

I took Ahman at 6.04 to be my RB3 behind Lamont Jordan and Reggie Bush in my local 12 team redraft league.He's got a great schedule, and seems a good fit to the offense they're putting in place.

To bad their o-line is probably the worst in the league.

 

[delusional]

6.12 i got him at

 

[AnonymousBob]

I only read the first few responses, so if I'm repeating what someone else said THEN LISTEN.

You don't want to take the time to read what others have posted yet you want us to put everything on hold to read what you wrote?

 

[Kleck.]

got him and fred taylor , I know one of them will be a force this year and actually I'm pretty high on both. I think I nabbed Green around the 4th? Taylor fell WAY off for some reason

I took Ahman at 6.04 to be my RB3 behind Lamont Jordan and Reggie Bush in my local 12 team redraft league.He's got a great schedule, and seems a good fit to the offense they're putting in place.

To bad their o-line is probably the worst in the league.

The oline concerns me more than the quad does, S'.

 

[David Yudkin]

SDavis is an interesting guy to bring up. He did well for fantasy purposes in that he had 12 TD. Take those away and he was pretty bad. (3.0 ypc and 5 total receptions). Carolina realized that Davis was not going to be a regular every down back and switched to Foster.

Workload wise, Davis had roughly 100 more career carries to start last year than Green has now.

As others have pointed out about the other guys with quad injuries, maybe their time was coming anyway. The same conveivably could be said about Green. Green as had a heavy workload and had already started being less productive. I'm not saying 100% that he is in the same group with the other guys returning that didn't do well, but IMO it is a realistic concern.

I really don't know what to expect from Green this year, but I'm guessing he won't get 12 TD as a goalline specialist. The past two seasons he seemed to be nicked up a fair amount, and I'm not sure how that factors into his return from his injury.

Fantasy wise, maybe you gamble on him at the right price, but I really would not go into things planning to have to use him. IMO, he's a RB 3 or 4 at best and maybe you get lucky. Some people have him pegged as their RB2 and think he's a safe bet to put up RB2 numbers, and I think that's wishful thinking at this point.

 

[Big Score]

Mike McCoy, Packers cb, 10/30/83. Never played again. Tore it again 7/23/84.

Anthony Parker, 49ers cb, 07/24/99. Played 16g in 2000, 5 in 2001 for Oakland.

He was the 99th player selected in the '99 draft.

Leon Searcy, Jaguars ol, 2000 training camp. Never played again.

Santana Dotson, Packers dt, 11/27/00. Played 16 games in 2001. that was it.

Steve Warren, Packers dt, 12/03/00. Missed all of 2001, played 12 games in 2002. That was it.

Darrell Ashmore, Raiders og, 08/06/02. Never played again.

Brett Conway, Skins k, 09/2002. Played 8 games in 2003. That was it.

Brandon Christenson, Raiders te, 1/2003 during playoff game. Never played again.

Frank Middleton, Raiders og, 10/12/03. Played 7 games in 2004. That was it.

Joe Johnson, Packers de, 08/2003. Never played again.

Bernard Holsey, Bears dt, 02/2004. Never played again.

Belton Johnson, Bengals ot, 06/24/04. Never played again.

Chad Scott, Steelers cb, 10/17/04. Missed 9 games, played season finale and 2 playoff games, but didn't start them. Played 3 games(4 tackles) in 2005 for Pats. Started 88 of 91 games in Steelers career.

Lawrence Smith, Bills ot, 08/2005. ????????

Tank Johnson, Bears dt, 03/2006. ????????

Kevin Barry, Packers og, 05/2006. ????????

That's an awful lot of players who Never played again after suffering a Torn Quad, regardless of how good they were.

It does matter how good they were prior to the injury. Not one of them was ever a Pro-Bowl RB.

Not many of them had the talent to stay in the league much longer.

Santana Dotson came back from his quad injury, but suffered a knee injury during the preaseason two years later that put him out for good.

I've never been one to compare injuries from different players at different talent levels, and I won't start now.

To my admittedly untrained eye, Santana Dotson's level of play after his return from the quad tendon tear, declined significantly from his level of play pre quad tendon tear.That along with this...

Most patients can return to their previous occupations, but many cannot return to their preinjury activity level.

In a large study, Konrath and associates found that 83% of patients returned to their previous occupations, 51% were unable to return to their preinjury activity levels, and 53% had persistent quadriceps strength deficits (>20% compared with the uninjured leg).

Quadriceps Tendon Rupture - Prognosis...is what concerns me the most with Green.

Hopefully Green proves to be the exception to the rule, but his chances of a complete & total 100% recovery, are just not that good.

Now I'm not saying that Green won't be able to come back to play at all, just that the Green we see this year, will be roughly 80% of the pre quad tendon tear Green.

Again...hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Chaos Commish]

This is a week old, but it gave me confidence to take him on the 8-9 corner.

GREEN BAY - Green Bay Packers running back Ahman Green made the next step in his recovery, practicing in pads for the first time since being injured last fall.

Green, who missed most of last season with a ruptured quadriceps, broke a couple of impressive runs early in Tuesday night's workout, and even threw a long halfback pass to receiver Calvin Russell.

"He looked fine, looked comfortable, explosive," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. "Physically, he's fine. ... He just has to get back into the groove of it, get in football shape."

Tuesday's drills did not call for live tackling, but Green still went tumbling to the ground on one running play and got back up immediately.

"That's a power play," McCarthy said. "That's the stuff he needs to do. Get in line and run your feet and everything. That's why we've got him in the team drills now."

Green even participated in a pass-rush blocking drill, perhaps the most physical drill the Packers run in training camp.

"He's fine," McCarthy said. "He has no hesitation, reservations at all. We're just trying to be smart with him."

Green likely won't play in Saturday's preseason game against Atlanta, but could return for the Aug. 28 game at Cincinnati.

Green said Monday that he and linebacker Brady Poppinga - who is poised for a remarkably quick return from a torn ACL last December - have been going "way harder" in rehab than any of their teammates have in practice.

"Taking nothing away from football practice, but when you've been out of football as long as I have and as long as Brady Poppinga has, we've got to simulate it the best we can," Green said. "That's why both of us are above expectations. Now we can just focus on football."

Packers general manager Ted Thompson said he has been impressed by what he has seen from Green so far.

"Ahman is a pretty impressive looking guy," Thompson said. "I think we all wish we looked like that. He was fine. I thought he saw the cuts pretty good. He seems to be very comfortable. I've had a couple private conversations with him. He's pretty comfortable finding the holes."

Similar stories quoted Gado and others praising Ahman for his explosion, cuts and vision. Gado admitted there was no camp battle once he saw Ahman in action. He hit the field and was immediately and obviously the best back they have. The new scheme is perfect for his running style. LenDale White and Greg Jones were the next two backs taken after I drafted Green. At the level Green is available, all the backs have serious red flags and perhaps more compelling reasons to expect minimal production. Green we know is starting.ETA: My 8-9 corner was in an IDP league and it's equivalent to the 6-7 corner in non-IDPs.

 

[Kleck.]

Hopefully Green proves to be the exception to the rule, but his chances of a complete & total 100% recovery, are just not that good. Now I'm not saying that Green won't be able to come back to play at all, just that the Green we see this year, will be roughly 80% of the pre quad tendon tear Green.

Absolutely agree on the chances he doesn't get back to 100%, and I would be happy with an 80% pre quad injury Green. I think that is a fair health % to expect from him. Sadly, an 80% Green, with the wear and tear, and age, might help this team.

 

[Traders2001]

He has to be if not they wont have a NFL RB as a starter.

 

[cr8f]

I think/hope he was joking.He's going considerably later than the 6th in drafts I'm seeing/hearing about but those are local and not "ADP" or whatever - also on the FF Calc site he is going much later (FWIW).

He is but if he does well this week(as rumored in TC) he will go higher. I'd wait until the 7th if I wanted him.

 

[Kleck.]

SDavis is an interesting guy to bring up. He did well for fantasy purposes in that he had 12 TD. Take those away and he was pretty bad. (3.0 ypc and 5 total receptions). Carolina realized that Davis was not going to be a regular every down back and switched to Foster.Workload wise, Davis had roughly 100 more career carries to start last year than Green has now. As others have pointed out about the other guys with quad injuries, maybe their time was coming anyway. The same conveivably could be said about Green. Green as had a heavy workload and had already started being less productive. I'm not saying 100% that he is in the same group with the other guys returning that didn't do well, but IMO it is a realistic concern.I really don't know what to expect from Green this year, but I'm guessing he won't get 12 TD as a goalline specialist. The past two seasons he seemed to be nicked up a fair amount, and I'm not sure how that factors into his return from his injury.Fantasy wise, maybe you gamble on him at the right price, but I really would not go into things planning to have to use him. IMO, he's a RB 3 or 4 at best and maybe you get lucky. Some people have him pegged as their RB2 and think he's a safe bet to put up RB2 numbers, and I think that's wishful thinking at this point.

TDs definitely made SDavis a decent value pick. Without them... I'm right with you. I was actually fooled by him and was one that wrote him off too soon and let him slip by in the mid and later rounds during early June drafts. I don't want to do that again, and miss out on potential value with a 3rd/4th RB. No matter how much I believe or want Green to get healthy, I wouldn't risk taking him over other healthier backs in better situations. The 6th is about where I draw the line for now. If Green Bay's Oline was in better shape, I'd consider him earlier, but that honestly scares me more than the injury. It would be nice if Green Bay had a talent like Foster ready to take over, unfortunately they don't, and they really don't have many options except to give Green every oportunity to play. I'd be more than thrilled with 900-1000 total yards and 5-6 TDs. Like others have posted, I do expect to see him more involved in the passing game, and he'll probably need to in order to reach those numbers.

 

[SSOG]

SDavis is an interesting guy to bring up. He did well for fantasy purposes in that he had 12 TD. Take those away and he was pretty bad. (3.0 ypc and 5 total receptions). Carolina realized that Davis was not going to be a regular every down back and switched to Foster.

Workload wise, Davis had roughly 100 more career carries to start last year than Green has now.

As others have pointed out about the other guys with quad injuries, maybe their time was coming anyway. The same conveivably could be said about Green. Green as had a heavy workload and had already started being less productive. I'm not saying 100% that he is in the same group with the other guys returning that didn't do well, but IMO it is a realistic concern.

I really don't know what to expect from Green this year, but I'm guessing he won't get 12 TD as a goalline specialist. The past two seasons he seemed to be nicked up a fair amount, and I'm not sure how that factors into his return from his injury.

Fantasy wise, maybe you gamble on him at the right price, but I really would not go into things planning to have to use him. IMO, he's a RB 3 or 4 at best and maybe you get lucky. Some people have him pegged as their RB2 and think he's a safe bet to put up RB2 numbers, and I think that's wishful thinking at this point.

TDs definitely made SDavis a decent value pick. Without them... I'm right with you. I was actually fooled by him and was one that wrote him off too soon and let him slip by in the mid and later rounds during early June drafts. I don't want to do that again, and miss out on potential value with a 3rd/4th RB. No matter how much I believe or want Green to get healthy, I wouldn't risk taking him over other healthier backs in better situations. The 6th is about where I draw the line for now. If Green Bay's Oline was in better shape, I'd consider him earlier, but that honestly scares me more than the injury. It would be nice if Green Bay had a talent like Foster ready to take over, unfortunately they don't, and they really don't have many options except to give Green every oportunity to play. I'd be more than thrilled with 900-1000 total yards and 5-6 TDs. Like others have posted, I do expect to see him more involved in the passing game, and he'll probably need to in order to reach those numbers.

Deshaun Foster, in 15 games as the primary ballcarrier, has 3 career regular season 100 yard rushing games. Two came against a 2005 Atlanta Falcons defense that ranked 32nd in the NFL against the run in terms of ypc. One came against a 2004 Kansas City defense that ranked 31st in the NFL against the run in terms of ypc.Samkon Gado, in 6 games as the primary ballcarrier, has 3 career regular season 100 yard rushing games. One came against a 2005 Falcons squad that ranked 32nd against the run in terms of ypc. One came against a 2005 Detroit squad that ranked 22nd against the run. One came against a 2005 Philly squad that ranked 10th against the run. And remember that Gado plays behind a much worse Offensive Line.

I'd take Gado over Foster every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

 

[Unlucky]

I currently have Ahman Green at #19, ahead of Cadillac Williams.

All I have for Green is: 282/1086/7 with 40/300/1 receiving. Nothing crazy - he can do that as the starter. I've very low on Cadillac's receiving numbers.

Anyway, the point is that Green is a steal in rounds 4 or later if my numbers hold up. Since he's not going until the 6th in most drafts, I'd say grab him in the 5th and you'll be happy.

 

[rubrink]

I grabbed Javon Walker as my RB3 at pick 93 in a 14-man league, and am really counting on either him or Dominic Rhodes really coming on for me as my RB2

Sadly, after him, I;ve got Cedric Houston (what can I say, we drafted early :-D) and Morency. really tough getting more than three decent RBs in a 14-teamer.

So, it was a risk, but I think it may pay off

 

[shamrock84]

I grabbed Javon Walker as my RB3 at pick 93 in a 14-man league, and am really counting on either him or Dominic Rhodes really coming on for me as my RB2

Sadly, after him, I;ve got Cedric Houston (what can I say, we drafted early :-D) and Morency. really tough getting more than three decent RBs in a 14-teamer.

So, it was a risk, but I think it may pay off

 

[PatsWillWin]

I grabbed Javon Walker as my RB3 at pick 93 in a 14-man league, and am really counting on either him or Dominic Rhodes really coming on for me as my RB2Sadly, after him, I;ve got Cedric Houston (what can I say, we drafted early :-D) and Morency. really tough getting more than three decent RBs in a 14-teamer.So, it was a risk, but I think it may pay off

Objection! Relevance!

 

[Cenobite]

I grabbed Javon Walker as my RB3 at pick 93 in a 14-man league, and am really counting on either him or Dominic Rhodes really coming on for me as my RB2Sadly, after him, I;ve got Cedric Houston (what can I say, we drafted early :-D) and Morency. really tough getting more than three decent RBs in a 14-teamer.So, it was a risk, but I think it may pay off

Objection! Relevance!

I smell an insanity defense in the works.

 

[rubrink]

lol, my bad...I always accidentally say Javon walker instead of Ahman Green

My bad I meant Green

 

[H.K.]

Deshaun Foster, in 15 games as the primary ballcarrier, has 3 career regular season 100 yard rushing games. Two came against a 2005 Atlanta Falcons defense that ranked 32nd in the NFL against the run in terms of ypc. One came against a 2004 Kansas City defense that ranked 31st in the NFL against the run in terms of ypc.Samkon Gado, in 6 games as the primary ballcarrier, has 3 career regular season 100 yard rushing games. One came against a 2005 Falcons squad that ranked 32nd against the run in terms of ypc. One came against a 2005 Detroit squad that ranked 22nd against the run. One came against a 2005 Philly squad that ranked 10th against the run. And remember that Gado plays behind a much worse Offensive Line.I'd take Gado over Foster every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Here is Gado vs. Foster for there last seven games played in 2005:Foster: Averaged 20 carries a game and Rushed for 98.6 yards game (4.9 YPC)Caught 11 passes for 80 yards Scored three TD'sAveraged 110 total yards a game.GadoAveraged 20 carries a game and Rushed for 82 yards/game (4.1 YPC)Caught 10 passes for 77 yardsScored 7 TD'sAveraged 93 yards per gameOutside of TD's, Gado doesn't touch Foster.