Will Brees break Unitas' record? (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/brees-has-unitass-streak-in-his-sights/

Before the final week of the 2010 regular season, I noted that Drew Brees and Tom Brady had thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of their team’s first 15 games. Brady threw a pair of touchdown passes against Miami in the season finale last season, and has thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game this year, giving him 25 consecutive games with a touchdown pass. But Brees also kept his streak alive in Week 17 last season. In fact, after throwing for two touchdowns against the Falcons on Sunday, Brees has now thrown a touchdown pass in 37 consecutive regular-season games.

Over a five-year period from 1956 to 1960, Johnny Unitas threw a touchdown pass in 47 consecutive games in which he played, a record that has yet to be broken. Unitas missed two games with injury during the streak — and Brees missed one game during his streak when the Saints had already clinched the N.F.C’s top seed and he had set a league record — but missed games are not counted by the N.F.L. for purposes of such touchdown streaks.

Now that Brees is within shouting distance of the record, what’s the likelihood of him actually tying or breaking it? There are many variables that make it difficult to get a precise estimate. But here is how I would look at it.

Brees is throwing for a touchdown on 5.5 percent of his passes this season, consistent with his 5.6 percent average from 2008 to 2010. So let’s assume that over his next 10 games (which will stretch into next season, as only regular-season games are counted by the N.F.L. for such purposes) Brees will be on his same general touchdown pace since 2008.

The Saints consistently averaged around 11 drives per game in each of the past four seasons. In the 57 games Brees has been active during that time, New Orleans has had 619 drives (excluding take-a-knee drives at the end of a half), for an average of 10.9 drives per game. During that time, Brees has thrown 124 touchdown passes, or 0.20 touchdown passes per drive (and 2.18 touchdowns per game).

Since 2008, one in every five Saints drives has ended in a touchdown pass by Brees. If we assume 11 drives in a game, simple math tells us there is a 91.4 percent chance of Brees throwing a touchdown in any given game. But the odds of Brees throwing a touchdown pass in 10 straight games would be only 40.7 percent, and the likelihood of him breaking Unitas’s record by throwing a touchdown in an eleventh game is just 37.2 percent.

We could also use something called a Poisson distribution to estimate Brees’s likelihood of recording a zero-touchdown game. The Poisson distribution is widely used by statisticians because it expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring (zero touchdown passes) in a fixed interval of time (one game) if these events occur with a known average rate (2.18 touchdowns per game) and independently of the time since the last event. Based on the assumption that Brees is a 2.18 touchdown per game player, the Poisson distribution estimates that Brees has an 88.6 percent chance of throwing for a touchdown in any given game. That would indicate that Brees has roughly a 27 percent chance of breaking Unitas’s mark.

Of course, all such analysis assumes several things. One, it assumes that Brees stays healthy. Two, it assumes New Orleans does not change its offensive philosophy to maximize Brees’s odds of setting the record. There is also the assumption that each drive is an independent event, which is not true. Brees may have a 25 percent chance of throwing a touchdown pass on any given drive against a bad pass defense but only a 15 percent chance against an elite pass defense. Brees may simply have an off game, as we saw earlier this year against the Rams (more on that below). In general, the assumption that each drive is an independent event is likely to overstate Brees’s odds of throwing a touchdown pass in any given game. On the game level, note that Brees would need a 94 percent likelihood of throwing a touchdown pass in each game — instead of 91.4 percent — to be more likely than not to throw a touchdown in each of his next 11 games.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Everything is in place for him to break it. Style of O, pass catching RB in Sproles, elite red zone targets in Graham and a taller WR in Colston, plays in a dome, elite talent, yadda yadda yadda. Only injuries stop his march.

 

[dennis.moore]

Too bad he threw that junk TD with 6 seconds left against the Rams in week 8.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Too bad he threw that junk TD with 6 seconds left against the Rams in week 8.

hater Brees will get Unitas record. Bank it.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Brees will definitely break Johnny U's record.

Also by the way if Payton sees there's a record he will go for it and you know he knows about it.

You may not be aware but Brees has also thrown for the most yards through 10 games in NFL history. He is on pace to eclipse Marino's record right now by a good bit and in 2008 he would have done it previously if not for Lance Moore not catching the play call and failing to turn around for a wide open pass that would have broken the record.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Brees will definitely break Johnny U's record.Also by the way if Payton sees there's a record he will go for it and you know he knows about it.You may not be aware but Brees has also thrown for the most yards through 10 games in NFL history. He is on pace to eclipse Marino's record right now by a good bit and in 2008 he would have done it previously if not for Lance Moore not catching the play call and failing to turn around for a wide open pass that would have broken the record.

hold that thought, I'll be right back

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Doubt it

Ingram is due to carry this team soon

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league. During a time when there were no domes and DB mauled WR this record was unbreakable. I believe Unitas went on another 20+ game streak after his original was snapped.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

yes.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Anyone know what Drew's QB rating is during his current TD streak?

My calculations say 96.6

 

[Tau837]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league. During a time when there were no domes and DB mauled WR this record was unbreakable. I believe Unitas went on another 20+ game streak after his original was snapped.

And if you plopped Unitas in today's NFL he'd be totally shellshocked. The game then was not 1/10th as sophisticated as it is now.Apples and oranges comparison.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league.

Well, we know he's head and shoulders above Phillis Rivers. We will never know about how he compares to Johnny U seeing as though there time is about 50 years apart. You're entitled to your opinion. Doesn't mean it right.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league.

Well, we know he's head and shoulders above Phillis Rivers. We will never know about how he compares to Johnny U seeing as though there time is about 50 years apart. You're entitled to your opinion. Doesn't mean it right.

JohnnyU invented the modern day QB and the two minute drill. He called his own plays and played in a time when QBs didn't wear a dress. He was a true field general.

 

[Tau837]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league.

Well, we know he's head and shoulders above Phillis Rivers. We will never know about how he compares to Johnny U seeing as though there time is about 50 years apart. You're entitled to your opinion. Doesn't mean it right.

What does Rivers have to do with this topic? You just decided to take a shot at me for some reason because I am a Rivers fan? Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana are the top two QBs in NFL history IMO. Unless Brees were to reel off 2-3 more Super Bowl wins to close out his career, he has no shot at catching them.

 

[Tau837]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league.

Well, we know he's head and shoulders above Phillis Rivers. We will never know about how he compares to Johnny U seeing as though there time is about 50 years apart. You're entitled to your opinion. Doesn't mean it right.

JohnnyU invented the modern day QB and the two minute drill. He called his own plays and played in a time when QBs didn't wear a dress. He was a true field general.

 

[SproutDaddy]

So, wait.......everyone else can have extreme admiration for 1 QB except for me?

 

[LC512]

I hope the Saints season opener is in the Dome next year so he can break it in front of his fans.

 

[Hoops77]

I hope the Saints season opener is in the Dome next year so he can break it in front of his fans.

Drew....if he in fact breaks the record......won't be able to do so until week 5 of next year. He is at 37 straight right now.....6 more games throwing a TD pass this year would put him at only 43. Therefore, he would need 5 straight to start the season next year.

 

[andyhdz]

I hope the Saints season opener is in the Dome next year so he can break it in front of his fans.

Drew....if he in fact breaks the record......won't be able to do so until week 5 of next year. He is at 37 straight right now.....6 more games throwing a TD pass this year would put him at only 43. Therefore, he would need 5 straight to start the season next year.

what if in the playoffs he doesn't throw one...Asterisk?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

All I know is that this thread pretty much jinxed any chance Brees had a breaking Johnny U's record.

 

[Phlash]

Doubt itIngram is due to carry this team soon

I actually laughed when I read this... thank you

 

[Raider Nation]

And on we go...

 

[gianmarco]

Tack on another game.

3 weeks to go to tie, 4 to break.

 

[Raider Nation]

He ties Johnny U at 47 next week.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.footballperspective.com/analyzing-drew-brees-pursuit-of-johnny-unitas-legendary-streak/

 

[valhallan]

 

[Ralley Monkeys]

Brees is a very good QB but he's not in Johnny U's league. During a time when there were no domes and DB mauled WR this record was unbreakable. I believe Unitas went on another 20+ game streak after his original was snapped.

And if you plopped Unitas in today's NFL he'd be totally shellshocked. The game then was not 1/10th as sophisticated as it is now.Apples and oranges comparison.

Since this is an older thread and you're a guest I probably won't get an answer from you, but maybe anyone else that has this line of thought could unpack this for me.Johnny Unitas is listed at 6'1" and 195lbs by my search on google. He would be undersized by today's standards. Granted, he's not getting any taller but if he was "plopped into today's NFL" he'd have the advantage of a much more sophisticated training staff and strength and conditioning programs. He could put on 10 more pounds easily. Which, if google is to be believed about Brees' height and weight at 6'0" and 209. Unitas had very good arm strength as well. Physically Johnny U could compete today.As far as mental capacity for the game, do we really need to debate this? Johnny U called his own plays exclusively. He could pick up today's game pretty well. Now for the apples to oranges comparison. Today is much, much, more passer friendly. If Unitas had today's rules in place back in his time there's no telling how long his streak would have been. So with all due respect to Drew Brees, the game has changed. Breaking this record is impressive, but not that impressive in my opinion.

 

[Raider Nation]

TIED with Johnny U!

 

[gianmarco]

TIED with Johnny U!

 

[ang12]

Pushed off. Slap an asterisk on that record.

 

[BaBastage]

Pushed off. Slap an asterisk on that record.

Is that the best you can come up with? Let me know after you review all of Unitas' Touchdowns to see if any of them deserved asterisks. TIA.

 

[gianmarco]

Pushed off. Slap an asterisk on that record.

Is it ok if we take that asterisk off now?

 

[gianmarco]

Lock it up

 

[Instinctive]

Yes.

 

[Jewell]

I'll be the Richard who throws a wet blanket on Brees breaking Johnny U's record, but given today's rules that favor QBs and receivers and how prolific passing has become, Brees' record isn't nearly as impressive as Johnny U's record during his time. Not even close.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'll be the Richard who throws a wet blanket on Brees breaking Johnny U's record, but given today's rules that favor QBs and receivers and how prolific passing has become, Brees' record isn't nearly as impressive as Johnny U's record during his time. Not even close.

Of course it isn't. Anyone who argues otherwise is being silly. Still an impressive achievement though.

 

[Tau837]

I'll be the Richard who throws a wet blanket on Brees breaking Johnny U's record, but given today's rules that favor QBs and receivers and how prolific passing has become, Brees' record isn't nearly as impressive as Johnny U's record during his time. Not even close.

Of course it isn't. Anyone who argues otherwise is being silly. Still an impressive achievement though.

 

[Raider Nation]

Uh oh. Streak is just about done at 54.

 

[The Squeaky Wheel]

Glad this streak is over. Sick of hearing about it after record was broken. It was almost as annoying as Favre's Iron Man streak...

 

[Raider Nation]

Glad this streak is over. Sick of hearing about it after record was broken. It was almost as annoying as Favre's Iron Man streak...

Better get used to it. Brady is currently at 43.