Will the top 8 RBs in this class really outproduce the top WR? (1 Viewer)

[Bronco Billy]

Looking at some of the current prognostications going on with this draft class, as many as 8 RBs are being touted as better draft picks than the top WR.  I believe that this is incredibly unlikely, meaning at least one if not more of the top 8 RBs are going to disappoint thier FF owners.  The question is, which one(s) are they?

.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Respectful discussion is strongly encouraged.

Personally, I believe this RB class is being vastly overrated while the WR class is being underrated, feeding into this seemingly perceptual imbalance.  I see at least 3 WRs in the class in ppr being competitive in FF value with all but 3, and maybe less, of the top RBs - those WRs being Sutton, Moore, and Kirk.  Perhaps not as rookies, but that’s to be expected with WRs.  Their production curve is generally longer and slower to develop.

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[bostonfred]

Based on your wording I'll take the best receiver to out perform the worst running back. 

But if I have to pick which receiver, it gets a lot harder than if I get to pick the field.  I'm not that excited by any of these guys individually but there are a lot of guys who should be decent and have upside.  

And if the bar isn't set at "performs better than the worst running back" it gets a lot harder.  The worst running back will probably be a guy impacted by injury.

If the bar is set at "pick the guy who will be most valuable to your dynasty team over the course of his career", I'd probably still take all of the running backs before the first receiver.  There are 8 guys with potential workhorse or 3 down back roles. Not all of them will actually earn three down work, or be successful at it, or last long enough to be great, but all of them have the potential, and a workhorse back is more valuable than a decent receiver.  I'll gladly take a good chance at a workhorse back over a better chance at an ok receiver, and there's no receiver in this class that I feel confident has better than fantasy wr2 upside. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Based on your wording I'll take the best receiver to out perform the worst running back. 

But if I have to pick which receiver, it gets a lot harder than if I get to pick the field.  I'm not that excited by any of these guys individually but there are a lot of guys who should be decent and have upside.  

And if the bar isn't set at "performs better than the worst running back" it gets a lot harder.  The worst running back will probably be a guy impacted by injury.

If the bar is set at "pick the guy who will be most valuable to your dynasty team over the course of his career", I'd probably still take all of the running backs before the first receiver.  There are 8 guys with potential workhorse or 3 down back roles. Not all of them will actually earn three down work, or be successful at it, or last long enough to be great, but all of them have the potential, and a workhorse back is more valuable than a decent receiver.  I'll gladly take a good chance at a workhorse back over a better chance at an ok receiver, and there's no receiver in this class that I feel confident has better than fantasy wr2 upside. 

Thanks.  I’ll disagree, but exactly the kind of response I was hoping for.  Well done.

 

[bostonfred]

Sure. And as examples, I think Sutton is a mistake teams make almost every year with guys like cordarelle, Kevin white, etc.  He's big and athletic and can catch ok but doesn't actually play wide receiver that well, and these teams always think they can teach him the skills but you can't teach size and speed. He would have been a much better for in Carolina, where cam doesn't really care if you run great routes. dj Moore's relatively good route running is going to be wasted there. I liked moore a good bit headed into the draft but hate the landing spot.  I like Ridley's receiver skills more than his physical talent, and love the fit in Atlanta, but Julio is still the wr1 and I expect Atlanta to replace Julio when he's no longer able to play at a high level so I don't ever expect elite wr1 numbers.  I like Kirk and love seeing him play with a rookie qb and learn from fitz but not as a high end wr1. He might be a better cooper kupp. I liked Gallup ok before the draft and like him to emerge as the top receiver in Dallas this year, but I'm not convinced he's their top receiver in 2020. He's the best of a bunch of bad options. 

Etc

 

[SayWhat?]

Based on your wording I'll take the best receiver to out perform the worst running back. 

But if I have to pick which receiver, it gets a lot harder than if I get to pick the field.  I'm not that excited by any of these guys individually but there are a lot of guys who should be decent and have upside.  

And if the bar isn't set at "performs better than the worst running back" it gets a lot harder.  The worst running back will probably be a guy impacted by injury.

If the bar is set at "pick the guy who will be most valuable to your dynasty team over the course of his career", I'd probably still take all of the running backs before the first receiver.  There are 8 guys with potential workhorse or 3 down back roles. Not all of them will actually earn three down work, or be successful at it, or last long enough to be great, but all of them have the potential, and a workhorse back is more valuable than a decent receiver.  I'll gladly take a good chance at a workhorse back over a better chance at an ok receiver, and there's no receiver in this class that I feel confident has better than fantasy wr2 upside. 

/thread

 

[bostonfred]

Now look at the backs.  The lions have a much improved o line and traded up to get Kerryon who they like as an inside and outside runner who can catch.  That's a potential 3 down back. He could also bust, or play like all those lion rbs before him.  

Ronald Jones is a risky pick this early. I love his acceleration and the way he always seems to fall forward but I'm worried that NFL teams see him as a CoP back.  Right now he looks like he could be their every down starter, but if they bring in cj Anderson I'll slide him down 5 spots maybe more. 

Chubb is arguably as talented as Gurley, but while the combine made it look like he's completely back, the browns are not a great place for him to show it in year one. But he has legit rb1 upside imo, and like Gurley he has been working hard on his receiving skills. 

Freeman has a clear path to a starting job and he catches the ball pretty well too.  His biggest competition is a sucky Booker and a udfa whose claim to fame is that he looks better than a sucky Booker. Another potential 3 down back.  But he's not really great at anything, so who knows if he'll stick long term. 

If Michel looks like Dion did the second half of last season?  Stud.  If he looks like Dion the last 3 years combined? Meh.

Etc etc

 

[jtd13]

Based on your wording I'll take the best receiver to out perform the worst running back. 

But if I have to pick which receiver, it gets a lot harder than if I get to pick the field.  I'm not that excited by any of these guys individually but there are a lot of guys who should be decent and have upside.  

And if the bar isn't set at "performs better than the worst running back" it gets a lot harder.  The worst running back will probably be a guy impacted by injury.

If the bar is set at "pick the guy who will be most valuable to your dynasty team over the course of his career", I'd probably still take all of the running backs before the first receiver.  There are 8 guys with potential workhorse or 3 down back roles. Not all of them will actually earn three down work, or be successful at it, or last long enough to be great, but all of them have the potential, and a workhorse back is more valuable than a decent receiver.  I'll gladly take a good chance at a workhorse back over a better chance at an ok receiver, and there's no receiver in this class that I feel confident has better than fantasy wr2 upside. 

Good answer. I will definitely take the field of WRs to outproduce at least one of the 8 RBs. But I will still take those 8 RBs before I take a WR in most leagues at this point. I have more confidence in a guy like Freeman or Johnson getting the workload to make him a valuable pick than I do in picking one of the WRs this month. 

The other side of it is that I don't see a huge advantage in getting Ridley/DJ Moore/Sutton over guys like Gallup/Miller/JM Moore later. WR just seems to be a pretty slow decline into the late 2nd, whereas RBs fall off of a cliff after the 8th guy. 

 

[jtd13]

Sure. And as examples, I think Sutton is a mistake teams make almost every year with guys like cordarelle, Kevin white, etc.  He's big and athletic and can catch ok but doesn't actually play wide receiver that well, and these teams always think they can teach him the skills but you can't teach size and speed. He would have been a much better for in Carolina, where cam doesn't really care if you run great routes. dj Moore's relatively good route running is going to be wasted there. I liked moore a good bit headed into the draft but hate the landing spot.  I like Ridley's receiver skills more than his physical talent, and love the fit in Atlanta, but Julio is still the wr1 and I expect Atlanta to replace Julio when he's no longer able to play at a high level so I don't ever expect elite wr1 numbers.  I like Kirk and love seeing him play with a rookie qb and learn from fitz but not as a high end wr1. He might be a better cooper kupp. I liked Gallup ok before the draft and like him to emerge as the top receiver in Dallas this year, but I'm not convinced he's their top receiver in 2020. He's the best of a bunch of bad options. 

Etc

I'm this close to having Miller as my top guy, but then I realize he's an identical prospect to Taywan Taylor last year, who I got in the 3rd in a bunch of drafts. It's just a bad draft class for alpha WRs, and the landing spots did nothing for the guys that had a chance to be alpha WRs. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Looking at some of the current prognostications going on with this draft class, as many as 8 RBs are being touted as better draft picks than the top WR.  I believe that this is incredibly unlikely, meaning at least one if not more of the top 8 RBs are going to disappoint thier FF owners.  The question is, which one(s) are they?

.

Of course it's unlikely - but you can't take the "field" at WR so you play the odds at a more valuable/shallow position and take the RB. If some one really believed in one of the WRs they should take him over guys like Johnson and Freeman that are longer shots to succeed.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think "RB fever" increased because every RB landed on a team where they will definitely be plugged in to start or where the road to the starting position looks pretty clear. If Kerryon Johnson was drafted by Minnesota, Jones was drafted by Arizona and Freeman went to Green Bay, rookie drafts would look a lot different.

The WR class has some talent but no obvious (to most) studs.  However in my only rookie draft that has started so far Moore, Kirk and Ridley all went before Freeman and Johnson so don't be so sure the 8 RBs will be the first 8 picks in all rookie drafts.

 

[bostonfred]

I just picked kerryon at 1.8 as the 8th back off the board in non ppr. I would have pre drafted if there wasn't a chance 1.7 took a receiver and left me with a chance to trade down one spot. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Interesting that Kerryon is leading the pack in the bust poll.

 

[Bronco Billy]

As of this morning, the percentage of total voted that any given RB will bust:

Johnson 62%

Michel 40%

Freeman 36%

Jones 26%

Penny 26%

Chubb 24%

Guice 12%

No busts 6%

Barkley 0%

Maybe there are others who are seeing that this class may not perform quite as well as they are currently being touted.

 

[FF Ninja]

I voted for a couple guys just because probability says a few will bust (so I felt compelled to take a couple stabs). Which is the sole reason I took the WR field over all 8 RBs. Probability says one of these WRs will (eventually) be good and at least one RB will bust. That doesn't mean I don't think this RB class will perform as well as they are currently touted. This is an absolutely exquisite RB class and an underwhelming WR class. On top of that, all the RBs went to nice landing spots and the WRs did not. I mean, let's look this through:

Barkley - has NYG all to himself
Guice - had a surprising draft slide, but almost certainly being handed the early down role in Washington
Chubb - early 2nd round pick, nice OL, new QB, but does have to contend with Hyde for a year (not a big deal)
Penny - surprise 1st rounder with a lot of other NFL teams interested; already 3-down talk
RoJo - early 2nd round pick that has TB all to himself
Michel - 3-down talent that went in the 1st round to a powerful offense looking to take some pressure off their old QB
Kerryon - early 2nd round pick to a strong offense, might have to contend with a 31/32 yo Blount for 1 year
Freeman - early 3rd round pick, likely to leapfrog an underperforming Booker

That's pretty optimal. Nobody is fighting Ajayi in an RBBC or sitting behind a strong incumbent with 1 year on their deal (like if NO was planning beyond Ingram or something). But then we've got the WRs:

Ridley - stuck behind Julio and sharing snaps with Sanu; average QB
Sutton - buried behind Sanders and DT for a year on a team without a long term QB
Moore - 1st WR off the board, low volume passing attack
Washington - buried behind Brown and JuJu
Kirk - decent landing spot due to lack of surrounding talent, but he's a slot WR on a team where Fitzgerald is the slot WR
Gallup - probably the best landing spot, but we're talking about a 3rd round pick now
Pettis - does anyone know what to make of him or his surprisingly early draft pick?
Miller - second fiddle to AR15 in best case scenario; not sure if Trubisky is good
St. Brown - great landing spot, but fell to the 6th round

I know we're talking dynasty/long-term, but being buried on a depth chart is a crappy way to start. Washington may not be relevant until his 2nd contract. Miller could get beaten out by Gabriel or Kevin White. St. Brown has a lot of competition and a minimal investment from the team in him. SF is talking about Pettis returning kicks - how big of a role will he have? If you were hurting at WR going into this draft, you have to be disappointed with this class and the way the draft panned out. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

I voted for a couple guys just because probability says a few will bust (so I felt compelled to take a couple stabs). Which is the sole reason I took the WR field over all 8 RBs. Probability says one of these WRs will (eventually) be good and at least one RB will bust. That doesn't mean I don't think this RB class will perform as well as they are currently touted. This is an absolutely exquisite RB class and an underwhelming WR class. On top of that, all the RBs went to nice landing spots and the WRs did not. I mean, let's look this through:

Barkley - has NYG all to himself
Guice - had a surprising draft slide, but almost certainly being handed the early down role in Washington
Chubb - early 2nd round pick, nice OL, new QB, but does have to contend with Hyde for a year (not a big deal)
Penny - surprise 1st rounder with a lot of other NFL teams interested; already 3-down talk
RoJo - early 2nd round pick that has TB all to himself
Michel - 3-down talent that went in the 1st round to a powerful offense looking to take some pressure off their old QB
Kerryon - early 2nd round pick to a strong offense, might have to contend with a 31/32 yo Blount for 1 year
Freeman - early 3rd round pick, likely to leapfrog an underperforming Booker

That's pretty optimal. Nobody is fighting Ajayi in an RBBC or sitting behind a strong incumbent with 1 year on their deal (like if NO was planning beyond Ingram or something). But then we've got the WRs:

Ridley - stuck behind Julio and sharing snaps with Sanu; average QB
Sutton - buried behind Sanders and DT for a year on a team without a long term QB
Moore - 1st WR off the board, low volume passing attack
Washington - buried behind Brown and JuJu
Kirk - decent landing spot due to lack of surrounding talent, but he's a slot WR on a team where Fitzgerald is the slot WR
Gallup - probably the best landing spot, but we're talking about a 3rd round pick now
Pettis - does anyone know what to make of him or his surprisingly early draft pick?
Miller - second fiddle to AR15 in best case scenario; not sure if Trubisky is good
St. Brown - great landing spot, but fell to the 6th round

I know we're talking dynasty/long-term, but being buried on a depth chart is a crappy way to start. Washington may not be relevant until his 2nd contract. Miller could get beaten out by Gabriel or Kevin White. St. Brown has a lot of competition and a minimal investment from the team in him. SF is talking about Pettis returning kicks - how big of a role will he have? If you were hurting at WR going into this draft, you have to be disappointed with this class and the way the draft panned out. 

Wow.  Is that ever pessimistic for the WRs.  Interesting that you’re simultaneously such an optimist for the RBs.

 

[Borden]

**Operator error: I picked “Yes” when it should’ve been “No” in the poll. Posting from my phone and tapped the wrong circle. Sorry**

The question/poll is too vague. Will at least one of the 8 backs bust? Almost certainly. Will even 1 WR from an entire draft class have an at least semi-productive career? Pretty much guaranteed. However it is a lot different to talk in general terms than it is too actually pin point which one is which for the purpose of drafts. 

I picked Freeman as my bust just because I’m not a believer. See his thread for further discussion and/or my opinion.

 

[Buckna]

I think people are way over optimistic on the RB's but are spot on with being down on the WR's. I am not nearly as excited about many of those RB landing spots/situations as others as I see a host of issues with certain destinations, and RBBC for a few of the others. If I was still in non-ppr leagues, I would be much more excited about this RB class.

 

[bostonfred]

Wow.  Is that ever pessimistic for the WRs.  Interesting that you’re simultaneously such an optimist for the RBs.

Can you pick a receiver from this class that you're confident will be a top 10 fantasy wr at any point in their career?  I've got one that I feel like has a chance and four more that I think could be top 20. After that it gets murky for me. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Can you pick a receiver from this class that you're confident will be a top 10 fantasy wr at any point in their career?  I've got one that I feel like has a chance and four more that I think could be top 20. After that it gets murky for me. 

So a WR has to be career top 10 to have value?  I reject that kind of thinking.  By that account, all but 10 WRs in the league have less value than these 8 RBs.

Do I think that there are going to be WR1s and WR2s coming out of this class?  Yes, I think like you that there are likely 4-5 who will fit that bill multiple years in their careers, plus some others with upside who could get there depending on how their next 3-4 years shake out.

 

[bostonfred]

So a WR has to be career top 10 to have value?  I reject that kind of thinking.  By that account, all but 10 WRs in the league have less value than these 8 RBs.

Do I think that there are going to be WR1s and WR2s coming out of this class?  Yes, I think like you that there are likely 4-5 who will fit that bill multiple years in their careers, plus some others with upside who could get there depending on how their next 3-4 years shake out.

No, a receiver doesn't have to be top ten to have value.  But I also clarified my question with a top 10 fantasy wr at any point in their career.  There are dozens of receivers who have been top ten at some point in their career.  Randall Cobb was top ten for a year or so.   So were DeSean Jackson, Rishard Matthews, Terrelle Pryor and most of these guys

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.8    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.2    (3)
1    3    Mike Evans    TB    25.0    (2)
2    4    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (4)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.1    (5)
3    6    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (6)
3    7    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.3    (8)
3    8    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.2    (9)
3    9    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.5    (11)
3    10    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (12)
3    11    Brandin Cooks    RAM    24.9    (7)
3    12    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (20)
3    13    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.0    (10)
4    14    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (13)
4    15    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (14)
4    16    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.2    (16)
4    17    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (17)
4    19    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (15)
5    20    Josh Gordon    CLE    27.4    (23)
5    23    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (21)
6    25    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (27)
6    28    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (28)
6    29    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.5    (22)
7    33    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (34)  
7    35    Dez Bryant        29.8    (29)
7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (31)
7    38    Martavis Bryant    OAK    26.7    (45)
7    40    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    42    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (36)
7    49    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (54)
8    54    Randall Cobb    GB    28.0    (44)
8    55    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (51)
8    56    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (43)
8    64    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (42)
8    65    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (57)
9    76    Jordan Matthews    NE    26.1    (76) 
10    81    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (66)
10    82    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (67)
10    83    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (72)
10    85    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (68)
10    87    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (70)
10    88    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (71)

 

[FF Ninja]

Wow.  Is that ever pessimistic for the WRs.  Interesting that you’re simultaneously such an optimist for the RBs.

Believe me... it sucks for me. I'm pretty loaded at RB in most of my leagues and while my WR situation isn't dire, it is where I have the least depth. I plan to shop my picks to RB needy teams for either WR or future picks.

If confirmation bias were to swing me, it would swing me to be optimistic about the WRs in this class and I just can't get excited about it. Sometimes you've just got to be realistic. The grades on these RBs are just amazing this year. Don't try to go against the grain just to be different. There are a lot of studs in this draft class. I like a contrarian opinion as much as the next guy, but it just doesn't work this year. There's a lot of RB talent and it all fell to the right places in the draft. There wasn't much top end WR talent in this draft and what there was didn't land in the right spots. I've accepted it... so should you. 

If I can't sell my picks, I'll take BPA for the most part. I do plan to take my favorite WR if I find myself with a pick in the 1.07-1.09 range, although if my team were perfectly balanced, I'd go for RB there.

 

[Bronco Billy]

No, a receiver doesn't have to be top ten to have value.  But I also clarified my question with a top 10 fantasy wr at any point in their career.  There are dozens of receivers who have been top ten at some point in their career.  Randall Cobb was top ten for a year or so.   So were DeSean Jackson, Rishard Matthews, Terrelle Pryor and most of these guys

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.8    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.2    (3)
1    3    Mike Evans    TB    25.0    (2)
2    4    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (4)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.1    (5)
3    6    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (6)
3    7    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.3    (8)
3    8    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.2    (9)
3    9    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.5    (11)
3    10    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (12)
3    11    Brandin Cooks    RAM    24.9    (7)
3    12    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (20)
3    13    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.0    (10)
4    14    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (13)
4    15    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (14)
4    16    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.2    (16)
4    17    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (17)
4    19    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (15)
5    20    Josh Gordon    CLE    27.4    (23)
5    23    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (21)
6    25    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (27)
6    28    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (28)
6    29    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.5    (22)
7    33    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (34)  
7    35    Dez Bryant        29.8    (29)
7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (31)
7    38    Martavis Bryant    OAK    26.7    (45)
7    40    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    42    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (36)
7    49    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (54)
8    54    Randall Cobb    GB    28.0    (44)
8    55    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (51)
8    56    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (43)
8    64    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (42)
8    65    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (57)
9    76    Jordan Matthews    NE    26.1    (76) 
10    81    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (66)
10    82    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (67)
10    83    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (72)
10    85    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (68)
10    87    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (70)
10    88    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (71)

Okay, if that’s the game we are playing.  I’ll guess that at least 4 of the WRs in this draft class end up as a top 10 WR some time during their career.  Sutton once DT is off the roster, maybe as early as next year.  Kirk once Fitz retires and Rosen is up to speed - likely after the next 2 years.  Moore if Newton ever gets hurt or retires and they have a backup who can regulary complete a 5 yd pass, and some other of the rest of the pack.  

 

[Dezbelief]

Anybody else feel like BB should be working for Gallup?

 

[Dezbelief]

Yes the WR with the best career should outperform at least one of the 8 RBs.

As a whole the RBs are better prospects than the WRs this year.

I could see a couple of RBs becoming HoFers. I'm not feeling it for any of the WRs.

 

[texasbirdfan]

I voted for a couple guys just because probability says a few will bust (so I felt compelled to take a couple stabs). Which is the sole reason I took the WR field over all 8 RBs. Probability says one of these WRs will (eventually) be good and at least one RB will bust. That doesn't mean I don't think this RB class will perform as well as they are currently touted. This is an absolutely exquisite RB class and an underwhelming WR class. On top of that, all the RBs went to nice landing spots and the WRs did not. I mean, let's look this through:

Barkley - has NYG all to himself
Guice - had a surprising draft slide, but almost certainly being handed the early down role in Washington
Chubb - early 2nd round pick, nice OL, new QB, but does have to contend with Hyde for a year (not a big deal)
Penny - surprise 1st rounder with a lot of other NFL teams interested; already 3-down talk
RoJo - early 2nd round pick that has TB all to himself
Michel - 3-down talent that went in the 1st round to a powerful offense looking to take some pressure off their old QB
Kerryon - early 2nd round pick to a strong offense, might have to contend with a 31/32 yo Blount for 1 year
Freeman - early 3rd round pick, likely to leapfrog an underperforming Booker

That's pretty optimal. Nobody is fighting Ajayi in an RBBC or sitting behind a strong incumbent with 1 year on their deal (like if NO was planning beyond Ingram or something). But then we've got the WRs:

Ridley - stuck behind Julio and sharing snaps with Sanu; average QB
Sutton - buried behind Sanders and DT for a year on a team without a long term QB
Moore - 1st WR off the board, low volume passing attack
Washington - buried behind Brown and JuJu
Kirk - decent landing spot due to lack of surrounding talent, but he's a slot WR on a team where Fitzgerald is the slot WR
Gallup - probably the best landing spot, but we're talking about a 3rd round pick now
Pettis - does anyone know what to make of him or his surprisingly early draft pick?
Miller - second fiddle to AR15 in best case scenario; not sure if Trubisky is good
St. Brown - great landing spot, but fell to the 6th round

I know we're talking dynasty/long-term, but being buried on a depth chart is a crappy way to start. Washington may not be relevant until his 2nd contract. Miller could get beaten out by Gabriel or Kevin White. St. Brown has a lot of competition and a minimal investment from the team in him. SF is talking about Pettis returning kicks - how big of a role will he have? If you were hurting at WR going into this draft, you have to be disappointed with this class and the way the draft panned out. 

Nice extensive piece.  Homer aside, I'm throwing it in my garbage can as fiction after naming Matt Ryan an average qb...

 

[Football Jones]

Personally, I believe this RB class is being vastly overrated while the WR class is being underrated.

.

I probably won't discuss much until all my drafts are done, but I feel the same (in general).

 

[FF Ninja]

Nice extensive piece.  Homer aside, I'm throwing it in my garbage can as fiction after naming Matt Ryan an average qb...

I was speaking from a fantasy WR perspective. Matt Ryan's TD per attempt ratio is the same as Eli Manning and Andy Dalton. There was some discussion in another thread that Ridley might have 10 TDs opposite Julio. I'm extremely skeptical this will ever happen while he's on the Falcons, much less as a rookie. 

 

[texasbirdfan]

I was speaking from a fantasy WR perspective. Matt Ryan's TD per attempt ratio is the same as Eli Manning and Andy Dalton. There was some discussion in another thread that Ridley might have 10 TDs opposite Julio. I'm extremely skeptical this will ever happen while he's on the Falcons, much less as a rookie. 

I would find it hard to naming a one season removed from league MVP: "average".  His 2017 OC we all can agree was below average.  Ryan generally is a top 12 fantasy QB.   Touchdowns passes aren't the only measure of effectiveness since most fantasy players go with yardage and PPR now.  Whatever Ridley does it will be a team effort with Sanu, Jones, Hopper and the 2 backs and that is not on Ryan as a QB

 

[bostonfred]

I can probably name ten better qbs than Ryan. That puts him in the middle third of the league.  

 

[-OZ-]

I can probably name ten better qbs than Ryan. That puts him in the middle third of the league.  

We can all agree he's not tier 1 / elite. But that's maybe 5 QBs. But he sure seems like he belongs in tier 2, franchise but not elite.  Similar to Stafford, Rivers, Ben, Carr, etc. ranking within that tier comes to personal preference.  He has shown he can perform at the elite level but we probably shouldn't expect him to since shanny left.

 

[FF Ninja]

I would find it hard to naming a one season removed from league MVP: "average".  His 2017 OC we all can agree was below average.  Ryan generally is a top 12 fantasy QB.   Touchdowns passes aren't the only measure of effectiveness since most fantasy players go with yardage and PPR now.  Whatever Ridley does it will be a team effort with Sanu, Jones, Hopper and the 2 backs and that is not on Ryan as a QB

In the past 3 seasons, he's finished QB18, QB3, and QB14. I think we all know 2016 was the outlier. There are only 32 teams in the league, so if you're outside the top 10, you're in the average range. 

 

[-OZ-]

In the past 3 seasons, he's finished QB18, QB3, and QB14. I think we all know 2016 was the outlier. There are only 32 teams in the league, so if you're outside the top 10, you're in the average range. 

2014 he was #8. So in half of the past 4 seasons he was top ten. 

16 was an outlier but the guy is right below the elite QBs, a franchise QB. Clearly above average. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Wait.  A QB who has averaged over 4500 yds passing and almost 28 passing TDs over the last 7 years is average?  In what universe?

On top of that, ATL has been a top 8 team in passing yds each of those 7 seasons, and the only QB who has started a game for them in that time is average.

.

 

[Biabreakable]

It is an interesting poll BB.

As for the first question about if ALL 8 of the RB will have better careers than the best WR from this draft class, its not really a fair question. 

First of all WR tend to have longer careers than RB do, so if we are talking about the players entire career, it is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel that at least one of these WR will have a better career than any of the 8 RB.

That does not mean that any of these WR will have a best season over the course of their career than these RB will. Id the RB do well they may turn in higher total points seasons or higher VBD seasons than any of the WR do, even though the WR may end up having better overall careers.

Another factor in this is how soon will the WR start putting up good numbers?

We all know that the RB can start putting up numbers right away if they are good, while WR usually take longer to develop.

If the question were if the RB will have better numbers over the first 3 seasons of their careers, I think you would see more mixed results. 

It is still stacking the odds though as only one of the top 8 RB needs to fail while any WR from the entire field has to have a good career, which if they do we should see at least signs of that by their 2nd or 3rd season.

As for the 2nd question any of them could bust but I voted for 4 of them as more likely to bust than the other 4. Freemn, Johnson, Penny and Michel all have bust risk, or maybe not as strong a word as bust, but have risks to not be very relevant for FF numbers.

The reason I voted for those 4 and not the other 4 is that I do believe in the top 4 RB talent more than the others. I would be shocked if Barkley or Guice were busts. I can see ways that Chubb and Jones could bust but I think they are too talented, that risk seems lower to me for them than the other 4.

This is a factor I consider when making rankings as well. For the RB we all know that just about any decent RB with enough opportunity can finish at top 12 at their position (the compettion is getting stronger league wide right now making this a bit harder than it has been in recent years) but how likely is that? I rank the players who I think it is more likely for that to happen and for the player to be able to do it repeatedly for tier one in my rankings, while the ones who are less likely to do that sustainably I put in tier two, althogh I acknowledge that those players could finish that high if the stars align for them, but I don't think they will be able to do that more than once.

This is based off the history of the best RB only having two top 12 seasons on average.

A top 12 season for a RB is more valuable than a top 13-24 season for the WR even though the WR may have 4 or 5 WR two type seasons with the RB only having one top 12 and a couple 13-24 seasons.

 

[Bronco Billy]

It is an interesting poll BB.

As for the first question about if ALL 8 of the RB will have better careers than the best WR from this draft class, its not really a fair question. 

First of all WR tend to have longer careers than RB do, so if we are talking about the players entire career, it is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel that at least one of these WR will have a better career than any of the 8 RB.

That does not mean that any of these WR will have a best season over the course of their career than these RB will. Id the RB do well they may turn in higher total points seasons or higher VBD seasons than any of the WR do, even though the WR may end up having better overall careers.

Another factor in this is how soon will the WR start putting up good numbers?

We all know that the RB can start putting up numbers right away if they are good, while WR usually take longer to develop.

If the question were if the RB will have better numbers over the first 3 seasons of their careers, I think you would see more mixed results. 

It is still stacking the odds though as only one of the top 8 RB needs to fail while any WR from the entire field has to have a good career, which if they do we should see at least signs of that by their 2nd or 3rd season.

As for the 2nd question any of them could bust but I voted for 4 of them as more likely to bust than the other 4. Freemn, Johnson, Penny and Michel all have bust risk, or maybe not as strong a word as bust, but have risks to not be very relevant for FF numbers.

The reason I voted for those 4 and not the other 4 is that I do believe in the top 4 RB talent more than the others. I would be shocked if Barkley or Guice were busts. I can see ways that Chubb and Jones could bust but I think they are too talented, that risk seems lower to me for them than the other 4.

This is a factor I consider when making rankings as well. For the RB we all know that just about any decent RB with enough opportunity can finish at top 12 at their position (the compettion is getting stronger league wide right now making this a bit harder than it has been in recent years) but how likely is that? I rank the players who I think it is more likely for that to happen and for the player to be able to do it repeatedly for tier one in my rankings, while the ones who are less likely to do that sustainably I put in tier two, althogh I acknowledge that those players could finish that high if the stars align for them, but I don't think they will be able to do that more than once.

This is based off the history of the best RB only having two top 12 seasons on average.

A top 12 season for a RB is more valuable than a top 13-24 season for the WR even though the WR may have 4 or 5 WR two type seasons with the RB only having one top 12 and a couple 13-24 seasons.

I appreciate the feedback.  Any notion of fairness or unfairness never entered my mind, nor am I really interested in creating something “fair”.

This is based upon the notion that this year’s RB class is so strong and the WRs are so weak that we are seeing at times even experts advocating  drafting up to 8 RBs before the first WR should go off the board.  My initial reaction is that is ridiculous, and that there are at least a few RBs that are being valued too highly.  That is what generated the questions, and I didn’t want to cloud the question on the RBs by asking people to make comparisons to the WRs, so I elected to keep it simpler.  But the data is interesting in how people here do percieve the RBs.

 

[bostonfred]

As of this morning, the percentage of total voted that any given RB will bust:

Johnson 62%

Michel 40%

Freeman 36%

Jones 26%

Penny 26%

Chubb 24%

Guice 12%

No busts 6%

Barkley 0%

Maybe there are others who are seeing that this class may not perform quite as well as they are currently being touted.

Were you planning to update these numbers in the thread? I just voted to see what the results were and was surprised how different they were from when you posted this 

 

[Biabreakable]

I appreciate the feedback.  Any notion of fairness or unfairness never entered my mind, nor am I really interested in creating something “fair”.

This is based upon the notion that this year’s RB class is so strong and the WRs are so weak that we are seeing at times even experts advocating  drafting up to 8 RBs before the first WR should go off the board.  My initial reaction is that is ridiculous, and that there are at least a few RBs that are being valued too highly.  That is what generated the questions, and I didn’t want to cloud the question on the RBs by asking people to make comparisons to the WRs, so I elected to keep it simpler.  But the data is interesting in how people here do percieve the RBs.

I agree and its certainly worth discussing.

When I use the word fair I don't mean that in any sort of ethical sense, but just in the sense of setting up a question or experiment.

The way you set up the question the easy answer is to choose that out of the entire field of rookie WR that at least one of them will have a better career than the top 8 RB. Thats a suckers bet if I ever saw one.

 

[Arodin]

I appreciate the feedback.  Any notion of fairness or unfairness never entered my mind, nor am I really interested in creating something “fair”.

This is based upon the notion that this year’s RB class is so strong and the WRs are so weak that we are seeing at times even experts advocating  drafting up to 8 RBs before the first WR should go off the board.  My initial reaction is that is ridiculous, and that there are at least a few RBs that are being valued too highly.  That is what generated the questions, and I didn’t want to cloud the question on the RBs by asking people to make comparisons to the WRs, so I elected to keep it simpler.  But the data is interesting in how people here do percieve the RBs.

The issue for me is that, like Bia says, the odds favor the idea that some WRs will outperform some RBs.

The problem I have, which makes me agree with the "take all the RBs first" is that I like my chances of picking a successful RB out of this year's crop of RBs much better than my chances of picking which WR will.

Ask me to bet that Ridley, Moore, Kirk, Miller or Washington will outplay Michel or Kerryon or Freeman and Imlike that bet.  I judt have no idea which of those guys will do it so it is easier to wait and bet on whichever one falls to me.

 

[kutta]

I appreciate the feedback.  Any notion of fairness or unfairness never entered my mind, nor am I really interested in creating something “fair”.

This is based upon the notion that this year’s RB class is so strong and the WRs are so weak that we are seeing at times even experts advocating  drafting up to 8 RBs before the first WR should go off the board.  My initial reaction is that is ridiculous, and that there are at least a few RBs that are being valued too highly.  That is what generated the questions, and I didn’t want to cloud the question on the RBs by asking people to make comparisons to the WRs, so I elected to keep it simpler.  But the data is interesting in how people here do percieve the RBs.

Which one WR would you pick in the top 8 to outperform the remaining RB’s? Because that’s why the RB’s are going early - they are “safer.” But of course one of these WR’s will outperform some of the RB’s - we just don’t know who it will be.

 

[FF Ninja]

2014 he was #8. So in half of the past 4 seasons he was top ten. 

16 was an outlier but the guy is right below the elite QBs, a franchise QB. Clearly above average. 

With a new crop of passers, he's not top 10 anymore. If you're in the middle 10, you're average. If you're in the bottom ten, you're below average.

Rodgers, Wilson, Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Rivers, Cousins, Roethlisberger are all guys I'd rather my WR be catching passes from. Luck is an unknown, but probably. Brees and Brady are getting old but still beat out Ryan. By the time they are done, Ryan will likely be leap frogged by 1-2 rookies from this year along with some other up and comers... Mariota, Winston, Garoppolo, Dak, Trubisky. And hell, Alex Smith's 2017 was better than Ryan's. I just don't see a way to rank Ryan in any top 10 lists. 

Wait.  A QB who has averaged over 4500 yds passing and almost 28 passing TDs over the last 7 years is average?  In what universe?

On top of that, ATL has been a top 8 team in passing yds each of those 7 seasons, and the only QB who has started a game for them in that time is average..

In the universe that doesn't care what Ryan did before, largely due to passing attempt volume (four 600+ seasons in a row), because Ridley is on the team now. The Shanahan season is gone. It's never coming back. It will always reside as the outlier of his career. What we saw in 2017 is what we should expect going forward. If you think the ATL offense is going back to 650 PA, buy up that Ridley stock. I'm of the opinion they like their balanced offense.

 

[-OZ-]

I appreciate the feedback.  Any notion of fairness or unfairness never entered my mind, nor am I really interested in creating something “fair”.

This is based upon the notion that this year’s RB class is so strong and the WRs are so weak that we are seeing at times even experts advocating  drafting up to 8 RBs before the first WR should go off the board.  My initial reaction is that is ridiculous, and that there are at least a few RBs that are being valued too highly.  That is what generated the questions, and I didn’t want to cloud the question on the RBs by asking people to make comparisons to the WRs, so I elected to keep it simpler.  But the data is interesting in how people here do percieve the RBs.

Probably because it's not about "all 8 are guaranteed to be better!!!11!!!"

It's "Freeman or your favorite wr" or "Johnson or your favorite wr" etc. For each of those questions, taking the RB can make sense.

 

[-OZ-]

With a new crop of passers, he's not top 10 anymore. If you're in the middle 10, you're average. If you're in the bottom ten, you're below average.

Rodgers, Wilson, Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Rivers, Cousins, Roethlisberger are all guys I'd rather my WR be catching passes from. Luck is an unknown, but probably. Brees and Brady are getting old but still beat out Ryan. By the time they are done, Ryan will likely be leap frogged by 1-2 rookies from this year along with some other up and comers... Mariota, Winston, Garoppolo, Dak, Trubisky. And hell, Alex Smith's 2017 was better than Ryan's. I just don't see a way to rank Ryan in any top 10 lists. .

Other than a handful this is just personal opinion and preference.

 

[FF Ninja]

Other than a handful this is just personal opinion and preference.

Who of those guys do you like Ryan better than?

 

[-OZ-]

Who of those guys do you like Ryan better than?

I think you're missing my point. 

We can probably all agree that Rodgers, a healthy luck, Wentz, Brady, and Brees are better passers than Ryan. 

After that it's a big group which includes Ryan and I think 10 others.I'm not trying to rank them 6-16, he's on par with the best of the rest. But that I have him in tier 2, 6-16, means at least in my humble opinion, he's above average. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

In the universe that doesn't care what Ryan did before, largely due to passing attempt volume (four 600+ seasons in a row), because Ridley is on the team now. The Shanahan season is gone. It's never coming back. It will always reside as the outlier of his career. What we saw in 2017 is what we should expect going forward. If you think the ATL offense is going back to 650 PA, buy up that Ridley stock. I'm of the opinion they like their balanced offense.

You’re the one making the claims that the facts don’t support.  We get it.  You don’t like Ryan.  But that’s your opinion in the face of seven consecutive years of well above average performance.  If ATL has a weapon like that and chooses to hamstring him, that’s their prerogative, but I’d guess they may want to revisit what made ATL successful in the past and play to their strengths.  It’s unfortunate that you choose to dig in your heels and double down despite seeing facts that clearly rebut that position.  It really doesn’t help your position when you do that.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Probably because it's not about "all 8 are guaranteed to be better!!!11!!!"

It's "Freeman or your favorite wr" or "Johnson or your favorite wr" etc. For each of those questions, taking the RB can make sense.

And can just as easily be wrong.

Let me put my position this way.  Let’s say that the overwhelmingly majority agree that one or more of the top 8 RBs are not going to perform up to their current rookie value - and the poll clearly supports that.  Wouldn’t it have some value to try to figure out which of those guys are considered the most questionable and offer up alternatives that could possibly be better choices?

 

[-OZ-]

And can just as easily be wrong.

Technically, no. It's impossible for the question "all 8 or the best WR" to be right if any of the individual assessments (X RB vs. Y WR) are wrong.

And none of those individual questions has to be wrong for the "all 8 over the best wr" to be wrong. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Technically, no. It's impossible for the question "all 8 or the best WR" to be right if any of the individual assessments (X RB vs. Y WR) are wrong.

And none of those individual questions has to be wrong for the "all 8 over the best wr" to be wrong. 

It’s wrong if the performance doesn’t meet or exceed the value of the pick, while in the meantime one or more of the top WRs surpass that performance and they acquire greater value.  In my opinion, it is completely unreasonable to expect all 8 of the top RBs to outperform the top WRs.  Hence my position that the RBs are overvalued.

And I admit that when it all shakes out that I could be wrong.  But that shouldn’t preclude investigating alternatives.  

.

 

[Bronco Billy]

After 138 votes:

Johnson 55.8%

Penny 34.1%

Freeman 31.9%

Michel 31.2%

Jones 24.6%

Chubb 16.7%

Guice 12.3%

No busts 4.3%

Barkley 4.3%