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Willy Taveras - I can steal 100 bases (1 Viewer)

Eephus

Eephus

Footballguy
From Dayton Daily News:

Willy Taveras can do the math.-Only 533 late appearances last year.-Only a .251 batting average last year.-Only a .302 on-base average last year.And still he stole 68 bases for the Colorado Rockies.Taveras, newest leadoff hitter for the Cincinnati Reds, doesn’t change expressions when he says, “I can steal 100 bases this year.”That’s because Taveras believes he should get 700 plate appearances this year. He also believes he can hit .300 and raise his on-base average to .350.“Do all that and, yes, I can see steal 100 bases,” he said.
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He's playing for a manager who's never really valued OBP at the top of the order, so he might leadoff everyday and get the green light. Spring is the time for optimism but his career OBP is .331. If he can get on base and stay healthy, he should be able to exceed his 2008 total of 68 SBs.Yahoo ranks him at #188 which seems kind of low for a guy who led a fantasy scoring category by a percentage proportional to Ryan Howard's lead in HRs. I'm not claiming he's anything close to a good major league player, but no other mid round pick could win you a fantasy category all by himself.
 
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Willy's career OBP is comparable to Jose Reyes, Vince Coleman & Maury Wills.

He has no business leading off for a professional baseball team but I'm just sayin'...

 
HellToupee said:
He has a better chance of swiping 125 then finishing with a .350obp
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He had a .367 OBP in 2007 without any significant home/away split. I've already gone way beyond logic in pimping Taveras in this thread, but Bill James' projection of .282/2/77/29 w/ 56 steals is definitely within reach.The Dusty Baker factor shouldn't be underestimated. I like Dusty but he's prone to massive blindspots when it comes to speedy outfielders and worthless utility infielders. He's just irrational enough to give Taveras 700 PAs. It's not like there's a ton of competition in CF. Bruce seems better suited for a corner. Norris Hopper has a great name but is AAAA at best. Laynce Nix has played some Center but gets on base less than Taveras. Taveras' pursuit of a worthless milestone could sell a few tickets in August and September.
 
Eephus said:
HellToupee said:
He has a better chance of swiping 125 then finishing with a .350obp
Click to expand...
He had a .367 OBP in 2007 without any significant home/away split. I've already gone way beyond logic in pimping Taveras in this thread, but Bill James' projection of .282/2/77/29 w/ 56 steals is definitely within reach.The Dusty Baker factor shouldn't be underestimated. I like Dusty but he's prone to massive blindspots when it comes to speedy outfielders and worthless utility infielders. He's just irrational enough to give Taveras 700 PAs. It's not like there's a ton of competition in CF. Bruce seems better suited for a corner. Norris Hopper has a great name but is AAAA at best. Laynce Nix has played some Center but gets on base less than Taveras. Taveras' pursuit of a worthless milestone could sell a few tickets in August and September.
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I agree with your point, but I think you're missing the boat on which outfielders should be considered. Chris Dickerson and Jerry Hairston Jr. (when he isn't in left) are the people pushing him for centerfield ABs. Being a better option than Nix/Hopper/Bruce doesn't really have much to do with it. Even Jacque Jones seems to be more of a consideration for center than those guys.
 
FWIW, his PECOTA mean has him stealing 40 bases in 384 PA with a .282 BA and a .336 OBP....averaged over 700 PA that's 73 SBs and PECOTA is usually fairly conservative in SB. BP actually thinks he'll play 60% of the time for 454 PA and 48 SBs.

The one guy that surprises me though is McClouth who they think 2008 wasn't out of the norm (they have him as the 8th best OF in both AVG and OBP formats). Basically they'll think he'll reproduce last years numbers which I don't think a lot of people are expecting.

 
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cheese said:
Eephus said:
HellToupee said:
He has a better chance of swiping 125 then finishing with a .350obp
Click to expand...
He had a .367 OBP in 2007 without any significant home/away split. I've already gone way beyond logic in pimping Taveras in this thread, but Bill James' projection of .282/2/77/29 w/ 56 steals is definitely within reach.The Dusty Baker factor shouldn't be underestimated. I like Dusty but he's prone to massive blindspots when it comes to speedy outfielders and worthless utility infielders. He's just irrational enough to give Taveras 700 PAs. It's not like there's a ton of competition in CF. Bruce seems better suited for a corner. Norris Hopper has a great name but is AAAA at best. Laynce Nix has played some Center but gets on base less than Taveras. Taveras' pursuit of a worthless milestone could sell a few tickets in August and September.
Click to expand...
I agree with your point, but I think you're missing the boat on which outfielders should be considered. Chris Dickerson and Jerry Hairston Jr. (when he isn't in left) are the people pushing him for centerfield ABs. Being a better option than Nix/Hopper/Bruce doesn't really have much to do with it. Even Jacque Jones seems to be more of a consideration for center than those guys.
Click to expand...
Aside from Bruce, the Reds have a bunch of players who are better suited for 4th OF options. The problem is they have slots in both CF and LF to fill. Dickerson is the most interesting option both in RL and fantasy terms. His minor league resume suggests his 2008 MLB numbers are a fluke. If he can keep his K rate from cratering, he brings some potential as a cut-rate power/speed guy. I hope for his sake, he can hit Major League lefties.Hairston Jr. and Jacque Jones are both Dusty guys from the Cubs days. Baker is capable of falling in love with either of them but they'll be 33 and 34 respectively by Memorial Day. My guess would be some kind of platoon situation with either Dickerson/Jones or Taveras/Jones. Hairston Jr. will play the role of Neifi Perez.
 
Eephus said:
cheese said:
Eephus said:
HellToupee said:
He has a better chance of swiping 125 then finishing with a .350obp
Click to expand...
He had a .367 OBP in 2007 without any significant home/away split. I've already gone way beyond logic in pimping Taveras in this thread, but Bill James' projection of .282/2/77/29 w/ 56 steals is definitely within reach.The Dusty Baker factor shouldn't be underestimated. I like Dusty but he's prone to massive blindspots when it comes to speedy outfielders and worthless utility infielders. He's just irrational enough to give Taveras 700 PAs. It's not like there's a ton of competition in CF. Bruce seems better suited for a corner. Norris Hopper has a great name but is AAAA at best. Laynce Nix has played some Center but gets on base less than Taveras. Taveras' pursuit of a worthless milestone could sell a few tickets in August and September.
Click to expand...
I agree with your point, but I think you're missing the boat on which outfielders should be considered. Chris Dickerson and Jerry Hairston Jr. (when he isn't in left) are the people pushing him for centerfield ABs. Being a better option than Nix/Hopper/Bruce doesn't really have much to do with it. Even Jacque Jones seems to be more of a consideration for center than those guys.
Click to expand...
Aside from Bruce, the Reds have a bunch of players who are better suited for 4th OF options. The problem is they have slots in both CF and LF to fill. Dickerson is the most interesting option both in RL and fantasy terms. His minor league resume suggests his 2008 MLB numbers are a fluke. If he can keep his K rate from cratering, he brings some potential as a cut-rate power/speed guy. I hope for his sake, he can hit Major League lefties.Hairston Jr. and Jacque Jones are both Dusty guys from the Cubs days. Baker is capable of falling in love with either of them but they'll be 33 and 34 respectively by Memorial Day. My guess would be some kind of platoon situation with either Dickerson/Jones or Taveras/Jones. Hairston Jr. will play the role of Neifi Perez.
Click to expand...
It makes no sense to me for Dickerson to be the guy platooning with Jones given that they are both lefties who can't hit lefties, but I guess we'll see. The only point I was trying to make is that it is an outfield crowded with guys who can play centerfield and it seemed like you were naming the 1 who can't (Bruce) and a couple of guys who are unlikely to make the team or play even if they do. I still think the opening day roster contains Dickerson, Taveras, Hairston, and Jones. Thats four guys who could get at least some of their ABs in center. That alone makes me wonder how Taveras will get so many ABs.
 
cheese said:
Eephus said:
cheese said:
Eephus said:
HellToupee said:
He has a better chance of swiping 125 then finishing with a .350obp
Click to expand...
He had a .367 OBP in 2007 without any significant home/away split. I've already gone way beyond logic in pimping Taveras in this thread, but Bill James' projection of .282/2/77/29 w/ 56 steals is definitely within reach.The Dusty Baker factor shouldn't be underestimated. I like Dusty but he's prone to massive blindspots when it comes to speedy outfielders and worthless utility infielders. He's just irrational enough to give Taveras 700 PAs. It's not like there's a ton of competition in CF. Bruce seems better suited for a corner. Norris Hopper has a great name but is AAAA at best. Laynce Nix has played some Center but gets on base less than Taveras. Taveras' pursuit of a worthless milestone could sell a few tickets in August and September.
Click to expand...
I agree with your point, but I think you're missing the boat on which outfielders should be considered. Chris Dickerson and Jerry Hairston Jr. (when he isn't in left) are the people pushing him for centerfield ABs. Being a better option than Nix/Hopper/Bruce doesn't really have much to do with it. Even Jacque Jones seems to be more of a consideration for center than those guys.
Click to expand...
Aside from Bruce, the Reds have a bunch of players who are better suited for 4th OF options. The problem is they have slots in both CF and LF to fill. Dickerson is the most interesting option both in RL and fantasy terms. His minor league resume suggests his 2008 MLB numbers are a fluke. If he can keep his K rate from cratering, he brings some potential as a cut-rate power/speed guy. I hope for his sake, he can hit Major League lefties.Hairston Jr. and Jacque Jones are both Dusty guys from the Cubs days. Baker is capable of falling in love with either of them but they'll be 33 and 34 respectively by Memorial Day. My guess would be some kind of platoon situation with either Dickerson/Jones or Taveras/Jones. Hairston Jr. will play the role of Neifi Perez.
Click to expand...
It makes no sense to me for Dickerson to be the guy platooning with Jones given that they are both lefties who can't hit lefties, but I guess we'll see. The only point I was trying to make is that it is an outfield crowded with guys who can play centerfield and it seemed like you were naming the 1 who can't (Bruce) and a couple of guys who are unlikely to make the team or play even if they do. I still think the opening day roster contains Dickerson, Taveras, Hairston, and Jones. Thats four guys who could get at least some of their ABs in center. That alone makes me wonder how Taveras will get so many ABs.
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sorry, I meant Dickerson/Hairston Jr. I think you're right about the four OF who will be on the opening day roster along with Bruce. Dusty has some flexibility in that any of the five (plus some others) could play in Center without embarrassing themselves. Baker hasn't exactly been Earl Weaver than it comes to platooning. He seems to manage from his gut when filling out the lineup card. I wouldn't put it past him to bring in Corey Patterson, Kenny Lofton or Marvin Benard to further muddy the waters.I hate having one dimensional guys like Taveras or Pierre taking up an OF spot. Taveras isn't under the radar coming off a 68 SB season, but I'd consider a flyer if he's available past the 12th round of so and my power slots are filled.
 
In other news, Matt Kemp says he can go 40/40, although he only has 35 homers and 51 steals in 305 career games. :lmao:

 
Mr. Pickles said:
Why do I get the feeling that Eephus actually believes this?
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In 1986 Vince Coleman stole 107 bases while hitting .232/.301/.280. so getting on base frequently isn't necessarily a pre-requisite. It helps of course but as long as you're fast and have a manager who will give you 650+ ABs and the green light to steal, there's a chance. I've watched a lot of Dustyball when he was in SF. I have no idea what he's thinking but there's not much he could do that would surprise me.I don't think it's going to happen but it's probably no less likely than Matt Kemp going for 40/40.
 
Eephus said:
Mr. Pickles said:
Why do I get the feeling that Eephus actually believes this?
Click to expand...
In 1986 Vince Coleman stole 107 bases while hitting .232/.301/.280. so getting on base frequently isn't necessarily a pre-requisite. It helps of course but as long as you're fast and have a manager who will give you 650+ ABs and the green light to steal, there's a chance. I've watched a lot of Dustyball when he was in SF. I have no idea what he's thinking but there's not much he could do that would surprise me.I don't think it's going to happen but it's probably no less likely than Matt Kemp going for 40/40.
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That's ok, Dusty doesn't either. I'd be surprised if he's ever even watching the game.
 
MAC_32 said:
Eephus said:
Mr. Pickles said:
Why do I get the feeling that Eephus actually believes this?
Click to expand...
In 1986 Vince Coleman stole 107 bases while hitting .232/.301/.280. so getting on base frequently isn't necessarily a pre-requisite. It helps of course but as long as you're fast and have a manager who will give you 650+ ABs and the green light to steal, there's a chance. I've watched a lot of Dustyball when he was in SF. I have no idea what he's thinking but there's not much he could do that would surprise me.I don't think it's going to happen but it's probably no less likely than Matt Kemp going for 40/40.
Click to expand...
That's ok, Dusty doesn't either. I'd be surprised if he's ever even watching the game.
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:tumbleweed:
 
Don't you guys go anywhere. I plan to put on a hitting display.

I bought a hundred of these. One for every base I'm gonna steal. Excuse me while I take my first step toward the Hall of Fame

 
His approach at the plate is about 100X more patient than normal and his OBP reflects it big time. Its early, but if he keeps taking this many pitches/walks, his SB total could get huge. On the down side, he had several oppurtunities to run yesterday and never did. Looper is VERY hard to run on though.

 
Eephus said:
Current pace = 31Carl Crawford stole more bases in a game than Willy has all season
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But if that one caught stealing was converted into a SB, he'd be one pace for 37.And don't even get me started on all of the foul tips Joey Votto has hit while Willie was in motion.
 
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