Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
I am dead last in hitting. :dead:
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WIS MMXI: Back to the Future Edition- Draft & Season Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
DICE UP AND RUNNING!
Some interesting numbers in there. DougB's league worst 4.86 ERA is a 4.44 DICE, for example.
Some interesting numbers in there. DougB's league worst 4.86 ERA is a 4.44 DICE, for example.
SoCalBroncoFan
Footballguy
Honestly, I am just constantly looking at my OBP and SLG for my hitters, as well as PA's.
WIth my pitchers, I am looking at WHIP, HR/9 and K/9. As long as those stay in the good range, I should have a decent SIM.
Currently, I have 4 relievers with solid WHIPS: Frieri at 0.90, Mujica at 0.857, Sanches at 0.366 and Qualls at 1.29. Webb and Kuo should also finish up strongly, and I definitely expect Evan Meek to be solid.
Starters are doing alright, Hamels with a 1.21 WHIP, Cliff Lee at 1.02, Chris Young at 1.05 and Mat Latos at 1.26. I expect Hamels and Latos to get better and hope Young will stay relatively healthy and not end up with a WHIP over 1.20.
Hitting-wise, I am solid at C (Ianetta), 1B (Konerko), 3B (Chipper), SS (Escobar), and OF (Bay, Coghlan and Drew). 2B and back-up C are holes right now. Outside of those starters I still have Ryan Roberts and Callaspo putting up solid numbers. Brett Gardner has been horrible. Hoping Ackley will get called up by Seattle and put in some meaningful time at 2B as Blake Dewitt is my only other option there. Maybe Roberts will get eligibility there and I can platoon him with someone else...
If anyone has an extra 2B, I have pitching and a little bit of hitting to trade.
WIth my pitchers, I am looking at WHIP, HR/9 and K/9. As long as those stay in the good range, I should have a decent SIM.
Currently, I have 4 relievers with solid WHIPS: Frieri at 0.90, Mujica at 0.857, Sanches at 0.366 and Qualls at 1.29. Webb and Kuo should also finish up strongly, and I definitely expect Evan Meek to be solid.
Starters are doing alright, Hamels with a 1.21 WHIP, Cliff Lee at 1.02, Chris Young at 1.05 and Mat Latos at 1.26. I expect Hamels and Latos to get better and hope Young will stay relatively healthy and not end up with a WHIP over 1.20.
Hitting-wise, I am solid at C (Ianetta), 1B (Konerko), 3B (Chipper), SS (Escobar), and OF (Bay, Coghlan and Drew). 2B and back-up C are holes right now. Outside of those starters I still have Ryan Roberts and Callaspo putting up solid numbers. Brett Gardner has been horrible. Hoping Ackley will get called up by Seattle and put in some meaningful time at 2B as Blake Dewitt is my only other option there. Maybe Roberts will get eligibility there and I can platoon him with someone else...
If anyone has an extra 2B, I have pitching and a little bit of hitting to trade.
Doug B
Footballguy
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
DICE is intended to show a pitcher's effectiveness independent of defense. The stats taken account here are HR, BB, HBP, K and IP; which are supposed to be the stats that a pitcher can control. So, your ERA is 4.86, but your defense-independent ERA is 4.44. Meaning, your pitching is better than the ERA shows. (i.e. you've had some bad luck/defense)'Doug B said:'Notorious T.R.E. said:¿Que?
On the flip side, Boubacarow has the opposite going on with an ERA of 3.52 and a DICE of 4.13. So, he maybe should be a little more considered about his pitching than ERA might tell him.
I'm kind of surprised that we can see such a high fluctuation on some of these...more than half a run a game is quite a bit!
belljr
Footballguy
Ok I'm a little slow so le me see if Iunderstand.Jon Garland has a 3.60 ERA but a 5.05 DICE - did you mean concerned above (not considered ?) So this means that a couple errors is causing his ERA to be lower but its "true measure" is a 5.05 so he's technically worse than his ERA is showing.DICE is intended to show a pitcher's effectiveness independent of defense. The stats taken account here are HR, BB, HBP, K and IP; which are supposed to be the stats that a pitcher can control. So, your ERA is 4.86, but your defense-independent ERA is 4.44. Meaning, your pitching is better than the ERA shows. (i.e. you've had some bad luck/defense)'Doug B said:'Notorious T.R.E. said:
On the flip side, Boubacarow has the opposite going on with an ERA of 3.52 and a DICE of 4.13. So, he maybe should be a little more considered about his pitching than ERA might tell him.
I'm kind of surprised that we can see such a high fluctuation on some of these...more than half a run a game is quite a bit!
Where as Mike Leake has a 4.40 ERA but a 4.08 means I'm actually pitching better than my ERA shows ?
cheese
Footballguy
Yes, but its a little simpler than that normally. Usually, pitchers with high BABIP are the guys that show up here as being unlucky because either balls are finding holes for hits or guys just aren't getting to them defensively. A bad play that is actually ruled an error is essentially excluded from both DICE and ERA so it shouldn't be a big factor. Also, strand rate will play a role here. Without looking it up, I'm guessing that Garland has managed to strand a lot of runners.Ok I'm a little slow so le me see if Iunderstand.Jon Garland has a 3.60 ERA but a 5.05 DICE - did you mean concerned above (not considered ?) So this means that a couple errors is causing his ERA to be lower but its "true measure" is a 5.05 so he's technically worse than his ERA is showing.DICE is intended to show a pitcher's effectiveness independent of defense. The stats taken account here are HR, BB, HBP, K and IP; which are supposed to be the stats that a pitcher can control. So, your ERA is 4.86, but your defense-independent ERA is 4.44. Meaning, your pitching is better than the ERA shows. (i.e. you've had some bad luck/defense)'Doug B said:'Notorious T.R.E. said:
On the flip side, Boubacarow has the opposite going on with an ERA of 3.52 and a DICE of 4.13. So, he maybe should be a little more considered about his pitching than ERA might tell him.
I'm kind of surprised that we can see such a high fluctuation on some of these...more than half a run a game is quite a bit!
Where as Mike Leake has a 4.40 ERA but a 4.08 means I'm actually pitching better than my ERA shows ?
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Yes, but keep in mind hits aren't even used unless the hit is a homerun. Garland likely walks too many and gives up a lot of homeruns without striking out many. That's a recipe for a bad DICE.Yes, but its a little simpler than that normally. Usually, pitchers with high BABIP are the guys that show up here as being unlucky because either balls are finding holes for hits or guys just aren't getting to them defensively. A bad play that is actually ruled an error is essentially excluded from both DICE and ERA so it shouldn't be a big factor. Also, strand rate will play a role here. Without looking it up, I'm guessing that Garland has managed to strand a lot of runners.Ok I'm a little slow so le me see if Iunderstand.Jon Garland has a 3.60 ERA but a 5.05 DICE - did you mean concerned above (not considered ?) So this means that a couple errors is causing his ERA to be lower but its "true measure" is a 5.05 so he's technically worse than his ERA is showing.DICE is intended to show a pitcher's effectiveness independent of defense. The stats taken account here are HR, BB, HBP, K and IP; which are supposed to be the stats that a pitcher can control. So, your ERA is 4.86, but your defense-independent ERA is 4.44. Meaning, your pitching is better than the ERA shows. (i.e. you've had some bad luck/defense)'Doug B said:'Notorious T.R.E. said:
On the flip side, Boubacarow has the opposite going on with an ERA of 3.52 and a DICE of 4.13. So, he maybe should be a little more considered about his pitching than ERA might tell him.
I'm kind of surprised that we can see such a high fluctuation on some of these...more than half a run a game is quite a bit!
Where as Mike Leake has a 4.40 ERA but a 4.08 means I'm actually pitching better than my ERA shows ?
Eephus
Footballguy
How does DICE compare to ERC? I've used ERC in the past for ranking RPs but only as a single metric that encompasses Ks and HRs.
I've never seen the devs acknowledge that the sim uses advanced pitching stats directly. As I understand it, it processes the K and BB probabilities first and HRs that aren't HRs because of park effects end up as doubles and triples. I suspect they're limited by the lack of data for historical players so XBH% are normalized for pitchers. Maybe jfranco can add something extra.
I've never seen the devs acknowledge that the sim uses advanced pitching stats directly. As I understand it, it processes the K and BB probabilities first and HRs that aren't HRs because of park effects end up as doubles and triples. I suspect they're limited by the lack of data for historical players so XBH% are normalized for pitchers. Maybe jfranco can add something extra.
belljr
Footballguy
4 dingers is not helping him.Yes, but keep in mind hits aren't even used unless the hit is a homerun. Garland likely walks too many and gives up a lot of homeruns without striking out many. That's a recipe for a bad DICE.Yes, but its a little simpler than that normally. Usually, pitchers with high BABIP are the guys that show up here as being unlucky because either balls are finding holes for hits or guys just aren't getting to them defensively. A bad play that is actually ruled an error is essentially excluded from both DICE and ERA so it shouldn't be a big factor. Also, strand rate will play a role here. Without looking it up, I'm guessing that Garland has managed to strand a lot of runners.Ok I'm a little slow so le me see if Iunderstand.Jon Garland has a 3.60 ERA but a 5.05 DICE - did you mean concerned above (not considered ?) So this means that a couple errors is causing his ERA to be lower but its "true measure" is a 5.05 so he's technically worse than his ERA is showing.DICE is intended to show a pitcher's effectiveness independent of defense. The stats taken account here are HR, BB, HBP, K and IP; which are supposed to be the stats that a pitcher can control. So, your ERA is 4.86, but your defense-independent ERA is 4.44. Meaning, your pitching is better than the ERA shows. (i.e. you've had some bad luck/defense)'Doug B said:'Notorious T.R.E. said:
On the flip side, Boubacarow has the opposite going on with an ERA of 3.52 and a DICE of 4.13. So, he maybe should be a little more considered about his pitching than ERA might tell him.
I'm kind of surprised that we can see such a high fluctuation on some of these...more than half a run a game is quite a bit!
Where as Mike Leake has a 4.40 ERA but a 4.08 means I'm actually pitching better than my ERA shows ?
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Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
DICE = 3 + (13HR +3(BB+HBP)-2K)/IP
ERC = (((H + BB + HBP)×PTB)/(BFP×IP))×9 − 0.56
BFP is batters faced and PTB = 0.89×(1.255×(H − HR) + 4×HR) + 0.56×(BB + HBP − IBB)
So, ERC has a lot more variables involved and as I undestand it some of those weights can vary based on people's own preferences. Most notable difference besides the plug numbers is that ERC uses hits allowed. DICE considered a batted ball being a hit or an as a product of luck more or less.
DIPS is a variation of DICE that involves calculators that include ground ball and fly ball percentage.
ERC = (((H + BB + HBP)×PTB)/(BFP×IP))×9 − 0.56
BFP is batters faced and PTB = 0.89×(1.255×(H − HR) + 4×HR) + 0.56×(BB + HBP − IBB)
So, ERC has a lot more variables involved and as I undestand it some of those weights can vary based on people's own preferences. Most notable difference besides the plug numbers is that ERC uses hits allowed. DICE considered a batted ball being a hit or an as a product of luck more or less.
DIPS is a variation of DICE that involves calculators that include ground ball and fly ball percentage.
Eephus
Footballguy
SoCalBroncoFan
Footballguy
Um, yeah, I just like to watch baseball.
They didn't tell me math would be involved.
They didn't tell me math would be involved.
Eephus
Footballguy
One approach I've been mulling over is to use the mid-season Fantrax standings like Harrrrankings. The top six teams at the All-Star break would be placed into pool A, numbers 7-12 in pool B, etc.The divisions would consist of one team from each of the four pools.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
we could let the top 6 teams at the end draft their divisions 1 team at a team (non-serpentine)...makes there be a small advantage to doing well in this thing... or is that too much?
Northern Voice
Footballguy
#22 with a bullet 
the moops
Footballguy
I saw that. Forgot about it though.Not sure I want to do that. Decent offer though, but I suppose I gotta hold on to Hanley for now.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
I hate Houston's stadium...
Braun's hit two shots that would have been homeruns in every other park in baseball (except Boston and Houston's)...
Braun's hit two shots that would have been homeruns in every other park in baseball (except Boston and Houston's)...
scoobus
Footballguy
Well if you have any counter-offers I'm all ears.And that goes for everybody, start offering me some trades!
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Update: Only my catchers and Tulo can hit. FML
jfranco77
Footballguy
I don't understand 100% how it works. But there are other people who do. Check out this thread:http://whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=431232&ThreadID=9280955#l_9280955K's don't actually matter as much as you think It basically goes walk -> hit/out ... and then if it's an out, it could be a K or an error or a regular out. Once it's a hit, it goes hit -> HR/notHR ... and then there are multipliers based on the pitcher's era and ERA (earned run average and the time frame he played in) as well as park factors, the hitter's speed, etc.
jfranco77
Footballguy
My team is certainly interesting so far.
Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL. Matt Joyce is actually killing the ball. Gaby Sanchez has been great too - 294/381/461.
Alfonso Soriano has 11 HRs in 101 AB and his line is 267/286/634. Zorilla has a Soriano-like slash line of 260/316/587 and Lind is at 282/314/464. Billy Beane hates my team but Ruben Amaro loves it.
On the flip side, Carlos Santana is hitting .191. Alexi Casilla is hitting .190. Brignac is hitting .212 with a .212 SLG.
Trumbo is getting a lot more PT than expected with Morales out forever. Span and Fowler are about what I expected they would be. So I basically have a bunch of great outfielders and first basemen but my 3B/SS situation is a disaster and my catcher situation is bad too (but hopefully will get better)
Too early to tell on the pitching side, but Humber has been a pleasant surprise and my bullpen "aces" have been horrible (Sale, Jansen, Parnell)
Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL. Matt Joyce is actually killing the ball. Gaby Sanchez has been great too - 294/381/461.
Alfonso Soriano has 11 HRs in 101 AB and his line is 267/286/634. Zorilla has a Soriano-like slash line of 260/316/587 and Lind is at 282/314/464. Billy Beane hates my team but Ruben Amaro loves it.
On the flip side, Carlos Santana is hitting .191. Alexi Casilla is hitting .190. Brignac is hitting .212 with a .212 SLG.
Trumbo is getting a lot more PT than expected with Morales out forever. Span and Fowler are about what I expected they would be. So I basically have a bunch of great outfielders and first basemen but my 3B/SS situation is a disaster and my catcher situation is bad too (but hopefully will get better)
Too early to tell on the pitching side, but Humber has been a pleasant surprise and my bullpen "aces" have been horrible (Sale, Jansen, Parnell)
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
Lillibridge doing pretty well in a part time role.Jason Pridie too.Rich Thompson and Al ALburquerque are among the pitching highlights I guess. Also, no one grabbed Matt Lindstrom?
scoobus
Footballguy
34 . 03 ( 795 ) HoosFirst Matt Lindstrom P PROXY eephus
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
I guess I (TRE) will have to fix that when I'm (TRE is) sober.
RnR
Footballguy
What did you (TRE) do to have to break out TRE's favorite mustached username?
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
Circumvented the language filter and alluded to having relations with dead, BBQ'd animals.'RnR said:
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
I like to think I was nipped for being unfunny.Classic sig there...forgot about it.Well, by now you should know that JB takes his BBQ very seriously. That's someone's BBQ, guy.Also, love the throwback sig.
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
Lindstrom added to HOOS roster. His pitching is looking pretty solid actually. Looks like HOOS and RNR haven't signed up to the WIS league yet. You're missing out on all of the fun guys.
Dan Gladden's Mustache
Footballguy
Better start working the phones.
scoobus
Footballguy
Greco
Footballguy
Don't think one of them is at 2B this year. I stand corrected. According to baseball reference they're all at 2B. I swear I looked it up on yahoo and he hadn't had one AB at 2B. Guess not.Bill Hall has 111
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Spartans Rule
Footballguy
.179 is
A. The combined isolated power of my two first offensive picks (Pedroia & Morneau)
B. My expected winning percentage in this thing
C. Both
A. The combined isolated power of my two first offensive picks (Pedroia & Morneau)
B. My expected winning percentage in this thing
C. Both
oso diablo
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
At least we know he will take one for the team. The guy's got heart.
oso diablo
Footballguy
true. unfortunately, the WIS sim algorithm has no heart.'the moops said:At least we know he will take one for the team. The guy's got heart.
the moops
Footballguy
true. unfortunately, the WIS sim algorithm has no heart.'the moops said:At least we know he will take one for the team. The guy's got heart.
The guy wont see the field for my team.
RnR
Footballguy
Already shipped him to AAA. I'd be pissed if I were Mazzaro. He stays in there to take one for the team, and they reward it by putting him on the next bus out of town. You know that ERA/WHIP are going to hurt him in his future attempts to land a spot on a big league club.'the moops said:At least we know he will take one for the team. The guy's got heart.'oso diablo said:
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