Woodrow's Mock Draft Version 1.0 (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

With the draft evidently deep at TE, do you really think the Bengals will spend their 1st round pick on one? Admittedly, they have a glaring deficiency at the position, but I think the D-Line is more of a need here.

They could still take a TE in the 2nd and vastly improve on the likes of Schobel, Kelly, and Stewart.

I think the Bengals have done a great job righting the ship and are at the point where they can really afford to take the "BPA", so for that reason you could be right that a TE might in fact not be atop their value board when they pick.But this TE class has the look of being special, and it's the one offensive need the team has. But depending on how Byrd, Pope and Marcedes Lewis perform at the Combine, these TE projections are going to shuffle around a LOT. The only thing I'm reasonably comfortable with is that Vernon Davis is going to be a very high pick.

 

[BigTex]

good observation on carpenter being a good fit in DAL...

it seems like the biggest needs in DAL (not necessarily in order)...

LB... ware looks like future star at weakside 3-4 OLB, despite ups & downs... but ILB bradie james is very inconsistent... undersized & broken down dat nguyen's retirement is imminent... i think rookie second rounder kevin burnett had been shifted from OLB to ILB, but he was injured & the team doesn't have a good sense of his capabilities there... of the personell currently on roster, fujita is probably the best option at stronside OLB (or al singleton if healthy?)... carpenter would obviously be a massive upgrade there...

FS... probably not one good enough to draft here (assuming huff is gone, or he could be mighty tempting)... bing could carry a grade that high at that point in draft, but he is a more natural SS... he could be a monster FS IF he had the requisite cover skills (likely fast enough... he was prep sprinter at LB poly)... BUT THAT IS A BIG IF...

OL... this was a huge problem last year... getting flozell adams back will help a lot, but allen & rivera (chronic back problems taking toll?) looked old, al johnson & gurode are not blue chip, elite centers, & petitti may be too slow footed to be anything more than a backup

I'd say that right now, Carpenter is the most likely choice for Dallas at #18. Given that he seems tailor made to be a 3-4 OLB, Parcells' strong history of drafting defensive front seven players in the first round, and Dallas' need for more linebackers, he seems rather likely.The second most likely guy to go to Dallas at 18, imo, is Gabe Watson. Particularly if Glover is traded as expected. Dallas' only legit NT is 30+ year old Jason Ferguson. Parcells prefers to run a dline rotation. He needs another big body. Dallas was seen talking with Watson for quite awhile at the Senior Bowl. These facts, coupled with Parcells' history of drafting front seven guys early, and you have another likely pick at 18.

Regarding the FS need. Dallas clearly needs an upgrade here. They gave up way too many long pass plays. But let me ask you, is a rookie going to understand coverage responsibilities and diagnose offenses better than existing players or an experienced free agent? Probably not. So if Dallas does upgrade this position, its much more likely to be from free agency. There are several experienced free safeties expected to be available. Dallas has enough cap room to make some moves. This is a likely spot for a mid priced guy.

O-Line is much the same. At least as far as starters are concerned. Is a rookie going to come in and be better than Rivera? Or Allen? You might be able to argue that a McNeil might be better than a second-year Petitti. But how sure are you of that? For 2006, the more likely course of action at RT is another mid-priced FA like Tom Ashworth. Dallas then goes Oline in round 2 and/or 3. One last point here on the O-line. Its worth noting that Parcells' teams have never drafted a tackle in round 1 in his 19 years as a head coach.

The final guy that Dallas might draft at 18 that may surprise some is Vernon Davis were he to fall. Yes, they have Witten. But Parcells loves TEs and imagine the fun defenses would have trying to defend both of them.

Lastly on the Cowboys. I actually think they would be better off dropping back into the 30 to 50 range. There are a lot of guys like Lawson and Wimbley who would make excellent OLBs, lots of good Olinemen, and maybe a safety or two would represent good value in this range. I'm not conviced that the value is there at 18 for Dallas.

Woodrow, your pick of DeMarco Ryans at to New England is interesting. No question that he fits their "player" mold regardless of measurables. But even so, I have a hard time seeing a 220 pound linebacker being effective in a 3-4. All of the current NE LBs are at least 250, IIRC. Thats a big difference in size to overcome. No question that he will get bigger. But big enough to play 3-4?

Overall, Woodrow, lots of good things to read and consider.

Good analysis but don't be surprised if they draft S. Holmes. Last year the Cowboys went mostly defensive in the draft. Last year they said they'd go offensive in the 2006 draft. If this is true I could see them taking S. Holmes at 1.18 and the the OLine after that.

 

[KCC]

Great job, Woodrow. Thanks for giving us something like this to fill the football void.

I heard the other day that Vince Young was considering not throwing at the combine. Anyone else hear this? And, if so, wouldn't he take a major fall down most teams draft boards? If so, I was wondering where you think he might land.

Edit: Just saw the Young not throwing at the combine thread. Still wondering if you see him going early to the Jets at 1.04 if that happens.

 

[Jason Wood]

Great job, Woodrow. Thanks for giving us something like this to fill the football void.

I heard the other day that Vince Young was considering not throwing at the combine. Anyone else hear this? And, if so, wouldn't he take a major fall down most teams draft boards? If so, I was wondering where you think he might land.

Edit: Just saw the Young not throwing at the combine thread. Still wondering if you see him going early to the Jets at 1.04 if that happens.

Young not throwing at the Combine won't hurt him. He HAS to throw at his private workout for scouts and that's when he'll either lock up a top 4 spot or fall some. But one can assume he's got the next six weeks or so to work on nothing but this private workout now, which includes familiar surroundings, good tutors and most importantly, he'll be able to throw to receivers of his choosing. It's tough for top prospets to not knock these workouts out of the park. What will be interesting is whether he grants further workouts that aren't run by his handlers, a la Alex Smith last year.

 

[corpcow]

1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP

The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.

Actually, what the Giants need are HEALTHY 'backers. They have plenty of (relatively young) talent at the LB position - Emmons is the only one over 30. Pierce, Torbor, and Griesen are all young and Chase Blackburn showed promise before his injury. My guess is that they're hoping one of the top CB prospects falls to them. They could also use a great DT but not sure that anyone will be there at 25.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP

The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.

Actually, what the Giants need are HEALTHY 'backers. They have plenty of (relatively young) talent at the LB position - Emmons is the only one over 30. Pierce, Torbor, and Griesen are all young and Chase Blackburn showed promise before his injury. My guess is that they're hoping one of the top CB prospects falls to them. They could also use a great DT but not sure that anyone will be there at 25.

Fair enough cow...but Pierce aside [who's a stud], I don't honestly think Torbor, Griesen or Blackburn have the kind of talent that would cause the Giants from passing up on one of the LBs in a very strong class. Time will tell!

 

[Bloom]

1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP

The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.

Actually, what the Giants need are HEALTHY 'backers. They have plenty of (relatively young) talent at the LB position - Emmons is the only one over 30. Pierce, Torbor, and Griesen are all young and Chase Blackburn showed promise before his injury. My guess is that they're hoping one of the top CB prospects falls to them. They could also use a great DT but not sure that anyone will be there at 25.

Fair enough cow...but Pierce aside [who's a stud], I don't honestly think Torbor, Griesen or Blackburn have the kind of talent that would cause the Giants from passing up on one of the LBs in a very strong class. Time will tell!

ill also toss out there that ive seen rumors that the giants might pursue julian peterson in FA.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP

The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.

Actually, what the Giants need are HEALTHY 'backers. They have plenty of (relatively young) talent at the LB position - Emmons is the only one over 30. Pierce, Torbor, and Griesen are all young and Chase Blackburn showed promise before his injury. My guess is that they're hoping one of the top CB prospects falls to them. They could also use a great DT but not sure that anyone will be there at 25.

Fair enough cow...but Pierce aside [who's a stud], I don't honestly think Torbor, Griesen or Blackburn have the kind of talent that would cause the Giants from passing up on one of the LBs in a very strong class. Time will tell!

ill also toss out there that ive seen rumors that the giants might pursue julian peterson in FA.

That would be big $$$$ tied into a position that usually doesn't warrant such spending. But stranger things have happened.

 

[bshipper]

1.24) Cincinnati Bengals -- TE Dominique Byrd, USC

It's a great TE class, with as many as six TEs possibly coming off the board in the first two rounds. Byrd outplayed [and out practiced] Marcedes Lewis at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit with the Bengals as TE is one of the few offensive positions of need.

Sorry to say this, but I hope to God this is wrong. Everyone in the world knows that the Bengal offense is solid and it is the defense that needs work. So why in the world is everyone mocking a TE in the first round? You said it yourself, the TE class is VERY DEEP this year, so why not wait. Gabe Watson, Rod Wright or Ko Simpson is a more realistic, and better, pick for the Bengals.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.24) Cincinnati Bengals -- TE Dominique Byrd, USC

It's a great TE class, with as many as six TEs possibly coming off the board in the first two rounds. Byrd outplayed [and out practiced] Marcedes Lewis at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit with the Bengals as TE is one of the few offensive positions of need.

Sorry to say this, but I hope to God this is wrong. Everyone in the world knows that the Bengal offense is solid and it is the defense that needs work. So why in the world is everyone mocking a TE in the first round? You said it yourself, the TE class is VERY DEEP this year, so why not wait. Gabe Watson, Rod Wright or Ko Simpson is a more realistic, and better, pick for the Bengals.

You're not the first person to mention this to me bshipper and you could well be right. We'll have to see how free agency progresses to in order to get a better sense for what teams needs are.

 

[bshipper]

1.24) Cincinnati Bengals -- TE Dominique Byrd, USC

It's a great TE class, with as many as six TEs possibly coming off the board in the first two rounds. Byrd outplayed [and out practiced] Marcedes Lewis at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit with the Bengals as TE is one of the few offensive positions of need.

Sorry to say this, but I hope to God this is wrong. Everyone in the world knows that the Bengal offense is solid and it is the defense that needs work. So why in the world is everyone mocking a TE in the first round? You said it yourself, the TE class is VERY DEEP this year, so why not wait. Gabe Watson, Rod Wright or Ko Simpson is a more realistic, and better, pick for the Bengals.

You're not the first person to mention this to me bshipper and you could well be right. We'll have to see how free agency progresses to in order to get a better sense for what teams needs are.

Free agency will be interesting, but I don't expect huge changes there. The Bengals have a lot of money to spend, but Marvin has never been one to go big in FA. They will focus on re-signing the OL, Jones, Steinbach and Anderson. I still expect DT to be the main need going into the draft.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I haven't seen Ko Simpson play a lot, so like you Chaos I'm not completely sold on Ko yet. However, I do have to appreciate the 100+ tackles, and the fact he was making plays on a defense without much talent around him. Personally I think it's tough for a safety to look great play in, play out when he's being asked to lead the team in tackles. I'm not a big fan of Darnell Bing, but Whitner and Blue could easily replaced Ko in my post Combine mocks once things shake out.

I think Bing might surprise you. He's a pretty amazing all-around athlete. For his size (6-2, 220), he's posted very fast 100s and 200s. He's reportedly faster now than he was in his track days. If he's not faster than Simpson, I'll be shocked. I usually don't worry too much about who's faster (tho nfl decision makers sure do), but when one guys is considerably larger and still faster (at the same position), it makes me pause. Bing was Pac 10 defensive freshman of the year. He was sophomore first team all-american. He bailed them out over and over this year with big plays at crucial times. By the numbers Simpson is a more consistent tackler, maybe he plays with better instincts. I don't know. I've seen too much of Bing and not enough of Simpson, but I did some reading on both before posting. It made me like Simpson more than I previously did, but I still think Bing has better NFL potential.

 

[softball]

Jason-Good stuff and appreciated. Fun to look at.

The only blatant guy who will not be selected is VY to the Jets. No way or how this happens. If Brick is gone and Young is there they will trade down.

The HC has come from a place where the Three time Superbowl winning QB was drafted in the 6th round. His culture is against this kind of pick, along with having dropped from the Parcells/Belichek(sp) tree that your QB throws, not runs.

If they stay put the JETS take a LB or DE over VY.

Thanks again.

 

[Jason Wood]

Jason-Good stuff and appreciated. Fun to look at.

The only blatant guy who will not be selected is VY to the Jets. No way or how this happens. If Brick is gone and Young is there they will trade down.

The HC has come from a place where the Three time Superbowl winning QB was drafted in the 6th round. His culture is against this kind of pick, along with having dropped from the Parcells/Belichek(sp) tree that your QB throws, not runs.

If they stay put the JETS take a LB or DE over VY.

Thanks again.

Hey softball...fair enough but I couldn't disagree more. First of all, I think there's a big misconception that because Brady was a 6th rounder, that all of a sudden Belichick's disciples all believe you find your franchise QB that way. Brady is a once in a generation find, regardless of where he was drafted. I would counter that Mangini understands with complete clarity the value of a) putting a young QB under center if he's your best option [as they did with Brady over Bledsoe], and b) just how important it is to secure a real difference maker at that position.Furthermore, Mangini isn't going to have a ton of say in their draft IMHO. Most coaches aren't handed that particularly 35 year olds with such little experience. He'll have input, sure, and Tannenbaum and Mangini are personal friends. But ultimately Tannenbaum and his scouts will make the call on whether VY is worth the 4th pick or not.

Lastly, to think a team [Jets or anyone] would be willing to take VY 3rd or 4th and NOT view him as a thrower belies Vince Young's potential. I've been vocal about the risks his game brings, but I also wholeheartedly believe that IF he goes as high as everyone expects, it's because teams view him as someone that can become a very good passer, not the next Mike Vick.

 

[diesel7982]

Jason-Good stuff and appreciated. Fun to look at.

The only blatant guy who will not be selected is VY to the Jets. No way or how this happens. If Brick is gone and Young is there they will trade down.

The HC has come from a place where the Three time Superbowl winning QB was drafted in the 6th round. His culture is against this kind of pick, along with having dropped from the Parcells/Belichek(sp) tree that your QB throws, not runs.

If they stay put the JETS take a LB or DE over VY.

Thanks again.

Hey softball...fair enough but I couldn't disagree more. First of all, I think there's a big misconception that because Brady was a 6th rounder, that all of a sudden Belichick's disciples all believe you find your franchise QB that way. Brady is a once in a generation find, regardless of where he was drafted. I would counter that Mangini understands with complete clarity the value of a) putting a young QB under center if he's your best option [as they did with Brady over Bledsoe], and b) just how important it is to secure a real difference maker at that position.Furthermore, Mangini isn't going to have a ton of say in their draft IMHO. Most coaches aren't handed that particularly 35 year olds with such little experience. He'll have input, sure, and Tannenbaum and Mangini are personal friends. But ultimately Tannenbaum and his scouts will make the call on whether VY is worth the 4th pick or not.

Lastly, to think a team [Jets or anyone] would be willing to take VY 3rd or 4th and NOT view him as a thrower belies Vince Young's potential. I've been vocal about the risks his game brings, but I also wholeheartedly believe that IF he goes as high as everyone expects, it's because teams view him as someone that can become a very good passer, not the next Mike Vick.

 

[Bob Magaw]

First Jason, great mock.  I agree with Bloom and love the Mangold pick much higher than he's currently projected.  I've been thinking the same way since Senior Bowl week, but didn't have the guts to come out with it.  I did that with Watson as Bloom says. 

I have a question and I've asked it about ten times here and elsewhere and never get an answer.  I read this:

1.31) Seattle Seahawks -- FS Ko Simpson, South Carolina

The way the Seahawks safeties were exposed in the Super Bowl, Simpson seems like a great fit for a team without a ton of major needs. Simpson is a 3rd year sophomore who surprised many by declaring. He's a tackling machine but showed the ability to cover when called upon. The Hawks could go in a ton of directions here, but I'm projecting a bit that Simpson will continue to gain momentum as scouts get a look at him. As a sophomore playing for South Carolina, he doesn't have the high profile as some of the other DBs carrying potential 1st day grades.

And I want more information. At least you don't have Ko in the top 20 like many do. I am not impressed with this kid. He looked very slow in his bowl game, and worse errors than Boulware's could be assigned to him for the loss. Granted he was dealing with Brad Smith, but he looked horrible against the run and pass, and he looked slow. I've seen him twice and my impression was the same both times. Joseph is the stud in that secondary.But two times is a terrible sample and bigger brains than mine are much higher on him than you are. It cannot be intangibles. He's one of the oldest players in the draft (24) and very inexperienced on top of that.

Darnell Bing, Jason Allen, Pat Watkins, Greg Blue, Donte Whitner... all of these guys have shown me better game than I have seen in Simpson. What am I missing?

I'm willing to join the crowd and consider him a first rounder (very late like you), but I have strong doubts about his size, speed, instincts, age, experience etc...

I haven't seen Ko Simpson play a lot, so like you Chaos I'm not completely sold on Ko yet. However, I do have to appreciate the 100+ tackles, and the fact he was making plays on a defense without much talent around him. Personally I think it's tough for a safety to look great play in, play out when he's being asked to lead the team in tackles. I'm not a big fan of Darnell Bing, but Whitner and Blue could easily replaced Ko in my post Combine mocks once things shake out.

I heard McNeil dropped out of the first round with his poor Senior Bowl.

Seemed slow to me, in what I saw. I'd rather see them take Ernie Sims who can tutor under Brooks for a year, and who seems real likely to go in the first round (and I don't see you having him listed).

Oline for the Bucs isn't as big of a concern as some people are making it out to be.

Very mixed reviews of McNeil post the Senior Bowl, but he's too athletic to not work his way back into the 1st round picture [in my opinion] once he has his workouts.Sims could certainly factor into the 1st round, as could Bobby Carpenter. I just don't know that I see all those LBs making it to the 1st round, regardless of grade.

I suppose. I see the Bucs though as a team that's reasonably close to at least winning the NFC -- last thing they need is some slug OT who's 2 years away (at least) from helping the team win. A guy like Sinorice Moss or Ernie Sims will fill a much bigger role not only in 2007 as step-in starters, but in 2006 as well as guys who would probably be more game ready if something happened to Brooks or Galloway.

You could well be right Cappy. It's way too early to pretend like I have any conviction in my projections...I think the Sims pick is a tad too cute for my tastes [Florida State guy replacing a Florida State legend, etc...], but it could happen.To be honest, I see the Bucs adding someone like D'Qwell Jackson in the 2nd round, thus my decision to not go OLB in the 1st round.

great mock, woodrow...do you think jackson did enough at senior bowl to probably preclude him falling to bucs in second round... i'm not sure if he did enough to go in first, but i was thinking he would go no later than early to mid-second... guess that could be close to within striking range...

second round MLBs from class of 2005 such as tatupu & thurman had/have some similar traits (positive & negative)... supposedly undersized & admittedly without the classic, prototypical measurables you like to see from position... but outstanding instincts & leadership... with these guys doing so well, i wonder if it will "drive up the price" of a player seemingly cut from same cloth?

jackson is a tad lighter even than thurman (230), at a listed 225... leading to speculation that WLB could be best fit for him in the NFL... but at approximately same size as above blue chip rookie MLBs, it may well be this line of thinking is misguided.*

* bucs shelton quarles had a top-10 type season for a LB, & i believe he is about 225 as well... though 225 lb MLBs are somewhat of a rarity in the bigs... guys CLOSE to that (i would add vilma & antonio pierce to list) have THRIVED as three down MLBs in recent seasons, & their speed, quickness, agility, athleticism & coverage chops have compensated for an inability to stone a larry allen-type interior lineman (who can bench 700+ lbs) at the POA in the run game.

I don't know if D'Qwell will get into the 1st round, it's such a strong LB class that I just don't see him squeezing in there. Sure he had a nice all star game, but so did many other LBs. Chad Greenway re-asserted his elite grade. My personal LB man-love this year is reserved for UTEP's Thomas Howard. The kid, like Tatupu, is the son of an NFL vet who walked on in college b/c he was undersized. He's extremely well spoken and I saw him on NFL Network and was blown away by his understanding of the game and his ability to articulate his strengths and where he needs to improve. I see him as a "can't miss" weakside backer in the NFL.

1.30) Indianapolis Colts -- RB Laurence Maroney, Minnesota

Maroney would be a fantasy owners dream under this scenario, as he would be going to a ready made offense where teams couldn't stack the box, and he'd presumably have the starting job from Day One. Assuming Edge is gone in free agency, the Colts would have to look long and hard at Maroney who was highly productive as a workhorse back at Minnesota the last few seasons.

Nice job Jason, It would be a dream but there is litlle chance Maroney falls this far they will have to go up to get him in my opinion.

I wouldn't count on Maroney going much higher. With Edge James, Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green [most likely], Jamal Lewis, etc...being available this year plus three RBs clearly ahead of Maroney [bush, White and Williams], he should be a late 1st rounder.

my point wasn't so much that he would go in the first (though i think he could... perhaps i find this possibility a greater liklihood than you... at this point)... just on the liklihood of him lasting to bucs pick (2.23... about 55th overall pick?)...scouts seemed to like him before the good senior bowl showing... he was a four year starter for maryland and was consensus graded the #1-#2 MLB/ILB BEFORE the senior bowl... the strong performance sort of confirmed what they alread suspected...

maybe you read different sources... i didn't hear of a LOT of LBs that had better bowls... the two names that seemed to pop up a lot in the reviews i saw were greenway & jackson...

i don't really think of guys like hawk & greenway in the context of jackson... hawk will almost certainly go in the top 5-10 picks, & greenway probably anywhere from just outside top 10 to about pick 20... jackson probably not around there... more likely late first to early/mid-second...

one thing that seemed to jibe with something kiper said (jackson reminded him of a less explosive vilma... that got my attention) was that his leadership skills were said to be in evidence... vilma also had a rep as being a natural leader...

so it wasn't just THAT he excelled... but also the WAY he excelled... imo will be viewed as a valued commodity come draft time... it would seem like the rams, for instance, assuming they hadn't ALREADY secured a LB in round one (greenway would be about right value wise with that pick... you could easily make case that greenway could have as big an overall impact on their defense as a top DB might)... would be all over a LB like jackson in top half of round 2...

demeco RYANS might be the #3 LB... he put together a great body of work at alabama, but his measurables could be marginal... there seemed to be conflicting reports about him, but i didn't hear a lot of raves about him during drills & practice...

howard isn't a secret (last time i checked, he was in kiper's top 25 big board), so he could also go before jackson... i have heard some scouts question howard's instincts, but haven't seen this concern come up with jackson... howard reportedly has exceptional measurables & should test very well... scouts will have to figure out if he is more chaun thompson or DJ williams... two physical specimens who have had dramatically different learning curves to date... howard may be more like thompson in respect that they will have to overcome level of competition questions...

i agree with you that it is always nice to see that your LB is bright & articulate... modern offenses & defense are very complex... it can only help if you have a solid grasp of fundamentals & understanding of how offenses try & attack offenses, exploit matchups, etc...

also, the LB (especially MLB) is like the QB of the defense, & is responsible for getting his teammates lined up right based on reading his keys, recognizing the implications of pre-snap alignments, formations, personnel groupings, shifts & motions based on film study of tendencies, making the necessary adjustments that best counter the play most likely to unfold, etc...

that said, the cerebral & cognitive skills cited above are arguably different than the kind of instincts with which some LBs like vilma & tatupu seem to have an almost telepathic foresight to take the right initial step, always seem to be flowing to the ball carrier, have an innate sense of angles, ability to sift through traffic, avoid & shed blocks...

some of these probably are learned skills... but if your aren't already very good at this by the time you are, say, 21-22... no guarantee you will catch on fast & all of a sudden by 23-24-25?

i thought it would be interesting to see where top MLB/ILB have gone in recent drafts... last year it would have been barett ruud near top of second... thurman & tatupu went after, but i think around mid-second (& i don't think it would be too controversial to observe they probably should have gone higher... thurman does seem to have some immaturity & character question marks that shouldn't be ignored... tatupu is squeeky clean in that dept)...

in 2004 vilma went in top half of round 1 (1.11 or 1.12?)... in 2003... barnett went near end of round 1... he was an OLB in college, but was drafted a MLB... pre-combine consensus best MLB/ILB EJ henderson went near top of second round... shortly after...

so in recent seasons, the top MLB/ILB prospect (which jackson looks like... some teams may covet hodge for his size... he didn't seem to get rave reviews from senior bowl & was characterized variously as a little stiff & ponderous... but he had an outstanding career at iowa) would be gone by 2.23...

you are right... there are a few LBs that carry a higher grade than jackson... but not necessarily a lot of MLBs (i kind of doubt jackson is fast enough to play WLB)...

speaking of position versatility... you mentioned howard as a can't miss WLB in pros... i thought he was at least as likely to end up at SLB & that was where he played in college... no doubt his measurables could be conducive to success at WLB... but he is a versatile & good enough athlete that other aspects of his game & skills set could translate to a career at the SAM... at about 240, he is big enough where he could cover TEs as SLB (as well as take on their blocks)... with reportedly above average coverage skills, that aspect of his game could also translate well to strong side detail in the pros... his speed could be tremendous assett if teams want to bring him on the blitz...

on another subject discussed upthread... i know as much as most about the pros & cons of darnell bing... but i was curious to hear more detail about your concerns...

whats not to like (injury prone, suspect coverage skills, stellar teammates made him look better than he is)?

i kind of like the fact that... in the midst of a historic three season run that was one of the best in ncaa history... he is one of the top draft worthy defenders to emerge from the program in that time (udeze was thought to be possible top 10 guy until shoulder injury may have been partly responsible for dropping him to about 20)... their offense clearly played a huge, massive role in that run...

just in past four drafts (if we include the upcoming one)... they will have placed palmer #1 in 2003... mike williams #10 in 2005... bush & leinert very likely #1 & #2 & white could be anywhere from top 20 to as high as #5...

nonetheless, it isn't like everygame was 50-49 past three seasons... bing has been a key piece of the puzzle on D during USCs historic run... he may not played a great game in the national championship... but vince young may represent the apex of dual threat running QBs ever seen at the collegiate level (first/only to pass for 3,000 & rush for 1,000 in ncaa history)... i get the feeling he would have made 99.9% of all SSs look bad.

 

[Bri]

i thought it would be interesting to see where top MLB/ILB have gone in recent drafts... last year it would have been barett ruud near top of second... thurman & tatupu went after, but i think around mid-second (& i don't think it would be too controversial to observe they probably should have gone higher... thurman does seem to have some immaturity & character question marks that shouldn't be ignored... tatupu is squeeky clean in that dept)...in 2004 vilma went in top half of round 1 (1.11 or 1.12?)... in 2003... barnett went near end of round 1... he was an OLB in college, but was drafted a MLB... pre-combine consensus best MLB/ILB EJ henderson went near top of second round... shortly after...so in recent seasons, the top MLB/ILB prospect would be gone by 2.23...

I'm not following this.I'm seeing(guess numbers)2.01, 1.12, and 1.30 how do you get to 2.23? OR was that your pointscuze, it's been a long day

 

[Bob Magaw]

no problem, bri...

i was just trying to look at jason's idea of jackson lasting to bucs second round pick based on recent drafting trends... based on that, it seems very possible that jackson won't be there...

it is possible if this class is more loaded with LBs that carry first round grades... & teams value an OLB they have a higher grade on than a MLB with a lesser grade... it may well push jackson down to the range we are looking at more closely...

clearly hawk/greenway are long gone...

jacksons draft slot will have a lot to do with how he grades vis-a-vis guys like OLBs ryans & howard... & MLB/ILB hodge.

my guess is that he goes higher than hodge... & that if he doesn't leapfrog ryans or howard... he will go shortly after them...

 

[Bri]

no problem, bri...

i was just trying to look at jason's idea of jackson lasting to bucs second round pick based on recent drafting trends... based on that, it seems very possible that jackson won't be there...

it is possible if this class is more loaded with LBs that carry first round grades... & teams value an OLB they have a higher grade on than a MLB with a lesser grade... it may well push jackson down to the range we are looking at more closely...

clearly hawk/greenway are long gone...

jacksons draft slot will have a lot to do with how he grades vis-a-vis guys like OLBs ryans & howard... & MLB/ILB hodge.

my guess is that he goes higher than hodge... & that if he doesn't leapfrog ryans or howard... he will go shortly after them...

ahh I gotcha, thanks for clarifying.

 

[BigRed]

Is this what you think they will draft or should draft?

hello?

 

[Jason Wood]

Is this what you think they will draft or should draft?

hello?

It's what I think they will do based on the 2% of information we have to go on since it's early February.

 

[FFFIEND]

1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.

I just don't see the Lions taking a QB here. Martz thinks he is Sooooo smart that I bet he will grab a QB in a later round and just grab the best available here. Martz has had success taking QBs later in the draft or from the free-agent market. Last year Fitzpatrick was his wonder boy. I am sure he will find someone he thinks is a hidden gem and he will wait to grab the guy. One things is for sure. When Martz does grab his QB, he will think tha he has outsmarted everyone. That way the team doesn't take another PR hit in the draft. The new staff needs to distance themselves from the 3WRs in a row stigma. What player they will tke is anyone's guess, but I don't think it will be Cutler.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.

I just don't see the Lions taking a QB here. Martz thinks he is Sooooo smart that I bet he will grab a QB in a later round and just grab the best available here. Martz has had success taking QBs later in the draft or from the free-agent market. Last year Fitzpatrick was his wonder boy. I am sure he will find someone he thinks is a hidden gem and he will wait to grab the guy. One things is for sure. When Martz does grab his QB, he will think tha he has outsmarted everyone. That way the team doesn't take another PR hit in the draft. The new staff needs to distance themselves from the 3WRs in a row stigma. What player they will tke is anyone's guess, but I don't think it will be Cutler.

I don't think Martz is going to have much input in who they draft. He's an OC, and likely a temporary one at that. Millen will make that call and Martz will make due with whatever hand he's dealt. But I think there's a good chance Millen WILL want to give Martz a shot at salvaging Joey Harrington, which probably precludes Cutler to the Lions.

 

[Chaos Commish]

1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.

I just don't see the Lions taking a QB here. Martz thinks he is Sooooo smart that I bet he will grab a QB in a later round and just grab the best available here. Martz has had success taking QBs later in the draft or from the free-agent market. Last year Fitzpatrick was his wonder boy. I am sure he will find someone he thinks is a hidden gem and he will wait to grab the guy. One things is for sure. When Martz does grab his QB, he will think tha he has outsmarted everyone. That way the team doesn't take another PR hit in the draft. The new staff needs to distance themselves from the 3WRs in a row stigma. What player they will tke is anyone's guess, but I don't think it will be Cutler.

I don't think Martz is going to have much input in who they draft. He's an OC, and likely a temporary one at that. Millen will make that call and Martz will make due with whatever hand he's dealt. But I think there's a good chance Millen WILL want to give Martz a shot at salvaging Joey Harrington, which probably precludes Cutler to the Lions.

Pre-Martz, I had Cutler to Det in a mock. Post-Martz I dropped Cutler to the Dolphins...

 

[MLBrandow]

i thought it would be interesting to see where top MLB/ILB have gone in recent drafts... last year it would have been barett ruud near top of second... thurman & tatupu went after, but i think around mid-second (& i don't think it would be too controversial to observe they probably should have gone higher... thurman does seem to have some immaturity & character question marks that shouldn't be ignored... tatupu is squeeky clean in that dept)...

in 2004 vilma went in top half of round 1 (1.11 or 1.12?)... in 2003... barnett went near end of round 1... he was an OLB in college, but was drafted a MLB... pre-combine consensus best MLB/ILB EJ henderson went near top of second round... shortly after...

so in recent seasons, the top MLB/ILB prospect would be gone by 2.23...

I'm not following this.I'm seeing(guess numbers)2.01, 1.12, and 1.30 how do you get to 2.23? OR was that your point

scuze, it's been a long day

That's because after the Texans take D'Brick, they're going to take D'Qwell with the 33rd pick.

 

[diesel7982]

1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.

I just don't see the Lions taking a QB here. Martz thinks he is Sooooo smart that I bet he will grab a QB in a later round and just grab the best available here. Martz has had success taking QBs later in the draft or from the free-agent market. Last year Fitzpatrick was his wonder boy. I am sure he will find someone he thinks is a hidden gem and he will wait to grab the guy. One things is for sure. When Martz does grab his QB, he will think tha he has outsmarted everyone. That way the team doesn't take another PR hit in the draft. The new staff needs to distance themselves from the 3WRs in a row stigma. What player they will tke is anyone's guess, but I don't think it will be Cutler.

I don't think Martz is going to have much input in who they draft. He's an OC, and likely a temporary one at that. Millen will make that call and Martz will make due with whatever hand he's dealt. But I think there's a good chance Millen WILL want to give Martz a shot at salvaging Joey Harrington, which probably precludes Cutler to the Lions.

Pre-Martz, I had Cutler to Det in a mock. Post-Martz I dropped Cutler to the Dolphins...

Dont discount Oakland. They have no long-term(or short-term) QB option, and Cutler is an Al Davis Quarterback.

 

[Jason Wood]

1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt

This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.

I just don't see the Lions taking a QB here. Martz thinks he is Sooooo smart that I bet he will grab a QB in a later round and just grab the best available here. Martz has had success taking QBs later in the draft or from the free-agent market. Last year Fitzpatrick was his wonder boy. I am sure he will find someone he thinks is a hidden gem and he will wait to grab the guy. One things is for sure. When Martz does grab his QB, he will think tha he has outsmarted everyone. That way the team doesn't take another PR hit in the draft. The new staff needs to distance themselves from the 3WRs in a row stigma. What player they will tke is anyone's guess, but I don't think it will be Cutler.

I don't think Martz is going to have much input in who they draft. He's an OC, and likely a temporary one at that. Millen will make that call and Martz will make due with whatever hand he's dealt. But I think there's a good chance Millen WILL want to give Martz a shot at salvaging Joey Harrington, which probably precludes Cutler to the Lions.

Pre-Martz, I had Cutler to Det in a mock. Post-Martz I dropped Cutler to the Dolphins...

Dont discount Oakland. They have no long-term(or short-term) QB option, and Cutler is an Al Davis Quarterback.

You can never discount Al Davis from any move; whether it makes sense or not But they drafted their "Al Davis prototype" last year in Andrew Walter, I say he gets a shot before they covet another young passer.

 

[BigRed]

Is this what you think they will draft or should draft?

hello?

It's what I think they will do based on the 2% of information we have to go on since it's early February.

ah thxNo need to be defensive, was a legit question. When I've done em I tend to find it's a mix of both