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"Worth reaching for" vs. "Too rich for my blood" (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Like everyone else on this Godforsaken forum, you've spent way too much time prepping for your draft, absorbed all the narratives, and identified your value picks. Now everyone else is catching on to them, and in some cases that's being reflected in rising ADP prices. So now you have to make a decision: Has the hype gone too far, or are you so sure of your analysis that you're going to pick them a round or two early just to make sure you get them?

Obviously, a lot of this is dependent on the kind of league you're in. If you're with a bunch of sharps, they've probably been reading all the same stuff you have. If the other GMs are more casual, you don't have to worry about them as much (though of course it only takes one)

Here are my opinions, and where I stand on them. I was going to try to find each player's ADP, but it's so hard to find a single reliable source, so I'll just say where I would or wouldn't feel comfortable with them in my lineup.

Allen Robinson -- I think I'm still in on taking him as my WR2 as early as the 4th round, maybe even the third. Stafford's injury scares me a little, but otherwise I think he puts up solid numbers and scoops up some of Kupp's regression

Dameon Pierce: LOL good luck figuring out a realistic ADP; this one is going to be entirely dependent on the whims of the other GMs in your league. As for my opinion, love the "rookie year James Robinson" potential but don't want to have to bank on it. That means I'd be pretty stoked to get him as my RB3, but I don't want him as my RB2, and I suspect he's going to end up closer to the latter

Cole Kmet: He seems to be becoming everyone's favorite late-round TE, but I'm still all in. I'd take him as early as late 7th, although I hope I don't have to.

Trey Lance: Classic example of a guy who would have been a good late-round pick a few years ago, but now that everyone knows about the QB cheat code will probably go too early. He still might justify the hype, but I don't think I would be willing to take him before the 7th.

Michael Pittman: Another one where I'm buying the hype. I'd prefer not to have him as my WR1, but if I go RB-RB and get him in the 3rd I think I'd be OK with that. If I have to take him in the 2nd that would be too rich. And if he's my WR2 I'm over the moon

Antonio Gibson: May get a late bump because of the Robinson news, but I think I'm still out on him as anything other than a late-round flyer
 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
Here are my opinions, and where I stand on them. I was going to try to find each player's ADP, but it's so hard to find a single reliable source, so I'll just say where I would or wouldn't feel comfortable with them in my lineup.
If you are looking for Gabriel Davis’s ADP just check his thread.

Good list. I passed on Robinson in the 4th. I don’t know why. Something doesn’t smell right to me.

Love the Pittman pick. The hype is there. But he’s still buried behind some name brand guys that allows him to be grabbed in the third. He IS my WR2 behind Jefferson and I couldn’t be more ecstatic about it. Followed up by G Davis, Bateman and Hopkins. I’m excited to see wha that crew can do this year.

Love Kmet. If anything I just think he’s going to get lots of targets. And as a late round TE that’s all you can ask for. Too many times when I don’t get a true top 5 TE, I end up on the wire and playing guys getting 2-3 targets a game and catching 1 ball for 16 yards. It’s beyond frustrating to watch. I own him and will roll with him till he proves us wrong.

Agree with you on Peirce. Yes there’s something to like there, but the hype machine has outgrown the player. The Texans are not a good team currently and that worries me. Jaxonville wasn’t when Robinson popped either. So I’ll allow it, but that felt like lighting in a bottle. I will happily be proved wrong.

I’m so far out on Lance. He feels like a mid season crash and burn candidate to me. I watched him play last year and he did not look great. That coupled with an off and on camp and I’m not excited about him. I play in 6 pt passing league though so my opinion is skewed there. But I’d still much rather have a lamar or Kyler earlier, and continue to grab WR/RB with upside in the later rounds.

Antonio Gibson. I’m a Brian Robinson owner… so I’m riding that heroic story for the whole season. Just waiting for him to become rookie of the year after surviving a carjacking.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Agree with you on Peirce. Yes there’s something to like there, but the hype machine has outgrown the player. The Texans are not a good team currently and that worries me. Jaxonville wasn’t when Robinson popped either. So I’ll allow it, but that felt like lighting in a bottle. I will happily be proved wrong.
The key point here is that Robinson was undrafted the year he popped. If you're taking Pierce as your RB2 he better come pretty close to Robinson's production or it's a bad pick
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Pass on basically all injured players at their adp unless it’s a two round discount. Just a rule of thumb I use that is generally more right than it is wrong. Someone like waddle just scares me that he’s rushing back.

Dont think anyone in particular is a dnd or avoid or must draft, it’s all about cost to me. Miles sanders fell to the 8/9th in my draft and someone pulled the trigger when his adp was 2-3 rounds higher. I got lance near the 9/10 turn when I didn’t have a qb because the upside is there- if there’s downside I’ll just stream but also got tua as a high upside backup potentially.

I don’t hate players, I hate adps is the saying

Also you will need to reach if you’re at the 4 or 9 spot - just the way it is. Generally it’s not too hard when you get a feel of how the drafts going. You almost always avoid getting on the end of a run
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Worth reaching for...

Discounted WRs who have balled out and are paired with great QBs: JuJu, Allen Robinson, Gabe Davis.

Any top 15 RB in your ranking.

Too Rich...

Established TEs who find themselves with increased target competition: Kittle and Waller.


Established QBs that find themselves with weak receiving options: Aaron Rodgers and Dak.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
But they are both capable of winning your matchups every single weekend...that's almost undeniable too.
One in the 1st, one in the 2nd.

If risk/reward is relatively similar, gimme a top 5 WR1 + Barkley over CMC + whatever WR one gets end of 2nd.
 

massraider

Footballguy
Lots of guys in the first 4 rounds can win you a week. They don't come with multiple years of lower leg injuries.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Lots of guys in the first 4 rounds can win you a week. They don't come with multiple years of lower leg injuries.
In the last 4 years, there are only 5 players to top 24.0 ppg in a season. Saquon and CMC are two of those players. CMC is so crazy he’s averaged 29 and 30 in two different seasons. The upside is real with these two.
 
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Ilov80s

Footballguy
29-30 ppg is so crazy. It’s like turning your RB spot into another QB spot where you play Josh Allen each week. Or it’s like if you had some special cheat code where you could play Joe Mixon and AJ Dillon at a single RB spot. It’s just the biggest advantage in fantasy.
 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
Like everyone else on this Godforsaken forum, you've spent way too much time prepping for your draft, absorbed all the narratives, and identified your value picks. Now everyone else is catching on to them, and in some cases that's being reflected in rising ADP prices. So now you have to make a decision: Has the hype gone too far, or are you so sure of your analysis that you're going to pick them a round or two early just to make sure you get them?

Obviously, a lot of this is dependent on the kind of league you're in. If you're with a bunch of sharps, they've probably been reading all the same stuff you have. If the other GMs are more casual, you don't have to worry about them as much (though of course it only takes one)

Here are my opinions, and where I stand on them. I was going to try to find each player's ADP, but it's so hard to find a single reliable source, so I'll just say where I would or wouldn't feel comfortable with them in my lineup.

Allen Robinson -- I think I'm still in on taking him as my WR2 as early as the 4th round, maybe even the third. Stafford's injury scares me a little, but otherwise I think he puts up solid numbers and scoops up some of Kupp's regression

Dameon Pierce: LOL good luck figuring out a realistic ADP; this one is going to be entirely dependent on the whims of the other GMs in your league. As for my opinion, love the "rookie year James Robinson" potential but don't want to have to bank on it. That means I'd be pretty stoked to get him as my RB3, but I don't want him as my RB2, and I suspect he's going to end up closer to the latter

Cole Kmet: He seems to be becoming everyone's favorite late-round TE, but I'm still all in. I'd take him as early as late 7th, although I hope I don't have to.

Trey Lance: Classic example of a guy who would have been a good late-round pick a few years ago, but now that everyone knows about the QB cheat code will probably go too early. He still might justify the hype, but I don't think I would be willing to take him before the 7th.

Michael Pittman: Another one where I'm buying the hype. I'd prefer not to have him as my WR1, but if I go RB-RB and get him in the 3rd I think I'd be OK with that. If I have to take him in the 2nd that would be too rich. And if he's my WR2 I'm over the moon

Antonio Gibson: May get a late bump because of the Robinson news, but I think I'm still out on him as anything other than a late-round flyer
No way on ARob. not as a 7th rounder, certainly not as a 3rd or 4th. he's not going to get the recs and the TDs are going to be hard to come by. He looks more like a guy who had opportunity in Chicago because he was the only gig in town, He reminds me of Golladay in Detroit. decent stats, huge pay raise to go to NYG , and flops face first.

Pierce - believe the hype. Lovie Smith will grind him into the ground. The offense has looked sharp in preseason, Collins looks poised to finish as a top 15 WR. Mills looks legit.

Trey Lance might start hot vs. Chicago, but I think his shortcomings will show up in the following weeks. don't think Jimmy G was kept in town 'just because'.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
No, you don't. Making great contact is far more reliable.
Of course you need good contact but bat speed is everything for hitting home runs.

I would rather have elite scoring RB than 3 safe RB2 types.
 
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