WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)

[DropKick]

Idk about "easy" no. It would be an easy no for me as I am not very confident in Golladay in general. Just not a guy whoe excites me. He is a great wr1 on his team and should be a low end wr2 for fantasy teams. 

Golladay is worth a bit more than Brown on charts and calculators, but I'd still decline. 

Golladay turns 27 next November while Brown turns 23 on June 30th...  a big factor to me in dynasty.

Absolutely nothing against Golladay's game - I just think that much of Brown.  Love the physicality, size, speed and aggressive aspect of his game.  Put up 1,000 yards as a rookie with an unstable QB situation.

Not surprised by the charts/calculators.  I'm more worried about their relative values a year from now.

 

[Interseptopus]

Golladay turns 27 next November while Brown turns 23 on June 30th...  a big factor to me in dynasty.

Absolutely nothing against Golladay's game - I just think that much of Brown.  Love the physicality, size, speed and aggressive aspect of his game.  Put up 1,000 yards as a rookie with an unstable QB situation.

Not surprised by the charts/calculators.  I'm more worried about their relative values a year from now.

Good point. I didnt realize Golladay was so old being this is his 3rd season... In that case I take back what I said, should be an easy no for everyone. 

 

[tangfoot]

I've been offered K.Golladay.  Tempted.

I'm not a fan of trading players who are still alive in the playoffs.  Push your decision off until the Titans are eliminated and hopefully no one suffers any catastrophic injuries during these next few weeks.

 

[DropKick]

I'm not a fan of trading players who are still alive in the playoffs.  Push your decision off until the Titans are eliminated and hopefully no one suffers any catastrophic injuries during these next few weeks.

In kind of a "only fantasy football can make people this selfish" way, I've hoped for key dynasty guys to be eliminated to save them from the wear and tear.    I know...

 

[Bri]

Like I said in the other thread, Taywan Taylor lit up Gilmore this summer for 200 yards. One day, Belichick made him go back in with the threes and Ratliff Williams torched him. 

Gilmore has been great since. It IS likely this is like the Saints game where it's hard for the rookie to lose his shadow. Still...maybe the Titans saw something.

I lean toward he's great here...just saying

 

[Bri]

Gotta have some concern that it's the 2nd top CB to recently (about) shut him down. Remember that when ranking next year. He's still learning

 

[BigAl21]

They didn’t even attempt to throw the ball tonight. It was an afterthought. This game concerns me zero about AJ

 

[Bri]

They didn’t even attempt to throw the ball tonight. It was an afterthought. This game concerns me zero about AJ

That doesn't make sense for FF though. I mean you wouldn't say that if this were several weeks ago and you drafted him as your #1 like some might in 2020.

 

[JohnnyU]

They didn’t even attempt to throw the ball tonight. It was an afterthought. This game concerns me zero about AJ

I don't recall where a single game influenced me in fantasy football, except for maybe a gruesome injury. 

 

[ffguru56]

That doesn't make sense for FF though. I mean you wouldn't say that if this were several weeks ago and you drafted him as your #1 like some might in 2020.

I think you need to look at the larger sample size to make your evaluation instead of focusing on one game.  You can’t fault a player when the game plan doesn’t involve him.  His lack of production in the wild card game hasn’t changed my opinion or ranking of him at all.

 

[kittenmittens]

Gotta have some concern that it's the 2nd top CB to recently (about) shut him down. Remember that when ranking next year. He's still learning

I think those CBs shut down basically everyone.  My biggest concern is just that Tennessee wasn't doing much to get him the ball even when he was producing, he just overcame a lack of opportunity because he's such a beast. 

 

[ffguru56]

I think those CBs shut down basically everyone.  My biggest concern is just that Tennessee wasn't doing much to get him the ball even when he was producing, he just overcame a lack of opportunity because he's such a beast. 

Now that’s a legitimate concern to me for his future production.  I think that’ll be the case as long as Tannehill is at the helm.

 

[kittenmittens]

Now that’s a legitimate concern to me for his future production.  I think that’ll be the case as long as Tannehill is at the helm.

Tannehill >>>> Mariota for the WRs because at least Ryan will throw the ball. 

I think you could do a lot worse than Ryan, but if TEN can get out of QB purgatory look out because AJB is a stud. 

I'm thinking of buying highish this offseason, hopefully he has another fantasy stinker in the playoffs and his value dips a bit.  I am just a bit concerned that the volume will not be there.  It wasn't there for Davis, who had similar numbers in 2018. He had a lot more catches and fewer yards.  Brown was just so efficient there is no way he repeats it, so he needs the volume to be worth what his going rate is, and that is in question. 

 

[ffguru56]

Tannehill >>>> Mariota for the WRs because at least Ryan will throw the ball. 

I think you could do a lot worse than Ryan, but if TEN can get out of QB purgatory look out because AJB is a stud. 

I'm thinking of buying highish this offseason, hopefully he has another fantasy stinker in the playoffs and his value dips a bit.  I am just a bit concerned that the volume will not be there.  It wasn't there for Davis, who had similar numbers in 2018. He had a lot more catches and fewer yards.  Brown was just so efficient there is no way he repeats it, so he needs the volume to be worth what his going rate is, and that is in question. 

I agree with you that Tennehill is an improvement over Mariota but perhaps the lack of volume for AJB is because of Tannehill nonetheless.

 

[Bri]

I think you need to look at the larger sample size to make your evaluation instead of focusing on one game.  You can’t fault a player when the game plan doesn’t involve him.  His lack of production in the wild card game hasn’t changed my opinion or ranking of him at all.

Let me reiterate, the love has been strong for AJ and future stud, star etc. People were discussing when they'd pick him next year and how much they love his prospects. 

I'm a Titans fan and love the rookie and sooo appreciate that he's the first WR to pan out since Kendall (<---hesitant on that one) and about 10 years before that....soo many failures and he looks like a gem.

All I was saying is we gotta put the brakes on this lovefest some. Part of his development will be learning to produce against the top corners. The best will get shut down for some of the game and then they find a way. It can be a 70 yard game. It doesn't have to be 100-120 each week, but his next step in development has to be to produce against top corners.

Here's his PFR page- if we ignore the first several until the offense made him the #1, it still shows the same is true. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowAJ00.htm

Arthur Smith and Ryan Tannehill have to do whatever they have to also. Vrabel has gone away from Henry a lot in the last two years only to realize he should go with his studs. Something along those lines, yes some of this is on the young Titans offensive staff BUT for FF, all that is going to matter is Brown. If ya draft Brown in round one, you want production every week.  In round two, maybe he can have a week or two that are lesser. In round three, you've got a little more tolerance for bad games. etc. 

It's premature with free agency and all but next year he's probably got 3 zeros https://www.titansonline.com/schedule/2020-opponents UNLESS he figures out how to succeed against top corners. 

So amidst the prior conversation- where do you rank him for next year?

 

[Interseptopus]

So amidst the prior conversation- where do you rank him for next year?

top 24

 

[kittenmittens]

top 24

Overall, or top 24 WR? 

 

[DropKick]

Gotta have some concern that it's the 2nd top CB to recently (about) shut him down. Remember that when ranking next year. He's still learning

We knew the Titans were a run first team and there is always the chance that a Henry heavy game plan will result in limited opportunities.   Doesn't impact my opinion at all.  Always felt the talent will have to overcome the situation.

 

[dkp993]

Absolutely zero concern about yesterday. A rookie WR in a run heavy game plan (the weakest part of the NE D) against maybe the best DB in the game and the favorite for the DPOTY.   If it had gone any other way that would have been the shock.  

 

[Interseptopus]

Overall, or top 24 WR? 

wr

 

[ffguru56]

Part of his development will be learning to produce against the top corners. The best will get shut down for some of the game and then they find a way. It can be a 70 yard game. It doesn't have to be 100-120 each week, but his next step in development has to be to produce against top corners.

I agree with this as part of a player's evaluation and I would think that most would as well from a fantasy perspective.  Certainly from an NFL perspective. 

I think the vast majority of people aren't concerned over his dud against a top corner because established studs will even get shut down from time to time.  Additionally, the run-heavy (only) game plan perhaps is what prevented AJB from achieving that 70 yard game that the best WR will still manage against top corners.  That's at least how I view it, which is why I say I'm not at all concerned with the lack of production from that game. 

But overall, yes, that would be my expectation of a player if we viewed his 4-year career and it wasn't an outside factor (game plan, qb, etc) that prevented production against top corners.

 

[kittenmittens]

wr

I think he might even be top 15 WR in terms of current value.  Maybe even top 10?

Doing a SF bankroll auction now, and so far he went WR9 with very little chance anyone left goes for more.  He went for more than Davante Adams and slightly less than Tyreek.  So far the 29th highest player in terms of auction spend. 

 

[grateful zed]

(dynastyleaguefootball) Titans rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown surpassed the 1,000 yard plateau while scoring eight touchdowns

Analysis: His official stat line was 52/1,051/8 on 84 targets. Brown notched five 100-yard games including out of the gate in his first game as a professional. He then went cold with Marcus Mariota at the helm until Ryan Tannehill was instilled under center and Brown finished with four 100 yard games over his past six, including four touchdowns. He's an impressive physical specimen at 6'1/226 lbs. and he's dangerous after the catch as well as evidenced by his 20.2 yards per catch. The 2019 second-round selection was noticeably more involved with Tannehill under center and all arrows are pointing up heading into 2020. Brown has already climbed the rankings ladder and currently sits as DLF's WR14. He has all the appearance of a cornerstone receiver for dynasty coaches for a long time to come.

 

[Faust]

Lessons from baseball helped Titans' A.J. Brown blossom at football

 

[Bri]

The playoffs are showing some changes need to be done with the O and he needs to develop. Henry has stole the show and Tannehill has barely passed but last I checked we were wanting AJ elite and holding him to a high standard so...continuing that, he hasn't been good enough in the playoffs.

Again, this is OK for a rookie. In time he will.

Last week, on 2 or 3 catches he worked hard to get open and that was a real good sign even if the stats stink. 

The Chiefs should offer his weakest (relative) cornerback yet in the playoffs. With their big play guys on offense, it'd be nice for the Titans to flash some big passing plays too.

 

[kittenmittens]

I'm in some startups.  Prices are getting absurd.  

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm in some startups.  Prices are getting absurd.  

While I love Brown and have done so since last winter when a lot of folks were hyping Harry and Metcalf, people are all about what have you done for me lately, basing everything off a few recent games.  I feel that is risky.  Tannehill had a good year, but didn't he suck in the recent past?

 

[JohnnyU]

I believe Tannehill was about QB5 since he took over? Not sure about the accuracy of those numbers, just parroting what I remember reading in his thread. 

If you're referring to these playoffs, no he didnt suck. He wasnt asked to throw. And when he did he made it count (2 of his 7 completions were tds last week). Wildcard week, yeah he didn't play very well, but by all accounts it was his first bad game all season 

I'm concerned (and always have been) about having a wr on a run first team. They end up inconsistent, which isnt exactly a recipe for fantasy success. 

I was referring to Tannehill pre-Titans.  I could have picked him off the waiver wire anytime I chose.  I'm just saying Tannehill-Brown connection is no sure thing in future, no matter how much I love Brown.

 

[Interseptopus]

I was referring to Tannehill pre-Titans.  I could have picked him off the waiver wire anytime I chose.  I'm just saying Tannehill-Brown connection is no sure thing in future, no matter how much I love Brown.

Yeah, that makes more sense. I put that more on the ineptitude of coaching in Miami

 

[Bri]

A lot of writers think AJ can succeed this week and won't be shut down.

One scout pointed out that Humphries absence has made it harder for him. Despite his lack of success in TEN, defenses are treating him like he's the slot guy from Tampa and AJ has received more attention since he's been out

 

[The Frankman]

Yeah, that makes more sense. I put that more on the ineptitude of coaching in Miami

Or, he was really inconsistent and sometimes outright bad for years in Miami and being benched and carrying around a clipboard for awhile has allowed him to step back and reinvent himself now.

 

[barackdhouse]

Or, he was really inconsistent and sometimes outright bad for years in Miami and being benched and carrying around a clipboard for awhile has allowed him to step back and reinvent himself now.

Absolutely. And the narrative for a few years now has been that QBs are hitting their prime in their early 30s. He has a ton of experience in this league. So if he is just coming into his prime as he has gotten this second chance, change of scenery, wake up call, whatever you want to call it, it's totally plausible that he has taken a major step forward and can produce for a number of years to come. We shall see. I have to imagine he completes more than 10 passes today and will need to make plays. He has been doing it all year. Even these last two wins, he made plays. 

 

[Bri]

Absolutely. And the narrative for a few years now has been that QBs are hitting their prime in their early 30s. He has a ton of experience in this league. So if he is just coming into his prime as he has gotten this second chance, change of scenery, wake up call, whatever you want to call it, it's totally plausible that he has taken a major step forward and can produce for a number of years to come. We shall see. I have to imagine he completes more than 10 passes today and will need to make plays. He has been doing it all year. Even these last two wins, he made plays. 

One thing that he said recently is that this is the most sure-handed group he's ever played with and it makes his job easier knowing he can confidently complete a pass to the 4th or 5th option. 

Firkser is probably about right as a third TE. Sharpe may be a third WR, might develop into a two, but he's about right as a 4th. Sharpe led college in catches and has nice mitts. Firkser doesn't have the size and blocking of TEs but has been in the league a few years because of his hands. Their FB isn't the best blocker or blitz pickup guy, but he does have impressive hands.

Humphries is one of the best third options in the game and Jonnu is probably the best backup receiving TE in the game. 

I really hope the Titans pay attention to his recent statement because it is unusual to have depth guys with such great hands. For a myriad of reasons, they could have went with someone else at each position but it paid the unforeseen dividend of allowing a QB to be at ease.

Many are free agents and it wouldn't shock me if they got a FB with a great nose but lesser hands or a backup TE that blocks well but has concrete hands etc. If they can re-sign any of them and if any improve, that takes pressure off AJ and Davis.

 

[Zyphros]

Top 5 dynasty WR.  

 

[King of the Jungle]

Top 5 dynasty WR.  

Bold. Love him as well and hope your right.

 

[RushHour]

Top 5 dynasty WR.  

Possibly but he feels so overhyped/valued at the moment. 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Top 5 dynasty WR.  

I kind of agree but the qb makes me nervous.

 

[Zyphros]

Bold. Love him as well and hope your right.

Possibly but he feels so overhyped/valued at the moment. 

I kind of agree but the qb makes me nervous.

Oh I fully expect him to be in most peoples top10's, my top5, probably near 15-20 by the end of 2020 season

 

[Faust]

A.J. Brown caught 3-of-6 targets for 51 yards in Tennessee's AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs.

Brown debuted with 3/100 receiving in a 30-point win over the hapless Browns in Week 1 but still averaged just 2.3/45.5/0.3 in six games from Marcus Mariota. Ryan Tannehill’s insertion under center breathed new life into the 22-year-old as he closed the year with 38/778/6 from Week 7 on, becoming just the fifth rookie since the merger to get drafted outside the Top 50 and still eclipse 1,000 receiving yards (1,051). Brown’s production on a lowly 6.1 targets and 3.8 catches per game from Tannehill is certainly worrisome, but OC Arthur Smith will likely feature the Ole Miss product from the get-go in his sophomore follow-up; Tannehill returning on a lucrative extension or franchise tag would also help. Whatever the case, fantasy players should treat Brown’s concerning volume accordingly and wait until the 3rd/4th-round turn before leaping at the salivating wideout in early Best-Ball drafts.

Jan 19, 2020, 8:33 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Ranking the 2019 rookie wide receivers for dynasty fantasy football

Excerpt:

1. A.J. BROWN, TENNESSEE TITANS

Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB

Best Yards per Route Run Seasons
+ All Rookie WRs (2010-2019)

1. Odell Beckham Jr., 2014 (2.76)
2. A.J. Brown, 2019 (2.67)
3. Tyreek Hill, 2016 (2.30)
4. Doug Baldwin, 2011 (2.24)
5. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 2017 (2.16)
6. A.J. Green, 2011 (2.13)
7. Julio Jones, 2011 (2.10)

Key stat: Among all 79 wide receivers to see 50 or more targets, Brown ranked third in yards per route run (2.67), second in passer rating when targeted (127.6), second in missed tackles forced per reception (0.31), first in yards per target (12.5), first in yards after the catch per reception (8.88), and first in yards after contact per reception (5.02).

McLaurin stood out in our grading process, but so too did Brown, who is two years younger. In addition to PFF grade, Brown also stood out in (quite literally) almost every other metric I find statistically significant for fantasy wide receivers. And, in fact, he didn’t just “stand out,” he either recorded a historically great number, led the league, or almost led the league. Further, he dominated the metric I find most significant – yards per route run.

Brown was my No. 1 rookie during the pre-draft process. Following a tumble into the second round, to what I initially viewed as an unideal landing spot, he dropped to fourth in my rankings. However, Brown clearly blew past even my wildest expectations, and that landing spot no longer looks so unappealing – Ryan Tannehill led the league in passer rating, passing yards per dropback, and PFF grade in 2019.

Brown should not only rank as the top wide receiver from this class, but he should be considered as a top-25 dynasty asset (or top-12 among wide receivers).

 

[grateful zed]

1.Michael ThomasWRNO9

2.DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU10

3.JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT7

4.Davante AdamsWRGB11

5.Mike EvansWRTB7

6.Odell Beckham JrWRCLE7

7.Julio JonesWRATL9

8.Tyreek HillWRKC12

9.Chris GodwinWRTB7

10.D.J. MooreWRCAR7

11.Kenny GolladayWRDET5

12.Courtland SuttonWRDEN10

13.Keenan AllenWRLAC12

14.Cooper KuppWRLAR9

15.Amari Cooper

i would slot AJ in around 10-12 on this list.

 

[doowain]

i would slot AJ in around 10-12 on this list.

I dunno.  I personally wouldn't trade him for anyone below #5....maybe Godwin, but certainly no one else.

ETA: And I wouldn't trade him for JuJu.  So I guess I have him as my WR6 in dynasty.  And if I'm being completely honest with myself, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on anyone except Thomas and Hopkins.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I dunno.  I personally wouldn't trade him for anyone below #5....maybe Godwin, but certainly no one else.

ETA: And I wouldn't trade him for JuJu.  So I guess I have him as my WR6 in dynasty.  And if I'm being completely honest with myself, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on anyone except Thomas and Hopkins.

Man. As a Titans fan, I love AJ. He’s a tremendous talent and just concluded an overall fantastic rookie season. But assuming the offense stays the same with Tanny and Henry, I think he’s going to have many frustrating weeks for owners next season. I didn’t realize his value had risen so high. 

 

[JuniorNB]

Man. As a Titans fan, I love AJ. He’s a tremendous talent and just concluded an overall fantastic rookie season. But assuming the offense stays the same with Tanny and Henry, I think he’s going to have many frustrating weeks for owners next season. I didn’t realize his value had risen so high. 

Agreed. He's going to be way overdrafted next year. Just doesn't get enough touches to be a legit number 1. Or even a reliable #2.  I'd have him right around #20 in my receiver rankings.

 

[dkp993]

I dunno.  I personally wouldn't trade him for anyone below #5....maybe Godwin, but certainly no one else.

ETA: And I wouldn't trade him for JuJu.  So I guess I have him as my WR6 in dynasty.  And if I'm being completely honest with myself, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on anyone except Thomas and Hopkins.

0.0% chance I trade him for JuJu even putting Dynasty aside.   Also no way JuJu is top 10 imo but that's for a different thread.   

 

[grateful zed]

He will be drafted as a WR2, but in reality he is a lower end WR2, great WR3. I expect his volume to go up, but a WR on a run first team, in general, is inconsistent

likely scenario in 2020, but we are talking dynasty here.

what if henry moves on or gets hurt?

 

[JoeJoe88]

likely scenario in 2020, but we are talking dynasty here.

what if henry moves on or gets hurt?

In that case I would move him up. But I would be shocked if Henry’s not a Titan next year. Again, I love AJ as a player. I’m just not sure the volumes going to be there consistently. He had a lot of big plays for tds this season. 

 

[rockaction]

I'm talking dynasty too. as long as they are a run first team AJB will be inconsistent and upside capped. 

Betting on injury to Henry...that's a tough bet to take. 

Henry is a UFA. He might be gone. Wait until March. 

 

[TheWinz]

He will be drafted as a WR2, but in reality he is a lower end WR2, great WR3. I expect his volume to go up, but a WR on a run first team, in general, is inconsistent

Technically, there were only 3 run first teams last year - BAL, SF, and MIN, but I get your point.  The highest rated WR for each was Brown (#46), Samuel (#31), and Diggs #21).  AJ Brown finished #22 in his rookie season.  When Tannehill became the starter in week 7, AJ averaged 6.1 targets for the last 10 weeks.  In his first 6 with Mariota, he never saw 6 targets in any game.

6 games with Mariota = WR53
10 games with Tannehill = WR8

I would rank AJ a few spots higher than you, somewhere in the mid WR2's (17-19), so I guess we are pretty close.

P.S.  Ain't no way Henry is leaving TEN

 

[grateful zed]

I'm talking dynasty too. as long as they are a run first team AJB will be inconsistent and upside capped.

Betting on injury to Henry...that's a tough bet to take. 

not betting on Henry to get hurt, i have him rostered as well.

AJ realistically has 8-10 more years in the NFL, things change, he has the elite talent to succeed and be a consistent WR2+ producer.