WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)

[The Frankman]

Yeah I also wondered if I was in the minority.  I consider AJ a must start WR1 the rest of the year unless he is facing a particular cover man.  Even then WR2,

Doesn't get the bankable volume you'd expect from a/other WR1s and has to rely too much on hyper-efficiency. A lot of that is due to Tannehill spreading it around to legit weapons and the usually run-heavy nature of the offense. He's your typical "upside WR2".

 

[FGITLOTR]

Doesn't get the bankable volume you'd expect from a/other WR1s and has to rely too much on hyper-efficiency. A lot of that is due to Tannehill spreading it around to legit weapons and the usually run-heavy nature of the offense. He's your typical "upside WR2".

WR1 and I don’t care who he’s playing 

 

[fightingillini]

Worth Allen Robinson and a mid 2021 1st?

Not enough in a dynasty league.  Robinson is in his 7th year, Brown in his 2nd.  That's huge in dynasty.   

 

[The Frankman]

LOL this is the Tyler Lockett scenario from the last few years all over again.

 

[Judge Smails]

WR1 and I don’t care who he’s playing 

He showed why last week.  1 step in a crease and he's gone to the house.  His YAC stats last year were ridiculous.  Must start for me

 

[voiceofunreason]

Doesn't get the bankable volume you'd expect from a/other WR1s and has to rely too much on hyper-efficiency. A lot of that is due to Tannehill spreading it around to legit weapons and the usually run-heavy nature of the offense. He's your typical "upside WR2".

Nope.

 

[Teezee]

The beautiful thing about AJ’s situation is the safeties can’t cheat and double him bc of the presence of Henry, passing situation or not. Most defenses will play the pass when it’s 3rd and 6 but not against Tenn. The option of play action on every play is demoralizing to defenses and if you’re the Titans, how do you not want to take advantage of that leverage? I know we love volume but Tannehill has proven to be precise, efficient and timely when the situation calls for it. The production doesn’t lie here and this may be a situation where we see elite numbers at the cost of volume. They just shredded Pittsburgh..

 

[The Frankman]

The beautiful thing about AJ’s situation is the safeties can’t cheat and double him bc of the presence of Henry, passing situation or not. Most defenses will play the pass when it’s 3rd and 6 but not against Tenn. The option of play action on every play is demoralizing to defenses and if you’re the Titans, how do you not want to take advantage of that leverage? I know we love volume but Tannehill has proven to be precise, efficient and timely when the situation calls for it. The production doesn’t lie here and this may be a situation where we see elite numbers at the cost of volume. They just shredded Pittsburgh..

Oh you can put up elite numbers at low volume; it's just not sustainable and taylor-made for negative regression. See Tyler Lockett his whole career with Russ... until suddenly this year. Why? More bankable volume due to the offense opening up. He still has to beat out DK Metcalf for volume, but at least he has more opportunities overall as a safety net...

This isn't new, either. AJ Brown owners had this same issue last year.

 

[davearm]

Doesn't get the bankable volume you'd expect from a/other WR1s and has to rely too much on hyper-efficiency. A lot of that is due to Tannehill spreading it around to legit weapons and the usually run-heavy nature of the offense. He's your typical "upside WR2".

FWIW AJ Brown is sitting in the #2 spot in FBG's latest rest-of-season WR rankings.

 

[SkippaDaFlippa]

FWIW AJ Brown is sitting in the #2 spot in FBG's latest rest-of-season WR rankings.

I am going to assume Adams is #1. Out of curiosity can you tell me where they have Golladay ranked?

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Oh you can put up elite numbers at low volume; it's just not sustainable and taylor-made for negative regression. See Tyler Lockett his whole career with Russ... until suddenly this year. Why? More bankable volume due to the offense opening up. He still has to beat out DK Metcalf for volume, but at least he has more opportunities overall as a safety net...

This isn't new, either. AJ Brown owners had this same issue last year.

Lockett was terrific pre-injury last year, I'll take that every Sunday and twice on Mondays! Volume be dammed!

 

[The Frankman]

FWIW AJ Brown is sitting in the #2 spot in FBG's latest rest-of-season WR rankings.

That's fine; of course their probable reasoning is a) He will start getting that volume even when all Tannehill's weapons return b) he consistently can smash with limited volume (5-7 targets). It would be awesome (and borderline historic) if he could do that for a full season and it speaks to his talent, but again ... not sustainable.

Lockett was terrific pre-injury last year, I'll take that every Sunday and twice on Mondays! Volume be dammed!

That's perfectly fine;  Lockett was hyper efficient for awhile too... until he wasn't.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I am going to assume Adams is #1. Out of curiosity can you tell me where they have Golladay ranked?

9 in PPR rest of season for Golladay.

 

[Rig24]

That's fine; of course their probable reasoning is a) He will start getting that volume even when all Tannehill's weapons return b) he consistently can smash with limited volume (5-7 targets). It would be awesome (and borderline historic) if he could do that for a full season and it speaks to his talent, but again ... not sustainable.

That's perfectly fine;  Lockett was hyper efficient for awhile too... until he wasn't.

I get that he isn't getting that preferred 10+ WR1 targets, but 5-7 is misleading.  He has been in the 7-9 range each game this year.  I wouldn't expect that to change, and would hope it would only go up.

 

[The Frankman]

The 5-7 is more last year, but I'm also wondering what his target share will look like once Tennessee is fully healthy, Corey Davis comes back this week and the two games they're played together Davis has out-targeted Brown. Hayden Winks pretty much nails Brown in his Fantasy Usage Model notes (note it works off the last 4 weeks):

Player - A.J. Brown

Fantasy Usage - WR23 (14.2)

Fantasy Usage PPR Per Game - WR3 (23.7)

Context - Efficiency outlier on WR2/3 usage. Upside WR2.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

The 5-7 is more last year, but I'm also wondering what his target share will look like once Tennessee is fully healthy, Corey Davis comes back this week and the two games they're played together Davis has out-targeted Brown. Hayden Winks pretty much nails Brown in his Fantasy Usage Model notes (note it works off the last 4 weeks):

Corey Davis played on Sunday, went 6-35-1 on 10 targets.  AJB got 6-153-1 on 8 targets

 

[Banger]

Corey Davis played on Sunday, went 6-35-1 on 10 targets.  AJB got 6-153-1 on 8 targets

Corey Davis played last year as well when Brown was a rookie...how did that work out?  

Brown was has scored 4 tds in 3 games since returning from injury.  Brown>>>>Davis

 

[Guest]

I had some concerns over the offseason with him reaching near 2019 numbers due to many large chunk plays and TEN being more run-oriented.

But seeing Tannehills growth and the increased passing volume has strengthened my confidence in Brown being a WR1 going forward. Brown had 84 targets last year and is on pace for 128 through 16 games.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am kind of stumped over the points of contention here. One seems to be about which WR is getting more targets. The other seems to be about which of the two WR are better for fantasy. They aren't the same thing.

As far as I can see the two players are pretty close.

Tannehill over 6 games has completed 68.5% of his pass attempts. He has a adjusted yards per attempt of 8.9 

Corey Davis 4 games 29 tgt 21 rec 72.4% cr 241 yards 2 TD 8.3 ypt 

AJ Brown 4 games 32 tgt 23 rec 71.9% cr 332 yards 4 TD 10.4 ypt

I don't think there is much to argue about. Brown has had slightly more targets than Davis has and he is more efficient with those targets than Davis is. Both players are performing well and the targets are closer to the same for each WR than some thought it would be going into the season. Both myself and Bri were trying to reason with people who were getting too optimistic about Browns opportunity.

My doubts about Tannehill have pretty much dissipated now. He is playing at a similarly high level so far as he was last season. Not 10.2 adjusted yards per attempt but 8.9 is still 7th best in the league right now.

Browns yards per target exceeds Tannehills yards per attempt would be a reason why they should target him more.

The utilization Frankman is pointing to is interesting but people may be defensive about it drawing this conclusion 

Efficiency outlier on WR2/3 usage. Upside WR2.

A WR 2 can still be WR 13 overall though. I thought it was interesting. I would need to hear more about Frankmans point in comparing AJ Browns utilization to Tyler Lockett.

Brown has improved his catch rate by 10% compared to his rookie season. His 10.4 ypt is tied with Will Fuller for 12th best for all WR right now.

 

[The Frankman]

.... I feel like people aren't understanding my point. I'm not trashing Brown or saying Davis is better; I'm saying if you sum up his situation/target share it points to him having to be very efficient on limited opportunities. To his credit, he's been that so far. But again, his usage and the offensive philosophy point to it not being sustainable for WR1 fantasy production longterm; heck it's already outlined his usage is more of a WR2/3. So what happens if he can't bring down a 1-yard TD pass or catch a short slant and house it? Or y'know, he actually drops a ball?

For instance, I had DK Metcalf as an actual fantasy WR1 even though he's an efficiency outlier also due to a) much narrower passing tree in Seattle b) Russ being allowed to cook with the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL. Sunday he had Patrick Peterson on him while noted efficiency outlier Tyler Lockett had Dre Kirkpatrick on him. Russ decided to pepper Lockett with targets and while DK had some bad luck (TD called back due to penalty, miscommunication prevented a possible end zone attempt) and he had only 5 targets for 2/23. Your situation greatly determines your fantasy role sometimes and while Brown has evolved into a fantasy WR1 talent, his situation could use some work.

EDIT: just saw @Biabreakable's post. I'm not arguing Brown isn't as good as Davis, I have no idea why someone posted that. I've owned Tyler Lockett 2 of the last 3 years and owned AJ Brown midseason last year and drafted him this year. People always clamored the last 2 years for the Seattle O to stop being so run-heavy considering the amazing connection Russ had with Tyler Lockett... you can see it in the thread the tons of people salivating on what Lockett could do with a consistent 9-10+ targets a game/etc. Lockett had to be super efficient with his chances because he wasn't going to get many, which is kinda my argument with AJ Brown. I didn't think it was so controversial to say he's a fantasy WR2 with WR1 upside and I think people think  saying I think he's terrible.

 

[fightingillini]

I get that he isn't getting that preferred 10+ WR1 targets,

Number of WR with 10+ targets per game in whole year

2019 - 1 ( 5 had 150-159)

2018  - 5

2017 - 4  ( 1 had 159)

2016 - 2 ( 6 had 150-159)

So getting 10+ targets a game usually is in the top 5 WR of targets.  You don't need 10+ targets to get WR1 numbers. Brown is getting 7-9, so he's on pace for a 130 target season (if he played the full 16 games).  

AJ Brown has 23 rec on 32 targets, for a 72% catch rate.  That's above his last year catch rate of 62%.  Given is YPC is over 14 yards, he doen't need 10+ targets to post top 12 numbers.

Given his target share and current stats, he on pace for over 90 receptions for a 16 game year.  At his YPC that would be over 1300 yds receiving and 9-13 TDs.  That's elite numbers.

 

[fredsavage]

I’d say the Lockett comparison falls flat as Brown is a clearly superior talent. The whole regression idea is predicated on the notion that Brown isn’t really as good as his numbers suggest and that this outlier will be corrected. My stance is he’s a numerical outlier because he’s an outlier physically, with few rivals in terms of talent. 

 

[davearm]

.... I feel like people aren't understanding my point. I'm not trashing Brown or saying Davis is better; I'm saying if you sum up his situation/target share it points to him having to be very efficient on limited opportunities. To his credit, he's been that so far. But again, his usage and the offensive philosophy point to it not being sustainable for WR1 fantasy production longterm; heck it's already outlined his usage is more of a WR2/3. So what happens if he can't bring down a 1-yard TD pass or catch a short slant and house it? Or y'know, he actually drops a ball?

For instance, I had DK Metcalf as an actual fantasy WR1 even though he's an efficiency outlier also due to a) much narrower passing tree in Seattle b) Russ being allowed to cook with the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL. Sunday he had Patrick Peterson on him while noted efficiency outlier Tyler Lockett had Dre Kirkpatrick on him. Russ decided to pepper Lockett with targets and while DK had some bad luck (TD called back due to penalty, miscommunication prevented a possible end zone attempt) and he had only 5 targets for 2/23. Your situation greatly determines your fantasy role sometimes and while Brown has evolved into a fantasy WR1 talent, his situation could use some work.

EDIT: just saw @Biabreakable's post. I'm not arguing Brown isn't as good as Davis, I have no idea why someone posted that. I've owned Tyler Lockett 2 of the last 3 years and owned AJ Brown midseason last year and drafted him this year. People always clamored the last 2 years for the Seattle O to stop being so run-heavy considering the amazing connection Russ had with Tyler Lockett... you can see it in the thread the tons of people salivating on what Lockett could do with a consistent 9-10+ targets a game/etc. Lockett had to be super efficient with his chances because he wasn't going to get many, which is kinda my argument with AJ Brown. I didn't think it was so controversial to say he's a fantasy WR2 with WR1 upside and I think people think  saying I think he's terrible.

You could make this real easy and just go ahead and name the 16 or 20 WRs you'd rather have, that leave Brown being an "upside WR2".

 

[Team Smokin']

Checking on the Questionable status that just popped up 3:40 p.m. EST.

Knee

Precautionary or anything new here?

Edit: Not practicing today - TH

 

[Cowboysfan8]

FWIW AJ Brown is sitting in the #2 spot in FBG's latest rest-of-season WR rankings.

That’s........bold 

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Titans WR A.J. Brown was not spotted at practice Thursday. 

Brown was not listed on the team's Wednesday injury report. We're not sure if his Thursday absence is injury related, but a late-week injury would put Brown's availability in question for Week 8 against the Bengals. Brown drafters should hold tight until we get clarity from the team. 

SOURCE: Jim Wyatt on Twitter

Oct 29, 2020, 3:08 PM ET

 

[FGITLOTR]

Rotoworld:

rest for the thundering beast!

 

[grateful zed]

Just start him.

Nuff said.

 

[SkippaDaFlippa]

Lazy writing from Rotoworld. Correct me if I am wrong but this is the third straight week Brown has practiced in full on Wednesday, sat out Thursday, then return for another full practice on Friday. Just seems to be his new routine and a missed practice today should be very little cause of concern.

 

[Faust]

A.J. Brown (knee) returned to Friday's practice.

As expected. Brown caused a scare around fantasy circles Thursday, but sitting out mid-week is actually just his normal regimen. Fire him up as a WR1 in Week 8's second-highest implied total (52.5) against the Bengals.

SOURCE: Jim Wyatt on Twitter

Oct 30, 2020, 1:24 PM ET

 

[davearm]

That’s........bold 

Bold for sure.  As is DK Metcalf in the top spot.

 

[The Frankman]

This is still going on? Jesus Christ.

Anyway, Brown is in a smash spot. I hope getting 8+ targets is going to be a new normal for him and Tannehill (#1 in passing efficiency).

 

[The Frankman]

A.J. Brown caught 4-of-7 targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 8 loss to the Bengals. 

Brown now has five touchdowns in four games since his return from a bone bruise in his knee. Today's was a nine-yarder where Brown did all the work after the catch, breaking two tackles. Today was Brown's lowest yardage output of the season, but he has at least seven targets in all five of his 2020 appearances. He is emerging as an alpha WR1 before our eyes. The Bears are a tough Week 9 matchup, but Brown has earned WR1 benefit of the doubt.

- Rotoworld

A rare inefficient game from Tannehill but again playing in catchup script and where Davis had a huge game (and Humphries' injury) Brown still had some good looks and did work scoring his TD.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

A rare inefficient game fro Tannehill but again playing in catchup script and where Davis had a huge game (and Humphries injury) Brown still had some good looks and did work scoring his TD.

Agreed

I actually have Davis on my bench WR6, tried to cut him several times but can't justify it even owning AJB on a power running team, it's insane. 

 

[Teezee]

B-bu-but he doesn’t get volume..

 

[Rig24]

Didn't get a look until 2nd half I think...possible double teams I hope.

 

[The Frankman]

B-bu-but he doesn’t get volume..

7 targets isn't really WR1 volume my man; if Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins got 7 targets in a smash spot there would be riots. Not to mention he got a good number of them when the Titans were in catchup mode.

 

[Teezee]

Talent trumps volume. He can overcome the scheme. It’s what he does with his opportunities and the results that should have higher regard than common theory

 

[dkp993]

7 targets isn't really WR1 volume my man; if Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins got 7 targets in a smash spot there would be riots. Not to mention he got a good number of them when the Titans were in catchup mode.

Talent trumps volume. He can overcome the scheme. It’s what he does with his opportunities and the results that should have higher regard than common theory

So are you saying he’s more talented the Davante or Hop and can overcome the low volume?  I’m as big of a AJB fan as you’ll find but to think he doesn’t need targets is nuts.

Imo he needs to be force fed targets, like Devante or Hop,.  If they do he’ll produce like them I have no doubt, but until that happens he’ll be where he’s been.  Solid but not spectacular.  

 

[SayWhat?]

So are you saying he’s more talented the Davante or Hop and can overcome the low volume?  I’m as big of a AJB fan as you’ll find but to think he doesn’t need targets is nuts.

Imo he needs to be force fed targets, like Devante or Hop,.  If they do he’ll produce like them I have no doubt, but until that happens he’ll be where he’s been.  Solid but not spectacular.  

Wut?  In his 6 games after their bye last season, he was WR2 and averaged 21.3ppg.  This year his 5 games have resulted in 18.5ppg; which is WR8 in ppg.  Yeah, just solid I suppose.

(But I do agree they need to force it to him a bit more.  He’s that good.)

 

[dkp993]

Wut?  In his 6 games after their bye last season, he was WR2 and averaged 21.3ppg.  This year his 5 games have resulted in 18.5ppg; which is WR8 in ppg.  Yeah, just solid I suppose.

(But I do agree they need to force it to him a bit more.  He’s that good.)

Last years run he was spectacular. WR8 this year is solid.  It’s mid pack WR 1 territory.  

Again my point is with more targets he could be spectacular (top 3, 20-25 pts a game range) on a consistent basis, he’s that talented. That’s why it’s so frustrating to only see 5 to 7 targets a game. 

 

[FGITLOTR]

Last years run he was spectacular. WR8 this year is solid.  It’s mid pack WR 1 territory.  

Again my point is with more targets he could be spectacular (top 3, 20-25 pts a game range) on a consistent basis, he’s that talented. That’s why it’s so frustrating to only see 5 to 7 targets a game. 

I can’t believe some people don’t think he’s already a WR 1 at this point in his career. 

 

[The Frankman]

NFL WR1 of fantasy WR1? That's an important distinction that's being lost here.

 

[FGITLOTR]

NFL WR1 of fantasy WR1? That's an important distinction that's being lost here.

both. 

 

[The Frankman]

NFL WR1? Of course. Fantasy WR1? Not unless they narrow the passing tree or Tanny starts eyeing him up more.

 

[LawFitz]

NFL WR1? Of course. Fantasy WR1? Not unless they narrow the passing tree or Tanny starts eyeing him up more.

I keep hearing you say this, but since the midpoint of his rookie season, the numbers say he's been a fantasy WR1. Perhaps a sample size issue. Perhaps not.

 

[Rig24]

So far this season, Brown is 6th in points per game in my league.  

 

[brewer]

I don't know why everyone always gets hung up on WR1, WR2, etc.  If A.J. is on your team, he is in your lineup.  Call him whatever you like.

 

[Teezee]

B-bu-but volume tho..

Baby TO

 

[smbkrypt24]

B-bu-but volume tho..

Baby TO

He looks faster than everyone around him once he catches the ball.  YAC monster