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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (2 Viewers)

Starting over Godwin who has a tough match up as well, fighting for a playoff spot. Felt so much more confident about my WRs before the season lol.

 
I thought I'd post this analysis by Rotoworld's Warren Sharp here considering it impacts A.J. Brown more than any other Titans pass-catcher, and it re-enforces the central theme of being a A.J. Brown owner: he's always going to be shackled by the rigid philosophy of the O. Just to be clear; you can be a run-heavy team but he smart about when you run and when you pass, and having a cheat code like Derrick Henry can make you complacent about that.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

The intrigue in this game lies with how often Titans OC Arthur Smith wishes to pass the ball.

Last week, the Titans went 63% run against the Ravens on early downs in the first three quarters.

Runs gained just 3.4 YPC with a 35% success rate.

And the Titans fell down in a 21-10 deficit.

The Titans are one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL.  But they need to select their run/pass ratios based on strength of opponent’s run defense, not simply based on what they want to to do.

In their last 5 games, look at the Titans early down run vs pass ratio in the first half of the game, and examine the strength of those run defenses against early down runs on the season:

Week 7:    63% run vs the Steelers (#3 run defense)
Week 8:    63% run vs the Bengals (#15 run defense)
Week 9:    65% run vs the Bears (#1 run defense)
Week 10:    57% run vs the Colts (#7 run defense)
Week 11:    61% run vs the Ravens (#16 run defense)

Bear in mind that over the first half of the season (through week 6) the Titans were 52% run, which was the #6 most run heavy offense in the NFL.

That INCREASED from 52% run all the way up to 62% run, moving to #1 most run heavy offense, and a full 16% above league average (46%), despite the fact the Titans played three top-10 run defenses and zero run defenses that ranked outside the top half of the league.

In that first half of the season, the Titans went 5-0 and led at halftime by an average of 5.6 ppg.

Since that point, as they’ve ramped up their run rate despite facing strong run defenses, they are 2-3 and trailed at halftime by an average of 3.4 ppg.  

The Titans must start to pass the ball more often on early downs against good run defenses.  And the Colts are absolutely a good run defense.

Last week, the Packers wisely saw where the Colts were strong, and avoided it.  

On early downs in the first three quarters, the Packers passed the ball 58% of the time and Aaron Rodgers was 15/18, 9.2 YPA, with 72% success and 3 TDs.

In the Titans last game the Titans passed the ball on every first down on their opening drive and scored a TD.

But after that, they ran the ball on 65% of their early downs and only scored 10 more points.

While the Titans entered halftime with a lead, it was completely fraudulent:

The Colts didn’t punt at all in the 1st half and drove 45+ yards every time, getting inside the Titans 30 each drive.  The Titans should have trailed, but held a lead at halftime.

Thinking they were on the right track, the Titans turned up the run rate.

The Titans then went an insane 75% run on early downs in the 3rd quarter, but didn’t score a single point, and trailed by 11 entering the 4th quarter.

Incredibly, even down double digits in the 4th quarter, the Titans went an insane 60% runs on early downs as they were trying to comeback!

That’s 12 runs and only 8 passes, down double digits in the 4th quarter.

Collectively, early down runs in the first three quarters averaged just 4.4 YPC and 50% success.  

I’ll be fascinated to see the strategy Arthur Smith decides to bring to Indianapolis on Sunday.
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Don't know why I always struggle to want to play Brown...he is a stud...feels like when he has a bad game its because of the Titans...not Browns ability...

 
undercover said:
Don't know why I always struggle to want to play Brown...he is a stud...feels like when he has a bad game its because of the Titans...not Browns ability...
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Agreed...Play calling is terrible at best....passes I have seen lately seem to be behind whomever the qb is throwing the ball to if the WR/TE is moving.  Just never feel good to start him.  Three games vs Colts the numbers are terrible.  I think he sits on my bench today.

 
SanDawg said:
Agreed...Play calling is terrible at best....passes I have seen lately seem to be behind whomever the qb is throwing the ball to if the WR/TE is moving.  Just never feel good to start him.  Three games vs Colts the numbers are terrible.  I think he sits on my bench today.
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Wasn’t the last Colts game the one where he dropped what would’ve been a long TD down the sideline?

 
satch said:
Wasn’t the last Colts game the one where he dropped what would’ve been a long TD down the sideline?
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It was...tough catch and should have had it.  Then really didn't look his way much the rest of the game.  I may regret it but I'm putting him on the bench.  

 
A.J. Brown caught 4-of-6 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 12 win against the Colts. 

Brown had a classic A.J. Brown touchdown in the first half, taking a Ryan Tannehill pass on a crossing pattern and burning defenders for a 69-yard score. Brown tacked on a late touchdown on a disastrous onside kick by the Colts -- Brown grabbed the ball on one hand and ran 42 yards untouched for a score. Volume will always be an issue for Brown Tennessee's ultra-conservative offense. His explosiveness will keep him in the borderline WR1 conversation next week against a middling Cleveland secondary.

- Rotoworld
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Not great, but lets not worry until tomorrow (Friday).  I am with you the fact that he was in at the end means he should hopefully be good to go for week 13.

Beast.

 
Yes, but the hip ailment is new  🤷‍♂️ Let’s hope it was just precautionary and in line with getting rest on on Wed/Thurs 

 
Titans' A.J. Brown: Back at practice

1 hr ago |

Brown (hip) returned to practice Friday, John Glennon of BroadwaySportsMedia.com reports.

The wideout didn't practice Thursday, so his return to the field Friday bodes well for his Week 13 status. Friday's final injury report of the week will reveal whether Brown approaches Sunday's game against Cleveland listed as questionable, or minus an injury designation.
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No Jonnu Smith.  No Denzel Ward for Cle.  LFG.

 
Baby TO going to eat. In my Top 3 WR in dynasty moving forward.

DK and AJB will be talked about for a while both coming out of the same draft. DK's strength is his downfield ability where there are fewer defenders and can dominate the one on one. But like Tyreek, downfield opportunity is highly dependent on the ball placement ie: the QB. AJ dominates in the short to intermediate area, high probability plays where the majority of the game is decided. The underneath stuff is less reliant on a competent down field thrower. This makes him more compatible with average middle of the road QBs and will provide more value in the long run even despite change or injuries.

 
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Did he have a lost fumble in the game vs the CLE?  I saw the one near the goal line which was recovered for a score by a teammate.  However, I’m still being docked -2 for a lost fumble on CBS.  

 
A.J. Brown (ankle) is not practicing Wednesday.

Brown rolled his ankle in Week 13 against the Browns but returned after being helped off the field. He finished the game with 4-87 on seven targets. With the adrenaline now worn off and the swelling likely taking place, Brown is in question for Week 14 against the Jaguars. We'd bet he plays.

SOURCE: Jim Wyatt on Twitter

Dec 9, 2020, 4:24 PM ET
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A.J. Brown (ankle) did not practice Thursday. 

Brown was helped off the field after turning his ankle in Week 13 against the Browns. He returned to the game and caught four balls for 87 yards. Brown was always going to be a long shot to practice in full this week but the DNP status is concerning. Another DNP on Friday and fantasy players might want to make alternative plans for Week 14. Corey Davis, who has outproduced Brown lately, would get a target bump if Brown is inactive this week against the Jaguars. 

RELATED: 

Corey Davis

SOURCE: Adam Caplan on Twitter 

Dec 10, 2020, 4:25 PM ET
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A.J. Brown (ankle) returned to practice Friday. 

Brown is expected to play this week against the Jaguars. He rolled his ankle last week against the Browns but only missed a few plays before returning to the game. Brown and teammate Corey Davis are WR2 options against a middle-of-the-road Jacksonville secondary. 

SOURCE: John Glennon on Twitter 

Dec 11, 2020, 1:24 PM ET
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I have Corey Davis and Tannehill this week and think it's better to have Brown play. Here's hoping there's plenty of QB/WR points to make everyone happy! 😁

 
A.J. Brown caught 7-of-9 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 14 win over the Jaguars. 

There was a scary moment where Brown seemed to injure his ankle, but he quickly shook it off. It appeared early Brown would finally post his first 10-target game of the year, though he still ended up stuck on nine for the third time. The yards were his second most while the catches matched a season high. Brown's score was a 37-yard strike on a flea flicker where he removed Jags CB Sidney Jones' soul from his body. In 1-on-1 coverage, Brown made an over-the-shoulder, one-handed grab. Just ridiculous from the league's pre-eminent human highlight reel. More volume would be nice, but Brown keeps having WR1 days on the looks he's getting. He has a dream matchup for the second week of the fantasy playoffs in the completely defenseless Lions. Brown will push for top-three status in the Week 15 rankings. 

- Rotoworld
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A.J. Brown (ankle) was limited during Wednesday's practice.

Brown shook off the ankle issue on Sunday en route to possing 112 yards and a touchdown on seven catches, so it would be a shock if he missed Week 15's matchup against the Lions. It is a fantastic spot for Brown in the fantasy semifinals, as the Lions continue to lose defensive pieces to injured reserve, including rookie cornerback Jeff Okudah.

Dec 16, 2020, 8:03 PM ET
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Ministry of Pain said:
Oh please, NO!!!
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Yeah it's kind of been like this for a few weeks. I've noticed the last couple games he seems to really jam up his knee and limp off causing me to release a Christmas Story OH FUDDDDGGGGEEEEEE but then he comes back in like nothing happened.

My guess is he has a pain management thing going on with knee and will have some off season surgery.

 
The fact that he put in a limited practice in on Wednesday is GREAT news. He hasn’t practiced on a Wednesday, even in a limited fashion, for quite some time. Also, I’ve noticed that when he’s active on Twitter, you can be assured he’s going to be out there. As far as injury scares go, he’s the new Ben R. 

 
A.J. Brown (ankle) was downgraded to "DNP" for Thursday's practice.

This would normally be cause for alarm, but it has become part of AJB's routine. Despite having zero 10-target games this season, Brown is fully established as one of the highest-upside WR1s in all of fantasy football. The Titans are a smash spot for the semifinals. 

Dec 17, 2020, 4:25 PM ET
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