What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

WR Alec Pierce, IND (2 Viewers)

This feels like the Corderelle Patterson effect from a couple years ago when he was on the Falcons. No one believed he was a real RB until finally someone in our league said F it. He's scoring points and started him the rest of the way.
 
Last edited:
It's nice Pierce has a QB that can finally get him the ball when he breaks open 40 yards downfield, but watch his rookie year highlights. Some of these routes/contested catches are eye-opening. His catch radius is ridiculous. If you haven't been paying attention, you might think all he can do is get deep like Shaheed. If you've slept on him, you're going to regret it if you don't already. Going back to his rookie year, I've always gotten AJ Green vibes from the guy. As his opportunities will undoubtedly grow, so will his stat lines.

 
It's nice Pierce has a QB that can finally get him the ball when he breaks open 40 yards downfield, but watch his rookie year highlights. Some of these routes/contested catches are eye-opening. His catch radius is ridiculous. If you haven't been paying attention, you might think all he can do is get deep like Shaheed. If you've slept on him, you're going to regret it if you don't already. Going back to his rookie year, I've always gotten AJ Green vibes from the guy. As his opportunities will undoubtedly grow, so will his stat lines.

You make a good point, I have thought it's been very weird that Pierce is being used like a 100% deep threat, because I thought I remembered him being an intermediate possession guy snagging balls out of the air even when off-target ... basically the polar opposite of a deep shot guy.
 
This guy's stat line so far this season is hilarious.
You say that like 22 yards per target isn't sustainable!
Not sustainable, all agree. One of two things will happen. There will be an efficiency regression, or his opportunities will grow and he'll reach those numbers in other ways. There's more than one way to skin a cat, and Pierce seems to have plenty of tools in his bag.
 
It's nice Pierce has a QB that can finally get him the ball when he breaks open 40 yards downfield, but watch his rookie year highlights. Some of these routes/contested catches are eye-opening. His catch radius is ridiculous. If you haven't been paying attention, you might think all he can do is get deep like Shaheed. If you've slept on him, you're going to regret it if you don't already. Going back to his rookie year, I've always gotten AJ Green vibes from the guy. As his opportunities will undoubtedly grow, so will his stat lines.

You make a good point, I have thought it's been very weird that Pierce is being used like a 100% deep threat, because I thought I remembered him being an intermediate possession guy snagging balls out of the air even when off-target ... basically the polar opposite of a deep shot guy.
The difference is the QB he's playing with. A cooked Matt Ryan and a green Sam Ehlinger vs a rocket arm and inexperienced AR. Flacco is an upgrade from a pure passing standpoint, but Pierce still isn't being asked to do much right now other than get deep which he's able to do despite every team knowing that's what he wants to do. If Pittman does miss time, it's going to be really interesting to see how they use Pierce. He feels like a player that can do everything Pittman can on top of the ability to get over the top like few in the NFL can. The guy is a star in the making. Believe your eyes.
 
"... Pierce still isn't being asked to do much right now other than get deep which he's able to do despite every team knowing that's what he wants to do. ... The guy is a star in the making. Believe your eyes."
Reviewing the tape you posted above, Pierce displays an awareness that proves difference-making. Notably, always seems to know when to get his eyes back to the ball. Elite at maintaining his focus through contact & excellent ball skills. Nothing special after the catch. Flacco, it's only a couple throws but his decision-to-release appears very time intensive & they're hanging.

Derek Brown's week 6 primer a lot of emphasis is placed on TEN pass defense & have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. But they've faced Caleb Williams making his NFL debut, Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis & Tyler Huntley. Very much agree that what he's been asked to do isn't necessarily all he can do. With Pittman out & TEN getting an extended look at them, Pierce utilized at all three levels would seem to make sense.

 
James Boyd
#Colts WRs coach Reggie Wayne on Alec Pierce:

“Y’all was ready to shut down on Alec. All of y’all. I was in the battlefield with him, and now everybody wanna buy him cake.”

“He busts his *** every day. No complaints. … He’s been the ultimate pro. He does everything right.”
 
James Boyd
#Colts QB Joe Flacco raving about WR Alec Pierce:

“ … he had zero catches through the first 3.5 quarters, basically, and then all of a sudden he gets his number called like three times in a row and he just hits big time, each one of them — that says a lot about who he is.”
 
that week 1, 70 air yard flat footed pass to pierce was sick. you have to watch it twice because it was so awesome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JglUnuuSYfc
i bet something like that happens 2 more times. best of luck guessing when.... personally i used up my start pierce and hope for best luck last week.
One of the more impressive throws of all time. Unfortunately it is his ability to make easy throws look hard that limits this offense with him behind the wheel.
 
Alec Pierce was carted away from Colts practice after suffering an apparent leg injury on Sunday.

FOX59’s Mike Chappell reports Pierce left practice early for an examination in the locker room. He then returned to the field and “did some agility work,” before limping off and being taken back to the locker room by cart. Pierce’s injury coincides with Adonai Mitchell making “strides” in his development.

 
Last edited:
Nate Tice
Alec Pierce has added real layers to his game. But his calling card is still being one of the top downfield threats in the NFL. Teams are going to be lining up to pay him this spring (yes, really).

Bill Barnwell
In a league where guys like Dyami Brown and Tutu Atwell were getting $10 million this offseason, Pierce is going to get a lot more.

Dalton Feely
He's been awesome. A true vertical threat. Wins contested catches by using great body positioning in 1v1 spots. Isn't a 'separator' but the dude is a baller if used the right role
 
Where's everybody at on excitement level here?

#11 in the NFL in rec yards per game.
Generally thought of as just a hit or miss deep threat, but has 28 targets in the last 3 games.
He's a big part of one of the best offenses in the league.

Stolen from somebody else, but if AD Mitchell was doing exactly what Pierce is doing right now, the fantasy world would be going crazy.

Colts basically dumping AD because he's simply not as good as Pierce also seems to be positive sign.

A lot of competition for targets, and you'd like to see some TD's too (he had 7 last year), but it feels like he could be pretty big down the stretch. Young player getting better in a good offense.
 
Where's everybody at on excitement level here?

#11 in the NFL in rec yards per game.
Generally thought of as just a hit or miss deep threat, but has 28 targets in the last 3 games.
He's a big part of one of the best offenses in the league.

Stolen from somebody else, but if AD Mitchell was doing exactly what Pierce is doing right now, the fantasy world would be going crazy.

Colts basically dumping AD because he's simply not as good as Pierce also seems to be positive sign.

A lot of competition for targets, and you'd like to see some TD's too (he had 7 last year), but it feels like he could be pretty big down the stretch. Young player getting better in a good offense.
0 tds and a ton of weapons to feed is the reason why he is still sitting on waivers wires in some leagues.
 
Where's everybody at on excitement level here?

#11 in the NFL in rec yards per game.
Generally thought of as just a hit or miss deep threat, but has 28 targets in the last 3 games.
He's a big part of one of the best offenses in the league.

Stolen from somebody else, but if AD Mitchell was doing exactly what Pierce is doing right now, the fantasy world would be going crazy.

Colts basically dumping AD because he's simply not as good as Pierce also seems to be positive sign.

A lot of competition for targets, and you'd like to see some TD's too (he had 7 last year), but it feels like he could be pretty big down the stretch. Young player getting better in a good offense.
He is their big play weapon. I think he is solid as a WR3 or 4, but not much upside over the long haul (weekly upside yes).
 
Last edited:
Where's everybody at on excitement level here?

#11 in the NFL in rec yards per game.
Generally thought of as just a hit or miss deep threat, but has 28 targets in the last 3 games.
He's a big part of one of the best offenses in the league.

Stolen from somebody else, but if AD Mitchell was doing exactly what Pierce is doing right now, the fantasy world would be going crazy.

Colts basically dumping AD because he's simply not as good as Pierce also seems to be positive sign.

A lot of competition for targets, and you'd like to see some TD's too (he had 7 last year), but it feels like he could be pretty big down the stretch. Young player getting better in a good offense.
0 tds and a ton of weapons to feed is the reason why he is still sitting on waivers wires in some leagues.
He’s a great flex play or guy to plug in for deeper leagues
 
I started him last week as WR4 (flex2 spot) in place of Garrett Wilson (bye), and starting him again this week with Rashee Rice on bye. Glad I added him a few weeks ago. Happy with his production and future potential as well.
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
 
I started him last week as WR4 (flex2 spot) in place of Garrett Wilson (bye), and starting him again this week with Rashee Rice on bye. Glad I added him a few weeks ago. Happy with his production and future potential as well.
The matchup was there last week and he produced.

He's definitely moving beyond just being a one trick pony. Have to think Indy realized this and that's one reason why AD is gone.

ATL secondary much tougher though. Think I have no choice but to start him, but lowering expectations.
 
#1 WR in that offense is the TE Tyler Warren. After that it's Pittman. Josh Downs is settling in. Pierce will maintain his role as the deep threat. They want to run the ball 60% of the time so Pierce will get his 4 or 5 targets a game and end up with 2 catches for 75 yards.
 
#1 WR in that offense is the TE Tyler Warren. After that it's Pittman. Josh Downs is settling in. Pierce will maintain his role as the deep threat. They want to run the ball 60% of the time so Pierce will get his 4 or 5 targets a game and end up with 2 catches for 75 yards.
Just saw that Pierce has 45 targets on the year with 24 receptions for 501 yds. Downs has almost the exact same of targets with 46 but he has 35 receptions for 313 yards. Pierce is getting the deep targets and is averaging over 20 yards per. Downs is getting more of the underneath and intermediate routes.
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
Pierce hasn't been getting the TDs, but his usage is there and more than just a shot downfield. It's just a matter of time before he scores and could definitely happen in Germany.
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
Pierce hasn't been getting the TDs, but his usage is there and more than just a shot downfield. It's just a matter of time before he scores and could definitely happen in Germany.
Hope so. Just traded away Marks for him. My last trade involved me getting Travis Hunter the day before his injury. Just a heads up.
 
I started him last week as WR4 (flex2 spot) in place of Garrett Wilson (bye), and starting him again this week with Rashee Rice on bye. Glad I added him a few weeks ago. Happy with his production and future potential as well.
The matchup was there last week and he produced.

He's definitely moving beyond just being a one trick pony. Have to think Indy realized this and that's one reason why AD is gone.

ATL secondary much tougher though. Think I have no choice but to start him, but lowering expectations.
The reason Mitchell is gone is because he lost his role after he decided to gift the opposing team the ball instead of take a TD.
 
I started him last week as WR4 (flex2 spot) in place of Garrett Wilson (bye), and starting him again this week with Rashee Rice on bye. Glad I added him a few weeks ago. Happy with his production and future potential as well.
The matchup was there last week and he produced.

He's definitely moving beyond just being a one trick pony. Have to think Indy realized this and that's one reason why AD is gone.

ATL secondary much tougher though. Think I have no choice but to start him, but lowering expectations.
The reason Mitchell is gone is because he lost his role after he decided to gift the opposing team the ball instead of take a TD.
It's more than that. He would have been far down the totem pole anyway, behind Pittman, Downs, Warren, and Pierce, regardless of that play or not.
 
I started him last week as WR4 (flex2 spot) in place of Garrett Wilson (bye), and starting him again this week with Rashee Rice on bye. Glad I added him a few weeks ago. Happy with his production and future potential as well.
The matchup was there last week and he produced.

He's definitely moving beyond just being a one trick pony. Have to think Indy realized this and that's one reason why AD is gone.

ATL secondary much tougher though. Think I have no choice but to start him, but lowering expectations.
The reason Mitchell is gone is because he lost his role after he decided to gift the opposing team the ball instead of take a TD.
It's more than that. He would have been far down the totem pole anyway, behind Pittman, Downs, Warren, and Pierce, regardless of that play or not.
I don't think you are responding to the same think I am. He had a minor role to start this year (first 4 games) which looked like it was growing until he made that boneheaded play. After that he had 1 catch through the next 5 games. He lost his role.

First 4 games:
7 catches for 137
Targets= 12

Bonehead play

Next 5 games:
1 catch for 8 yards
Targets = 3
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
That happens when you get touchdowns but less than 60 yards a game. The touchdown scoring is a candidate for regression. Downs is basically a wandale role. Give me the adot and down the field guy since the touchdowns should come
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
Pierce hasn't been getting the TDs, but his usage is there and more than just a shot downfield. It's just a matter of time before he scores and could definitely happen in Germany.
I've generally ignored him as just a boom-bust deep threat guy, but 28 targets in 3 games is cause for notice, I think.
Including the 1st 2 double digit target games of his career.

A lot of mouthes to feed, but clearly a key piece on a great offense. Seems like a 25 YO that is getting better.

If the slight uptick in usage holds, and he gets some better TD luck, he could be a hit for fantasy down the stretch.
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
Pierce hasn't been getting the TDs, but his usage is there and more than just a shot downfield. It's just a matter of time before he scores and could definitely happen in Germany.
I've generally ignored him as just a boom-bust deep threat guy, but 28 targets in 3 games is cause for notice, I think.
Including the 1st 2 double digit target games of his career.

A lot of mouthes to feed, but clearly a key piece on a great offense. Seems like a 25 YO that is getting better.

If the slight uptick in usage holds, and he gets some better TD luck, he could be a hit for fantasy down the stretch.
Last game would be a bit of an anomaly as the colts were downs early and looking for the comeback. The colts recipe for success will not be through Pierce and the deep ball. Sure a few a game to keep the defense honest.
 
Scott Barrett
Alec Pierce, very quietly, ranks 12th in receiving yards per game (71.6). He's exceeded 65 receiving yards in 5 of 7 games this year.

And Pierce has been at his best most recently. Over the last three weeks, Pierce ranks 8th among all WRs in targets (27), ranks 2nd in receiving yards (282), and leads in air yards by a mile:

1. Alec Pierce (577)
2. Troy Franklin (486)
3. Romeo Doubs (362)

On Caesar's Sportsbook, Pierce's over/under is set at 54.5 receiving yards. That feels fairly lockish, but I'd actually prefer to ladder Pierce, where Caesar's will pay out +900 if Pierce gets 120 receiving yards.

One of our biggest edges at @FantasyPtsData is our access to coverage shell data. Although it's highly predictive, other projection providers aren't looking at this, sportsbooks aren't using this when setting lines.

As evidenced below, Pierce is crushing single-high coverage this year. Only Puka Nacua has been better. And Pierce's TPRR explodes from 0.13 to 0.31 against it.

Atlanta deploys single-high coverage 73% of the time. No one else is over 65%.
 
Think this guy could be must start given his role on the team and Danny dropping dimes downfield. Warren is receiving increased attention now apparently and downs is a low upside guy.
Low upside downs outscored him the last 3 weeks
Pierce hasn't been getting the TDs, but his usage is there and more than just a shot downfield. It's just a matter of time before he scores and could definitely happen in Germany.
I've generally ignored him as just a boom-bust deep threat guy, but 28 targets in 3 games is cause for notice, I think.
Including the 1st 2 double digit target games of his career.

A lot of mouthes to feed, but clearly a key piece on a great offense. Seems like a 25 YO that is getting better.

If the slight uptick in usage holds, and he gets some better TD luck, he could be a hit for fantasy down the stretch.
Last game would be a bit of an anomaly as the colts were downs early and looking for the comeback. The colts recipe for success will not be through Pierce and the deep ball. Sure a few a game to keep the defense honest.
He also had 10 targets against the Chargers in a game they were in control of throughout.

He may very well got right back to what he always has been. But if things didn't change, this fantasy football stuff would be pretty easy and boring.
 
The Falcons use single-high safety coverages more than any team (70+ %) and Pierce eats that up. I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipses 120 yards and 2 TDs this week.

This is the exact reason why I picked him up to start this week in a major pinch. If he hits those numbers, it'll be a pants-off/dance-off in my household. I'm, at least, hoping for his first TD of the season.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top