WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (3 Viewers)

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

I have Brown and Brown right next to each other in redraft rankings - WR8/9

JJ-Chase-Kupp-Hill Rd 1, Lamb-Diggs-Adams & the Browns Rd 2

we're in the wrong thread for this, though

Not anymore,

I only have JJ-Chase-Hill-Lamb ahead of the Browns. Kupp and Stafford coming off injuries worry me. Diggs current attitude worries me. Adams QB situation worries me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

I have Brown and Brown right next to each other in redraft rankings - WR8/9

JJ-Chase-Kupp-Hill Rd 1, Lamb-Diggs-Adams & the Browns Rd 2

we're in the wrong thread for this, though

Not anymore,

I only have JJ-Chase-Hill-Lamb ahead of the Browns. Kupp and Stafford coming off injuries worry me. Diggs current attitude worries me. Adams QB situation worries me.

Same. And Hill is tied to Tua, who could have a head full of pudding with a couple more hits. It’s concerning.

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

I have Brown and Brown right next to each other in redraft rankings - WR8/9

JJ-Chase-Kupp-Hill Rd 1, Lamb-Diggs-Adams & the Browns Rd 2

we're in the wrong thread for this, though

Not anymore,

I only have JJ-Chase-Hill-Lamb ahead of the Browns. Kupp and Stafford coming off injuries worry me. Diggs current attitude worries me. Adams QB situation worries me.

Same. And Hill is tied to Tua, who could have a head full of pudding with a couple more hits. It’s concerning.

Yeah I get the idea of a downgrade there but Hill is too good to downgrade. I can’t bet against him.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not anymore,

sorry on mobile on the fly thought we were still in the Monty thread

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah I get the idea of a downgrade there but Hill is too good to downgrade. I can’t bet against him.

It’s just enough for me to knock him out (No pun intended.) of the Lamb tier.

I have it JJ/Chase then Lamb, then a new tier with Hill, AJB, ARSB, and maybe in that order.

 

[Ilov80s]

Not anymore,

sorry on mobile on the fly thought we were still in the Monty thread

No you were right. I just copied the convo and moved it here.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah I get the idea of a downgrade there but Hill is too good to downgrade. I can’t bet against him.

It’s just enough for me to knock him out (No pun intended.) of the Lamb tier.

I have it JJ/Chase then Lamb, then a new tier with Hill, AJB, ARSB, and maybe in that order.

Very fair ranking. I just think Hill has a higher ceiling than Lamb.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah I get the idea of a downgrade there but Hill is too good to downgrade. I can’t bet against him.

It’s just enough for me to knock him out (No pun intended.) of the Lamb tier.

I have it JJ/Chase then Lamb, then a new tier with Hill, AJB, ARSB, and maybe in that order.

Very fair ranking. I just think Hill has a higher ceiling than Lamb.

Probably does - he has Waddle while AJB has DSmith, and Lamb has…uh, Gallup? Cooks? No real Robin to Lamb’s Batman.

That’s why I have Lamb a little higher.

But to each their own - I certainly won’t fault you for that ranking, and if you ask me on a different day I might change my mind.

Hill is still the best deep threat in the game (JJ/Chase not withstanding), and he’s a home run hitter. Hit ceiling is crazy good. I see his floor a little lower than either AJB or Lamb though.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah I get the idea of a downgrade there but Hill is too good to downgrade. I can’t bet against him.

It’s just enough for me to knock him out (No pun intended.) of the Lamb tier.

I have it JJ/Chase then Lamb, then a new tier with Hill, AJB, ARSB, and maybe in that order.

Very fair ranking. I just think Hill has a higher ceiling than Lamb.

Probably does - he has Waddle while AJB has DSmith, and Lamb has…uh, Gallup? Cooks? No real Robin to Lamb’s Batman.

That’s why I have Lamb a little higher.

But to each their own - I certainly won’t fault you for that ranking, and if you ask me on a different day I might change my mind.

Hill is still the best deep threat in the game (JJ/Chase not withstanding), and he’s a home run hitter. Hit ceiling is crazy good. I see his floor a little lower than either AJB or Lamb though.

Very fair. I love Lamb and his target path is beautiful. I just think Tyreek is like 2 tiers better as a player.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Very fair. I love Lamb and his target path is beautiful. I just think Tyreek is like 2 tiers better as a player.

He’s also hitting that age where I worry about older speed-based players and soft tissue injuries.

Hammies can be problematic. Not predicting, just saying - the mileage adds up.

He seems to take great care of himself, but Father Time is undefeated.

 

[Faust]

Amon-Ra St. Brown said he wants to used more as a downfield pass catcher this season.​

St. Brown, a slot guy who has dominated the short and intermediate parts of the field over his first two NFL seasons, told reporters he wants more deep looks in 2023. Lions receivers coach Antwaan Randle El said he "has seen subtle growth from St. Brown that could help him in his quest." A mere 6.5 percent of St. Brown's 2022 targets were over 20 yards downfield, among the lowest rates in the league. He could see a little more downfield action in 2023, though fantasy managers should expect his average depth of target (aDOT) to once again hover around seven. If the Lions force the issue with St. Brown as a deep threat, his fantasy production could become more volatile than it was in 2021 and 2022.
SOURCE: Freep.com
Jun 20, 2023, 8:38 AM ET

 

[Faust]

Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown still keeps notebook of 16 WRs drafted before him: 'It's something I'll never forget'

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dude loves trolling the NFC North

Been putting in work with his brother and Jamo this week, working on releases per their respective social media accounts. One of the accounts posting is a biz acct run by papa John Brown. For anyone worried about Williams, nothing makes me happier than knowing Jameson is spending significant time around that family.

ARSB & Jamo training together

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

“[Amon-Ra] St. Brown was the best player on the field Tuesday and it wasn’t particularly close. He essentially won every ball thrown his way.”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1683955464520826881?s=21

 

[The Finist]

.

 

[Faust]

Eric Woodward @E_Woodyard

#Lions OC Ben Johnson said he got a text from Jared Goff over the summer after a throwing session with Amon-Ra St. Brown that said: "St. Brown. Huge year."

https://twitter.com/e_woodyard/status/1684174377883955207?s=21

 

[DeaLerZ]

the more and more I research this guy.. he is like "Cooper Kupp" lite. 425 yards after the catch. The first half of the season the Lions weren't using him correctly. He was running a lot of deeper routes, which doesn't make any sense. Once they figured out the right way to use his skill set by the end of the season he exploded. They also started winning games and he was a big factor in this. Those 425 yards after the catch were 20th in the NFL among receivers. I would argue that based on his skill set that he could be top 5 in that category this year. This is a guy that can help win championships because he is being undervalued. Super pumped to watch him this year!

all these fantasy football experts calling him cooper kupp lite now. I called him that at the beginning of last season

 

[rockaction]

all these fantasy football experts calling him cooper kupp lite now. I called him that at the beginning of last season

Welcome to the Shark Pool, where you get to anonymously post good things, receive no credit, and succumb to the whim of "experts" all in one fell swoop. Then again, can you imagine if you had every prediction in writing and somebody out there taking receipts on it? No fun.

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

"(Amon-ra) St. Brown added another touchdown on the starters’ final drive of the day, by the way, and finished with nine catches from Goff overall -- matching the rest of the team combined." #OnePride

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1687159937426735118?s=21

 

[Chaka]

all these fantasy football experts calling him cooper kupp lite now. I called him that at the beginning of last season

Welcome to the Shark Pool, where you get to anonymously post good things, receive no credit, and succumb to the whim of "experts" all in one fell swoop. Then again, can you imagine if you had every prediction in writing and somebody out there taking receipts on it? No fun.

I just don't understand why people say "lite". Dude has had a massive start to his career, Kupp didn't match ARSB until years 3-4.

Love Kupp but it seems like the sky's the limit for ARSB as well. The only thing holding him back is the fact there may be a lot of other mouths to feed on the Lions offense.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

just don't understand why people say "lite". Dude has had a massive start to his career, Kupp didn't match ARSB until years 3-4.

Love Kupp but it seems like the sky's the limit for ARSB as well. The only thing holding him back is the fact there may be a lot of other mouths to feed on the Lions offense.

Right now it's a coup!e of rookies at RB and TE, eventually there will be Jamo. But the rest of the WR room is somewhat suspect. Goff loves the guy and Amon should always be a target hog.

 

[Chaka]

just don't understand why people say "lite". Dude has had a massive start to his career, Kupp didn't match ARSB until years 3-4.

Love Kupp but it seems like the sky's the limit for ARSB as well. The only thing holding him back is the fact there may be a lot of other mouths to feed on the Lions offense.

Right now it's a coup!e of rookies at RB and TE, eventually there will be Jamo. But the rest of the WR room is somewhat suspect. Goff loves the guy and Amon should always be a target hog.

Target hog, sure but anything like Kupp's 191 targets in 2021 seems unlikely.

ARSB probably lands in the 145-155 target range IMO. Top 10 almost certainly but I don't see him leading the league.

 

[King of the Jungle]

just don't understand why people say "lite". Dude has had a massive start to his career, Kupp didn't match ARSB until years 3-4.

Love Kupp but it seems like the sky's the limit for ARSB as well. The only thing holding him back is the fact there may be a lot of other mouths to feed on the Lions offense.

Right now it's a coup!e of rookies at RB and TE, eventually there will be Jamo. But the rest of the WR room is somewhat suspect. Goff loves the guy and Amon should always be a target hog.

Target hog, sure but anything like Kupp's 191 targets in 2021 seems unlikely.

ARSB probably lands in the 145-155 target range IMO. Top 10 almost certainly but I don't see him leading the league.

He had 146 last year while missing a game and was gimpy for 2-3 more. Health will be a big factor obviously but I would not at all be surprised if he led the league in targets. 191 though?…doubt it.

 

[Dez]

I have a feeling we are too low on him.

Nailed it. I did take him in the middle of 2nd round of my FFPC rookie draft and I barely missed him by 1 pick in another 2nd round which hurts every day.

I remember those former guys who used to have a FBG dynasty show whatever their names were saying not to take ARSB because he was a 4th round pick since 4th and later rounds picks almost never hit. They said you can't draft a 4th round WR in the 2nd round of a rookie draft it is basically a waste of a pick.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

remember those former guys who used to have a FBG dynasty show whatever their names were saying not to take ARSB because he was a 4th round pick since 4th and later rounds picks almost never hit. They said you can't draft a 4th round WR in the 2nd round of a rookie draft it is basically a waste of a pick.

Right, very lazy analysis on their part. Each player is an individual case.

 

[Ilov80s]

Eric Woodward @E_Woodyard

#Lions OC Ben Johnson said he got a text from Jared Goff over the summer after a throwing session with Amon-Ra St. Brown that said: "St. Brown. Huge year."

https://twitter.com/e_woodyard/status/1684174377883955207?s=21

I mean look how good he has been and then look at his upbringing and mentality. You think he spends a single day focused on anything but getting stronger, faster, better? He was counting off the WRs drafted ahead of him, I bet now he is looking at that NFL 100 list and aiming at all the WRs ranked ahead of him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Eric Woodward @E_Woodyard

#Lions OC Ben Johnson said he got a text from Jared Goff over the summer after a throwing session with Amon-Ra St. Brown that said: "St. Brown. Huge year."

https://twitter.com/e_woodyard/status/1684174377883955207?s=21

I mean look how good he has been and then look at his upbringing and mentality. You think he spends a single day focused on anything but getting stronger, faster, better? He was counting off the WRs drafted ahead of him, I bet now he is looking at that NFL 100 list and aiming at all the WRs ranked ahead of him.

Huge fan. His brother was a disappointment though.

 

[Ilov80s]

Eric Woodward @E_Woodyard

#Lions OC Ben Johnson said he got a text from Jared Goff over the summer after a throwing session with Amon-Ra St. Brown that said: "St. Brown. Huge year."

https://twitter.com/e_woodyard/status/1684174377883955207?s=21

I mean look how good he has been and then look at his upbringing and mentality. You think he spends a single day focused on anything but getting stronger, faster, better? He was counting off the WRs drafted ahead of him, I bet now he is looking at that NFL 100 list and aiming at all the WRs ranked ahead of him.

Huge fan. His brother was a disappointment though.

Amon was always the best of the brothers. In the grand scheme of things, Eq played football at Notre Dame, is entering his 6th NFL season and has made almost $5 million playing pro football which to me sounds like the kind of disappointment most people would dream of.

 

[Da Franchise]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

He is foundational to everything they're trying to do. He and Goff spent several weeks together between OTAs and TC getting in extra work (along with other WRs), Goff texted OC Ben Johnson "Amon-Ra. Huge year."

Had 30 snaps over a 4 week period last year [while dealing with an ankle sprain]. DNP, 10, bye, 20. Team went 0-3 and scored 6 points in those two limited games. Over that span he had 7 targets and went 5-22-0 playing hurt. 139 targets in the other 14 g (10/g.)

If you extrapolate his 14 healthy g totals it’s 123-1383-7.

TDs are variable and unpredictable, but consider how unlucky he was in 2022.

• WK 3 - 30 yard reception, tackled on 2, Jamaal Williams scored next play
• WK 10 - 13 yard reception, tackled less than a foot from end zone, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 11 - 4 yard reception, tackled inside 1, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 13, 12 yard reception, tackled at 1, Jamaal scored next play

Heard a podcast today and they were like “well he’s steady every week, but he’s not going to finish with 1400+ yards or 10 TDs.” I’m looking at last years game logs and thinking that don’t sound right.

He’s got the right QB, a brilliant OC, & the dude looks at his season goals - along with those 16 WRs drafted before him - in his notebook every day before he heads out to practice. Mans so freaking petty, drives himself with perceived slights like Jordan did.

Go ahead, bet against him.

 

[kutta]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

He is foundational to everything they're trying to do. He and Goff spent several weeks together between OTAs and TC getting in extra work (along with other WRs), Goff texted OC Ben Johnson "Amon-Ra. Huge year."

Had 30 snaps over a 4 week period last year [while dealing with an ankle sprain]. DNP, 10, bye, 20. Team went 0-3 and scored 6 points in those two limited games. Over that span he had 7 targets and went 5-22-0 playing hurt. 139 targets in the other 14 g (10/g.)

If you extrapolate his 14 healthy g totals it’s 123-1383-7.

TDs are variable and unpredictable, but consider how unlucky he was in 2022.

• WK 3 - 30 yard reception, tackled on 2, Jamaal Williams scored next play
• WK 10 - 13 yard reception, tackled less than a foot from end zone, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 11 - 4 yard reception, tackled inside 1, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 13, 12 yard reception, tackled at 1, Jamaal scored next play

Heard a podcast today and they were like “well he’s steady every week, but he’s not going to finish with 1400+ yards or 10 TDs.” I’m looking at last years game logs and thinking that don’t sound right.

He’s got the right QB, a brilliant OC, & the dude looks at his season goals - along with those 16 WRs drafted before him - in his notebook every day before he heads out to practice. Mans so freaking petty, drives himself with perceived slights like Jordan did.

Go ahead, bet against him.

I totally agree.

And, last year was only year two. He’s going to continue to improve. This could be a big one for him.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

He is foundational to everything they're trying to do. He and Goff spent several weeks together between OTAs and TC getting in extra work (along with other WRs), Goff texted OC Ben Johnson "Amon-Ra. Huge year."

Had 30 snaps over a 4 week period last year [while dealing with an ankle sprain]. DNP, 10, bye, 20. Team went 0-3 and scored 6 points in those two limited games. Over that span he had 7 targets and went 5-22-0 playing hurt. 139 targets in the other 14 g (10/g.)

If you extrapolate his 14 healthy g totals it’s 123-1383-7.

TDs are variable and unpredictable, but consider how unlucky he was in 2022.

• WK 3 - 30 yard reception, tackled on 2, Jamaal Williams scored next play
• WK 10 - 13 yard reception, tackled less than a foot from end zone, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 11 - 4 yard reception, tackled inside 1, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 13, 12 yard reception, tackled at 1, Jamaal scored next play

Heard a podcast today and they were like “well he’s steady every week, but he’s not going to finish with 1400+ yards or 10 TDs.” I’m looking at last years game logs and thinking that don’t sound right.

He’s got the right QB, a brilliant OC, & the dude looks at his season goals - along with those 16 WRs drafted before him - in his notebook every day before he heads out to practice. Mans so freaking petty, drives himself with perceived slights like Jordan did.

Go ahead, bet against him.

Was it the Fantasy Footballers? Because they did their top 10 WR and were talking about ASB at 9 and G Wilson at 10. It was funny because as they were talking it out I felt like they realized they might be undervaluing ASB, and then they compared him to past years Keenan Allan and it clicked for me: ASB is a "boring" pick. He's not the hot second year guy, he doesn't have a new star QB or better surrounding weapons. Which, to me, is the exact guy I want. His position in the offense is solid. He's got a good connection with his QB. There's been a few changes to other offensive weapons that SHOULD improve the offense without altering his role (in fact you could argue that they enhance his role). He's insanely driven. And, lastly, their defense is probably going to be pretty bad so they need to put points on the board. These are all things I want in a fantasy WR.

ASB might just be a top 5 WR for me this year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

He is foundational to everything they're trying to do. He and Goff spent several weeks together between OTAs and TC getting in extra work (along with other WRs), Goff texted OC Ben Johnson "Amon-Ra. Huge year."

Had 30 snaps over a 4 week period last year [while dealing with an ankle sprain]. DNP, 10, bye, 20. Team went 0-3 and scored 6 points in those two limited games. Over that span he had 7 targets and went 5-22-0 playing hurt. 139 targets in the other 14 g (10/g.)

If you extrapolate his 14 healthy g totals it’s 123-1383-7.

TDs are variable and unpredictable, but consider how unlucky he was in 2022.

• WK 3 - 30 yard reception, tackled on 2, Jamaal Williams scored next play
• WK 10 - 13 yard reception, tackled less than a foot from end zone, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 11 - 4 yard reception, tackled inside 1, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 13, 12 yard reception, tackled at 1, Jamaal scored next play

Heard a podcast today and they were like “well he’s steady every week, but he’s not going to finish with 1400+ yards or 10 TDs.” I’m looking at last years game logs and thinking that don’t sound right.

He’s got the right QB, a brilliant OC, & the dude looks at his season goals - along with those 16 WRs drafted before him - in his notebook every day before he heads out to practice. Mans so freaking petty, drives himself with perceived slights like Jordan did.

Go ahead, bet against him.

Was it the Fantasy Footballers? Because they did their top 10 WR and were talking about ASB at 9 and G Wilson at 10. It was funny because as they were talking it out I felt like they realized they might be undervaluing ASB, and then they compared him to past years Keenan Allan and it clicked for me: ASB is a "boring" pick. He's not the hot second year guy, he doesn't have a new star QB or better surrounding weapons. Which, to me, is the exact guy I want. His position in the offense is solid. He's got a good connection with his QB. There's been a few changes to other offensive weapons that SHOULD improve the offense without altering his role (in fact you could argue that they enhance his role). He's insanely driven. And, lastly, their defense is probably going to be pretty bad so they need to put points on the board. These are all things I want in a fantasy WR.

ASB might just be a top 5 WR for me this year.

Yeah that's the one. It would be disingenuous for me to say they're more entertainment than reliable when it comes to their rankings - I listen to every show, it has to seep in and influence me - but I honestly don't take them too seriously. But they're fun. Listening on Friday I was like OK that makes sense (Wilson having a higher ceiling), yet I feel like ARSB has a really, really high ceiling this year.

I'll throw out one more argument. SOS is super dumb in early August, every year is it's own deal - we don't actually know who is good and who is bad rn. But we do know regardless of the actual SOS, Jared Goff plays a lot better in domes and in good weather. Of the Lions last 10 games, 9 are either in a dome or a retractable roof stadium.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am pretty sure I have a bunch of posts not too far back making what I think is a solid case for why Amon Ra has as high of a ceiling as any WR. He’s pretty much already demonstrated it for an extended stretch across 2 seasons where he had a Cooper Kupp 2021 like pace. Leading the league in receptions is certainly in play. So is 1500 yards and double digit TDs. That’s an elite ceiling on par with Lamb or AJ Brown or Diggs or Chase or whoever else people think has the better ceiling.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dan Campbell on ARSB this morning

 

[Da Franchise]

I am pretty sure I have a bunch of posts not too far back making what I think is a solid case for why Amon Ra has as high of a ceiling as any WR. He’s pretty much already demonstrated it for an extended stretch across 2 seasons where he had a Cooper Kupp 2021 like pace. Leading the league in receptions is certainly in play. So is 1500 yards and double digit TDs. That’s an elite ceiling on par with Lamb or AJ Brown or Diggs or Chase or whoever else people think has the better ceiling.

The guys I have with a significantly higher ceiling for this year are: JJ, Chase, Tyreek, Kupp, Diggs, Wilson, AJB, Lamb and Waddle. There’s a handful of guys I have him lumped in with but have those firmly ahead on ceiling.

For dynasty he’s still my 7th ranked WR. I just have a larger than most gap between his tier and the tier above which consists of Wilson and Lamb.

Bottom line, the guy is a stud. My small dings are based on overall team dynamics, low ADOT and end zone impact.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am pretty sure I have a bunch of posts not too far back making what I think is a solid case for why Amon Ra has as high of a ceiling as any WR. He’s pretty much already demonstrated it for an extended stretch across 2 seasons where he had a Cooper Kupp 2021 like pace. Leading the league in receptions is certainly in play. So is 1500 yards and double digit TDs. That’s an elite ceiling on par with Lamb or AJ Brown or Diggs or Chase or whoever else people think has the better ceiling.

The guys I have with a significantly higher ceiling for this year are: JJ, Chase, Tyreek, Kupp, Diggs, Wilson, AJB, Lamb and Waddle. There’s a handful of guys I have him lumped in with but have those firmly ahead on ceiling.

For dynasty he’s still my 7th ranked WR. I just have a larger than most gap between his tier and the tier above which consists of Wilson and Lamb.

Bottom line, the guy is a stud. My small dings are based on overall team dynamics, low ADOT and end zone impact.

Why is their ceiling higher?

 

[Ilov80s]

Here’s basically my point from earlier in the thread:

For those 9 straight games Amon Ra put up 74 receptions, 942 yards and 9 TDs. Averaging 24.7 PPR PPG.

I don’t see how that doesn’t indicate his upside is overall fantasy WR1.

 

[Da Franchise]

I am pretty sure I have a bunch of posts not too far back making what I think is a solid case for why Amon Ra has as high of a ceiling as any WR. He’s pretty much already demonstrated it for an extended stretch across 2 seasons where he had a Cooper Kupp 2021 like pace. Leading the league in receptions is certainly in play. So is 1500 yards and double digit TDs. That’s an elite ceiling on par with Lamb or AJ Brown or Diggs or Chase or whoever else people think has the better ceiling.

The guys I have with a significantly higher ceiling for this year are: JJ, Chase, Tyreek, Kupp, Diggs, Wilson, AJB, Lamb and Waddle. There’s a handful of guys I have him lumped in with but have those firmly ahead on ceiling.

For dynasty he’s still my 7th ranked WR. I just have a larger than most gap between his tier and the tier above which consists of Wilson and Lamb.

Bottom line, the guy is a stud. My small dings are based on overall team dynamics, low ADOT and end zone impact.

Why is their ceiling higher?

I mean, I just said. Overall team dynamics, low ADOT, end zone impact.

Slice and dice however you like but he has 11 TDs in two seasons.

 

[Da Franchise]

Here’s basically my point from earlier in the thread:

For those 9 straight games Amon Ra put up 74 receptions, 942 yards and 9 TDs. Averaging 24.7 PPR PPG.

I don’t see how that doesn’t indicate his upside is overall fantasy WR1.

Also, something that really irks me in fantasy in general is this whole idea of WR1, WR2, etc.

Last year there were three guys that score between 323-361 points. JJ, Adam’s, Tyreek. Then there were three guys between 285-293…Diggs, AJB, Lamb. Then there’s 13 guys between 210-256 and another huge grouping right below that.

So in my view, we had 3 WR1s last year. 3 WR2s. 13 WR3s. Like 20 WR4s. This whole idea of 12 WRs and 12 WR2s and so on is not helpful to the game we play. It should be looked at in standard deviations. And to me, ARSB is currently a WR2 in that format and could dip to WR3 territory with a 10% statistical decrease this year, which is what I’m projecting. But I digress.

No shade on your boy at all. He’s a beast.

 

[Da Franchise]

Please @BobbyLayne, enlighten me how I’m wrong.

 

[Chaka]

Please @BobbyLayne, enlighten me how I’m wrong.

I like your premise actually but @Ilov80s comment suggested ARSB could finish as finish as the WR1 not a WR1.

I won't agree or disagree with that but if, end of season there are three true WR1s as you point out, the question in August is how many WRs are capable of being one of those three guys?

I think @BobbyLayne and ilov80s put ARSB on that list and you don't.

 

[Da Franchise]

Please @BobbyLayne, enlighten me how I’m wrong.

I like your premise actually but @Ilov80s comment suggested ARSB could finish as finish as the WR1 not a WR1.

I won't agree or disagree with that but if, end of season there are three true WR1s as you point out, the question in August is how many WRs are capable of being one of those three guys?

I think @BobbyLayne and ilov80s put ARSB on that list and you don't.

Thanks and that’s because it’s a good premise and if folks take a second to think about it, standard deviations are pretty important in a statistical game.


That’s fair, we’re all just giving our opinions. I understand I’m in the lions den here but the response to my nuanced take would be annoying if I cared about it. But I don’t.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Here’s basically my point from earlier in the thread:

For those 9 straight games Amon Ra put up 74 receptions, 942 yards and 9 TDs. Averaging 24.7 PPR PPG.

I don’t see how that doesn’t indicate his upside is overall fantasy WR1.

Also, something that really irks me in fantasy in general is this whole idea of WR1, WR2, etc.

Last year there were three guys that score between 323-361 points. JJ, Adam’s, Tyreek. Then there were three guys between 285-293…Diggs, AJB, Lamb. Then there’s 13 guys between 210-256 and another huge grouping right below that.

So in my view, we had 3 WR1s last year. 3 WR2s. 13 WR3s. Like 20 WR4s. This whole idea of 12 WRs and 12 WR2s and so on is not helpful to the game we play. It should be looked at in standard deviations. And to me, ARSB is currently a WR2 in that format and could dip to WR3 territory with a 10% statistical decrease this year, which is what I’m projecting. But I digress.

No shade on your boy at all. He’s a beast.

ARSB PPG in 14 healthy games was 18.6.

If we give him 90% of that - I don’t know anyone projecting a 10% decline, but for the sake of argument - we’re at 16.74.

Good for WR11 last year (that includes Thomas at 17.0 in 3 g, so really WR10.) We’re still not in traditional WR2 territory yet.

170 targets + positive regression (little better luck WRT TDs) and we’re looking at Top 5 or better. Which he can still come close to even with continued bad luck in TDs.

WR RZ target leaders 2022

1. Jefferson - 28
2. Metcalf - 27
3. Chase - 24
4. Diggs - 23
5. Adams - 22
6. Kirk - 22
7. ARSB - 21

 

[jm192]

I picked up ARSB off waivers 2 years ago and dude won me multiple championships. I decided I wasn't a believer. His success was due to circumstance and he doesn't have the talent to keep that up. Jameson Williams is going to the WR1. Oh and my personal favorite lesson learned: "He's just a slot receiver."

Freaking Oops.

He's him. 106 catches and 1161 in 16 games is a hell of a sophomore season. Goff loves him. I don't think it's a bold take or going out on a limb to suggest he's about to have 120 catches for 1200-1300 yards. He may never give you the crazy TD season, but he's going to be a consistent stud in PPR. Top 10 is the floor.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I picked up ARSB off waivers 2 years ago and dude won me multiple championships. I decided I wasn't a believer. His success was due to circumstance and he doesn't have the talent to keep that up. Jameson Williams is going to the WR1. Oh and my personal favorite lesson learned: "He's just a slot receiver."

Freaking Oops.

He's him. 106 catches and 1161 in 16 games is a hell of a sophomore season. Goff loves him. I don't think it's a bold take or going out on a limb to suggest he's about to have 120 catches for 1200-1300 yards. He may never give you the crazy TD season, but he's going to be a consistent stud in PPR. Top 10 is the floor.

Production wise I could see him having a Keenan Allen (healthy version) type career. Target hog, perfectly fine WR1 in PPR/Half, and TDs are variable.

But they like targeting him in the red zone so I def think he’s capable of a new career high this year in the latter.

 

[jm192]

I picked up ARSB off waivers 2 years ago and dude won me multiple championships. I decided I wasn't a believer. His success was due to circumstance and he doesn't have the talent to keep that up. Jameson Williams is going to the WR1. Oh and my personal favorite lesson learned: "He's just a slot receiver."

Freaking Oops.

He's him. 106 catches and 1161 in 16 games is a hell of a sophomore season. Goff loves him. I don't think it's a bold take or going out on a limb to suggest he's about to have 120 catches for 1200-1300 yards. He may never give you the crazy TD season, but he's going to be a consistent stud in PPR. Top 10 is the floor.

Production wise I could see him having a Keenan Allen (healthy version) type career. Target hog, perfectly fine WR1 in PPR/Half, and TDs are variable.

But they like targeting him in the red zone so I def think he’s capable of a new career high this year in the latter.

I think young Keenan Allen is a perfect comparison.

Agree he can beat his 6 TD's. I think we naturally think of ARSB as a smaller guy. He's 6'0. Waddle is 5'10. Hill is 5'10. And while it's fair to say they'll get behind the defense more often--ARSB is going to shake his man in a small window enough to find open space in the end zone.

I don't envision him as getting like a 12 TD season. But I think he can get around 8. Or if maybe things just click perfectly and he gets around 10 once or twice.

 

[nysfl2]

Guess I’m the only one who expects a little fantasy regression this year. Happen to like Gibbs and LaPorta a lot and think they eat into his target share just a little. Jameson is a lesser concern in my view. Absolutely love the player, he’s a baller no doubt and works as hard as anyone, just think he fades maybe 10-15% this season which is enough for me to be behind adp too much to get him. My only dynasty share was used for acquire Wilson so unfortunately I probably won’t have much Sun God this year if at all.

Wouldn’t Gibbs and LaPorta really be taking targets vacated by Swift and Hockenson (and the hodgepodge of TEs that replaced him) and some of the less receivers?
I kind of made a similar “mistake” of thinking Brown would regress after his rookie season because a lot of his receptions came with Swift, Hockenson and a few other WRs out with injury. I was wrong. I can’t doubt this guy - he’s so good when you watch him.

He is foundational to everything they're trying to do. He and Goff spent several weeks together between OTAs and TC getting in extra work (along with other WRs), Goff texted OC Ben Johnson "Amon-Ra. Huge year."

Had 30 snaps over a 4 week period last year [while dealing with an ankle sprain]. DNP, 10, bye, 20. Team went 0-3 and scored 6 points in those two limited games. Over that span he had 7 targets and went 5-22-0 playing hurt. 139 targets in the other 14 g (10/g.)

If you extrapolate his 14 healthy g totals it’s 123-1383-7.

TDs are variable and unpredictable, but consider how unlucky he was in 2022.

• WK 3 - 30 yard reception, tackled on 2, Jamaal Williams scored next play
• WK 10 - 13 yard reception, tackled less than a foot from end zone, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 11 - 4 yard reception, tackled inside 1, Jamaal scored next play
• WK 13, 12 yard reception, tackled at 1, Jamaal scored next play

Heard a podcast today and they were like “well he’s steady every week, but he’s not going to finish with 1400+ yards or 10 TDs.” I’m looking at last years game logs and thinking that don’t sound right.

He’s got the right QB, a brilliant OC, & the dude looks at his season goals - along with those 16 WRs drafted before him - in his notebook every day before he heads out to practice. Mans so freaking petty, drives himself with perceived slights like Jordan did.

Go ahead, bet against him.

Was it the Fantasy Footballers? Because they did their top 10 WR and were talking about ASB at 9 and G Wilson at 10. It was funny because as they were talking it out I felt like they realized they might be undervaluing ASB, and then they compared him to past years Keenan Allan and it clicked for me: ASB is a "boring" pick. He's not the hot second year guy, he doesn't have a new star QB or better surrounding weapons. Which, to me, is the exact guy I want. His position in the offense is solid. He's got a good connection with his QB. There's been a few changes to other offensive weapons that SHOULD improve the offense without altering his role (in fact you could argue that they enhance his role). He's insanely driven. And, lastly, their defense is probably going to be pretty bad so they need to put points on the board. These are all things I want in a fantasy WR.

ASB might just be a top 5 WR for me this year.

Agree with all of this, except for the defense. It should be significantly better this year - prob closer to league average than the dumpster fire they had the first half of last year.

But, ben Johnson and Campbell aren't going to turtle up into just running the ball with a lead, so it shouldn't affect the offense much.

 

[Da Franchise]

Here’s basically my point from earlier in the thread:

For those 9 straight games Amon Ra put up 74 receptions, 942 yards and 9 TDs. Averaging 24.7 PPR PPG.

I don’t see how that doesn’t indicate his upside is overall fantasy WR1.

Also, something that really irks me in fantasy in general is this whole idea of WR1, WR2, etc.

Last year there were three guys that score between 323-361 points. JJ, Adam’s, Tyreek. Then there were three guys between 285-293…Diggs, AJB, Lamb. Then there’s 13 guys between 210-256 and another huge grouping right below that.

So in my view, we had 3 WR1s last year. 3 WR2s. 13 WR3s. Like 20 WR4s. This whole idea of 12 WRs and 12 WR2s and so on is not helpful to the game we play. It should be looked at in standard deviations. And to me, ARSB is currently a WR2 in that format and could dip to WR3 territory with a 10% statistical decrease this year, which is what I’m projecting. But I digress.

No shade on your boy at all. He’s a beast.

ARSB PPG in 14 healthy games was 18.6.

If we give him 90% of that - I don’t know anyone projecting a 10% decline, but for the sake of argument - we’re at 16.74.

Good for WR11 last year (that includes Thomas at 17.0 in 3 g, so really WR10.) We’re still not in traditional WR2 territory yet.

170 targets + positive regression (little better luck WRT TDs) and we’re looking at Top 5 or better. Which he can still come close to even with continued bad luck in TDs.

WR RZ target leaders 2022

1. Jefferson - 28
2. Metcalf - 27
3. Chase - 24
4. Diggs - 23
5. Adams - 22
6. Kirk - 22
7. ARSB - 21

Yes, that seems to be consensus. I was way ahead of consensus on him the last two seasons and enjoyed the championships. Now I’m a little behind.

Not interested in breaking out tape measures. I will say red zone targets do not equal end zone targets. Carry on.