SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Williams has been listed as the #2 behind Fitz.
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WR Christian Kirk, HOU (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
shadrap
Footballguy
I think your speculation is right on as to why Williams is starting & not Kirk.
That one guy
Footballguy
Anyone watch the Cards first 2 games and have an opinion on this kid? The box score for any Cardinal is less than pretty so far but I know that doesn’t tell the whole story. Is the “heir apparent to Fitz” still the working theory on him?
kutta
Footballguy
It’s really hard to tell with the mess the offense is right now. He’s got good hands and runs good routes. Rosen really likes him, so we really need to see what happens once Rosen takes the reigns.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
I love the setup for Kirk now with Rosen in and FItz banged up with a hamstring injury. All stars seem to be aligning for a possible if not probable breakout. If you can still pick this guy up for free in your league the risk/reward opp is off the charts imo.
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kutta
Footballguy
I totally agree. He's worth an add because Rosen and him have a really good connection.
I was looking at targets earlier, and here's Kirk's targets and receptions through three weeks:
2 targets, 1 reception
5 targets, 4 receptions
8 targets, 7 receptions
He is a pretty decent route runner for a rookie, and has very good hands. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
On pace for 64 recs, but more importantly, trending up. 3 of his 12 recs came from Rosen in the last 4 minutes of the last game, which is clearly a lot more attention than Bradford gave him over the first 11.5 quarters of the year which supports the theory that Rosen will boost Kirk's opps. Sample size is ultra small, but the narrative is being supported right away.
Football Jones
Footballguy
This isn't necessarily just about Kirk, but I'm still amazed at how the WRs were ignored in rookie drafts.
The Big-8 RBs were a thing. The Big-4 WRs were vastly underrated, as well as guys like Miller, Pettis, & Washington.
It might be the single biggest screw-up by the FF community (as a whole) in our hobby's history.
The Big-8 RBs were a thing. The Big-4 WRs were vastly underrated, as well as guys like Miller, Pettis, & Washington.
It might be the single biggest screw-up by the FF community (as a whole) in our hobby's history.
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simey
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Well there’s like 50 guys who fit the FF WR3 moniker rn.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What are you basing this on?
Here is rookie ADP from MFL after June 1st 660 drafts.
1. Barkley, Saquon NYG RB 1.07 1 7 643
2. Penny, Rashaad SEA RB 5.46 1 103 664
3. Guice, Derrius WAS RB* 5.55 1 145 645
4. Michel, Sony NEP RB 6.30 1 114 656
5. Jones, Ronald TBB RB 7.85 1 210 654
6. Freeman, Royce DEN RB 8.23 1 58 651
7. Chubb, Nick CLE RB 8.83 2 153 648
8. Johnson, Kerryon DET RB 9.67 2 86 657
9. Moore, D.J. CAR WR 10.27 1 241 660
10. Ridley, Calvin ATL WR 10.89 2 159 647
11. Kirk, Christian ARI WR 15.89 3 198 649
12. Sutton, Courtland DEN WR 16.03 2 275 647
13. Smith, Roquan CHI LB 16.21 2 146 462
14. Mayfield, Baker CLE QB 18.09 1 299 653
15. Gallup, Michael DAL WR 18.35 2 183 663
16. Edmunds, Tremaine BUF LB 18.68 3 175 460
17. Miller, Anthony CHI WR 19.55 2 310 661
18. Gesicki, Mike MIA TE 19.93 2 243 656
19. Rosen, Josh ARI QB 21.21 1 311 643
20. Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 21.22 2 288 648
21. Darnold, Sam NYJ QB 23.71 1 317 644
22. Washington, James PIT WR 23.99 2 289 649
23. Hines, Nyheim IND RB 25.97 5 243 660
24. Hurst, Hayden BAL TE 26.92 3 261 659
25. Pettis, Dante SFO WR 28.66 10 350 650
26. James, Derwin LAC S 28.72 2 213 448
27. Ballage, Kalen MIA RB 29.94 6 222 641
28. Goedert, Dallas PHI TE 30.19 5 206 655
29. Evans, Rashaan TEN LB 30.20 2 361 440
30. Allen, Josh BUF QB 30.67 2 331 638
31. Chubb, Bradley DEN LB 31.00 2 315 458
32. Vander Esch, Leighton DAL LB 32.85 8 284 432
33. Chark, D.J. JAC WR 33.85 5 377 651
34. Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR 34.71 2 379 656
35. Davenport, Marcus NOS DE 36.01 6 339 445
36. Wilkins, Jordan IND RB 38.18 9 286 644
Yes. This is partially influenced by recent history. Last season having multiple RB enter the top 12 at the position, as well as 1st round WR not doing much in recent drafts either.
Getting early action on a rookie player makes them a better trade asset than a guy who isn't doing anything.
With the benefit of hindsight, where do you think the WR should have been drafted? After 3 weeks of regular season play?
I think you are overstating the case in a lot of instances here, but curious as to what you think was screwed up?
@Biabreakable sorry I couldn't quote the relevant part of your text for some reason. You said: "Getting early action on a rookie player makes them a better trade asset than a guy who isn't doing anything". This true but the error I think for a lot of drafters was assuming (presumably based on 2017) that all of these rookies would get not only early action, but early action that would make them a productive asset with more value than the WRs.
Now hindsight is great but the RBs haven't provided that at all. I wouldn't count Guice, but the action so far that Chubb, Michel, Penny and Freeman have got has arguably been underwhelming. Jones has had no action at all. Kerryon has been OK I guess.
Miller, Washington, Moore and Pettis haven't done a whole lot either to be fair. Sutton, Ridley and Kirk have shown a bit more. We've probably just been spoilt by the instant production of previous recent classes, but it seemed (to me anyway) that the obsession with rookie RBs in drafts was a bit too reactionary and ignored the genuine high-end talent of a few of the WRs. That has played out to some extent.
Now hindsight is great but the RBs haven't provided that at all. I wouldn't count Guice, but the action so far that Chubb, Michel, Penny and Freeman have got has arguably been underwhelming. Jones has had no action at all. Kerryon has been OK I guess.
Miller, Washington, Moore and Pettis haven't done a whole lot either to be fair. Sutton, Ridley and Kirk have shown a bit more. We've probably just been spoilt by the instant production of previous recent classes, but it seemed (to me anyway) that the obsession with rookie RBs in drafts was a bit too reactionary and ignored the genuine high-end talent of a few of the WRs. That has played out to some extent.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I think it's pretty evident the RBs were overdrafted & by quite a large margin. I saw a lot of leagues go 1-8 RBs which by virtually everyone's account at this point was a mistake in dynasty leagues.
Of course it's hindsight (duh), but thats what we have to go on right now. There's a lot to be played out yet, but I'm very confident we'll look back at this class & realize the FF community (as a whole) made a rather big mistake by overvaluing the RBs & undervaluing the WRs.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Very few people were on the WR train. I saw a lot of "the RBs are the value & I see no WR who deserves to be drafted high". Comments along those lines.
With the data we have right now, the way it's looking, WRs should've been drafted much higher. You typically could get Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, & Moore in the late 1st/early 2nd & guys like Miller, Pettis & Washington in the late 2nd/early 3rd
Even the likes of Jackson & Gesicki went higher than many of the top WRs in some leagues. Not trashing any particular player because this was a great class, but it's crystal clear the WRs were WAY underdrafted in the typical dynasty league.
With the data we have right now, the way it's looking, WRs should've been drafted much higher. You typically could get Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, & Moore in the late 1st/early 2nd & guys like Miller, Pettis & Washington in the late 2nd/early 3rd
Even the likes of Jackson & Gesicki went higher than many of the top WRs in some leagues. Not trashing any particular player because this was a great class, but it's crystal clear the WRs were WAY underdrafted in the typical dynasty league.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah Rush I am not saying it is always the right thing to do, focus on rookie players who will actually produce something right away. Some times that is being short sighted. However it does influence how I will rank rookie players to a degree, although I do give rookies 3 years to prove themselves, I usually have a pretty good idea of what they can do by year two of their careers.
Eveery once in awhile a player emerges in their 4th or 5th season in the league. For example maybe Phillip Dorsett will actually be worth something now. But most of the time, and especially with RB they are going to show who they are by their 3rd season. Jay Ajayi for example was injured and mostly worthless his rookie year, but broke out in his second season (which if Foster had stayed healthy, may have never happened).
So while I can agree with you that some times this short term thinking is an error, most of the time it isn't. For RB and WR you are usually going to see them shine in their first two seasons if they are going to.
Yeah the RB have been all the rage and this is an overreaction to what happened in 2017 with several rookie RB all showing their worth. Some folks thought this RB draft class was as good as 2017. I never really agreed with that, but there are some good players there from 2018. Most of them are not looking like they will break out this year though, at least at this time. That could change quickly however.
Part of the RB being overvalued from the 2018 draft class is related to how poorly WR have done in recent draft classes as well though. So if you are looking at a long wait for the WR to become useful, I do understand wanting to take a shot at RB instead.
It has only been 3 weeks. My outlook on these players when I rank them is 3 seasons. In my view it would be premature to change anything about how I ranked them.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I do not have the same perspective about this as you do. I think it is too early to judge how the players were ranked prior to the regular season.
Lets at least get 8 weeks played before calling what has happened so far evident.
There is a short sightedness in looking for early production on any rookie player, but it is just as short sighted to make judgements about those evaluations after only 3 weeks of regular season play.
If you feel as strongly about this as your statements sound however, how do you think the rookie should be ranked right now?
With the benefit of 3 weeks of regular season play to help guide you.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I know what you're getting at, but the heart of my statement is if rookie drafts were held today, it would look vastly different. The biggest difference would be in the RBs & WRs. That's really all I'm saying.
To expand, I believe this trend will continue. The RBs were way overdrafted & the WRs way underdrafted, IMO.
My board doesn't look much different than it did pre-rookie draft. I've always had the WRs much higher than was typical starting at 2 & sprinkled in throughout the late-middle 1st. Now, that doesn't mean I would've taken a WR at 2. I didn't have that high of a pick, but I likely would've traded down to take a WR & gained compensation if had a pick in the top-5 & seeing how highly the RBs were ranked.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I see. Well that would be an interesting discussion to me.
How would people rank the rookies right now?
Maybe this should be a new topic. To stay on this one where would people rank Christian Kirk right now?
The last rookie rankings I did was early June post draft. I had Kirk at 14 overall.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I hesitate to post my rankings because I'm in trade negotiations involving some of them. I've had other people ask & I may do that at some point, but likely not until the offseason. I typically don't post rankings for selfish reasons (the trade thing), but I'm reconsidering it.
There's also the issue of not updating my board. There no doubt would be changes to my original rankings, but I haven't done that yet. I typically don't officially do anything with my board until the offseason & I'll simply adjust "on the fly" with trades & such.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do pretty much the same.
I started a new topic and I remembered miqes list that samples many rankings pre combine, post combine pre NFL draft, and post NFL draft as I would like to discuss it some more.
kutta
Footballguy
I don't typically do rookie rankings per se. I did have Barkley #1 of course. After that, I had Penny as my top RB, and Kirk as my top WR.
I drafted Penny at 1.04, and Kirk at 2.01. I've been a Kirk fan early on, and would definitly take him ahead of Penny now. So I guess I'd have Kirk in the top 6 or 7, and Penny below that.
I don't have the energy to rerank all the rookies, but there's definitely WR's moving up.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I think if I was desperate for WR help right now, I would take the gamble.
I'm high on Kirk for keeper/dynasty purposes, but what the AZ offense will be is totally up in the air. As others have noted, he has the opportunity for volume going for him, an OC that doesn't seem committed yet to giving the ball to DJ 30 times a game, and a chance for an injection of some confidence or positive change with Rosen. But, there's a lot of moving parts there - Fitz stays banged up, the Cards stay stupid with DJ, Rosen doesn't suck.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Snagged this guy as my WR3 this week, in 2 leagues where I am in a massive point hole thanks to running up against a team that started half the Rams buzzsaw, and Cousins in another.
I see this as an excellent chance to gamble on someone as a flyer for a rest -of-season difference maker.(like above, I'm down on Marquise Goodwin, and similar type WR3s)
I recall a similar narrative type story some years ago when Brandon Marshall was "roommates" with his current QB (in the offseason) in a season where he blew up. Rosen and Kirk spent a lot of time together in the preseason, and were roommates in the past.
This is the definition of a speculative gamble, but looking at what has transpired, (and last week) it certainly seems like Rosen might be looking for Kirk often. Its not like ARI is going to be a defensive juggernaut and they should be playing from behind consistently the rest of the year.
Punched him in as a WR3 in 2 leagues. Not terribly excited yet, but I see some upside over many of the WR3 types. One long TD wouldn't shock me in the slightest @ home vs. Seattle. Tomorrow, I'll be watching.
TZM
I see this as an excellent chance to gamble on someone as a flyer for a rest -of-season difference maker.(like above, I'm down on Marquise Goodwin, and similar type WR3s)
I recall a similar narrative type story some years ago when Brandon Marshall was "roommates" with his current QB (in the offseason) in a season where he blew up. Rosen and Kirk spent a lot of time together in the preseason, and were roommates in the past.
This is the definition of a speculative gamble, but looking at what has transpired, (and last week) it certainly seems like Rosen might be looking for Kirk often. Its not like ARI is going to be a defensive juggernaut and they should be playing from behind consistently the rest of the year.
Punched him in as a WR3 in 2 leagues. Not terribly excited yet, but I see some upside over many of the WR3 types. One long TD wouldn't shock me in the slightest @ home vs. Seattle. Tomorrow, I'll be watching.
TZM
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Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I just picked him up and put him in over Powell in a super flex league where I have Newton off and only Luck at QB. Figure I'm at a disadvantage.
Sasgaard
Footballguy
Kirk somehow is still in waivers in my league. I'm thinking about dropping Chris Henry for him. It's a PPR redraft. I have the feeling that the minute I'm dropping Henry, he will go off but Kirk looks pretty good and seems to have a good connection with Rosen. Not sure on that one.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Thinking of dropping Coutee for Kirk. I figure kirk is basically the #1 wr vs #3 on Houston
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I am on board with this: Kirk = #1 wr for Arizona.
Getting a #1 at the end of the bench is something hard to pass up. While Coutee is very interesting, I think that Kirk's floor is higher than Coutee's (especially given his issue with his hammys and the current state of the Houston offense). And I think Kirk's ceiling is at least equal to Coutee's.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Prob starting him over Corey Davis
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Been thinking about it, and I find this argument compelling, so I just pulled the trigger.Dr. Dan said:
Now need to decide whether to start Kirk or Corey Davis in my flex spot.
Dizzy
Footballguy
The evaluation of ARZ #1 WR vs HOU #3 WR (maybe #2 WR) needs to take the QB play into account though.
Would you rather have 5% of a million dollars or 50% of a thousand?
themeistersinger
Footballguy
If Fuller is out, and Coutee is #2, then I'd prefer Coutee. I also don't think Watson is a solid gold QB. The #3 WR in Green Bay or LA Rams isn't the same as the #3 receiver in Houston.
And while Rosen might toss picks, those don't count against the WR stats, although of course they do end drives and take the team off the field.
Biggest risk tonight is probably David Johnson blasting through the Broncos weak rush defense and Rosen doesn't have to throw.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Love how he is trending up as the new #1 in ARZ and enjoying his somewhat slow, steady, methodical, turtle like breakout. The multi-TD 100+ yards explosion game hasn't occurred on my bench (yet), however, this could be the night Kirk torches Roby on a national stage and becomes a household name (well not really a household name, but take notice). I could see him put up 1-2 TDs and 100+ yards easy tonight if Roby holds to form. Kirk has been good on his catch rate (25 of 31, 80%) and if his talent ever got exploited with one of those monster 10-15 target type games look out.
tkrull
Footballguy
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Agreed. I'm not starting him. He's my WR6 behind Green, Cooks, Boyd, Edelman and Baldwin. Not saying to start him (unless you have to fill a WR3ish type spot), just saying he could hit tonight.
