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WR DeAndre Hopkins, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I realize you play non-ppr but surely you realize that 95% of the people you're talking to don't. He is WR3 right now in PPR. In a "down" year.
Even in non-PPR he's WR6. I'm not really sure what you want. He was WR4 last year. He's one of only two WR/RB's to finish in the top 6 in each of the last two years (CMC being the other).
Targets are one of the most highly correlated variables to predicting WR success in the following year. It's hilarious anyone is thinking of dropping the guy with the second most targets in dynasty.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Major
Footballguy
reminds me of this memorable Chris Farley bit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS8CP1A6OCQCowboysfan8 said:
sure you did
Gandalf
Footballguy
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Finished 9th in ppg for my standard league. Not an ideal season but a WR1 with a comparable ppg average to Chark, Diggs, Adams, Parker, Cupp. He didn’t have a great year but wasn’t a too bad either. A must start every week in a down year is tough to bat your eyes at for dynasty.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but his overall body of work is incredible. All great players have down years. The beauty of the truly elite is that their non-injured down years are still must stars every week.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Who said top 3? Just saying there’s a lot of variance year to year at WR but Hopkins is one of the few WRs who is annually a must start.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
That’s fair- it does seem like he wasn’t quite the focus we’ve seen before. Or maybe they correct that after seeing their issues this year. I am sure there will be later drafted WRs who score similar but the predictability is what makes the top players so valuable. How many WRs would you bet on being better than Nuk next year?
Gandalf
Footballguy
I didn’t say finish in the top 3. I said lock to be drafted in the top 3. Or that’s what I meant at least. Whether you agree or not he’s consensus elite WR. You are upset about a down year when he finished 10th in your league. Think about that for a second.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am curious if there is any WR is the entire league you would keep. There are 0 WRs that have finished in the top 5 in non-PPR PPG each of the last two years. The closest is Michael Thomas but he was "only" WR8 last year, half a point ahead of guys like Robert Woods and Tyler Lockett who were drafted 10 rounds later, which you've already made clear is something you value very little.
Mike Evans was WR13 last year and generally bounces between top 3 and outside the top 15 from year to year. Davante Adams was WR13 this year. OBJ and JuJu were awful. Keenan was WR14.
Most of these guys are going to have guys drafted much later than them go step for step with them a year here or a year there. Like someone mentioned above if you could predict who the late round guys that will finish top 10 are as predictably as Hopkins finishes in the top 10 then sure, take those guys at better value instead. But you can't. That is true for pretty much anyone. LT2 was the consensus 1.01 dynasty startup pick for like 6 years before he ever finished as the top scoring running back. Every year there was someone drafted later than him that scored more than him. But you never knew who that was going to be, which is why LT2 was always the one getting taken 1st.
Even the greatest players have up and down years. I remember these same conversations around Julio Jones a few years back after one of his "down" years where he was merely a mid-WR1 overall and back-end WR1 in PPG. It's just the nature of the game. MT will very likely have another ~WR10 finish within the next few years as well.
Mike Evans was WR13 last year and generally bounces between top 3 and outside the top 15 from year to year. Davante Adams was WR13 this year. OBJ and JuJu were awful. Keenan was WR14.
Most of these guys are going to have guys drafted much later than them go step for step with them a year here or a year there. Like someone mentioned above if you could predict who the late round guys that will finish top 10 are as predictably as Hopkins finishes in the top 10 then sure, take those guys at better value instead. But you can't. That is true for pretty much anyone. LT2 was the consensus 1.01 dynasty startup pick for like 6 years before he ever finished as the top scoring running back. Every year there was someone drafted later than him that scored more than him. But you never knew who that was going to be, which is why LT2 was always the one getting taken 1st.
Even the greatest players have up and down years. I remember these same conversations around Julio Jones a few years back after one of his "down" years where he was merely a mid-WR1 overall and back-end WR1 in PPG. It's just the nature of the game. MT will very likely have another ~WR10 finish within the next few years as well.
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
But some guy said he won his league by forty points, even with Hopkins being a disappointment, so your argument is invalid. Forty points!
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I can only imagine this is the guy I've blocked. 40 points! I hope he has a financial advisor on call so he doesn't spend it all in one place!!!
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not a fan boy, The question becomes, who do you expect to be available in the first that you prefer to Hopkins? It's a pretty simple equation for that sort of keeper league.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I wouldn't keep Hopkins with a first anymore. Watson is kryptonite lite to him. A 2nd round? Sure.
rockaction
Footballguy
I wouldn't say that, I'd say that the constant absence of Fuller hurts more than we think and that Deshaun does indeed have trouble -- per PFF -- with the intermediate ball.
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oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Agree. Also their O-Line is terrible too. Still, they could force feed him like we've become accustomed to over the years but that stopped in large part this season.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was also going to say the distribution is different because they have Stills, Johnson, and Hyde, who are all very credible options as opposed to last year's Coutee and Blue.
Gandalf
Footballguy
But any of the top WR options could finish WR10 in any single year. I don’t think anyone can reliably predict that. It’s too small a sample size over 16 game season.
Also I’m not a fan boy - I own zero Hopkins in any of my leagues. I don’t think nor did I say you were mentally ill. Not sure if others implied that. I think you are frustrated and have unrealistic expectations on what players in fantasy football can do.
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When you both speak in generalities and are referring to specific aspects of your league and roster, it's impossible for anyone to provide an informed opinion.Walking Boot said:
Who are you thinking that you will keep ahead of Hopkins next season, give us a list of names. Keeper league rules are all over the board. If you can keep Chris Godwin as a 5th round pick vs Hopkins as a 1st, that's entirely understandable and a great strategic play.
I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt because of your specific situation. But I completely disagree with this opinion, even in a standard league.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think he's offering advice, he's judging you until you produce something whereby you logically wouldn't keep DeAndre, who was top ten this year. That's sort of what everybody's doing here; whether you wanted or want to step into that minefield is over. They're trying to dance around you like a Maypole because the workers are unhappy with the weekend you were offering, so to speak. Don't roust the rabble unless you mean it, dang it.
I have to admit I'm skeptical even though, like tangfoot (thank God for that screen name), I can totally imagine a position from which you'd drop him. He's not the number one guy in football.
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Catbird
Footballguy
No one knows your rules, Boot (nor do we have near enough info to guess whether you are mentally ill). If you have to give up your next two first round picks to protect a guy, I probably wouldn't protect anyone - maybe CMC. If your league requires that you give up your upcoming first to keep a top player (which I think we assume is close to what happens in you league because that's the general rule in keeper leagues we've been in or seen) who you should keep is further colored by whether your first pick is early or late and what you think will be available when you pick.
What I hear others saying, and I agree, is that Hopkins is a top WR. He is probably as likely to finish top 10 next year as all but maybe 2 or 3 WRs (or more, depending on your evaluation). That said, he is probably about an even bet to finish top 10 (with injuries - particularly if his, DeShauns' and/or Fuller's), how intensely defenses focus on him, whether his OL improves and all the other factors). As you note, there will probably be 4 or 5 guys we never considered seriously to be top 10 finishing there next year, as every year. Some will never be top 10 again. Your certainty of top 10 results in picking one of those is commensurate with their cheaper cost.
I appreciate your points about DeAndre's years of use and how the offense used him less at year's end. I think this is primarily the Fuller situation and how much defense capital this let opponents spend on stopping Hopkins with Hyde and Duke being lesser threats. Virtually anyone can be stopped. Lamar is hard to stop, for example, because you still have to stop the running game, the passing game and then also Lamar's running. More things to cover mean thinning out the defense capital you have to stop any particular threat. When the Texans can produce next to nothing from non-Nuk WRs and less than average from their running game, he can be blanketed. We know he can still produce at a high level with those forces. It would be quite a stretch to assume any of the unexpected and first time top 10 finishers could still put up those kind of numbers if the opposing defenses focused first on stopping them. Those high finishes make those guys likely to get more coverage and produce less as a result,. We already know teams are doing everything they can to stop Nuk first, and he is still producing top 10 numbers. No clear reason he shouldn't again. Maybe more if either the run game or cast of WRs (or even just Fuller) force the defense to cover more ground).
You know best for you and your league. I think most of us just see Hopkins as a stellar talent and know that studs are hard to find and shouldn't be given up lightly.
What I hear others saying, and I agree, is that Hopkins is a top WR. He is probably as likely to finish top 10 next year as all but maybe 2 or 3 WRs (or more, depending on your evaluation). That said, he is probably about an even bet to finish top 10 (with injuries - particularly if his, DeShauns' and/or Fuller's), how intensely defenses focus on him, whether his OL improves and all the other factors). As you note, there will probably be 4 or 5 guys we never considered seriously to be top 10 finishing there next year, as every year. Some will never be top 10 again. Your certainty of top 10 results in picking one of those is commensurate with their cheaper cost.
I appreciate your points about DeAndre's years of use and how the offense used him less at year's end. I think this is primarily the Fuller situation and how much defense capital this let opponents spend on stopping Hopkins with Hyde and Duke being lesser threats. Virtually anyone can be stopped. Lamar is hard to stop, for example, because you still have to stop the running game, the passing game and then also Lamar's running. More things to cover mean thinning out the defense capital you have to stop any particular threat. When the Texans can produce next to nothing from non-Nuk WRs and less than average from their running game, he can be blanketed. We know he can still produce at a high level with those forces. It would be quite a stretch to assume any of the unexpected and first time top 10 finishers could still put up those kind of numbers if the opposing defenses focused first on stopping them. Those high finishes make those guys likely to get more coverage and produce less as a result,. We already know teams are doing everything they can to stop Nuk first, and he is still producing top 10 numbers. No clear reason he shouldn't again. Maybe more if either the run game or cast of WRs (or even just Fuller) force the defense to cover more ground).
You know best for you and your league. I think most of us just see Hopkins as a stellar talent and know that studs are hard to find and shouldn't be given up lightly.
How many teams that drafted OBJ, JuJu, Conner, etc with their first pick made the playoffs? There were so many early round busts this year.
sure you did
If you seriously didn't compete with the value of Hopkins in the first round your frustration must really be due to the rest of your draft/acquisitions being really poor.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I drafted Conner in the first round, so I did.
I also drafted Cook five picks or so later, so...
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
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So Peter King is saying Hopkins might get traded. At deadline last year Mike Lombardi said a major WR was being made available via trade that would shock people. This morning he backed up Peter's report and said that WR was Hopkins. I can't make sense of it but think their is some real smoke here.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Draft capital and the ability to afford Watson's upcoming contact.
And because BO'B ain't too bright.
Beyond dumb move if true, they have zero other reliable pass catchers on the team and playoff aspirations. Hopkins contract is reasonable and the Texans aren't hurting for cap space even with Watson and Tunesil's contracts looming. They can easily trim cap space in other places too.
It'd be especially bad, because Hopkins is much more important than Tunsil. Then again, Bill O'Brien is a pretty awful GM. He has made almost zero good moves. He paid more than double what Tunsil was worth, then gave away Clowney, traded a 3 for a 3rd down RB, now we have these Hopkins rumors, and rumors of trading for David Johnson. Also made a huge reach in round 1 of last year's draft too.
He's been drunk for a year, how has nobody taken his keys away?
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
