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WR DeAndre Hopkins, BAL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Assignment: name five quarterbacks who wouldn't be able to hit DHop
I don't think Carolina or Houston would be bad landing spots. Clear cut #1, both QBs are accurate passers, Hopkins would be a WR2 in either spot.
If I were a Hopkins owner, my list of best landing spots would be:
1. Kansas City
2. Houston
3. Carolina
4. New England
5. NY Giants
I do agree Chicago and Atlanta would be worse fits fantasy wise, though the premise of Hopkins making either team a playoff team isn't crazy.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
have you looked at studies of the effect starting QBs has on established stars production?
Please elaborate
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
late round QB - fantasy impact of rookie QBs on their teammates (2021)
article - The Fantasy Football Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks
The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast: Revisiting the Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks
there are also other studies out there if you Google it; not germane here but they tend to suppress RB production (tendency to take off rather than check down) and contrary to popular conventional wisdom, they lean on TEs less than seasoned QBs
not a complete avoid data point but something to take into consideration type thing
It seems to depend on whether the rookie QB has any success, rather than just them being a rookie. If Young/Stroud are decent, value will be there for somebody else on those offenses. Pretty much any rookie QB in the last 25 years who has had any recent success, has had either no effect, or positive effect to the players around him. On average rookie QBs don't tend to be great, but I don't see this as a useful data point, unless the assumption is Young/Stroud are gonna suck.
Just some examples:
1998: Peyton Manning-Marshall Faulk has a then career year, and Marvin Harrison takes a step forward.
2004: Ben Roethlisberger-Jerome Bettis has his best season in 3 years.
2008: Matt Ryan-Michael Turner has a career year, and Roddy White has his best season to date
2008: Joe Flacco-Derrick Mason maintains his WR2 value
2010: Sam Bradford-Steven Jackson continues to be a solid RB1, who is held back from elite status by lack of TDs.
2011: Cam Newton-Steve Smith has his best season in 3 years, and one of the best years of his career.
2011: Andy Dalton-Cedric Benson continues being a solid RB2
2012: Andrew Luck-Reggie Wayne has his last big season, and almost the exact same production he had in his final year with Manning.
2012: Robert Griffin-Alfred Morris has 1600+ rushing yards
2012: Russell Wilson-Marshawn Lynch has a career year
2013: Mike Glennon-Vincent Jackson follows his career year with his 2nd best season at roughly the same level.
2015: Jameis Winston-Doug Martin has the 2nd best season of his career
2015: Marcus Mariota-Delanie Walker has his career season
2016: Carson Wentz-Zach Ertz has his best season to date
2016: Dak Prescott-Ezekiel Elliott has the best season he ever ends up having
2017: Deshaun Watson-small sample size, but DeAndre Hopkins had his best PPG season he ever had.
2019: Kyler Murray-Kenyon Drake has top-5 numbers once traded to Arizona
2020: Joe Burrow-Joe Mixon was having a normal season until his own injury.
2020: Justin Herbert-Keenan Allen was as good as ever, with a career high in TDs.
2021: Mac Jones-Damien Harris has 15 TDs, 75% of his career total to date
So, in a way, there is an 80% chance that some team with a rookie starter, will have a good player who is at least as good as normal or better than they have been. I'd be lying if I said I knew who it would be, but I think its enough for me to not downgrade offenses just because of a rookie QB, and Hopkins in Carolina or Houston would be the best candidates to maintain or increase value, other than maybe Jonathan Taylor.
Riffraff
Footballguy
So he's 6 seasons of 1k yards and 4 seasons of non-1k yards. 40% of his time he could have retired by his own metric. Odd quote to make.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
1,000 / 17 games = 58.8 ypg. He averaged 78.2 in HOU and 77.0 in ARI. He hasn’t really shown signs of dropping way off production wise so far.
Riffraff
Footballguy
So, you are saying he should have said he'd average 59 yards a game then. Not what he actually said.
You may want to send him a tweet or thread or whatnot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I still think that he’s waiting on KC to free to the money to go there and if they don’t buy mid August he’ll sign with NE as Bill loves him.
I think they both did during each visit.
I think a week or two after the Pats visit they said it again
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ari Meirov
@MySportsUpdate
·
9m
BREAKING: DeAndre Hopkins is expected to sign with the Tennessee Titans, as
@DougKyed
first reported.A big-time weapon coming to Nashville.
@MySportsUpdate
·
9m
BREAKING: DeAndre Hopkins is expected to sign with the Tennessee Titans, as
@DougKyed
first reported.A big-time weapon coming to Nashville.
At the very least this makes me feel a lot better about drafting Henry.
ETA: Probably puts a slight damper on Okonkwo's sleeper status and makes Burks more of a deep threat than a volume play.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Is this just based on opposing defences not just putting eight in the box all the time, or something else?
That, and clearly the Titans aren't thinking they are a rebuilding team. So, less worry about say, Tannehill getting benched to see what they have in Levis, or Henry maybe getting dealt (which probably wouldn't have been bad per se) or the offense sputtering because Burks can fill the #1 role.
I'd consider Hopkins a low-end WR2 right now.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah hurts him the most. Hard to see him having much value with how small the pie of pass attempts are in Tennessee.
I don't recall anyone being excited about Woods, especially coming off an ACL.
Remembering being excited about Julio and Woods.
I do wonder what Julio's run would have looked like if he had been able to stay on the field and was the #1.
The history of once elite veteran WRs in Tennessee isn't great historically. Julio, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, even a guy like Eric Moulds. Having said that, other than Julio, Hopkins is coming off looking a lot better than any of those guys did the year before getting to Tennessee.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Excited might be a strong word choice but I was optimistic that he could bounce back.I don't recall anyone being excited about Woods, especially coming off an ACL.
Remembering being excited about Julio and Woods.
I do wonder what Julio's run would have looked like if he had been able to stay on the field and was the #1.
The history of once elite veteran WRs in Tennessee isn't great historically. Julio, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, even a guy like Eric Moulds. Having said that, other than Julio, Hopkins is coming off looking a lot better than any of those guys did the year before getting to Tennessee.
I was wrong.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
This is awesome. Now JuJu is well-positioned for that breakout season!
RIP Rotoworld
Footballguy
WR25ish is fine for me I guess. I would argue though that this makes them more likely to give Tannehill a leash, not less. He'll almost certainly get all the first team reps to start, but if Levis looks as though he's ahead of the curve early on, and Tannehill struggles, well, they didn't buy 2 years of Hopkins to hedge through a retool.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Odd as this might sound, this probably makes me more hopeful for the guys on the NE roster, NE could easily have bettered the Titans offer for Hopkins but chose not to. They have the most available cap space in 2024 and 2025 (2025 is over $200M).This is awesome. Now JuJu is well-positioned for that breakout season!
The glass is half full approach would focus on Parker having done really well with his targets last year (there just weren't enough of them). Thornton was generating a lot of media buzz before his soft tissue injury . . . so maybe he developed a lot since last year. Maybe JuJu returns to the productive years he had in PIT. I have seen a couple of people (besides me) suggest that Bourne with BOB could eclipse 1,000 receiving yards (he was their most explosive player on offense in 2021). And maybe Douglas or Boutte shows something. Add in Gesicki (who is more WR than TE these days), any maybe the collective group will be passable.
The glass is half empty approach would be they are short on talent and proven experience, they desperately needed a WR1, and they were too cheap to shell out money for Hopkins. If part of the goal for 2023 is to evaluate Mac Jones to see what his ceiling is and determine what his potential could be, adding Hopkins would have helped accomplish that. Jones really needed a top tier weapon, and NE just hasn't supplied him with that.
It's possible to have a blended opinion with components of both of those. It's clear the staff thinks they have enough receiving talent that they didn't need to extend themselves to snag Hopkins. That may prove to be a very misguided assessment, but that's where they're at at the moment. They aren't going anywhere unless Jones takes the next step and shows improvement. (They may not be going anywhere even if he does.) It will also be worth monitoring how much improvement BOB can get out of the offense compared to twiddle dee and twiddle dum from last year.
Levis struggled a lot in shorts with the starting secondary missing most of spring.
It's not expected to get better in pads and against the first string. That's why a developmental year is widely forecast for him
Fowler saying the Pats never came close to the Titans offer (and that no other teams offered) really lends towards the Titans overpaying. That's what they do well.
I don't like knowing Belichick didn't want to offer that much after their failure with Julio. Did the ol ball coach see things Albert Breer reported from some around the league?
I don't like knowing Belichick didn't want to offer that much after their failure with Julio. Did the ol ball coach see things Albert Breer reported from some around the league?
-OZ-
Footballguy
RT is underrated, he absolutely can lead a team as far as they can reasonably go. He won’t take over like the top guys but he’s fully in the “Good enough” tier.
massraider
Footballguy
Maybe so, that's a good point.
I figure Willis' legs will produce a big run or two and stir up quite a discussion this summer
Tannehill has arguably been the most underrated QB of the last decade. He's never been less than an average starter and has had stretches of elite play.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
curious about the oline. Tannehill struggled last year, I didn’t track it closely but I’m pretty sure fans were frustrated. Have to believe that injury played a part for Tannehill specifically.
With Hop, Burks, Phillips and NWI, okonkwo and hurst(?), Henry and Spears, seems like a competitive group.
Excited for Tennessee. Would have been much more excited for his ff output in KC but this is good news for fans imo.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Comparable (but not quite) to Stafford while in Detroit. Not the arm but the overall perception vs actual quality imo.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe. I wonder if Okonkwo ends up being the slot guy, and the Titans show more 2-TE looks.
I don't think Phillips issue was ever defensive attention, its getting and staying on the field.
ETA: I don't really think anybody wins here except Tannehill and Henry.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Vrabel, the defense, and most importantly TITANS FANS!
need2know
Footballguy
Idk. Hes average at best. But this helps him obviously
