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WR Deebo Samuel, WAS (1 Viewer)

"While Samuel is still getting plenty of opportunities to catch and run near the line of scrimmage, his air yards per target is up to 7.9 from 2.36 in 2020. He's been targeted 15 or more yards down field 10 times after he'd had 20 such targets in his first 22 NFL games."

That is pretty astounding. Not selling the one share I own, and it sounds like maybe inquiring in my other leagues is a good idea. 

@VikingFrog Mind sharing the details of those trades for a price check? TY!


Sure:

They were multiplayer deals in redraft. So sometimes the value of one player can be hard to establish. But here they are. I was involved in neither.

League 1:

Player A sends Gesecki and Terry Mclaurin

Player B sends Deebo and Claypool

League 2:

Player A send Deebo, Patterson, Kittle

Plauer B sends Tyreek Hill and Pitts

 
Sure:

They were multiplayer deals in redraft. So sometimes the value of one player can be hard to establish. But here they are. I was involved in neither.

League 1:

Player A sends Gesecki and Terry Mclaurin

Player B sends Deebo and Claypool

League 2:

Player A send Deebo, Patterson, Kittle

Plauer B sends Tyreek Hill and Pitts


Man- that second trade just seems like a steal. Tyreek is generally untouchable to me. Deebo still has the injury history baked into his price.

That said, man is he impressive this year. He's certainly in the high-end WR2 conversation ROS, whatever that is worth. 

 
Man- that second trade just seems like a steal. Tyreek is generally untouchable to me. Deebo still has the injury history baked into his price.

That said, man is he impressive this year. He's certainly in the high-end WR2 conversation ROS, whatever that is worth. 
I love that Tyreek side too. Interesting enough, many I’ve talked to and a few league mates feel the other side has the advantage. 

It’s not PPR. Which I’m not even sure makes a difference here. 
 

But I’m convinced Patterson and Deebo will not sustain what they have going on. But I have no data to back that up. So I feel it’s a double sell high for a guy that has as much upside as anyone in the league in Hill.

Pitts and Kittle are sort of a wash depending on who you think can start producing and disregarding draft capital.

 
Deebo Samuel caught 7-of-11 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 against the Colts.

The yards and targets were both teams highs. That's nothing new for Samuel, who accounted for 43% of the 49ers’ receiving yards going into Sunday night. Jimmy Garoppolo didn't even attempt to throw it to anyone else, with fill-in TE Charlie Woerner finishing as the team's second leading receiver. Samuel has three 100 yard games and double digit targets in 4-of-7 weeks. He gets a matchup with Chicago in Week 8. 

Oct 25, 2021, 12:26 AM ET

 
Deebo Samuel caught 6-of-9 targets for 171 yards in the 49ers' Week 8 win over the Bears.

Samuel has been one of the biggest breakouts of the season, and he continued firing on all cylinders against the Bears with 171 yards. His biggest highlight was an 83-yard catch-and-run in which he was inches away from scoring a touchdown. Samuel is a WR1 for Week 9 despite a matchup with a Cardinals secondary that has been surprisingly strong this season.

Oct 31, 2021, 5:04 PM ET

 
I've been beating the deebo drum for years (just look at the thread) and the biggest knock on him has been soft tissue injuries.  He had a healthy off-season finally and now everyone sees who he is, a dominant YAC WR.

 
Coach Kyle Shanahan said Deebo Samuel emerged from the Week 8 win over the Bears with a calf injury.

Shanahan said Samuel will be limited in practice this week. He's coming off his fourth 100-yard game of the season after shredding the Bears for 6-171 on nine targets. Samuel has a Week 9 date with the Cardinals on deck. He went 3-58 on nine targets against them with Trey Lance under center in Week 5.

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter

Nov 1, 2021, 6:55 PM ET

 
Deebo Samuel (calf) did not practice Wednesday.

Samuel aggravated his existing calf issue against the Bears last week but is still expected to play this Sunday against the Cardinals. He's emerged as an every-week WR1/2 as the clear focal point of the Niners' passing offense.

SOURCE: David Lombardi on Twitter

Nov 3, 2021, 3:51 PM ET

 
Deebo Samuel (calf) was on a stationary bike to begin 49ers practice on Thursday after being listed as "DNP" Wednesday. 

It is possible Samuel got more involved in the session after the press departed, but another "DNP" is looking likely. Samuel has been managing the issue since last week, and he erupted for 6/171 in Week 8. We would assume he will be out there against the Cardinals, but fantasy managers can't yet take his status for granted.  

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter 

Nov 4, 2021, 3:32 PM ET

 
Deebo Samuel (calf) was officially "limited" in Thursday's practice. 

The assembled 49ers media guesstimated that Samuel was going to get in another DNP after he was on a stationary bike for the portion of practice open to the media, but he ended up doing enough to get a participation tag. This is actually the same routine Samuel followed last week, so it's unclear if anything actually changed with his health in Week 8. We are comfortable treating him as a top-five wideout for Sunday's game against the Cardinals. 

SOURCE: Matt Barrows on Twitter 

Nov 4, 2021, 6:48 PM ET

 
Not sure where to put this...

I traded Gaskin + Boyd for Deebo in my 12 team ppr league. In case anyone was looking at what value he may have.

I had RB depth (Gaskin hasn't played for me all year) but Boyd was my disppointing # 3 WR. Deebo slides into my #2 slot with Tyreek at #1 and DJ Mooree down to #3

 
Not sure where to put this...

I traded Gaskin + Boyd for Deebo in my 12 team ppr league. In case anyone was looking at what value he may have.

I had RB depth (Gaskin hasn't played for me all year) but Boyd was my disppointing # 3 WR. Deebo slides into my #2 slot with Tyreek at #1 and DJ Mooree down to #3
How

 
There is no premium, if the dynasty rankings I'm seeing online are to be trusted.

WR22 according to FFToday.

WR24 according to FantasyPros.

WR28 according to FBGs.

WR31 according to CBS.

These are incredibly conservative, tepid rankings for a guy who finished WR31 as a rookie, with a strong surge in the second half.

He's on a DJ Moore/Tyreek Hill/JuJu trajectory, yet people have him ranked behind physical mediocrities like Lamb and Jeudy who haven't played a snap in the NFL. It's insanity. Deebo was not picked super far behind those guys, brings a much more elite physical skill set with 4.4x speed on a yoked frame, and has already proven to be a playmaker at the NFL level. He had 17 receptions of 20+ yards on just 81 targets, for a big play % of 21.0%. I'm not sure you can find another NFL WR who was similarly explosive on a reasonable target load last season. Julio was behind him. Tyreek was behind him. Godwin was behind him.

One argument is that he had a fluky season and will need a higher target load to hit the same totals. The counter point is that he's a special player whose stats will only increase as his volume improves. The debate in this thread is eerily similar to conversations on these boards about Tyreek Hill from a couple years ago where people are not giving the player enough credit for his latent upside, operating under the faulty assumption that he can't be much more than what he already is.

I agree with voiceofunreason though. If you can truly get him for a WR25-WR30 price in dynasty, you're effectively buying him at his floor. The ceiling is much, much higher than that, so it's an extremely appealing price point if you can actually swing it. I can't speak for all Deebo owners, but personally you're paying a top 10-15 WR price if you want to get him from me because I think that's closer to his true value.


I've gotten plenty of things WRONG the last few years, but this wasn't one of them.

If there's a lesson here, maybe it's to emphasize efficiency stats vs. raw production. Going all the way back to Roethlisberger's rookie year, this is something that's occasionally stood out to me as a market inefficiency. People with low targets/attempts, but high efficiency can be undervalued simply due to usage. Not to make light of the situation, but Ruggs was another one until his recent situation.

The per-target or per-attempt darlings don't always scale when they get more work, but often times it's a sign of special ability. Russell Wilson was another one. BIG rookie year from an efficiency standpoint, but not from a raw numbers perspective. Once the attempts went up, he blew up and become a top guy.

 
Deebo Samuel is absent from the 49ers' Week 10 injury report. 

Samuel was touch and go with his calf the past two weeks, but he never missed game action. He avoided setbacks in Week 9 and is now ready to rock for a season-on-the-line Monday evening game for the 49ers against the Rams. Jalen Ramsey isn't shadowing receivers this season, but he will undoubtedly see a heavy dose of Samuel. Even with Ramsey looming, Brandon Aiyuk getting more involved and George Kittle back in action, Samuel remains a WR1. 

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter 

Nov 11, 2021, 6:56 PM ET

 
Deebo Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and one touchdown and rushed five times for 36 yards and a second touchdown in the 49ers' Week 10 win over the Rams Monday night.

Samuel was a one-man wrecking crew in this one, handling a career-high five rushing attempts and scoring on one of them from eight yards out. Coach Kyle Shanahan's game plan was clearly getting the ball in his best playmakers' hands, and Samuel made the Rams pay time and again with big carries and crucial catches on third downs. He made a ton of grabs in traffic and bounced off defenders, showcasing his world-class after-catch skills. Samuel's 40-yard touchdown catch on fourth down in the fourth quarter was the final nail in the coffin to put San Francisco up 31-7. Samuel now has 100-plus total yards in six games this season and has settled in as an every-week WR1 ahead of a Week 11 date with the lowly Jaguars.

Nov 15, 2021, 11:10 PM ET

 
Niners receiver Deebo Samuel goes off against Rams once again

Deebo Samuel's star shined bright on Monday Night Football, as the YAC demon ate the Los Angeles Rams alive, powering the San Francisco 49ers to a 31-10 home victory.

Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and scooted for the cherry-on-top TD score on fourth down early in the final quarter. He also added five carries for 36 yards and an 8-yard TD. The third-year pro powered his way through the Rams defense, leading a domineering offensive effort from the Niners -- reminiscent of their 2019 Super Bowl run.

"We just know what we're capable of," Samuel told NFL Network's Steve Wyche. "I'm mad it took this long, but we had to put all the pieces together and re-evaluate the team because we all know what we're capable of."

Samuel showed his beastly ability, powering through tackles. The 25-year-old generated 58 yards after catch Monday night. According to Next Gen Stats, he was expected to earn 12 yards after the catch on his five receptions. Deebo earned a whopping 46 yards after catch over expectation.

"That guy, especially when we played the Rams, maybe that's the mindset part, but when we play the Rams, Deebo always comes out ready to roll," Jimmy Garoppolosaid.

Samuel's ability to take a 3-yard catch and turn it into 7, 12, or 15 helped the Niners move the chains and churn the clock Monday night. Kyle Shanahan's offense converted 8-of-14 third downs and 1-of-2 fourth-down tries, including Samuel's game-sealing TD.

"We were just on it all week this week," Samuel said of the big third-down conversion. "We know we've got to convert on third down in order to keep the offense on the field and just build more energy, so we put an emphasis on that all week, and we just went out there and capitalized."

While the Niners' offense has ebbed and flowed all season, Samuel has been one of the most consistent players in the NFL. His 50-plus receiving yards in each of the 49ers' first nine games of the season matches only Dwight Clark in 1982 and Clifton McNeil in 1968 in franchise history, per NFL Research.

Samuel is averaging 115.2 scrimmage YPG this season, third in NFL and most by a WR (had 133 scrimmage yards in Week 10 -- 36 rush, 97 rec).

"I mean, it's a unique talent, just durability of the guy, the route running ability, the mental capacity, just to keep everything in his head that he has to do on a week-to-week basis," Garoppolo said of Samuel. "It's really impressive. I mean, the dude can play multiple positions and he's earned everything he's gotten."

Following Monday night's performance, Samuel has earned more attention for being one of the most unique and productive wideouts in the NFL.

 
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Deebo Samuel (groin) is expected to "miss a little time."

Samuel, who will undergo further testing on the groin injury that kept him sidelined during the second half of the 49ers' Week 12 win against the Vikings, avoided "a major injury," according to Rapoport. The Niners will be as careful as possible with the unstoppable centerpiece of their offense; Samuel drafters should be prepared to be without their stud offensive weapon for at least Week 13. Samuel's absence wouldn't create a target vacuum as much as it will open up carries for Elijah Mitchell and the team's running backs. Samuel has logged 20 rushing attempts over the past three games, including six for 66 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota's shoddy run defense. A fully healthy Deebo -- who has a history of soft tissue injuries -- for the fantasy playoffs would give Deebo drafters a massive boost in their championship pursuit. 

RELATED: 

Brandon Aiyuk

, Elijah Mitchell

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Nov 29, 2021, 12:18 PM ET

 
Not surprised at all.  :doh:

When he comes back I hear Shanahan is going to make him the primary kick and punt returner too since he gets way too many injuries playing WR.

 
Not a bad report so far and I doubt further testing will reveal anything more.  At least I hope not and he's ready for the fantasy playoffs.

 
Coach Kyle Shanahan said Deebo Samuel (groin) is expected to miss 1-2 weeks.

Samuel will miss next week's game in Seattle, but the Niners hope to have him back for Week 14 at Cincinnati. Samuel is dealing with a groin strain. He has just two catches over the last two weeks for 27 yards but has handled more of the rushing work with 14 carries for 145 yards and three scores on the ground. His playmaking skills will definitely be missed against the Seahawks. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell will have to pick up the slack. Jauan Jennings also figures to be an every-down wideout.

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter

Nov 29, 2021, 6:47 PM ET

 
The next two 49er games are on the road against SEA and CIN. SEA is a burning dog right now, but never pet a burning dog. CIN's opponents have scored a total of 23 points in the last two games, while they have scored 73 points (!).

 
Missing one to two weeks with a groin injury usually means the injury was non contact related since the boys weren't pulled by hands.
I don't play for that team, but if deebo keeps going as he's going I'd pull his boys for him if that's what he wants.

 
The next two 49er games are on the road against SEA and CIN. SEA is a burning dog right now, but never pet a burning dog. CIN's opponents have scored a total of 23 points in the last two games, while they have scored 73 points (!).


Should I be concerned?

 
The next two 49er games are on the road against SEA and CIN. SEA is a burning dog right now, but never pet a burning dog. CIN's opponents have scored a total of 23 points in the last two games, while they have scored 73 points (!).
Too soon man.

 
Deebo Samuel (groin) was ruled out for Week 13 against the Seahawks. 

Samuel was always expected to miss this game, so the injury designation is not a surprise. With Samuel sidelined, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle should see more targets, and Elijah Mitchell will not watch a handful of carries go Samuel's way. All three are good fantasy options this week. 

Dec 3, 2021, 4:43 PM ET

 

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